Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Just now, The Flash said:

Which is why I said I would be willing to vote for a name. I know you neutrals must be in contact with at least one elim. To be honest, other than cloudjumper I don't really have anyone that I want to go after. I'm at a loss to do after that. Which is why I thought maybe we could make that mutually beneficial. You help us with our win condition, we help with Wilsons. And when you tell us the name, we would still vote on you, in a show of good faith. Then we could vote on the elim you (as in the neutrals) exposed the next day. it wouldn't necessarily win us the game, but right now we're kind of stuck. I think it's a great idea on my part. 

I know absolutely no Eliminators. Yitzi was the only one to make contact with a Neutral to my knowledge.

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I know absolutely no Eliminators. Yitzi was the only one to make contact with a Neutral to my knowledge.

Yeah i figured you wouldn't know any. I thought Orlok might. But it would be just my luck that Yitzi was the only elim who got in contact with the neutrals *sigh* 

Edited July 14, 2017 by The Flash

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 minute ago, The Flash said:

Yeah i figured you wouldn't know any. I thought Orlok might. But it would be just my luck that Yitzi was the only elim who got in contact with the elims *sigh* 

I think all the Elims got in touch with the Elims.

@STINK you want to toss a vote on me?

Edited July 14, 2017 by A Joe in the Bush

[Steeldancer he/him]

15 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I think all the Elims got in touch with the Elims.

@STINK you want to toss a vote on me?

I edited that lol. 

Ok. I've decided it's time to reveal my role, in the effort to get some more information. I am the village rioter . It was me who rioted stinks vote onto straw the other day (in my defense, I put in the action while the vote was still tied). Furthermore, I got in contact with Brightness, revealed my role, and she revealed... that she is also a village rioter? 

This is why she was suspicious of me, and why I was suspicious of her. 3 village rioters in this game? It's a little weird. (Jondesu was a village rioter, if you'll remember). However other than her role, I'm just not getting an elim vibe from Brightness. But seriously we need more information. I'm not suggesting a lynch on her. I just think we need to consolidate our information. We don't have anything truly helpful right now, and we need something to work with. Sorry Brightness for revealing your role, but it IS weird that there would be three village rioters. We need to consider all our options, and as Asterion said during the night turn, elims can make analysis. 

[little wilson she/her]

Yeah, um. The elims never contacted the neutrals again. Kind of hard to when PMs haven't been up. In fact, the only way I know of for one of us to know one of them is if they'd called in their deal with me and asked me to vote on someone. But they haven't (and sorry guys, but if Joe is going to be lynched today (or later), and you try to get me to vote on someone else, I'm not doing it. Just so you know. You can call that debt in on any day except the day Joe is lynched).

So, yeah. Plus, I kind of think giving a name in exchange for a lynch is a terrible idea. You want to know suspicions? Or anything else we might know? Maybe something Yitzi told us? Fine. But even if we did know the name of an eliminator right now, I wouldn't support handing it out to the thread. Maybe if more than one anti-neutral had been evil, but we've had all the others lynched (except Drake) and they were all village (which is what I'm convinced Drake is).

Full disclosure: for a time, I thought all the elims were secretly or publicly anti-neutral. During that time, I was in full support of the village. I practically was a villager in all but name. Hence going after all the anti neutrals. It fit so well with what Yitzi had been telling us about the elims wanting leverage (aka blackmail) against all of us. But that must've only been Yitzi, so now I'm back to being pure neutral. We've already helped the village. You just didn't know it. My win condition should've already been completed, but Aman died before that could happen. So now? We don't owe the village anything. Don't try to get anything out of us.

Edit: oh, and Joe.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Well guys, we're on the wire here. We need to coordinate a lynch, and not on a neutral. Ugh, clearly my analysis has been off since my gut vote on Yitzi. I'm a little suspicious of Aralis, but I think thats just playstyle. So I'm discarding that until later. Ecthellion is my best guess. Anyone else got something better? He (she?) has been very low profile all game, and just felt a little off for some reason.

[Steeldancer he/him]

29 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Well guys, we're on the wire here. We need to coordinate a lynch, and not on a neutral. Ugh, clearly my analysis has been off since my gut vote on Yitzi. I'm a little suspicious of Aralis, but I think thats just playstyle. So I'm discarding that until later. Ecthellion is my best guess. Anyone else got something better? He (she?) has been very low profile all game, and just felt a little off for some reason.

I'll go back and review those posts after I get home. But you make an interesting point... hmmm... 

I don't think we should lynch Joe this turn. Another turn, definitely. But right now I think a few too many things are hanging in the balance. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Excellent. I'd been meaning to start this myself. It's late enough in the game that we really should get round to this. Joe.

[Seonid he/him]

I'm all for giving all the neutrals their win conditions.

But, I expect 4 more Eliminators (6 total is too many, for a game in which there are 6 neutrals, but 4 total is probably too few for a game in which the neutrals could all align against them). Which actually means that the Elim + neutral block could potentially control the lynch right now. If they are all active.

You want Joe lynched @little wilson? Good. So do I. There are 12 non-neutrals left. 1/3 of them are against us. I'm not going to sacrifice my win con just so that you can get yours. And you shouldn't expect me to. The village doesn't owe you anything. You've said you helped us. From my perspective, I can't see anything. I'm not asking for a name or anything - it's not in your best interests and I fully get that. I'm not even asking for your help.

What I am asking for is for the village to step up, and discuss things, and not lynch Joe today because we need better targets and a lynch on Joe.

32 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

Excellent. I'd been meaning to start this myself. It's late enough in the game that we really should get round to this. Joe.

No we shouldn't. It's not worth it for the village. If we had gotten 2 Elims by now? Sure. But we are down to the wire. It's not lynch or lose now. And if we waste yet another cycle trying to lynch Joe, I can't see that the village can get back out of that hole!

To the village, whoever you are: if you join in a lynch on Joe today, I will consider that a sign of being an Eliminator. At the moment, I can support the lynch on Ecthelion

To the neutrals: tell me why this lynch is in the interests of the village. Tell my why this lynch won't be sacrificing my win con and the win con of 16 or 17 other players in this game just so that Wilson can get hers? If you present a convincing enough argument, I'm willing to listen and even lynch Joe, if you can show me how the village can win after lynching Joe today. But at the moment, I see a bright line of conflict between giving Wilson her wincon and getting my team to theirs. Help me resolve that conflict, and I'll be right with you.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Seonid
Added vote on Ecthelion

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Seonid, we made a deal with Aman, whereby I had Eponine protect Rae the cycle Aman died, in return for his supporting a lynch on Joe. Now, clearly things didn't work out, and Aman was targeted that cycle, not Rae, but we held up our end of the bargain. Aman had said that he'd PM other villagers to inform them of our agreement, but clearly hasn't. Whether or not you wish to abide by his bargain is up to you, but it's something tangible we've done. 

In this scenario of yours, Seonid, essentially no ground is gained or lost as a result of this lynch. It's net neutral. Your conjectured neutral-eliminator bloc loses a player, and one would presume that the eliminators would kill a villager tonight. Wilson, on the other hand, achieves her win condition.

Merely thinking on my feet, now, but the neutral players relative strength as a bloc will increase as the game progresses. If we don't force this through now, we will be able to do so later in the game, after another mislynch or two, and you essentially pigeon hole us into working with the eliminators to achieve it. If you let the lynch through, we can continue to be truly neutral, and so avert significantly increased pressure on the village.

[Seonid he/him]

Just now, OrlokTsubodai said:

In this scenario of yours, Seonid, essentially no ground is gained or lost as a result of this lynch. It's net neutral. Your conjectured neutral-eliminator bloc loses a player, and one would presume that the eliminators would kill a villager tonight. Wilson, on the other hand, achieves her win condition.

Merely thinking on my feet, now, but the neutral players relative strength as a bloc will increase as the game progresses. If we don't force this through now, we will be able to do so later in the game, after another mislynch or two, and you essentially pigeon hole us into working with the eliminators to achieve it. If you let the lynch through, we can continue to be truly neutral, and so avert significantly increased pressure on the village.

And that was exactly what I was looking for. In exchange for the lynch on Joe today, I want an agreement from the Neutrals that they will remain neutral and not create a neutral-elim voting bloc.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Seonid, Orlok is neutral. So that vote makes sense for him.

I guess I would like to say I am heavily against trying to solve the game by guessing role distributions, except in the case of seekers/kill roles, which this game doesn't have. I mean, there could be 4 (or more) village rioters, since it's not the most useful role for the village. And giving one team a lot of role manipulations can be easily balanced by giving the other team some smokers.

We need to get more players involved in discussion today, since we need at least 7 votes to stop a lynch on Joe (assuming the neutrals all vote). Although, Joe's list only has 5 neutrals on it. So maybe the pauper noble didn't get converted? The alternative is to listen to Seonid and kill Joe, although I don't really like that right now. While we have the numbers we do, I think we should use them to force lynch discussion. The neutrals can afford to wait a while to kill Joe, but we need information sooner rather than later.

Also, Joe, you are causing us a bit of a problem. The non-neutral votes won't really be able to be spread around at the end of the cycle, so likely we will have a big stack of village and elim votes on somebody to stop your wagon. That isn't going to be very helpful for analysis. The elims can hide behind "I'm voting to stop the Joe lynch."

As for my reads: I think 2 or 3 of the elims are hiding behind inactivity (or low activity). There are plenty of inactive players, and it isn't too hard to steer the lynch from one of them to the next without drawing attention. I think that also means that the people that have been brought up in recent cycles for lynches are probably village. We would likely see mote activity in a cycle if any elim thought there was a chance that the vote might swing on to them. I'm fairly sure that Flash and Brightness are clear. They've just been participating too much. Other players I'd guess village on are Seonid and Cloudjumper, both of who drew some attention last cycle but didn't really rise to the call. The same with Striker. He had 2 votes on him last cycle, and didn't really do much. From the early cycles, I would lean elim on Stick. And her participation the last couple of cycles might be a response to the suspicion on her.

However, right now I think we should lynch Drake. He's been lying low and hasn't really been brought up as a suspect, so he hasn't needed to be active. Last cycle, he voted on Stick, based on early cycle stuff, but didn't really make an effort to draw others to vote with him. There were already two other players up for the lynch that cycle, and the active players, Flash and BR, seemed convinced one of them was elim, so that was where the day was headed. A vote on Stick didn't serve any purpose, except perhaps for distancing if one of the two flipped elim.

[Elbereth she/her]

On 7/12/2017 at 2:45 PM, The Flash said:

Just coming up with ideas. Also if you go into the day 5, I created a document that compiles all analysis so far. You can use it to catch up. Also what a coincidence the game reflects your real situation (sort of) lol

Actually, no, it doesn't. >> I'm Eponine, not Cosette. *sigh* For which I'm slightly interested in murdering Hael.  

Anyway. First, Joe, obviously. 

Second, Araris, a couple things. One, there is a pauper noble. It's Orlok. Have you not been paying attention? The missing neutral of the six is Cosette, who hasn't revealed yet. 

Also, Joe isn't causing that much of a problem, I think? He's also ensuring that there is a lynch, and that people actually get on it rather than having only three votes in the entire cycle. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I was paying more attention to who was neutral that to which neutral had a specific role. The only neutral role I was paying attention to was STINK, for obvious reasons.

[Stick. she/her]

Vote tally:

Joe(3): Joe, Wilson, Orlok, El

Cloud(1): Flash

Ecth(2): Dalinar, Seonid

Drake(1): Araris

---

@The Flash, I'm having mixed reads on you right now. It seemed like you tunnel a lot on Striker, and now Cloud. I was suspicious of you early in the game, though last cycle did make me lean village due to the analysis compilation, I noticed that you didn't really give your say on what you collected in a doc, albeit useful it was. And then yeah...three village rioters does seem odd. I'm nearly certain BR is village. Speaking of BR, @BrightnessRadiant havent seen you post in a while.

Cloud is...hm. His PM thing with Aster was weird [he said he was leaning village due to his PMs with him in one post and said the opposite in another, iirc]. If he flips town, I'll have a solid village read on Flash.

@Paranoid King has said odd things early in the cycle. And never really explained the group PMs. Though I will no longer hold those against him, Straw flipped town, after all. I'd like you to post a bit more, PK.

@Ecthelion III has expressed suspicion on Flash and subtly defended Cloud. Could be worth keeping in mind, whichever way today's lynch goes. Apart from that, hasn't posted much.

Leaning slightly village on @Drake Marshall because of his kind of ill-informed post earlier and his suspicion on me seemed...genuine. I dunno, maybe it's just a gut read, in the end.

@Arinian made some helpful posts in the beginning but then disappeared. 

That's all the players I wanted to talk about, for now. I'll support a Cloud lynch, tbh, I think it would give us much helpful info, whatever alignment he flips. Unless he's the Convict's Ward. RIP, then.

I want to wait and get the others' opinions first though, do you want to lynch Joe today? Aman and Rae are confirmed villagers, and if they made a deal with the neutrals to help lynch Joe at some point, I think we should give it some thought.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I think Joe would let us know if he was the Convicts ward. Plus, I think I know who the Convicts ward is.

2 hours ago, Seonid said:

I'm all for giving all the neutrals their win conditions.

But, I expect 4 more Eliminators (6 total is too many, for a game in which there are 6 neutrals, but 4 total is probably too few for a game in which the neutrals could all align against them). Which actually means that the Elim + neutral block could potentially control the lynch right now. If they are all active.

You want Joe lynched @little wilson? Good. So do I. There are 12 non-neutrals left. 1/3 of them are against us. I'm not going to sacrifice my win con just so that you can get yours. And you shouldn't expect me to. The village doesn't owe you anything. You've said you helped us. From my perspective, I can't see anything. I'm not asking for a name or anything - it's not in your best interests and I fully get that. I'm not even asking for your help.

What I am asking for is for the village to step up, and discuss things, and not lynch Joe today because we need better targets and a lynch on Joe.

No we shouldn't. It's not worth it for the village. If we had gotten 2 Elims by now? Sure. But we are down to the wire. It's not lynch or lose now. And if we waste yet another cycle trying to lynch Joe, I can't see that the village can get back out of that hole!

To the village, whoever you are: if you join in a lynch on Joe today, I will consider that a sign of being an Eliminator. At the moment, I can support the lynch on Ecthelion

To the neutrals: tell me why this lynch is in the interests of the village. Tell my why this lynch won't be sacrificing my win con and the win con of 16 or 17 other players in this game just so that Wilson can get hers? If you present a convincing enough argument, I'm willing to listen and even lynch Joe, if you can show me how the village can win after lynching Joe today. But at the moment, I see a bright line of conflict between giving Wilson her wincon and getting my team to theirs. Help me resolve that conflict, and I'll be right with you.

You say it so much more eloquently... 

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Okayyyyyyy sorry I was gone peeps  I'm ashamed of myself lol

Okay so I was in contact with all of the neutrals except Elbereth...and I know they've actually helped the village more than once. In light of that I'm willing to give them what they deserve Joe it feels very strange to lynch someone out of love 

I still feel we can have enough analysis this cycle to set up for the next lynches without considering this a "wasted" lynch..which it isn't because they already helped us imo.

@The Flash I'm a little annoyed you revealed my role to the thread but since I'd already revealed it to like 10 players *shrugs haha. Btw, why do you suspect cloud again? When we were in pms I thought you trusted him? I'm finding that a bit inconsistent here? Plus when you asked if you should riot on the stink vs straw lynch I said no lol

 

 

[Steeldancer he/him]

9 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okayyyyyyy sorry I was gone peeps  I'm ashamed of myself lol

Okay so I was in contact with all of the neutrals except Elbereth...and I know they've actually helped the village more than once. In light of that I'm willing to give them what they deserve Joe it feels very strange to lynch someone out of love 

I still feel we can have enough analysis this cycle to set up for the next lynches without considering this a "wasted" lynch..which it isn't because they already helped us imo.

@The Flash I'm a little annoyed you revealed my role to the thread but since I'd already revealed it to like 10 players *shrugs haha. Btw, why do you suspect cloud again? When we were in pms I thought you trusted him? I'm finding that a bit inconsistent here? Plus when you asked if you should riot on the stink vs straw lynch I said no lol

 

 

Ps I asked if WE should. I decided to because I'm paranoid. I listed my reasons for suspecting cloud in the night turn. I did say sorry, but you get how weird the situation is. As I said, I still trust you lol

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

2 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Ps I asked if WE should. I decided to because I'm paranoid. I listed my reasons for suspecting cloud in the night turn. I did say sorry, but you get how weird the situation is. As I said, I still trust you lol

Heh it's fine...at least I know you really are a rioter 

I do honestly think you're village but I'm lost for who isn't haha

I feel like it prob isn't the more active analysis givers like you and stick...so maybe someone like araris, pk, or even cloud *shrugs

[Stick. she/her]

@BrightnessRadiant you know who the convict's ward is?

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

@BrightnessRadiant you know who the convict's ward is?

yes lol...I'll let you know if we ever get close to lynching them  

[Stick. she/her]

1 minute ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

yes lol...I'll let you know if we ever get close to lynching them  

works.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

They'll probably claim shortly. They have an interest in Joe's demise, and I'd rather neither side killed them.

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

Well I mean, I would prefer my 'father' not dying, but I understand the need for it. So, I will be placing my vote on Joe, as well. I am the secret Ward of Joe, and I would prefer to not die, this is true. Can't post much more now, since I am still at work, buttt. I understand the reason behind me needing to reveal myself, finally. 

[Stick. she/her]

Orlok your profile picture is triggering my OCD you should move it a little to the right asap

Ah, its Crimsn.

Joe

This doesnt mean discussion needs to die this turn, btw