Archer

I thought Cash saying 4 elims might have been an elim slip, but I think that distro is so unlikely that it's probably a misunderstanding. I would like to raise the possibility of two elims though. Consider which faction each facet of the rules benefits: Night Kill: Unlikely to be blocked, unless a C1 vote shift catches them unawares. This is elim favoring. Returned: Anchors the PM network, which is pretty village favoring. Win Conditions: Heretics win by outnumbering the Priests, which is more village favoring than simple parity. Because of Lovers, a 2:2 vote that exes an elim makes them lose, as opposed to turning into a 1:1 coinflip round. Ties decided randomly: I know from previous discussions with Drake that he finds this village favoring. High Priest: To start C3, they learn whether one pair’s alignment matches. This is actually improved by the death of a previous target because it turns into a reliable role scan. Every subsequent round, they get another lead to presumably pass on to the Returned to announce. Assuming effective PM usage, they should be able to avoid the exe, making dodging the NK their main concern. Odds are they’re NKed C4, giving us intel on three players. Obviously village favoring. Pretty village favoring overall, huh! Game Complexity: For simple games, Drake likes a 15-20% ratio, if I recall correctly. 2/12 is 17%, 3/12 is 25%. I don’t think this elevates to the complexity threshold that necessitates a higher elim ratio eg. 25% (because gimmicks make it easier for elims to be caught). Under normal circumstances, my initial assessment would be that 4/12 (33%) would be too high a ratio to make sense. Wild Card: High Priest could be an elim. So, Our Distribution Options: Two Elims: This undermines the village advantages by playing into their assumption that High Priest is a villager. E!High Priest scans their teammate C1, a villager C2 that they’ll NK to solidify the read on their teammate, then C3 they’ll fake a red scan. That means C4 is a mix, setting up C5 that is 2v:2e, with an obvious lie to reckon with, making the outcome a pure coinflip. I don’t love that the best they can do is force a boring C5, but I think if they play this any other way, there will be too many ‘village’ scans or their teammate will be under pressure as an unscanned to make winning plausible. I’ll note that this set up is also highly volatile. Three Elims: The many village advantages are countered by the higher than preferable elim ratio. I think a bold e!High Priest could easily win in this distro. Pull the same moves as above, plus have the ability to sacrifice a teammate. If it’s a v!High Priest, I thing the game balances relies on them dying early, which is a better assumption to make than the village figuring out e!HP. Four Elims: I started this writeup expecting to make a case for four elims being plausible, if counterintuitive, but I don’t think it is. The village advantages are plentiful with v!HP, but a voting bloc of four elims could brute force their way through the first two rounds (subtly C1, then hammering C2), getting to parity at the same time the HP gets their first piece of information. Conclusion: I think three elims is more likely, but I think two is well within Drake's range. So be wary of trusting High Priests.

Doesn't FNG imply it's an act? Kas is also around during rollover, which is a point against making him Returned. Can you run me through your distro balance thoughts, considering the weird rules?

The scenario I'd envision would be e!TUA (who doesn't mind a good early game gambit) deciding you were likely going to be village read regardless of a formal flip, and this method gets rid of your vote, so if it takes off, he gets credit from you for suggesting it, and he kills a villager instead of an elim today. I'd probably still just NK you, but it could be a nice hedge. I'm mostly just sus of people wanted to kill a villager today. I'd rather best case we kill an elim, worst case we get a villager read that would have been hard to acquire. I'm aware PMs are a precious resource, that's why I wanted you to use yours if you wanted the answer. :P. I feel like there was a missed opportunity to make them Breath themed. Add that to the patch notes. I'm not disputing that, I'm just reading it as an elim wanting to avoid being sussed for what they see as bad reasons. Are you assuming four? Why?

It's such a busy thread. At least we have PMs! Hm. I don't like how self conscious this post is. An excuse for being late and a joke about themselves seems evil hyper aware. Kidpen. Raven Only thing I wanna know is why he pinged you. That rang slightly performative.

I'd rather someone else got the role. They said they were leaving after that. I'd return (haha pun) to them later if warranted. *looks for white text* "Clearly I am not of sufficient Heightening to see your hidden message." *disappointment* "And repeat after me! Your life become.... Wait that won't work since I'll be the one saying it first." "General Consensus is away fighting a battle. Uncertainty is all we are left with. And I'm okay with that." Soo. I should keep my vote on you? :3. Pretty sure the last two elims become lovers, so killing one makes the other die. Now to read all the ninjas.

Shh I can invent reasons. In response to this you said: Which was an early fold. You seem conflict adverse, RBM * "Phewie! Your Breath stinks." The guard continued to block the doorway with his shield. Double, true to his name, doubled down. "If I were you, I'd swap it for another one. I'll let you offload it onto me, for a price." "Move along." "You've seen though me! I'd do it as an act of charity." "You must remain until the investigation is concluded." Double sighed. "Fine. You have a deal. I'll catch the killer and you give me your Breath. No take backs!" * And an SE welcome to you, Kidpen! The D1 exe makes 'killing' folks more palpable, so I have no reservations today.

Royal Bee Mage

I think I can sneak this in before spring classes. I'll play as Double the drifter, known elsewhere as Double the grifter. @DrakeMarshall to clarify, the victim of the D1 exe can't make a PM after becoming Returned?

On the one hand, a member of the jury has already shown favoritism towards me, so I'm objectively the best choice On the other hand, I'm on haitus for the indefinite future as I work to acquire an expensive piece of paper So I must decline, but I appreciate the nod

TJ! We talked about the flipless games! >:(. I feel like going 2/3 on exes to start the game should never result in a loss C3. Definitely leaned too far on the balancing imo. We had some ridiculous reads from Stick and Drake that were wasted. I wish the vote hadn't landed on me because those two were great bait if it came down to Contact hunting. But gg elims, full credit to ya. Re: what I asked TJ: basically threw a lengthy recap of the rules and accidentally said some things in that weren't correct but he didn't catch them. On me for not asking clearer questions Neil, why'd you give me Fae first? I was struggling to justify voting for them

Nope , although I felt like getting to Fae was a stretch Looking like Neil was the Informant huh. That sucks edit: gg

No, the way it works is if I am exed and the game doesn't end, Sart turns around and exes the Informant. Even if we exe Sart next round, the Insider remains alive, giving them the win. Exe me and we lose. Exe Sart (specifically them because that's at least guaranteed) and you get one shot at the Insider. Edit: just my luck this is the one round no one logs on for rollover

You're just gonna stay online for the rest of the round, huh, Sart. :P. Ironically, I actually think you think I'm the Insider and are trying to help me. Annnyway. It’s claim time! I am the Contact. The names I received are Fae, Sart, in that order. (There’s a test we can pull off where the Informant sends me either a repeated name or their own, and I can declare which I got, but odds are it won’t matter because we’ll both be NKed in short order). If I die today and the game continues, Sart kills the Informant and we lose to the living Insider. So please vote Sart. Sorry to have to do this. Actually no, it's your fault. :P. But seriously, I know this gives Sart the chance to NK me, but I need the Informant to corroborate and people to change votes, which means unideal timing.

I mean, if the Informant is still alive, you have the chance to do the funniest thing. :D. I'm gonna make this more clear, I asked TJ some questions that we interpreted differently, and therefore started C2 with a faulty understanding of the game that wasn't corrected until Stick pointed out the issue.

that does look bad Without getting too into the weeds of it, I thought I knew how the rules worked, then I had developed a different understanding of how the rules worked. Which I have since learned was wrong