Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Stick. she/her]

Like one forth of the turn's left why isn't anyone voting. 

It's probably that I expressed suspicion of aman on N1...lol

@cloudjumper srsly? I havent made any pms with you since you said this:

 

hm @cloudjumper what made you change your opinion on Aster?

Edited July 11, 2017 by _Stick_

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, my 3 top suspects right now in terms of suspicious behavior are Flash, Stick, and BR. Flash and BR both had things that stuck out to me during the first couple days, and Stick with the lynch on Straw. However, there are a lot of other people that I don't really have a read on at all. I know that several of you guys are reading me the same way, but I do think I've given straightforward opinions about most of the events in the game. @Drake Marshall, @cloudjumper, and @asterion137, you are guys I haven't really picked up anything on. Please vote on who you would be willing to murder this cycle. After you three, I have a little bit of an elim read on Striker.

[Paranoid King he/him]

That's quite a lot to go through, Flash. Hope you get it all put together.

I guess I'll toss a vote on Seonid. We don't seem to have a lot of activity right now, and I'd rather lynch a less active than one of the people trying to analyze.

Also, @Shqueeves, nice to see you back. If you don't want to read the whole thread, I'd recommend you just check out Flash's analysis page.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I'm finding aster's complete reversal really weird honestly.

9 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

They were probably misinformed in PMs or something if they killed Lopen because they thought he was the ringleader, I don't see any other way they'd come to that conclusion. It could just be a guess, though. Or maybe they killed him for other reasons entirely.

Yeah, that sounds plausible. But why would that be thought to be likely?

Unless there's something I've missed, it seems strange that Brightness made such an oddly specific conjecture. A little bit like the eliminators actually did think that Lopen was the ringleader, except the reasons they might have thought that aren't public.

I'll withhold my FoS about that until BR answers the question. But that's why I'm asking the question.

39 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, my 3 top suspects right now in terms of suspicious behavior are Flash, Stick, and BR. Flash and BR both had things that stuck out to me during the first couple days, and Stick with the lynch on Straw. However, there are a lot of other people that I don't really have a read on at all. I know that several of you guys are reading me the same way, but I do think I've given straightforward opinions about most of the events in the game. @Drake Marshall, @cloudjumper, and @asterion137, you are guys I haven't really picked up anything on. Please vote on who you would be willing to murder this cycle. After you three, I have a little bit of an elim read on Striker.

Hmmm so your top three suspects are Flash, Stick, and BR... And yet you vote on someone different, who you only have "a little bit of an elim read on"?

I don't really follow.

Also, I don't suppose that you are one of our as-of-yet-unrevealed neutral roles?

But your request for me to vote has been noted. I still need to catch up, but from what I've seen, the situational evidence against Stick makes me lean eliminator. I'm sorry if you are village, but I'm pretty sure one of the people in that C1 switch up pretty much had to be an eliminator.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Drake Marshall heh it was actually Aman who first said he thought the elims killed Lopen cuz they probably thought he was the ringleader  (I was partly quoting him) But yeah Aman was the scavenger and had listed Lopen among his potential villagers a couple times and I think the elims might've known that Aman was the scavenger, but I'm not sure. The neutrals all knew he was *shrugs. I thought Lopen might've been ringleader at first just because I was kinda in the trust circle and knew Aman's role very early in game, and he kinda trusted Lopen.

Anyways....my main hesitation for voting Aster is cuz he stood up for Rand cycle one by pointing out how Elim!Rand wouldn't try to alienate the neutrals against the village if he would get lynched and flip elim. *shrugs that just seemed like a villager thing to do, but ever since I've gotten elim vibes *sigh

@Araris Valerian I'm very interested in why you thought I looked suspicious? I've done a TON of analysis this game and also tried to lynch Yitzi day 1...There was a good plan set up between me and Aman to save Rand by possibly ensuring the Yitzi lynch, but Jon seemed suspicious too so that's where I ended up voting to save Rand.

EDIT: Oh right I meant to vote Asterion

 

Edited July 11, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

9 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Drake Marshall heh it was actually Aman who first said he thought the elims killed Lopen cuz they probably thought he was the ringleader  (I was partly quoting him) But yeah Aman was the scavenger and had listed Lopen among his potential villagers a couple times and I think the elims might've known that Aman was the scavenger, but I'm not sure. The neutrals all knew he was *shrugs. I thought Lopen might've been ringleader at first just because I was kinda in the trust circle and knew Aman's role very early in game, and he kinda trusted Lopen.

Yeah but why would the elims know what you knew?

I get that supposing the elims thought Lopen was the ringleader is totally valid, because if you thought he was, maybe other people did.

But I still have my eye on you

Edited July 11, 2017 by Drake Marshall

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Those are my top three suspects, but they are also significantly contributing to the conversation. There is a lot of "negative space" to hunt around in right now, and I think that's the best place to be looking for elims. If nobody is trying to solve the game, then there is no incentive for elims to put themselves out there.

Brightness, I meant more that you made a few posts that gave me elim reads when I did analysis of the first couple of days. Basically, disregarding anything you have done that aligns with village, you have done things that gave me an elim read. The same with Flash. Stick is different since most of my read on him comes from the lynch against Straw. Of the active, voting players, you three are the ones I have had the most to look at to find suspicious behavior.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Sorry, been at court for 14 hours of the last two days and am exhausted. I'll post more analysis tonight.

Current thoughts, suspicious of Striker, suspicious of Aralis, suspicious of Asterion. Those are my top 3 thoughts at the moment.

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Those are my top three suspects, but they are also significantly contributing to the conversation. There is a lot of "negative space" to hunt around in right now, and I think that's the best place to be looking for elims. If nobody is trying to solve the game, then there is no incentive for elims to put themselves out there.

Brightness, I meant more that you made a few posts that gave me elim reads when I did analysis of the first couple of days. Basically, disregarding anything you have done that aligns with village, you have done things that gave me an elim read. The same with Flash. Stick is different since most of my read on him comes from the lynch against Straw. Of the active, voting players, you three are the ones I have had the most to look at to find suspicious behavior.

And yet I'm almost completely sure that Brightness, Stick and I are all village. (Of course I'm sure that I'm village lol). Heres who I think we should go after today: Asterion or Striker. Many people have had elim gut reads on them being village. However Asterion has the Yitzi vote going for them. So I am going to vote striker . I am now going to go look through my analysis page to see if anything about Yitzis analysis points towards Striker or Asterion being elim...

Ok i found some interesting things. Note the statement at the end of this analysis:

Quote

Striker: Suggested that the elims might want to take out the neutrals.  This seems a bit strange (elims don't need to take out neutrals to win), so I'd guess that either he's an elim who didn't suggest his idea to the other elims, or all the elims are inexperienced, or he's not an elim.  I'm getting a bit of a village read from his first post of day 2, but I never trust reads that don't have clear reasoning behind them.

And then Yitzi says these about Cloudjumper and Asterion:

Quote

Asterion: Called out the eavesdropping potential of the group PMs; if STINK is an elim, this is a point for village!Asterion.  Also pointed out the flaw in the "Rand is an elim trying to turn the neutrals" theory.  Overall, he looks village-ish to me.

 Cloudjumper: Made a few disorganized comments.  Suggested that if Rand is an elim, he doubts that Aman is...if they both are, Cloud probably is as well.  (I would say that so is Crimsn, but Crimsn claimed neutral and apparently told Joe her role; it's possible that she told Joe that she's really an elim, but that seems implausible.  It's worth revisiting if all neutrals are accounted for as not being Crimsn as well as Rand and Aman being elims, but that's as far as I'd go.  Crimsn also was a lot less emphatic about the "if Rand is, Aman isn't" statement than Cloud was.)

I find this exactly what I was looking for in terms of distancing. Not drawing attention, but also not entirely ignoring so as to draw suspicions. 

Edited July 11, 2017 by The Flash
Clarifying and analysis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Dalinar Kholin who is Aralis fellow? My name is Aimes, the only guy I know named Aralis died in Tyrian Falls the last couple of years.

[Steeldancer he/him]

@BrightnessRadiant we don't have to change the meta yet, but I think we should go after striker before we go after asterion. If it comes down to it, maybe you could do it? We could combine later on when interference becomes more likely. 

[asterion137 he/him]

29 minutes ago, The Flash said:

distancing.

 

If Yitzi, me and cloud are all elims, do you think he wants to read everyone elim except me and cloud? That's the opposite of distancing.

[Stick. she/her]

Vote tally:

(2)Striker: Araris, Flash

(1)Seonid: PK

(1)Stick: Drake

(2)Aster: BR, stick

Aster (for previously stated reasons) I would've voted earlier, but a power cut happened (again).

I have a village read on Flash this turn, despite how some things from earlier cycles about him bother me, a village read on Drake for his post last turn (I've said everything I can to try to give you evidence to clear your suspicions, Drake. But I guess you won't budge :[ ) and a very very village read on BR from the start.

Of the lynch candidates right now, I have been suspicious of Striker a bit,  here's my analysis regarding him. Though I think we should lynch Aster? I dunno

ninjad by Flash

Flash, why do you think Striker is a better lynch target?

Edit: ninjad by Aster. Hm, I don't have much of an opinion on cloud atm, Have to look at a few things 

Edited July 11, 2017 by _Stick_

[asterion137 he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Vote tally:

(2)Striker: Araris, Flash

(1)Seonid: PK

(1)Stick: Drake

(1)Aster: BR

Aster (for previously stated reasons) I would've voted earlier, but a power cut happened (again).

I have a village read on Flash this turn, despite how some things from earlier cycles about him bother me, a village read on Drake for his post last turn (I've said everything I can to try to give you evidence to clear your suspicions, Drake. But I guess you won't budge :[ ) and a very very village read on BR from the start.

Of the lynch candidates right now, I have been suspicious of Striker a bit,  here's my analysis regarding him. Though I think we should lynch Aster? I dunno

ninjad by Flash

Flash, why do you think Striker is a better lynch target?

 

I didn't vote brightness lol

misread

Edited July 11, 2017 by asterion137
oops

[Stick. she/her]

15 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

I didn't vote brightness lol

misread

:-P

edit: 

Oh, and I wanted to talk about Seonid in my last post but forgot. The only odd behaviour I remember from him is how he voted on Aman with Yitzi, but I doubt an elim would try that. Tentative village read.

Edited July 11, 2017 by _Stick_

[Steeldancer he/him]

37 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Vote tally:

(2)Striker: Araris, Flash

(1)Seonid: PK

(1)Stick: Drake

(2)Aster: BR, stick

Aster (for previously stated reasons) I would've voted earlier, but a power cut happened (again).

I have a village read on Flash this turn, despite how some things from earlier cycles about him bother me, a village read on Drake for his post last turn (I've said everything I can to try to give you evidence to clear your suspicions, Drake. But I guess you won't budge :[ ) and a very very village read on BR from the start.

Of the lynch candidates right now, I have been suspicious of Striker a bit,  here's my analysis regarding him. Though I think we should lynch Aster? I dunno

ninjad by Flash

Flash, why do you think Striker is a better lynch target?

Edit: ninjad by Aster. Hm, I don't have much of an opinion on cloud atm, Have to look at a few things 

I said that the vote on Yitzi reflected more of a villager nature on Asterion in my post above. Striker has no soft clear like that, so I think Striker is a better target. 

 

40 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

 

If Yitzi, me and cloud are all elims, do you think he wants to read everyone elim except me and cloud? That's the opposite of distancing.

No that's not what i meant by distancing. Specifically what I was looking for was not a hard village read, or a hard elim read, but a "eh" read. You, cloud, and Striker fit into that category. 

[asterion137 he/him]

2 minutes ago, The Flash said:

No that's not what i meant by distancing. Specifically what I was looking for was not a hard village read, or a hard elim read, but a "eh" read. You, cloud, and Striker fit into that category. 

pretty much every read yitzi did falls into that category though

[Steeldancer he/him]

15 minutes ago, asterion137 said:

pretty much every read yitzi did falls into that category though

Yeah youre right i just finished rereading that... blegh. Well nice job being ENTIRELY unhelpful Yitzi2. Still I would lynch 1. Striker, 2. Asterion, 3. Cloudjumper. Another reason for being suspicious of Striker is that he never finished analyzing the rest of the players. 

(Ooh I've never made a vote count before!!!)

Striker (2) Araris, Flash 

Seonid (1) PK

Stick (1) Drake

Asterion (2) Brightness, Stick

Edited July 11, 2017 by The Flash

[Stick. she/her]

30 minutes ago, The Flash said:

I said that the vote on Yitzi reflected more of a villager nature on Asterion in my post above. Striker has no soft clear like that, so I think Striker is a better target. 

Aster's was the 9th vote on Yitzi, though XD But since I'm going to sleep now and won't be on till after rollover and don't want to leave this as a tie, Aster Striker

[Steeldancer he/him]

Ok that's what it was! At the point that Yitzi voted on that day, Rand and Asterion had an equal number of votes. And yet he voted on Asterion. This is why I think it is less likely to be a bus (because the vote was still tied) and more possible that Asterion is genuinely a villager. Obviously it doesn't entirely clear aster, but its more than what Striker has. 

 Jay had been sitting by the wall in his spot again. He had been keeping track of what people said about each other, and had written it down to see if it revealed anything about them. It was time to show it to the younger revolutionaries. 

He stood up, and a gust of wind tried to blow away his metal hat. Thankfully he caught it, and ran as fast as he could to the arguing youngsters.

"Lookie here! I've written down everything that people have said about each other. What do you make of it?"

The revolutionaries looked surprised that he was actually being helpful, but allowed him into their circle of discussion!

Jay held his hat on his head while he exulted inside: perhaps he had made a difference in this revolution! But only time would tell...

@cloudjumper @StrikerEZ why you lurking? 

Edited July 11, 2017 by The Flash

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Ugh, I was typing something, but then it all deleted. I'll edit it my thoughts and stuff in this post unless someone posts after me.

[asterion137 he/him]

43 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Aster's was the 9th vote on Yitzi, though

I was 4th to vote on yitzi. 5 ppl voted on yitzi right after me. Page 39

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I have to go eat real quick. My thoughts are coming, just give me a sec.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I'm getting really tired of losing my post. 

I had it typed up better before, but I basically said that I'm sorry for not posting much and never finishing my analysis. I've just been lazy. Unless someone else is put up for lynch and gets more votes than me, I'll probably be lynched today. I'm not gonna worry about super analyzing everyone, but I'll go over my thoughts a little on everyone.

Flash always felt like he was giving very elim vibes to me from the beginning. It felt like he was hiding behind his IRL problems as an excuse to not have any real good analysis or suspicions. But, how hard he's been working on his analysis stuff this cycle and past couple cycles is making me lean more village on him now. I don't think an elim would go through all that work to analyze everyone, especially since it would bring so much attention to them from everyone else. I definitely understand why he's voting on me, so I'm not really feeling like he's an elim anymore.

I have no idea what alignment cloudjumper could be. I know they've posted a little bit, but nothing ever really stood out to me. 

Same thing for Shqueeves.

asterion is an interesting case. I'm still not sure what to think of them, but I do agree that they've been acting weird ever since this game started. If I'm lynched today, I'll turn out village, and I'd recommend going after aster next, because I don't think any of the people voting on me are too suspicious.

I know PK hasn't posted much, though I'm not sure what to think of his vote on Seonid. Feeling neutral about him.

I know I'm village, but I guess you guys won't really be able to truly know that until I'm lynched. lol

I've said this before, but Brightness is just too nice for me to ever not see her as village. I feel she's village, though she definitely could be elim-even if I don't think it's likely. Does that make sense?

I know Arinian isn't inactive, but I hoesntlu forgot they were in this game lol. Sorry, don't really have a read on them.

For Araris, I'm not sure. He's been going after me for awhile now, and as a villager, that makes me wanna lean elim on him, but 1) he's not the only person going after me and 2) I have been acting pretty elim-like this game. Of the three who have voted on me so far, I'm the most suspicious of him, but I do understand where his suspicion is coming from. 

I don't really have much to say about Ecthelion, honestly. (Wow, what a big surprise /sarcasm)

I dunno what to say about Seonid. He's been lurking a bit, but he hasn't seemed suspicious from his few posts I remember.

Drake just feels off to me...but I dunno, that's only really based off of his posts this cycle where he kept mixing things up. I understand he had to look back through the game to find things, but it feels really forced. I'd keep an eye on him once I'm lynched.

Crimsn is a new player (at least on these forums), but she has played mafia before (albeit, probably not with Sanderson roles). I felt like she was forcing the whole "inexperienced" thing too much, but she's seemed pretty village-y to me.

Stick has done both really village things and really elim things, with some NAI stuff mixed in ther, in my opinion. I honestly don't know what to think of her, but I'm leaning village, plus she's been doing tons of analysis, so I'd rather not get her lynched, because our some of best analysis people are all dead.

I haven't really been paying attention to Dalinar, sorry.

I don't think Elbereth has posted that much, so I don't really have a read.

I left out all the dead people and neutrals. Also, I'm sure some of that isn't that helpful, but I didn't really wanna waste a whole lot of time when I'll probably end up dead. If I don't get lynched, I'll go back and really do some analysis.

EDIT: Oh, sorry for the double post. I thought I was editing this in.

Edited July 11, 2017 by StrikerEZ

[Seonid he/him]

Yeah - I've been mostly checked out of this game - job interview, getting my own game ready, and so on. Sorry - ya'll deserved more attention from me. I'll try to do some analysis.

Also - just noting a fact. If I were evil, I wouldn't have killed Aman. He trusted me, he did good analysis, and since he trusted me I would have used that as leverage to try and direct his suspicions. No idea if I could have done it successfully, but I would have wanted to try it.

There's a great deal of stuff to sift through, and not a lot of substance from the past few days. I'll try and get my analysis hat out in the next day or two. Or overnight. For now, I'm inclined to lynch either asterion or Araris. Both are pure gut, though. I'll likely change my vote after I get a chance to get analysis done. Somebody's got to do the hard work of digging up old posts, and I might as well do it.