DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 Just now, asterion137 said: Rand is dead btw Wait really? Well shoot. Okay.
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Author Posted July 10, 2017 D: I got distracted and forgot about rollover... Cycle is over...
Haelbarde he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Author Posted July 10, 2017 Day 5 To come later. Arraenae was killed. They were a Friend of the ABC and the Ringleader. Cycle ends at the normal time so is ~46 hours away: Player List Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Name Name (Straw) - has a name ABC Roleless Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble ABC Smoker Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... ABC Thug Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Dandi (_Stick_) Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? ABC Roleless Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Infiltrator Roleless Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path ABC Scavenger Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college ABC Ringleader Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) 3
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 Well there goes our one confirmed villager. It's annoying that we didn't have PM open last night.
little wilson she/her Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 Just read through Drake's analysis during the night. Drake, not only is Rand dead, Lopen is too. Lopen was killed by the eliminators on the second night. 1
StrikerEZ he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 Well, that isn't very surprising. Sucks, but I was expecting it to eventually happen anyway. I knew I should've used my last tin charge on D4 because STINK stole it last night. So, for the other tineye(s) out there, have fun deciding when we need PMs for the rest of the game.
cloudjumper he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 Flash, could you please explain your comment on "dodging suspicion"? I am slightly suspicious of Flash right now. Also for the thing about trusting your gut reads in LG34, you had a lot of gut reads on villagers too so maybe it might be a good idea to not trust your gut reads as much as your regular reads. Leaning Elim for aster because of PMs, but this is pretty much a gut read. 1
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 3 hours ago, little wilson said: Just read through Drake's analysis during the night. Drake, not only is Rand dead, Lopen is too. Lopen was killed by the eliminators on the second night. Wow. I definitely need to catch up. And I guess Rae died. Shame, because she was RPing more than anyone else. And also confirmed village, which probably is what got her killed.
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) Ok. I've got some grand, pre analysis thoughts. I'm preparing to do a different type of analysis- analysis of other people's analysis. Now this is weird, because elims can make analysis too. BUT the number one rule of elims is: don't draw attention to your fellows. So my thoughts are that we need to stop focusing on little word choices when we try to lynch someone, and attempt to identify distancing better. Which is what I'm going to try to do. So I'll draw specific stuff from the one time Yitzi made a complete analysis, as I think that could be illuminating. I'm also looking for similar gut reads among various dead and alive villagers, because it's possible our guts are telling us a person is an elim, but we don't realize it. Finally, I will be suspending my gut reads in this analysis, because I can't trust anyone. So don't go "he changed his mind let's lynch him" on me. I really hope this works. Oh, and Cosette and Eponine? I would love for you to role claim. Please. It would make this game that much simpler, and I'll leave you alone (unless you're lying, about being a neutral. Maybe orlok could confirm if you guys decide to claim?) Edited July 10, 2017 by The Flash
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) 13 minutes ago, The Flash said: Ok. I've got some grand, pre analysis thoughts. I'm preparing to do a different type of analysis- analysis of other people's analysis. Now this is weird, because elims can make analysis too. BUT the number one rule of elims is: don't draw attention to your fellows. So my thoughts are that we need to stop focusing on little word choices when we try to lynch someone, and attempt to identify distancing better. Which is what I'm going to try to do. So I'll draw specific stuff from the one time Yitzi made a complete analysis, as I think that could be illuminating. I'm also looking for similar gut reads among various dead and alive villagers, because it's possible our guts are telling us a person is an elim, but we don't realize it. Finally, I will be suspending my gut reads in this analysis, because I can't trust anyone. So don't go "he changed his mind let's lynch him" on me. I really hope this works. Oh, and Cosette and Eponine? I would love for you to role claim. Please. It would make this game that much simpler, and I'll leave you alone (unless you're lying, about being a neutral. Maybe orlok could confirm if you guys decide to claim?) As for the first part, this is partially why I continue to suspect Stick. But I already mentioned, I need to catch up before I make a proper case for any suspicion. As for the second part, Cosette and Eponine don't really have any reason to role-claim, if the eliminators already know who they are via PM (and they never had to reveal in PM to draw out elims, because they had Orlok to do that). In that case, they probably aren't in danger of being night-killed, and if they are ever in danger of being lynched they can just reveal their neutral role. For the sake of the village, I wish they would reveal, so we could reduce our pool of suspects, but I can understand maybe why they haven't. It's probably a better play, as a neutral, to not reveal, if they can manage to do so and still get in contact with the eliminators. EDIT: Now I'm wishing I'd claimed elim to a neutral at the beginning of the game... Might have got them to let slip the identities of one of my supposed team mates before people caught on. Edited July 10, 2017 by Drake Marshall 1
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 Holy highstorms Batman SO MUCH ANALYSIS. This is not going to be easy. So far I've compiled a list of every analysis post, so I can easily track them. This was not a good idea. But first I would like to note that the top 4 people for analysis are: Aman, Rand, BR, and Stick. I would suggest that elims wouldn't make that many analysis posts. Now to go back and just go through the analysis posts I've identified... I'll edit my conclusions into this post if no one has said anything.
asterion137 he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 30 minutes ago, The Flash said: Holy highstorms Batman SO MUCH ANALYSIS. This is not going to be easy. So far I've compiled a list of every analysis post, so I can easily track them. This was not a good idea. But first I would like to note that the top 4 people for analysis are: Aman, Rand, BR, and Stick. I would suggest that elims wouldn't make that many analysis posts. Now to go back and just go through the analysis posts I've identified... I'll edit my conclusions into this post if no one has said anything. Could you drop those links in thread? I was going to go back and comb through all the posts for analysis and would appreciate it if you could list them for me
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 10, 2017 Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, asterion137 said: Could you drop those links in thread? I was going to go back and comb through all the posts for analysis and would appreciate it if you could list them for me Um actually I did it on paper... but I can turn it into a document. That might actually be helpful. I'll do that in the process of doing all this stuff. I'd just like to say, doing all this on mobile is a major pain. Ok here is the doc. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Z36kJKhJCi4Q0C625P0CtxHIvdDrm1KqYpyTOYj0I8s/edit?usp=drivesdk Edited July 10, 2017 by The Flash
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 Sorry I've been MIA for a while....just life and being tired heh Gotta look back at some stuff ...sometime (ugh I don't wanna do analysis any more can I be lazy for the rest of this game? ) Maybe it's everyone else's turn to do analysis and I can just read there's haha
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 Oh also I'll say that dismissing the neutrals as irrelevant might be inadvisable. It's already established that to walk a line of neutality, neutrals will be in contact with elims. A neutral could possibly arrange to not counterclaim an elim, in exchange for certain benefits. I'm not saying I think this is even likely. I mostly trust that our neutral claims so far have all been honest. Orlok's claim was made too early to be foul play, Joe's claim seemed genuine because very early on he asked in PM if I was the PO, and wilson's claim seems valid because she was defending neutrals before she ever claimed to be one. But to refuse to scrutinize neutrals at all might not be wise. Even if I do mostly trust our neutrals.
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said: Oh also I'll say that dismissing the neutrals as irrelevant might be inadvisable. It's already established that to walk a line of neutality, neutrals will be in contact with elims. A neutral could possibly arrange to not counterclaim an elim, in exchange for certain benefits. I'm not saying I think this is even likely. I mostly trust that our neutral claims so far have all been honest. Orlok's claim was made too early to be foul play, Joe's claim seemed genuine because very early on he asked in PM if I was the PO, and wilson's claim seems valid because she was defending neutrals before she ever claimed to be one. But to refuse to scrutinize neutrals at all might not be wise. Even if I do mostly trust our neutrals. Ok i see you there... but I am not doing any more work. I have spent the last 5 hours creating this little beauty: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kofV5UL-FPqrqVNK9KM_PEj-cqCRneZ6Zu_DQPo4euE/edit?usp=drivesdk . I am not going to have the brain power to analyze this tonight, and I have my first day of work tomorrow, so have at it. Note: it is NOT the thread. It does not have refutements or votes or anything like that. It is all ANALYSIS. Also I will note that the only neutral that did analysis (wilson) did it on dead villagers, which isn't as important to our present situation. Oh and one quick thing. Why did the elims kill lopen, of all people? Did he hit on something sensitive that the elims didn't want being shouted out? Or were they afraid of siblings? Was he hot on their trail? Idk. But it's something I've been wondering. Oh and is using Google doc ok? Am I allowed to share my notes on the thread? I don't want to break any rules lol Edited July 11, 2017 by The Flash
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 @The Flash I see that Lopen clan jab haha (fyi I'm pretty sure they killed him cuz they thought he was the ringleader)
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said: @The Flash I see that Lopen clan jab haha (fyi I'm pretty sure they killed him cuz they thought he was the ringleader) shh my brain is fried. I still think you're village, based on the sheer amount of analysis done (same with stick). And ok. Still might be worth looking through. Just in case. One last thing and then I'm going to bed. I would like to draw attention to Aman's comment: Quote Village’s best bet at victory is figuring out who among these are villagers and continuing to narrow it down. After participating in my championship qualifier game, I learned about something called “negative space hunting” which is based around not locking onto a player just because they do something suspicious, but continuing to investigate players that are giving neither good or bad vibes, as eliminators tend to be more careful about their image than we are. Whether it being a result of lurking, or not taking any firm stances on other players / other topics, I feel it is every villagers responsibility to try and get those struggling to participate or form solid opinions actively contributing. I think this strategy is one worth embracing. Now I'm going to bed. Edited July 11, 2017 by The Flash 1
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 47 minutes ago, The Flash said: Ok i see you there... but I am not doing any more work. I have spent the last 5 hours creating this little beauty: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kofV5UL-FPqrqVNK9KM_PEj-cqCRneZ6Zu_DQPo4euE/edit?usp=drivesdk . I am not going to have the brain power to analyze this tonight, and I have my first day of work tomorrow, so have at it. Note: it is NOT the thread. It does not have refutements or votes or anything like that. It is all ANALYSIS. Also I will note that the only neutral that did analysis (wilson) did it on dead villagers, which isn't as important to our present situation. Oh and one quick thing. Why did the elims kill lopen, of all people? Did he hit on something sensitive that the elims didn't want being shouted out? Or were they afraid of siblings? Was he hot on their trail? Idk. But it's something I've been wondering. Oh and is using Google doc ok? Am I allowed to share my notes on the thread? I don't want to break any rules lol Oh trust me I don't mean to say you should be doing more work. I'm pretty daunted by the size of this game too. 27 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said: @The Flash I see that Lopen clan jab haha (fyi I'm pretty sure they killed him cuz they thought he was the ringleader) Now you already know I'm not caught up, but why would they think he was the ringleader?
Stick. she/her Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 Sorry for not posting anything of much substance earlier, guys. :[ I did keep reading the thread but didn't feel up for posting Anyways, 15 hours ago, cloudjumper said: Leaning Elim for aster because of PMs, but this is pretty much a gut read. What did he say in your PM that makes you lean elim? 14 hours ago, Drake Marshall said: As for the first part, this is partially why I continue to suspect Stick. But I already mentioned, I need to catch up before I make a proper case for any suspicion. Sure, elims can do analysis, but I'm pretty sure elim!stick wouldnt. You can take a look at MR18, my only elim game. It's only 15 pages. 14 hours ago, Drake Marshall said: As for the second part, Cosette and Eponine don't really have any reason to role-claim, if the eliminators already know who they are via PM (and they never had to reveal in PM to draw out elims, because they had Orlok to do that). In that case, they probably aren't in danger of being night-killed, and if they are ever in danger of being lynched they can just reveal their neutral role. For the sake of the village, I wish they would reveal, so we could reduce our pool of suspects, but I can understand maybe why they haven't. It's probably a better play, as a neutral, to not reveal, if they can manage to do so and still get in contact with the eliminators. I think they're among the people who're not inactive but not posting very much, like the rest of the neutrals (Araris, Seonid and Dalinar come to mind). 7 hours ago, Drake Marshall said: Now you already know I'm not caught up, but why would they think he was the ringleader? They were probably misinformed in PMs or something if they killed Lopen because they thought he was the ringleader, I don't see any other way they'd come to that conclusion. It could just be a guess, though. Or maybe they killed him for other reasons entirely. Youre post last turn makes be lean village, btw. An elim would probably know Lopen was killed by their team @The Flash Really appreciate all the work you're putting into that analysis analysis I'm going to take a look at that doc in a few hours. Im also going to reread Aster's posts before voting we can't afford mislynches at this point.
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 2 hours ago, _Stick_ said: Sorry for not posting anything of much substance earlier, guys. :[ I did keep reading the thread but didn't feel up for posting Anyways, What did he say in your PM that makes you lean elim? Sure, elims can do analysis, but I'm pretty sure elim!stick wouldnt. You can take a look at MR18, my only elim game. It's only 15 pages. I think they're among the people who're not inactive but not posting very much, like the rest of the neutrals (Araris, Seonid and Dalinar come to mind). They were probably misinformed in PMs or something if they killed Lopen because they thought he was the ringleader, I don't see any other way they'd come to that conclusion. It could just be a guess, though. Or maybe they killed him for other reasons entirely. Youre post last turn makes be lean village, btw. An elim would probably know Lopen was killed by their team @The Flash Really appreciate all the work you're putting into that analysis analysis I'm going to take a look at that doc in a few hours. Im also going to reread Aster's posts before voting we can't afford mislynches at this point. I'm figuring it will help make up for my near uselessness the first few days of this game lol. I have my first day of work today, so I would love you guys to look through the document because I probably won't have time. now I might have time tonight after I get home... but we need to lynch someon. Aster was a suspicion, but only for the first half of the game. After nearly being lynched, she looks a lot more village. Drake is either genuinely out of the loop or an elim trying to appear as if he doesnt know what's going on. I'm almost tempted to lynch ecth simply because Stink says he's village (and remember the last player stink said was village?). Um, I think those are my rambly thoughts for now.
asterion137 he/him Posted July 11, 2017 Posted July 11, 2017 7 hours ago, _Stick_ said: What did he say in your PM that makes you lean elim? It's probably that I expressed suspicion of aman on N1...lol @cloudjumper srsly? I havent made any pms with you since you said this:
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