Alvron Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 20 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Everyone welcome @Archer to the game, he is stepping in to replace Devotary. Welcome @Archer. I'm suspicious of you because you used to be Devotary. I know their playstyle much better than yours but I will be watching. @Devotary of Spontaneity I hope whatever pulled you away from the game as such short notice is resolved quickly and in a positive manner. Quote Ngl I kinda want to clear Alv for this >> Don't do that Mat. I have purposely misread and/or misinterpreted rules when evil before and I will likely do it again. One of the easiest things to get village cred is to make a mistake about the rules and have others correct you as it makes it look like you only read your part/role and boom almost instant villager.
Stick. she/her Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 Reads on players that I didn’t have in my post last turn: Shadow: Elim - starting the turtle counter wagon as an elim makes sense to me because I know it was v/v. If all elims simply hopped on my existing train, the lack of resistance would’ve looked suspicious so a counter wagon was needed in any case. TUN: null+ I’m also moving Wiz down to null+
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 1 minute ago, _Stick_ said: TUN: null+ Not that I'm complaining, but any reasoning?
Illwei Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 ILLWEI'S PROCESS (i'm a little sidetracked through writing this if things seem misplaced lol) Planning for tomorrow Maybe this should be the last part of this post, but I'll start off with it. Tomorrow we should be going in with 15-16 people, and I'm going to take the safest assumption and assume there's five (5) elims left. This means that - assuming no coinshots - we have three (3) more misexes available. So going into tomorrow, I would like everyone to try and have a list of eight (8) people (yes, this is basically half the playerlist, especially with yourself removed) that they think the elims are within. This involves finding 7 villagers (or 6, depending), which i get is a lot of people for me to ask you to trust. Pt 1: Partnerships In big games I have a hard time getting a foothold in the game and reading people, because although a lot of my reads are at the micro level (post to post) a big part of it comes from the game as a whole being- who's driving it, where are they going, how do the people interact together, ect. Things that you normally see while spectating because you're not in the game and distracted and therefore have a more holistic view of everything. So basically if it looks like my reads are all over the place (yes I'm talking about my xino read) then thats the reason. Right now I've just been trying to look and see if I think people are connected, so I'm going to start there with those thoughts. Despite there being like 100 posts both cycles I don't have much here still. for the new players: this strategy is often terribly inaccurate in general, and it involves going through thread and assuming everyone is an elim. I'll read the things they post and react to and specifically look at how they interact with certain players. Once i collect all my thoughts, my theoretical partnerships will be weighted the least when trying to assemble likely teams. Spoiler Matrim Wizard Conq TUN Shining Cinnamon JNV Shadow Archivist Silver Danex Xino Archer Bookwyrm Alv Stick Matrim Wizard Conq TUN Shining Cinnamon JNV Shadow Archivist Silver Danex Xino Archer Bookwyrm Alv Stick There's probably some more things I could find, but I have more things to do, and especially more things to do before rollover. I'll talk through a few of these though, since there's not time for me to talk through everything before tomorrow. Stick: not paired with Mat, TUN, Shadow, or Danex. - Stick was the first person to vote Matrim. She also hasn't been scared to put more questionable people (read, debatable) in her villa list (Bookwyrm, Danex, Me). Perhaps this is all her simply calling us town because we are, and her TMI is not allowing her to call Matrim town. Then again, mat is a interesting person to pick for an immediate sccumread right into D2, with little to no? warning beforehand in C1. - TUN is more simple, Stick tied him with Ash on D1 with all other wagons at 1. I do think this holds less weight since i have not looked into how the wagons all dismantled until about 2 hours before EoD. I'd love to look but tracking votes takes a few hours for me, especially to get everything into a system that i feel i can actually look at it. - Stick is one of the only people imo that respond to Shadow's V claim with nothing. not like, ignore nothing, but a "thanks!" which is...well. Wierd, but in my mind not at all how someone approaches a partner. Matrim: not paired with Silver, Stick, or Bookwyrm - Stick is talked through, since that's basically one-sided. I used to only include things if they happened from both sides, otherwise i'd only mark them down once, but i'm lazy now and even if I'm wrong i want somewhere to stand. - Silver is another simple one. He was Mat's poke vote at SoD1. This doesn't hold much weight but mat switching off of him came really easily. - Bookwyrm is here because even though Mat slid off of Silver easily, it was seemingly because of shade that bookwyrm dropped on him. this one is the weakest because silver voted Ash and not Matrim, and simply left mat some form of warning. Most recent and not listed on the Chart: Alv/Mat. if you set something up in thread with a partner it's almost always to to try and either townread them, or get village cred. Maybe both. Alv actively telling mat not to village read him for not knowing the rules is more likely unpartnered because of this. if they were teamed alv would be denying a townread from a teammate. Denying townreads is something people read as villagery but in this case regardless it makes them more likely unaligned. Pt. 2: Micro Reads Normally I work almost exclusively in micro reads the first few days, because it makes it easier than having to try and see some sort of big picture. These are similar to partnerships because I'm going off of specific posts and oneliners. Again, I'll try to go through as much as I can before it's tomorrow, but right now I'm pretty much grasping at straws trying to pull out 5 people i think are pretty villagery. then tomorrow I'll try to work and pull 2-3 more people out. for newer players: I'm not talking about exclusively gut/vibe reads, as those are usually more of a gateway into an actual read, and not a micro read themselves. I'm talking about looking at a single post (usually a small one, not something like a readslist) or a specific action that a player has made, and justifying it from one perspective or another. If you read something and something feels off that's one thing, but what you're trying to do is identify the intentions made behind the post, if there are any. Shining: Quote TUN Seems like an obvious attempt to blend in I mentioned this yesterday, but I'll say it again that i think this post is one that makes Shining more village. Shining starts the game with "first" and TUN responds "second", and so Shining votes (albeit a starting vote) TUN for "blending in." this at the very least implies comfortability with the thread (not neccesarily AI) but also some level of themselves being the normal-being village. Stick: Not a specific post that I'm going to both posting, just the action of voting mat at SoD2. Coming in with a "I'm going to reread D1" and then immediately going in with a vote on one of the most vocal players at the moment isn't something I see an Elim without a strong support team doing. (therefore this read crumbles if the elims are all vocal, or more townread.) Stick almost died yesterday, and there would have been safer paths for an Elim to take than diving in headfirst at Matrim. Bookwyrm: Quote Because the main reasoning for the e!Xino theory is based on their actions in previous games, I don't really have enough evidence to make a conclusion. However, what I do have is the fact that one of the three people who was on the Xino train at the end of D1 was Ashbringer, who we now know was a villager. And Xino was one of the people who voted for Ashbringer, who, as I just said, was a villager. It's not much to go on, but I think it's enough that I could reasonably argue that they're an elim. (EDIT: I just re-readN this paragraph and I realized that it barely made any sense. Believe me: It makes a lot more sense in my head While this doesn't neccesarily show a deeper level of thought- honestly it's pretty surface level throughout, but i like the parenthetical. flimsiest reason so far, and i don't really believe it lol. but the edit is villagery because of how much thought is typical of an elim to go into their messages. to post that (theoretically without rereading) and then to go back in and say the same thing about multiple people. JNV: Again no quote gonna go here, but it's his readlist. not the content really, but how he elaborates on Matrim and not really on anyone else. this both implies to me that there was actual thinking going on about matrim. Archer: This isn't an Archer read, there isn't really anything to read archer on right now. I do think that Devo was more likely village than not, even though I am going to go back to read Kas's post again (i find the formatting hard to dissect). The read on Devo is pretty much based on her unvote at EoD. it's not something i really see Devo doing as an elim because of course people are going to wonder about it and ask about it. -- Cinnamon Quote after some deliberation: Mat I went through, and found and evidence against them, flimsy at best, laughable at worst. Also re reading his posts now they don't seem elim, just like someone trying to stay alive and also I did not realise that the post I quoted earlier was a joke . I still stand by my stance on Wiz though. this is....for sure a post. I keep coming back to it, because i feel like it has something. my first question is @Cinnamon what do you think the difference is? why would a post seem elim to you, since elim isn't a feeling, an emotion, a motivation, a type of sentence. so what in a post would make you think it's from an Elim? you say instead it looks like he's trying to stay alive. That is, honestly, one trait of Elims. Villagers want to solve the game, and elims want to stay alive. sometimes they overlap but if it looks like someone is purely motivated by trying to survive then they're perfectly fine to mark down as a suspicion. I want to call this post village for the unvote and implied turnaround. I can't though because that's silly because it's an NAI post. so I keep coming back to it and hoping it gives me something more. Quote These two posts both are quite strange to me. I understand firsthand that RL can get in the way of things. You even mention you have quite a lot of things on your plate at the moment, which I totally get. But using the "I forgot" argument twice. Seems quite doubtful. Please correct me if I am incorrect, or have misstepped in any way. I will go ahead and call this villagery for the silly argument that saying "i forgot" twice is suspicious. Also a flimsy read. Where does that leave me at. Matrim - I don't think i can call him town. I think there was some things with him v. Kas (maybe barely) but I might be misreading that. again, like devo, something i need to go back and look at tomorrow. Wizard - I like that they specifically say that they're trying to change up things to a degree, but I also think that they were obvious village in the other games I've seen them in and until i see that again I can't call them village. Conq - Honestly this is mostly because conq is not here. Conq is easily findable, aggressive, and involved. Or at least he has been. For him to drop off so much and basically come in here to only be like "wow...that's off" is. well. off. TUN - though i think so many people who have interacted with him come out looking more villagery, he still doesn't. He was also the Cw to Ash in the early bits of D1 (for 0 reason basically, but still) and that died out incredibly fast and for no real reason. I'd love to hear why people think that he's town. Shadow - Honestly it's an activity thing. I acknoledge I haven't seen a village game from her, but I can't just brush aside that she would have killed kas, because I was thinking it before she said anything. The real question there then - what would a team look like where they give shadow the kill? because she's new to the site as well as low activity. Archivist - Nothing here, legitimately. lol. Silver - again, I have nothing. Danex - his words feel forced this game, but really, nothing. these three are my legitimate nulls. Alv - I want to call him village for his most recent interaction with mat, as well as i agree he's less likely to make the Kas N1. but until i get solid reasoning he stays in my PoE. I'm hoping one of these people dies tonight, honestly lol. that would make my life easier. Again, If anyone has reasoning for anyone being town that I don't have I'd love to hear it- same with anyone i have as town that they don't agree with. if you want to disagree with me by going "i don't think your argument for them being town holds up" in any way then I'm not interested in hearing it. Not because I don't think it has validity but because if i make a read on someone to be village it's something that I've thought about already and don't care to hear "no you're wrong" without a different reasoning being provided as to why you think so. Pt. 3: Voting [To be Continued....] 2
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Author Posted October 28, 2022 Hold! Stop PMing and changing your orders! Night is over, day might take a bit.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Author Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) Nobody knew much about Riven, which made it rather hard for the Spiked to track him down. The small band of cloaked figures wandered the mist-filled streets of Tyrian Falls, keeping their eyes peeled for their quarry as they approached their next strategic target in the city. Riven wasn't an Allomancer. But unlike most people, he was glad of the fact. Liked things simple, he did, and the metallic arts were anything but. He figured that finding the Spiked was a simple matter of posting guards at key points in the town, and since Hadrian didn't have enough men to go around, Riven had volunteered himself. Unfortunately for him, the group of Spiked came upon him and slit his throat before he could call for help. ;eyes; blinked. She'd been patrolling with Riven, a few feet back, when several hooded figures loomed from the mists behind him and he dropped to the cobbles with a soft grunt. She immediately called for help, turning to find an alley to escape into. Flared brass staggered the pursuers for a moment, but one of their member made a visible effort of will and the Spiked regained their balance, turning to make chase. Suddenly multiple sprays of coins shot from above, aimed haphazardly at the entire group. ;eyes; felt several impacts in her gut as she was slammed to the ground, and one of the hooded figures, the one that seemed to be a Rioter, appeared to have been hit as well. Her last sight was of the Spiked fleeing into the night, the body of their companion slumped in the mist-wet street nearby. Here's a Tineye message: Quote Way things've been going, looks like I'm the only Tineye still runnin' messages. Don't rightly want to think about what'll happen when I'm gone. People do some mighty strange things when they're locked up in their own minds. _Stick_ (;eyes;) was a Village Soother! Alvron (Riven) was a Village Vanilla! The Wandering Wizard (Too Big Dancer) was a Spiked Rioter! Day 3 has begun, and will end at 5PM EDT on Sunday the 30th. There is a 1 vote minimum to exe a player, with ties decided randomly. PMs are open! Player List: Spoiler @Matrim's Dice (Adam) Ashbringer (AraRaash) Village Mistborn The Wandering Wizard (Too Big Dancer) Spiked Rioter @Conquestor (Simeon Venture) @The Unknown Novel (Edven Tyrian) @Illwei (The Best Destroyer) @Shining Silhouette (Terrific Birthday Disaster) @Cinnamon (Evenlyn Royale) @JNV (Atelos) @shadow1 (Shadowblob) @The Aspiring Archivist (Thoughtful Book Dude) @Just a Silvereye (Felix) @dannnnnnex (Terrible Breath Dispensation) @xinoehp512 (Tiny Bearded Dwarf) @Archer/Devotary (Ora) @The Bookwyrm (Rylim Libran) Turtle (Tortoise By Day) Village Vanilla _Stick_ (;eyes;) Village Soother Kasimir (Koren) Village Smoker Alvron (Riven) Village Vanilla Quick Links: Spoiler Day 1 Night 1 Day 2 Night 2 Edited October 28, 2022 by Araris Valerian 7
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 Coinshot vs elim kill? @Araris Valerian
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Author Posted October 28, 2022 Just now, The Unknown Novel said: Coinshot vs elim kill? @Araris Valerian RAFO 3
Illwei Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 I'm going to assume that Alv was the coinshot. Could be an Elim mistborn, or could not. Stick dying makes sense but I was hoping it wouldn't happen. Matrim
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 So Stick and obviously Wizard were the Coinshot kills, that was way harder than it should have been for me to figure out.
Illwei Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 Just now, The Unknown Novel said: So Stick and obviously Wizard were the Coinshot kills, that was way harder than it should have been for me to figure out. Why is alv the elim kill and not Stick?
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: Why is alv the elim kill and not Stick? Because the kills are differentiated in the writeup proper, and it says Alv was killed by Spiked.
dannnex male Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Illwei said: Why is alv the elim kill and not Stick? it's revealed in the writeup. Riven was killed by the spiked, other two were killed by "multiple sprays of coins shot from above" edit: ninjad by TUN Edited October 28, 2022 by dannnnnnex
Cinnamon Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) Death, there was just so much death. I had still been stewing over Derrick when I heard about Drying. Everyone was dropping like flies and there was nothing I could do about it. That should have made me upset, driven me further into despair. But no. People WERE going to die, no matter what. We just had to make sure it was the right ones. That’s why when I heard of the full extent of the massacre last night, I told myself I should be pleased. Yes, :eyes: and Riven were dead, but we had found a Spiked. Finally, that was worth the cost, right? Finding this Spiked was a huge step in the right direction. We would be able to study the body, as well as learn about the type of people the spikes were targeted at. Also, there was moral support. Killing this monster had hugely boosted the confidence of the town. Everyone had a new spark, a new fire burning in them, a desire to see this through. — Some psycho had found the body of the monster and strung it up in the town square. It was a sickening sight but no one seemed to be able to look away. I looked at the body and suddenly was reminded of another body driven through with spikes, Casper, and I couldn’t help but feel an immense surge of pity for it, no . Not “it”, him. This monster had been a person once before he’d become Spiked, they all had. A person just like me. Just like all of us. Thy still had to die though, that was the only way to make sure everyone was safe. Edited October 28, 2022 by Cinnamon Formatting
Illwei Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 Whoever killed Stick needs to claim. This is because you shot a villager. Yes people might try and kill you for it but there's good reason, because you shot a villager who wasn't in the immediate PoE, or at least shouldn't have been because of her actions. More likely this is an Elim mistborn who made this move. Going into today I'd like to look at the stick voters in particular because not only did she flip village, but basically all of the votes were for her voting without giving explainations. I might be biased here in my thinking but that's a towny move because when you're able to avoid suspicion it's easy to. but when you're villaging you're not worried about avoiding suspicion. it's not a 100% obviously, but it's a partial. I'd also like for myself and hopefully some others to look through not only wizard's posts, but all mentions of Wizard and come up with some conclusions based on that. By looking at how people treated wizard vs. all the flipped villagers we can try to get an idea of who his teammates are. I'll start off with saying that with Stick dead Xino's Village equity rises- he had some moments where if stick wasn't his partner he would have put himself in strange situations that he didn't need to. I still believe that Archer is village based on Devo's actions And I want to townread TUN, so if anyone has any reasoning why i should be I am very open to it.
Cinnamon Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Illwei said: Whoever killed Stick needs to claim. This is real risky but… I killed stick. I’m a village coinshot and I said I wanted to kill Wiz, but I was rioted and my kill moved to stick. I know this does not seem believable because Wiz still died, he was the only spiked known and I previously expressed my V reading of Wizard but it is true . I do not see why anyone would make up a lie that would likely put them up for lynch while also revealing their alignment so please believe me I meant no harm! well actually I did mean harm, but not to Stick!! I have further proof that I am the coinshot. In a RP I said: “someone had even left a couple clips on the sidewalk next to me, … I pocketed the coins, they would be useful to me.” I put that in as an Easter egg to allude to my roll. It was kind of a joke that I hoped people would find after my death. My character is a disgraced (fairly rich) noblewoman what use would she have for a couple clips besides allomancy? I spent the last day reading and rereading old posts trying to pick someone to kill, and I eventually landed on Wiz. I didn’t want to voice my suspicions, so nobody would suspect me of being the coinshot or mistborn and kill me for it. Edited October 28, 2022 by Cinnamon pleasedontkillme :(
Archer he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) Edit: My apologies for the state of this post. It originally included links to all of the posts, but the site won't let me put more than three in. I still have the links if you're looking for a post's origins, I'll just have to provide them by request. Anyway, after some patching and reposting, I am done editing this. None of my alignment leanings were proven wrong, so I'm going to post this thread trawl unedited. Enjoy. 1/ Looks like y'all made a rash decision killing Ashbringer. 2/ Quote JNV: I’ll save you the time then *does an ISO of themselves* Do the votes right now rub anyone else the wrong way cause like the leading train weve got culture shock retaliation and Kasimir and most of the votes are reasionless or jokes or nonsense …Im very pro RP theres banter which is also great nad funny and such and thats about it like were just sorta vibing and thats cool too ISOing yourself is taking your wellbeing far too seriously. Wanting a clearer idea of how the exe will shake out/wanting people to reconsider their votes that through dumb luck are on elims right now and listen to your seductive logic is scummy. 3/ Quote Cinnamon: Sorry about the retaliation vote Ashbringer. [Mat: were you unvoting them?] Oh, I wasn't trying to undo it, I just felt really bad because I didn't have any reason to vote them other than the fact that he voted for me. I didn't want to be mean. And also I thought it a bit of a silly reason to vote for someone but ... he was still a bit suspicious so I didn't want to retract my vote. This seems evil because they want to avoid attracting Ashbringer’s retaliation vote while continuing to camp on them. Their explanation undercuts any pressure Ashbringer might feel from the vote, so what’s motivating the vote really? Potential counterpoint: Question: do you have to vote? It seems that it is an optional thing, but I would have thought everyone should do it 4/ Quote Shining: Neutral (Different from Null in my mind) Kas - Seems to be having fun so far at-Kasimir why'd you vote Ash? He's now in the lead in the VC I think and potentially up for lynch. [Note, this puts him 3rd lowest on their list, just above their two elim picks] Similarly to JNV, Shining is focussing on who’s in real danger. Putting Kas so low indicates they’re okay with them dying, which might be why when, in theoretical elim doc discussions, exing him was seen as too difficult, e!they was cool with NKing them. Their post is also couched in ‘slight’ qualifiers, which makes backtracking for e!strategic reasons easier. 5/ Quote Bookwyrm: ...I'm changing my vote from Ashbringer to Kasimir. Partly as a retaliation vote, and partly because it's weird to change your vote like five times. Book: who should I vote for? Elim teammates: do a retaliation vote, no one will find it suspicious Book: HELLO THIS IS A RETALIATION VOTE 6/ Quote Shining: I have no idea why I voted Illwei last night. I wasn't feeling good about Wiz, but I just voted without much evidence. I'll take a look again later. Might change back to Illwei, but I realize that I didn't give it as much thought as I'd like to for my votes. Weird retraction given that D1 evidence standards are low, but I like that they changed their mind. 7/ D1 Xino and Book got very little support – having to self pres then rely on some unvotes isn’t consistent with the usually elim team strategy of place votes that push a safe exe for them. Shining-Xino not e-e since Shining tried to vote for them. Shining is the only person who showed any urgency, which could be e!indicative. Them and Mat are the only people hanging around near rollover that fit the elim profile in a v-v-v situation. By the way, Devo unvoting to try and get to an RNG decided exe is consistent with their playstyle. NIGHT ONE 8/ Quote Xino: ...Well shoot now I kind of wish I had been exed. Villager. Also e!Xino doesn’t kill pocketed!Kas. 9/ Quote Conq; Ummmmm, I'm lost for words. What happened last cycle??? I'll probably go look through it myself, but a quick update would be nice! I was super busy yesterday and then forgot about the game this morning, but I should be here and active for the rest of the time. Also, only half of the players in the game voted... what's up with that? Sus. Overreacts to death, laying blame (those pesky non voters!), wanted to be around near rollover like a good elim. 10/ Wiz: I also agree on the effort clearing Kas, because I once did it with e!Kas and it wasn't good. Would I lynch him? Probably not as v!Kas is a usefull village asset. But the possibility No, I most likely wouldn't, unless substanial evidence comes up. Contemplating Kas’ death for the reasons stated above is scummy. (Ha, Araris posted D3 literally as I wrote this. Called it.)11/ Quote Dannex: alright nvm i’m effort-clearing kas now vil!kas all the way JNV: besides like the thought of effort clearing someone is just kinda weird inherently like I know the ideal villager puts in effort and tries and stuff but just look at a normal villager that doesnt really happen effort is a way of life Danex: this is the strangest take i’ve ever seen, especially coming from someone who just said that perma clearing kas based on gut made sense Village points for making a bold read of Kas shortly before he’s NKed. I agree with the take on JNV. 12/ Quote Shadow: I also find Turtle's tone off . That and some other posts read as nervous to me. It's a tonal read so hard to explain but it seems the most off of anyone today Elims need to press sometime, and this turned into a mix. Worth criticizing. 13/ Came across a Wiz reads list but I’m going to leave their posts for an ISO later. 14/ Quote Just a Silvereye: Wizard defending Bookwyrm mid-D1, then voting him now, then unvoting him, also makes me think Wizard and Bookwyrm are not both elims. Really? Because that says scripted distancing to me 15/ Quote Archivist: I sort of agree with Shadow that they haven't been contributing much and have been focusing a lot on their image. So sight elim lean there as well, maybe a little more than Mat because Mat has been making what at least look to me like positive contributions. I don’t believe an indecisive villager narrows in on the small sample of Turtle posts as their top sus. Sus. Note that Cinnamon also calls Turtle out. Shadow-Archivist-Cinnamon works as an elim team for me because they’re all null/sus to me. 16/ Quote Cinamon: I still stand by my stance on Wiz though. [Also I read Wiz as vill. I get the vibe, and for some reason I think he is the tineye. No solid reasoning though] Defender of Wiz 17/ Quote Mat: Fair warning I’ll probably move to Turtle if the VC stays as it is. I’d rather Stick not die, but I don’t have a super strong turtle read so I’ll stay on Cin for now. Given the flip, that’s a villager thing to say. No need for an elim to make waves. 18/ Quote Cinn: This is real risky but… I killed stick. I’m a village coinshot and I said I wanted to kill Wiz, but I was rioted and my kill moved to stick. Evaluating your own story makes me think it’s a lie. You don’t have to persuade when you’re telling the truth. Also I just quoted a line where you village read Wiz… TL;DR Village: Mat, TUN, Danex, Xino, Book Eh: Conq, Illwei, Silvereye, Elim: Shining, Cinnamon, JNV, Shadow, Archivist Original state of the post when the Shard ate half of it (don't read this, I just have to include it to comply with SE rules): Spoiler None of my alignment leanings were proven wrong, so I’m going to post this threat trawl unedited. Enjoy. 1/ Looks like y'all made a rash decision killing Ashbringer. 2/ https Quote JNV: I’ll save you the time then *does an ISO of themselves* Do the votes right now rub anyone else the wrong way cause like the leading train weve got culture shock retaliation and Kasimir and most of the votes are reasionless or jokes or nonsense …Im very pro RP theres banter which is also great nad funny and such and thats about it like were just sorta vibing and thats cool too ISOing yourself is taking your wellbeing far too seriously. Wanting a clearer idea of how the exe will shake out/wanting people to reconsider their votes that through dumb luck are on elims right now and listen to your seductive logic is scummy. 3/ https Quote Cinnamon: Sorry about the retaliation vote Ashbringer. [Mat: were you unvoting them?] Oh, I wasn't trying to undo it, I just felt really bad because I didn't have any reason to vote them other than the fact that he voted for me. I didn't want to be mean. And also I thought it a bit of a silly reason to vote for someone but ... he was still a bit suspicious so I didn't want to retract my vote. This seems evil because they want to avoid attracting Ashbringer’s retaliation vote while continuing to camp on them. Their explanation undercuts any pressure Ashbringer might feel from the vote, so what’s motivating the vote really? Potential counterpoint: Quote Cin: Question: do you have to vote? It seems that it is an optional thing, but I would have thought everyone should do it 4/ https Shining: Neutral (Different from Null in my mind) Kas - Seems to be having fun so far at-Kasimir why'd you vote Ash? He's now in the lead in the VC I think and potentially up for lynch. [Note, this puts him 3rd lowest on their list, just above their two elim picks] Similarly to JNV, Shining is focussing on who’s in real danger. Putting Kas so low indicates they’re okay with them dying, which might be why when, in theoretical elim doc discussions, exing him was seen as too difficult, e!they was cool with NKing them. Their post is also couched in ‘slight’ qualifiers, which makes backtracking for e!strategic reasons easier. 5/ Bookwyrm: ...I'm changing my vote from Ashbringer to Kasimir. Partly as a retaliation vote, and partly because it's weird to change your vote like five times. Book: who should I vote for? Elim teammates: do a retaliation vote, no one will find it suspicious Book: HELLO THIS IS A RETALIATION VOTE EDIT: Shard ate most of my post, please stand by Edited October 28, 2022 by Archer 2
Cinnamon Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Archer said: Book: HELLO THIS IS A RETALIATION VOTE I choked on my water from laughter when I read that! I have been dancing around with the idea of E!Bookwyrm, but a lot of his posts that might be e!indicative could also be chalked up to ‘new player nerves’ I don’t necessarily agree that Book is elim, your proposed scenario does seem quite likely. However, bookwyrm is new and it seems to me that if they were being coached they would have known they weren’t in danger day one and freaked out less. About what you said about me, yeah it was bad that I dug my heels in ash, but I thought to detract your vote you had to put it on someone else and I didn’t know who I would change it to. It was very strange though so I understand your suspicions
Illwei Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cinnamon said: I choked on my water from laughter when I read that! I have been dancing around with the idea of E!Bookwyrm, but a lot of his posts that might be e!indicative could also be chalked up to ‘new player nerves’ I don’t necessarily agree that Book is elim, your proposed scenario does seem quite likely. However, bookwyrm is new and it seems to me that if they were being coached they would have known they weren’t in danger day one and freaked out less. About what you said about me, yeah it was bad that I dug my heels in ash, but I thought to detract your vote you had to put it on someone else and I didn’t know who I would change it to. It was very strange though so I understand your suspicions Hey cinnamon, what's your head at right now? can you give me 3 village reads and 3 Elim reads off the top of your head?
Mat he/him Posted October 28, 2022 Posted October 28, 2022 Oh wow huh 1 hour ago, Illwei said: Whoever killed Stick needs to claim. Do you think whoever killed Wiz should claim too? I'm kinda 50/50 about it personally, like it'd give us a clear but a clear is just an elim target :P. I suppose there's less danger now that the elim Rioter is dead. What do you think of Cin's claim? Because this is what I find interesting: In D2, Cin reads Wiz as vil with no explanation, just vibes. Which is fine. Later in the turn, Cin reiterates the v!Wiz read. Cin never mentions Wiz again, and now claims that out of the entire player list he was the one they thought was the best to go for. Like... I guess it's possible Cin reread things and changed their mind but that would be a complete 180 over the course of a day or less with no indication given, and that seems weird when Wiz was like the single village read Cin ever vocalized. @Cinnamon I'd appreciate you summing up your thought process of how you went from v reading Wiz to trying to kill him in the space of hours. 1 hour ago, Illwei said: Going into today I'd like to look at the stick voters in particular *votes me, who voted turtle specifically to save Stick* I'll respond to your post made at the end of the night turn in a sec, but wanted to do the stuff from this thread first. Idk where the sudden burst of thread leader came from, but I like it
Illwei Posted October 29, 2022 Posted October 29, 2022 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Do you think whoever killed Wiz should claim too? I'm kinda 50/50 about it personally, like it'd give us a clear but a clear is just an elim target :P. I suppose there's less danger now that the elim Rioter is dead. I don't think that Wiz's shooter needs to claim. Unless they're about to die, it does no good besides painting a target on their back. @Cinnamon Also while you're at it (my last post) do you want to talk about why you chose to shoot Wiz? Who else were you deciding between? Why didn't you shoot anyone yesterday?
Archer he/him Posted October 29, 2022 Posted October 29, 2022 The way I see it, there could be a Rioter out there who can claim to have moved Cin's action onto Wiz. There's no incentive for an elim to make Wiz the target of anyone. If the Rioter claims, they should therefore be conf village - or Cin's teammate covering for them. Both are good datapoints to have. If no Rioter comes forward, we can only assume that Cin is evil. (If Rioter Wiz was the one who did it, they deserve the mix for being counter intuitive.) I'll go on record as having not been the Rioter.
Illwei Posted October 29, 2022 Posted October 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Archer said: If no Rioter comes forward, we can only assume that Cin is evil. (If Rioter Wiz was the one who did it, they deserve the mix for being counter intuitive.) What do you mean by this? who would have been being counter intuitive? It's possible for Wiz to have been a rioter and cin be vil.
Archer he/him Posted October 29, 2022 Posted October 29, 2022 13 minutes ago, Illwei said: What do you mean by this? who would have been being counter intuitive? It's possible for Wiz to have been a rioter and cin be vil. Why would Wiz ever elect to target themselves with Cin's mystery power?
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