Kasimir Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: ehhh my general opinion of her player archetype is that. thought tbh i’ve not actually seen that happen so maybe not. i don’t rlly think that aeo wanting to hang back is exceedingly ai (especially after seeing her hyperpost in a recent MU wolf game of hers) so i don’t generally agree with your conclusions. lol i guess about elim doc that’s not something i’ve been thinking of..? I don’t think the inner concerns of the elim doc should be too huge of a concern right now because like. idk i think that sort of informant machination becomes a feature later in the game rather than sooner. mafia will eat each other sooner or later so why not sit back and watch? I regard Raven as a more natural LHF than her. Aeo fights MLs tooth and nail (I don't follow MU), so is not a natural Elim ML target. The game has just started and we're on p2. I don't see why that's not a valid place or presumption to do a starting vote. The Elims win by killing the Informant and the Contact. They can win by going for brute outnumbering, but gambling they'll be spicy enough to kill among themselves to try to out the Informant feels like wishing the Elims would misplay to me. I do think compromised Elim docs, by design, are riskier places and they're placing votes for the kill, meaning it's more a nested Village (cf. that infamous Village-within-Village game) mech in effect than one. I think it's reasonable to look for where the cracks can show. Edited to add: Btw just let me know if I'm too aggressive. Not in the mental state to assess tone rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 (edited) neil / aeo / kas / raven - all villagers hopefully Edit: Stick (derp cleared) Edited February 10 by Stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 To perhaps sharpen the point- IMO this is the comparator. We (Korathi, thread-level Village) expected the Jeskeri to send the exe among themselves, but of course they didn't. To some extent, I've tiptoed around trying to guess how the Elims will behave this game because it combines enough elements to be unpredictable that I think it's just more fruitful to wait and see. I think, however, at base level, some expectations are fairly reasonable: upper limit of 4 Elims, more likely 3 at 12 players, 4 with one Insider is risky if they detect the Insider early and potentially allow for some form of synch. Possible TJ doesn't expect vote synch since the Informant can't convey the Insider's name (yes, this is one scenario we wargamed.) A. The Elims can win by outnumbering and then controlling vote dominance. However, this is actually a pretty indirect way to win, since they'd be brute-forcing outside the doc and turning inside the doc. B. They really just need the Contact and Informant dead and they immediately win regardless of how many Villagers are still alive. This means they'd be certifiably insane not to feel each other out inside the doc, even if they spend time putting up a united front outside the doc. Because they are guaranteed one hit within the 3-4 players in the doc, which is actually really good odds, only counterbalanced by the fact the Informant flips red so they don't know when the Informant is dead. (Hence it being strategically important for the Informant and Contact to fool them for as long as possible.) C. They are voting to place the kill and votes cannot be altered once cast. This also means they have pretty high incentive to actually discuss in the doc - that's why I say it's a Village-within-a-Village format of sorts. Under all those circumstances, I expect most Elims and especially the Informant to be playing two 'Village' games at once, which should tell on itself in terms of thread behaviour and potentially link analysis (QF46 considerations applied.) I don't see the point in ignoring that the Elims have to be conditioned by their wincon and actually consider dismissing it to be mildly questionable, if not suspicious. 1 hour ago, Stick. said: neil / aeo / kas / raven - all villagers hopefully Curious about your Neil read. I don't fully share it and am considering if he's overcredencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 I can’t really explain it I just think he is village :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Stick. said: I can’t really explain it I just think he is village :0 Any possibility of further articulation to help me out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyalBeeMage Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, Stick. said: neil / aeo / kas / raven - all villagers hopefully Edit: Stick (derp cleared) hey you forgot me. you dont think i am a mafia do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasimir Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Alright. Probably last for the day from me as there's more Dragon Year crap and a memorial. -Not fond of Aeo's entrance into the game. Feel Aeo is a good place for pressure. -Neil getting off aggressively is good and I like the attitude but I also feel Neil is simultaneously overcredencing and overdismissive, and dislike insistence on playing this like a regular game - it isn't one, and the wincons reflect this. Am concerned this is an Elim perspective. Potentially willing to sheep depending on grounds of Stick's read - bracket for now. (There's a side-note about potentially ascribing Neil a better read on the basis of Alv confusion, similar for Aeo, but I don't feel this is convincing to me due to lack of overall presence and the fact Neil has derped as an Elim before, cf. MR67.) -Do not like Aman's disappearance. Aware Aman has work but believe we both spent a decent chunk of time lurking and feel Aman has easier entry-points into the thread given low thread volume and little substantial discussion. In light of this, concerned about: A. lack of WiM, and B. Aman bandwidth being drawn into doc. -Dislike Raven's entry point, and am concerned about Stick as Stick has often stated she despises purity reads (more later on.) Agree this hasn't backfired so far but Raven's opening felt very much like it was trying to overchannel normalcy, and I typically am mildly concerned about those things - similar to Jain, less so as I don't strongly feel Raven was overplaying this. -Dislike Royal's sole concern with perception. Curious about a Royal/Stick connection due to slight 'notice me noona' vibes from Royal's most recent post. -Noted Drake's lack of presence. Similar concerns to Aman, probably watered down a bit as Drake is less plagued by the WiM issue than Aman as a tell. -No strong feel on Stick. Dislike derpclearing Stick on principle for stated reasons + Stick is absolutely capable of doing that. Slightly like Stick's defense of Neil as it doesn't feel E/E, but that's more a point in Neil's favour than Stick's. For now, provisional V lean on the basis of liking Stick's dgaf about perception but IMO if Stick keeps it up into C3, she deserves pressure - she knows better than this. Purity read issue a question that haunts me. -Someone will be able to read Alv. It won't be me. If he's Village, we struck the jackpot, if he isn't, good luck to us I guess. -Faerie can fit the same profile IMO due to loitering and solo vote on Alv. Lack of Presence: -Sart -JNV I'm more willing to excuse JNV's absence compared to Sart as I believe we both celebrate the Dragon Year, so they might be just as overwhelmed. Sart I think is readable but I can't form a read in absentia. Probably washes out to something like: Stick (???? - very asterisked.) Neil (? - if sheep; see if Stick can give a more robust basis for comfort) - Aeo??? Alv - Raven??? Faerie, Drake Royal Aman Now cracks a noble heart. Good-night, sweet prince And flights of angels sing thee to thy rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Any possibility of further articulation to help me out here? Umm well ok I’ll try this is still a “just trust me bro” but I believe that e!Neil wouldn’t hand aeo an easy v!read like that over something so niche regardless of aro’s alignment. I think aeo is town for Reasons 1 hour ago, RoyalBeeMage said: hey you forgot me. you dont think i am a mafia do you? You tell me!! Why should I think you’re a villager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRavenHasLanded Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 I was just doing it as a joke mostly. Stick because them as an elim is terrifying to me and i dont wanna risk that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aeoryi Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 7 hours ago, neil the beguiled said: i’m a tonereader and your tone is whack. you’re stilted and seem to lack the sort of natural confidence i’ve seen in my prior games with you. :P. and i’m not a fan of the overblown defensiveness either /shrug edit: also sussing aeo is so easy to do as mafia because she practically wraps herself in free miselim wrapping paper and sits underneath the tree :/. why do you think aeo is sussy wussy this game? edit2: why do i sound like didistetter You don't really. Didistetter likes to ping every other person to ask them questions Also where is the VC button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|TJ| Posted February 10 Author Report Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, Aeoryi said: Also where is the VC button VC button is typing @|TJ| Amanuensis (2): Kasimir, neil the beguiled Stick (2): TheRavenHasLanded, Drake Faerie Braids (2): Aeoryi, RoyalBeeMage Drake (1): Stick Alvron (1): Faerie Braids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 50 minutes ago, TheRavenHasLanded said: I was just doing it as a joke mostly. Stick because them as an elim is terrifying to me and i dont wanna risk that. Wow Erm what do ties do again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil the beguiled Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 8 hours ago, Stick. said: Aeo and Neil are villagers ahahah I might believe this too. :hmm: TBD. @Stick. quastion why ignore me when i ask for your explinations but answer to Kas? also after grilling me for an aeo read i'd like more than "reasons" from you :P. 8 hours ago, Kasimir said: I regard Raven as a more natural LHF than her. Aeo fights MLs tooth and nail (I don't follow MU), so is not a natural Elim ML target. The game has just started and we're on p2. I don't see why that's not a valid place or presumption to do a starting vote. The Elims win by killing the Informant and the Contact. They can win by going for brute outnumbering, but gambling they'll be spicy enough to kill among themselves to try to out the Informant feels like wishing the Elims would misplay to me. I do think compromised Elim docs, by design, are riskier places and they're placing votes for the kill, meaning it's more a nested Village (cf. that infamous Village-within-Village game) mech in effect than one. I think it's reasonable to look for where the cracks can show. Edited to add: Btw just let me know if I'm too aggressive. Not in the mental state to assess tone rn. mmm you have a good point. After MR67 i regarded aeo as someone who would likely be easy to miselim but it seems thats not actually happened to her in a game ive played or watched so maybe a perception thing. i wont disagree that raven's a more natural one, but that doesnt mean i cant ascribe her to that position too? idk idt it rlly matters. potato potato okay maybe i see your point but im not in the elim doc and i fail to see how you think i can make reads off of it. my job is to kill mafia, and i dont have experience with these sorts of nested games, and nor will i do my homework about them. we ball. (also you're fine i just dont really settle well with more emotional driven things >.>) 8 hours ago, Stick. said: neil / aeo / kas / raven - all villagers hopefully Edit: Stick (derp cleared) stop playing popcorn. is your raven read sheepable :curtain:? 6 hours ago, Kasimir said: To perhaps sharpen the point- IMO this is the comparator. We (Korathi, thread-level Village) expected the Jeskeri to send the exe among themselves, but of course they didn't. To some extent, I've tiptoed around trying to guess how the Elims will behave this game because it combines enough elements to be unpredictable that I think it's just more fruitful to wait and see. I think, however, at base level, some expectations are fairly reasonable: upper limit of 4 Elims, more likely 3 at 12 players, 4 with one Insider is risky if they detect the Insider early and potentially allow for some form of synch. Possible TJ doesn't expect vote synch since the Informant can't convey the Insider's name (yes, this is one scenario we wargamed.) A. The Elims can win by outnumbering and then controlling vote dominance. However, this is actually a pretty indirect way to win, since they'd be brute-forcing outside the doc and turning inside the doc. B. They really just need the Contact and Informant dead and they immediately win regardless of how many Villagers are still alive. This means they'd be certifiably insane not to feel each other out inside the doc, even if they spend time putting up a united front outside the doc. Because they are guaranteed one hit within the 3-4 players in the doc, which is actually really good odds, only counterbalanced by the fact the Informant flips red so they don't know when the Informant is dead. (Hence it being strategically important for the Informant and Contact to fool them for as long as possible.) C. They are voting to place the kill and votes cannot be altered once cast. This also means they have pretty high incentive to actually discuss in the doc - that's why I say it's a Village-within-a-Village format of sorts. Under all those circumstances, I expect most Elims and especially the Informant to be playing two 'Village' games at once, which should tell on itself in terms of thread behaviour and potentially link analysis (QF46 considerations applied.) I don't see the point in ignoring that the Elims have to be conditioned by their wincon and actually consider dismissing it to be mildly questionable, if not suspicious. Curious about your Neil read. I don't fully share it and am considering if he's overcredencing. mmmm i cant disagree with your experience or how the actual gameplay works but also like. lol idk about that. i agree that theres a game within a game but i dont see how i can play directly to it as an uninformed villager? (LAMIST) i dunno. i have a few expectationa about the game but i dont rlly feel like itd be a good idea to voice them bc wifom whjatever. also what does overcredencing mean? 4 hours ago, Kasimir said: Alright. Probably last for the day from me as there's more Dragon Year crap and a memorial. -Not fond of Aeo's entrance into the game. Feel Aeo is a good place for pressure. -Neil getting off aggressively is good and I like the attitude but I also feel Neil is simultaneously overcredencing and overdismissive, and dislike insistence on playing this like a regular game - it isn't one, and the wincons reflect this. Am concerned this is an Elim perspective. Potentially willing to sheep depending on grounds of Stick's read - bracket for now. (There's a side-note about potentially ascribing Neil a better read on the basis of Alv confusion, similar for Aeo, but I don't feel this is convincing to me due to lack of overall presence and the fact Neil has derped as an Elim before, cf. MR67.) -Do not like Aman's disappearance. Aware Aman has work but believe we both spent a decent chunk of time lurking and feel Aman has easier entry-points into the thread given low thread volume and little substantial discussion. In light of this, concerned about: A. lack of WiM, and B. Aman bandwidth being drawn into doc. -Dislike Raven's entry point, and am concerned about Stick as Stick has often stated she despises purity reads (more later on.) Agree this hasn't backfired so far but Raven's opening felt very much like it was trying to overchannel normalcy, and I typically am mildly concerned about those things - similar to Jain, less so as I don't strongly feel Raven was overplaying this. -Dislike Royal's sole concern with perception. Curious about a Royal/Stick connection due to slight 'notice me noona' vibes from Royal's most recent post. -Noted Drake's lack of presence. Similar concerns to Aman, probably watered down a bit as Drake is less plagued by the WiM issue than Aman as a tell. -No strong feel on Stick. Dislike derpclearing Stick on principle for stated reasons + Stick is absolutely capable of doing that. Slightly like Stick's defense of Neil as it doesn't feel E/E, but that's more a point in Neil's favour than Stick's. For now, provisional V lean on the basis of liking Stick's dgaf about perception but IMO if Stick keeps it up into C3, she deserves pressure - she knows better than this. Purity read issue a question that haunts me. -Someone will be able to read Alv. It won't be me. If he's Village, we struck the jackpot, if he isn't, good luck to us I guess. -Faerie can fit the same profile IMO due to loitering and solo vote on Alv. Lack of Presence: -Sart -JNV I'm more willing to excuse JNV's absence compared to Sart as I believe we both celebrate the Dragon Year, so they might be just as overwhelmed. Sart I think is readable but I can't form a read in absentia. Probably washes out to something like: Stick (???? - very asterisked.) Neil (? - if sheep; see if Stick can give a more robust basis for comfort) - Aeo??? Alv - Raven??? Faerie, Drake Royal Aman Now cracks a noble heart. Good-night, sweet prince And flights of angels sing thee to thy rest :P. hate to see an itboss stay winning. its mildly hilarious to have both voiced concerns on stick and I while also putting us at top LOL. why does me not knowing alv give me village cred though? note abt stick , i dont rlly think e!stick would want to give an easy tr to t!raven like that though. especially given perception as a miselim. id be more concerned about stick if raven flipped e instead tbh (bc something something beagle), but aorn id lean that more villagery to stick than elimmy. 1 hour ago, Aeoryi said: You don't really. Didistetter likes to ping every other person to ask them questions Also where is the VC button huff! i meant the tone of what i said reminded me of her. and i do my fair share of pinging. why is that what you comment on from that message as opposed to anything else? @Aeoryi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alvron Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 11 hours ago, Stick. said: Hi Alv :0 Heya Stick. Nice to see you again. 10 hours ago, Kasimir said: -Good to see Sarge again @Alvron Good to be seen Comrade Kas. 3 hours ago, Kasimir said: -Someone will be able to read Alv. It won't be me. If he's Village, we struck the jackpot, if he isn't, good luck to us I guess. Okay then, looks like Kas is evil. My condolences, I know you dislike being elim. Vote pattern analysis is going to be interesting this game. If you are one of the three special roles, you have so many options to choose from to aid or hinder the other side but just as many tripwires waiting. Does the Informant 'bus' an elim? Does the Insider only vote for Villagers and claim it's simply bad luck? Does the Contact vote early in a cycle on those they are told are evil or do they wait and hope someone else does it first? Do the elims kill one of their own thinking they've IDed the mole? Or do they try and get them voted out? So many options and so many I can't talk about due to them helping the elims more than the village. Why must my elim!brain be more active then my village!brain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil the beguiled Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 are we sure that the evil team is the minority why is everybody suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alvron Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: why does me not knowing alv give me village cred though? Pure speculation and part ego on my part but I'm fairly sure that if you were evil, your more experienced evil fellows would've said something about me in Doc and you would've asked in there for more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: 9 hours ago, Stick. said: Aeo and Neil are villagers ahahah I might believe this too. :hmm: TBD. @Stick. quastion why ignore me when i ask for your explinations but answer to Kas? also after grilling me for an aeo read i'd like more than "reasons" from you :P. I think she tries more as elim, to put it simply. Plus I buy your little mindmeld moment. Looks v/v 17 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: stop playing popcorn. is your raven read sheepable :curtain:? I will never stop playing popcorn And no it is most certainly not LOL 19 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: note abt stick , i dont rlly think e!stick would want to give an easy tr to t!raven like that though. especially given perception as a miselim. id be more concerned about stick if raven flipped e instead tbh (bc something something beagle), but aorn id lean that more villagery to stick than elimmy. 1 hour ago, Aeoryi said: Wow you are so villagery (ignore that broken quote box idk how to make it go away) 14 minutes ago, Alvron said: Pure speculation and part ego on my part but I'm fairly sure that if you were evil, your more experienced evil fellows would've said something about me in Doc and you would've asked in there for more information. There’s an elim who is locked out of the elim doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aeoryi Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Stick. said: Wow Erm what do ties do again RNG? 26 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: huff! i meant the tone of what i said reminded me of her. and i do my fair share of pinging. why is that what you comment on from that message as opposed to anything else? @Aeoryi I had to correct you 9 hours ago, neil the beguiled said: i’m a tonereader and your tone is whack. you’re stilted and seem to lack the sort of natural confidence i’ve seen in my prior games with you. :P. and i’m not a fan of the overblown defensiveness either /shrug edit: also sussing aeo is so easy to do as mafia because she practically wraps herself in free miselim wrapping paper and sits underneath the tree :/. why do you think aeo is sussy wussy this game? I have a great idea How about no one sus me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aeoryi Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 9 hours ago, Kasimir said: 9 hours ago, neil the beguiled said: I regard Raven as a more natural LHF than her. Aeo fights MLs tooth and nail (I don't follow MU), so is not a natural Elim ML target. Uh summary of my activities on MU: Spoiler Randed Elim for my first game (12 villagers and 3 mafia) and bussed my two partners on d1 and d3, and then proceeded to make it to f3 and lost Randed Elim for my second game (blackout this time) and bussed both teammates by D4, and then made it to f4 with some cursed TS role and lost. I also had a total of 1009 posts at the end of the game as well Was a village 1-shot TS in my third game and... Claimed it in thread. And there was a third faction which won if all of them got voted out. And they had a role-block ability. And the third faction won. On D3. 4 hours ago, Stick. said: Umm well ok I’ll try this is still a “just trust me bro” but I believe that e!Neil wouldn’t hand aeo an easy v!read like that over something so niche regardless of aro’s alignment. I think aeo is town for Reasons You tell me!! Why should I think you’re a villager? You see, I haven't traumatized Neil yet 5 hours ago, Kasimir said: Not fond of Aeo's entrance into the game. Feel Aeo is a good place for pressure. I said a total of like, 12 words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil the beguiled Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 52 minutes ago, Stick. said: I think she tries more as elim, to put it simply. Plus I buy your little mindmeld moment. Looks v/v eh but the channukah game kinda shows that shes also capable of fallout as well (ig thats a late stage problem but w/e). i dont rlly think activity or lack of it is entirely indicative either way. 55 minutes ago, Stick. said: (ignore that broken quote box idk how to make it go away) stick.... hey stick how do you feel about heart emojis..... 56 minutes ago, Aeoryi said: I had to correct you er, restate: why did you respond specifically to me making an offhand joke about a player that isnt even in the game rather than content i said about the actual game at hand? 40 minutes ago, Aeoryi said: You see, I haven't traumatized Neil yet eh i misread you in the blackout game but i was also speccing and didnt pay attention so meh. idk do u rlly wanna traumatise me? bc i wont forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Just now, neil the beguiled said: stick.... hey stick how do you feel about heart emojis..... war flashbacks... also yeah noted on the channukah game point but i agree that it's a late game problem/has got more to do with stamina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil the beguiled Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Stick. said: war flashbacks... also yeah noted on the channukah game point but i agree that it's a late game problem/has got more to do with stamina hmph. i still have my eyes on u why do you think kas is villa btw? and what was with trying to see if id follow u there votewise? idk whether i think you not giving really concrete reasons is wolfy or towny but also ive seen this fail a lot so. hmph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faerie Braids Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 Playing this like a standard game seems as though it would favour the Octet, so Kasimir and Alvron's analysis of the format are appreciated (Sorry for poking you after a long time away, Alvron. Doing so felt a bit like poking Ruin, an ancient being of unimaginable power, and the chaos that lives inside me was curious). Something in the Stick./neil/Aeoryi interaction gives me weird vibes, but I can't pinpoint what it is, yet. I've seen Amanuensis lurking a couple of times, and can agree with Kasimir's reason for suspicion. Also, even without vote manipulation, leaving a three-way tie until end of day seems like a poor choice for the village (and I won't deny feeling a sense of self-preservation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil the beguiled Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 hm. science. faerie braids hm. maybe stick is towb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stick. Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said: hmph. i still have my eyes on u why do you think kas is villa btw? and what was with trying to see if id follow u there votewise? idk whether i think you not giving really concrete reasons is wolfy or towny but also ive seen this fail a lot so. hmph. yeah you were sussing him so i wanted to see if youd follow me on the wagon once i initiated it but you backed off lol which is villagery given i think kas is a villager. and yeah idk i cant put my finger on what exactly makes kas village it's just an overall vibe lol. believe it or not ive only played with e!kas once (that i recall) and i was able to find him quickly is nobody up for a drake exe or wat btw. he's posted a lot but it's all been fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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