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Posted (edited)

I have... A SUSPICION!!!! 

I re-read the thread, and I am now suspicious of Lopen. My thought process is such- the elims are probably looking at this monster of a day 1 and figure that they can get away with not posting much. So I specifically looked for an "occasional posting pattern." Now I know Lopen is sick, but he hardly said anything during the night turn. Anything! That night turn was 48 hours, I think even when sick there is probably some time to do analysis. Unless he's trying to fly under the radar. There are several people doing that, I'm now also a little suspicious of PK, but for now I'm going with Lopen . I think our active players are mostly, or entirely village. 

I will note this has nothing to do with the fact that he voted on me. And I would appreciate hearing from you Lopen. I like logic when refuting suspicions. 

One last thing. What are the PMs Haelbarde and Joe were talking about in the beginning of the day? Am I missing something? 

Edited by The Flash
Posted (edited)

@Mod people, I hope this is OK.

Time to make a code conversion guide! I made this up myself! In this code, all letters are undercase.
Step one: Choose a passcode! Example: , (jfdm
Step two: Choose a number between one and three. Example: 2
Step three: Convert the passcode into a set of numbers using the spoilered guide below! Example: 27, 50, 45, 10, 6, 4, 13

 

a = 1, b = 2 c = 3, d = 4, e = 5, f = 6, g = 7, h = 8, i = 9, j = 10, k = 11, l = 12, m = 13, n = 14, o =15, p = 16, q = 17, r = 18, s = 19, t = 20, u = 21, v = 22, w = 23, x = 24, y = 25, z = 26, , = 27, ! = 28, . = 29, ? = 30, 1 = 31, 2 = 32, 3 = 33, 4 = 34, 5 = 35, 6 = 36, 7 = 37, 8 = 38, 9 = 39, 0 = 40, - = 41, / = 42, : = 43, ; = 44, ( = 45, ) = 46, ‘ = 47, “ = 48, & = 49, SPACE = 50

Step four: Discard the numbers in your set of numbers that don't have your chosen number as a factor. If you have no numbers left, you have one number, 0. Example: 50 ,10, 6, 4.
Step five: Add all of your numbers together! Example: 70
Step six: Make a message! Example: Hello! Hi!
Step seven: Choose another number between one and five. Example: 4.
Step eight: There are five sets you use, and one base set. The number you chose is the set you use. Set zero is the base set. Example: Set 4
Set 0:

 

Row 1: a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j

Row 2: k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t
Row 3: u, v, w, x, y, z, ,, !, ., ?
Row 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 0
Row 5: -, /, :, ;, (, ), ‘, “, &, SPACE

Set 1:

 

Row 1: SPACE, &, 3, ‘, ), (, ;, :, /,-

Row 2: k, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, “, 2, 1, 0
Row 3: ?, ., !, ,, p, y, x, w, v, u
Row 4: t, s, r, q, z, o, n, m, l, 0
Row 5: j, i, h, g, f, e, d, c, b, a

Set 2:

 

Row 1: SPACE, a, &, b, “, c, ‘, d, ), e

Row 2: (, f, ;, g, :, h, /, i, -, j
Row 3: 0, k, 1, l, 2, m, 3, n, 4, o, 5
Row 4: 6, p, 7, q, 8, r, 9, s, 0, t
Row 5, ?, u, ., v, !, w, ,, x, z, y

Set 3:

 

Row 1: a, b, c, d, e, q, ,, !, ., ?

Row 2: f, g, n, I, j, 1, 2, 3, 4, SPACE
Row 3: x, l, m, h, o, 6, 7, 8, 9, 0
Row 4: p, z, r, s, t, -, /, :, ;, (
Row 5: u, v, w, k, y, ), ‘, “, &, 5

Set 4:

 

Row 1: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 0

Row 2: k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t
Row 3: a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Row 4: u, v, w, x, y, z, ,, !, ., ?
Row 5: -, /, :, ;, (, ), ‘, “, &, SPACE

Set 5:

 

Row 1: f, g, h, i, j, z, ,, !, ., ?

Row 2: 0, k, 1, l, 2, m, 3, n, 4, o, 5
Row 3: (, b, ;, g, :, h, /, i, -, j
Row 4: a, f, SPACE, &, c, d, “, e, ‘, )
Row 5: p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, y


Step nine: Choose either up or down and choose either left or right. Example: Down and right.
Step ten: Time to translate your message! First of all, in your set there are five rows, each with 10 numbers in them. If you chose right, the last number in each row is 0, and the first number is 9, if you chose left, the first number is 0, and the last number is 9. The last digit in the number you got when you added several numbers together is the number in the row, the other digits are the number of rows you go up/down. First, you take the number of rows you go up/down and starting with row 1 go that number of rows in your chosen direction (in my example, I would end up on row 3). Then, go to the row number you got (in my example, I would go to the first number in the row). You now have the location of the letter a (in my example, the location would be set 4, row 3, symbol 1). You can then go from there to make a complete translation set that you can use to translate your message. Example: My encoded message would be hevvy"thi"

Edited by Straw
Posted
5 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:
 

Ok, lengthy analysis incoming:

Flash: Asked me for clarification about a convoluted plan I suggested Joe might be pulling off.  Did a bit of RP, slightly overdone on the "I'm village" side of things.  Voted for Straw.  Night 1, FoS'd me for a fairly flimsy reason, though the results of the day1 vote may have made him a bit jumpy on that result (I know that it wasn't a bunch of elims arranging to save elim!me, but I can't really expect anyone else to).  Later, FoS'd Rand, so it's probably just the day1 vote.

Cloud: Made a few disorganized comments.  Suggested that if Rand is an elim, he doubts that Aman is...if they both are, Cloud probably is as well.  (I would say that so is Crimsn, but Crimsn claimed neutral and apparently told Joe her role; it's possible that she told Joe that she's really an elim, but that seems implausible.  It's worth revisiting if all neutrals are accounted for as not being Crimsn as well as Rand and Aman being elims, but that's as far as I'd go.  Crimsn also was a lot less emphatic about the "if Rand is, Aman isn't" statement than Cloud was.)

Asterion: Called out the eavesdropping potential of the group PMs; if STINK is an elim, this is a point for village!Asterion.  Also pointed out the flaw in the "Rand is an elim trying to turn the neutrals" theory.  Overall, he looks village-ish to me.

PK:  He started out with a post that seems way too suspicious to have come from an elim ("lovely X you have here...a shame..." is just too "classic mafioso" for someone who is all that self-conscious about being thought to be an elim).  His most recent post seems to have disregarded the possibility that Joe is dealing with both sides.

Striker: Suggested that the elims might want to take out the neutrals.  This seems a bit strange (elims don't need to take out neutrals to win), so I'd guess that either he's an elim who didn't suggest his idea to the other elims, or all the elims are inexperienced, or he's not an elim.  I'm getting a bit of a village read from his first post of day 2, but I never trust reads that don't have clear reasoning behind them.

Elenion: Did a quick vote due to (he claimed, at least) being busy and following STINK (who read village to him in PMs).  If STINK is an elim, he should be under suspicion as well.  Also defended Rand, but not as emphatically or knee-jerkily as Aman (see below), so I don't see that as a strong indicator of anything.

Araris: Posted once to copy someone else's vote (and the reason for it),   Then significantly later (after being asked), he gave more detail and challenged Rae and Elenion for switching to Straw rather than someone else.  The criticism doesn't seem very well-thought-out, and it looks to me like he's posting to avoid the lynch; whether that's an elim who doesn't want to help the village, or a villager with no ideas (either just because he has no ideas, or because he's too busy for a full analysis like this) who doesn't want a mislynch, I couldn't say.

Ecth: Accused STINK because

Drake: Pointed out that the elims wouldn't want to waste a kill on neutrals (of course, we saw that they did, but presumably that was as a deal involving the Thief's Child and therefore not a waste).  This is presumably a response to Striker, and may be a weak indication that he and Striker are not both elims.  He also suggested some things the elims could do (though at the expense of the neutrals); as an elim, he'd probably want to keep those secret if he was planning on actually doing them.  It could also be a basis for getting the village to lynch neutrals...actually, in light of his focus in the earlier post that the elim might claim convict in particular (not exactly the safest role to claim because it has two people who can refute it), he just (well, "just" in the sense of when I typed that; it's some time from there until I post this) became my top candidate for PO.  If so, I wonder whether his retraction was due to a PM from Joe, offering to let himself be lynched later on.  Called for lynching STINK in a clearly exaggerated manner and not-serious; if STINK turns out to be an elim, that will raise the question of whether this was a way of protecting STINK without being too obvious about it.  (i.e. it slightly increases the chance that both are elims, but without confirmation that STINK is, Drake still has the evidence in favor of him being non-elim, though my thoughts about the danger inherent in the PO remain in place; again, it's nothing personal, Drake.)

Dalinar: Pointed out that it's in the interest of the village for the neutrals not to roleclaim, in a way that implies why it is in the interest of the neutrals to roleclaim.  That seems a bit elim-ish to me.  On the other hand, he claimed to be "lurking", which is something an elim might be wary of doing.  Also wary of analyzing due to it getting him lynched; as someone with a few close calls in that regard, I can see why that would have an effect even on a village player (after all, any village player knows of only one situation that is unquestionably a mislynch, and wants to avoid it).

And as a bonus:

Aman: Clearly defending Randuir, to the point of instaposting about votes for him before even reading the reasoning for the vote, and others have pointed that out too.  It's a bit too blatant for me to want to say that it's because they're elim-buddies, and on top of that Rand voting for Joe doesn't really seem very elim-like (though Wilson pointed out that could be a ploy by Aman and Rand because they're both known to be so dangerous as elims; while we're all agreed that it's a huge tinfoil, I just don't see any other good reason for the intensity of the defense.  Alternatively, it's possible that elim!Rand didn't even consider the alienation factor and just voted Joe for some other reason, perhaps as an elim deal with the PO), but I can't really think of any other good reasons for that reaction.  Orlok also pointed out that Aman gave an argument that really would give the neutrals a reason to help the elims.  He (she?  I don't really know these things) told cloudjumper "I'm reading town on you" due to cloudjumper saying "if Rand is elim, Aman isn't" after Aman had admitted that he almost certainly was if Rand was...Aman.

(Aman also indicated significant suspicion of Jon, who turned out to be village, but those sort of mistakes happen often, especially early on, so it's not a major contributing factor in my vote.)

 

3 hours ago, Seonid said:
 

The more I think of this, the more I'm suspicious of Aman

Part gut, part being uncomfortable with his ardent defense of randuir. Part because of the way he turned the lynch away at the last minute. Part because of his demonstrated propensity to play counterintuitively as an Elim before. And part because I'm paranoid.

I should note that I don't trust Joe at all. And I should warn the rest of you that you shouldn't either. Convict? Could be. Could be an Elim claiming the convict. Sure, two players can refute it, but both players who can also have incentive to work with the Elims. And if the convict or PO actually calls them out, then they risk being Elim!killed. It's a risky move, but it's totally something Joe might do.

Do I actually believe this theory? Not really. But am I worried enough about it to bring it up? Certainly. And I think it's worth discussion.

OOOOOOOO. Interesting.

Posted
57 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

*analysis of Lopen, leaning villager*

Yay!

49 minutes ago, The Flash said:

*analysis of Lopen, leaning eliminator* 

:( 

Okay, I'll actually respond. :P I think I posted 2 or 3 times during the Night, which, any other game, would be considered a regular amount. It's just that there's so many posts in between, which makes it look like I'm not posting very often. Granted, I probably would have posted more had I not been sick, but I didn't feel the need to say much during the Night, because Nights don't need as much discussion as the Day. I'm also in the QF, which takes up some of my SE time. As for analysis, I don't have it in me to do that right now. I am starting to feel better, so I think I'll be back to my regular self by at least the end of this next Night. Before that, I'll probably just respond to things that relate directly to me, and if something sticks out that I think should be mentioned.

I don't know how I feel about you voting on me, tbh. Like, you said it has nothing to do with me voting on you, but it kinda feels like it does. I think I've contributed more actual game discussion than a good amount of players, and I mentioned not having the focus to do analysis, so it's weird how you picked me. /shrug

Posted

I think I'll put my vote in on Randuir. @Yitzi2 I see what you're saying but the Aman-Rand-Cloudjumper situation personally makes me feel that Aman is only likely an elim if Rand is too. Aman also has done a lot to facilitate discussion outside of that one lynch and imo has improved the quality and quantity of analysis thus far, so I'm reading town either way on him most likely.

Posted
1 minute ago, asterion137 said:
 

I think I'll put my vote in on Randuir. @Yitzi2 I see what you're saying but the Aman-Rand-Cloudjumper situation personally makes me feel that Aman is only likely an elim if Rand is too. Aman also has done a lot to facilitate discussion outside of that one lynch and imo has improved the quality and quantity of analysis thus far, so I'm reading town either way on him most likely.

Rand is probably town, too, even if many people seem to disagree. But what do I know. I'm only human :P 

Posted
1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

By the way, @TheMightyLopen, @The Flash, @_Stick_: I'm relatively certain all three of you are town, so I would advise not voting for each other :P 

Seriously? Hmmm. Well I don't see it, especially for Flash, but I guess it wouldn't hurt to prod some other players at this point.

Another vote on Rand. Urgh. >>

Posted
1 minute ago, TheMightyLopen said:
 

Seriously? Hmmm. Well I don't see it, especially for Flash, but I guess it wouldn't hurt to prod some other players at this point.

Another vote on Rand. Urgh. >>

I could be wrong, but there's a few things he's said that make me lean town the past two turns. His D1 wasn't the greatest ever, but I could see it him just being a confused villager.

Posted

It just feels like what happened with Rand D1 is exactly what would happen if the elims felt like one of their own was being bandwagoned on D1

Posted
Just now, asterion137 said:

It just feels like what happened with Rand D1 is exactly what would happen if the elims felt like one of their own was being bandwagoned on D1

As in the mass pile of votes, or the turnaround?

Posted
1 minute ago, asterion137 said:

the last second turnaround 

If anything I believe that points to Yitzi being the eliminator, personally. There was a point where Rand had 8 or 9 votes yesterday, which if I didn't interfere, would have either stayed that way or gotten worse. That's generally an indicator of a D1 mislynch, whereas Yitzi's had trouble getting enough votes to overtake it.

Posted
1 hour ago, The Flash said:

I have... A SUSPICION!!!! 

I re-read the thread, and I am now suspicious of Lopen. My thought process is such- the elims are probably looking at this monster of a day 1 and figure that they can get away with not posting much. So I specifically looked for an "occasional posting pattern." Now I know Lopen is sick, but he hardly said anything during the night turn. Anything! That night turn was 48 hours, I think even when sick there is probably some time to do analysis. Unless he's trying to fly under the radar. There are several people doing that, I'm now also a little suspicious of PK, but for now I'm going with Lopen . I think our active players are mostly, or entirely village. 

"I think our active players are mostly, or entirely village. "

Hm I don't know about this one here. Usually at least two elims are active, because it's advantageous to do so. In my experience a contribution crusade rarely works, because elims draw attention to themselves by lurking, so they generally don't do it. To address the rest of your post, it seems like you're just suspicious of Lopen because he was suspicious of you. Now I'm not as suspicious as Flash now because his suspicions feel genuine to me. 

About Rand, I feel like, as some people mentioned in D1, that elim!Rand wouldn't risk alienating neutrals that could be used to help them control the lynch later on into the game. Also, Rand and Aman have been pretty important contributors to the village thus far; to kill one of them in a mislynch when both of them are village would be pretty detrimental to the village. I do agree that there are some pretty sketchy things about the turnaround on the lynch on D1 though, so if I see real, conclusive evidence, then I would be up for lynching Rand.

Posted

Might as well say I think Cloud has a good chance of being a villager, and that despite Seonid's super-bad previous-post, he's likely town as well.

Posted

I'm back and ready to analyze!...I feel pumped up for some reason lol....I need some kind of theme song while I work lol. *goes to listen to "Can't you hear the people sing" :P (I literally did haha)

Suspicions, suspicions, everywhere, but never an elim we find lol (that is based off of a quote but I cannot remember what from lol)

Here we go....(Sorry these aren't really in order of my greatest suspicions to the least. I just kinda wrote them out lol. Although it's pretty close to the right order. I'm writing this in after I'm done obviously hehe)

1. Seonid- slight elim read (has mentioned being suspicious of Aman in our pm and just voted on him. I'm not sure if this is alignment indicative or just a player having a healthy does of Aman wariness lol)

2. Straw- slight elim read (maybe stink was actually right lol) As far as the pm spreading fiasco, I'm not sure if it was alignment indicative or just a villager wanting to be connected to as many players as possible. It is nice to be in the middle of the pm world cuz a lot goes on there. Group pms might've been overboard but for a player that likes to analyze quietly and go off of others reads this might have been his goal. (Personally I don't favor these tactics but hey maybe it's not as bad as I think lol)

3. Asterion- elim read (I keep getting gut feelings about him? Her? Sorry not sure. Anyways they have been pretty active but I don't know that I've heard that much from them to consider them a villager yet. I'd like to analyze their posts in greater depth after this post.

4. Yitzi- slight elim read (ah one of my flip flop suspicions. Meaning I keep changing my mind about him lol. Just seems off. Sorry, gut read that needs to go analyze your posts a little more.)

5. Arinian- slight elim read (why am I always suspicious of you lol.....another who's post I must go do in depth look over.)

5. Araris- slight elim read (barely tho) hasn't been on much and voted in Day 1 without much reasoning other than that Straw apparently likes PMs heh. (But with a first day lynch, that's probably as good a reason as you can get lol) I'd like him to post more. @Araris Valerian

6. Dalinar- slightly elim vibe, but possibly just lurking cuz that's how he rolls lol

7. Elenion- oddly quieter than when he was an elim in my first game but also quieter than when he was just recently village so *shrugs @Elenion are you busy irl or something? You seem a bit lurky...

8. Cloudjumper- not much but slight elim read

9. The Flash (still watching but starting to lean village now)

I honestly am having a hard time with him lol..I think I've flip flopped my suspicions on him more times, and in a shorter amount of time, than anyone ever before lol. I'm leaning village for now, but like I said, it's been a back and forth process heh. I'd like to see more from him before I pass final judgments. @The Flash (don't be offended fellow flash fan haha...although when you think about it, flash is betrayed by pretty much everyone he trusts at one point or another so I'd doubt we should trust each other as fans of the flash lolol. It's all about deception.) ;)

My biggest village reads are: Aman, Randuir, Striker, and maybe Arraenae too.

I honestly don't think that the big deal with Aman and Rand is alignment indicative of them being elims. I feel like they're both the kind of players that wouldn't put themselves under that much suspicion on the first day. Granted, some players might, but I'm not sure they'd do that. I could maybe see Aman protecting Rand from the lynch the way he did to get people to trust him later, but from everything else I've see of and about Aman I feel he's a villager. And I doubt Rand would've gone for a plan so insanely risky.

As for Striker I've just gotten zero elim vibes from him so far and that's saying a lot when I'm so paranoid lol

I've heard Aman vouch for Arraenae several times now (once in a pm) so I'm leaning village for her based on the fact that Aman is the one I trust the most rn.

I'm starting to lean village for Lopen slightly as well, but I'm not sure how much leeway to give him when concerning his mild not as activeness lol, cuz I know how sick he's been since he's my brother irl :P (I'd like to see him post more when he's feeling better so I'll wait to pass any real judgment one way or another until he's on the mend)

Posted
8 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Suspicions, suspicions, everywhere, but never an elim we find lol (that is based off of a quote but I cannot remember what from lol)

That would be The Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge. "Water, water everywhere, and all the boards did shrink. Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink." (Rime might be one of my all-time favorite poems. :P )

Posted
15 minutes ago, little wilson said:

That would be The Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge. "Water, water everywhere, and all the boards did shrink. Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink." (Rime might be one of my all-time favorite poems. :P )

@little wilson Bless you! I hate not knowing what I'm quoting haha :lol: (and yes that was it..I knew I was quoting off that last line, but didn't know what from heh)

Posted
1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I honestly don't think that the big deal with Aman and Rand is alignment indicative of them being elims. I feel like they're both the kind of players that wouldn't put themselves under that much suspicion on the first day. Granted, some players might, but I'm not sure they'd do that. I could maybe see Aman protecting Rand from the lynch the way he did to get people to trust him later, but from everything else I've see of and about Aman I feel he's a villager. And I doubt Rand would've gone for a plan so insanely risky.

I don't think Rand is an elim based on his actions but rather how throngs of people came out of the woodwork and flipped the vote in his favor at the last second. I think also that Rand didn't know what consequences his words would have since it wasn't THAT far-fetched to make a policy lynch on joe after he soft-claimed village early D1 and went back and claimed convict later in the cycle, along with his admission that he was open to working with the elims. By the time the bandwagon started on him, Rand was gone and couldn't clarify/redact his statements. However, it seems like a potential Randuir lynch doesn't have much support right now, so since I think Rand and Aman lynches basically go hand in hand, I'll vote Aman instead. It seems to me like the downside of elim!Aman outweighs the upside of Town!Aman right now, plus I'll be a lot less suspicious of Rand if Aman does turn out to be village

@BrightnessRadiant I'm a he btw

Posted (edited)

 

2 hours ago, asterion137 said:
 

I don't think Rand is an elim based on his actions but rather how throngs of people came out of the woodwork and flipped the vote in his favor at the last second. I think also that Rand didn't know what consequences his words would have since it wasn't THAT far-fetched to make a policy lynch on joe after he soft-claimed village early D1 and went back and claimed convict later in the cycle, along with his admission that he was open to working with the elims. By the time the bandwagon started on him, Rand was gone and couldn't clarify/redact his statements. However, it seems like a potential Randuir lynch doesn't have much support right now, so since I think Rand and Aman lynches basically go hand in hand, I'll vote Aman instead. It seems to me like the downside of elim!Aman outweighs the upside of Town!Aman right now, plus I'll be a lot less suspicious of Rand if Aman does turn out to be village

@BrightnessRadiant I'm a he btw

OOOOOOO. INTERESTING.


(3) AmanuensisYitziSeonid, asterion137

(1) StrikerEZAmanuensis

(2) The FlashThe Mighty Lopen_Stick_

(1) Yitzi2Paranoid King

(1) STINKEcthelion III

(1) randuirArraenae

(1) The Mighty LopenThe Flash

Edited by Amanuensis
Adding vote tally
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:
 
 

@asterion137 okay I thought so lol

But now I'm even more suspicious of you for voting Aman hehe asterion voting here for now...still gonna do analysis though.

You @STINK (get it) :lol:

Hey I was thinking of doing that.

Going over Striker posts now, then I'll do Aster's.


(3) AmanuensisYitziSeonid, asterion137

(2) The FlashThe Mighty Lopen_Stick_

(1) StrikerEZAmanuensis

(1) Yitzi2Paranoid King

(1) STINKEcthelion III

(1) randuirArraenae

(1) The Mighty LopenThe Flash

(1) asterion137BrightnessRadiant

Edited by Amanuensis
Adding vote tally
Posted

Currently travelling to an airport to fly to the US, to see El. I'll be over the Atlantic for much of this cycle.

Further thoughts to come, but to put paid to the suggestion that people are voting on a Aman merely because he has momentum, despite being a far more tenuous lynch than Randuir, Randuir.

@asterion137, feel free to change your vote back to Randuir, if Aman's lynch having more momentum was really your reason. You'd make it three on Rand to two on Aman, so you wouldn't reduce the likelihood of a lynch on one of the two of them, if you really don't mind which.

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