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QF70: Observation Report 2 - Siblicide


|TJ|

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OBSERVATION REPORT 02

 

XX-XX-XXXX

SUBJECT: SIBLICIDE

THOUGH THE BIRDS HAVE SEEMINGLY DISAPPEARED INTO THE CITY, WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OBSERVE SOME OF THEIR ACTIVITIES. IT IS VERY CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THEY EXHIBIT THE BEHAVIOUR OF SIBLICIDE. WITH THE RESOURCES BEING SCARCE, THE BIRDS ARE FIGHTING AMONG THEIR OWN NEST-MATES, IN SOME EXTREME CASES, TO THE POINT OF DEATH. NATURE'S HARSH REALITIES SEEM TO BE DOING THE JOB FOR US.

*

Amanuensis was eliminated and killed! He was a member of the Octet!

Vote Count:

Quote

Amanuensis(4): Kasimir, Sart, Stick, Faerie Braids
Drake(4): RoyalBeeMage, Amanuensis, Drake, neil the beguiled
Stick(1): TheRavenHasLanded
Faerie Braids(1): Aeoryi

Cycle 2 has begun and will end on February 12th, 01:00 AM GMT. Please try to bold your votes, and give retractions in green. @JNV and @Alvron, please note that this game has a vote inactivity filter. Please do vote to avoid being replaced. 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @Aeoryi
  2. @RoyalBeeMage
  3. @Kasimir - Detective Kowalski
  4. @TheRavenHasLanded - Riven
  5. Amanuensis - Maikul "Truthwatcher" McGee Octet
  6. @Sart - Sam
  7. @Stick. - Stick
  8. @Faerie Braids Secretary-Constable Vivienne Bell
  9. @DrakeMarshall - Marshal Drake
  10. @neil the beguiled
  11. @JNV
  12. @Alvron - Ylath
Edited by |TJ|
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Constable-General's secutary roy yawned as he found a new report that had been filed just that morning. strangely it was also related to the last one he had spent a long time looking through. only this time it was leading away from observation report one and lead him to a third document. Observation Report 2 - Siblicide. will the paper trail ever end.

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8 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

@Alvron, please note that this game has a vote inactivity filter. Please do vote to avoid being replaced. 

Don't you worry TJ.  My no vote was done for a reason.  The reason now being moot thanks to all the end of cycle fun we just had.  But hey, got a tie out of it and didn't have to do anything.


Assuming Aman was telling the truth, (Which I never fully believe) then we can conclude the following:
Drake and Stick are evil
The Informant is now dead (Aman) so they only need to kill the Contact to win.
The Insider knows who the Contact is.

If the Insider reveals themselves and outs who the Contact is, then the Village has no way of surviving.

Since the elims don't know who the Insider is, I feel that for the best chance of the Village to survive a little longer we all need to claim to be the Insider and claim someone else as the Contact.  This will obscure the real Insider should they try and claim.

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1 minute ago, Sart said:

I believe, as they say, that the game is afoot.

Neil the Beguiled I saw you lurking during that crazy rollover.

aye so it is

Neil the Beguiled sounds good to me let's do it

2 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Don't you worry TJ.  My no vote was done for a reason.  The reason now being moot thanks to all the end of cycle fun we just had.  But hey, got a tie out of it and didn't have to do anything.


Assuming Aman was telling the truth, (Which I never fully believe) then we can conclude the following:
Drake and Stick are evil
The Informant is now dead (Aman) so they only need to kill the Contact to win.
The Insider knows who the Contact is.

If the Insider reveals themselves and outs who the Contact is, then the Village has no way of surviving.

Since the elims don't know who the Insider is, I feel that for the best chance of the Village to survive a little longer we all need to claim to be the Insider and claim someone else as the Contact.  This will obscure the real Insider should they try and claim.

I'm the Insider and I would like to reveal that Alvron is the Contact

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Drake and Aman clearly coordinated the hammer last cycle and outed while doing it BTW they are confirmed elims :P 

 

That might be a decent plan Alv, but it’s gonna be hard to exe anybody when they are likely somebody else’s claimed Contact

 

Just to reiterate, the Contact still needs to hide. I’ve sent them the info that Drake is an elim (duh) but they need to be careful about not being too obvious with it. The NKs from now on will be coin flips between whatever Drake and I choose lol. 

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Yeah tbh it’s very hard being a double-double-agent lol I wasn’t sure when to drop the lies or when to drop the act in the doc it was very awkward. I’m not sure if all of the reads i posted yesterday even real but I think most of them were. 
 

The doc is less awkward now. 

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7 minutes ago, Stick. said:

That might be a decent plan Alv, but it’s gonna be hard to exe anybody when they are likely somebody else’s claimed Contact

Not really.  For instance we can disregard Drake claiming me as the Contact and anyone you claim as well.  Others will claim randomly and even then there will be some that no one claims.
No matter what, people will vote and someone will be killed.  All I'm trying to do is keep the Insider from having an easy time.  Now if they claim they run the risk of outing themselves for no gain.

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alright well it looks like it's on me to see the next few steps in this crazy jig

so here they are

 

let's assume I can aim the NK at the Contact and then I win the coin toss and the Contact dies

then what?

 

sure at that point if I got exed I'd likely win, because the Insider can then go ahead and kill Stick with the NK

but people aren't gonna exe me, and the NK is going to always hit outside the doc because ties always favor votes outside the doc

so you'll just keep hitting people outside the doc with both the NK and the exe until the Insider is dead

and then vote me up and the village wins

and there's... not really much I can do about that!

 

so yeah, if we'd won that coin toss and I got exed yesterday, or if we'd actually gotten Stick voted up Aman I'm still judging you so hard for v!reading me most of yesterday smhhhhhhhhhhhhhh (and yes, aman, if you are judging me from beyond the grave for snap voting without seeing the bit about votes being immutable, you absolutely have a right to, but that doesn't stop me from judging you for this we can judge each other ok :ph34r:), in either of those cases we'd very probably be winning

but in this case, not so much

I suppose you guys could still lose if you keep missing the Insider and it comes down to a 2v1 with me, Stick, and the Insider

you now have 8 chances to swing and miss

try not to mess it up :P

Edited by DrakeMarshall
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5 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

alright well it looks like it's on me to see the next few steps in this crazy jig

so here they are

 

let's assume I can aim the NK at the Contact and then I win the coin toss and the Contact dies

then what?

 

sure at that point if I got exed I'd likely win, because the Insider can then go ahead and kill Stick with the NK

but people aren't gonna exe me, and the NK is going to always hit outside the doc because ties always favor votes outside the doc

so you'll just keep hitting people outside the doc with both the NK and the exe until the Insider is dead

and then vote me up and the village wins

and there's... not really much I can do about that!

 

so yeah, if we'd won that coin toss and I got exed yesterday, or if we'd actually gotten Stick voted up Aman I'm still judging you so hard for v!reading me most of yesterday smhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, in either of those cases we'd very probably be winning

but in this case, not so much

I suppose you guys could still lose if you keep missing the Insider and it comes down to a 2v1 with me, Stick, and the Insider

you now have 8 chances to swing and miss

try not to mess it up :P

Yep. That's the math as I see it. Well, time for a bloodbath.

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19 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

alright well it looks like it's on me to see the next few steps in this crazy jig

so here they are

 

let's assume I can aim the NK at the Contact and then I win the coin toss and the Contact dies

then what?

 

sure at that point if I got exed I'd likely win, because the Insider can then go ahead and kill Stick with the NK

but people aren't gonna exe me, and the NK is going to always hit outside the doc because ties always favor votes outside the doc

so you'll just keep hitting people outside the doc with both the NK and the exe until the Insider is dead

and then vote me up and the village wins

and there's... not really much I can do about that!

 

so yeah, if we'd won that coin toss and I got exed yesterday, or if we'd actually gotten Stick voted up Aman I'm still judging you so hard for v!reading me most of yesterday smhhhhhhhhhhhhhh (and yes, aman, if you are judging me from beyond the grave for snap voting without seeing the bit about votes being immutable, you absolutely have a right to, but that doesn't stop me from judging you for this we can judge each other ok :ph34r:), in either of those cases we'd very probably be winning

but in this case, not so much

I suppose you guys could still lose if you keep missing the Insider and it comes down to a 2v1 with me, Stick, and the Insider

you now have 8 chances to swing and miss

try not to mess it up :P

Except we do not know if we exe the Insider.  The only way for us to know would be to have the NK target the Insider and they not show up in the write up.
So long as the kill is targeting outside the Doc there's a chance for the Insider to be revealed.

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8 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Except we do not know if we exe the Insider.  The only way for us to know would be to have the NK target the Insider and they not show up in the write up.
So long as the kill is targeting outside the Doc there's a chance for the Insider to be revealed.

Right. If Aman was the Informant, we are in a very awkward position. However, given his extremely odd vote maneuver at the end of the cycle, I doubt that is the case. If Stick is the Informant, as I suspect, our optimal strategy is to kill everyone besides Drake and Stick.

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Ok sorry I missed the first cycle I had an event like all day and I thought Id have time in the evening to get on and stuff but nope going out for dinner for the new year you know how it is anyway by the looks of things everythings on fire and the Octets destroyed themselves from the inside and now were in a situation where whoever moves first dies cause if we kill the last real evil the Insider can use the kill to kill the Contact and also we never actually find out when we vote the Insider and we risk hitting the Contact every time we try is that everything or did I miss more pieces of this wargame

Anyway placeholder vote for Aeoryi they dont feel right but like they never feel right Ill look over things more in the morning see you later bye bye

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