Seonid he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Goodness gracious! Y'all make it difficult to keep up! No more double dipping in games for me! I wasn't around for the random swing onto Jondesu. In hindsight, it seems...ill-advised. I'll elaborate more in my response to rand's read on me. 14 hours ago, randuir said: Siena Mattel (Seonid) Hasn't posted too much C1 either. One thing of note is his decision to support the Yitzi lynch. His provided reasoning is apparently that he's doing it purely because he thinks it would provide a decent amount of information(no other reasons provided), but imho Yitzi is a good enough player that killing him only for the information is a pretty bad play unless it guarantees at least 1 elim to be revealed. Seonid did play QF23, so, I think he ought to know this as well. Slight elim read. Yitzi was one of the players who was reasonably up for the lynch that night when I checked. Or at least under discussion. Your counter-reasoning is...odd to me. The skill of a player has little to do with whether they should be lynched. Policy lynches on experienced players are bad policy in any case. So let me explain my reasoning on information. The purpose of the lynch is to gather information, last I checked. In order to do this, we have to have discussion about the person we're going to lynch. This discussion reveals why people are voting the way they are, and can force an Eliminator to slip up, or at least provide data points to correlate in future cycles. Yitzi was a player who had been discussed a great deal - not as much as randuir or Straw, but he was under consideration and people were examining his posts and the reasons others were suspicious of him. So lynching him would have given us information on how to interpret Aman's suspicion of him, as well as all the other people who contributed. Would it have caught an eliminator D1? Not likely. Certainly not likely. But instead of lynching Yitzi, or you, or Straw, (or even Stick!) we lynched Jondesu. From that lynch, we derive much much less information. Basically, Stick, Crimsn, Brightness, Orlok, and Joe all voted on Jon just because they didn't want Yitzi, randuir, or Straw to be lynched, because they felt they were good. Yitzi would have been a more worthwhile lynch in the sense that we would have gotten more reads out of it. Now, I can look at the aforementioned players and try to see if an evil among them tried to swing the lynch off of a partner, but two of the 5 are neutrals. The other three gave little reasoning. The village hasn't gained nothing, to be sure. But it has gained nowhere near as much as it could have gained. This is also why the Contribution Crusade is bad policy from a winning the game perspective. (Useful in developing the type of meta we want, imo, but not helpful for the village winning games - lynches on inactives give us little to no information as a general rule; though the specifics can vary) 1
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 (edited) @Seonid actually Orlok is neutral too and I did actually give my reasons for why I voted jon at the start of this cycle...I didn't have time to post analysis of him when I voted seeing how I voted like 2 minutes before the cycle ended. Here were my reasons for suspecting him: I was more concerned with finding an elim at the moment and not losing good villagers than I was with learning a lot from the lynch. (Even if that is important too) Edited June 28, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant
Seonid he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said: @Seonid actually Orlok is neutral too and I did actually give my reasons for why I voted jon at the start of this cycle...I didn't have time to post analysis of him when I voted seeing how I voted like 2 minutes before the cycle ended. There was a 3rd neutral role in that lynch? Joe, Orlok, and who else? I mentioned Joe and Orlok, and Wilson and Stink have apparently claimed, but they weren't party to the lynch. 4 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said: Here were my reasons for suspecting him: I was more concerned with finding an elim at the moment and not losing good villagers than I was with learning a lot from the lynch. (Even if that is important too) Yeah - that's what it looked like. Either that or an Elim trying to swing the vote off of a partner. But that's a risky move - I'd think the "buss the partner and gain credibility" move would be better.
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, Seonid said: There was a 3rd neutral role in that lynch? Joe, Orlok, and who else? I mentioned Joe and Orlok, and Wilson and Stink have apparently claimed, but they weren't party to the lynch. Yeah - that's what it looked like. Either that or an Elim trying to swing the vote off of a partner. But that's a risky move - I'd think the "buss the partner and gain credibility" move would be better. heh...wouldn't you like to know yeah, except for my vote actually broke a 4 way tie...which if I was an elim seems like it would've better for me 1
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said: heh...wouldn't you like to know yeah, except for my vote actually broke a 4 way tie...which if I was an elim seems like it would've better for me Unless one of Straw, Rand or Yitzi were evil.
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Just now, Amanuensis said: Unless one of Straw, Rand or Yitzi were evil. True true...which they might still be (but for reals...I thought Jon was evil so *shrugs)
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 I should probably leave reads on players before I die or something, huh
Seonid he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I should probably leave reads on players before I die or something, huh I'd appreciate it.
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Seonid said: I'd appreciate it. It's not much of a reads list, but I just whipped this up. The Flash Cloudjumper asterion137 Paranoid King StrikerEZ Elenion Araris Valerian Ecthelion III Drake Marshall Yitzi2 Dalinar Kholin Everyone not on this list have either: openly claimed neutral, have posted enough content that makes me think they’re either a villager or that they don’t need to be pressured anytime soon, or in the case of Shqueeves and Elbereth, are going through things in real life that mean they should be left alone for a while. None of these players have said or done things that make me think they can’t be evil. I am leaning town on Straw, Arinian, Seonid and Stick, and Arraenae, hence their absence from this list, but I wouldn’t make any hard bets on them being villagers (same applies to players like Lopen and Rand, but in their case I don’t think they should be considered for the lynch until midgame, personally). When I look at Asterion, Striker, PK and Drake I get mixed feelings, and unfortunately I don’t have the time to look into their posts to articulate why right now, so hopefully I can get to it later. I personally would like it if more vocal players could question them, as well as the Flash, Cloud, Araris, Yitzi and Dalinar more, throughout the course of the next few days, as the key to figuring out who is good and evil is player interaction always. I also suggest that this list be cross-referenced with who voted for which lynch yesterday, the reasons they provided for choosing it, and any reasons they gave for not choosing another. Village’s best bet at victory is figuring out who among these are villagers and continuing to narrow it down. After participating in my championship qualifier game, I learned about something called “negative space hunting” which is based around not locking onto a player just because they do something suspicious, but continuing to investigate players that are giving neither good or bad vibes, as eliminators tend to be more careful about their image than we are. Whether it being a result of lurking, or not taking any firm stances on other players / other topics, I feel it is every villagers responsibility to try and get those struggling to participate or form solid opinions actively contributing. Got to go now. If I don’t get on again before the deadline and die like I expect to, then I wish you all luck and lots of fun. Edited June 28, 2017 by Amanuensis
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 @Amanuensis wow I freely pretty good that my list I sent you was almost the same as yours heh I'll try to post mine tonight with some analysis to go along (you never know when a post might be your last )
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Oops me and @StrikerEZ talked forever on discord and I forgot the cycle ended at 4 lolz..let's see how fast I can post! Ready. Set. Go! Here's my suspicions list I mentioned earlier not sure if I have time for analysis rn tho Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - I have little to no read on him and that makes me nervous haha Garshin (Yitzi2) - not sure about him (seems different than usual *shrugs) Jay (The Flash) - started out fine....now seeming slightly evil feeling growing in my gut lol (he seems a little off in our pm) Name Name (Straw) - hey maybe stink was right heh Carcer (Paranoid King) - someone else mentioned him that I kinda trust now Siv (Cloudjumper) - mentioned in a pm...not really a read tho Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - hmm new..not much but maybe elim Roger Elariel (Elenion) - always watchful lol Aimes (Araris Valerian) - Mr. ghost Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) - Mr. Lurker Most of the others I don't have much of an elim read or they're neutrals lol So if I don't die I'll expand on this further next cycle lol
Haelbarde he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Author Posted June 28, 2017 Night is over. I'll get up something as soon as I double check everything. 2
Haelbarde he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Author Posted June 28, 2017 (edited) Day 2 6:30 PM: Not all the volunteers were there to fight, and this was a good thing. If the fight were to be a protracted siege, food and water were going to important to keeping the barricade alive. Water had been regularly distributed during the heat of the day, but as the sun was getting low in the sky, the fighters hungers were rising. It was fortunate that cooks and caterers had been among the volunteers, and with them had come supplies. 7 PM: A couple of volleys were exchanged as the sun was setting - the constabulary hoped that with the sun in the eyes of those manning the barricade, they could sneak some snipers onto some of the roof tops, but a tineye was able to sound the alarm. Locke Tekiel, one of the sentries manning the barricade ended his shift in a bit of a shock though. Orlok was attacked, but survived. PMs are closed. YOU MAY NOT REPLY TO OR CREATE ANY PMs THIS CYCLE. To answer a few questions that have been asked: Order of actions is as follows: Thief -> protects (Thief's Child, Thugs, Smokers) -> Convict's Protect -> emotional allomancy (Rioters, Soothers) -> kills (Ringleader kill, Infiltrator Kill, Lynch) -> Scavenger -> Seeker & Convict's Ward & Tineye. The Ringleader kill won't be distinguished from the Infiltrator kill. There may have been other questions, and if I find any, I'll address them later. Cycle ends in ~48 hours. Player List: Spoiler Jay (The Flash) - has at least two steelminds - a ring, and a helmet Name Name (Straw) - has a name Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - Skaa Crew Member ABC Rioter Siv (Cloudjumper) - has unrealistic expectations Luigi (Shqueeves) - roots for the underdog Edmond Dantès (asterion137) - is seeking revenge for a wrongful imprisonment Carcer (Paranoid King) - is all for rebelion Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) - walks a dark path Roger Elariel (Elenion) - is not the Pauper Noble Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) - is probably not the real Eponine Alrin (Arinian) Aimes (Araris Valerian) - in above his head, wants to fade away Bartolomeus Teki (randuir) - is slightly suspici... Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) - is self-centered, with a brother Keera Wilde (little Wilson) - fights for the right to be free! Siena Mattel (Seonid) - is running away from love Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) - here because she was told to Jack (A Joe in the Bush) Dandi (_Stick_) Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - roped into manning the barricade, possibly by a cousin? Garshin (Yitzi2) - thinks he's in Elendel when he really isn't... Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Mykal (Amanuensis) - is a missionary of the path Phil (STINK) - is simply Phil Julie (Arraenae) - is an idealistic student fresh out of college Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai) Suterna (Elbereth) Edited July 2, 2017 by Alvron 4
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Um...what? Why would the elims attack a neutral?? Especially one with a one shot protection built in? *shrugs* works for me! lol...no villagers or neutrals lost! So um...strange tho (are you seriously trying to make the neutrals hate you cuz...if so...well done)
DeTess she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 @Arraenae, I haven't played a game with Neutrals before. @Seonid, I can see why you disliked the Jondesu lynch, but my point wasn't about that lynch in particular. To elaborate a bit further: I don't think it's a good idea to lynch a player that is very likely to generate information later on for no other reason than to gain information now. If you'd stated some form of suspicion of Yitzi, I would have been fine with it, but lynching him purely for information C1 seems like a waste to me. Also, why in Ruin's name did the elims attack Orlok? I guess I can see it happening if they'd made some kind of deal with the thief's child (entrance into the love triangle for a favor later), but that's about it.
Jo and the Bush all/any Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 @Haelbarde have you sent out all the PM's?
Stick. she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 (edited) Huh Orlok claimed Pauper Noble didn't he Edited June 28, 2017 by _Stick_
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Ahhhhhh ok...so maybe the elims did make a deal to help the thief's child...I just read the requirements for her win con again lol So...the elims are trying to redeem themselves with the neutrals then lolz
Haelbarde he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Author Posted June 28, 2017 Okay, that should be all the PM's done. Poke me via PM if you think I may have forgotten you.
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Oh wow I'm alive. Cool. @The Flash @cloudjumper @asterion137 @Paranoid King @StrikerEZ @Elenion @Araris Valerian @Ecthelion III @Drake Marshall @Yitzi2 @Dalinar Kholin These are players I'm either suspicious of or have absolutely no significant reads on. I would like them to be the focus of discussion today. I think I'll start with a vote on Striker. What are your thoughts on Straw, Rand, Yitzi, Stick and Brightness? Same question for everyone on this list, as well as your thoughts on each other, please and thank you.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 As is obvious, I was attacked last night. You'll all recall that I asked for a PM from an eliminator, which I received, and have come to a reasonable and very limited agreement with them in return for an attack this cycle.
TheMightyLopen he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 Just now, OrlokTsubodai said: As is obvious, I was attacked last night. You'll all recall that I asked for a PM from an eliminator, which I received, and have come to a reasonable and very limited agreement with them in return for an attack this cycle. Wow, okay. Tell us who they are or we'll kill you! ...I'm kidding of course. Thanks for the explanation though. I was gonna be scratching my head on that one for a while. XD Anyways, I don't recall if I mentioned it here(I said something about it in the QF), but I'm still sick, so I'm in no state to do analysis or anything, so don't expect much from me until my head clears up a little. And then I'll probably want to read back through things a bit... >> One thing I do remember out of the 500 posts is that I was suspicious of The Flash for some things he's said. Don't remember what it was specifically, so, until I look over all of his posts, I'll just put it down as a tone read, because that was part of it. Something just seemed off with him.
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 28, 2017 Posted June 28, 2017 By the way anyone I didn't tag is welcome to answer the same question I asked those I tagged. Your opinions matter too!
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