Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Stick. she/her]

23 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

One question: How does one search for posts by a certain member within a specified thread?

You can't do that. Though you can view all of a player's posts my visiting their profile, but then that's all posts from all threads.

[Arraenae]

3 hours ago, asterion137 said:

One question: How does one search for posts by a certain member within a specified thread?

One way to do that, if you're on a comouter, is to go throilugh each page and ctrl+f people's names.

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 hours ago, asterion137 said:

Hullo to the people who were discussing cloudjumper he said he would be on vacation for a week

Yeah i know... But if he's elim he's still elim whether he's on vacation or not. 

And brightness why did you vote on rae? Isn't she pretty much confirmed village? 

Edited July 8, 2017 by The Flash

[Stick. she/her]

16 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Yeah i know... But if he's elim he's still elim whether he's on vacation or not. 

And brightness why did you vote on rae? Isn't she pretty much confirmed village? 

Hm? She voted on Len :-P

[Arraenae]

@asterion137, how did you know that Cloud is on vacation?

[Stick. she/her]

Just realised PMs are closed huh

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Hm? She voted on Len :-P

Oh whoops I read it wrong. Never mind me lol. 

[asterion137 he/him]

4 hours ago, Arraenae said:

@asterion137, how did you know that Cloud is on vacation?

He said it in thread

also I'm his brother

Edited July 8, 2017 by asterion137

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Well, even if he's evil, if he's not putting in kills then he's not exactly hurting us, is he?

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Ecthelion III said:

Well, even if he's evil, if he's not putting in kills then he's not exactly hurting us, is he?

Yes he is. By being evil he is hurting us. Because we can't win the game unless we kill all the elims.

In fact, this post is giving me a super weird vibe. This is a very non-village attitude to have. We need to find ALL the elims, active or not. 

[Ecthelion III he/him]

Well prime situation is we get all the elims before he comes back right? Then if we haven't won but there's no night kill, we can lynch cloudjumper. It's more important that we kill those who are actually murdering us.

[Steeldancer he/him]

13 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Well prime situation is we get all the elims before he comes back right? Then if we haven't won but there's no night kill, we can lynch cloudjumper. It's more important that we kill those who are actually murdering us.

While I somewhat agree with you... I'm still set on my elim read of cloudjumper. And if he died and turned out to be elim, I would probably go after you next. Just saying. Now do you have any actual ideas as to who might be murdering us? If say there were 4 or 5 elims, as I would expect to be about typical, and we've already gotten one, that leaves 3 or 4 elims left. Now we now that our neutrals are not elims, so we can eliminate Stink, Joe, Orlok, and Wilson from the list. Due to roles, we know that Arranae is confirmed village. That leaves 15 people left. 2 more are neutrals, that we don't know publically yet. (It would be great if you could claim if we try to lynch you. We would like to not kill you ) In pretty sure Brightness isn't elim, and I know that I'm not an elim. That leaves 13 people as possibilities (14 if I include Brightness out of caution). So we have a 4/13 or so chance of getting an elim. Those possibilities should be able to hopefully be whittled down by analysis. I think I'm going to do a different type of analysis today, where I analyze other people's analysis. Perhaps there is a pattern in the gut reads or something, and I'll do my best to find it. 

Edited July 8, 2017 by The Flash
Bad math

[Ecthelion III he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Now do you have any actual ideas as to who might be murdering us?

Other than you, none particularly strong at the moment. I do think I'll look more into Aster's past posts.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Ecthelion III

[Arraenae]

1 hour ago, The Flash said:

Yes he is. By being evil he is hurting us. Because we can't win the game unless we kill all the elims.

In fact, this post is giving me a super weird vibe. This is a very non-village attitude to have. We need to find ALL the elims, active or not. 

We do want to find the elims, but finding the active elims takes precedence over finding the inactive ones. As Ecth said, inactive elims don't put in kills. They also don't interact with anyone, which makes knowing their alignment less useful.

Of course, a dead elim is always better than a dead villager.

1 hour ago, asterion137 said:

He said it in thread

also I'm his brother

Fair enough.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@The Flash Ecth and Rae are right, we should be looking for the more active elims first because it's in our best interest to get them out of the picture first. 

 

[asterion137 he/him]

2 hours ago, The Flash said:

It would be great if you could claim if we try to lynch you. We would like to not kill you

Claiming wouldn't clear her though since most roles aren't alignment specific

[Steeldancer he/him]

21 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@The Flash Ecth and Rae are right, we should be looking for the more active elims first because it's in our best interest to get them out of the picture first. 

 

Ok. Just make sure you aren't clearing people just because they aren't active. 

11 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

Claiming wouldn't clear her though since most roles aren't alignment specific

I'm talking to the two unknown neutrals. I would like them to claim if we try to lynch them. So we don't waste a lynch. Or just claim in general, that would be nice too. 

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

56 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Ok. Just make sure you aren't clearing people just because they aren't active. 

I don't...I just put them on hold  (they're just lower on the list)

[Stick. she/her]

 

@asterion137 @Paranoid King @Arinian @Drake Marshall @Seonid @Crimsn-Wolf You guys have been around and are not completely inactive. Why didn't you vote last turn? Are you just not suspicious of anyone or just busy or...?

[Paranoid King he/him]

Sorry 'bout that. I'm going to college in a week and this game sorta slipped my mind. I'll see if I can at least get a vote in next day turn.

[asterion137 he/him]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

 

@asterion137 @Paranoid King @Arinian @Drake Marshall @Seonid @Crimsn-Wolf You guys have been around and are not completely inactive. Why didn't you vote last turn? Are you just not suspicious of anyone or just busy or...?

I was gone for the day on a hike

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

 

@asterion137 @Paranoid King @Arinian @Drake Marshall @Seonid @Crimsn-Wolf You guys have been around and are not completely inactive. Why didn't you vote last turn? Are you just not suspicious of anyone or just busy or...?

I wasnt actually on at all last cycle. Been going through some stuff this week and havent really been up to talking to people or doing anything in general. I'll try to be more active this next cycle, but no gurantees on this cycle. Right now is a really hard time for me and my family.

[Stick. she/her]

7 hours ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

I wasnt actually on at all last cycle. Been going through some stuff this week and havent really been up to talking to people or doing anything in general. I'll try to be more active this next cycle, but no gurantees on this cycle. Right now is a really hard time for me and my family.

Hope everything gets better

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Well that's irritating. I was starting up an analysis post and it got deleted.

Still, I wasn't that far in.

Point is, possibly for the first time ever, I'm skimming through the entire history of the game and analyzing posts. My focus is going to be on Yitzi, seeing as they are a known eliminator.

Well, with one caveat, I'm skipping the first day cycle because that cycle was massive and mostly irrelevant. Well, I'm mostly skipping it anyway, there are some things about that.

 

Things I've noticed:

Day 1, three people voted on Yitzi. D1 bussing is rare, and I'd particularly say that of those three, I think Lopen is more cautious than that. So I'd lean village on those people.

Oh also, Randuir voting on neutrals. Personally I don't think an eliminator would have any good reason to vote on a known neutral. And Rand obviously isn't the PO. So I'd say that particular action makes me lean slightly village.

Also, Stick requested that people use bronze on Yitzi, then later edited in that maybe not since bronze can't alignment scan. This is interesting, but actually not terribly alignment indicative because I'm betting the eliminators have a smoker. It feels like the elims basically always have one

Flash posts a list of reads. Strongest two elim reads are Rae and myself (neither of which are elims I assure you ). But the third, final, and least certain eliminator read is Yitzi. That's interesting. I'll want to look at how the voting went on the cycle that Yitzi got lynched to form a more solid opinion about this. Distancing without actually putting Yitzi up for a lynch could be the work of an eliminator... Or could very easily be a villager who rightfully thought Yitzi was acting suspiciously.

Yitzi mentions that the Jondesu lynch d1 narrowly saved him. But there's another thing I found very interesting:

Quote

The only think in our favor is that it's pretty much impossible that I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are all elims.

Obviously eight people can't all be eliminators. But that's an odd way to rationalize the switch to Jondesu. Yitzi seemed to be trying to nudge people to thinking that the eliminators played no role in the switch.

Plus, it really, really sucks to lose a team mate on the first cycle, doesn't it.

So...

Rusts, this means I have to look at cycle 1, don't I...

I'm not doing it. WAY too much stuff there. I'm just going to pull up the vote tally again.

Quote

Vote Tally (with history):
Straw(4): Stink{1}, Stink{3}, Araris{1}, Rae{1}, Elenion{1}, Flash{1}, Asterion{1}
Drake(0): Stink{2}
Stink(0): Straw{1}, Straw{3}, Flash{2}
Joe(1): Randuir{1}, Straw{2}, Drake{1}
Randuir(3): Brightness{1}, Joe{1}, Orlok{1}, Straw{4}, Yitzi2{1}, Crimsn{1}, Flash{3}, Jondesu{1}
Elenion(0): Aman{1}
Jondesu(5): Rae{2}, Joe{2}, Crimsn{2}, Orlok{2}, Stick{1}, Brightness{3}
Cloudjumper(0): Seonid{1}
Shqueeves(1): PK{1}
Yitzi(3): Lopen{1}, Aman{2}, Brightness{2}, Seonid{2}

So... Of the folks that voted on Jondesu, Joe and Orlok are obviously not candidates for being eliminators, because we know they are neutral.

Brightness is not quite as likely as the others, because she voted on Yitzi before voting Jondesu. Still possible, but I already said, I think D1 bussing is a little bit rare.

I'd have to say Crimsn seems to be a prime candidate for suspicious vote switching. Although Crimsn's voting on that cycle also could easily just be bandwagoning by the looks of it, so that's a possible explanation. Still a little bit suspicious.

The other candidate, then, is Stick. I'm not the first person to wonder if Stick and Yitzi were working together I don't think. But I still note this as suspicious.

 

Moving on...

Flash asks Yitzi how Yitzi knew about Aman's reputation. Leaning more village on Flash.

Arin makes an analysis post, discussing Lopen and Yitzi. Feels NAI to me.

Oh, also, Yitzi posted a bunch of reads. A particularly interesting one on Joe:

Quote

Joe: His directing the lynch to Jondesu near the last minute (and it seems clear it was his initiative) would seem a lot to me like an elim trying to protect a buddy while maximizing the possible number of buddies he was protecting, but that would require his Convict claim to be a lie, which is dangerous due to having two people who can call him on it.  So I'm inclined to say that he really did simply want chaos like he claimed.

Here he implicitly assumes that the switch on Jondesu was to save an eliminator, when he himself was the one who got saved.

Obviously, that's not terribly relevant with regard to his alignment, since we already know he was an eliminator. But that assumption does maybe cement that eliminators did play a role in the switch.

And he chooses, from the list of people who made the switch, to highlight Joe. That's interesting, because Joe is obviously not a candidate for being an eliminator involved in the switch, being a neutral. He also says that Joe directed the lynch, which seems like a way to attach all the responsibility to Joe and not any of the other people who made the vote switch.

Interestingly enough, Stick, Crimsn, and Brightness were all absent from his list of reads, despite playing important roles in the vote switch. For someone who is ostensibly reading into that vote switch as much as Yitzi was, its quite odd to not even bring up those people.

 

Now, we have an interesting post by stick.

Quote

Wooo tried to get an idea of how elim!rand operates by reading lg30 but dang that game is hard to get without actually reading the ruleset [which I didn't]. But, I did get that most players had a village read on him. A quick glance at the elim doc [that is one long elim doc.] told me he had various strategies and things, and he played his parts carefully. Given his vote on Joe and its timing, it might just be a villager acting on their instincts. I'm not like entirely convinced he's village, though. I'm open to the possibilities of him being an elim or the PO. If he's evil, I'd say he's teammates with Straw- he was the one who revealed that Joe claimed neutral in-PM and offered to help the elims- trying to get the neutrals against the village. 

On 6/26/2017 at 1:45 PM, BrightnessRadiant said:

If anyone's wondering, I only switched votes at the end because I was feeling strangely like all of the top candidates might actually be village. I always doubt my votes for the first day lynch. So, I decided to help by switching my vote, and I also was trying to avoid a tie. Although, it would've been kinda cool to have a 3 or 4 way tie...not really good....just fun lol. 

Yeah...I feel like elims somehow just won't let one of their teammates get lynched D1 [or come dangerously close, even], which is part of why the wagon on Jond at the end seemed better, I guess. Less time till rollover = less time for elims to try and persuade others to steer away the lynch from a teammate= better chance of getting an elim. But well. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

First says some things about Rand that seem to be neither here nor there in regard to trusting or suspecting him. Seems a little bit like backtracking from earlier voting on Rand, without actually putting oneself on the line to defend him either.

The final part of this post is quite interesting. It is claiming that the eliminators altering a lynch last minute to save a team mate is dangerous... And then attempting to justify why Stick participated in altering a lynch last minute (which we later find out ended up saving an eliminator). I find that behavior interesting.

It's also a little interesting because the quote from Brightness wasn't really on the topic of suspicious vote changing. Is there a particular reason why they felt the need to address the possibility of suspicious vote changing?

 

 

Okay, this is taking a LOOOONG time and I need to do other things. Sorry.

So... I'm going to call it a day for now and get back to this later. You guys posted A LOT in this game.

But... In the meantime... My analysis right now leads me to point FoS at @Stick

That's subject to change as I get more caught up on the game, but yeah.

[asterion137 he/him]

2 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

Oh also, Randuir voting on neutrals. Personally I don't think an eliminator would have any good reason to vote on a known neutral. And Rand obviously isn't the PO. So I'd say that particular action makes me lean slightly village.

Rand is dead btw