Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Arrae]

Wow, is this the same group of players that produced 23 pages on D1? Just because Aman and Rand are dead doesn't mean our discussion hias to be dead too.

I don't have a lot of time now, but I'll take a look at Len later. His silence for so much of D1 is kind of weird.

EDIT: @Dalinar Kholin, can you please explain your vote on Ecth?

Edited July 7, 2017 by Arraenae

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, in my last analysis post I came up with 4 elim reads, but I guess one of those was Rae. Stick was on there, but Aman didn't seem to read her as an elim, and he was doing fairy well with his reads. So I'll go ahead and vote on Elenion, for lots of inactivity, and for pointless bandwagoning Day 1.

Edited July 7, 2017 by Araris Valerian

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Just because Stink claims neutral doesn't mean he's automatically cleared from all suspicion.

@Elenion I'm a little confused, why did you choose Rae specifically to ask about Orlok?

[STINK he/him]

7 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Just because Stink claims neutral doesn't mean he's automatically cleared from all suspicion.

@Elenion I'm a little confused, why did you choose Rae specifically to ask about Orlok?

i mean im proven neutral so ye it kinda does

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Must have missed the proven part in the 52 pages of thread. Remind me?

[Stick. she/her]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, in my last analysis post I came up with 4 elim reads, but I guess one of those was Rae. Stick was on there, but Aman didn't seem to read him as an elim, and he was doing fairy well with his reads.

*her

14 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Just because Stink claims neutral doesn't mean he's automatically cleared from all suspicion.

@Elenion I'm a little confused, why did you choose Rae specifically to ask about Orlok?

Rae is the Ringleader

5 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Must have missed the proven part in the 52 pages of thread. Remind me?

He stole from Rae, preventing the coinshot kill

[Arrae]

50 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

He stole from Rae, preventing the coinshot kill

Stink also knew I was the Ringleader.

[Stick. she/her]

@Ecthelion III you were part of the stink bandwagon the other day weren't you? Why did you vote on him?

[Ecthelion III he/him]

@_Stick_ Yep I was. I had actually voted on him the day before the bandwagon as well. Maybe it's just my Town of Salem background that gives me an inherent distrust of people who claim neutral. I thought/think that he was generally not acting very helpful to the village, advocating Strawagon for no reason, providing little reasoning, and in my posted example basing reasoning just on private PM information. Basically what Aman and later Straw said.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

20 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

@_Stick_ Yep I was. I had actually voted on him the day before the bandwagon as well. Maybe it's just my Town of Salem background that gives me an inherent distrust of people who claim neutral. I thought/think that he was generally not acting very helpful to the village, advocating Strawagon for no reason, providing little reasoning, and in my posted example basing reasoning just on private PM information. Basically what Aman and later Straw said.

Salem instills a distrust in neutrals, doesn't it lots of evil roles need to explain why they are night immune sometimes.

But I'd say general policy for surv claims is to lynch the second surv claim, then the first surv claim, if the second was telling the truth.

[Stick. she/her]

@Ecthelion III so you had no idea why so many others were voting on Stink?

---

Len's posts:

1,2) Votes on Straw because he's not Joe. Reading village on stink

3) Keeping vote on Straw because he'd rather see him lynched than Rand.

4) Asks Aman why his vote's on Aster when he thinks we should lynch yitzi today. Votes Yitzi bc following village!aman's suspicions is good and he'd want his vote on yitzi anyway. 

5,6) OOG

7) QF17 vibes

8) Votes Stink for uncool moves

9) Unvotes Stink in order to give an example of how using leverage isnt always bad.

10) Asks Aman why he'd get an elim read on len if straw flips town and then votes on straw bc it's better than a stink lynch

11) More PMs =/= more info

12, 13, 14, 15) RP

16) Asks Rae if she was in contact with Orlok.

---

So his D1 vote on Straw reads elim, his vote on yitzi (post4) was the ninth vote on yitzi, so I wouldnt exactly give that a village read. I'd expect elims to join a wagon that lynches their teammate at that point -when the lynch was pretty much solid. But then again, it's Len. He joins bandwagons. [That's not alignment indicative, though]. Len. But I'm skeptical. Might remove the vote if I find a better lead. About 10 hours left till turn over, you guys want to...vote, maybe?

 

 

[Steeldancer he/him]

Well I finally finished rereading 52 pages of text. That is a monster of a thread. 

Village reads: BR, Striker, Seonid, Crimsn, Arranae, Stick 

Neutral read: shqueeves, Stink, Wilson, Joe, Orlok, araris, elbereth, ecth

Slight elim reads: asterion, arinian, drake, dalinar 

Strong elim reads: PK, Elenion, cloudjumper. I am suspicious of their inactivity  (although some of it is legitimate) and a strong elim read off of some of their posts. I will vote on one of these three. 

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by The Flash

[Ecthelion III he/him]

@_Stick_ I thought many others' votes on Stink were about what Aman said, but mostly my vote was for my reasons. I'm not going to say no to a bunch of people voting on the person I wanted to lynch the last cycle.

Len hasn't seemed too evil to me but I don't particularly have a better candidate. @Elenion care to present one?

[Dalinar Kholin]

3 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Well I finally finished rereading 52 pages of text. That is a monster of a thread. 

Village reads: BR, Striker, Seonid, Crimsn, Arranae, Stick 

Neutral read: shqueeves, Stink, Wilson, Joe, Orlok, araris, elbereth, ecth

Slight elim reads: asterion, arinian, drake, dalinar 

Strong elim reads: PK, Elenion, cloudjumper. I am suspicious of their inactivity  (although some of it is legitimate) and a strong elim read off of some of their posts. I will vote on one of these three. 

 

Why do you have a strong elim read on PK? He was the first one to vote on Yitzi who is our only confirmed elim.

In response to Rae: Sorta gut read. Why try to get us to kill Stink? It's pretty clear he's neutral, it could be an attempt to waste another lynch, draw on the anger from yesterday in the vaccum that is todays discussion. Also, not very active. Slight elim read, I'd be okay with Len too, but not any good analysis why we should lynch him.

Edited July 7, 2017 by Dalinar Kholin

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Dalinar Kholin said:

Why do you have a strong elim read on PK? He was the first one to vote on Yitzi who is our only confirmed elim.

In response to Rae: Sorta gut read. Why try to get us to kill Stink? It's pretty clear he's neutral, it could be an attempt to waste another lynch, draw on the anger from yesterday in the vaccum that is todays discussion. Also, not very inactive. Slight elim read, I'd be okay with Len too, but not any good analysis why we should lynch him.

The PK one is more gut according to my notes. Also he voted at a time when there was really no danger (yet) for yitzi. Elenion is due to his unhelpful posts that seem to be avoiding attention, even if his inactivity is legitimate. Cloudjumper is from also seeming to be dodging suspicion, and I've seen him lurking previously but not saying anything, which is different than how he played in the last game. 

[Elenion he/him]

Well, the evil reads on me have arrived. I'm on mobile right now, so that's not conducive for long posts, but I'll grab myself a laptop and find us a better lynch candidate so we don't waste today's lynch on me.

[Stick. she/her]

Vote Tally by Stick because Aman is dead:

(1)STINK: Ecth

(1)Ecth: Dalinar

(2)Len: Araris, Stick

 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Honestly, I'm not sure who to vote on. This day has been pretty dead (thanks, Captain Obvious), so I can't really decide who to vote on. I think that, since STINK knows that what he did was kind of a jerky move, he doesn't need to be lynched anymore, but I have no clue who else we should lynch. I don't wanna lynch Elenion just because he's been a bit inactive (heck, so have I). I'll at least wait for him to post a bit before deciding.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I also had a mild elim read on PK, @Dalinar Kholin.

@Elenion, sounds good. I don't really have that much against you, you just stood out to me from the monster that is day 1.

[Arrae]

46 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Well, the evil reads on me have arrived. I'm on mobile right now, so that's not conducive for long posts, but I'll grab myself a laptop and find us a better lynch candidate so we don't waste today's lynch on me.

Why were you so inactive D1?

[Elenion he/him]

MEGAPOST INCOMING!

Okay, first off we need a starting point. Unfortunately, this isn't LG34, where I had access to everybody's role-claims. So let's start off with all posts containing Yitzi's name, because he's our one known elim thus far:

First post of Yitzi's, he offers a soft defense of Straw, countering Araris' vote on him for "blatant proliferation of PMs". We know Yitzi was evil and Straw was village, so Yitzi must have defended Straw to attempt to gain trust with the village. Araris' action seems NAI at this time.

That post was countered by Rae, who pointed out that PMs can be useful for the elims. Rae is the confirmed Ringleader and so above suspicion.

Wilson then calls Yitzi out for defending Straw, citing that in her PM with Straw he seemed like he was info-gathering. Wilson is the first to point the finger at Yitzi, so I'm reading strongly village-aligned neutral on her.

Yitzi then rebuffs Wilson's analysis with an anecdote from QF23 where Lopen slipped up in a PM with him.

Then there's some miscellaneous discussion about what Straw's PMs might say about his alignment, but we already know his alignment.

Then Yitzi says this:

Quote

On the other hand, odds are pretty good that a villager's getting lynched the first day anyway, so there's no reason for an elim to go out of his way to determine that a particular villager is lynched; if anything, keeping suspicious villagers alive might benefit the elims by causing the village to waste a lynch on them later on when the chance of lynching an elim is higher.

This does seem to follow the elim kill patterns thus far: they left Rand and Straw alive after both were deemed suspicious, probably because they anticipated Rae or the lynch doing the grunt work for them.

Discussion then switches to Joe's claim of Valjean (convict), but a few pages down the road Lopen mentions a soft suspicion on Yitzi following Wilson's reasoning. Lopen does not put his vote where his mouth is, however.

Yitzi then votes Rand, claiming to do so because he's alienating the neutrals. Given his alignment, he was probably hoping for a bandwagon to take off on Rand. At the time he had done this, there were 4 other votes on Rand: BR, Joe, Orlok, and Straw. Straw is confirmed village, Joe and Orlok are neutral probably voting on Rand because he was decidedly anti-neutral, and the composition of most bandwagons suggests that BR is village.

Aman opposes Yitzi's reasoning again, and Yitzi backs down, saying that Rand is likely neutral or village.

And now Lopen is back and defending Rand (top of pg 19), but no mention of Yitzi, despite voicing suspicions of him earlier but not voting.

Later, Lopen says this:

Quote

Ummm, I think his reasoning for defending Straw was a little strange, and I didn't agree with his reasons for voting Rand(although I think I can see it coming from a villager). It's just, I'm not sure if he's trying to take advantage of the situation to get rid of Rand, or he genuinely thought he was the PO and it was a good idea to lynch him. Besides that, him switching his read of Rand to Neutral/maybe elim to Neutral/probably village is a little strange, since he seemed to have changed his mind solely from Aman defending Rand. That's pretty much the whole case against Yitzi.

@Seonid, why did you vote Yitzi?

This is a swap on Lopen's part: he went from expressing suspicion of Yitzi and Stick, saying that he'd probably vote on one of them by the end of D1, to defending Yitzi from Seonid. But then Lopen's vote ends up on Yitzi anyway, so maybe he was just trying to elucidate Seonid's reasoning.

Unrelated to Yitzi, on page 21 Aman starts getting some pretty funky feelings about BR this game. But then BR holds her vote on Yitzi, so that complicates matters.

And now, on page 22, things get interesting. Here's the tally as the votes stand (Crimsn's tally)

Quote

(4) randuir: Straw, Yitzi2, The Flash, Jondesu, 

(4) Yitzi2: The Mighty Lopen, Amanuensis, Seonid, BrightnessRadiant, 

(4) Straw: STINK, Araris Valerian, Elenion, asterion137, 

(1) A Joe in the Bush: randuir,

(1) Jondesu: Arraenae, 

(1) Shqueeves: Paranoid King,

First vote down is Joe trying to shake things up by voting Jondesu.

Stick is hesitant to vote, but says that if she does then it would be on Rand--important for later.

Crimsn and Orlok suddenly change their votes to Jon, and now the votes stand at (my own calculation, with added colors--not votes)

(4) randuir: Straw, Yitzi2, The Flash, Jondesu, 

(4) Yitzi2: The Mighty Lopen, Amanuensis, Seonid, BrightnessRadiant, 

(4) Straw: STINK, Araris Valerian, Elenion, asterion137, 

(1) A Joe in the Bush: randuir,

(4) Jondesu: Arraenae, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok

(1) Shqueeves: Paranoid King

We now have a 4-way tie for the lynch.

Then, Stick jumps in and votes for Jon instead of Rand, even though she said she'd probably vote for Rand eariler. She makes no mention of Rand in her posts.

And here comes BR with the clincher. She retracts from Yitzi and votes on Jon, making it Jon 6, Rand 4, Straw 4, Yitzi 3. This is what gets Yitzi out of danger.

Aaaand... cycle's over.

 

Analysis of the last bit: I think there was at least one elim involved in the last-minute shenanigans, because the elims would definitely not have wanted to lose one of their own D1. The real movers and shakers of that last bit were Joe, who started the Jon wagon; Stick, who put Jon in the lead for the lynch; and BR, who took Yitzi out of immediate danger. I'm not thinking BR was the elim, because elims usually don't like to retract votes from teammates at the last second. It's something that's too easily seen as suspicious, so I'm thinking an elim BR would have just stood by and let Stick shift the vote. Orlok, of course, is neutral and nobody has counterclaimed Convict's Ward, so he's out of the picture. That leaves us with Stick, and I find her suspicious for a number of reasons:

1. She set off Lopen's elim radar, which also caught Yitzi

2. She's been around but hasn't mentioned Yitzi much, which might be an effort to prevent the two from being associated.

3. She said she'd probably vote for Rand, but at the last second she voted Jon citing Aman's reasoning. As an elim, this makes perfect sense, because it removes Yitzi from imminent danger, while associating Stick with village!Aman. Also, the Jon bandwagon was more likely to attract additional last-second support because it had a lot of momentum behind it. As a villager, Stick's move makes less sense, because at least in my experience as a villager on around turnover I don't usually completely change my suspicions at the last second.

So there you have it: 3 reasons to vote Stick.

 

34 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Why were you so inactive D1?

That would be because of LG34. At the beginning of the second-to-last day, immediately after Yitzi's death, I made a massive Aman-style post where I identified Meta as almost certainly an elim and Sart or HH as the other (the remaining elims were, in fact, Meta and Sart). Unfortunately, the village was suspicious of me, and I didn't get much support for a Meta vote. Convincing the village that I wasn't evil and, after my Sart suspicions were substantiated, that it was Meta and not I that was evil required a lot of time analyzing and writing posts. I'm in an English 2010 class this summer, and I have a job, and so what time and energy I did have for SE was poured into eking out a victory over there, leaving me with little time or energy to spend reading through pages and pages of D1 discussion. @The Flash can attest to all of the LG34 facts, and STINK can attest that I had very little motivation left to participate in the D1 discussion because I told him so in a PM.

Edited July 7, 2017 by Elenion
LG34 not 24

[Steeldancer he/him]

20 minutes ago, Elenion said:

MEGAPOST INCOMING!

Okay, first off we need a starting point. Unfortunately, this isn't LG34, where I had access to everybody's role-claims. So let's start off with all posts containing Yitzi's name, because he's our one known elim thus far:

First post of Yitzi's, he offers a soft defense of Straw, countering Araris' vote on him for "blatant proliferation of PMs". We know Yitzi was evil and Straw was village, so Yitzi must have defended Straw to attempt to gain trust with the village. Araris' action seems NAI at this time.

That post was countered by Rae, who pointed out that PMs can be useful for the elims. Rae is the confirmed Ringleader and so above suspicion.

Wilson then calls Yitzi out for defending Straw, citing that in her PM with Straw he seemed like he was info-gathering. Wilson is the first to point the finger at Yitzi, so I'm reading strongly village-aligned neutral on her.

Yitzi then rebuffs Wilson's analysis with an anecdote from QF23 where Lopen slipped up in a PM with him.

Then there's some miscellaneous discussion about what Straw's PMs might say about his alignment, but we already know his alignment.

Then Yitzi says this:

This does seem to follow the elim kill patterns thus far: they left Rand and Straw alive after both were deemed suspicious, probably because they anticipated Rae or the lynch doing the grunt work for them.

Discussion then switches to Joe's claim of Valjean (convict), but a few pages down the road Lopen mentions a soft suspicion on Yitzi following Wilson's reasoning. Lopen does not put his vote where his mouth is, however.

Yitzi then votes Rand, claiming to do so because he's alienating the neutrals. Given his alignment, he was probably hoping for a bandwagon to take off on Rand. At the time he had done this, there were 4 other votes on Rand: BR, Joe, Orlok, and Straw. Straw is confirmed village, Joe and Orlok are neutral probably voting on Rand because he was decidedly anti-neutral, and the composition of most bandwagons suggests that BR is village.

Aman opposes Yitzi's reasoning again, and Yitzi backs down, saying that Rand is likely neutral or village.

And now Lopen is back and defending Rand (top of pg 19), but no mention of Yitzi, despite voicing suspicions of him earlier but not voting.

Later, Lopen says this:

This is a swap on Lopen's part: he went from expressing suspicion of Yitzi and Stick, saying that he'd probably vote on one of them by the end of D1, to defending Yitzi from Seonid. But then Lopen's vote ends up on Yitzi anyway, so maybe he was just trying to elucidate Seonid's reasoning.

Unrelated to Yitzi, on page 21 Aman starts getting some pretty funky feelings about BR this game. But then BR holds her vote on Yitzi, so that complicates matters.

And now, on page 22, things get interesting. Here's the tally as the votes stand (Crimsn's tally)

First vote down is Joe trying to shake things up by voting Jondesu.

Stick is hesitant to vote, but says that if she does then it would be on Rand--important for later.

Crimsn and Orlok suddenly change their votes to Jon, and now the votes stand at (my own calculation, with added colors--not votes)

(4) randuir: Straw, Yitzi2, The Flash, Jondesu, 

(4) Yitzi2: The Mighty Lopen, Amanuensis, Seonid, BrightnessRadiant, 

(4) Straw: STINK, Araris Valerian, Elenion, asterion137, 

(1) A Joe in the Bush: randuir,

(4) Jondesu: Arraenae, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok

(1) Shqueeves: Paranoid King

We now have a 4-way tie for the lynch.

Then, Stick jumps in and votes for Jon instead of Rand, even though she said she'd probably vote for Rand eariler. She makes no mention of Rand in her posts.

And here comes BR with the clincher. She retracts from Yitzi and votes on Jon, making it Jon 6, Rand 4, Straw 4, Yitzi 3. This is what gets Yitzi out of danger.

Aaaand... cycle's over.

 

Analysis of the last bit: I think there was at least one elim involved in the last-minute shenanigans, because the elims would definitely not have wanted to lose one of their own D1. The real movers and shakers of that last bit were Joe, who started the Jon wagon; Stick, who put Jon in the lead for the lynch; and BR, who took Yitzi out of immediate danger. I'm not thinking BR was the elim, because elims usually don't like to retract votes from teammates at the last second. It's something that's too easily seen as suspicious, so I'm thinking an elim BR would have just stood by and let Stick shift the vote. Orlok, of course, is neutral and nobody has counterclaimed Convict's Ward, so he's out of the picture. That leaves us with Stick, and I find her suspicious for a number of reasons:

1. She set off Lopen's elim radar, which also caught Yitzi

2. She's been around but hasn't mentioned Yitzi much, which might be an effort to prevent the two from being associated.

3. She said she'd probably vote for Rand, but at the last second she voted Jon citing Aman's reasoning. As an elim, this makes perfect sense, because it removes Yitzi from imminent danger, while associating Stick with village!Aman. Also, the Jon bandwagon was more likely to attract additional last-second support because it had a lot of momentum behind it. As a villager, Stick's move makes less sense, because at least in my experience as a villager on around turnover I don't usually completely change my suspicions at the last second.

So there you have it: 3 reasons to vote Stick.

 

That would be because of LG34. At the beginning of the second-to-last day, immediately after Yitzi's death, I made a massive Aman-style post where I identified Meta as almost certainly an elim and Sart or HH as the other (the remaining elims were, in fact, Meta and Sart). Unfortunately, the village was suspicious of me, and I didn't get much support for a Meta vote. Convincing the village that I wasn't evil and, after my Sart suspicions were substantiated, that it was Meta and not I that was evil required a lot of time analyzing and writing posts. I'm in an English 2010 class this summer, and I have a job, and so what time and energy I did have for SE was poured into eking out a victory over there, leaving me with little time or energy to spend reading through pages and pages of D1 discussion. @The Flash can attest to all of the LG34 facts, and STINK can attest that I had very little motivation left to participate in the D1 discussion because I told him so in a PM.

Well... the only issue I have with this is that I have a strong village read on stick. He's been doing all sorts of analysis and helpful stuff. It wasn't fluff or redundant things. But I will take my vote off of elenion . I'll instead suggest cloudjumper , my third suspicion. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Elenion are you trying to kill all discussion by killing Stick? She's about the most focused and prolific player at this point.

Yes, I honestly don't think Brightness Radiant is evil because it would have seemed too obvious if she had switched her vote at the last minute to save teammate!Yitzi on purpose. You do make an interesting point about Stick.

Flash, you said "I've seen [Cloudjumper] lurking previously but not saying anything, which is different than how he played in the last game." I don't necessarily agree with this; the last few games I've played with him that's exactly how he's been. Same with Elenion, that's usually how he is until he wallposts about this time every game. Also, if you are village, we would learn more from killing you than someone who has been very lurky like Cloudjumper.

[little wilson she/her]

Len.

[Ecthelion III he/him]

@little wilson Do you have anything to add? Or just agree with the already stated reasoning?