Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Yitzi2]

45 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well, that was certainly interesting. Sadly, I didn't get my player analysis post written out at all because I went to sleep before the cycle ended. And I managed to forget to vote. Whoops. I'll actually go an de do the analysis later. I need to catch up with all my notifications and stuff. But I really don't like how Jondesu was lynched last minute. That just felt really off to me, going back and rereading it.

 

That it did...and I'm one of the people who was saved as a result.

EDIT: Breaking a tie last-minute is suspicious.  Breaking a tie for someone who wasn't even in the running beforehand is just plain weird.  The only think in our favor is that it's pretty much impossible that I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are all elims.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

That it did...and I'm one of the people who was saved as a result.

Probably better the lynch went this way to be honest. Like I said multiple times, I'm not a fan with people accumulating votes when their not able to get on and respond, but upon reviewing Jon's pregame posts, it seems like he's going to be pretty busy with real life things for a few weeks, so all things considered, not much different than lynching an inactive or lurker.

I'm going to try falling asleep again before work and then I'll want to interact with Yitzi a bit to help generate a read on him beyond null.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Yitzi2]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm going to try falling asleep again before work and then I'll want to interact with Yitzi a bit to help generate a read on him beyond null.

So you want me to know that I'm under observation...

I begin to see why elims tend to be scared of you.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

So you want me to know that I'm under observation...

I begin to see why elims tend to be scared of you.

They do? How do you know that? Where has that been said? Hmm? HMMMM? 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

So you want me to know that I'm under observation...

I begin to see why elims tend to be scared of you.

Well I did try to get you lynched yesterday, if that's any indicator of me observing you

That being said, I'm not scary at all. Just a cuddly koala here. Don't mind the fangs and claws

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Well I did try to get you lynched yesterday, if that's any indicator of me observing you

That being said, I'm not scary at all. Just a cuddly koala here. Don't mind the fangs and claws

So. You're a drop bear. Excuse me while I edit that into my previous post. 

[Yitzi2]

3 minutes ago, The Flash said:

They do? How do you know that? Where has that been said? Hmm? HMMMM? 

A few places, but the one that comes to mind is the intersite championship game, where Aman said "despite being one of most feared "high threat" players" about himself.  (Herself?  I don't know other players' genders for the most part, and have been mistaken for a woman myself due to my uncommon name.)

Edited June 26, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, The Flash said:

So. You're a drop bear. Excuse me while I edit that into my previous post. 

Yup but I'm a reformed one. No face shredding for me (anymore).

But yeah potential scum slip but my reputation proceeds me so it's probably NAI.

Also he. Jade Curtiss doesn't seem a bit feminine I suppose 

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

A few places, but the one that comes to mind is the intersite championship game, where Aman said "despite being one of most feared "high threat" players" about himself.  (Herself?  I don't know other players' genders for the most part, and have been mistaken for a woman myself due to my uncommon name.)

Ok cool. FoS retracted. But I'm still watching 

[Amanuensis he/him]

But yeah I'm scary don't know why probably going to die tonight so be active Town and do good things yada yada

[Yitzi2]

Just now, The Flash said:

Ok cool. FoS retracted. But I'm still watching 

As you should be.  We should all be watching each other.

While attention is on me, here's something that's been bothering me: Why is it “Rust their warnings, rust their lies!”, rather than  “Rust their warnings, ruin their lies!”?  ("Rust and ruin" is a common pairing.)  Was it just that it was started by someone who's not that familiar with age 2 Scadrial?

[Stick. she/her]

25 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

EDIT: Breaking a tie last-minute is suspicious.  Breaking a tie for someone who wasn't even in the running beforehand is just plain weird.  The only think in our favor is that it's pretty much impossible that I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are all elims.

Wait why? 

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

But yeah I'm scary don't know why probably going to die tonight so be active Town and do good things yada yada

Inb4 troll elims kill a neutral instead 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Lol at the edit you quoted STICK. I didn't even see that. How intriguing.

[Yitzi2]

6 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Wait why?

Because 8 elims out of 22 non-neutrals is a ridiculously high number of elims?

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Because 8 elims out of 22 non-neutrals is a ridiculously high number of elims?

That's why I loled'. On top of two of them claiming unique roles (which is pretty silly to lie about since it would be super easy for the real Convict/Noble to counter claim and get them killed), it's pretty obvious that any group of 8 players can't "all be elims."

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis
Snap into a slim jim

[Yitzi2]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That's why I loled'. On top of two of them claiming unique roles (which is pretty silly to lie about since it would be super easy for the real Convict/Noble to counter claim and get them killed), it's pretty obvious that any group of 8 players can't "all be slims."

I think the second reason is stronger than the first, since it is possible that the elims contacted the real Convict/Noble and threatened them (or the Ward in the Convict's case) to keep them from counter claiming.  I don't think it's all that likely (that sort of thing would probably backfire, similar to your point about elim!Rand, plus be a waste of a kill if they did it anyway, plus reveal at least one elim if they decided to go to the village with it), but it would be a possible play.  Eight elims, on the other hand, is pretty much impossible without heavy advantages to the village (e.g. 2 Coinshots with unlimited Steel, or several alignment detectors).

Edited June 26, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Stick. she/her]

k I totally misread that. I read it as 'The only thing in our favor is that it's pretty much impossible that I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are elims.' 

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

k I totally misread that. I read it as 'The only thing in our favor is that it's pretty much impossible that I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are elims.' 

That pretty much is what I said.

Or did you forget the first part and just read the "I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are elims" part?  Because that would be quite a confession, and quite an accusation as well.  (Though if I were an elim who'd essentially been caught, and were willing to lie, something like that might make for an interesting way to mess with everybody's heads.  Particularly if some of the rest of that list were and some weren't, which is statistically fairly likely.)

Edited June 26, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

I'm awake and stuff. Will probably look through all of Yitzi's posts and ask some questions since he's around. Also see Jon viewing the game, sorry again for my part in your death, bud. Hope things are well and such

[Arinian]

Hmm... from what to start...

First I will say I don't like how this all thing with neutral turned out in this game. I don't like this all role claims from neutrals, not gonna blame them for that but for me it kills all sense in neutral roles for this game. Here truly no any real danger for neutrals after they claimed so they can just sit and do nothing and wait for their victory. Only danger for only role was Parole Officer for Convict but after Joe claimed that he is Convict... I think that PO lost all his chances on victory. Of course neutrals can create danger for themselves if they will try to go with one side...

What I want to say that there need in some roles or mechanics that will encourage neutrals to work with elims or village... or encourage village or elims to kill neutrals. Of course someone like Joe can find troubles on his... head even now.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Sooo... whom I suspecting.

I honestly don't have any good suspects... from my point of view all previous turn was absolute trash. Half of cycle people was debating whom to kill Stink or Straw(When nor Stink nor Straw done something something suspicious). Second part of cycle was about Rand and Joe and all discussion was based on "Is Joe doing something bad" or "Rand is alienating neutrals".  And then all ended with lynch on Jondesu... why and how?... who knows not me.

Okay, I really don't have any solid suspicions(That's night 1right now from where I should get solid suspicions? "shrug"), but atleast will say what I think about some players:

Lopen. I will just point what caught attention in his posts.

Quote

I've gotta go to church for now, but when I get back, I'll place my vote somewhere(probably Yitzi or Stick, unless another lynch pops up that I agree with somewhat).

I quoted... you will see further why I quoted that.

Quote

Okay, so we've got 5 hours left, but since rollover is in the middle of the night for a lot of us, I don't think the thread will be very active that late(I'll probably be around honestly, but no promises ). Anyways, my point is that if we're gonna move the lynch somewhere, you should probably get your thoughts in the thread as soon as possible so others have a chance to see them and consider them.

These votes on randuir are really surprising to me. Like, I get the point that alienating Neutrals from the village is not a good thing to do, but it seems like a rookie mistake to make as an elim, and I don't consider randuir a rookie(his first game he was an elim and pretty much everyone trusted him >>).

And that his first post after he came back. As you can see he didn't placed vote. Honestly most of his posts for D1 looked for me like fillers. Also his words about moving lynch... I think it can be interpreted as slight preparing for saving someone from lynch(you know... one word there another there).

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Well, I sure don't feel as strongly about Rand being town as Aman seems to feel. And you know I love tinfoil.  I wouldn't think that Rand would intentionally make a mistake like alienating the Neutrals though, so if it is the case that both of them are elims, I'd think that Aman was just trying to save his teammate by doing what you suggest. This could also be good cover for why both of them wouldn't die to the elim kill as well, since everyone would always be unsure about them because of this, so they could say the elims wouldn't want to kill them since they're under suspicion. But yeah, tinfoil. 

Okay, I think it's time to explain my idea... I know it's absolute scratch but from what I've seen I got feeling that Rand and Lopen can be teammates(and this Lopen's post can be just distancing). Yeah there looks like Lopen not  cares about if Rand will be lynched or not, he even didn't throw his vote. But after Aman's post:

Quote

Aman, want to lynch Yitzi then? I'm cool with that. Yitzi. I guess if this lynch doesn't work out, I might actually consider voting Straw, mostly because I do find the pile up on Rand weird, like there's some eliminator involvement, and the obvious answer is that it's to save Straw.

 Lopen hastly throws vote on Yitzi. Looks like nice way to save teammate from lynch, safe and nice. And his reason of weird bandwagon on Rand looks flimsy, cause on my opinion bandwagon on Rand obviously formed as back reaction on Rand's push on neutrals(if mind don't lies to me most of votes on Rand were thrown after Willson's words about "neutrals not villagers". So maybe Lopen atleast particulary right... hmm... "shrug", cause situation close to one about which I talking right now). 

And there goes Lopen's reasoning for vote on Yitzi:

Quote

Okay, I quoted all of his posts, but honestly I'm really not sure after reading all of his posts and there wasn't a lot to respond to so I deleted all of them except that one above because I had to set the record straight. 

Ummm, I think his reasoning for defending Straw was a little strange, and I didn't agree with his reasons for voting Rand(although I think I can see it coming from a villager). It's just, I'm not sure if he's trying to take advantage of the situation to get rid of Rand, or he genuinely thought he was the PO and it was a good idea to lynch him. Besides that, him switching his read of Rand to Neutral/maybe elim to Neutral/probably village is a little strange, since he seemed to have changed his mind solely from Aman defending Rand. That's pretty much the whole case against Yitzi.

Okay, so Lopen's reasons to vote on Yitzi: 1)Strange defending of Straw. 2) Strange reasons for voting on Rand.

You know I not gonna bother myself too much and will just copy Aman's reasons to suspect Yitzi(will just say that Lopen's reasons to vote for Yitzi looks familiar... hmm... where I've seen them earlier):

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Yitzi: Just read all his posts. Seems okay on the surface, but he's been defending Straw without actually defending him, which is odd. For example, his first post of the game is him responding to Araris' vote with "Aren't a lot of PMs good for the village?" but he doesn't necessarily say Straw is village. Could be their teammates together. Could be a teammate of his was already voting for Straw so he wanted to stay away from it. Could even be that he expected Straw to get lynched and just didn't want to deal with the fallout, but either way, it feels off to me. I do like that he's asking quite a few questions, but I don't like that he hasn't shared any opinions of the players so far (discounting Rand), and I really don't get his logic of voting for Rand in the first place, which I already talked about. I wish I could give him credit for reevaluating Rand, but an elim would probably want to back off of Rand anyway, given my hard defense / vocalization that I'm suspicious of people trying to kill him. Conclusion: leaning evil. @Yitzi2, can you give me your thoughts on at least five different players, as well as Straw (so 6 total).

So, conclusions: atleast guilty in not having his own opinion for voting on someone.(of course different people can have same reasons for voting on someone, but sequence of how all is happened mostly makes me suspect Lopen. He was saying that he suspecting Yitzi earlier than Aman but didn't vote till there was good situation for that). If Lopen is elim I think Rand can be too(I want to say that I'm not suspecting Rand he looks  villagy enough, but if Lopen is elim I think chances for Rand to be elims is high).

Yeah, I know that not very solid. But I can't give more then I have.

Sooo next...

I really got bored on part with Lopen so I will try to be short. If someone will want wider answer I will probably give it.

Yitzi. Cause I said I will be short i will be short(almost dwarf (not funny joke, done)).

I'm didn't get so deep in analyzing his posts, and I didn't reread all what he posted. But from previous time when I get read through his posts I got bad vibes (bad gut read... or call it how you want). Mostly is his position, I was getting feeling that he tries to stay unseen, voting just to vote, not cause he was suspecting someone. Especially after Aman questioned his reasons to vote on Rand. It's felt like he was trying to find reasons after he voted, scratching answers and blah blah blah... I will just quote one of his posts.

Quote

I will admit that I don't know how Rand usually does things.

I'd still like the answer to the other question: Do you feel it's better to lynch a neutral with an incentive to help the elims eventually, or a slightly suspicious non-neutral?

That. Feels like hmm... like he tries to change core of their dialogue, don't know how to say it better. Tries to go further from uncomfortable zone.

Of course it usual for some villagers first to vote then create reasons for their vote(I'm doing so sometimes ).

Later he took his vote from Rand, but this was done under Aman's pressure(of course it's Aman and it's hard to stay under his pressure... it's like... hmm... about what I was talking? Ahh... nevermind) and he didn't looked genuine when he retracted his vote, atleast that what I think.  

Conclusion: 1)He can be elim due to his flimsy, unsure position with his votes, that all can be interpreted as elim trying to hide behind mass. 1)Of course it's can be just confused villager who don't want to be called for inactivity when he still didn't formed his own suspicions and so just goes with mass of people. I leaning first but just due to my gut read.

I have some other gut reads, but it's absolutely unreasonable trash so... mehh... not gonna post it right now, maybe later when I will find some normal reasons.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Also I don't see any need in 48 h night turns. I'm voting for 24 h night turns 

That's all for now I think. "shrug"

Hmm...

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ninja'd by Arin, will read shortly.

2 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

So you want me to know that I'm under observation...

I begin to see why elims tend to be scared of you.

First question. How does me observing you relate to elims being scared of me?

EDIT: Oh and refer to the paragraph Arin quoted from me about you, too, since I asked you a question there at the end. @Yitzi2 to make sure you see this edit.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Arraenae]

I'm in class now, but I'll get up thoughts later.

[Yitzi2]

5 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Conclusion: 1)He can be elim due to his flimsy, unsure position with his votes, that all can be interpreted as elim trying to hide behind mass. 1)Of course it's can be just confused villager who don't want to be called for inactivity when he still didn't formed his own suspicions and so just goes with mass of people. I leaning first but just due to my gut read.

Is it so hard to believe that I read other people's suspicions and found them believable, then read the post of someone who knows Randuir's meta better than I do and decided that was more credible?

[Arinian]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

Is it so hard to believe that I read other people's suspicions and found them believable, then read the post of someone who knows Randuir's meta better than I do and decided that was more credible?

You was defending your vote on Rand for too long to believe in that.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Re: Neutrals, as a villager I prefer it this way, honestly. I would be happy if I knew all 6 because then those are 6 players I can not waste any time analyzing for being evil. Significantly useful for process of elimination, since it really turns this game from an 28 player puzzle into a 22 player one.