Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Stick. she/her]

22 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

That pretty much is what I said.

Or did you forget the first part and just read the "I, Rand, Straw, Joe, Crimsn, Orlok, Stick, and Brightness are elims" part?  Because that would be quite a confession, and quite an accusation as well.  (Though if I were an elim who'd essentially been caught, and were willing to lie, something like that might make for an interesting way to mess with everybody's heads.  Particularly if some of the rest of that list were and some weren't, which is statistically fairly likely.)

I just didn't get your post and how the two things were related (breaking ties being suspicious and that bunch of people not being elims). And I thought you were stating that's it's just impossible for said people to be elims and that got me confused.

I got it later, so it's ok

Edit: somehow I didn't notice the existence of this entire page O.o Reading now

Edited June 26, 2017 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

Re: Lopen's Vote on Yitzi: I think Lopen's progression of opinion is pretty good, honestly. I just think I beat him to the punch in stating what's peculiar about Yitzi. Lopen is definitely a player I'd revisit in the future, but I've got a town read on him for now.

Re: Other Gut Reads: I don't really think any read is trash, even if I prefer ones with reasoning. I've also realized that trying to articulate the thoughts that are harder for us to express tend to be a lot more alignment indicative than ones that are obviously observable / commonly interpreted. No harm in trying, at least.

EDIT: These comments directed at @Arinian but apply universally.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

18 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I honestly don't have any good suspects... from my point of view all previous turn was absolute trash. Half of cycle people was debating whom to kill Stink or Straw(When nor Stink nor Straw done something something suspicious). Second part of cycle was about Rand and Joe and all discussion was based on "Is Joe doing something bad" or "Rand is alienating neutrals".  And then all ended with lynch on Jondesu... why and how?... who knows not me.

I believe it was pretty productive, I mean comparatively, you know? 

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Re: Lopen's Vote on Yitzi: I think Lopen's progression of opinion is pretty good, honestly. I just think I beat him to the punch in stating what's peculiar about Yitzi. Lopen is definitely a player I'd revisit in the future, but I've got a town read on him for now.

Re: Other Gut Reads: I don't really think any read is trash, even if I prefer ones with reasoning. I've also realized that trying to articulate the thoughts that are harder for us to express tend to be a lot more alignment indicative than ones that are obviously observable / commonly interpreted. No harm in trying, at least

I really agree with that second thing. It's hard for an elim to have a gut elim read of someone. I struggled with that a LOT in my first game. Now most people are more experienced and could have a way of faking it... but I'm not sure. 

[Arinian]

Re: Lopen's Vote on Yitzi: I think Lopen's progression of opinion is pretty good, honestly. I just think I beat him to the punch in stating what's peculiar about Yitzi. Lopen is definitely a player I'd revisit in the future, but I've got a town read on him for now.

Re: Other Gut Reads: I don't really think any read is trash, even if I prefer ones with reasoning. I've also realized that trying to articulate the thoughts that are harder for us to express tend to be a lot more alignment indicative than ones that are obviously observable / commonly interpreted. No harm in trying, at least.

EDIT: These comments directed at @Arinian but apply universally.

Shrug. Maybe you right but that's what I got.

Last time when I said my gut reads I was lynched on first turn, better I will review my suspects and then decide which is solid enough.

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I believe it was pretty productive, I mean comparatively, you know? 

You right... how to say. I prefer lower number of messages, or atleast time to read all messages, cause I usualy catching some minor things that make me suspect someone... and there was too much post for me and everything was too fast. Lets say I have slower playstyle or I'm just slowpoke.

[little wilson she/her]

7 hours ago, randuir said:

First of all, several people are accusing me of 'alienating' the neutrals. The thing is, I don't consider a neutral running around asking for an elim to contact him so that they can work together a neutral, exactly. Maybe Joe cleared all of that up at some point, but when I made my vote two people had indicated that they'd gotten PM's indicating Joe wanted to work with the elims, and there wasn't much indication he was doing the same in the other direction (apart from his earlier post in the thread calling for all neutrals to aid the village, which seemed to just be misdirection at that point). If nothing else, the votes will have reminded the neutrals that they have to be neutral, (or have to be sneaky about being on the elim-team), because they can still be lynched if they appear to be going all-in on the elim-side. I don't expect them to be all-in on the village side, but they shouldn't be surprised to be brought up for the lynch if they appear to be aiding the elims far more than they are aiding the village.

Emphasis mine.

Forgive me if I don't actually believe this.

The initial vote, at 9:04 AM MDT:

On 6/25/2017 at 9:04 AM, randuir said:

Oh, well, in that case it's easy. Joe.

I've got nothing against Neutrals, but I do have something against Neutrals that decide they want to work with the elims. Given that the C1 lynch isn't particularly likely to hit an elim (all discussion seems to be focused around STINK and Straw, and I don't have much reason to believe any of these two is an elim), we might as well take out a 'Neutral' that has decided he wants to aid the elims.

Less than an hour and a half later:

On 6/25/2017 at 10:25 AM, Arraenae said:

Actually, I PMed Joe.

He specifically said that if I was an elim, he would build goodwill, if I was a neutral, it didn't matter, and if I was a villager, it would let Chaos happen on a large scale.

I can see where this would seem worrisome from a village standpoint. However, that second bit will become relevant here in a bit.

About 30 minutes later:

On 6/25/2017 at 11:02 AM, BrightnessRadiant said:

Well I'm a bit annoyed at Straw for revealing this in the thread, but I was already annoyed at Joe for wanting to help the elims. He had messaged me as well, asking if I was an elim and saying he'd help us in exchange for protection. I said I wasn't but I'd help him if he'd help the village. He said he would help us if we protected him and his ward.

And before you say that you just didn't see this, let me direct you to this post, posted 45 minutes later

On 6/25/2017 at 11:47 AM, randuir said:

A couple of people have asked me whether I am the parole officer. So let me answer a different, but related, question. Why would a villager benefit from voting on Joe?

The goal of convict!joe, as well as several other Neutrals, is to ensure that specific people survive till the end of the game. The quickest way for the game to end is if the village plays a perfect game and manages to lynch an elim (nearly) every cycle. The second quickest way for the game to end is if the village makes a lot of mistakes, doesn't get any elims, and the elims win by having a majority. For this second win-condition, every living 'survivalist' will ensure that this moment occurs sooner, as it is in their interest to end the game as soon as possible. Furthermore, the elims can guarantee immunity from the elim kills to the neutrals, while the village can't completely guarantee immunity to the lynch, unless someone can prove his neutral role(which, with the exception of the thief, is not possible this game, I believe).

So, the village would benefit from a dead Joe as it removes a potential elim vote from the end-of-game hammer if it comes down to it, thereby delaying said hammer for a cycle. If this had been any other cycle, the lynch would probably be better spent trying to get an elim, but neither STINK nor Straw are engaging in (for them) alignment indicative behavior, as far as I can see. I haven't really seen anyone else say or do anything that heavily suggest that they are elims, so that's why I think taking out the known potential threat, ratehr than gambling on maybe hitting on is the better course of action.

More justification of why a lynch of a neutral who is open to helping both the village and the eliminators. And you're also worried that he's going to side completely with the eliminators to end the game as fast as possible, even though he said he wanted to "let Chaos happen on a large scale." I'm sorry, but did I miss that part of chaos' definition? Where things are decidedly unchaotic? Huh. Fascinating. Maybe I should take another gander at the dictionary:

Nope. Didn't miss anything. It's definitely about disorder and confusion. Chaos. So where exactly does chaos fit with your idea of Joe siding with the eliminators? Or all of the neutrals siding with the eliminators (which actually seems to be what you're getting at here)? Because again, that doesn't seem chaotic. That seems fairly ordered. The game would essentially be over by the end of Cycle 3, even if it would carry on for a few cycles after that, with its final gasps of air.

I don't know about you, but I define 'chaotic' games as ones that are still running after cycle 8 and can still go either way. Where both sides have a chance. Chaos can be fun. Siding entirely with one team is not chaos, nor is it particularly fun.

Anyway, this is completely ignoring Brightness' comment about how Joe was willing to help the village. So no, I don't accept your excuse that you had no indication he'd help the village as well. You did have indication. You just chose to ignore it because it didn't fit your narrative.

I'm not sure I'd say you're trying to alienate the neutrals, since that gives you more credit than you deserve, but I do definitely think you are anti-neutral. If a neutral isn't all in with you, they're an enemy. Heaven forbid we play to our alignment and/or win con.

[Arraenae]

30 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Is it so hard to believe that I read other people's suspicions and found them believable, then read the post of someone who knows Randuir's meta better than I do and decided that was more credible?

Honestly, when you put it like that, it gives me a slight gut suspicion of you. It's very minor, but the way you worded it sounds kind of like an excuse.

I'll go through your posts later.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Probably best indicator of being evil is lack of genuine attempts to solve the game. Unfortunately townies do it too for various other reasons, such as lack of time, desire, confidence and experience. I was just talking about this in a PM, but the most useful thing a villager can ever do is make it obvious they're a villager by trying. Read accuracy doesn't really matter if you can't convince people you don't have ulterior motives, and in my opinion it's a lot tougher be an elim pretending to be a villager trying to solve the game (when they already have all the answers) than it is being a villager doing the same.

If every villager does their best to be a villager, chances are the village will recognize who's just pretending, regardless of who gets night killed.

RE: Neutrals

My take is everyone should just leave them alone. At this point with the Pauper and Convict open claims they've probably got a group PM and can be considered their own faction who just want to survive / make sure each of them wins. It's inevitable that the eliminators try to recruit them but I'm taking the Neutrals at their world that they're only interested in preserving game balance between us and the elims and that's perfectly reasonable and I probably wouldn't prefer it any other way. Close games are more fun etc etc let's find the people that we have to kill and not get distracted by neutrals and everyone can have fun and become best friends.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Yitzi2]

 

55 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

First question. How does me observing you relate to elims being scared of me?

EDIT: Oh and refer to the paragraph Arin quoted from me about you, too, since I asked you a question there at the end. @Yitzi2 to make sure you see this edit.

To the first question: The fact that you're twisty enough to want your suspect to be aware of the observation suggests that you're twisty in your elim-finding methods.  Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that that'd be the sort of thing to potentially explain why elims seem to be scared of you.

As for your other question (thoughts on Straw plus five others): I didn't have quite that many analyzed before, so I'll have to go back to the threads for a few more, but:

-Straw: Wants to contribute (presumably to avoid the lynch), but doesn't really have any meaningful way to do so.  The other players said that's within his normal village meta, and I'm inclined to believe them on that (I'm still too new to know much of the meta myself).

-STINK: More interested in socializing than winning.  Could be any alignment (though neutral roles other than PO and Thief are unlikely since they'd come with someone to focus more of his socializing on), but probably not going to be a major contributor to victory regardless.

-Randuir: Probably the PO, considering how eager he was to lynch the Convict.  Not really sure what else there is to say on that front.

-Araris: He was (I did not notice this when I first voted for him) the second person to vote for Straw, copying the reasoning of the first.  He then did not post again until pushed; that sounds to me like either a fairly busy villager, a villager with nothing really to say, or an elim trying to hide.  (Admittedly, I did much the same, though in my case the lack of stuff to say was at least partially due to the fact that I wasn't able to get to the thread until it was well underway.)  He then went on to call out the people who joined his vote, which I can admire in a villager (I see it as a mark of intellectual integrity), but could also be an elim trying to throw suspicion on villagers.

-Drake Marshall: His posts seem to have (with the exception of a cancelled vote on Joe) been RPing very focused on the Revolution.  Now, he might just be an RP-aligned player, but it seems to me that the heavy Revolution focus might also be a way for an elim to seem village.

-Joe: His directing the lynch to Jondesu near the last minute (and it seems clear it was his initiative) would seem a lot to me like an elim trying to protect a buddy while maximizing the possible number of buddies he was protecting, but that would require his Convict claim to be a lie, which is dangerous due to having two people who can call him on it.  So I'm inclined to say that he really did simply want chaos like he claimed.

50 minutes ago, Arinian said:

You was defending your vote on Rand for too long to believe in that.

How does that follow?  Just because someone defends a position doesn't mean they can't be persuaded otherwise by enough evidence (in this case, the input of someone who clearly was considering the one factor I did not know, namely the meta).

Edited June 26, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Yitzi2 said:

 

To the first question: The fact that you're twisty enough to want your suspect to be aware of the observation suggests that you're twisty in your elim-finding methods.  Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that that'd be the sort of thing to potentially explain why elims seem to be scared of you.

As for your other question (thoughts on Straw plus five others): I didn't have quite that many analyzed before, so I'll have to go back to the threads for a few more, but:

-Straw: Wants to contribute (presumably to avoid the lynch), but doesn't really have any meaningful way to do so.  The other players said that's within his normal village meta, and I'm inclined to believe them on that (I'm still too new to know much of the meta myself).

-STINK: More interested in socializing than winning.  Could be any alignment (though neutral roles other than Convict and Thief are unlikely since they'd come with someone to focus more of his socializing on), but probably not going to be a major contributor to victory regardless.

-Randuir: Probably the PO, considering how eager he was to lynch the Convict.  Not really sure what else there is to say on that front.

-Araris: He was (I did not notice this when I first voted for him) the second person to vote for Straw, copying the reasoning of the first.  He then did not post again until pushed; that sounds to me like either a fairly busy villager, a villager with nothing really to say, or an elim trying to hide.  (Admittedly, I did much the same, though in my case the lack of stuff to say was at least partially due to the fact that I wasn't able to get to the thread until it was well underway.)  He then went on to call out the people who joined his vote, which I can admire in a villager (I see it as a mark of intellectual integrity), but could also be an elim trying to throw suspicion on villagers.

-Drake Marshall: His posts seem to have (with the exception of a cancelled vote on Joe) been RPing very focused on the Revolution.  Now, he might just be an RP-aligned player, but it seems to me that the heavy Revolution focus might also be a way for an elim to seem village.

-Joe: His directing the lynch to Jondesu near the last minute (and it seems clear it was his initiative) would seem a lot to me like an elim trying to protect a buddy while maximizing the possible number of buddies he was protecting, but that would require his Convict claim to be a lie, which is dangerous due to having two people who can call him on it.  So I'm inclined to say that he really did simply want chaos like he claimed.

How does that follow?  Just because someone defends a position doesn't mean they can't be persuaded otherwise by enough evidence (in this case, the input of someone who clearly was considering the one factor I did not know, namely the meta).

Before I read all of this, can you do two players who haven't claimed neutral? Not very helpful for me getting your thoughts on potential villagers / eliminators  sorry for not clarifying that earlier.

[Yitzi2]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Before I read all of this, can you do two players who haven't claimed neutral? Not very helpful for me getting your thoughts on potential villagers / eliminators  sorry for not clarifying that earlier.

Ok, but right now I have some other things to take care of, so it'll have to wait a few hours.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Yitzi2 said:

Ok, but right now I have some other things to take care of, so it'll have to wait a few hours.

No rush.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Ah sleep feels so good!   

So RIP Jon..sorry your were a villager 

If anyone's wondering, I only switched votes at the end because I was feeling strangely like all of the top candidates might actually be village. I always doubt my votes for the first day lynch. So, I decided to help by switching my vote, and I also was trying to avoid a tie. Although, it would've been kinda cool to have a 3 or 4 way tie...not really good....just fun lol.  

I'll be back with analysis 'n stuff later! 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Ah sleep feels so good!   

So RIP Jon..sorry your were a villager 

If anyone's wondering, I only switched votes at the end because I was feeling strangely like all of the top candidates might actually be village. I always doubt my votes for the first day lynch. So, I decided to help by switching my vote, and I also was trying to avoid a tie. Although, it would've been kinda cool to have a 3 or 4 way tie...not really good....just fun lol.  

I'll be back with analysis 'n stuff later! 

Judging by the tag, it seems Hael wanted to see it happen too

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Judging by the tag, it seems Hael wanted to see it happen too

Ha! I totally missed the tag 

We sure are making the GMs work hard in this game lol

I wasn't that surprised when there was already like 67 replies when I got on today 

[Stick. she/her]

Wooo tried to get an idea of how elim!rand operates by reading lg30 but dang that game is hard to get without actually reading the ruleset [which I didn't]. But, I did get that most players had a village read on him. A quick glance at the elim doc [that is one long elim doc.] told me he had various strategies and things, and he played his parts carefully. Given his vote on Joe and its timing, it might just be a villager acting on their instincts. I'm not like entirely convinced he's village, though. I'm open to the possibilities of him being an elim or the PO. If he's evil, I'd say he's teammates with Straw- he was the one who revealed that Joe claimed neutral in-PM and offered to help the elims- trying to get the neutrals against the village. 

9 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

If anyone's wondering, I only switched votes at the end because I was feeling strangely like all of the top candidates might actually be village. I always doubt my votes for the first day lynch. So, I decided to help by switching my vote, and I also was trying to avoid a tie. Although, it would've been kinda cool to have a 3 or 4 way tie...not really good....just fun lol. 

Yeah...I feel like elims somehow just won't let one of their teammates get lynched D1 [or come dangerously close, even], which is part of why the wagon on Jond at the end seemed better, I guess. Less time till rollover = less time for elims to try and persuade others to steer away the lynch from a teammate= better chance of getting an elim. But well. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[STINK he/him]

lynch on jon was bad lynch

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

lynch on jon was bad lynch

I don't think I'd call, "lynching someone who's slightly suspicious" to "save the players you think might be village and preventing a tie", a bad lynch. Even if it did happen quick.

[STINK he/him]

ok what did jon do that was so evil again

[Arinian]

Hello? Do we really need 48h night turns? As I said for me 24h night more then enough.

[STINK he/him]

yes we do arinian we dont have pms during the day

[Straw he/him]

Hey people, I'm checking in to let you guys know I'm not inactive. Anyway, 48 hour nights seem excessive so bye bye.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, STINK said:

ok what did jon do that was so evil again

What did anyone do that was so evil D1?

[asterion137 he/him]

8 minutes ago, STINK said:

lynch on jon was bad lynch

Agreed. The "Chinese fire drill" as Aman put it near the end of D1 led to a surprising lack of voting logic towards him.

 

Edited June 26, 2017 by asterion137
ninja'd by aman

[STINK he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

What did anyone do that was so evil D1?

i mean ive already been over it but i mean sure can't wait for us to do the same on D2 and just make discussion pointless wew boy what a great day