Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, asterion137 said:

Half an hour or so

Kk I'll wait like, 5-10 minutes.

[Stick. she/her]

Maybe it's this bit:

Quote

I guess it is pretty suspicious that I sided with claimed neutrals right after the Elims helped them. Oh well I don't really have much hope about not getting lynched this cycle but if Rand really isn't an elim I'd be lynched next cycle for sure anyway. And since I still dont feel good about D1 lynch, Rand Yitzi

Emphasis mine and all

[DeTess she/her]

Okay, let's pick the quote apart sentence by sentence then. Asterion, this is going to be some Major level nit-picking. I don't expect you to respond to anything that I don't directly ask you about (though feel free to do so anyway if you want).

Quote

I guess it is pretty suspicious that I sided with claimed neutrals right after the Elims helped them. 

First, village!Asterion might not actually have worded that as siding with the Neutrals, as obviously he would be taking the side of the village with all his actions. This could just be a figure of speech about him being perceived as siding with the neutrals, which is more or less what he was being accused of, so it's not that odd for him to word it that way.

He also assumes that whatever help to the Neutrals their deal with the elims includes, it has already been given. This is a logical assumption, as it is easy to figure out how the attack would help Orlok(thief's child joins the triangle), while it makes less sense for it to have been some sort of payment byt the neutrals to the elims.

Quote

Oh well I don't really have much hope about not getting lynched this cycle but if Rand really isn't an elim I'd be lynched next cycle for sure anyway. 

This sentence becomes stranger the longer I look at it, but not in a way that is directly Alignment indicative. Him being lynched D3 is somehow directly related to my alignment? This might actually make sense if the elims had at the time decided they wanted to kill me N2, and so he thought this would be getting him in trouble anyway, but this is again a bit of a stretch.

Hmmmm, the longer I think about it, the more it seems like he was somehow expecting a definitive proof of my alignment to roll around before the start of D3, and that that would get him in trouble. Or that voting on Yitzi wouldn't get him out of trouble, meaning that he either expected that lynch to go nowhere, or that he wasn't expecting yitizi to be an elim.

Quote

And since I still dont feel good about D1 lynch, Rand Yitzi

Basically explains why he decides to vote Yitzi now. Nothing odd about this as far as I can see.

[asterion137 he/him]

Gosh I meant that in case we did end up lynching rand

 

[little wilson she/her]

Wanna know what makes me amused with the votes on Straw? It's all about Yitzi's defense of Straw. Why do I find this funny? Because there's another player who Yitzi defended a ton more, and who defended Yitzi as well. Rand. Yes, I know, I know. I'm a neutral and this is getting to be a broken record - the neutrals going after Rand. But seriously. Look at this.

First, let's look at the timestamp of Rand's vote on Joe:

On 6/25/2017 at 9:04 AM, randuir said:

Oh, well, in that case it's easy. Joe.

I've got nothing against Neutrals, but I do have something against Neutrals that decide they want to work with the elims. Given that the C1 lynch isn't particularly likely to hit an elim (all discussion seems to be focused around STINK and Straw, and I don't have much reason to believe any of these two is an elim), we might as well take out a 'Neutral' that has decided he wants to aid the elims.

Now let's look at the timestamp of his last post of that turn:

On 6/25/2017 at 1:56 PM, randuir said:

He has been online, given that he has responded in QF 24 a couple of hours back (15 hours, to be precise). Like I said, this is a very slim lead, but his relative inactivity after asking someone else to be more active (which an elim might do to appear to be helping, though it's by no means alignment indicative one way or the other) and the random PM's (which where apparently a good enough reason for some to start lynching Straw ).

There are some other people (Elbereth and maybe Wilson come to mind, as both have made substantial posts) I might be able to form an opinion on if I took the time to go through their posts with a fine comb, but right now I don't have the time nor the mental power for it. I should have that by next cycle though.

Almost five hours later. Why is this relevant? Because a couple people mentioned in Rand's defense that he wouldn't have done something like this if he was going to get off for the rest of the turn right after. But he didn't. He was around for almost 5 hours, continuously posting that entire time, with a very active thread. He also indicated that he was active in PMs as well (his post about having had a couple people ask if he was the PO). And one of Aman's points of defense for Rand was that an eliminator wouldn't have done that without consulting their team. 

Here's the thing: elims do plenty of things without consulting their team. Mostly things they know they'd do if they were village. Elim!Rand could've easily seen Joe's thing and called him out via vote because he knew he would've done it as a villager. He's got 5 hours before he has to sleep and then take his exam, so surely that's enough time to assuage any suspicion against him that may or may not arise. Unless he doesn't even consider that it will bring him suspicion. After all, he's doing something he knows he'd do as a villager. Why would that bring him suspicion?

Anyway. Moving on. The four key posts Yitzi made D1 about Rand:

On 6/25/2017 at 5:20 PM, Yitzi2 said:

It seems to me that Randuir is most likely the Parole Officer.  Now, that's not an elim role, but unlike the other neutral roles he has a particular reason to help the elims in one case, namely in the case of supporting a hammer to kill the Convict (which would likely be at a point where the wasted lynch costs the village the game).  While I don't think Straw's playing style is the best for the village, I don't think he's the same sort of threat.  (And if Randuir is not the Parole Officer, then he's certainly alienating the neutrals.)  Randuir.

On 6/25/2017 at 5:34 PM, Yitzi2 said:

You don't think an elim might try to alienate the neutrals to the village?  Ok...you've got a better idea of such things than me,

That said, if we did know him to be the PO, would it be better to lynch him now, or continue hunting for the actual elims?

EDIT due to ninja:

Parole Officer.  If he's not the Parole Officer, he's probably not Neutral.

On 6/25/2017 at 5:46 PM, Yitzi2 said:

Ok.  I think your point about execution probably holds merit, and while I'm not sure I agree with you about strategy, that's not enough if he might very well just be a villager who got a bit over-enthusiastic.  Randuir.

On 6/25/2017 at 8:30 PM, Yitzi2 said:

But when it most matters would be at the end, when it would be most likely to be known that he was village.

After consideration, I think Amanuensis is right about this not fitting elim!Rand.  Either he's village, or he's neutral.  (Or he's an elim trying to be sneaky, but that way lies IKYK and you can at most weaken the evidence against him being an elim, not turn it into evidence in favor).

Intermingled among these is a lengthy discussion Yitzi had with Aman about Rand and why Aman was convinced that Rand couldn't be an elim. I think we all remember that. Now, Yitzi is claiming he believes Rand is the PO, and he's very convinced that the PO is anti-village:

On 6/25/2017 at 5:57 PM, Yitzi2 said:

Call it four on their side, because the Parole Officer is generally opposed to the Convict and his allies (so I count him as negative one).  I can assure you that the Parole Officer will not mind if we try to get the Convict lynched.

(sidenote: why am I opposed to the convict's allies again? And the Convict? None of our win conditions are mutually exclusive. The Convict does not have to survive. He just needs the Ward to survive, and the Ward has to survive anyway for her own win con, so no problems there. The Convict can die to help the PO and they both could win. All of the neutrals could win)

Despite being convinced that Rand is the PO (incorrect, obvs) and that the PO is bad for the village (also incorrect), he backs off Rand with relatively little persuasion by Aman, considering how certain he claimed to be.

During N1, he says this:

On 6/26/2017 at 7:39 AM, Yitzi2 said:

-I did change my mind regarding Rand was purely from the arguments that other people posted, but then my suspicion that he might be an elim was also based on what other people said in that regard.  The only things I concluded on my own about Rand (and which I still maintain) are that (a) he's probably the PO, and (b) Having a PO who has yet to fulfill his goals can be dangerous for the village in the late game, since he can cooperate with the elims to lynch the Convict in a LOL situation.  (Conversely, other neutrals are probably going to fulfill their goals anyway if it's down to the wire, since the village and elims will be too busy trying to knock out each other to target them; the PO is the only one for whom survival is not enough.)

On 6/26/2017 at 1:01 PM, Yitzi2 said:

Is it so hard to believe that I read other people's suspicions and found them believable, then read the post of someone who knows Randuir's meta better than I do and decided that was more credible?

But he also still believes Rand is the PO:

On 6/26/2017 at 1:52 PM, Yitzi2 said:

-Randuir: Probably the PO, considering how eager he was to lynch the Convict.  Not really sure what else there is to say on that front.

And therefore bad for the village:

On 6/26/2017 at 7:08 PM, Yitzi2 said:

Browser ate my post; good thing it wasn't a really huge one:

1. When I talked about the effects of Joe's claim given that someone wants to lynch him, I was referring more to the "willingness to make a deal with the elims" part (which would make him a lot easier to lynch); I did know that the PO already knows who the Convict is.

2. About why the PO has incentives to help the elims late game: Consider the following simplified scenario: Neutrals except the PO are all guaranteed wins and have gone inactive.  There are 3 villagers, 2 elims, no rioters or soothers, and everybody knows each others' alignment.  It's day.

If the PO does nothing, then an elim gets lynched, villager gets killed, elim gets lynched, game over with the Convict still alive, so the PO loses.

If the PO votes for the Convict, the elims will join him (essentially a hammer), making it a tie.  (The Convict doesn't vote because the Ward isn't threatened.)  50% chance that means the Convict is lynched, so a villager is killed and it's game (elim win, PO wins).  Otherwise, a villager is killed for 1v2 and the PO, so the PO tries again, making a total of 75% chance that the elims win due to the PO's vote.  (Obviously, deals could be struck, but if so it's better to do so earlier than later, and the elims still have an advantage with regard to the Convict in that they don't need the Convict to do anything except cooperate in his own win condition.)

And here, in Day 2, is where things really start getting interesting:

On 6/27/2017 at 5:24 PM, Yitzi2 said:

He is probably right about the POs and Thief being bad for the village.

As for why the elims could have a Tineye, I've only played one game with neutral roles (other than this), but in it, the elims did have a courier (the equivalent for that game).

I'm also a bit wary of labeling as "anti-Neutral sentiment" the position that certain particular neutrals are more likely to benefit the elims rather than the village and that it is therefore in the village's best interest to lynch them, for no small part because I am "guilty" of such a position myself (targeted against Rand, ironically).

What does your analysis say about him actually being the PO himself?  I thought he was, but now I'm not so sure...

He still thinks the PO is bad for the village, but now, suddenly, he's unsure if Rand is the PO. What changed? I didn't claim PO to him. I claimed Eponine, and the real Eponine wasn't in touch with the eliminators during the night, so there's no way they had a PO claim. But let's say that he had some other reason to think that Rand wasn't neutral and therefore not the PO. Cue defense of Rand:

On 6/27/2017 at 5:50 PM, Yitzi2 said:

Even if so, it would be unlikely for that to move him to a lynch chance much lower than average.  Ergo, there would be a significant chance of him being lynched, being found to be an elim, and ending up antagonizing the neutrals to the elims instead.  I'll agree that it isn't 100% proof of his non-elim-hood, but the only way to turn it into a reason for suspicion that he's an elim is if you think he's a really bad player, or at least a risk-loving one.

Getting more interesting:

On 6/28/2017 at 2:07 PM, Yitzi2 said:

Aman: Clearly defending Randuir, to the point of instaposting about votes for him before even reading the reasoning for the vote, and others have pointed that out too.  It's a bit too blatant for me to want to say that it's because they're elim-buddies, and on top of that Rand voting for Joe doesn't really seem very elim-like (though Wilson pointed out that could be a ploy by Aman and Rand because they're both known to be so dangerous as elims; while we're all agreed that it's a huge tinfoil, I just don't see any other good reason for the intensity of the defense.  Alternatively, it's possible that elim!Rand didn't even consider the alienation factor and just voted Joe for some other reason, perhaps as an elim deal with the PO), but I can't really think of any other good reasons for that reaction.  Orlok also pointed out that Aman gave an argument that really would give the neutrals a reason to help the elims.  He (she?  I don't really know these things) told cloudjumper "I'm reading town on you" due to cloudjumper saying "if Rand is elim, Aman isn't" after Aman had admitted that he almost certainly was if Rand was...Aman.

(Aman also indicated significant suspicion of Jon, who turned out to be village, but those sort of mistakes happen often, especially early on, so it's not a major contributing factor in my vote.)

On 6/28/2017 at 4:41 PM, Yitzi2 said:

To answer your question to Rae: I think it would provide some input, but not as much as if Aman dies and doesn't flip elim; this was my main reason for voting Aman over you.

On 6/29/2017 at 4:57 AM, Yitzi2 said:

Please explain.  Why would Village!Aman have such a kneejerk defense of Randuir?

Why is this interesting? Because it's still a major defense of Rand, but it's a very, very subtle one. Aman is village. He's the Scavenger, though the elims didn't know that at this point in time. What they do know is that Rand and Aman have been tied together thanks to Aman's hard defense of Rand, and if Aman dies and is shown to be village, Rand will look better.

That's what the above three posts look like to me: an eliminator voting on a villager in hopes that the villager gets lynched and his buddy ends up looking better because of his ties to this villager. I see absolutely no reason for an eliminator to push the Aman/Rand thing unless it benefited them. And it most certainly would've if Aman had died and Rand is evil. Even if this backfires and Rand dies instead, Aman would still probably die because of his ties to Rand.

 

But anyway, let's bring in Rand. I know he had other posts defending Yitzi earlier in the day, but the biggest one is this one, right towards the end of the cycle:

On 6/30/2017 at 2:46 AM, randuir said:

I said I'd look at Yitzi, and I have, though I had to rush through his posts of this day (he posted a lot).

I've mentioned this before, but D1 I got a village vibe from him. Yes, he voted on me, but now that I've looked it over more closely he seemed to have been using the same reasoning I used to vote for Joe against me, and turn-about is fair play, I guess. His discussion with Aman about me also made sense, and him backing off when all his concerns and suspicions had been treated makes me lean slightly village on him (an elim would probably have tried to dodge a discussion with Aman if he though he could get away with it).

N1 he did say those odd things about the elims being afraid of Aman, which make me lean a bit elim on him. I thought it was especially notable that he could dig up that quote within one minute of Flash asking about it.

Based purely on D1 and N1, which I went through with a fine comb, I end up with a Neutral read.

Taking D2 into account, I still don't really see why a lot of people are extremely suspicious of him. Trying to go after Aman would have been an odd thing to do if we assume he is an elim and his comment about Aman being scary came from the doc: if the elims are so scared of Aman, why would they try to take him down in a straight up battle of reasoning, instead of using the elim kill? That would only make sense if they had strong reason to believe he was a thug with a large supply of pewter. Going after Aman was odd, but he wasn't the only one (Seonid, for example), so it might really have just been a villager who thought he'd caught an elim. Or it could have been an elim attempt to get him lynched because he thought his argument was good enough. I really don't know at this point.

Overall read: Neutral/leaning very slightly elim.

I might change my mind if I look through D2 more closely, but at the moment I'm not suspicious enough of yitzi to change my vote.

Yitzi is leading in the votes and will die in 14 minutes. Rand's overall read is neutral, leaning very slightly elim. So why not just vote on him? If you think he could be? He's going to die no matter what. Yet Rand doesn't.

And then, after rollover, he posts this:

On 6/30/2017 at 4:11 AM, randuir said:

I quickly checked, and the vote that properly brought Yitzi in the lead over Asterion was @StrikerEZ. The votes after that Where BR, Seonid, Elenion and Lopen. Aman seems to be convinced Lopen is good, and Elenion had a reasonably good reason to come late in the voting as well, but I'm going to have to take a good look at Seonid and BR when I've got the time.

Also, the voting at the end of D1 should be re-examined, as it is now not unreasonable to think that it was an elim-backed effort to ensure Yitzi didn't die. The votes on Jondesu where:

Joe has claimed Neutral, and so has Orlok, so that leaves Crimsn, Stick and Brightness on this particular vote as possible elims stepping in to try to save Yitzi. I kinda don't like that BR features in both these lists, but I've had village reads on her until now, so it could just be coincidence. I'm adding Crimsn and Stick to my list of people I should take another look at, though.

Edit: Seonid did vote on Yitzi D1 as well, so based on that he can actually be considered village, as I wouldn't expect elims to really participate in a potential lynch of one of their own D1. 

To me, this looks like he knew Yitzi's alignment before Yitzi flipped evil, and he stayed out of that vote so he could cast suspicion on those who participated later in the vote, which he wouldn't have been able to do if he had voted.

And before anyone mentions the fact that most of the neutrals conveniently banded against Rand the day after the elims attacked Orlok, helping the neutrals, and therefore making it seem like the elims wanted Rand dead, that's not what happened. Most of the neutrals are pretty convinced that Yitzi and Rand were/are teammates. That vote wasn't because of the elims. I guarantee it. To my knowledge, my vote is the only one that the elims secured from attacking Orlok, because I lied and told them I was Eponine. And I didn't vote on Rand during the day, very deliberately.

Also, to comment on Arin's defense of Rand because he's not playing like LG30, no player even remotely worth their salt is going to duplicate play like that. If you think every time Rand is evil he's going to play exactly like he did in LG30, you need to think again, because he won't. He certainly didn't in LG32. He fought tooth and nail straight to the end, declaring his innocence when almost anyone else would've just confessed and started trolling. But not Rand. Never Rand. He's easily good enough to be an eliminator right now and if you write him off just because what he's done doesn't make sense to you as an eliminator.....well. Go chat with Aonar about LG9 and how bad an idea that is. He did exactly that same thing with me, and it cost him the game.

 

tl;dr: Yitzi's defenses of Straw look more like elim/village defenses (as in, an eliminator lightly defending a villager, perhaps to pocket/buddy up with that villager to a small degree). I see no way for his defenses of Rand (namely his reasons for voting Aman) and Rand's defenses of Yitzi (namely the pre-rollover analysis and post rollover suspicion-casting) to be anything but elim/elim.

[Amanuensis he/him]

12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Maybe it's this bit:

Quote

I guess it is pretty suspicious that I sided with claimed neutrals right after the Elims helped them. Oh well I don't really have much hope about not getting lynched this cycle but if Rand really isn't an elim I'd be lynched next cycle for sure anyway. And since I still dont feel good about D1 lynch, Rand Yitzi

Emphasis mine and all

Pretty much, but it's a little more than that. Or, I guess, things left unsaid.

11 minutes ago, randuir said:

Okay, let's pick the quote apart sentence by sentence then. Asterion, this is going to be some Major level nit-picking. I don't expect you to respond to anything that I don't directly ask you about (though feel free to do so anyway if you want).

First, village!Asterion might not actually have worded that as siding with the Neutrals, as obviously he would be taking the side of the village with all his actions. This could just be a figure of speech about him being perceived as siding with the neutrals, which is more or less what he was being accused of, so it's not that odd for him to word it that way.

He also assumes that whatever help to the Neutrals their deal with the elims includes, it has already been given. This is a logical assumption, as it is easy to figure out how the attack would help Orlok(thief's child joins the triangle), while it makes less sense for it to have been some sort of payment byt the neutrals to the elims.

This sentence becomes stranger the longer I look at it, but not in a way that is directly Alignment indicative. Him being lynched D3 is somehow directly related to my alignment? This might actually make sense if the elims had at the time decided they wanted to kill me N2, and so he thought this would be getting him in trouble anyway, but this is again a bit of a stretch.

Hmmmm, the longer I think about it, the more it seems like he was somehow expecting a definitive proof of my alignment to roll around before the start of D3, and that that would get him in trouble. Or that voting on Yitzi wouldn't get him out of trouble, meaning that he either expected that lynch to go nowhere, or that he wasn't expecting yitizi to be an elim.

Basically explains why he decides to vote Yitzi now. Nothing odd about this as far as I can see.

Good effort.

Regarding the neutrals voting you, I was informed that had nothing to do with Orlok's deal. I was told afterwards that they voted for you because they were genuinely suspicious of you and that they knew I was town so they were hoping to get the lynch off of me.

But anyway, regarding Aster. The thing that I noticed is that he doesn't apply the same logic to you being good and him getting lynched next to Yitzi. That implies to me heavily that he already knew Yitzi was evil, hence my comment yesterday about forcing teammates to vote for each other, as one of them being killed would then make the other look better.

The question I think we should be asking @asterion137 is why didn't he think about what would happen if Yitzi turned out good.

---

Ninja'd by Wilson. Reading now.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

wow

@little wilson Sorry but who is Eponine? I havent watched les mis 

[asterion137 he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Pretty much, but it's a little more than that. Or, I guess, things left unsaid.

Good effort.

Regarding the neutrals voting you, I was informed that had nothing to do with Orlok's deal. I was told afterwards that they voted for you because they were genuinely suspicious of you and that they knew I was town so they were hoping to get the lynch off of me.

But anyway, regarding Aster. The thing that I noticed is that he doesn't apply the same logic to you being good and him getting lynched next to Yitzi. That implies to me heavily that he already knew Yitzi was evil, hence my comment yesterday about forcing teammates to vote for each other, as one of them being killed would then make the other look better.

The question I think we should be asking @asterion137 is why didn't he think about what would happen if Yitzi turned out good.

---

Ninja'd by Wilson. Reading now.

K. Im leaving now and wont be back for a few hours so it would be much appreciated if you guys held off on the bandwagons until I get back

[little wilson she/her]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

wow

@little wilson Sorry but who is Eponine? I havent watched les mis 

Thief's Child.

[DeTess she/her]

@little wilson, If I knew that Yitzi was an elim, why wouldn't I jump on the vote on him? Worst case, I get included in the group of 'potential bussers'. Instead I went with what my analysis was telling me instead of following the majority, which was exactly what I announced I was going to do, and what I've been trying to do all this time. As you said, Yitzi had a big enough lead that it didn't really matter either way.

24 minutes ago, little wilson said:

 

Almost five hours later. Why is this relevant? Because a couple people mentioned in Rand's defense that he wouldn't have done something like this if he was going to get off for the rest of the turn right after. But he didn't. He was around for almost 5 hours, continuously posting that entire time, with a very active thread. He also indicated that he was active in PMs as well (his post about having had a couple people ask if he was the PO). And one of Aman's points of defense for Rand was that an eliminator wouldn't have done that without consulting their team. 

Here's the thing: elims do plenty of things without consulting their team. Mostly things they know they'd do if they were village. Elim!Rand could've easily seen Joe's thing and called him out via vote because he knew he would've done it as a villager. He's got 5 hours before he has to sleep and then take his exam, so surely that's enough time to assuage any suspicion against him that may or may not arise. Unless he doesn't even consider that it will bring him suspicion. After all, he's doing something he knows he'd do as a villager. Why would that bring him suspicion?

That would have still leave about 12 hours for things to change in, and the game wasn't yet moving at the increased pace, so I don't see why I would assume that all possible arguments would be made within the next 5 hours.

Quote

Despite being convinced that Rand is the PO (incorrect, obvs) and that the PO is bad for the village (also incorrect), he backs off Rand with relatively little persuasion by Aman, considering how certain he claimed to be.

Not sure if that was a little persuasion that Aman seemed to be applying, but your mileage may vary.

For the rest, I might be able to make a good case against the rest of your accusations if I'm completely awake, but I'm not going to try right now as you do make some good points. I know you're wrong, but I'm not going to try to defend myself when I'm half-asleep, as that will not end well.

If people do want to lynch me for this, please make sure that there is an unambiguous lead one me by tomorrow so I can take actions to maximize the amount of information that is gained from this cycle. BR knows what I'm talking about.

Edit: Another thing, if my goal had been to cast suspicious at the people involved, why would I then go ahead and try to clear them? BR and Seonid where scrapped from that list because they had earlier votes on Yitzi, and I went through crimsn's and Stick's posts and ended up having tentative village reads. Lopen concluded that Stick was probably evil, irrc, and Aman wasn't sure, so it's not like it would have been impossible for elim!me to spin an analysis of stick as evil.

Edited July 3, 2017 by randuir

[Arraenae]

Rand, maybe you didn't vote on Yitzi immediately because, oh, it was D1 and it always sucks to lose an elim teammate to the first lynch of the game? Perhaps you thought there was a fair chance of him surviving, and you figured that it would be safe enough if Yitzi distanced himself from you by voting on you and then retracting?

For Asterion's quote: the tone of the whole thing just feels off. He seems resigned to dying. I can't know what was running through Aster's head as he wrote that, but I know that in my first game as an elim, I was scared to death that I would get caught. I was so convinced that I would be caught and horribly mobbed to death that I made a plan for my team to bus me. I could see another new elim thinking something similar.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Arraenae said:

Rand, maybe you didn't vote on Yitzi immediately because, oh, it was D1 and it always sucks to lose an elim teammate to the first lynch of the game? Perhaps you thought there was a fair chance of him surviving, and you figured that it would be safe enough if Yitzi distanced himself from you by voting on you and then retracting?

I believe we're referring to D2 here, Rae.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Arraenae]

Whoops. Still sucks to lose a teammate D2, though.

[Paranoid King he/him]

So here's what happened, then.

Spoiler

Aman revealed as the scavenger last cycle (a confirmed-good role)

Stink stole his steel, preventing a confirmed villager from allowing another confirmed villager to make a kill

Everyone voted on Stink

3 people revealed their roles, assuming Stink would reveal them anyways.

Arinian brought up that Stink can't steal the steel again

Half of the people transferred to Straw

Half of the people stayed on Stink: He's working for elims and he blackmailed people, which makes the game no fun.

Game returned to "normal" discussion.

If we kill Straw, we kill an elim. If we kill Stink, we have no possibility of killing an elim. Stink can't steal from the ringleader again, can't make the elim kill, doesn't count against the win con, can't strategize without PMs, and has likely already given the elims all the info he gleaned from PMs.

Personally, I think Straw is a better bet than Stink right now, even if Stink has been a jerk.

[Arraenae]

Uh. PK, how do you know Straw is an elim?

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Paranoid King, the lady asked you a question  

[Stick. she/her]

In other news, the votes are tied now. Which I don't know how to feel about.

Edited July 3, 2017 by _Stick_
spellangs

[Amanuensis he/him]

Stink is off the table for me, personally. I don't think a Straw lynch is very productive but there's a reason I wanted to kill him (to help develop a better picture of Araris and Elenion, since if Straw is good, one of them could be evil, and if Straw is evil, they are probably good).

[Dalinar Kholin]

On 7/2/2017 at 1:18 PM, asterion137 said:

I have no vials left (I wanted to get them all used in case I died) and I don't think any other village allomancers have claimed except the ringleader so I think we should be good on future STINK steals. However I think we kind of have to kill STINK now that we showed this much hostility since there's no chance he helps the village at all anyway 

 

Emphasis Mine.

Asterion This does make me a little more suspicious. Convincing us to waste our lynch on a neutral (especially stink, there's no particular reason he won't help the village, he'll do what he wants), seems a little off to me. Especially right after people started getting off the Stink bandwagon. I'm really not sure what to make of Asterion;s playstyle overall, first time I've played with him. I'm suspicious of him, but that's about all.

Stick has been posting a lot of small posts, poking questions and commenting on stuff.

On 7/2/2017 at 2:31 PM, _Stick_ said:

._.

 

On 7/2/2017 at 1:30 PM, _Stick_ said:

We still can. Stink Straw 

I really hope Straw's an elim...

 

On 7/2/2017 at 1:14 PM, _Stick_ said:

...should be good news for you because you got to live?

edit: yeah, just read the good news above this >>

It's not our only kill, though, right?

 

On 7/2/2017 at 1:09 PM, _Stick_ said:

Okay I've thought some about this, and wasting a day doesn't seem like the best option. I think we may have overreacted a bit. Plus, now that he can't steal from the Ringleader, I think we're fine, mostly. Like, he's going to steal more vials, of course, but that his win condition so...I doubt he knows who all the elims are, as Aster suggested [I, at least, wouldn't reveal my whole team's identities to a neutral when making a deal with them] so I think it's unlikely that he'll only steal from villagers now. I don't know how many of us role-claimed to him, [I didn't] but if we're worried about him giving all the info to the elims later, as Rand said, he might as well say it all here in the thread. Three people already public-roleclaimed because of that....I'm not sure if it's worth lynching him. What else could he do to help the elims? [This isnt a rhetorical quesion, btw]. If most of us agree on this, I could remove my vote and place it on someone else [like Straw]. 

 

It's this final post that gives me a village lean. I don't like all the people who are suggesting we'll need to lynch stink at some point, makes me suspicious. He also mentioned that he's been "lazy," which maybe explains all of the small posts (that gave me a more a going under the radar vibe.

 

Crimson: My main thought on crimson comes from day 2 when he joined the neutral bandwagon on Randuir. If Randuir is evil this would give him a heavy village lean in my mind. My initial impression is that he was a neutral, do we know all neutrals now? He's been pretty low profile, but I suspect that's an experience thing, I've never played with him before so I'm unfamiliar with his playstyle. Very little read on him.

@randuir Is that satisfying?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

@randuir you can expect more activity from me in a few hours; I'm driving home right now

[STINK he/him]

I've been trying to kind of write this post, but I see no way for it to actually really do anything so might as well post it now.

First, I'll just say that basically what everyone is saying about me is right, in that my play has been really bad and tbh I want to lynch STINK. Sure, there's some little details that are wrong but for like 99% of it, I've just been bad. 

Secondly, no-one's really had any PMs with me since N1, so no PMs from Elims. So yeah, can't use that to come up with some random logic.

Can't really write anything. Play's been horrible. Just, i dont even know.

Ciao,

STINK

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, STINK said:

I've been trying to kind of write this post, but I see no way for it to actually really do anything so might as well post it now.

First, I'll just say that basically what everyone is saying about me is right, in that my play has been really bad and tbh I want to lynch STINK. Sure, there's some little details that are wrong but for like 99% of it, I've just been bad. 

Secondly, no-one's really had any PMs with me since N1, so no PMs from Elims. So yeah, can't use that to come up with some random logic.

Can't really write anything. Play's been horrible. Just, i dont even know.

Ciao,

STINK

I'm sorry for reacting the way I did earlier. I made an unfair assumption based on our interactions, which kind of painted you in a worse light. I don't really think you getting lynched is the solution, here. I want everyone to be able to participate in these games and have fun. I just don't want people to have fun at the expense of other's. As long as you don't do that, you're good in my book.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Paranoid King he/him]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Uh. PK, how do you know Straw is an elim?

I don't know for sure, but even if he's not, so much discussion on the early days was centered around him that it would help us find an elim anyways.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Straw

I have doubts about Straw. I think he could be good, but I don't want to waste a lynch on STINK, and Straw dying can, imo, resolve Aster's alignment quite a bit. I can see reasons for Aster's actions so far from either alignment, although I do think it's more likely he's evil (and that Straw, in turn, is good), due to his explanations for his actions (or lack there of, I guess). Either way, I think there's a really good chance one of the two is teammates with Yitzi, and I believe figuring that out sooner rather than later will help this game get back to being productive.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Straw he/him]

@Amanuensis Why would you vote on me if you think I'm good?