Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Steeldancer he/him]

RIP brightness  it was nice working with you. Guess there really were 3 village rioters. Which makes me even more suspicious of the SMOKER- ecthelion . And stick, cloudjumper voted on yitzi instead of joe this last turn. Why wouldn't he just vote on joe if both he and Ecth were elim? 

[Stick. she/her]

20 minutes ago, The Flash said:

And stick, cloudjumper voted on yitzi instead of joe this last turn. Why wouldn't he just vote on joe if both he and Ecth were elim?

um. what? XD

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

um. what? XD

Whoops I meant ecth. Lol  

[Stick. she/her]

haha no he voted on Joe:

Quote

Vote Tally (with history)
Joe(10): Joe{1}, Flash{1}, Wilson{1}, Orlok{1}, El{1}, BR{1}, Crimsn{1}, Stick{1}, PK{1}, Ecth{1}, Cloud{2}, Seonid{2}
Cloud(0): Flash{2}
Ecth(4): Dalinar{1}, Seonid{1}, Flash{3}, Cloud{1}, Araris{2}, Joe{2}
Drake(0): Araris{1}

Vote Tally
Joe(10): Wilson, Orlok, El, BR, Crimsn, Stick, PK, Ecth, Cloud, Seonid
Ecth(4): Dalinar Flash, Araris, Joe

:P

[Steeldancer he/him]

18 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

haha no he voted on Joe:

I'll go now. I'm just too confused. He did vote on him earlier... but he changed his vote... 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, my top suspicions are Drake and Stick. I was leaning elim on Dalinar too, but his post encouraging mass votes on Ecthelion seemed really village last cycle. If Ecthelion flips elim, that would make me more suspicious of Stick and PK. I think since we spent an entire cycle of discussion around Ecthelion last cycle, it would be somewhat worth it to lynch him. But my vote is going on Drake for now.

[Stick. she/her]

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, my top suspicions are Drake and Stick. I was leaning elim on Dalinar too, but his post encouraging mass votes on Ecthelion seemed really village last cycle. If Ecthelion flips elim, that would make me more suspicious of Stick and PK. I think since we spent an entire cycle of discussion around Ecthelion last cycle, it would be somewhat worth it to lynch him. But my vote is going on Drake for now.

Why are you suspicious of me? And you seem to forget that Drake voted on me. Why would he do that if we were elim partners? 

And it's odd how you think an Ecth lynch would be worth it and vote Drake instead.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Hello guys! Please vote for Ecth! I might move Araris up on the hit list... 

[Seonid he/him]

I'm actually very suspicious of Araris,  and i want discussion much much more than a bandwagon on ecth.

So Araris,  you're subtly defending ecthelion and casting doubt on flash's methods. And now you vote on a counter to ecth. Seems an awful lot like team behavior to me.

And why are you suspicious of drake? I don't have a read yet, but I'd like better articulated suspicions if you don't mind

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, for starters I would like to say that with Flash leading discussion, there would probably be a bandwagon on Ecthelion, and we wouldn't gain anything from the discussion today, just information from the lynch outcome. That's why I opened with a vote on Drake. I'm pretty sure I demonstrated with my vote switch last cycle that I thought lynching Ecthelion would be more useful than Joe, with plenty of time left in the cycle for the villagers voting on Joe to follow me.

@The Flash Why does Ecthelion being a smoker make you more suspicious of him? There has been hardly any vote manipulation this game, and that sort of thing is way more useful for elims, since they can use it to win the game sooner. But if we need vote manips to control the lynch then the game is already over. Also, your call to lynch Ecthelion isn't productive for discussion. We have 48 hours. What are your thoughts on Drake, in more detail? I am suspicious of him because he both hasn't been brought up in discussion, and hasn't really participated himself. That is the perfect place for an eliminator to hide. Here's what I posted about him last cycle:

Quote

However, right now I think we should lynch Drake. He's been lying low and hasn't really been brought up as a suspect, so he hasn't needed to be active. Last cycle, he voted on Stick, based on early cycle stuff, but didn't really make an effort to draw others to vote with him. There were already two other players up for the lynch that cycle, and the active players, Flash and BR, seemed convinced one of them was elim, so that was where the day was headed. A vote on Stick didn't serve any purpose, except perhaps for distancing if one of the two flipped elim.

Also, aside from me disagreeing with you about Ecthelion, why are you suspicious of me?

 

@SeonidHow am I "casting doubt on Flash's methods?" I mean, I oppose a total bandwagon today, something you agree with. But I think anyone can see that he has been acting painfully village this whole game.

@_Stick_ I am suspicious of you for a couple reasons, starting with the lynch on STINK that switched to Straw. You both pointed Straw out as a target and then were the first to vote on him. Then, last cycle, you voted on Joe, which doesn't really make sense for a villager to do. I mean, Seonid's argument about keeping the neutrals "neutral" was okay, except that they hadn't interfered with the game at this point anyways. But aside from that sort of approach, lynching a neutral is the same as no lynch at all, and the lynch is how we get information. PK is suspicious for the same reason, but he has been way too inactive to be worth focusing on.

 

[Steeldancer he/him]

44 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, for starters I would like to say that with Flash leading discussion, there would probably be a bandwagon on Ecthelion, and we wouldn't gain anything from the discussion today, just information from the lynch outcome. That's why I opened with a vote on Drake. I'm pretty sure I demonstrated with my vote switch last cycle that I thought lynching Ecthelion would be more useful than Joe, with plenty of time left in the cycle for the villagers voting on Joe to follow me.

@The Flash Why does Ecthelion being a smoker make you more suspicious of him? There has been hardly any vote manipulation this game, and that sort of thing is way more useful for elims, since they can use it to win the game sooner. But if we need vote manips to control the lynch then the game is already over. Also, your call to lynch Ecthelion isn't productive for discussion. We have 48 hours. What are your thoughts on Drake, in more detail? I am suspicious of him because he both hasn't been brought up in discussion, and hasn't really participated himself. That is the perfect place for an eliminator to hide. Here's what I posted about him last cycle:

Also, aside from me disagreeing with you about Ecthelion, why are you suspicious of me?

 

@SeonidHow am I "casting doubt on Flash's methods?" I mean, I oppose a total bandwagon today, something you agree with. But I think anyone can see that he has been acting painfully village this whole game.

@_Stick_ I am suspicious of you for a couple reasons, starting with the lynch on STINK that switched to Straw. You both pointed Straw out as a target and then were the first to vote on him. Then, last cycle, you voted on Joe, which doesn't really make sense for a villager to do. I mean, Seonid's argument about keeping the neutrals "neutral" was okay, except that they hadn't interfered with the game at this point anyways. But aside from that sort of approach, lynching a neutral is the same as no lynch at all, and the lynch is how we get information. PK is suspicious for the same reason, but he has been way too inactive to be worth focusing on.

 

I already explained my suspicions. The defense of cloudjumper, the defense of inactive eliminators, and the vote on joe. Also yes there has been like no vote manipulations, but isn't a smoker like a classic elim misting role? That and vote manipulations. As it appears all the rioters were village, it makes it more likely that those other mistings would be elim. At least that is my logic. 

I am also suspicious of Araris, but I think there is something to be said about the information an Ecthelion lynch would provide. It would hard clear all those who voted on him in the last day turn, and provide insight on the alignment of Cloudjumper, Araris, and Stick. It just seems like its a good idea to me. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I know why you are suspicious of Ecthelion. I want to know your thoughts on Drake and on me.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, based on the participation so far in the thread, it doesn't look like we ware going to get much discussion out of this cycle anyways. If things are still this quiet by tomorrow then I'll switch my vote on to Ecthelion, and hopefully things will get a little better once he's dead.

[little wilson she/her]

17 hours ago, The Flash said:

isn't a smoker like a classic elim misting role? That and vote manipulations. As it appears all the rioters were village, it makes it more likely that those other mistings would be elim. At least that is my logic. 

Smoker is a classic elim role in a game with a cop role that finds alignment, since it provides cover. This game, however, does not have a cop that finds alignment. The Seekers in this game find role (assuming you used your role). This means that elims don't need alignment cover, and the smoker is only necessary for vote manipulation. But just because the village has all the vote manip doesn't mean the elims have all the smokers (minus Len). Maybe they have a couple, but they haven't claimed. Ecth isn't necessarily an elim Smoker, and lynching based purely on roles is usually a bad idea.

Most of your "suspicions" on Ecth aren't conclusive, since most of them are based on things that none of you (except the eliminators) know right now. His defense of Cloud is suspicious? Why? Cloud is still alive and could be village. His defense of inactive eliminators is suspicious? Why? He was right and that's also something that's been brought up many times in past games. There's virtually no point in focusing on inactive eliminators while there are active eliminators alive because guess what? The inactives are only trying to kill you based on their given alignment. The active eliminators are actually trying to kill you. They are sending in action orders and probably posting in the thread, trying to sway villagers to their agenda. Also, most GMs call the game if it gets down to just active villagers and inactive eliminators. So....focusing on inactives is pointless and harmful to the village.

As for lynching based on roles....In the first anniversary game, there were many vote manips and smokers. In fact, there were five smokers in the game. The village had three of them.All three village smokers claimed to me and I thought it was highly unlikely that we had three smokers, so they were killed. One. By. One. Imagine my surprise when I learned that they were all good. Oops. Sorry, guys, for claiming to me in hopes that you could help the village and then I had you killed based on your role... >>

LG14 had five protection roles. Two very powerful protection roles and three mostly regular-ish protection roles. All five seemed village to me, but I thought there was no way for the village to have all five protection roles, especially once I learned that the uber powerful ones were most definitely village. All three of the lesser ones were lynched. All of them were village. The village had all five protection roles. The eliminators had none. Once again, oops.

Don't lynch based on role and your ideas about role distribution. It ends bad every time. Even if you end up being right, it's based on flawed logic and therefore is bad, because you'll now have evidence that lynching based on role works, so you'll do it more. You're not in the GMs head and you don't know what they did with the role distribution. You don't know how they tried to balance things. Best to not even start down that rabbit-hole, if you can help it.

That all said, I'm pretty sure Drake's an even worse lynch than Ecth. However, I could actually throw a vote on the Drake lynch, based solely on his anti-neutral comments.  

[Steeldancer he/him]

28 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Smoker is a classic elim role in a game with a cop role that finds alignment, since it provides cover. This game, however, does not have a cop that finds alignment. The Seekers in this game find role (assuming you used your role). This means that elims don't need alignment cover, and the smoker is only necessary for vote manipulation. But just because the village has all the vote manip doesn't mean the elims have all the smokers (minus Len). Maybe they have a couple, but they haven't claimed. Ecth isn't necessarily an elim Smoker, and lynching based purely on roles is usually a bad idea.

Most of your "suspicions" on Ecth aren't conclusive, since most of them are based on things that none of you (except the eliminators) know right now. His defense of Cloud is suspicious? Why? Cloud is still alive and could be village. His defense of inactive eliminators is suspicious? Why? He was right and that's also something that's been brought up many times in past games. There's virtually no point in focusing on inactive eliminators while there are active eliminators alive because guess what? The inactives are only trying to kill you based on their given alignment. The active eliminators are actually trying to kill you. They are sending in action orders and probably posting in the thread, trying to sway villagers to their agenda. Also, most GMs call the game if it gets down to just active villagers and inactive eliminators. So....focusing on inactives is pointless and harmful to the village.

As for lynching based on roles....In the first anniversary game, there were many vote manips and smokers. In fact, there were five smokers in the game. The village had three of them.All three village smokers claimed to me and I thought it was highly unlikely that we had three smokers, so they were killed. One. By. One. Imagine my surprise when I learned that they were all good. Oops. Sorry, guys, for claiming to me in hopes that you could help the village and then I had you killed based on your role... >>

LG14 had five protection roles. Two very powerful protection roles and three mostly regular-ish protection roles. All five seemed village to me, but I thought there was no way for the village to have all five protection roles, especially once I learned that the uber powerful ones were most definitely village. All three of the lesser ones were lynched. All of them were village. The village had all five protection roles. The eliminators had none. Once again, oops.

Don't lynch based on role and your ideas about role distribution. It ends bad every time. Even if you end up being right, it's based on flawed logic and therefore is bad, because you'll now have evidence that lynching based on role works, so you'll do it more. You're not in the GMs head and you don't know what they did with the role distribution. You don't know how they tried to balance things. Best to not even start down that rabbit-hole, if you can help it.

That all said, I'm pretty sure Drake's an even worse lynch than Ecth. However, I could actually throw a vote on the Drake lynch, based solely on his anti-neutral comments.  

Just trying to generate ideas over here. 

Is there any truly conclusive evidence we have? We have nothing. So yes, I'm working with evidence that is less than conclusive. If I had hard information, I would work with it. But I don't. I think Ecth will be a worthwhile lynch, not necessarily because of his role, but because it will give us information. At the very least, if he turns elim, it will hard clear Dalinar. It will give us hints at much more that is going on. And also ecth isn't truly inactive. He's active enough on the shard to have just sent in an action. 

If you have hard information to work with, that would be fantastic. But I don't think you do, so I will continue with following my gut and what the evidence (no matter how inconclusive) seems to suggest. 

[little wilson she/her]

I offered hard information (that wasn't an elim identity, since we didn't have that) last cycle but either all the villagers missed it or ignored it.

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 minute ago, little wilson said:

I offered hard information (that wasn't an elim identity, since we didn't have that) last cycle but either all the villagers missed it or ignored it.

You did? 

Um. I missed it. I'll go back through in a bit, once I finish trying to figure out LG36

[Dalinar Kholin]

I'm voting for Ecthellion. Fair point by Little Wilson on not having much evidence. I would like to add that he voted for Joe yesterday, with essentially no explanation if my memory serves. Most of my previous analysis was gut, also, Stick and Araris are on my suspicions list. It's almost more I know there are at least 3 elim's left, and I currently only have three people on my suspicions list. I think Ecthellion has the highest chance of being lynched out of the three, thus I think we should get him.

[Stick. she/her]

Ecth.

After reading through some things again, I'm willing to bet that if Ecth flips elim, his defense of Cloud was pocketing. Cloud did, as Flash said, vote Ecth yesterday (before switching it to Joe), and his tone seemed genuine, mostly. A lot of us seem willing to lynch Ecth, (I do not think elims would push for a villager-lynch this hard) including BR, Joe and many players last turn. And yeah, worst case scenario: ecth flips village, in which case we can pursue the next lynch with more information than what we have now.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

I offered hard information (that wasn't an elim identity, since we didn't have that) last cycle but either all the villagers missed it or ignored it.

I think i missed it...hold on...

Also, the inactivity is kinda annoying. How are we supposed to solve the game with like five people active? 

I will start tagging people if they don't make an appearance in the next 3 hours. :]

[cloudjumper he/him]

I think lynching Ecth is a good alternative to a no-lynch. Him being an Elim is more likely to me than the alternative, which is a no-lynch. I might be okay with a Drake lynch, but I'd rather lynch Ecth first.

Ecth(4): Flash, Stick, Dalinar, Cloud

Drake(1): Araris

[Steeldancer he/him]

Found it. @little wilson something Yitzi told you? Is that what you're talking about? 

[little wilson she/her]

Well, the neutrals, but yes.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I'll switch my vote from Drake to Ecthelion. If he flips village, then I'll be suspicious of Dalinar next. If he flips elim, then I want to lynch Stick for sure.

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 hours ago, little wilson said:

Well, the neutrals, but yes.

If you could tell us whatever you know it would be really nice of you 

[Seonid he/him]

Ecth. Sorry - potty-training a toddler right now, and it's taking waay too much out of me. Well, that plus GMing my MR game.