Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

You think it's the neutrals' favor to the elim in exchange for targeting Orlok?

Bing bing.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm surprised you haven't figured this out yet. I expected most players to not catch on, but it should be pretty obvious.

Well I figured there was an actual reason, but I thought I'd ask rather than try to think through it.

Um. They made a deal with the eliminators, to waste our Day? Rand is an eliminator, and because they know we won't want them to control the lynch, we'll save him, incriminating ourselves and making us think they made a deal with the eliminators to kill Rand? They want to kill Rand because he tried to lynch Joe? Honestly, I'm not sure if any of those are very likely.

Okay, ninja'd. I did think of that, as proven above, but it seemed too obvious... XD

[DeTess she/her]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Quote

You think it's the neutrals' favor to the elim in exchange for targeting Orlok?

Bing bing.

Ooh, interesting. I had considered that, but decided I was being too paranoid. So if whoever gets lynched doesn't do that with at least a 4 vote lead(not counting Neutral votes), I'm probably going to get hammered. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Edited June 29, 2017 by randuir

[STINK he/him]

aman goes from randuir is evil back to village back to evil back to village

boy what u taking i want some

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

 

 

 

aman goes from randuir is evil back to village back to evil back to village

boy what u taking i want some

I haven't once said Rand was evil. I've been vouching for him the entire game.

12 minutes ago, randuir said:

 

 

 

Ooh, interesting. I had considered that, but decided I was being too paranoid. So if whoever gets lynched doesn't do that with at least a 4 vote lead(not counting Neutral votes), I'm probably going to get hammered. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

It's an additional reason why I'm suspicious of Asterion's initial vote on you.

---

(4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, 

(3) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, 

(2) Amanuensis: Seonid, asterion137, 

(2) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, Arinian, 

(1) The Flash: _Stick_, 

(1) StrikerEZ: Amanuensis, 

(1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, 

(1) STINK: Ecthelion III, 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

23 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

You think it's the neutrals' favor to the elim in exchange for targeting Orlok?

I thought of this when orlok said

On 6/28/2017 at 2:15 PM, OrlokTsubodai said:

As is obvious, I was attacked last night. You'll all recall that I asked for a PM from an eliminator, which I received, and have come to a reasonable and very limited agreement with them in return for an attack this cycle.

A few votes in their favour seemed to be the only way I could think of that the neutrals could use to help the elims. Or speaking in favour of them but that wouldnt carry much weight.

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Seonid, I believe you're town. I would very much appreciate you removing your vote on me. @Arraenae, same thing but with Rand.

@randuir, we may need more votes than 4. There's 6 neutrals total plus the eliminators. In interest of that: Striker, Asterion.

---

(4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, 

(4) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, 

(2) Amanuensis: Seonid, asterion137, 

(2) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, Arinian, 

(1) The Flash: _Stick_,

(1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, 

(1) STINK: Ecthelion III, 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[STINK he/him]

tfw aman refuses to count your vote

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, STINK said:

tfw aman refuses to count your vote

Whoops.

(4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, 

(4) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, 

(2) Amanuensis: Seonid, asterion137, 

(2) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, Arinian, 

(1) The Flash: _Stick_,

(1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, 

(1) STINK: Ecthelion III, 

(1) Straw: STINK, 

[Yitzi2]

Edit: Erroneous post on my part.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Arinian]

53 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

There's different strategies, but yes, that tends to be the norm. But there's a lot of other players guilty of that and worse. Like I said, Yitzi and Aster did the same thing, essentially. I just want to see you think about more players is all, really. You don't know what I do about Lopen that makes it 75% likely that he's town, so it's possible that I'm biased. I don't really think you're an elim trying to get him mislynched, since there's a few things you've said this game that make me lean in the direction of town. I just think you're tunneling on a pretty valuable player for us, and I'd like to resolve that tunnel without having to resort to my trump card.

Okay, I think I can believe you about your trump card. Lopen. Yitzi (for now, will go check Aster's posts)

[Yitzi2]

While I would have previously voted for Rand over asterion, the neutral bandwagon on Rand is a bit worrying.  Asterion.

[Stick. she/her]

So is everyone voting on Aster now? I suppose it does make the most sense, and seems more promising than lynching Flash. However, I'm not taking my vote off him [soz] unless we need more votes on Aster at EoD. 

21 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

we may need more votes than 4. There's 6 neutrals total plus the eliminators. In interest of that: Striker, Asterion.

Since it's kinda obvious now I'd expect the elims to hop on the bandwagon too, so...yeah we shouldnt need my vote EoD, but we'll see.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Personally I don't think the Aster lynch should be set in stone yet, we still got 20 hours to discuss this. I feel like Aster could go either way, although I really don't understand his actions today from a villager perspective. I'm hoping he gets on soon because if he is town, lynching him isn't much better than letting Rand get lynched.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Dalinar Kholin]

Yitzi. Strong gut read, I don't really like Aman lynch, he's seemed to be very helpful. Sure, it could be an elim playing people, but getting people to be more active is generally accepted to be beneficial for the village. I read Flash village too, he seemed honest confusion and analysis. Lopen I don't have a hard read on, but leaning slightly village. He could be doing fluffier posts to stay under the radar, so I'll keep an eye on him as the game moves on. I want another option for this lynch to keep the discussion going. I'll look back at what Yitzi has said to defend my post or to change it if my read changes.

Also the Asterion lynch, can people please explain more? 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Dalinar Kholin
Forgot something

[DeTess she/her]

6 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Also the Asterion lynch, can people please explain more? 

Did you read my post on him? If you have any questions or concerns, I can try to address them, but I can't really add much more than that to it.

[Dalinar Kholin]

2 hours ago, randuir said:

Alright, on to @asterion137. His first two posts of the first day stand out to me in a bad way:

This feels to me like he's trying to generate suspicion of Straw and/or STINK without actually having to commit himself. The first post gives me that vibe more than the second one (without context, I'd say the second post was NAI).

His arguments after that are for the most part good arguments about why I'm probably not an elim, and if he wasn't contradicting himself so badly in D2, I'd consider him village based on this.

He only posts once during the night, despite it being 48 hours long. He comments that he doesn't like the Jondesu swing at all. In and of itself I'd say this is NAI, but it's also a good set-up for his swing on me and Aman this cycle.

Anyway, he uses his first 4 posts this cycle to try to figure out how to crack the code BR put in the thread, despite it not being meant for him. This could both be a curious villager or an elim action though, so it's NAI.

His decision to start voting one me seems really strange though. He seemed rather convinced that I was in fact village during D1, and I don't think I've said or done anything that would explain a sudden change of heart since then (If I had, asterion should be bringing that up). His reasoning is that he doesn't like how people voted to try and save me (and several others, I might add), but he's ignoring the fact that he justified his vote on Straw with pretty much the same reason:

If I was an elim, and the elim team was willing to go to such extreme lengths to try and save me, Asterion should honestly be one of the main suspects.

So overall, I'd been getting a net village vibe from him D1, and a definite elim vibe D2. There's also something else I've noticed:

Unlike Striker, Asterion also hasn't reacted to Aman's request for reads on a number of people. From striker I'm getting the impression that he is (at least trying to) keep notes and have opinions on people, while Asterion is playing far more reactively. Though a reactive play-style is NAI, most people that play that way do appear to have opinions on people other than the ones currently being considered for the lynch, and I'm really not getting that impression from Asterion. This suggests to me that he might be an elim that's just going with the flow, which elims, unlike villagers, can afford to do as long as none of their people are being voted on

So I'm going to vote on Asterion137 now. However, @StrikerEZ, I'd really like to see that big post you've been talking about, preferably before the start of the next day cycle if you can manage that. If you don't have time for everyone, just talking about a couple more people should allay some concerns and suspicions I have about you.

I agree with his suspicions on Straw (not on stink, but that's merely because of his playstyle). How does him not liking swings set him up for a swing?

I'd like a response from Asterion on the flip. I respect his argument about the vote switch, even if I disagree that it means one should vote for you.

I haven't reacted to the suggestions by Aman either, does that indicate I am an elim playing with the flow? Because that's what an elim would do, isn't that exactly what an elim would want not to do? (of course, I'm biased there, but thats more opinion). Sure, Asterion, could be an elim, but I don't see strong evidence to support it.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Re: Asterion. My primary concerns with him are the fact that he's voted for two people today he said he believes are Town, just because one defended the other (Rand and I), in addition to him not commenting on any player but us two and Straw/Stink so far. If he could help me understand his perspective better / opinions of more players, then I might retract in favor of Yitzi, since Yitzi was my preferred lynch D1 anyway. 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[STINK he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

since Yitzi was my preferred lynch D1 anyway. 

 ilovelynchingvillagerstoo

[DeTess she/her]

4 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I agree with his suspicions on Straw (not on stink, but that's merely because of his playstyle). How does him not liking swings set him up for a swing?

Basically, he'd been in the same camp as Aman for all of D1, and his one post in the Night cycle was him distancing himself from that occurence, which could have been to allow Elim!Asterion to not seem too odd when he started voting on me and Aman. It's hardly my strongest piece of evidence, and even if Asterion is an elim, this might not have been premeditated. still, it stood out to me.

4 minutes ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

I haven't reacted to the suggestions by Aman either, does that indicate I am an elim playing with the flow? Because that's what an elim would do, isn't that exactly what an elim would want not to do? (of course, I'm biased there, but thats more opinion). Sure, Asterion, could be an elim, but I don't see strong evidence to support it.

You haven't made 8 posts this cycle, so I don't find it odd that you haven't responded to Aman yet. I'm not saying that everyone that just goes with the flow is an elim, but it is something an elim might do because it's easier to not slip up if you aren't continually trying to start lynches and coming up with opinions on people that most people in the thread aren't even considering. Regarding the comparison between Asterion and you, if you'd made as many posts as Asterion, and given as few opinions on non-target-of-the-moment people, I would be suspicious of you too, but for better or worse, that's not the case.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, STINK said:

 ilovelynchingvillagerstoo

Oh. Is that why you're voting Straw? :Thonk:

Speaking of. @Straw where you at?

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Seonid he/him]

Aman

I'm less sanguine than the rest of the village about you, it seems,  but I'm willing to extend a little bit of trust. You have been contributing a lot, and that's very valuable to us. And if you're good,  I'd rather not leave you in danger of a neutral hammer.

Also meta comment: this game marks a significant increase in gameplay level for this site. I like it, but I'm not sure I can keep up. It's not just the amount of posting, it's a huge jump in terms of player skill too. I feel way our of my depth atm.

Maybe I'm just self conscious -  I've started playing mafia on another forum too, and the reaction was...less than friendly,  shall we say.

Hope y'all will forgive the fact that I'm not playing well. I'd like to still fit in in this community.

[Dalinar Kholin]

10 minutes ago, randuir said:

Basically, he'd been in the same camp as Aman for all of D1, and his one post in the Night cycle was him distancing himself from that occurence, which could have been to allow Elim!Asterion to not seem too odd when he started voting on me and Aman. It's hardly my strongest piece of evidence, and even if Asterion is an elim, this might not have been premeditated. still, it stood out to me.

You haven't made 8 posts this cycle, so I don't find it odd that you haven't responded to Aman yet. I'm not saying that everyone that just goes with the flow is an elim, but it is something an elim might do because it's easier to not slip up if you aren't continually trying to start lynches and coming up with opinions on people that most people in the thread aren't even considering. Regarding the comparison between Asterion and you, if you'd made as many posts as Asterion, and given as few opinions on non-target-of-the-moment people, I would be suspicious of you too, but for better or worse, that's not the case.

 

Fair responses. Thank you Aman for responding succintly as well. I'll wait and see what  @asterion137  has to say.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Seonid said:

 

Aman

I'm less sanguine than the rest of the village about you, it seems,  but I'm willing to extend a little bit of trust. You have been contributing a lot, and that's very valuable to us. And if you're good,  I'd rather not leave you in danger of a neutral hammer.

Also meta comment: this game marks a significant increase in gameplay level for this site. I like it, but I'm not sure I can keep up. It's not just the amount of posting, it's a huge jump in terms of player skill too. I feel way our of my depth atm.

Maybe I'm just self conscious -  I've started playing mafia on another forum too, and the reaction was...less than friendly,  shall we say.

Hope y'all will forgive the fact that I'm not playing well. I'd like to still fit in in this community.

I think you're doing fine. I feel pretty good about you based on tone, it's just I think you're letting paranoia rule too much of your opinion at this state of the game. If Rand and I were still alive in mid-game while lower-priority players were picked off, your concerns would have a lot more merit, but right now it's dangerous. PM me tonight and I can give you information that will alleviate your worries.

[Straw he/him]

I've been reading other people's posts, and it seems like Asterion137 is an Eliminator.