Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Steeldancer he/him]

31 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

First, congrats on all the analysis. Although I'm not sure if your read on Lopen is because you hope he's village? Or just a gut read?

I also disagree that I'm inactive, the word you are looking for is "lurking," which despite the generally negative connotations I'm still thinking of what to add. I'm afraid I haven't read throught all the day one stuff, I'm working my way through the night phase first.

Sorry, didn't realize you were around. Looking forward to hearing from you

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

So, in the past few days a family crisis has come up that I've been dealing with, and I'm not certain when the situation will improve. Thought I could manage the game as well, but... it's a bit much right now. I will still be playing, but probably won't be doing more than skimming thread at best and getting summaries from a couple people. PM me if you need to reach me, and sorry for not being able to be active right now. :/ 

Sorry to hear that. I hope everything works out 

[DeTess she/her]

10 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

So, in the past few days a family crisis has come up that I've been dealing with, and I'm not certain when the situation will improve. Thought I could manage the game as well, but... it's a bit much right now. I will still be playing, but probably won't be doing more than skimming thread at best and getting summaries from a couple people. PM me if you need to reach me, and sorry for not being able to be active right now. :/ 

Allright, I hope the situation will improve again, and I understand if this means you won't be able to participate as much as you usually do.

On a related note, I have always wondered about the relevant piece of forum etiquette: Is up-voting a bad news post like that to show support a thing you can do? I always felt that 'liking' a piece of bad news is odd but I'm just not sure.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Speaking of lurking, how goes things @Araris Valerian.

[Straw he/him]

@randuir, your wish has been granted!

[xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer]

5 hours ago, randuir said:

Ah, that explains a lot. From Joe's reaction in the dead-doc I'd assumed you where also experienced with playing mafia on other forums, which is why that comment stuck out to me. To get some more info about this I'd also asked you just how much experience you'd had with mafia back during the day-cycle.

Ahh, I did miss that question day 1. Hmm, I have been playing mafia games off and on for the past..six years maybe? I've played in at actual parties and online at town of salem. Now that I think about it more, I was a part of and helped set up mafia-style forum around four years ago. Not entirely certain how I forgot that, actually.. Anyway, I played a couple games on that for a few months before it died out. When I played the MR game on it, that was actually the first time in around 7 months that I had played any mafia games. I thinl that was what you were asking, haha. Sorry if I misunderstood the question. XD

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Things go. But I tend to just leave the tab open, so it should look like I'm viewing the thread 24/7. Doesn't mean that I am. I don't have anything new to contribute right now except that I'm somewhat surprised by the turn the lynch took, since I missed out on the entire discussion about Jondesu. I'll say something useful once day rolls around.

[Arraenae]

Alright, I got 18 screenshots of Yitzi's posts with a standard Samsung Galaxy S6 and accessing this through the mobile site. I got 26 screenshots of Rand's posts. Rand speaks a lot, and he has some big walls of texts in the beginning.

I'll get an analysis of this up soon. Analyzing from mobile sucks.

[Stick. she/her]

Yeah...It sucks. I've been playing this game mostly via mobile too ._.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

Yeah...It sucks. I've been playing this game mostly via mobile too ._.

I've been playing on mobile since I joined the 17th shard, so I'm used to it. 

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, The Flash said:

I've been playing on mobile since I joined the 17th shard, so I'm used to it. 

Whoa

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Whoa

It also meant that when I finally saw Mestivs signature for the first time, it REALLY creeped me out lol

[Stick. she/her]

3 minutes ago, The Flash said:

It also meant that when I finally saw Mestivs signature for the first time, it REALLY creeped me out lol

Mestiv's signature tends to creep people out, yeah.

[Straw he/him]

I also play SE only on mobile. I'm on an iPad though, so that makes it less bad.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

I play on mobile mostly but it's a tablet so yeah...still gets annoying sometimes when I'm trying to do monster posts lol

@The Flash new found respect sir  (especially when you do large posts lol)

[Arraenae]

Rand starts with a giant post with role advice. He says he writes out all of his role advice before the game starts, so I'll ignore it. His first post that he writes knowing his alignment mentions the PO right off the bat. It seems like he's paying attention to the Neutrals and is already slightly antagonistic.

Then, he responds to what El said about his advice for Tineyes in a massive post with lotz of quotes. Stick asked about Orlok's win con, and Rand responds, which shows that he's been reading the rules.

Dalinar asks why all the Neutrals don't just claim to avoid getting attacked. Rand says that he'd prefer to lynch the Thief and PO, because those roles are detrimental to the village.

Randuir does a bit of banter. NAI.

Rand makes another massive post. He says that he thinks Straw could be the elim Tineye/the elims could have a Tineye. I'm not very sure why he thinks this. He mentions that Stink and Straw could be the PO and Convict, respectively. I'm curious why Rand doesn't vote on Stink, since earlier he said that the PO's goal is bad for the village. He asks Crimsn if she's trying to play the newbie card. Then he puts up a vote rally, which shows that he's paying attention. I'm starting to notoce a big focus on Neutrals.

Rand summons Joe to respond to Straw talking about Joe's PM offer.

Rand says that Straw is probably village and that Joe was probably a villager trying to see if Straw was an elim. Joe actually did do something similar in LG21, though it's not something I'd expect Rand to know about.

Straw says that the numbers-based PMs were made by PK, and Rand apologizes.

Rand votes on Joe, beacause he doesn't want to leave a Neutral alive who will work with elims. We see more of Rand's anti-Neutral sentiment.

NOTE: I'm posting this now to check the rules quickly. If nobody posts inbetween that time, I'll edit the rest of what I want to say into this post.

[Yitzi2]

11 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Rand starts with a giant post with role advice. He says he writes out all of his role advice before the game starts, so I'll ignore it. His first post that he writes knowing his alignment mentions the PO right off the bat. It seems like he's paying attention to the Neutrals and is already slightly antagonistic.

Then, he responds to what El said about his advice for Tineyes in a massive post with lotz of quotes. Stick asked about Orlok's win con, and Rand responds, which shows that he's been reading the rules.

Dalinar asks why all the Neutrals don't just claim to avoid getting attacked. Rand says that he'd prefer to lynch the Thief and PO, because those roles are detrimental to the village.

Randuir does a bit of banter. NAI.

Rand makes another massive post. He says that he thinks Straw could be the elim Tineye/the elims could have a Tineye. I'm not very sure why he thinks this. He mentions that Stink and Straw could be the PO and Convict, respectively. I'm curious why Rand doesn't vote on Stink, since earlier he said that the PO's goal is bad for the village. He asks Crimsn if she's trying to play the newbie card. Then he puts up a vote rally, which shows that he's paying attention. I'm starting to notoce a big focus on Neutrals.

Rand summons Joe to respond to Straw talking about Joe's PM offer.

Rand says that Straw is probably village and that Joe was probably a villager trying to see if Straw was an elim. Joe actually did do something similar in LG21, though it's not something I'd expect Rand to know about.

Straw says that the numbers-based PMs were made by PK, and Rand apologizes.

Rand votes on Joe, beacause he doesn't want to leave a Neutral alive who will work with elims. We see more of Rand's anti-Neutral sentiment.

NOTE: I'm posting this now to check the rules quickly. If nobody posts inbetween that time, I'll edit the rest of what I want to say into this post.

He is probably right about the POs and Thief being bad for the village.

As for why the elims could have a Tineye, I've only played one game with neutral roles (other than this), but in it, the elims did have a courier (the equivalent for that game).

I'm also a bit wary of labeling as "anti-Neutral sentiment" the position that certain particular neutrals are more likely to benefit the elims rather than the village and that it is therefore in the village's best interest to lynch them, for no small part because I am "guilty" of such a position myself (targeted against Rand, ironically).

What does your analysis say about him actually being the PO himself?  I thought he was, but now I'm not so sure...

[Arraenae]

Storms I finished the rest of the post and LOST the WHOLE THING! That's the problem with editing...

I'll just put my conclusion here: Rand has a lot of anti-Neutral sentiment. He switched from wanting to not lynch the Convict D1 for the PO to... wanting to lynch the Convict D1. I'm not sure if he's genuine about this or not. It's possible that he's an elim that wants to antagonize the Neutrals to swing elim. Has he ever played a game with Neutrals before? If he has, that would be a good game to look at. Rand's paying a lot of attention to the game. Unfortunately, I feel that he's such a high-volume poster that it's NAI.

[Yitzi2]

3 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

It's possible that he's an elim that wants to antagonize the Neutrals to swing elim.

I believe we already discussed that possibility D1 and concluded that it would simply be too risky a play and backfire too easily for Rand to be trying for that.

[Steeldancer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

I believe we already discussed that possibility D1 and concluded that it would simply be too risky a play and backfire too easily for Rand to be trying for that.

Unless he just WANTED us to think that. 

[Yitzi2]

9 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Unless he just WANTED us to think that. 

Even if so, it would be unlikely for that to move him to a lynch chance much lower than average.  Ergo, there would be a significant chance of him being lynched, being found to be an elim, and ending up antagonizing the neutrals to the elims instead.  I'll agree that it isn't 100% proof of his non-elim-hood, but the only way to turn it into a reason for suspicion that he's an elim is if you think he's a really bad player, or at least a risk-loving one.

Edited June 27, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I for one don't see Rand trying such a risky maneuver when he knew he would be offline for the rest of the Day, and therefore unable to quickly react if it looked like the town was turning against him, as it did.

[Amanuensis he/him]

43 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Unless he just WANTED us to think that. 

This line of thought is a slippery slope, imo. I can't think of many people who have tried to use IKYKs to their benefit like that and succeeded. Most players automatically operate at first level psychology. Plus there's the fact that I was the one that defended it to begin with, while he was away, so if he was an eliminator with that intention, I'd have to be as well as there's no other way he could have predicted me fighting off anyone who attacked him.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Just finished reading day one. My head now hurts. 

Straw: Suspicious He could have just been defending himself, but he jumped on the joe counterbandwagon fast. Played off against different people in a number of posts.

Aman: Village: generally helpful, getting people to post and generating dicussion

Randuir: Village who did honest analysis yet got caught in firestorm of saying something controversial. I don't see any grand plots to turn the neutrals against the village, all I see is some logical analysis with pro's and con's. The vote on Joe I disagree with, but I still think he's village.

Joe: He did get the Jondesu vote to happen...but it does follow his model for Chaos.

Yitzi, why have you been posting so much this night phase/why didn't you post much comparably at the end of day 1?

Stink: Doing stink thinks.

Orlock: Why did you defend Randuir when he is arguing that neutrals should be potential lynch targets?

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

This line of thought is a slippery slope, imo. I can't think of many people who have tried to use IKYKs to their benefit like that and succeeded. Most players automatically operate at first level psychology. Plus there's the fact that I was the one that defended it to begin with, while he was away, so if he was an eliminator with that intention, I'd have to be as well as there's no other way he could have predicted me fighting off anyone who attacked him.

Unless he was just taking a huge gamble that someone would...but I don't think that's very likely.  (And if he was, that would leave open the possibility that not lynching him quite yet might lead to his recklessness giving us other elims as well.)

5 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Yitzi, why have you been posting so much this night phase/why didn't you post much comparably at the end of day 1?

The end of day 1 was when I was sleeping.  If you meant the second half of day 1 (Sunday): Probably because it's easier to get started with a phase where I didn't already miss a large chunk of it.  I also had an in-person game (of Seafall, if you've heard of it) taking up a significant chunk of Sunday evening.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Yitzi2