Steeldancer he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 41 minutes ago, _Stick_ said: Well he has been suspicious of BR for a while because...she wouldn't role claim, I think. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ She role claimed to me.
STINK he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 yeah elims dont have to gain trust of neutrals by role claiming lmao
asterion137 he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, Amanuensis said: I really hope you're evil, because it doesn't even seem like you're trying to consider Rand being good. You did see how neutrals swarmed Rand after the Pauper was attacked by the elims while being protected by the Child to get their permanent PM, right? If Rand was an elim, do you think the neutrals would swarm him immediately after making that deal? Surely that would result in the death of the Pauper, the Convict and the Child. I guess it is pretty suspicious that I sided with claimed neutrals right after the Elims helped them. Oh well I don't really have much hope about not getting lynched this cycle but if Rand really isn't an elim I'd be lynched next cycle for sure anyway. And since I still dont feel good about D1 lynch, Rand Yitzi I'll be gone for most of the rest of the day so if you guys do end up lynching me the only relevant information I have is that Straw didn't use metals last night (or was under a coppercloud) And since I don't want to double post... Yitzi2-prime suspect in the CFD lynch D1. BR- read 2/3 of the players elim which is kind of suspicious in and of itself but can't find much wrong with the rest of her actions Cloud- townread in part due to pms Aman- facilitated a lot of the D1 CFD but otherwise very valuable to the village for much of the same reason- good at facilitating productive discussions. Apparently his meta is different though. Wilson commented that it was probably the experience of the inter forum tourney which seems plausible but someone to look out for. STINK-Tunneling on BR. Whether he's wrong or right remains to be seen Rand- Still not entirely sure about him but for the forseeable future I think I'll hold off on him since Aman's logic seems pretty solid Flash- slight elim read. Seems to be encouraging contribution crusading by saying he thinks most actives are town despite the elims having used their action last night. Dalinar- tentative townread now that he's not lurking as hard. Elenion- lurking which doesn't seem to be like him. Slight elim lean Araris- Not very active but I hear that's his meta so no read. Seonid- Voted with a bunch of other claimed neutrals- neutral read Orlok- claimed neutral and acts like it. However it could be a ploy by the elims if they have a lurcher or if orlok himself is a thug. Most likely neutral. Crimsn- Was part of the CFD day 1 but the rest of her actions give me a townread from her. Arinian- Hasn't done much since D1. Defended Rand D1 and is a bit suspicious of Lopen and Yitzi, which I agree with so townlead i guess. Edited June 30, 2017 by asterion137 mixed up crimsn and wilson
cloudjumper he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 Hm evidence does seem to be for village!rand. Still, asterion doesn't seem elim in pms and posts to me. If asterion is revealed to be village then that would change things quite a bit. Doubt asterion is elim, would vote someone else. As asterion pointed out, lynch turnaround did seem kind of sketchy, so I would vote on someone who voted on Jon D1 and is voting on Rand today, like Crimsn, as both lynches seem to me like they have some kind of tampering involved.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 7 hours ago, randuir said: ....Stop posting people! You're getting my post deleted! Anyway, I was going to talk about @StrikerEZ. He starts his first post with a claim of inexperience, but he then provides reasonable advice for the various allomantic roles. He also says the following about Jondesu: Which means he's apparently experienced enough to recognize an inherent bias against Jondesu. This makes me wonder whether he only included that first line to use as a shield in case any of his advice was perceived as bad, which is more an elim thing to do in my opinion. Okay, I'm just catching up with this, so I'm quoting this right now and I'll answer it fully once I get to the most recent posts. (Hopefully it saves my progress on the post). As for my advice for the Allomantic roles, that's because I'd already had experience with them in my first game (LG34). I've only finished one game so far, and I'm currently in two games right now. If you call that experienced, then fine. But the reason I felt that way about Jon was because during LG34 I felt slightly suspicious of him until I died in that game. And my suspicions turned out to be right. When this game started, I got the same feeling from him that had made me feel suspicious of him in LG34, though now I'm thinking that's just part of his meta (as I've seen it called). Okay, my iPad glitched out, so I lost part of your post. I'm responding to the part where you talked about how you wished I'd explain why I thought Straw and STINK were bad lynch choices: Okay, I thought STINK was a bad idea for a lynch because I've come to trust him due to certain things that we talked about in PMs. As for Straw, I felt it was odd that he made so many PMs, but I didn't feel it was elim indicative, but possibly neutral (though now I'm not as sure, especially with everything that has happened this day turn so far). Quote His only post during the night is him stating that he didn't like the Jondesu lynch. he also makes his first reference to his big analysis post. Overall, this post is NAI, but I do find it odd that about 3 days later we still haven't seen much of this post he mentioned, epsecially since he seemed to think that he could have finished it before the end of D1 if he didn't need sleep. Well, okay, I don't really have any excuses for not doing that post yet. I've just been lazy and haven't gotten around to doing it. Quote In D2 he responds to Aman's prompt to provide his thoughts on a number of players. His suspicion of Straw is reasonable, but he doesn't really bring any new insights to the table (NAI), He skips over stick and Yitzi, and says that he'll treat them alter in his ellusive big post. However, his write-up on me strike me as odd: Based on what he states here, I'd have expected him to classify me as Neutral or Neutral/slightly elim. This makes me wonder whether he was trying to mollify Aman by rating me more positive than I should be based on his explanation. And yes, I know I'm complaining about someone saying he thinks I'm probably not evil, but the rating just doesn't seem to match his explanation. Overall, I'm getting a slight Elim vibe from Striker. Okay, as for my rating of you, I guess I phrased it wrong. I felt basically neutral about you, with a very, very slight lean towards village. Lately, that lean seems to be a bit more towards village now, though I still feel a little neutral about you. Not necessarily that you are a neutral role, just that I'm not sure whether you're village or elim. Though, like I said, I'm leaning more village as of now. The main reason now is because of what appears to be a neutral bandwagon against you, and the reasoning that I saw earlier while I was catching up that the neutrals worked with the elims to get Orlok attacked for the PMs and all that (sorry, I can't remember who posted that). And I'm sorry that I give you an elim vibe, though I do understand why you have it. I do know that the lack of my elusive suspicions post does seem very fishy. Honestly, it's just been because of laziness on my part. EDIT: Also, I'm still kind of confused on why everyone seems to want to lynch Asterion. Could someone explain that better? I kind of get the ideas from your post, Rand, but I'm not quite sure why that's so alignment indicative. Edited June 29, 2017 by StrikerEZ
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 @Crimsn-Wolf would you like to explain your PM to me? It confused me greatly. I think you're accusing me of being Elim, but I'm honestly not sure.
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: EDIT: Also, I'm still kind of confused on why everyone seems to want to lynch Asterion. Could someone explain that better? I kind of get the ideas from your post, Rand, but I'm not quite sure why that's so alignment indicative. It's not exactly alignment indicative. I think I explained the theory behind "negative space hunting," which consists of narrowing down the players who are not demonstrating significant tells for either alignment, which generally means they're an eliminator who is comfortable with the state of the game and not interested in getting involved. As we can each only control our own participation, it's each villager's responsibility to talk things out and form opinions on each other. For those lacking input, it's up to the rest of us to encourage them to do so, which generally is more revealing of their perspective when adequate pressure is applied (the lynch). What this does is show who's genuinely trying to solve the game, and who already knows the answers and is just putting on an act of solving. The way to differentiate the two ultimately boils down to tone, but seeing their observations of other players, as well as their votes, gives us a slew of interactions to later analyze when the player in question is revealed good or evil. Everyone on that list I posted in the beginning of the game are players who I have not seen enough town tells to determine they can probably be good. I have actually narrowed it down a little due to conversations that have taken place this turn, but I'll save that discussion for the night, since it's not very relevant to the lynch. I'm about 90% sure that Yitzi is evil. There's a potential for him to be a villager, I won't deny that, but a few posts of his have cemented the idea that he's an eliminator for me, and I doubt I'll ever budge from that, which means it's essentially a tunnel for me. Which is why I've been trying to ask a lot of players to give me their thoughts on him before I push his lynch any further. If the eliminators realize he's going to die, they can just bus him to muddle up our reads so far. That is why I pushed yourself and Aster today. I wanted to see your opinions on Yitzi when he wasn't under threat, because if either of you are allies, you might come to his defense, or in Aster's case, vote repeatedly for two players I personally know to be town. I might as well reveal this now, because there's very little chance of me living through the night anyway. I am the Scavenger, a town only role. I wanted to avoid saying this because none of us want a mayor running around here, but my life is guaranteed to end soon, either via the eliminator kill or me attempting to get the Ringleader charges of steel. The Ringleader has steel tonight, and they will be using it. We are in contact together thanks to the Neutrals, so they have been aware of both of our identities since day one. After I die the Ringleader is no longer a Coinshot, since they'll be unable to get any more charges, but they are a town only role, which means the eliminators will probably want to kill them sooner rather than later. With that in mind, neither of us plan on revealing their identity to anyone but the Neutrals. So for those of you like Seonid having concerns about my alignment, don't fret. It's impossible for me to be evil, and my days are up anyway. There is a chance Aster isn't evil. I honestly thought he could be town from reading the first day alone, but his lack of opinions on Yitzi until he was put in the vote lead, plus his voting on me and Rand, who I think between my arguments yesterday and the neutral's wagon on him proves his innocence, makes me believe they've been force into a situation where they have no choice but to vote for the other and hopefully get credit for lynching an eliminator so we leave them alone in the days to come. I think that just about covers everything I want to share. Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis 1
Arraenae Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 1 hour ago, asterion137 said: Aman- facilitated a lot of the D1 CFD but otherwise very valuable to the village for much of the same reason- good at facilitating productive discussions. Apparently his meta is different though. Wilson commented that it was probably the experience of the inter forum tourney which seems plausible but someone to look out for. Bolded text is for emphasis. Rand. Asterion,, where did someone day that Aman's meta is different from here? I know you said you'd be gone, but I'm curious how a new player would know about that. If anyone else can point to a post where someone commented about Aman's normal playstyle, that would also be appreciated.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 @Amanuensis Wow...that was actually very detailed. Kudos to you. I'll still (hopefully) make my suspicions post later, but I'll go ahead and vote Asterion for now.
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Arraenae said: Bolded text is for emphasis. Rand. Asterion,, where did someone day that Aman's meta is different from here? I know you said you'd be gone, but I'm curious how a new player would know about that. If anyone else can point to a post where someone commented about Aman's normal playstyle, that would also be appreciated. Wilson and I had a discussion around halfway through D1 about how observing (and playing, in my case) this year's Mafia Championship has impacted quite a few players. Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis
Arraenae Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Wilson and I had a discussion around halfway through D1 about how observing (and playing, in my case) this year's Mafia Championship has impacted quite a few players. Did that specifically say that your playstyle changed, though?
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Arraenae said: Did that specifically say that your playstyle changed, though? It did, yes. You'll notice I haven't done a single wall post this game, for example, and that my post count has probably doubled due to me attempting more "stream of conscious" and "real-time interacton" style play. 1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said: @Amanuensis Wow...that was actually very detailed. Kudos to you. I'll still (hopefully) make my suspicions post later, but I'll go ahead and vote Asterion for now. I think it's probably best to lynch Yitzi today, having said all of this. I've revealed my trump card, which means that if I'm right about him, anything we could learn from this point forward is not going to help too much. @BrightnessRadiant, @randuir, @TheMightyLopen, @Straw, @Arraenae, @StrikerEZ: would you be willing to vote for Yitzi over Aster? Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis
Arraenae Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 Alright, fair enough. And here I thought I'd caught something. Asterion. Yitzi.
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 Aman, I've trusted you for a while now. I think your analysis seems thorough and illuminating, and so yitzi . Also got ninjad here.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 Yeah, I'll go ahead and change my vote, I guess. Asterion Yitzi
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 8 hours ago, randuir said: This at first seemed to be a not-so-subtle insinuation that I am an elim, but she then later listed me as among her village reads. Could you explain this post a bit more, brightness? Haha I was not referring to you at all unless you're an elim I was referencing my post from last cycle where I told the elims to stop hiding from the neutrals cuz they were getting annoyed and saddened lol (a neutral asked me to tell the elims that haha) So then when they apparently helped the Thief's child meet her win con, I said they were making amends. So yep...and it's even more apparent that they had a deal with all of the neutrals voting for someone who I believe to be village. Okay wow...I just caught up on this thread and now I know how the poor folks felt who got behind Day 1 lol. @Amanuensis I'd switch to Yitzi cuz he's also on my suspicions list...but I'm still suspicious of asterion as well. I'm gonna go do analysis on both players after posting this. @STINK I'd also love to see the elim doc lolz...and why are you voting on me...I don't even know why I'm responding to you still, you little hilarious troll
asterion137 he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Arraenae said: Bolded text is for emphasis. Rand. Asterion,, where did someone day that Aman's meta is different from here? I know you said you'd be gone, but I'm curious how a new player would know about that. If anyone else can point to a post where someone commented about Aman's normal playstyle, that would also be appreciated. edit:oops lol someone already did this Edited June 29, 2017 by asterion137
Stick. she/her Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) Making my own vote tally *grumble grumble (5) asterion137: randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, Yitzi2, Straw, (3) randuir: OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf (8) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, Arinian, Dalinar Kholin, Asterion, Arraenae, The Flash, Striker, BrightnessRadiant, (1) The Flash: _Stick_, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) BRIGHTNESSRADIANT: STINK (1) CRIMSN: cloudjumper, I hope this is right. [Probably isnt.] Just looked at all of Yitzi's posts aksxdaknlvskj. So tired. Okay. I dont think I need to summarise and give my reads all of them here at this point. I'm fine with us lynching either of Aster or Yitzi. Though Yitzi is leading the lynch, so...Flash [I'll be back later ] Yitzi Edited June 29, 2017 by _Stick_ Im gr8 at counting usernames
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) 43 minutes ago, _Stick_ said: Vote tally? (9) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, Arinian, Dalinar Kholin, asterion137, Arraenae, The Flash, StrikerEZ, BrightnessRadiant, _Stick_ (5) asterion137: randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, Yitzi2, Straw, (3) randuir: OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) BrightnessRadiant: STINK, (1) Crimsn-Wolf: cloudjumper, 48 minutes ago, Arraenae said: Alright, fair enough. And here I thought I'd caught something. Asterion. Yitzi. You probably did. I think that Aster has a very good chance of being evil, if I'm right about Yitzi. Straw might even be, given Yitzi's soft and indirect defense of him early on in D1, on top of him voting for the Randwagon to counter it. They're probably not all three evil together, given that Aster did vote for Straw when the Randwagon got ahead, but it is something to consider. With both Yitzi and Straw voting for Aster right now, it's hard to tell. It could be a bus, but we shouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of Aster being good. That's basically why Yitzi is my preferred lynch. If people want, I can point out the posts Yitzi has made that, to me, absolutely prove he's an eliminator, but I would probably rather see people go over what he's said and see if they can find them on their own. Like I said, I really don't want to become a mayor and direct people, especially since I'm wrong just as often as I am right, especially early on in the game (the first day of my Championship Game, I defended two different eliminators from attacks by villagers). The best thing, in my opinion, any player can do is follow their own heart and thought processes. It's rare to learn anything when you just follow the crowd, both as the individual and for the observers. Ninja'd by Stick doing her own tally Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 Asterion- Quote 2 pm's per person seems a little excessive. The "group pm" especially would seem (to a more suspicious person than me) like an attempt to listen in on others'... 1. Why to a more suspicious person than you if you're actually pointing it out and seem suspicious lol @asterion137(for lack of understanding this statement -neutral read lol) 2. Says the lynches on Straw and Stink don't seem justifiable unless there's no better target (kinda true and something a villager might actually say instead of an elim who could've just run with the idea that they were pm eavesdropping so slight village read for this) 3. Pointed out good reasons why elim!Rand wouldn't have taken such risky moves on cycle 1 (I agree and village read for this)...hey what's happening I know he seemed suspicious somewhere lol (Just Ninja'd by asterion while writing this....can you sense the analysis eye haha) 4. Voted on Straw to prevent the Randuir lynch (leaning slightly village for this because I was also trying to save Rand later on that cycle) 5. Reiterates the idea that elim!Rand showing up evil if lynched after alienating the neutrals would be a bad plan were he evil (truth be told brother lol...leaning village still) 6. Says that the Jon lynch didn't lead to much info (true but sometimes there are other goals with the lynch besides info gathering...like actually catching an elim . I get what you're saying about lack of info tho...I actually gave my reasons for lynching him the next cycle tho...so still some info. Not sure the others who voted him have given much of a reason why they did so? Anyways..NAI for this post because either alignment could have posted this for either spreading paranoia or actual disappointment.) 7. Trying to find my alignment for like 4 posts...you'll never crack the code! But since I probably failed at creating it...neither will Ecth hahaha (NAI cuz I'd try to crack a secret code regardless of alignment cuz it's fun! Anyone who wasn't curious is boring lol jk ) or they knew my alignment already haha 8. Okay here comes the suspicion finally lol. He voted Rand after sounding so convinced on cycle 1 that he was innocent...um why for you do this? (You shouldn't listen to Yitzi lol) -elim read Ninja'd by Stick and Aman just now lol 9. If it was the last second turn around that made you suspicious than shouldn't you be voting Yitzi or Straw as possible a for that same reasoning? Especially since you seemed to have a village read on both Rand, and Aman(who defended him). -elim read 10. Oooooo and then cane the BIG suspicion lol...he voted Aman. (I'm leaving that by itself cuz I think everyone knows my sentiments on that lol)- elim read 11. Aaaaaaand then back to Rand again (*sigh...elim read) 12. Then votes Yitzi (who was going down anyways lol -elim read) Okay I'm done...I'll do Yitzi next
Amanuensis he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 (edited) I really do think that Aster's D1 progression was good. It's possible that, given Rand was in the lead before Jon accumulated votes, that he decided Rand was probably evil, and given my hard defense of him, that lynching either of us would solve that concern. I just don't like the fact he was dodging my questions about Yitzi, which could be explained as him just not thinking too much about him up until that point, but also be because he wanted to avoid looking at a teammate. Ultimately, even counting today's actions, I think Aster could go either way. Seonid, who I believe is town (partly due to tone, partly due to him being one of few players to vote on Yitzi before the general consensus decided it was a good idea) voted on me due to paranoia, so I won't discount a similar progression for Aster. Plus there's also the fact I could be completely wrong about Yitzi, which throws this entire theory out of the loop, which is why it's probably best to lynch Yitzi first and reexamine things from there. Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I really do think that Aster's D1 progression was good. It's possible that, given Rand was in the lead before Jon accumulated votes, that he decided Rand was probably evil, and given my hard defense of him, that lynching either of us would solve that concern. I just don't like the fact he was dodging my questions about Yitzi, which could be explained as him just not thinking too much about him up until that point, but also be because he wanted to avoid looking at a teammate. Ultimately, Aster could go either way, I think. Even Seonid, who I believe is town (partly due to tone, partly due to him being one of few players to vote on Yitzi before the general consensus decided it was a good idea) voted on me due to paranoia, so I won't discount a similar progression for Aster. Plus there's also the fact I could be completely wrong about Yitzi, which throws this entire theory out of the loop anyway, which is why I'd prefer to test him first. Yeah it's true that his day one posts seemed very village so I think voting Yitzi first is a good call rn.
Seonid he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 I find those arguments convincing. I'll jump on the Yitzi wagon
asterion137 he/him Posted June 29, 2017 Posted June 29, 2017 25 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said: Asterion- 1. Why to a more suspicious person than you if you're actually pointing it out and seem suspicious lol @asterion137(for lack of understanding this statement -neutral read lol) 2. Says the lynches on Straw and Stink don't seem justifiable unless there's no better target (kinda true and something a villager might actually say instead of an elim who could've just run with the idea that they were pm eavesdropping so slight village read for this) 3. Pointed out good reasons why elim!Rand wouldn't have taken such risky moves on cycle 1 (I agree and village read for this)...hey what's happening I know he seemed suspicious somewhere lol (Just Ninja'd by asterion while writing this....can you sense the analysis eye haha) 4. Voted on Straw to prevent the Randuir lynch (leaning slightly village for this because I was also trying to save Rand later on that cycle) 5. Reiterates the idea that elim!Rand showing up evil if lynched after alienating the neutrals would be a bad plan were he evil (truth be told brother lol...leaning village still) 6. Says that the Jon lynch didn't lead to much info (true but sometimes there are other goals with the lynch besides info gathering...like actually catching an elim . I get what you're saying about lack of info tho...I actually gave my reasons for lynching him the next cycle tho...so still some info. Not sure the others who voted him have given much of a reason why they did so? Anyways..NAI for this post because either alignment could have posted this for either spreading paranoia or actual disappointment.) 7. Trying to find my alignment for like 4 posts...you'll never crack the code! But since I probably failed at creating it...neither will Ecth hahaha (NAI cuz I'd try to crack a secret code regardless of alignment cuz it's fun! Anyone who wasn't curious is boring lol jk ) or they knew my alignment already haha 8. Okay here comes the suspicion finally lol. He voted Rand after sounding so convinced on cycle 1 that he was innocent...um why for you do this? (You shouldn't listen to Yitzi lol) -elim read Ninja'd by Stick and Aman just now lol 9. If it was the last second turn around that made you suspicious than shouldn't you be voting Yitzi or Straw as possible a for that same reasoning? Especially since you seemed to have a village read on both Rand, and Aman(who defended him). -elim read 10. Oooooo and then cane the BIG suspicion lol...he voted Aman. (I'm leaving that by itself cuz I think everyone knows my sentiments on that lol)- elim read 11. Aaaaaaand then back to Rand again (*sigh...elim read) 12. Then votes Yitzi (who was going down anyways lol -elim read) Okay I'm done...I'll do Yitzi next I was explaining to straw why group pms were more suspicious in my first post plus i wanted to justify not voting even though i was pointing out a line if reasoning. I'd also like to point out that I voted on yitzi when there were only 3 votes on him so I wouldnt say I voted him when I knew he was going down anyway
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