Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Why would Wiz ever elect to target themselves with Cin's mystery power? 

No, Wiz would have redirected their power to stick.

[Archer he/him]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

No, Wiz would have redirected their power to stick.

Oh yeah. My mistake. Cin's claim is entirely unverifiable then, isn't it? 

*

JNV for the reasons listed in my longer post 

[Cinnamon]

Quote

I'd appreciate you summing up your thought process of how you went from v reading Wiz to trying to kill him in the space of hours.

Ahem …

I think the main reason I V! read Wiz was because I wanted him to be village because he is my shardbuddy and my friend and I wanted to believe we were on the same team. It was sort of a self fulfilling prophesy, I could only see what I wanted to see, not what was actually there. I even claimed I thought he was the tineye because I saw him mention graphs somewhere else on the shard (I was really grasping at straws here).

So I am a coinshot and I have been stressing about who to kill since D1. I didn’t kill anyone the first night because I was totally lost, but I promised myself I would kill somebody N2. I read and reread the older threads, evaluating the posts of people I thought were suspicious. (I will divulge those names soon) I literally spent HOURS looking through old posts, my PM  changing every 5 minutes, sitting unsent until two minutes before rollover. I eventually settled on Wiz because he had the strangest feel to me. His posts sounding weird and not Wiz-like, saying lots without really saying anything, claiming he was busy so wouldn’t post much, while still finding time for threads such as “the battle for the sandwich”? Very strange. He was the most concrete E! read  I had and even then I was still uncertain.

After I put in my action I received a PM from Araris telling me my attempted attack on Wiz failed, and was redirected to Stick successfully. It did not specify that I was Rioted but I inferred that from the role descriptions.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Hey cinnamon, what's your head at right now? can you give me 3 village reads and 3 Elim reads off the top of your head?

Sort of …? I was making a read list to post last night, but I didn’t because I didn’t want anything connecting me to whoever I decided to kill.

Note Orange text equals input from future me.

Wiz:  @The Wandering Wizard 
okay, so you confuse me. I did just say that I thought you were V!tineye but… I am having doubts. You kept saying things like 

Quote

I have some time to respond now, but I might not be on later.

Even though you continued to be online on the forum games. And when you were questioned on you playstyle changing from previous v! games you kind of just avoided the question with a “maybe maybe not” kind of answer.

Quote

Yes, I'm not quite sure, but some blend of my usual and some of last game. 

I am now reading a quite heavy elim lean on you. Have you got anything to say?

JNV: @JNV

at first your posts we’re giving me V! especially your early D1 ones like your aversion to poke votes, however I might have just been biased on that point because I was poke voted myself. 
However your proving that you always disliked poke seemed strange and a bit unnecessary, it felt like something designed to  look like you were doing something important and contributing when you actually weren’t. You also have been VERY quiet which I find an E! thing to do, I wouldn’t engage as much of I was trying to be inconspicuous. I have even summoned you but you haven’t responded. Slight elim lean for you.

NOTE: It has just come to my attention that JNV has been offline since Thursday so something may have happened IRL for them or they forgot about the game.

Shadow: @shadow1 you claimed Vill pretty early on in the game 

Quote

I'm a villager if yall are trying to solve and that's helpful to know.

and I am inclined to believe you but… you have been lying low because of your “long lost friend” thing and an early village claim seems to me that it would be a great tactic especially if it was immediately accepted by a ?teammate?

Quote

Thanks!  - Stick

 I feel that the intended effect of that would be to establish it as a ‘fact’ that you are a villager which everone takes for granted. Possible e|e team?

all that said, I don’t believe a word of it, I think you are V!

Stick: @_Stick_

Villager all the way. I know I just entertained the possibility of you being e with shadow, but I don’t believe it for one second. All your posts have been giving me all the right vibes, and you were super nice and I immediately liked you in our PMs, it’s possible that you were just buttering me up to get me on your good side, but I doubt it. Stick is village, you can fight me on that.

I was right!

Bookwyrm: @The Bookwyrm

phew… so you, you are a case! I’ve been looking through and wow. Your posts are just so elim, but almost all of can be explained by the “ I’m new” argument. I’m going to say slight elim for you. Just because of your newness. Also there is a strong feeling that you are being coached some posts. Feel free to defend yourself ( with something other than “I’m new” please)

Mat: @Matrim's Dice

I am getting a chasmfiend sized pile of mixed signals from you. You started off slight vill then your vibes just were off N1 and the first half of D2 but now I am getting vill again. Are you wording things weirdly? I just don’t know I am going to put you as null for now.

Alv: @Alvron

I am leaning towards vill, mainly because of  this post:

Quote

Don't do that Mat.  I have purposely misread and/or misinterpreted rules when evil before and I will likely do it again.  One of the easiest things to get village cred is to make a mistake about the rules and have others correct you as it makes it look like you only read your part/role and boom almost instant villager.

Why would they do that if they were elim, why not just leave it alone? Quite strong v! For them.

TUN: @The Unknown Novel
I can’t get a read on you and its really bugging me. You seem quite joke-y and laid back, others think your V but you just feel a bit off. I’ll say null with a slight v lean.

Conq: @Conquestor 

Slight Vill don’t know why, just the vibes.

— 

that is all I had , I still agree with almost all of it.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

@Cinnamon Also while you're at it (my last post) do you want to talk about why you chose to shoot Wiz? Who else were you deciding between? Why didn't you shoot anyone yesterday? 

 

Why I shot wiz explained above  

I was deciding betweeen JNV, Mat, TUN, bookwyrm and Wiz.

Yesterday I had no reads on anyone and didn’t want to risk killing a Villager, I had no clue about anyone and I was still hesitant bc of my mistake with ash. I chose to last night because I thought it would be super boring if only the lynch died and I thought (correctly) that I would have a better read on everyone by then.

42 minutes ago, Illwei said:

No, Wiz would have redirected their power to stick.

Yes that is correct, I said that I wanted to attack Wizard but my power was manip.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Cinnamon
Used blue text

[Illwei]

@Cinnamon

1) Blue text is reserved for talk about real life: outside circumstances that you can't avoid that will have an impact. we try not to use it though.

2) Can you try again? I don't want to hear specific reads you had last night, just your top 3 and bottom three. NO explaination needed

Matrim    Conq    TUN    Shining    Illwei    JNV    Shadow    Archivist    Silver    Danex    Xino    Archer    Bookwyrm

 

[dannnex male]

7 minutes ago, Cinnamon said:

Sort of …? I was making a read list to post last night, but I didn’t because I didn’t want anything connecting me to whoever I decided to kill.

This feels convenient. "oh yeah, i had a reads post but I didn't post it, here it is, and look! all my reads were right! that means i'm vil!"
Who's to say you didn't just write all that up now?

7 minutes ago, Cinnamon said:

(I will divulge those names soon)

I'm confused. Is this in reference to the reads list in the second half of your post? Do you have a more updated list? Who would you peg as an elim, right now, this second?

edit: ninja'd by illwei

Edited October 29, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[Cinnamon]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Cinnamon

1) Blue text is reserved for talk about real life: outside circumstances that you can't avoid that will have an impact. we try not to use it though.

2) Can you try again? I don't want to hear specific reads you had last night, just your top 3 and bottom three. NO explaination needed

Matrim    Conq    TUN    Shining    Illwei    JNV    Shadow    Archivist    Silver    Danex    Xino    Archer    Bookwyrm

 

1) whoops I didn’t realise, will edit now

2) yup

top  3 elim

JNV, bookwyrm, mat, 

top 3 vill

shadow, conquestor, dannnnex

[Illwei]

Cinnamon claimed coinshot who shot stick

Spoiler

@Conquestor @JNV @The Aspiring Archivist @Just a Silvereye @shadow1 @xinoehp512 @The Bookwyrm

If none of you are going to counterclaim that, then we are going to treat cinnamon as if they are a village coinshot. We'll talk about who we want cinnamon to shoot in the night cycle, but we should not let that fact eat up discussion if none of these people counterclaim the shot on Stick.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, Cinnamon said:

Are you wording things weirdly?

Not… intentionally… :P.

1 minute ago, dannnnnnex said:

Who's to say you didn't just write all that up now?

I would be legitimately shocked if that were the case

I sympathize with Cin’s putting-the-read-they-want thing and I think I’m okay effort clearing that post unless anything else comes up. Like, as a new elim, lying about a Coinshot role under pressure, then putting that out? Coaching can help a new elim, but not to that extent. If this is e!Cin I don’t want to like underestimate their elim game cause I’d feel bad and also that won’t help us win but all I’m saying is I’d be very impressed :P.

That being said I do want to look at my og e casing of Cin cause I don’t want to discredit that entirely

[Cinnamon]

6 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

This feels convenient. "oh yeah, i had a reads post but I didn't post it, here it is, and look! all my reads were right! that means i'm vil!"
Who's to say you didn't just write all that up now?

I'm confused. Is this in reference to the reads list in the second half of your post? Do you have a more updated list? Who would you peg as an elim, right now, this second?

edit: ninja'd by illwei

Um yeah I guess that seems sus, but you just take it as you will.

those names were the bit at the end in response to Illwei question (Her second one)

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Cinnamon claimed coinshot who shot stick

  Hide contents

@Conquestor @JNV @The Aspiring Archivist @Just a Silvereye @shadow1 @xinoehp512 @The Bookwyrm

If none of you are going to counterclaim that, then we are going to treat cinnamon as if they are a village coinshot. We'll talk about who we want cinnamon to shoot in the night cycle, but we should not let that fact eat up discussion if none of these people counterclaim the shot on Stick.

What's up with that list of names? Why only those people.

[Illwei]

Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

What's up with that list of names? Why only those people.

That's everyone who hasn't checked in today yet. I just wanted to make sure someone didn't skim and miss it.

 @Cinnamon why do you think Shadow is V? in your post all you say is that you're inclined to believe her claim of being village, but in that comment you basically talk about all the reasons to doubt?

Matrim what is your world looking like right now?

[Cinnamon]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Cinnamon why do you think Shadow is V? in your post all you say is that you're inclined to believe her claim of being village, but in that comment you basically talk about all the reasons to doubt?

The way shadow talk seemed V to me. 
 this post

Quote

Sorry @Turtle for basically saying I don't like the way you talk and then starting a poorly justified wagon against you because of it. I feel kinda bad.

seemed genuine and their response  when I pointed out they claimed vill was

Quote

I stand by it, too! 

Also their use of emoticons doesn’t feel like they are trying to change the tone of their message to seem more positive, it seems like they are a happy person just cruising through the game, in my eyes it just makes them seem vill.

 I was pointing out the flaws in my argument so that people would see that this was more of a gut feeling than a read with proof.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Cinnamon
Add paragraph at the end

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Matrim what is your world looking like right now?

On mobile and haven’t backread since mid-D2, but off the top of my head my PoE would be like [JNV, shadow, Silvereye, dannex] with the next tier being [TUN, Conq]. Though that second group isn’t where I’d go today.

1 minute ago, Cinnamon said:

Also their use of emoticons doesn’t feel like they are trying to change the tone of their message to seem more positive, it seems like they are a happy person just cruising through the game, in my eyes it just makes them seem vill.

Elims can be happy cruising people

That’s my favorite way to be an elim  

[Archer he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Not… intentionally… :P.

I would be legitimately shocked if that were the case

I sympathize with Cin’s putting-the-read-they-want thing and I think I’m okay effort clearing that post unless anything else comes up. Like, as a new elim, lying about a Coinshot role under pressure, then putting that out? Coaching can help a new elim, but not to that extent. If this is e!Cin I don’t want to like underestimate their elim game cause I’d feel bad and also that won’t help us win but all I’m saying is I’d be very impressed :P.

That being said I do want to look at my og e casing of Cin cause I don’t want to discredit that entirely

I was thinking that, theoretically, e!they'd know Wiz submitted no action and then they'd have the opportunity to cover their Stick shot by claiming a redirect but it'd be better for them to just remain anonymous if they worried about the optics. I'm inclined to read the speed of the claim and the look of that pre write as being signs of honesty. At the very least, they're a bad discussion point past this initial phase because they're not going to be read in a meaningful way, it's more about the odds of the coincidence occurring.

Not a fan of their elim reads though. Book clearly got hung out to dry and had no team support. Mat moved their vote around unnecessarily for an elim, among other things. 

And by the way, wanting to avoid making enemies is an elim tell, not a villager one. 

Anyway, if JNV is offline I'll direct some attention towards Shining. JNV Shining

[dannnex male]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

[JNV, shadow, Silvereye, dannex]

can y'all make up your mind for me please
some people are strong vil on me and some are strong elim
like, some consistency would be nice

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I would be legitimately shocked if that were the case

me too, it's called pressuring. 
I think i agree with illwei, cin likely vil coinshot. i'm not treating them conf vil though.
edit: barring no counterclaim ofc

Edited October 29, 2022 by dannnnnnex

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, dannnnnnex said:

I think i agree with illwei, cin likely vil coinshot. i'm not treating them conf vil though.

I don't believe that they're village wholeheartedly, I am saying that it's best for thread if we act like they are village for now.

[dannnex male]

Just now, Illwei said:

I don't believe that they're village wholeheartedly, I am saying that it's best for thread if we act like they are village for now.

I'm not sure what the difference is but ok

this post reads like forced distancing to me
like illwei knows cin will flip elim and has to cover all the bases
so now i'm suddenly considering illwei/cin e/e and am reeling from that possibility

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

like, some consistency would be nice

Your death would accomplish that :eyes:

[shadow1 she/her]

Matrims dice

Bad vibes tbh

 

 

 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, shadow1 said:

Matrims dice

Bad vibes tbh

How eloquent of you

[dannnex male]

3 minutes ago, shadow1 said:

Matrims dice

Bad vibes tbh

i don't exactly disagree but c'mon, it's D3, surely you have something more than just bad vibes
or can you at least cite something specific he said that gives you bad vibes?

Edited October 29, 2022 by dannnnnnex
ninja'd by mat

[shadow1 she/her]

@dannnnnnex yeah it's really not based on a ton, they just seem to be trying to overexplain to the point of convoluting, or setting things up too carefully.

Also maybe sus of illwei today but idk

 

[JNV]

Hm alvrons a weird kill like no one was really complaining about them but no one was diehard trusting them a shapr turn from the Kasimir kill and I guess I can see it cause people were kind of throwing suspicion everywhere but I feel like there was enough of a general consensus of trust on like silhouette nad maybe kind of xinoehp that Im not entirely sure why theyd go for Alvron wh ocould have been an emergency scapegoat or something 

I didnt get a chance to get on in the night so heres looking at the votes from d2

Stick votes Matrim no reason giveni niitially but justified as seeming stiff and inorganic in later post

Wizard votes Bookwyrm for seeming coached  

Bookwyrm votes xinoehp fro... voting a villager? 

Vookwyrm retracts xnioehp upon receiving the slightest pushback if you cant tell from the tone this is a raised eyebrow sorta thing 

Wizard retracts Bookwyrm for not seeeming coached

Bookwyrm votes Cinnamon for apparently the same rasoning as for xinoehp which is just gah and like everything about Bookwyrms tone hits wrong 

Silvereye votes Stick for a lot of blank votes and like fair but also like copout much but also lik Stick gives reasoning later and the vote stays so definitely more of a copout than an actually sincere vote which gets an eyebrow

shadow votes Turtle for trying to seem like theyre solving without actually solving anything with the note to self posts but does say its more gut than sense

Archivist votes Turtle and 'agrree with shadow' which is a little concerning considering shadows thing is gut and whatnot and theyve just been repreating stuff more than providing original thought

Cinnamon votes Matrim for reasons that aparnetly exist but I cant really telll what theyre saying

Illwei votes xinoehp to  'sort things out' which is the only thing sounding the alarm bells about Ilwlei like I like the contributiosn I like the reads I like everything but this one vote 

Wizard votes Stick for a really weird cheap reason of accidentaly mentioning Wizard as a person they didnt have a read on and simultaneously agrees about the Matrim read and notably this breaks the Stick Matrim tie in favor of killing Stick and like I could be confirmation biasing my way into a tunnel but just look at it

Alvron votes Devotary for retracting that vote at the end which is in the elim playstyle for her apparently

Cinnamon retracts Matrim cause the reasons were flimsy apparently wish I really knew what they were

JNV votes Matrim for a really strange reads construction around xinoehp D1 and like this is my view I dont think Ill be able to extricate any objective reasoning from this

xinoehp votes shadow for saying they would have killed Kasimir which is like honestly shadows a good elim I played with them evil theyre really smooth they wouldnt do that

Novel votes Stick for not answering questions and I guess they just didnt read the reads post

Matrim votes Cinnamon for weird progression and votes not alligning with stated opinions oh and by the way yes I originally started the post as just justifying my vote on you but decided hey whiel I have the time might as well do an overview post of all the players just in case Im overthinking it but yeah also checking changes between your reads lsits for verification purposes leanvs elim on Wizard but says apparently everyones been v reading them which really hadnt noticed Conquestor gets bumped down to null after low activity Illwei bumped down to null- because of opinions changing on xinoehp constantly shadow got slight village after actually showing up reads Danex village for some reason not reall ysure vllage reading xinoehp for the circumstances nothing rteally too hmm there but I dont know maybe its just my brain 

Novel unvotes Stick for finding that reads post

Silhouette maintains the tie and votes Bookwyrm to 'turn up the temperature' 

Danex votes Stick saying agree with what others have said which amounts to one vote which has bee nsatisfied rasons wise and one vote that was nosnense to begin with but honestly not sure if theyd throw two evils on the same train but notably breaks the 4 way tie so hmm like if Matrim or Bookwyrm flip evil take a second look sorta hmm

xinoehp votes Turtle I think to save Stick

Illwei votes Stick to save Turtle 

Stick votes Turtle to save Stick

Matrim votes Turtle

 

I think Im feeling like the tiniest bit better about Matrim maybe possibly cuase I like their progression a bit on the ones they changed a bit on but Im not entirely sure why that makes me feel better but also like the evil broke the tie in Matrims favor for wierd reasons which is a bit eh and I think teh reread just made me feel more weird on Cinnamon 

 

Wizards posts 

D1 first post is just a joke I mean could be distancing with Bookwyrm doesnt really come off like that next post poke votes Turtle post after trying to pass off changes as intentional in an interaction that doesnt feel partnered with Silhouette so that reinforces my village read of Silhouette and then they unvote Turtle to just 'sit' which implesi a lack of elim urgency D1 whicg makes sense wide spread ties lot of nothing I woudlnt expect them to feel particularly threatened which kinda inforces my vilalge read of xinoehp

N1 first post says dont effort clear Kasimir which is like I dont really see the point of this post 

D2 really a bad attempt at being upset at Kasimirs death reads list so they lean village on Cinnamon which hmm considering the so called evidence is a list of the things I kinda suspect Cinnamon for then votes Bookwyrm then unvotes Bookwyrm later then the Stick vote which is a really bad vote and like I dont see them doing this if they dont care see the whole D1 tie which makes me think theyre actively invested in Matrims life but like I feel like theyre also the type of person whod think 'oh I caught a lie here thats good' and just vote there even though it doesnt make any sense 

N2 Technically takls but doesnt really say much

Basically I feel more certain about trusting Silhouette and xinoehp slightly better on Bookwyrm Im feeling worse on Cinnamon and just more confused on Matrim

 

Now the issue with this cinnamon read is now Im just confused about their claim and its midnight here and Im tired so Im going to sleep Ill check in tomorrow the weekend maybe Ill have more or better thoughts then and if someone else killed Stick please please please speak up Im trying to justify this in  my head

[Cinnamon]

Hmm does anyone else find it strange that JNV only voiced their suspicions for me after I did the same for them openly in two places?

NVM I just found this

Quote

Cinnamon

Theyve talked but they havent really said anything at all but I really dont like their reasoning for voting Matrim and oop update from future JNV they did retract which makes me feel something not sure exactly what but something

Whoops.

I still think that it is a bit weird though and because of previous suspicions I am going to place my vote on them. JNV you officially have my vote. 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Cinnamon
Added quote and vote

[Throw TheLiving Silverware he/him/il/lui]

Here are some reads, to answer Illwei's question:

 

Village: Xino, Conquestor, DevotArcher

 

Elim: Bookwyrm, Cinnamon, and (much, much less sure about that one) Mat

 

Honestly, Bookwyrm's and Wizard's interaction in D2 felt genuine to me when I first read it, but the more I think, the more I think it was staged. Especially knowing Wizard was spiked. Bookwyrm