Long Game 83: The Survivor

[Ashbringer]

37 minutes ago, Archer said:

I have thoughts about the lack of kill, but I can't talk about them. For reasons. 

@Ashbringer I added exactly six items to the Supply. I'm just gonna rinse and repeat since another fabulousrial was added. 

Mat had a good observation about elims probably not missing the D1 pinata, so he has earned one sheep. Steel

... oh. You had that. Right.

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Steeldancer

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Me and the boys double posting

[DrakeMarshall]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Me and the boys double posting

Spoiler

 

[Mat]

35 minutes ago, Tani said:

I failed to grab electrum so -1 electrum +1 electrum iirc

I think that means someone else got it and Archer added a new one

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Previous Night's Stockpile:

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• 1 Iron Vial
• 1 Tin Vial
• 3 Brass Vials
• 2 Copper Vials
• 1 Bronze Vial
• 1 Gold Vial
• 1 Electrum Vial
• 1 Bendalloy Vial
• 2 Aluminum Vials
• 1 Duralumin Vial
• 3 Chromium Vials
• 2 Nicrosil Vials
• 1 Hrovell Potion
• 1 Painrial

Current Stockpile:

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• 1 Tin Vial
• 2 Brass Vials
• 2 Copper Vials
• 1 Electrum Vial
• 1 Cadmium Vial
• 1 Bendalloy Vial
• 2 Aluminum Vials
• 3 Chromium Vials
• 1 Nicrosil Vial
• 1 Attractor Fabrial

So:

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• -1 Iron
• -1 Brass
• -1 Bronze
• -1 Gold
• +1 Cadmium
• -1 Duralumin
• -1 Nicrosil
• -1 Hrovell Potion
• -1 Painrial
• +1 Attractor Fabrial

That last one is interesting. Although maybe I need to reread rules.

Almost suggests to me last round had two, if we assume each Stockpile pull generates a bunch of vials and one item.

[JNV]

Hi! My mind is blank on thoughts and someone already did net change on items so I think I'll just do a quick summary of previous cycles to myself with miscellaneous bits cut

• I've mentioned this a lot but the rapid fire Hazekiller claim from Thaidakar reads good to me
• I am hardcore trusting Kas's Thief security officer claim (I think I've also mentioned this before)
• The Unknown Aon seems a bit hmm because phrasing but that might be an exaggeration on my part
• (There really wasn't much that caught my eye day 1. sad)

Okay now next bit

• (Okay, either people are talking without saying much or my brain is melting. Probably the second one honestly; I'm really  tired. I'll be back tomorrow ish same time as always. Sadly, I won't be available tomorrow morning. Bye! I'll do more thoughts when my eyes aren't slipping shut without me noticing! Good night!)

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, JNV said:

• The Unknown Aon seems a bit hmm because phrasing but that might be an exaggeration on my part

We tried that already, didn't work.

 

(TUA's dead and village )

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, JNV said:

• The Unknown Aon seems a bit hmm because phrasing but that might be an exaggeration on my part

He's dead, vod!  

[StrikerEZ]

Oh I knew I forgot to tell y’all something. Just so you know, I have an event happening the night of this turn’s rollover. I won’t know exactly when it’ll be over, so I’m going to have this turn end at the same time as normal. I might get lucky and get home before it’s over. If not, that’s okay. Experience could post the next turn or it could be delayed. N2 will have to be 48 hours anyway, so I doubt anyone will complain if it’s cut a bit shorter by a later start.

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

No one was killed or attacked!

Spoiler

@StrikerEZ: Can I please confirm, Mr GM sir, that there are no circumstances in this game where there will be no alignment flips, and that Team Evil has a NK in this game? Asking for a friend, thanks.

[Steeldancer]

Is this what I have become? A meme vote? Voted on for no other reason than "haha funny elims hoard steel, Steel must have steel"

I was expecting some pressure on different people, but not I! Granted I haven't done much besides complain and RP, so I shouldn't complain too much. More. 

For the record, I have no steel. I neither spawned with any, nor have acquired any through dubious nor lawful means. And honestly, I don't really want any anyway. I'm more interested in staying alive long enough to finish the first RP that's actually caught my interest in at least 3.5 years. Leets actually seems like a compelling character, and I'd rather not have to be resurrected to finish my RP again. 

Not that Endowment could even save me this time anyway. 

So, please don't kill me please, I'm sure there are better options to exe anyway. Who they are? Yeah, don't ask me. I have no idea. My thoughts on people are mainly "I'm interested in what Kasimir is doing, and I want Fifth to stay alive." That's about it. 

Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go... Sleep? Watch YouTube while pretending to sleep? Fall asleep watching YouTube? Something along those lines. 

[Kasimir]

Sigh.

I tried guys.

I really tried :|

This sitting back and absolute chilling and utter pacifism just isn't really my style.

I need to redefine what chilling means to me I guess because I still want a chill, quiet, RPful game.

Tani.

[Ashbringer]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Sigh.

I tried guys.

I really tried :|

This sitting back and absolute chilling and utter pacifism just isn't really my style.

I need to redefine what chilling means to me I guess because I still want a chill, quiet, RPful game.

Tani.

... if you need pointers, I'm sure I can find someone to get you some

Yes I'm going to go to sleep now smh

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... if you need pointers, I'm sure I can find someone to get you some

Yes I'm going to go to sleep now smh

Maybe I'm just in withdrawal from MR56, have you considered that >>

Edited to add: Thanks, but I'm good Ash. I've been having repeated crises in my GM PM and my current conclusion is I'm going to do whatever I want and whatever makes me happy. If that's promoting thread discussion so be it. If it's analysis so be it. I'm going to do exactly as much as I want to and not a jot more because it doesn't matter  

Security officer dgaf is real  

Edited February 19, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Maybe I'm just in withdrawal from MR56, have you considered that >>

Edited to add: Thanks, but I'm good Ash. I've been having repeated crises in my GM PM and my current conclusion is I'm going to do whatever I want and whatever makes me happy. If that's promoting thread discussion so be it. If it's analysis so be it. I'm going to do exactly as much as I want to and not a jot more because it doesn't matter  

Security officer dgaf is real  

See? You’re learning already 

okay sleep now aaaaah

[Kasimir]

1. Thread discussion is too anaemic. It's possible someone roleblocked the Elim kill - if so, they should come forward. Obligatory @StrikerEZ / @Experience to ask/confirm if roleblocked kills appear in the write-up.

If Team Evil is going for a mass extinction event arson strategy, then having a well-discussed lynch becomes of paramount importance to the Village, because we cannot afford to be even more informationally impoverished than we currently are. We won't be getting flips or things to analyse from NKs until they pull the trigger down the road, which can be a very serious problem for us. This means we need: actual alternative candidate trains, in order to be able to get a better feel of where players' priorities are. I've always said that a silvertongued Elim can turn black into white and white into black, but what they cannot do is to conceal what their actions say about their priorities. Voting is one concrete way to tease out where players' priorities really are, and for this, we need alternative trains because these create situations where players actually have to make concrete choices.

Note that if Team Evil really is going for a mass extinction event strategy, then the effectiveness of Bronze and Tin scans reduces quite a bit because we won't see the kills coming until the Big One hits. I've discussed this with a few players and the general stance is that this isn't the most orthodox kill doctrine, but we can't see a downside for them to do this. If they get their hands on more Nicrosil or Duralumin, we could be in bigger trouble because this could increase their kill potential. (ht @Ashbringer who highlighted this D1, but I want to reiterate this as a very real threat.)

2. For the people PMing me to ask about my Tani vote, my question to you: why not Tani? Do you trust Tani? If so, why? If not, do you have an alternative candidate you want to propose?

3. I'm not actually opposed to Steel today though I like his RP. I think there are good reasons to place pressure on Steel, but I also think these reasons have generally gone unmentioned, which is not good for the state of Village lynch discussion.

tldr; c'mon people discuss how sad is it that your security officer actually got aggravated enough to tell you this???

[Stick.]

Mat from last turn:

Quote

I want to go back and relook at it all... if Stick is e I think the Tani train (there was a Tani train, right? :P) was more in response to Stick than the TUA one was.

At one point Tani had two votes on her (Bort and TJ), but that exe dissolved quickly when the TUO train came up (TJ moved to TUO and Bort unvoted before the TUO train even came into existence). Bip only came with her Tani vote much later (it was 2/3 between Me/TUO) and the train didn't catch on. Therefore Bip is village. 

Karn from last turn:

Quote

Are you claiming you got an Anti-Investiture knife from voting out TUA? Or a non specified item of some sort?

Um. Maybe?  Like I said, it's open to interpretation.

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, without much info, I think the best place to start is with the votes and items from D1. I think for most players they are more likely to have a vote at the end of D1 if they are elim. I also think that elims are more likely than villagers to successfully grab something.

• Quote

   

  • Ashbringer grabbed a Cadmium Vial
  • Matrim's Dice grabbed a Tin Vial
  • Steeldancer grabbed a Bendalloy Vial
  • Archer grabbed an Attractor Fabrial
  • Kasimir grabbed a Pewter Vial
  • Orlok Tsubodai grabbed a Painrial
  • Thaidakar the Ghostblood grabbed a Shade Gun
  • Karnatheon grabbed an Aluminum Vial
  • _Stick_ grabbed a Tin Vial
  • Bort grabbed a Copper Vial
  • Fifth Scholar grabbed a Zinc Vial

   

  Bolded players voted. For now my vote is on Stick (Fifth is in a similar category), since I think D1 elims like to hide in trains. Nothing great, but Kas is right that we need to step up our game if there aren’t going to be any flips for a while.

[Kasimir]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

and the train didn't catch on.

Counterpoint would be that a stacked E train catching on would be very sus and extremely risky so the point would be to try to attract V buy-in - proposing a Tani train in an E!Stick scenario would basically be implying E!Stick, E!Fifth, and E!Bip but would almost certainly require checking your alignment first as it's the lynchpin of this possible world.

Do I have particularly high credences in V/E D1? Actually, no. But as Araris has pointed out before in AG8, it's not good to rule this entirely out of hand due to recent trends in Elim nonreactivity D1.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also think that elims are more likely than villagers to successfully grab something.

Are you assuming this because they are better able to coordinate grabs than Villagers are?

Edited February 19, 2022 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Are you assuming this because they are better able to coordinate grabs than Villagers are?

Yeah, pretty much. We had 11/23 successes with grabbing, with a base 25% elim rate I’d say it’s reasonable that 3-4 elims successfully grabbed items (maybe more even), which is slightly better odds than looking at everyone.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, pretty much. We had 11/23 successes with grabbing, with a base 25% elim rate I’d say it’s reasonable that 3-4 elims successfully grabbed items (maybe more even), which is slightly better odds than looking at everyone.

I feel like this assumes they stacked up on items they really wanted in order to increase their odds of getting the items they wanted, since it's RNGed among the pool of players that made the grab, but I'm not sure how that works out. Suppose there's just one Thief. (There's actually slight reason to think there's more than one Thief but I don't really want to freak y'all out right now so let's bracket that.) 

Gives us a player pool of 23, out of which we postulate 4-5 Elims (assume this is where your mention of base 25% Elim rate comes in.) Elims have two strategies, which are non-mutually exclusive, and which they can commit to to varying extents:

A. Stack up on an item to increase their chances of getting it - in a crude example, if all five go for pewter, and three Villagers do, then overall, it's more likely for an Elim to get pewter.

B. Separate to get different items by deconflicting - this could result in more items overall (and for 3-4 Elims to have successfully grabbed items, they must have not gone on the same item) but reduces the chances of success.

A and B therefore slightly conflict.

There's actually a third escape hatch, i,e, C: they stack up on an item with multiple instances, in which case it can be simultaneously true that they increase their chances, and also more Elims get items. But in a C-world, this brings us back to:

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

• Ashbringer grabbed a Cadmium Vial
• Matrim's Dice grabbed a Tin Vial
• Steeldancer grabbed a Bendalloy Vial
• Archer grabbed an Attractor Fabrial
• Kasimir grabbed a Pewter Vial
• Orlok Tsubodai grabbed a Painrial
• Thaidakar the Ghostblood grabbed a Shade Gun
• Karnatheon grabbed an Aluminum Vial
• _Stick_ grabbed a Tin Vial
• Bort grabbed a Copper Vial
• Fifth Scholar grabbed a Zinc Vial

Our only overlap.

We may not be in a C-world. But is this the logic behind your vote? Because I'm not really following how you're modelling Elim D1 item strategy right now.

[Stick.]

18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Stick (Fifth is in a similar category), since I think D1 elims like to hide in trains.

hide in trains? I literally started it.  And Fifth's vote made him stand out, if anything. Not really hidden at all.

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Counterpoint would be that a stacked E train catching on would be very sus and extremely risky so the point would be to try to attract V buy-in - proposing a Tani train in an E!Stick scenario would basically be implying E!Stick, E!Fifth, and E!Bip but would almost certainly require checking your alignment first as it's the lynchpin of this possible world

This is true, but I'm able to conclude v!Bip because I happen to have access to my GM PM  

[Araris Valerian]

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Gives us a player pool of 23, out of which we postulate 4-5 Elims

I'm actually assuming 5-6 elims. And I think strategy B actually increases the odds of an elim getting an item versus a villager: Say all thieves and villagers picked which item to go for entirely at random. This leads to a world where several items have nobody going for them, and where several have 2+ villagers on them. Now, each elim we add in (say they choose randomly but different from their teammates) lowers the odds of each villager getting an item, but fixes the odds of their teammates getting an item. In other words, for the elims, they have to compete with 16-18 players for items, while each non-elim has to compete against the full 22 other players. Of course I made a whole bunch of simplifying assumptions here, but the general trend should still hold.

[Steeldancer]

Interesting. It has come to my attention that I was targeted for some reason last night. 

I have no idea why you targeted me, but I'd be interested in knowing why you chose to do what you did. 

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Interesting. It has come to my attention that I was targeted for some reason last night. 

I have no idea why you targeted me, but I'd be interested in knowing why you chose to do what you did. 

You claiming to have burned gold? Because if you did, you should know who targeted you.

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Interesting. It has come to my attention that I was targeted for some reason last night. 

I have no idea why you targeted me, but I'd be interested in knowing why you chose to do what you did. 

ummm wait hold on get back in the PM lol