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2 minutes ago, Experience said:

Oh hush :P

I'm definitely from the future. Fear me. 

If you're from the future, sir, could I inspect your belongings?

I'm searching for contraband. I've heard someone has an illegal painrial stashed somewhere. Just proper precautions, you understand. The entire ship is in a state of heightened security with the recent saboteur activity.

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Just now, Kasimir said:

If you're from the future, sir, could I inspect your belongings?

I'm searching for contraband. I've heard someone has an illegal painrial stashed somewhere. Just proper precautions, you understand. The entire ship is in a state of heightened security with the recent saboteur activity.

*Disappears using fancy time machine*

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First, stuff from the Day-

@Kasimir-

Quote

Bro. 

If it's V/V, Elims have no investment in who dies. Do you seriously think they were all inactive/non-voters? 

If V/V, where else to look for at least one or two Elims D1??? They're not going to stack up on TUA or V!Stick and I'm seriously confused that this isn't occurring to you. 

No, but the elims having no investment in who dies was kind of my point. Easy enough to stay quiet or hop on a bandwagon, starting a whole new train seems unnecessary to me. I'm not saying I village read Archer for starting a new train, just that I think it's wrong to elim read him for it.

I can spin back the question- do you seriously think none of them were non-voters, or that none of them voted TUA/Stick? I think it's much more likely that the elims are on TUA/Stick rather than the two side trains, and that doesn't come from me looking at who was on what train, that's coming from my view of SE as a whole. Again I'm not village reading Archer for starting a new train, just thinking it's weird he got elim read for it. As far as I'm concerned it's NAI, and more village than not if both leading trains are village.

@Fifth Scholar-

Quote

K gonna explain last cycle quickly: was feeling the Stick/TUA thing was weird, I was around for rollover and on mobile. Saw a lot of people viewing the thread and resolved that if there was a last-minute push onto Stick, I’d swing to TUA after seeing the message, and if not, I’d hold. Didn’t realise I was on the final post of the current page of the thread - 8:59 rolls around, I get the notification “there is 1+ new reply” and I know if I hit the button to load the reply on another page, it takes too long because mobile has to load the new page, I have to read it, retype (in bbcode) my vote, and submit in less than 20 seconds. Instead of that, I just hit “submit” and hoped for the best. Instead of a hammer, it’s Mat’s joke post, and the rest is history

My joke post was directly in response to your post, though. So if you're saying the "there is 1+ new reply" that made you vote TUA was my joke post idk what to think about that.

Quote

Interactions: Mat/Stick is really weird. I have a strong village read of both independently but whenever they talk to each other my gut screams “e/e”

When have we even talked to each other though xD

@Kasimir-

Quote

Sometime after, Mat goes onto TUA. Unclear why he picks TUA - @Matrim's Dice?

See the bottom section of this post- mostly it came down to me having a negative gut reaction to TUA's analysis and considering him even in my mind with JNV. I just unvoted JNV since I couldn't vote both, but I voted TUA later after TJ made a point about JNV that made me read them more village.

Now from the current turn:

55 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Hmm, that’s definitely not something that only an elim would know... :P

I didn't know like know know, just knew, like, knew :P. You know.

I explained at least 2 times why I didn't like the Thaid train, so I defer you to that I guess :P.

47 minutes ago, Archer said:

People who took stuff, why! People who didn't, why?!?! 

Took the Nicrosil so that the elims didn't :D. You're welcome

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Leets awoke. 
Why was he waking up? Last he had remembered, he had been staring out the window. And now he was lying down on a cold floor, his hands and feet stuck together with some sort of sticky substance.
He shook himself, and he heard small noises. Like...
Skittering?
What the heck?
WHAT THE HECK WAS THAT IN THE SHADOWS?
It moved all over itself, a pile of skittering, of moving, of horror...
Leets suddenly remembered that he hated bugs. 
"I see you have awakened," rasped a voice from the pile of bugs. 
If he were any less of a man, he would have screamed. Instead, he just let out a little whimper. Much more manly. 
"Fear not, young one. I needed you alone, so I can pass something along to you. A message."
Leets whimpered again. 
The creature fully emerged from the shadows. It looked vaguely humanoid now, but... well he could still see bugs moving around on its face. No.
The face was made of bugs.
Yup, this was the day Leets was going to die. 
The creature continued to speak. "The gift your father gave, it was not the spikes. Those are not his, but rather those of an enemy, one the very cosmere needed defeated. He gave them as a reminder. The gift was something else."
Leets perked up at the mention of his father, but he still couldn't convince his mouth to move in anything resembling words. 
"Also, this is for you to use."
A bug approached him. Leets longed to flee, but could not move very much. So, he made more noises of complaint instead. 
It deposited something in his pocket. It then snipped whatever had been binding his hands and feet. 
"Please do not speak of my-"
And Leets was gone. 
"BUGS! BUGS IN THE SHIP! BIG SCARY HUMANOID BUGS!"
Leets ran all the way back to his room and took cover in his bed. 
He didn't emerge for 12 hours. 

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3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No, but the elims having no investment in who dies was kind of my point. Easy enough to stay quiet or hop on a bandwagon, starting a whole new train seems unnecessary to me. I'm not saying I village read Archer for starting a new train, just that I think it's wrong to elim read him for it.

Will reply to stuff later but first, did you not vote on Biplet for the same thing? I might have misunderstood that vote. 

Also, I don't read it so much as starting a new train as much as staying quiet/under the radar but while voting. 

Also also, when looking at the train - I'm village, I was reading Thaid as village, talked about Fifth/Stick more likely to be v/v than e/e. On Stick's train, TUA flipped green, that leaves Szeth.... which was a retaliatory poke and I don't know what to make of it. So, where are the elims?? They've got to be no-voting or side-voting. 

So it's not that starting a new train is in itself elim indicative, it's that in this game, in the first cycle, the circumstances dictate that elims are likely to be voting there. And from there onwards it's assumptions and PoE which I explained in the post I voted. 

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32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I can spin back the question- do you seriously think none of them were non-voters, or that none of them voted TUA/Stick? I think it's much more likely that the elims are on TUA/Stick rather than the two side trains, and that doesn't come from me looking at who was on what train, that's coming from my view of SE as a whole. Again I'm not village reading Archer for starting a new train, just thinking it's weird he got elim read for it. As far as I'm concerned it's NAI, and more village than not if both leading trains are village.

See, this is the line that sticks out to me. Surely you have to agree it's unlikely they all stacked up on TUA/Stick, due to no investment in TUA versus Stick.

Quote

The Unknown Aon (4)TJ, Thaidakar, Stick, Fifth Scholar
_Stick_ (2): Szeth_Pancakes, TUA

So if it's unlikely they all stacked up, do you think Szeth is Evil? Or Stick? Or Fifth? Why is it you say this and of all the people you could have started a train for, you chose to start one on Bip, when you yourself claim that you believe it's more likely the Elims are on TUA/Stick than the two side trains? (Bip created a Tani sidetrain, recall.) You expressed suspicions of TJ but didn't exert pressure either. That's odd.

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm not saying I village read Archer for starting a new train, just that I think it's wrong to elim read him for it.

Honestly, I find this framing weird. I feel that an Elim would want to appear engaged in the voting, but not get further tied down in the TUA/Stick trains - on the working assumption V/V for the moment - because they know the main trains are going to flip bad, so stacking more onto the train late into the cycle draws attention, and just looks hella bad - look at the side-eyes Fifth got for the last minute switch! So in general, in terms of general activity profile, I'm very confused about your thought process here.

Would E!Archer do this? This is where [Edited to add: I am actually less certain, as I think E!Archer tends to be more aggressive/assertive.]

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I can spin back the question- do you seriously think none of them were non-voters, or that none of them voted TUA/Stick?

Sure, I'm happy to take your question seriously.

Let's look at the trains because I do believe there's at least one Elim in each pile: side-trains, non-voters, and TUA/Stick. I think that's a reasonable belief as I don't see a reason for them to clump and activity generally looks good. My point is that you can't dismiss the side-train reasoning by saying they're more likely to be on TUA/Stick - they can't all stack there, and those weren't voluminous trains. Are you seriously committed to them being all non-voters or on TUA/Stick then? Don't your Bip suspicions implicitly commit you to the logic some of them [=at least one] are on side-trains?

Non-voter pile: <Ash, you, Aman, JNV, Orlok, Danex, Hael, Sequence, Bort, STINK, Tani, Kas>

Of this group, I feel good about Ash for helping to strategise and point out the issues with steel hoarding, good about Hael because E!Hael should not be this disengaged in a game of this complexity and for pointing out Red Wedding lethality, Orlok and Aman on the basis of interactions, STINK because of player behaviour. I'm obviously a non-starter in my own eyes.

This leaves me with a pool of:

<JNV, Tani, Bort, Sequence> - Sequence claimed to be very lost, which could be a lurker strat, or might not be. Akan datang. Of this group, I'm squinting most at JNV - JNV is a new player, so reluctance to vote should not be unusual, but JNV's thought processes do not reflect those of an entirely new player; that and JNV's response to your first vote set off some mild alarms for me. Bort should be looked at too, on the basis of the RB claim. No real view on Tani.

TUA/Stick voter pile: <TJ, Fifth, Thaid, Stick, Szeth, TUA>

Thaid and TUA flipped V so they're non-starters. I think E!Fifth has no reason to make the votes he did - in a V!Stick/V!TUA world, E!Fifth is indifferent and the last minute vote switch just draws unnecessary suspicion. In an E!Stick/V!TUA world, this likely suggests E!Bip but it's still odd to make a last minute naked swap like that - Fifth is gambity enough to be down for a 50% chance at losing E!Stick rather than damning both of them, in my view. TJ is reading Village to me in our interactions. So I'm looking largely at <Stick, Szeth.> No real strong view about either of them, but I think the Elim team's choices would be odd with E!Stick. So probably just Szeth here for me.

Of all the side-train voters, we have: <Karn, Drake, Bip, Archer, Araris, Steel.>

You're right that raw side-train voting alone isn't Evil. But avoiding a known bad train is. Temporally, this means we need to look at the <Archer, Bip, Steel> set, because these all materialised late in the cycle when the trains had come there. Given train volatility (Fifth -> JNV + Bort -> Stick / TUA), I think it's further reasonable to say that there's reason to stay off the main trains and go side-train if they want to appear contributory.

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'm not saying I village read Archer for starting a new train, just that I think it's wrong to elim read him for it.

I think it's reasonable to say: "Hey, this profile fits the profile of where an Evil voter would go to," and vote or at least pressure Archer for it D2. Araris's reasoning also applies, in my book. I'm not sure why you insist it has to be NAI because that seems overhasty as a way of clearing. We clearly know that it has to be Evil for at least one player, if there's at least one Evil player on a side-train.

Edited to add 2: And to be clear, of the side-train voters, I'm currently side-eying Steel again, so that's fun.

Edited by Kasimir
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21 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Will reply to stuff later but first, did you not vote on Biplet for the same thing? I might have misunderstood that vote. 

I voted Biplet for gut/tone, about the same as Archer on D1. Which probably added to my dislike of his train. I also didn't really like her reasoning for voting Thaid, and I indirectly responded to that post last cycle.

21 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Also, I don't read it so much as starting a new train as much as staying quiet/under the radar but while voting. 

But... my whole point is that staying quiet/under the radar while voting is easiest to do while not starting a new train xD

21 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

So it's not that starting a new train is in itself elim indicative, it's that in this game, in the first cycle, the circumstances dictate that elims are likely to be voting there. And from there onwards it's assumptions and PoE which I explained in the post I voted. 

This is probably where the difference is, because I'm definitely speaking more broad here and not limiting it to this game, where I maybe should be.

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

See, this is the line that sticks out to me. Surely you have to agree it's unlikely they all stacked up on TUA/Stick, due to no investment in TUA versus Stick.

So if it's unlikely they all stacked up, do you think Szeth is Evil? Or Stick? Or Fifth? Why is it you say this and of all the people you could have started a train for, you chose to start one on Bip, when you yourself claim that you believe it's more likely the Elims are on TUA/Stick than the two side trains? (Bip created a Tani sidetrain, recall.) You expressed suspicions of TJ but didn't exert pressure either. That's odd.

Depends on how many side trains there were. I don't think all the elims voted TUA/Stick, but if Archer was virtually the only one who didn't, then no, I don't think he's elim because of that. To me it makes much more sense that the elims didn't vote or voted TUA/Stick. But if I'm being honest I did forget Bip started a side train.

I'm open to Szeth or Fifth being evil, sure. I was mobile only for most of the Day turn so I didn't actually go back to see who was on the trains while making that argument- I already said that I'm arguing these things in the broader sense. I was already on Bip before this became a discussion topic, and I wasn't voting her for being on a side train so that point is meaningless. I didn't exert pressure on TJ because it was late in the cycle and as far as I knew no one else had expressed any suspicion on TJ, whereas I knew Archer at least shared my opinion of Bip. This way my vote could be more useful than not, and I figured it'd be useless to pressure someone who's timezones didn't line up :P.

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So in general, in terms of general activity profile, I'm very confused about your thought process here.

Thought process was Elims want to stay under the radar, voting on a side train alone is not that. I understand that this doesn't fit as well into this game as it has in other games.

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'm not sure why you insist it has to be NAI because that seems overhasty as a way of clearing.

Isn't NAI decidedly not clearing? :P.

You maintain that there's an elim in all of the vote groups- My current suspicions fit that as well.  TJ's in the TUA/Stick pile, and Bip's in the side train pile. But also none of my reasons for suspecting them have to do with that, because I view side trains as NAI in the sense that both alignments do it equally as much. I didn't like that the only reason people had for Archer was voting a side train, just like I didn't think people's reasons for voting Thaid were very good.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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@|TJ| Did you V read Stick at this point? Why not secure Stick train against votejacking?

@Kasimir, that train was so poor in reasoning - retaliatory poke from Szeth, retaliatory poke from Fifth, and a vote from Thaidakar without reasoning. Add in the fact Stick's train was in the front for around 24 hours and no attempts were made to move any votes. And I preferred to vote out TUA over Stick because I did think TUA's post was weirdly aggressive, but I didn't mention anything and dismissed it as I thought it was my personal bias speaking. But Stick mentioning it as well added to the fact too. 

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1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Depends on how many side trains there were.

Six.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I was already on Bip before this became a discussion topic, and I wasn't voting her for being on a side train so that point is meaningless.

It's not meaningless if you are committed to the view that Elims aren't on side-trains, though, because if you are, then to be consistent, you have to either take that as clearing Bip from your PoE, or reject the view that Elims aren't on side-trains.

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I didn't exert pressure on TJ because it was late in the cycle and as far as I knew no one else had expressed any suspicion on TJ, whereas I knew Archer at least shared my opinion of Bip. This way my vote could be more useful than not, and I figured it'd be useless to pressure someone who's timezones didn't line up :P.

Okay, fair enough, I can see that.

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Thought process was Elims want to stay under the radar, voting on a side train alone is not that. I understand that this doesn't fit as well into this game as it has in other games.

Why isn't voting on a side train alone staying under the radar though? I mean, even if you want to broadly bring in other games - Heron/Sart didn't draw a lot of attention for being the king of side-trains. Side-train voting in a Turn with multiple side-trains doesn't tend to draw that much scrutiny, especially D1 where vote diversity and reluctance to commit on thin evidence is especially unremarkable.

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Isn't NAI decidedly not clearing? :P.

Fair - I should be more careful with my choice of words. What I'm trying to get at is that you're basically defending Archer on the basis of that activity profile not being problematic, which is just weird to me and I'm trying to see where you're coming from, because if you take it to not be clearing (and presumably have Archer in null) but also aren't willing to see him dead, that's a bit odd. Is it uniquely bad for Archer? IMO no - there are three in that group, all of whom could be side-eyed for the same.

But I don't see why belonging to that activity profile itself can't be grounds for suspicion this early on. I think there's some slippage in your use of NAI here because if NAI just means 'conceivably, a Villager could do this,' then a lot of things are NAI because Villagers do odd things like forget they were targeted by a security officer, or misread their role PM. Villagers also sometimes do do things like vote on a Villager instead of an Elim. If not, then what do you mean by NAI? Presumably something stronger, right? Like "this is not an evidential basis for alignment."

Something about the way you're defending Archer here is setting off negative gut for me, and I'm trying to work out what/why, and whether it's "I don't agree with Mat's reasoning" or "there's something wrong here."

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@Biplet what are your thoughts on Tani at the moment?

@Karnatheon why didn't you vote last turn?

1 hour ago, Archer said:

People who didn't, why?!?! 

I tried to be a responsible villager by going for that thing... :[ 

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think the Elim team's choices would be odd with E!Stick

Spoiler

Image 

 

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18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You maintain that there's an elim in all of the vote groups- My current suspicions fit that as well.  TJ's in the TUA/Stick pile, and Bip's in the side train pile. But also none of my reasons for suspecting them have to do with that, because I view side trains as NAI in the sense that both alignments do it equally as much. I didn't like that the only reason people had for Archer was voting a side train, just like I didn't think people's reasons for voting Thaid were very good.

Screw it, you're V, I'm not going to shuffle squat again D1, I can save the paranoia for D6 or something if we get there =.=

This is not my problem anyway why am I trying to figure you out :|

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1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

what are your thoughts on Tani at the moment?

getting consistently worse, tbh. Pressure on her D1, pretty high activity levels in comparison to the rest of the thread, then almost completely falls off the radar? Yeah I don't like it. Feels like she's trying to hide.

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3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Screw it, you're V, I'm not going to shuffle squat again D1, I can save the paranoia for D6 or something if we get there =.=

This is not my problem anyway why am I trying to figure you out :|

Don’t worry Mat, I can be your cage-shuffle-squat bro for the cycle as well :P 

(after I get sleep…this also applies to everyone who has graciously PMed me :P)

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2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Don’t worry Mat, I can be your cage-shuffle-squat bro for the cycle as well :P 

(after I get sleep…this also applies to everyone who has graciously PMed me :P)

First Araris, then you. Get your own gig, smh >>

Edited by Kasimir
Corrected spelling of 'smh'
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15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Six.

It's not meaningless if you are committed to the view that Elims aren't on side-trains, though, because if you are, then to be consistent, you have to either take that as clearing Bip from your PoE, or reject the view that Elims aren't on side-trains.

...Six

Ok. I definitely had forgotten that. I was thinking like one or two xD

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why isn't voting on a side train alone staying under the radar though? I mean, even if you want to broadly bring in other games - Heron/Sart didn't draw a lot of attention for being the king of side-trains. Side-train voting in a Turn with multiple side-trains doesn't tend to draw that much scrutiny, especially D1 where vote diversity and reluctance to commit on thin evidence is especially unremarkable.

imo it's drawing direct attention to 'here, I'm voting alone' as opposed to being the second/third in a 4-5 train but this is a small enough detail that comes out to personal opinion and we could debate this until the end of time :P.

Heron was also village :).

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

What I'm trying to get at is that you're basically defending Archer on the basis of that activity profile not being problematic, which is just weird to me and I'm trying to see where you're coming from, because if you take it to not be clearing (and presumably have Archer in null) but also aren't willing to see him dead, that's a bit odd. Is it uniquely bad for Archer? IMO no - there are three in that group, all of whom could be side-eyed for the same.

Not willing to see him dead only because of that, no. Again this was said while under the impression that there were no more than two side trains. There's a big difference between side train voting alone and side train voting alongside five others, and this helps me get where you're coming from more.

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Something about the way you're defending Archer here is setting off negative gut for me, and I'm trying to work out what/why, and whether it's "I don't agree with Mat's reasoning" or "there's something wrong here."

/shrug

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This is not my problem anyway why am I trying to figure you out :|

Old Kas habits dies hard :P

4 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Don’t worry Mat, I can be your cage-shuffle-squat bro for the cycle as well :P 

Oh joy

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

imo it's drawing direct attention to 'here, I'm voting alone' as opposed to being the second/third in a 4-5 train but this is a small enough detail that comes out to personal opinion and we could debate this until the end of time :P.

Yeah, I'm basically reading this as a difference of approach at this point and firmly telling the shuffle squat urges to go away, it's too early in the cycle for shuffle squats.

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

/shrug

I don't wanna ML you bro :( 

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29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I didn't like that the only reason people had for Archer was voting a side train, just like I didn't think people's reasons for voting Thaid were very good.

Quote

I'm happy with the vote on Archer, however. Didn't like their vote on Thaidakar either. 

smh :P. 

Also, I'll be at the hospital all day so I'm free, but I'm on phone so quoting stuff will be limited :P. 

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6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

smh :P. 

Also, I'll be at the hospital all day so I'm free, but I'm on phone so quoting stuff will be limited :P. 

... oof. Hope you're/everyone else is alright.

I am still not free, I just hang out and take time manipulation because it's fun and tricksy and I want to be tricksy this game. Also no one remembered why cadmium:( 

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Hi guys!!!!! So pinch hitting is a strange way to start my first game but I'm trying to work with what I got!!! Kas (am I spelling that right? Can I call you Kas? Is that an acceptable nickname? I don't know these things! I'm new!) Was nice enough to reach out to me and let me know some basics!!!!! With that, here I go!!!!

Quick Thoughts with Illwei:

Steel is not teamed with Archer. Steel votes Archer and even though that's not clearing because of the blatant lead Thaidikar got, Steel says this to Archer:

Quote

Unfortunately I still find you suspicious, but if you do flip Village, I'd be willing to take a closer look at Thaidakar. 

I think that the "unfortunately" at the beginning is a village tell in itself, but he is specifically not teamed with Archer because thaidikar flipped green. if Archer flipped yesterday and was an Elim, Steel would have a harder time pushing on Thaidikar by his own logic. this doesn't make much sense to set up unless Thaidikar/Steel are E/E, which we know they aren't.

Okay well that's basically it. :P.

Vague Village Variety, Unordered, 2022:

Archer
Steel
Thaidikar >:(
TJ
Mat
JNV
Ash
Tani

Eclectic Elim Edifice, Unordered, 2019:

Biplet
Bort
Araris

Okay I see that the words I worked with aren't really right but look, I longed for Alliteration !!!

Ask (Questions) and you Shall Receive (Answers)!!!!!

Ask away!!!!!!!!

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