Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 31, 2022 Author Posted October 31, 2022 ~50 minutes left to get your actions in!
Throw TheLiving Silverware he/him/il/lui Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 I was indeed looking at the thread at EoD, but I didn’t felt I had much more to add to the discussion. And at that moment I was better off with my vote on Bookwyrm than anyone else in the VC. Anyway, reads list time! I don't have the time to reread the threads so I'm going by memory and general feel here Matrim: Honestly not sure; changing their mind at EoD minus 30 seconds feels more villagery to me. Plus, they'd have to be teamed to Silhouette, who (whom?) I read village. So you're sliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight village Conquestor: I don't remember seeing them doing much, and they apparently haven't logged since several IRL days. I have no idea of ttheir alignment. You probably won't ever read this, but I hope you're well. Null The Unknown Novel: Voting the GM feels more of a village move to me (wouldn't an elim have better and more eligible targets ?) Sliiiight village Illwei: Trying hard to find the Coinshot, not as much (seemingly) to find the elims... Slight elim. Silhouette: Between your total confusion EoD1, and all your active research, I put you at Extremely strong village. Cinnamon: I don't know how to read the whole "I accidentally killed Stick" thing. Coming and bringing attention like this doesn't feel elim to me... but at the same time painting that big a target on your back isn't village. Mild elim. JNV: A bit similarly to Conquestor, they have only sparsely logged in for days now. Posting long reads list at daytime but not voting for any of your suspects triggers some alarms to me, so Slight elim. Aspiring Archivist: Not very active so not much to go from; kinda gave the flimsy Turtle train some speed after Shadow starting it? Slight elim. dannnnnex: Not much to go from, at least for me.Null Xinoehp: Very close to the fire D1, no one really tried to actively defend you. Strong village Archer: You sound to me just like a villager trying hard to find the elims. Rather strong village. Bookwyrm: I keep flipping back and forth on you; I still don't understand that Wizard thing D2 but on the other hand it's true you were close to be killed more than once and your supposed teammates did not blink. I'll leave you at Deeply confused. Illwei and Cinnamon are probably not teamed imo. Which is contradictory because I read you both as elims, but whatever. Depending on who here sees next sunrise, I'll vote Cinnamon, Archivist, JNV, or Illwei tomorrow. (I will certainly sleep by the time D4 is posted, so don't expect me before 8-12h into the thread)
Illwei Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 Matrim Conq TUN Archivist Silver Danex This is where me PoE is at, roughly. Not ordered, so if i were to pull people out of it it would probably be Danex and TUN, but don't quote me on TUN yet. You can quote me on Danex. 42 minutes ago, Just a Silvereye said: Illwei: Trying hard to find the Coinshot, not as much (seemingly) to find the elims... Slight elim. I'll quote this If anyone cares to read it, maybe you didn't see it because it was posted so close to rollover. it's my post from last night. Not sure how much I stand by right now.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 31, 2022 Author Posted October 31, 2022 Tiny scurried through the mists, his message bag slung over a shoulder. The men, women, and mistwraiths of Tyrian Falls were notorious gossips, and due to both his small size and allomantic ability, they relied on him to deliver their secrets throughout the night. The part of his job that Tiny enjoyed best was drawing graphs. Each night, once all the missives were sent, but before the dawn's light began to disperse the mist, he would find a nice wall and draw some wonderful charts detailing the previous day's discussion. For a while he'd used the side of Dyring's Inn, though he'd known it annoyed the innkeeper. Hadrian's manor was too fancy to have nice, flat walls anywhere, and most of the other townsfolk lived in shorter buildings. The inn though, had a wonderful flat edge reaching both stories that faced the street, so everyone that passed by would see his work. Of course, the inn was gone, and even the one remaining wall had collapsed sometime the previous day. That was why Tiny found himself in an alley adjacent to the town barracks. The wall of the building rose up higher here, perhaps for some storage space within. Tiny unfolded a ladder and began painting his latest masterpiece. As Tiny signed off on his work, he heard a crash and his feet lost their purchase on the ladder. Flared tin gave him sight of several people that had snuck up while he was distracted, and then everything went black in a flash of pain as his head struck the ground. Quote My time runs short, but I am not yet dead. Atelos was on watch in the barracks when he heard the crash out back. Rushing out the door, he discovered the corpse of Tiny, and turned into the darkness, squinting to see if the killers were nearby. A cry suddenly pierced the night. "Murderer, you killed Tiny!" Atelos began to protest but a volley of coins shot from the mists, dropping his body alongside that of Tiny. When dawn broke, not only were the two bodies found, but a significant portion of the weaponry stashed in the barracks was found missing, presumably taken by the Spiked before the murder of TBD. xinoehp512 (Tiny Bearded Dwarf) was a Village Tineye! JNV (Atelos) was a Village Vanilla! Day 4 has begun, and will end at 5PM EDT on Wednesday the 2nd. There is a 1 vote minimum to exe a player, with ties decided randomly. PMs are closed! Please welcome @Whysper as a replacement for Conquestor! Player List: Spoiler @Matrim's Dice (Adam) Ashbringer (AraRaash) Village Mistborn The Wandering Wizard (Too Big Dancer) Spiked Rioter @Whysper/Conquestor (Simeon Venture) @The Unknown Novel (Edven Tyrian) @Illwei (The Best Destroyer) @Shining Silhouette (Terrific Birthday Disaster) @Cinnamon (Evenlyn Royale) JNV (Atelos) Village Vanilla shadow1 (Shadowblob) Village Tineye @The Aspiring Archivist (Thoughtful Book Dude) @Just a Silvereye (Felix) @dannnnnnex (Terrible Breath Dispensation) xinoehp512 (Tiny Bearded Dwarf) Village Tineye @Archer/Devotary (Ora) @The Bookwyrm (Rylim Libran) Turtle (Tortoise By Day) Village Vanilla _Stick_ (;eyes;) Village Soother Kasimir (Koren) Village Smoker Alvron (Riven) Village Vanilla Quick Links: Spoiler Day 1 Night 1 Day 2 Night 2 Day 3 Night 3 5
Illwei Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 Wish people would stop killing my village reads. Would be nice. Matrim We're at what is probably 7 v 4 right now. Which means that tomorrow we will be at, at worst, well, lost. worst case scenario we lose tomorrow. so think about that, ok guys ? I haven't had the time to go back through things yet, but with xino and jnv now dead I'm practically out of strong townreads.
+Whysper she/her Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 Hello everyone I've reviewed the game a bit and will try to post later tonight. I need to leave soon for some Halloween activities, but hope to have time tonight. This was my quick list from Villager to Elim that I put together as I was reviewing ahead of time. Villager Whysper Archer The Bookwyrm Just a Silvereye Matrim's Dice Shining Silhouette dannnnnnex Illwei The Aspiring Archivist xinoehp512 (dead now) JNV (others read as Elim?) (dead now) Cinnamon (new?) The Unknown Novel Elim
Illwei Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) I'm too tired of this so I'm going to go ahead and Claim. I'm the one who shot wiz, that's why I cared so much that the coinshot claimed. Last night I was a lurcher and protected myself, N1 i was a tineye and did nothing. go ahead and call me an Elim if you want to lose the game. EDIT: also yay whysper <3 Edited October 31, 2022 by Illwei
Archer he/him Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Whysper said: Hello everyone Hi. Sorry, I'm having trouble hearing you, would you mind speaking louder? Quote My time runs short, but I am not yet dead. Can't decide if this is the funniest part of the post or if you outing yourself as the lowest poster is. :P. 2 minutes ago, Illwei said: I'm too tired of this so I'm going to go ahead and Claim. I'm the one who shot wiz, that's why I cared so much that the coinshot claimed. Last night I was a lurcher and protected myself, N1 i was a tineye and did nothing. go ahead and call me an Elim if you want to lose the game. Can someone remind me if Illwei having rolled Tineye once affects the odds of them being a Tineye again in the near future? The obvious question is why'd you kill Wiz? Then the obvious conclusion is, you killed an elim! Thanks! Not sure why you aren't revelling in that more. Anyone want to counterclaim? E!Mat kinda makes sense if you postulate e!Books. With v!JNV, I'm getting to the point where I'm struggling to come up with a plausible conspiracy. Team Silvereye-Archivist-Conq wouldn't be fielded by the GM. Also, with two village mistborns and a village coinshot, the elims would have to be packing some good roles.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted October 31, 2022 Author Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Archer said: Can someone remind me if Illwei having rolled Tineye once affects the odds of them being a Tineye again in the near future? Yes. The exact mechanic is that I roll a d10. On the first roll, I reroll any previous picked role plus 9 and 10. After that, I just roll a d8 and keep that result. 1
Illwei Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, Archer said: The obvious question is why'd you kill Wiz? Then the obvious conclusion is, you killed an elim! Thanks! Not sure why you aren't revelling in that more. Anyone want to counterclaim? honestly I went through a lot of changes lol which i will probably post in the aftermath, but as I quoted in the last cycle, i had worked my way down to that PoE. The whole reason i made that post was I was trying to force myself to figure out who to kill. I also wanted to look at the lower posters because those would be the hardest to sort. I think mat is an Elim but I didn't shoot him because he's one of the more active people and therefore theoretically easier to actually vote off. I originally was going to target xino, for the sake of clearing up the wagons, but i townread him so i couldn't do that lol. I then thought about danex, mostly because of him being a low poster, and then switched to matrim, and then back to danex because of the reasons i mentioned before. then i decided i townread danex to a degree and was flipping between archivist and wizard. (wizard, again, for reasons mentioned before, in my post) and well basically what i was doing with all the lowposters was i was submitting their names in my PM and then immediately going and looking through their posts and trying to convince myself i was wrong for shooting them, and the person i felt least wrong on was Wiz.
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted October 31, 2022 Posted October 31, 2022 I'll miss PMs... Rest in peace Xino Well now we know for sure the D1 train was V/V. Looks good for Devo/Archer I'd like to look at <Danex, Archivist, TUN> Archivist
dannnex male Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 Alright, i wanna look at the potential elim team comp we had an abundance of newbies this game, so I'm inclined to think there's at least 1-2 on the team. probably not more than that though, since NKs so far have been mainly on more experienced players. Newbies wouldn't know who the more experienced guys are, so at least one veteran must be guiding them. But back to focusing on the newbies, the ones remaining are Cin, Archivist, Silver, and Bookwyrm. I have to believe that at least one of them is elim, so that's the pool I'm gonna focus on. Ranking them from vil to elim, I have Cin, Silver, Archivist, Bookwyrm I'm reading Cin as vil for all that coinshot stuff earlier. Silver and Archivist are tied pretty closely at null, but silver has been a bit more active iirc, so bonus points there Bookwyrm is my best guess rn. they've been tied pretty closely to TWW, and I really haven't liked some of their votes.
Archer he/him Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 I suspect Danex chose to look at the remaining rookies because doing the inverse analysis implicates them. No GM tries to stack their team with fresh faces; they prefer to play a disproportionate amount of experienced players. I’m a consensus clear. Illwei is cleared for killing Wiz. Cin is cleared for admitting to being a power role in a situation where the elims had no incentive to reveal the information. No one has volunteered any role-acquired information, so while we can guess the elims have a Mistborn and maybe a Lurcher? (and possibly a Seeker for the lols), it doesn’t do us much good. So for the sake of argument, let’s guess one elim among the rookies: Silver, Archivist, Bookwyrm, but ignore them for now. That leaves a pool of Mat, Whysper, TUN, Shining, and Dannex with about two elims in it. I’m also more inclined to go this route because Illwei and I have been clearing most of those players, and we’re still alive. Killing Xino over say me was a good indication that we’re on the wrong track. I’m going to stick with my village TUN read out of begrudging respect for their approach – and the hope that an elim wouldn’t stonewall us like that. I can’t read Whysper off of a pre-write, but let’s chalk them in as a placeholder elim. This leaves a pool of Shining, Mat, and Dannex with at least one elim in it. Two of them have opted to vote for peripheral candidates today, which I expect is the elim gameplan. Here's a look at the vote tallies, with bold being my strong village reads, and purple being unknowns: D1 Ashbringer (4): Shining Silhouette, Cinnamon, xinoehp512, The Bookwyrm xinoehp512 (3): Matrim's Dice, Ashbringer, Conquestor The Unknown Novel (1): The Unknown Novel Matrim's Dice (1): Dannnnnnex Just a Silvereye (1): _Stick_ D2 Turtle (5): Mat, Shadow, Archivist, Xino, Stick Stick (4): Wizard, Illwei, Silver, Dannex Book (2): Shining, Devotary Mat (1): JNV Cinnamon (1): Book Devotary (1): Alvron D3 shadow1 (4): Matrim's Dice, Shining Silhouette, Archer, The Bookwyrm The Bookwyrm (2): Just a Silvereye, xinoehp512 Matrim's Dice (2): Illwei, shadow1 JNV (1): Dannnnnnex Mat's voted on a main mix every time. Shining has a similar record. Danex has sought out side wagons, which I find damming (not trying too hard to meaningfully pressure anyone). I'll give shout out side notes to Silvereye and Books for being fairly active. Mat has been around to shield Books if needed, which might explain the lack of a coordinated effort to save them. Dannex has also been around at EOD a lot - yet had little impact. Whereas Shining arrives at EoD and makes it known they intend to vote, which would also be a good elim strategy. I'd need to re-read to put any distance between my reads on any of these guys, but Danex's recent post pinged my elimdar pretty hard.
dannnex male Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Archer said: I suspect Danex chose to look at the remaining rookies because doing the inverse analysis implicates them. No GM tries to stack their team with fresh faces; they prefer to play a disproportionate amount of experienced players. Exactly, that's why I'm doing it. If i did the inverse, the pool would be too big and I wouldn't know what to do with it =P but in this exact case, we have so many newbies that I cannot see a world where none of them are elim. And that pool is much easier to narrow down.
Archer he/him Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said: Exactly, that's why I'm doing it. If i did the inverse, the pool would be too big and I wouldn't know what to do with it =P but in this exact case, we have so many newbies that I cannot see a world where none of them are elim. And that pool is much easier to narrow down. My undiluted pool of Mat, Whysper, TUN, Shining, and Dannex is the same size as yours if you remove yourself. If you agree that it's more likely the majority of the elims are in the experienced pool, your odds are better searching there because both pools have four people, from your perspective. I also think it's easier to narrow down because the members have bigger paper trails.
dannnex male Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Archer said: I also think it's easier to narrow down because the members have bigger paper trails. I don't That requires a lot of effort which I am too lazy to provide your whole argument against me rn seems weird like, its based off of how I chose to analyze the remaining pool which i think can just be explained by my playstyle. Like, I could have analyzed a different way, sure, but I didn't. i don't think that very alignment indicative. however, conclusions are. and I feel like if you actually looked at the conclusion I came to, it isn't flawed. at least, as far as I can tell.
Archer he/him Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 3 hours ago, dannnnnnex said: Silver and Archivist are tied pretty closely at null, but silver has been a bit more active iirc, so bonus points there Bookwyrm is my best guess rn. they've been tied pretty closely to TWW, and I really haven't liked some of their votes. Why does Silver get credit for being active while Books doesn't? Is the basis of your nulls activity levels? What's the difference between Silver and Books' votes? I'm entertaining a Mat-Book team right now, but I do recall mentioning that Wiz hung Books out to dry at one point. (Silvereye-Danex-Shining-Whysper is something along the lines of my larger team guess right now.) Quote we had an abundance of newbies this game, so I'm inclined to think there's at least 1-2 on the team. With a five person team, your 1-2 rookie guess means 3-4 experienced players. Taking out the experienced Wiz, you're looking at 1-2 elims in the pool of four rookies, and 2-3 elims in the pool of 4 experienced players. The odds favor selections from the latter pool. Quote probably not more than that though, since NKs so far have been mainly on more experienced players. Newbies wouldn't know who the more experienced guys are, so at least one veteran must be guiding them. What do you think the logic behind the kills has been?
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 My pool of elims is looking something like Da(n=n)ex, Illwei, Bookwyrm, and slightly Mat for being a consensus elim read that I read as neutral. Even though I agree with the end result, the way Archer is going after Da(n=n)ex feels a little odd, so toss them in as the same willingness to exe as Mat. Tiered: Illwei (Maybe equal with Bookwyrm) Da(n=n)ex/Bookwyrm (Da(n=n)ex preferred) Mat/Archer (Mat preferred) Archivist (almost true null, but I've gotten a slightly negative tone from a couple posts. Willing to chalk it up to newbieness though) I'll dismiss Illwei for now since they don't seem to be widely elim read. Da(n=n)ex voted for Bookwyrm and seems to be aiming for a mix on them, so not e/e. Out of those two I prefer Da(n=n)ex, so I think that's where I'll place my vote. Why are people v!reading Archer and Illwei exactly? I kinda get the feeling they're being effort cleared, which maybe for Illwei, but definitely not for Archer, and effort clearing isn't very good in general anyways.
Illwei Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said: Why are people v!reading Archer and Illwei exactly? I kinda get the feeling they're being effort cleared, which maybe for Illwei, but definitely not for Archer, and effort clearing isn't very good in general anyways. I'm the one who shot wiz.
dannnex male Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Archer said: Why does Silver get credit for being active while Books doesn't? Is the basis of your nulls activity levels? What's the difference between Silver and Books' votes? 1. Books can have a little credit, sure. But not even close to enough to outweigh all the scummyness I'm reading from him. 2. For those two nulls, yes. 3. None of Silver's votes have pinged me, but a few of bookwyrm's have. Specifically his vote on Mat that was pure 'vibes', where he then couldn't cite even a single sentence from Mat that felt off. Makes me think bookwyrm/mat e/e and that was a messy attempt at distancing. edit: forgot to actually read the rest of your post lmao, just responded to those first three questions Quote I'm entertaining a Mat-Book team right now Yes! Me too! We're on the same page! Quote Taking out the experienced Wiz, you're looking at 1-2 elims in the pool of four rookies, and 2-3 elims in the pool of 4 experienced players. The odds favor selections from the latter pool. Yeah but we aren't making votes randomly. As I already said, I found it easier to find the 1 elim in the inexperienced pool. And I believe I have. Quote What do you think the logic behind the kills has been? Same as you, seems like they're going for the more experienced players =P you said that in our PM in that same PM btw, you speculated a largely new player elim team why the sudden turnaround? Edited November 1, 2022 by dannnnnnex
Throw TheLiving Silverware he/him/il/lui Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 Hello, this is to inform you I now village read Illwei and Cinnamon. Illwei's late N2 post, that she linked right after my post last night, ruins my entire argument against them, and their claim this day is definitely villagery. For Cinnamon, I am pretty sure that her teammates would have shouted her "don't claim" in the doc. Plus, she would have killed someone N1 if she was an elim. Finally, JNV as a target (for an elim coinshot) is weird because I think an elim would have preferred starting a train on them because they were e!read by several persons. On the other hand, I could see Cinnamon killing someone they expect to be elim. Where does this leave us off? I am pretty sure of Cinnamon, Shining Silhouette, Archer and Illwei. So we have 3-4 elims (likely 4) in the 6 remaining players: Matrim, Whysper, Archivist, TUN, dannnnex, and Bookwyrm. Not much to go off from Whysper/Conquestor so I'll leave them for now. The idea that at least one new player is elim means that either Archivist or Bookwyrm is elim (or possibly both). I am suspicious of both, but more of Bookwyrm for all the reasons I stated D3. Among experienced players, Matrim could very well be teamed with Bookwyrm. TUN voting for himself D1, then the GM D2, could be either village (an elim has much better targets) or elim (looking active without actually trying to solve the problem). No idea on how to read dannnnex now. So as a conclusion... Bookwyrm. Ha! Lots of talk, to get back where I was last turn. Spoiler Or I could go by contradiction logic and say that since several of my elim reads turned out village, the elims are Silhouette and Archer, the two persons I never suspected
Archer he/him Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 6 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said: and slightly Mat for being a consensus elim This reads like a reflection of recent developments in attitudes, which makes it hard to tell when you developed these opinions. 5 hours ago, dannnnnnex said: 2. For those two nulls, yes. Same as you, seems like they're going for the more experienced players =P you said that in our PM in that same PM btw, you speculated a largely new player elim team why the sudden turnaround? 2. So you selected a group based on rookie status, which generally correlates with lower activity levels, then gave clears due activity levels, except in the case of the outlier, who you voted for. I changed my mind about the composition when I realized Alv was probably killed as insurance against them being a game breaking Coinshot again. And the Xino kill indicated no interest in obtaining thread control or dealing with the village power roles, which means the elims were confident we were all headed in the wrong direction yesterday. 2 hours ago, Just a Silvereye said: Not much to go off from Whysper/Conquestor so I'll leave them for now. The idea that at least one new player is elim means that either Archivist or Bookwyrm is elim (or possibly both). I am suspicious of both, but more of Bookwyrm for all the reasons I stated D3. Among experienced players, Matrim could very well be teamed with Bookwyrm. Technically the argument that there's at least one elim in the rookie pile doesn't work if you're clearing someone arbitrarily. If you're taking Whysper out of the pile you have to reduce your expected elim count by one in case they're evil. That means three elims remaining (5 minus Wiz minus Whysper) and the experienced pool you list has enough players to support that on its own. But I understand the allure of the argument when from your perspective, it's a coinflip if you go that route. Who else would you guess is also on a Mat-Book team? Against a village coinshot and two mistborn we're probably looking at two other people. 33 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said: Archvist Danex Why?
Shining Silhouette he/him Posted November 1, 2022 Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Archer said: Why? 10 hours ago, Archer said: This leaves a pool of Shining, Mat, and Dannex with at least one elim in it. Two of them have opted to vote for peripheral candidates today, which I expect is the elim gameplan. Well, if there is a pool with me, Mat, and Dan, and I know I'm a villager, then that's a 50/50 and I like Mat better than Danex currently. I also liked your thought on the inexperienced/newer players
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