Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@randuir well I read it hehe...I said so in my first post of this cycle 

[Stick. she/her]

sigh

Stink's vote was rioted, it seems. I predicted this (:D) Though why would anyone waste their vial like that.

[Arraenae]

Julie huddled miserably against a wall, hungry beyond belief and sopping wet. She held her hand against her stomach and whimpered. So far, she'd missed two meals. Two meals! How did the others handle it? If Julie didn't get breakfast this morning, she might die of starvation.

What would Mom think, if she saw Julie now? Or, oh Harmony, what if Dad saw her? He'd say he supported her right to experiment but it was clearly time to give up and go home where it would be safe and warm and she'd have food...

Julie reached into a pocket and took out an earring. Her fingers, numbed by the cold, fumbled and dropped it into a puddle below.

"Rust and Ruin," Julie muttered under her breath. She picked the earring up and wiped it on her damp shirt, not that it made any difference anyways.

She could've sworn that back in New Seran, she'd heard Harmony tell her to come here. But now... Maybe she'd just imagined the whole thing.

Harmony...if there was any time that I ever needed your guidance, it's now. Julie put the earring in and tried her best to meditate in the cold and the damp with empty belly in a city that she didn't know. What she would give if she could see any curl of mist, hear any word of advice, no matter how vague or insubstantial it was...

Harmony stayed silent.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Well... stink. Now what? Are PMs open? And if straw wasn't an elim, who is? 

Guess I'll have to go back and do another analysis. Again. *sigh* 

Edited July 4, 2017 by The Flash

[DeTess she/her]

19 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Well... stink. Now what? Are PMs open? And if straw wasn't an elim, who is? 

PM's are open.

8 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Tin has been burnt, and PMs are open. Remember to always check the thread before PMing.

 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

7 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Also one thing I thought was super weird when I caught up on the previous cycle was that @OrlokTsubodai was trying to get Joe lynched? Huh? Why would you put forth such a completely useless lynch idea...sorry but...lynching a neutral who hasn't even done anything to warrant a lynch and it would be a wasted day for the village imo. 

Brightness, at some point there is going to be an attempted mislynch on Joe, to allow Wilson (the parole officer) to achieve her win condition. My suggestion was that of all the lynches we (those who would quite like to see Wilson achieve her win condition) could disrupt, this wasn't a bad one. Better that we did this last cycle than causing a mislynch towards the end of the game, or disrupting a lynch that would be critical information wise.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm not surprised, but I am disappointed. I'll do a comb through of D1 because I'm pretty sure that with Straw being a villager, at least one eliminator wanted him lynched that day.

Ooh, pick me, pick me! Or Elenion, actually. I definitely had a way better reason to vote on Straw D1 than either him or Rae, but Rae is clean. Also, I would have to look back, but I think that the lynch on Straw last cycle would be quite a bit more likely to be lead by an eliminator. Mostly because you clearly said who you would be looking at next if he flipped village, and there was a lot of easily redirected momentum on Stink.

Edit (having looked back): I would say the two likely candidates are _Stick_ and Flash, with my money on Stick for both mentioning Straw first and placing the first vote on him.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Araris Valerian

[DeTess she/her]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Edit (having looked back): I would say the two likely candidates are _Stick_ and Flash, with my money on Stick for both mentioning Straw first and placing the first vote on him.

Hate to kick more suspicion my way, but I think I suggested Straw as alternate lynch target first.

Quote

I would actually advice not role-claiming any more than has already been done. Better to let the 'Inevitable' play out, than making sure it happens.

I'd actually prefer to take STINK out, in part for what Asterion mentioned above, but I'm down for pursuing an alternate target as well. If we do pursue an alternate target, the bandwagon on him should remind STINK that just because he's Neutral, he isn't above village retribution if his actions are perceived to be far too much in favor of the elims.

Speaking of alternate targets, if we do go that way I'd suggest Straw (keeping my vote on STINK for now as a quick majority hammer wouldn't be too bad in my opinion). There's been some suspicious circumstances around him (the defense by Yitzi, for example), and if he proves elim, it might clear some other main suspicions (such as Asterion).

Flash stated agreement with me, and Stick threw the first vote.

Edit: No wait, stick did mention a possible Straw lynch before me:

Quote

Okay I've thought some about this, and wasting a day doesn't seem like the best option. I think we may have overreacted a bit. Plus, now that he can't steal from the Ringleader, I think we're fine, mostly. Like, he's going to steal more vials, of course, but that his win condition so...I doubt he knows who all the elims are, as Aster suggested [I, at least, wouldn't reveal my whole team's identities to a neutral when making a deal with them] so I think it's unlikely that he'll only steal from villagers now. I don't know how many of us role-claimed to him, [I didn't] but if we're worried about him giving all the info to the elims later, as Rand said, he might as well say it all here in the thread. Three people already public-roleclaimed because of that....I'm not sure if it's worth lynching him. What else could he do to help the elims? [This isnt a rhetorical quesion, btw]. If most of us agree on this, I could remove my vote and place it on someone else [like Straw]. 

However, Straw was a possible lynch target, especially since he had been the ringleader's intended target, so I'm not sure if the elims would have had to interfere to set it off. Also, since STINK has claimed to not have been acting on the request of the elims, they might not actually have had much of a preference about whether Straw or STINK died.

Edited July 4, 2017 by randuir

[Amanuensis he/him]

I think the Flash is probably good, due to how quickly he reacted to Yitzi's comment about eliminators being scared of me. It could have been a distancing attempt, but it felt reflexive to me, rather than preordained. Stick could go either way, but I think I have a better lead. I'll talk more about that later, though.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Elenion he/him]

Roger Elariel had been one of those that had joined the bucket brigade. Sopping wet from the rain, his sore hands moved bucket after bucket to the fire, where some other miserable soul tossed them onto the flames. Suddenly, there was an outbreak of gunfire from the barricade, followed by the yells of sentries and the demands of constables. That alone wouldn't have given Roger pause, but one of the voices was eerily familiar, slicing through the rainy haze like a knife and embedding itself into his mind.

"Father!" Roger yelled and raced for the barricade, "Have you come to shoot your own son?!"

But as the Elariel heir reached the barricade, the constables and the voice of his father had faded back into the mist.

"Did any of you see a House Lord amongst the constables?" Roger said, faith in his sanity doubtful.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@randuir That post by Stick is the one I was referring to.

[Stick. she/her]

@Araris Valerian As Rand said, safer play for the elims would've been waiting for someone to vote on Straw first (I think a straw lynch was kinda inevitable) and then join the wagon if needed. Or just, yknow, let the village waste a day on lynching a neutral. 

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Sorry not gonna be very active today except checking in every now and then cuz of the holiday (Happy Independence Day all!) 

Edited July 4, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Arraenae]

5 hours ago, Elenion said:

"Did any of you see a House Lord amongst the constables?" Roger said, faith in his sanity doubtful.

Julie perked up at the sound of a voice.

"Who's there?" she called out. She got up and started walking towards the voice. "Oh, thank Harmony I've found someone. I was getting really lonely out there."

Julie kept walking until she found a young man. "Hi, I'm Julie from New Seran. Here to protest for worker's rights. What about you?"

[Elenion he/him]

5 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Julie perked up at the sound of a voice.

"Who's there?" she called out. She got up and started walking towards the voice. "Oh, thank Harmony I've found someone. I was getting really lonely out there."

Julie kept walking until she found a young man. "Hi, I'm Julie from New Seran. Here to protest for worker's rights. What about you?"

Roger didn't answer the question for a second, thinking too much about what should have been a simple response.

"I guess it's because Father is on the wrong side of history, and I'm here to make up for it."

He purposefully left the details vague. It was already a miserable morning, with the rain and the fatigue, and he didn't want to dredge up any more painful memories than that phantom voice already had.

"I could never be proud to carry his name. But tell me about your father--he seems to have raised you right. What is it like to have a real father?"

Edited July 5, 2017 by Elenion
changed RP to fit characterization

[Stick. she/her]

Striker's posts:

D1

1) Gives advice to neutrals: create PMs, avoid role-claiming in-thread. Gives advice to mistings: make PMs for strategizing, but PMs are dangerous, though we need them N1. Is suspicious of Jond but will wait to see what others' suspicions are. 

2) Will analyse later, but Straw is suspicious. 

3) Gives thoughts on first 5 pages of turn. Is suspicious of Rand and Straw.

N1

4) Did not like Jond lynch. Forgot to vote last turn. Will post analysis later.

D2

5) Answers Aman's question about thoughts on a few players: Neutral/Elim read on Straw bc PMs. Neutral/slight village read on Rand. Is not sure of Stick or Yitzi, will say more about them later. BR seems village, but she always seems village. 

6) Clarifies why he was suspicious of Jond [because he was evil in lg34]. He had thought Stink was a bad lynch because he trusts him due to their PM. Thinks Straw's PM thing was NAI. Is leaning village on Rand because of the neutral bandwagon on him D1, which mightve been part of their deal wit the elims. Doesnt see why people want to lynch Aster.

7) Aman explained, and role claimed. Striker is now convinced and votes Aster. Will do analysis later.

8) Changed vote to Yitzi after Aman asked him and a few others if theyre willing to do so.

9) Analysis post. Elim reads: Flash, Straw. Neutral/no reads: Straw, Shqueeves, Len, Stink. Village reads: BR, Aman.

N2

10) Tells Dalinar that he [Striker] voted on Aster after Aman explained the reasoning and then switched to yitzi after Aman gave better reasoning for that.

D3

11) Votes on Stink. Claims tineye with two charges left [now one charge left]. 

12) Switches vote to Straw. Might lynch Stink some other day.

13) Mayoring did come up in the QF.

---

Stuff I'd like to point out:

- Never did give his thought on me or Yitzi. Could be elim partners with him.

- Some things in post6 contradict posts 3, 2.

- Before post7, Aman gave a detailed explanation that also included that he's 90% sure that yitzi is evil. Yet Striker chose to vote Aster, until post8 where he switched it upon Aman's request.

Overall: slight elim read. could be neutral.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Striker's posts:

D1

1) Gives advice to neutrals: create PMs, avoid role-claiming in-thread. Gives advice to mistings: make PMs for strategizing, but PMs are dangerous, though we need them N1. Is suspicious of Jond but will wait to see what others' suspicions are. 

2) Will analyse later, but Straw is suspicious. 

3) Gives thoughts on first 5 pages of turn. Is suspicious of Rand and Straw.

N1

4) Did not like Jond lynch. Forgot to vote last turn. Will post analysis later.

D2

5) Answers Aman's question about thoughts on a few players: Neutral/Elim read on Straw bc PMs. Neutral/slight village read on Rand. Is not sure of Stick or Yitzi, will say more about them later. BR seems village, but she always seems village. 

6) Clarifies why he was suspicious of Jond [because he was evil in lg34]. He had thought Stink was a bad lynch because he trusts him due to their PM. Thinks Straw's PM thing was NAI. Is leaning village on Rand because of the neutral bandwagon on him D1, which mightve been part of their deal wit the elims. Doesnt see why people want to lynch Aster.

7) Aman explained, and role claimed. Striker is now convinced and votes Aster. Will do analysis later.

8) Changed vote to Yitzi after Aman asked him and a few others if theyre willing to do so.

9) Analysis post. Elim reads: Flash, Straw. Neutral/no reads: Straw, Shqueeves, Len, Stink. Village reads: BR, Aman.

N2

10) Tells Dalinar that he [Striker] voted on Aster after Aman explained the reasoning and then switched to yitzi after Aman gave better reasoning for that.

D3

11) Votes on Stink. Claims tineye with two charges left [now one charge left]. 

12) Switches vote to Straw. Might lynch Stink some other day.

13) Mayoring did come up in the QF.

---

Stuff I'd like to point out:

- Never did give his thought on me or Yitzi. Could be elim partners with him.

- Some things in post6 contradict posts 3, 2.

- Before post7, Aman gave a detailed explanation that also included that he's 90% sure that yitzi is evil. Yet Striker chose to vote Aster, until post8 where he switched it upon Aman's request.

Overall: slight elim read. could be neutral.

Okay, honestly, I never gave my thoughts on you or Yitzi because I've actually been very lazy this game. Besides for the pst couple days due to my trip, I've actually had plenty of time to analyze, I just haven't. It's mainly because this game has so many posts, it's daunting to go back and read through it all. My first true analysis post took me forever, and I only analyzed a few people. 

Most of why I changed my thoughts on Straw and Rand D2 was because of events that had happened since I'd last been suspicious of them, plus I felt others' arguments for them were stronger than those against them. Now of course, I've changed my mind on lynching Straw, mostly because of the bandwagon, and some better explanations than mine. I do realize how easy it would be for an elim to just ride on other people's votes and reasonings, and I'm trying to not do that, but it's so much easier to just follow everyone else.  I am gonna try harder to make my own opinions, but don't expect too much lol

Wait, Aman did that? I think I must've forgotten about that, whoops. But I don't see how that affects whether I'm an elim or not. I was confused as to why so many people wanted to lynch aster, and Aman answered really well in my opinion, so I decided to go with him. I later changed my vote to Yitzi because I think Aman made a better argument for him instead, and I trusted his judgment better than I did mine. Mostly because he was a claimed village role and he's way more experienced than I am.

I definitely understand why people are so suspicious of me, but that's mostly just because I've been lazy. I'm sorry about that, honestly.

[Stick. she/her]

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Wait, Aman did that? I think I must've forgotten about that, whoops.

Did what?

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I definitely understand why people are so suspicious of me, but that's mostly just because I've been lazy. I'm sorry about that, honestly.

Well, your tone plays a huge part in why I said 'slight' elim read. Your posts mostly sound village.

I think I'll do Araris' posts next

[Paranoid King he/him]

So here's the things people said about Straw on D1:

Spoiler

 

Legend:

Too many PMs/Group PMs

Joe

Yitzi

Stink

 

<p5>Stink: Wants to see Straw's graph (vote)

Orlok: Wants to know Straw's thoughts

<p6>Stick: Straw's behavior is similar to that in LG33, where he was a villager, [but] he acted pretty much the same way in a game where we were elim teammates.

BR: normal behavior...only saw him as a villager in one game so far

<  Straw finishes up PMs with everybody, goes to make group PMs  >

Stink: Straw's graph was satisfying (unvote)

<p7>Stink: Straw for serious this time (vote)

Stink: Because of too many PMs

Araris: Straw has too many PMs (vote)

<p8>BR: Doesn't suspect either Straw or Stink

BR: Odd that Stink is accusing Straw of too many PMs when he is guilty of the same thing

Aster: 2 PMs/player is excessive

Aster: Stink/Straw worth voting on D1 because of so few leads. (Does not vote)

BR: Straw and Stink can't both be elims (because they're accusing each other)

BR: And Stink's vote seems more justified than Straw's

<p9>Lopen: Stick claims not to understand votes. Might be an elim.

Stick: I would care about getting them lynched as an elim

Lopen: Straw/Stink seem okay. Straw's a little more villager than Stink

Stink: Can't wait for Straw to be an elim

Crimsn: Slightly suspicious of both. Stink asks for role claims, Straw does have too many PMs

Jon: Stink, Straw, I don't think either of you are, or think the other are, elims.

Yitzi: a lot of PMs are good for the village, right? Straw's PM was potentially useful. Stink's had no good content.

Rae: Elims can PM, too

Wilson: All of Straw's PMs just asked, "What are your thoughts on the game". Group PMs are useless. I gave Straw thoughts, Straw gave none back. Yitzi's defense is suspicious.

Drake: The PM thing doesn't seem to indicate alignment

Yitzi: In one game, sent a PM that was weak. Lopen slipped up. PM helped. Didn't see group PMs from Straw

<p10>Stink: Yep, Straw made group PMs

Yitzi: Yeah, those people should make a new PM without Straw

Randuir: Yep. In 3 group PMs with Straw. Useless.

BR: Voted on straw early in other games. Not going to do so in this one

Arinian: Stink is annoying people. Straw is posting graphs and PMs. Both typical playstyles.

Stick: No, Straw does seem suspicious. Might vote on him later.

Yitzi: A villager tends to get lynched D1 anyways. I don't think elims are particular about which one. Better for them to keep suspicious villagers alive.

Randuir: Sharing what Joe said in thread is good. Looks like he was trying to find an elim.

Randuir: Actually, Straw only made 1 group PM with me. PK made the other 2.

Randuir: Joe seems to be working for elims. I'd rather take out a neutral than a villager

<p11>Yitzi: Could be that Straw is the parole officer

Arinian: Straw might be trying to trick us. Where is Joe?

BR: Straw is telling the truth (Got a PM from Joe herself)

Stink: Straw is an elim. We don't know what Joe is. Therefore, I vote Straw

Randuir/BR: Straw/Stink aren't doing alignment-indicative things

Stink: Let's get back to Straw. He's evil. Eeevil.

<p12>Rae: Joe seems to be a more-or-less inactive neutral. Better to lynch Straw. (votes)

Wilson: Would rather lynch Straw than Joe. But not going to yet.

Rae: Straw's not being helpful to the village. No useful discussion, no reveals, no useful PMs. Joe is making an impact.

Stick: Straw should vote on Stink if he doesn't want to hit a neutral.

Randuir: Straw's making PMs. That's not unusual.

<p13>Elenion: Stink reads village to me. Better to vote on Straw than Joe. (votes)

Striker: Straw seems very suspicious

Joe: Yep, I'm the convict. Planned to help the elim team.

Aman: Still catching up. Straw reads town. Lynching him is a bad idea.

Lopen: SAME

Aman: Willing to lynch anyone who is trying to lynch straw, as well as those who want to vote on him but haven't.

<p14>BR: Straw reads neutral

Stick: Suspicion on Straw is because of the PMs, especially group PMs

Rae: Votes feel stagnant. Time to shake things up. (Unvotes)

Yitzi: Straw's playstyle isn't best for village, but doesn't seem like elim. Better to vote Randuir (Votes on Randuir)

<p15>Araris: I didn't join a bandwagon on straw. Claincy once started group PMs as an elim. Others seem to be voting as an alternative to Joe, which is bad

Flash: Too many PMs (votes)

Aman: You're on my list now, flash.

Flash: Better Straw than Joe

Flash: Oops, I hopped on a bandwagon. Better Stink than Straw (Changes vote to stink)

Stick: Stink claims neutral, which was your reason for not voting Joe

<p16>Joe: Doubts that Straw is an elim

Seonid: Why is there a bandwagon on Straw just because he PM'd everybody?

<p17>PK: Straw doesn't seem evil. He's just using PMs more while he has them.

Elenion: Better Straw than Joe, Stink asked me to, I wanted to place a vote.

Aster: Straw is voting on Randuir, a current inactive (votes)

<p18>Elenion: Would rather see Straw lynched than Rand

Aman: Hmm. Randuir is being bandwagoned. Maybe Straw is evil after all.

Aman: If Straw is evil, Flash is good for sure

<p19>Aman: Yitzi has been defending Straw without defending him. Probably evil.

Aman: Straw is being active. Maybe he's evil. He revealed Joe's deception, so he might be good, though.

<p20>Lopen: Yitzi's defense of Straw is strange. His reasons for voting on rand are off, too.

Stink: Yitzi is clearly village. Have you PM'd him? (Likely that Stink contacted elims by this point)

<p21>Stink: Vote straw!

<p22>Aman: Rand and Straw are ideal votes

<p23>Crimsn/Orlok//Stick/BR: (Vote on Jon)  

(Why did I do this?)

(I forgot how long D1 was)

(18 pages)

(Never doing this again)

 

Alright, so...

Not sure how helpful this whole thing will be, but here are some of my thoughts:

• Yitzi supported reinstating PMs without Straw in them. I guess Lopen died, but Dalinar is probably good. (Because that was Yitzi's PM group)
• Stink wanted Straw lynched. Possible that he had contacted the elim team on early in the cycle, and was pushing for them to lynch straw
• Aman was vehemently against killing Straw until Randuir was attacked. Might have been a diversion to get Aman to suspect Straw
• Although the elim target seemed to be Straw, Jon was lynched. The Jon voters might all be villagers.  
• Flash didn't seem like he knew what was going on. I'd guess he's a villager, because the elims would have filled him in a bit.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Paranoid King
Nothing is working right

[DeTess she/her]

I'm updating some of my current reads, and encountered something that is potentially of interest. @asterion137, you mentioned during D2 that you had a post with lots of reads that accidentally got deleted. Was the read on Yitzi as you later presented it also already part of that deleted post, or did you add that one later?

[Arraenae]

14 hours ago, Elenion said:

"I could never be proud to carry his name. But tell me about your father--he seems to have raised you right. What is it like to have a real father?"

Julie thought for a moment. "Well, he mostly lets me do what I want. Originally, he didn't want me to come here. At first he wanted to hire a Coinshot escort to follow me. I talked him out of that, because we don't have the money for that. He wanted me to take on the family business, but after I told him I wanted to study metallurgy, he passed it on to my sister."

[STINK he/him]

1 hour ago, Paranoid King said:

Stink wanted Straw lynched. Possible that he had contacted the elim team on early in the cycle, and was pushing for them to lynch straw

im not repeating myself

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Did what?

Well, your tone plays a huge part in why I said 'slight' elim read. Your posts mostly sound village.

Oh, sorry, I was following the things you pointed in out in each of my paragraphs. I was talking about how you said Aman made a post saying how he was pretty sure that Yitzi was an elim. 

Also, yeah, I can totally see that too. Also, thanks for the slight elim read, I guess? lol

[Elenion he/him]

52 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Julie thought for a moment. "Well, he mostly lets me do what I want. Originally, he didn't want me to come here. At first he wanted to hire a Coinshot escort to follow me. I talked him out of that, because we don't have the money for that. He wanted me to take on the family business, but after I told him I wanted to study metallurgy, he passed it on to my sister."

Roger chuckled slightly, "I'm sure my father didn't want me to come here either. He never wanted me to do anything except sit around in one of our estates. Occasionally he let me go to a ball, but that was very rare. My father had many enemies; he said it was part of being in the shipping business. Your family wouldn't happen to be in shipping too, by any chance?"

[Arraenae]

26 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Roger chuckled slightly, "I'm sure my father didn't want me to come here either. He never wanted me to do anything except sit around in one of our estates. Occasionally he let me go to a ball, but that was very rare. My father had many enemies; he said it was part of being in the shipping business. Your family wouldn't happen to be in shipping too, by any chance?"

Julie shook her head. "No, we do textiles. We ship all over, even to the Roughs, which was why I came here to protest againnst taxation without representation. See, we get taxed twice, once when the cloth enters Elendel, and once when it leaves. It's blatently unfair and favors businesses in Elendel. But whrn I saw this going on, I decided that worker's rights are a worthy cause too."