Paranoid King he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 2 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said: Well, @Seonid, I'm really sorry. The eliminators did blackmail me last night, which means I need to work with them or, they'll attack me, which means El, Joe, Crimsn and I all lose. Araris. Dangit. I talked about this just last cycle, didn't I? That's what we get for having open PMs. Regardless, Flash is clearly evil. After all, why would a villager wait to vote on their largest suspicion until after a neutral revealed that they had been bribed by the elims to vote on them themselves? Unless you're just that sure of your superior numbers. Anyways, Vote tally: Flash (3): Araris, Stick, PK Araris (3): Wilson, Orlok, Flash, Elbereth, Cloud Stick (0): Orlok Drake (0): Elbereth Wilson (0): Orlok Orlok (1): Elbereth Crimsn (1): Orlok ... What? @OrlokTsubodai, are you counting on them being so distracted by your vote changes that they won't make good on their blackmail?
Dalinar Kholin Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 I'm pretty sure Araris and Stick are evil... Ignore the neutral trolling. Araris
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 @Haelbarde Question: Player A is a Rioter and uses their power, so their own vote is canceled. Player B riots Player A. What happens? Also, if a rioter targets a Smoker, does their own vote still get canceled?
Paranoid King he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said: @Haelbarde Question: Player A is a Rioter and uses their power, so their own vote is canceled. Player B riots Player A. What happens? Also, if a rioter targets a Smoker, does their own vote still get canceled? What? Rioters get their votes cancelled? I never knew that.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 Nevermind. I guess I was thinking of AG rules.
little wilson she/her Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said: I'm pretty sure Araris and Stick are evil... Ignore the neutral trolling. Araris Not all the neutrals are blatantly trolling, thank you very much.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 1 hour ago, The Flash said: Ok. Now I'm even more confused. But I've been considering a different view of events. Orlok, were you actually blackmailed by the elims? Because if not, my whole thing goes out the window. Absolutely! I even received a special PM entitled "Blackmail"!
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said: Absolutely! I even received a special PM entitled "Blackmail"! Ok then. Assuming this isn't a troll, I would like to propose another scenario- that both Araris and I are village. In such a scenario, Dalinar would actually be my top suspect. If this is a troll, then Araris is my top suspicion. Also seriously getting evil vibes on PK. Like villain level evil. Your logic for voting on me makes no sense at all. in fact, I think PK has no alibi whatsoever, and is almost certainly an elim. At least Araris has some things speaking for him. I would encourage any villagers to change their vote to PK. Also that thing about the neutral votes sounds oddly threatening PK. I'm voting PK Edited July 22, 2017 by The Flash 1
Paranoid King he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 1 hour ago, The Flash said: Ok then. Assuming this isn't a troll, I would like to propose another scenario- that both Araris and I are village. In such a scenario, Dalinar would actually be my top suspect. If this is a troll, then Araris is my top suspicion. Also seriously getting evil vibes on PK. Like villain level evil. Your logic for voting on me makes no sense at all. in fact, I think PK has no alibi whatsoever, and is almost certainly an elim. At least Araris has some things speaking for him. I would encourage any villagers to change their vote to PK. Also that thing about the neutral votes sounds oddly threatening PK. I'm voting PK Aha! That's exactly the sort of thing an evil player would say to throw suspicion off of themselves. And I don't get why I'm suspicious. Wilson had her favor called in and voted on Araris. You immediately voted on Araris as well. 5 hours ago, The Flash said: Ok. They specifically wanted you to vote for Araris? (Thank you for helping the village. I appreciate it). Well then that might be the information we need to make a better lynch. Because if so, then araris. This after saying that we had to get this vote right. 10 hours ago, The Flash said: So. Who are we going to lynch. We must get this right. 6 hours ago, The Flash said: This is our last big opportunity. If we don't succeed this lynch, we will lose. Your reason for voting on Araris makes no sense. You're voting for information, but we don't need information, we need eliminators. You're inconsistent, and as of just now, you're trying to redirect suspicion to a player you haven't had any suspicion of previously. That reeks pretty heavily of eliminator to me.
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Paranoid King said: Aha! That's exactly the sort of thing an evil player would say to throw suspicion off of themselves. And I don't get why I'm suspicious. Wilson had her favor called in and voted on Araris. You immediately voted on Araris as well. This after saying that we had to get this vote right. Your reason for voting on Araris makes no sense. You're voting for information, but we don't need information, we need eliminators. You're inconsistent, and as of just now, you're trying to redirect suspicion to a player you haven't had any suspicion of previously. That reeks pretty heavily of eliminator to me. I'm so sick of lies and stuff. You're an elim. There are 4 elims left, and there are 5 people that would be cleared before you. You are evil. Araris, if you are village, I'm asking you to listen to me and help me with this lynch. And PK, I've been explaining my thought process this entire time. It is in an effort to get a correct lynch that I'm changing my vote. Araris is risky. You are not. And if I'm wrong, I lose the game. im going to hill cumorah pageant now. I may or may not be able to get on tomorrow. Please lynch smartly. Edited July 22, 2017 by The Flash
cloudjumper he/him Posted July 22, 2017 Posted July 22, 2017 3 hours ago, _Stick_ said: I seem to have missed this? Quote All that aside, I think the game is already over. I'm in contact with 2 smokers, which is enough to prevent your vote manips for an elim team of 4. Also, I'm a Rioter. That means that in the small chance that some of the inactive villagers do come on and vote, 5 votes loses to 4 and a riot. Worst case is a tie I think, and then somebody would have to die during the night. Emphasis added Using his manip with the Elims seems a bit suspicious to me. Might have read something wrong but it looks like that to me right now. 1
Shqueeves Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, Paranoid King said: And I don't get why I'm suspicious. Wilson had her favor called in and voted on Araris. You immediately voted on Araris as well. Flash voted on Araris before Wilson called in her favor. He then removed his vote from Araris. PK 1
Paranoid King he/him Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Shqueeves said: Flash voted on Araris before Wilson called in her favor. He then removed his vote from Araris. PK What?? 8 hours ago, The Flash said: Araris 6 hours ago, The Flash said: Because if so, then araris. Oh. These colors look exactly the same to me. Arghh, I missed the first one and assumed the second one was a vote. Sorry about that, Flash.
Shqueeves Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 I'm leaving in a little bit and I won't be back until the 5th of August
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 Well well. This is a little crazy. No, I take it back. I just read the whole thing. It isn't a little crazy, it's a lot crazy. It's also amazing. Even if we are probably about to lose. So, we would be at LyLo, except for some complications. First off, there are both vote manipulators and smokers, which confuse things a bit. There aren't enough smokers to totally block vote manipulators, however, if the vote manipulators are sufficiently lucky. Second off, the eliminators are calling in a vote from Wilson. Well, fair play. Making a deal and sticking to it. Remind me why we didn't strike a deal with Wilson when we agreed to lynch the convict? We totally could have done that. Anyways. If we want to go full-on tinfoil, the eliminators could have asked Wilson to do this to deflect the lynch away from Araris. It would be an utterly effective way to stop us from lynching an eliminator, and if Wilson were online near the end, she could even switch her vote away from Araris and onto the villager of choice. On the other hand, there are several reasons that this is unlikely. The first is Occam's razor. And the second is that I'm not sure the eliminators would be quite that devious in the way they call in their favor. There's a pretty good chance that they can control the lynch through raw force, so I doubt they would feel the pressure that is necessary to come up with a plan like this. Plus, my gut says Wilson is telling the truth about this. She's following the terms of the deal she struck to the letter. And, honestly, if this is all some elaborate gambit, the eliminators flat-out deserve to win. So... Lets go ahead and assume that Araris is indeed a villager. Even though I do have some doubts, because Araris said some weird things about "4 people controlling the vote." So. We have 13 players. Flash, Cloud, Shqueeves, PK, Arin, Araris, Wilson, me, Crimsn, Stick, Dalinar, STINK, Orlok, and Elbereth Of those, we can immediately knock it down to 9, removing the neutrals from the pool of suspects. Flash, Cloud, Shqueeves, PK, Arin, Araris, me, Crimsn, Stick, Dalinar I'm also going to take out Araris for the aforementioned reasoning, putting us at 8. And I'm going to remove myself, obviously, putting us at 7. Flash, Cloud, Shqueeves, PK, Arin, Crimsn, Stick, Dalinar At this point I will note that if we guessed randomly we'd have an over 50% chance of guessing correctly. However, because LyLo requires us to guess correctly many times in a row without any margin for error, random guessing is not a sound strategy to win the game. Lets take a look at Paranoid King though. He originally voted on a suspicion about Flash, but the grounds for his suspicion seemed to be an honest mistake and he immediately retracted his vote when he realized it. I consider that to indicate village on PK. I know it's a painfully small amount of information to clear somebody off of, but we're desperate, so I'll roll with it. That takes PK off my list, dropping us down to 6 people. Flash, Cloud, Shqueeves, Arin, Crimsn, Stick, Dalinar ...and I think that's enough for now. My gut read on Flash is all over the board. I don't really have much data on Cloud, Shqueeves or Arin. I'm leaning eliminator on Crimsn, Stick, and Dalinar. And I think I choose Dalinar. He provided a credible reason to vote on Araris, which would make a lot of sense for an eliminator trying to capitalize on the advantage that their favor with Wilson bought. If necessary, I will change my vote to prevent the eliminators from taking control of the lynch. But I think Dalinar is a good bet.
Stick. she/her Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 (Crimsn is neutral :P) I agree with your reasoning and vote on dalinar, but I'd sooner get rid of the more active elims, if they are any, and flash is my best bet right now.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 23, 2017 Posted July 23, 2017 (edited) 31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said: (Crimsn is neutral :P) Crimsn is neutral? Lol. Well I think that means I have 10 people on my list of 9 non-neutral living players. 31 minutes ago, _Stick_ said: I agree with your reasoning and vote on dalinar, but I'd sooner get rid of the more active elims, if they are any, and flash is my best bet right now. Fair enough. However, I'm just a lot less sure about Flash being an eliminator, and I'd rather have the certainty of lynching Dalinar. If I need to, I will switch my vote to Flash so that the village can't simply be outnumbered. But, to speak frankly, I don't trust either the Flash or the Araris lynch. Both of them just feel off. Even if, statistically, it is probable that one of those two is an eliminator. @Araris Valerian please explain what you were trying to say earlier about rioting and smoking. Anyway, thing is... If the eliminators are calling in a vote from Wilson right now... That puts us at 5 votes versus 5 votes. Now, if Araris is actually good (and I'm going to take a gamble and just work off the assumption that he is), that puts us in an interesting place. It means that there will be a village rioter and a village soother, giving the village a potential advantage. But the eliminators are basically certain to have at least a single smoker, which has the potential of blocking the vote manipulations. And in this case, a tie lynch is bad news for the village. So in that case, if we can all agree on somebody who is actually evil, we can pull through, at least for today. I still think there's something really wrong with this whole Araris versus Flash thing. There's too many things here that just don't make any sense. I'd feel a lot better picking a third option, and then piling everything we have on that. This would let us dodge most gambits, and even if that third option was chosen randomly (which it would not be) we'd still have pretty good odds to hit an eliminator at this point. But if nobody is going to change there vote, I will switch over to Flash. Even if I think that this is sub-optimal. Edited July 23, 2017 by Drake Marshall
Steeldancer he/him Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 Vote PK! He's probably elim! I have no time to use evidence but seriously
xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 4 hours ago, Drake Marshall said: I'm leaning eliminator on Crimsn, Stick, and Dalinar. Lol, yea. Like Stick said, I am neutral. I claimed Convict's Ward a cycle or so ago.
Paranoid King he/him Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 By my count, Flash has 2 votes, I have 2 votes, and Araris has 3 votes. I seriously doubt that Araris is an elim, so I'm voting on Flash. He's a better shot than Araris, even if my previous reasons were wrong.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 (edited) [EPONINE (tending to Marius)] Every day you speak with lighter heart You speak with lighter heart Her spell is over [MARIUS] Every day, I wonder every day How could I see Cosette and yet not Eponine? [EPONINE] Don't think about it, Marius With all the years ahead of us I will never go away And we will be together every day Every day We'll remember this night And the vow that we make: A heart full of love My days full of you The words are old But always true Oh, Locke, for shame You did not even know her name [MARIUS] Dear Mademoiselle I was lost in her spell [EPONINE] A heart full of love No fear, no regret I saw you once and then I knew [JAVERT] She was never mine to keep She is youthful She is free [MARIUS] My Eponine! [EPONINE] I saw you pining and I knew. [JAVERT] Love is the garden of the young. [MARIUS] Waiting for you At your feet [EPONINE] At your call [JAVERT] Let it be Let it be. A heart full of love This I give you On this day [MARIUS & EPONINE] And it wasn't a dream Now we must kill Altea! More seriously, Crimsn, I think I can get behind a vote on The Flash, at least for now. (Credit to El for the parody, and apologies to Crimsn for implying that you're a witch. El can get jealous...) Edited July 24, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai 2
xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 lol, that parody is amazing, I love it. xD No need to apologize~ I shall also place one final vote on The Flash.
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 The neutrals are participating in this lynch. A lot. That's probably a bad sign. We've probably lost. It's a very safe bet for the neutrals to all get together and help lynch a villager, but it's a very risky move for them to actually lynch one of the eliminators and risk facing retribution. But there's not much to be done now. The cycle is 3 hours from ending, and I said I would change my vote. Dalinar. The Flash. But let it be noted that I have a bad feeling about this.
little wilson she/her Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 39 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said: But let it be noted that I have a bad feeling about this. Noted. And before I go to bed...Araris. The Flash. No, this was not an elim-requested double bluff. This was simply me trying to spice up the end-game. I think it went fairly well. Certainly not boring like the previous couple cycles. 2
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted July 24, 2017 Posted July 24, 2017 15 minutes ago, little wilson said: Noted. And before I go to bed...Araris. The Flash. No, this was not an elim-requested double bluff. This was simply me trying to spice up the end-game. I think it went fairly well. Certainly not boring like the previous couple cycles. Yes, well, it was certainly less boring. So good job. In any case, this explains quite a lot. I knew I was missing something about this vote. In any case, I do believe that means game over then. Ehh, why not. The Flash. Araris.
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