Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@Ecthelion III

Spoiler

if you're worried about breaking the rules with that spoiler box you could always use some kind of other code word that you know I'd get  (we've had a bunch of convos and RP together.....I'm sure there's something you could reference lol)

I think Stink really is a neutral...he's just a joker wild card lol

As for my role:

Spoiler

bW3MXDc9EHTBU

The code word is our last name in that story you sent me.

@The Flash stink is just jealous cuz I wouldn't role claim to him hahahahahahahahahahahaha  (I was growing kind of suspicious of you but after your responses and explanations today I'm leaning more village for you...unfortunately we never got to work out all of our plan in the pm lol (maybe I can give you a coded message too lol)

@STINK you're crazy 

To everyone else....I will expand on my suspicions list I gave last night after I go eat food cuz I'm starved lol 

Edited June 28, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[little wilson she/her]

13 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

The key word is our last name in that story you sent me  lol here's the website to decode it...[redacted] (codes are fun! lol) @Haelbarde if this is against the rules please let me know!

Not Hael, but modhat on real fast. From the General Rules:

On 10/7/2016 at 11:25 PM, little wilson said:

Each player is subjected to only being able to use their own talents to determine alignment. For example, using outside sites and programs written by anyone other than yourself is forbidden. If a program you’re using does something that you cannot do yourself without the aid of the program, don’t use it. This is mostly in reference to codes and encryptions. If you can’t encrypt it by hand with paper, you can’t use a program to do it (though a program that speeds up the process is just fine, but only if you wrote it). You cannot share such a program that you wrote with other players for them to use.

So that site is most definitely against the SE rules.

Edited June 28, 2017 by little wilson

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Just now, little wilson said:

Not Hael, but modhat on real fast. From the General Rules:

So that site is most definitely against the SE rules.

Ack! Okay thank you! I delete it!

[little wilson she/her]

Just edit it out? The post is fine. And if he can solve the code without the site, the code is fine too, according to the rules (though Hael may have something more to say about this game in particular).

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@little wilson ok got it thanks! I guess I should've asked first...then posted oops

[little wilson she/her]

It's fine. In terms of rules-breakage with codes, this was really light.  Not a problem at all.

[Yitzi2]

Wilson, you might want to edit the link out of your reply, too.

[little wilson she/her]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

Wilson, you might want to edit the link out of your reply, too.

Heh. Good call.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@little wilson yay that's good to know  (I hate breaking rules) and that's not a joke lol

@Yitzi2 aw you're no fun lolol jk

Edited June 28, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Steeldancer he/him]

16 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Ecthelion III

  Reveal hidden contents

if you're worried about breaking the rules with that spoiler box you could always use some kind of other code word that you know I'd get  (we've had a bunch of convos and RP together.....I'm sure there's something you could reference lol)

I think Stink really is a neutral...he's just a joker wild card lol

As for my role:

  Reveal hidden contents

bW3MXDc9EHTBU

The code word is our last name in that story you sent me.

@The Flash stink is just jealous cuz I wouldn't role claim to him hahahahahahahahahahahaha  (I was growing kind of suspicious of you but after your responses and explanations today I'm leaning more village for you...unfortunately we never got to work out all of our plan in the pm lol (maybe I can give you a coded message too lol)

@STINK you're crazy 

To everyone else....I will expand on my suspicions list I gave last night after I go eat food cuz I'm starved lol 

Feel free. I'm good with codes. This will be fun

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

1 minute ago, The Flash said:

Feel free. I'm good with codes. This will be fun

I'll get on it after I eat...gotta feed my poor starving revolutionary self lol (not getting enough to eat at the barricade that's for sure haha)

[Arraenae]

I'm going to take a look at Lopen next. If all goes well, I should be able to do some network analysis of D1. It depends on if I can buy the right supplies, because I am not going to waste six or more sheets of paper just for one game.

[Yitzi2]

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh wow I'm alive. Cool.

• @The Flash
• @cloudjumper
• @asterion137
• @Paranoid King
• @StrikerEZ
• @Elenion
• @Araris Valerian
• @Ecthelion III
• @Drake Marshall
• @Yitzi2
• @Dalinar Kholin

These are players I'm either suspicious of or have absolutely no significant reads on. I would like them to be the focus of discussion today.

Same question for everyone on this list, as well as your thoughts on each other, please and thank you.

Ok, lengthy analysis incoming:

Flash: Asked me for clarification about a convoluted plan I suggested Joe might be pulling off.  Did a bit of RP, slightly overdone on the "I'm village" side of things.  Voted for Straw.  Night 1, FoS'd me for a fairly flimsy reason, though the results of the day1 vote may have made him a bit jumpy on that result (I know that it wasn't a bunch of elims arranging to save elim!me, but I can't really expect anyone else to).  Later, FoS'd Rand, so it's probably just the day1 vote.

Cloud: Made a few disorganized comments.  Suggested that if Rand is an elim, he doubts that Aman is...if they both are, Cloud probably is as well.  (I would say that so is Crimsn, but Crimsn claimed neutral and apparently told Joe her role; it's possible that she told Joe that she's really an elim, but that seems implausible.  It's worth revisiting if all neutrals are accounted for as not being Crimsn as well as Rand and Aman being elims, but that's as far as I'd go.  Crimsn also was a lot less emphatic about the "if Rand is, Aman isn't" statement than Cloud was.)

Asterion: Called out the eavesdropping potential of the group PMs; if STINK is an elim, this is a point for village!Asterion.  Also pointed out the flaw in the "Rand is an elim trying to turn the neutrals" theory.  Overall, he looks village-ish to me.

PK:  He started out with a post that seems way too suspicious to have come from an elim ("lovely X you have here...a shame..." is just too "classic mafioso" for someone who is all that self-conscious about being thought to be an elim).  His most recent post seems to have disregarded the possibility that Joe is dealing with both sides.

Striker: Suggested that the elims might want to take out the neutrals.  This seems a bit strange (elims don't need to take out neutrals to win), so I'd guess that either he's an elim who didn't suggest his idea to the other elims, or all the elims are inexperienced, or he's not an elim.  I'm getting a bit of a village read from his first post of day 2, but I never trust reads that don't have clear reasoning behind them.

Elenion: Did a quick vote due to (he claimed, at least) being busy and following STINK (who read village to him in PMs).  If STINK is an elim, he should be under suspicion as well.  Also defended Rand, but not as emphatically or knee-jerkily as Aman (see below), so I don't see that as a strong indicator of anything.

Araris: Posted once to copy someone else's vote (and the reason for it),   Then significantly later (after being asked), he gave more detail and challenged Rae and Elenion for switching to Straw rather than someone else.  The criticism doesn't seem very well-thought-out, and it looks to me like he's posting to avoid the lynch; whether that's an elim who doesn't want to help the village, or a villager with no ideas (either just because he has no ideas, or because he's too busy for a full analysis like this) who doesn't want a mislynch, I couldn't say.

Ecth: Accused STINK because

Drake: Pointed out that the elims wouldn't want to waste a kill on neutrals (of course, we saw that they did, but presumably that was as a deal involving the Thief's Child and therefore not a waste).  This is presumably a response to Striker, and may be a weak indication that he and Striker are not both elims.  He also suggested some things the elims could do (though at the expense of the neutrals); as an elim, he'd probably want to keep those secret if he was planning on actually doing them.  It could also be a basis for getting the village to lynch neutrals...actually, in light of his focus in the earlier post that the elim might claim convict in particular (not exactly the safest role to claim because it has two people who can refute it), he just (well, "just" in the sense of when I typed that; it's some time from there until I post this) became my top candidate for PO.  If so, I wonder whether his retraction was due to a PM from Joe, offering to let himself be lynched later on.  Called for lynching STINK in a clearly exaggerated manner and not-serious; if STINK turns out to be an elim, that will raise the question of whether this was a way of protecting STINK without being too obvious about it.  (i.e. it slightly increases the chance that both are elims, but without confirmation that STINK is, Drake still has the evidence in favor of him being non-elim, though my thoughts about the danger inherent in the PO remain in place; again, it's nothing personal, Drake.)

Dalinar: Pointed out that it's in the interest of the village for the neutrals not to roleclaim, in a way that implies why it is in the interest of the neutrals to roleclaim.  That seems a bit elim-ish to me.  On the other hand, he claimed to be "lurking", which is something an elim might be wary of doing.  Also wary of analyzing due to it getting him lynched; as someone with a few close calls in that regard, I can see why that would have an effect even on a village player (after all, any village player knows of only one situation that is unquestionably a mislynch, and wants to avoid it).

And as a bonus:

Aman: Clearly defending Randuir, to the point of instaposting about votes for him before even reading the reasoning for the vote, and others have pointed that out too.  It's a bit too blatant for me to want to say that it's because they're elim-buddies, and on top of that Rand voting for Joe doesn't really seem very elim-like (though Wilson pointed out that could be a ploy by Aman and Rand because they're both known to be so dangerous as elims; while we're all agreed that it's a huge tinfoil, I just don't see any other good reason for the intensity of the defense.  Alternatively, it's possible that elim!Rand didn't even consider the alienation factor and just voted Joe for some other reason, perhaps as an elim deal with the PO), but I can't really think of any other good reasons for that reaction.  Orlok also pointed out that Aman gave an argument that really would give the neutrals a reason to help the elims.  He (she?  I don't really know these things) told cloudjumper "I'm reading town on you" due to cloudjumper saying "if Rand is elim, Aman isn't" after Aman had admitted that he almost certainly was if Rand was...Aman.

(Aman also indicated significant suspicion of Jon, who turned out to be village, but those sort of mistakes happen often, especially early on, so it's not a major contributing factor in my vote.)

Edited June 28, 2017 by Yitzi2

[DeTess she/her]

11 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

Drake: Pointed out that the elims wouldn't want to waste a kill on neutrals (of course, we saw that they did, but presumably that was as a deal involving the Thief's Child and therefore not a waste).  This is presumably a response to Striker, and may be a weak indication that he and Striker are not both elims.  He also suggested some things the elims could do (though at the expense of the neutrals); as an elim, he'd probably want to keep those secret if he was planning on actually doing them.  It could also be a basis for getting the village to lynch neutrals...actually, in light of his focus in the earlier post that the elim might claim convict in particular (not exactly the safest role to claim because it has two people who can refute it), he just (well, "just" in the sense of when I typed that; it's some time from there until I post this) became my top candidate for PO.  If so, I wonder whether his retraction was due to a PM from Joe, offering to let himself be lynched later on.  Called for lynching STINK in a clearly exaggerated manner and not-serious; if STINK turns out to be an elim, that will raise the question of whether this was a way of protecting STINK without being too obvious about it.  (i.e. it slightly increases the chance that both are elims, but without confirmation that STINK is, Drake still has the evidence in favor of him being non-elim, though my thoughts about the danger inherent in the PO remain in place; again, it's nothing personal, Drake.)

On mobile right now, so can't look it up, but I remember Drake mentioning that his vote on Joe came after agreeing with Joe he'd do so to try to draw out the PO. Joe confirmed this iirc.

11 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

 

Aman: Clearly defending Randuir, to the point of instaposting about votes for him before even reading the reasoning for the vote, and others have pointed that out too.  It's a bit too blatant for me to want to say that it's because they're elim-buddies, and on top of that Rand voting for Joe doesn't really seem very elim-like (though Wilson pointed out that could be a ploy by Aman and Rand because they're both known to be so dangerous as elims; while we're all agreed that it's a huge tinfoil, I just don't see any other good reason for the intensity of the defense.  Alternatively, it's possible that elim!Rand didn't even consider the alienation factor and just voted Joe for some other reason, perhaps as an elim deal with the PO), but I can't really think of any other good reasons for that reaction.  Orlok also pointed out that Aman gave an argument that really would give the neutrals a reason to help the elims.  He (she?  I don't really know these things) told cloudjumper "I'm reading town on you" due to cloudjumper saying "if Rand is elim, Aman isn't" after Aman had admitted that he almost certainly was if Rand was...Aman.

(Aman also indicated significant suspicion of Jon, who turned out to be village, but those sort of mistakes happen often, especially early on, so it's not a major contributing factor in my vote.)

I believe I was the one that made the argument Orlok pointed out not Aman, but again, please double-check this if you're not on mobile.

[Arraenae]

@Yitzi2, what do you mean by FoS?

[little wilson she/her]

Finger of Suspicion

[Yitzi2]

2 minutes ago, randuir said:

On mobile right now, so can't look it up, but I remember Drake mentioning that his vote on Joe came after agreeing with Joe he'd do so to try to draw out the PO. Joe confirmed this iirc.

I believe I was the one that made the argument Orlok pointed out not Aman, but again, please double-check this if you're not on mobile.

1. I believe he did, and I simply didn't put 2 and 2 together.  The mention of Convict in particular in his first (IIRC) post is still suspicious, but I no longer think he is PO.

2. You are correct.  I got confused because Orlok responded to Aman when pointing it out.  Nevertheless, due to the intensity of Aman's reaction to the proposed lynch of you and the response to cloudjumper, I will be keeping my vote on Aman, at least for now.

[Arraenae]

30 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Finger of Suspicion

What's that?

@Yitzi2, I don't get why you're voting on Aman. As far as I can tell, you're saying this:

1. Aman and Rand probably aren't elim buddies.

2. Something to do with Randuir's possible motivations on voting for Joe, if he was an elim?

3. Aman made an argument about why Neutrals should help elims. However, Randuir says that he made that argument, not Aman.

4. Aman had a village read on Cloud, who said something that contradicted with what Aman had said.

5. Aman voted on Jon, who was village. You yourself say that it's NAI this early in the game.

Nothing there makes a strong (or even weak) case for lynching Aman. I really, really don't get your reasoning.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Arraenae
Added a mention and fixed a spelling error

[little wilson she/her]

12 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

What's that?

It's like pointing at someone and saying "I'm suspicious of you."

[Stick. she/her]

Flash's N1 posts:

1) Says he'll post soon

2) Apologises for for not answering Aman's question last turn. Says he'll post analysis  soon.

3) Expresses annoyance at number of PMs. Says he'll post analysis soon.

4) Finally posts 'the post' Elim reads [gut or otherwise] were: asterion, Drake, Yitzi, and Rae. Village [mild and strong, both]: PK, Len, BR, Arin, Wilson, Seonid, Crimsn, Stick, Lopen and Aman.The rest are either not-sure-of, or nuetrals. Just taking note of this.

5) Questions how Yitzi knows that elims tend to be scared of Aman.

6) Comment about drop bears.

7) Accepts Yitzi's explanation of point in post 5. Says he'll be keeping an eye on him anyway.

8) Says gut reads are a village thing. Hard to fake for elims.

9) Has a better idea of whats going on. 

10) Looks forward to hearing from Dalinar.

11) OOG things

12) OOG things

13) Says that it's a possibility that Rand wanted us to think that antagonizing the neutrals to swing elim is a move too risky for an elim to make.

So...all of these posts are pretty much NAI Except for post 4. 

@The Flash As for the PM thing you talked about...BR's last post last turn said

Quote

1. Jay (The Flash) - started out fine....now seeming slightly evil feeling growing in my gut lol (he seems a little off in our pm)

so...yeah. I think I'll keep my vote on you for now.

And huh @Yitzi2. I'm not sure what to think of that vote. Anyway, I'm signing off for today, so I'll talk about your post tomorrow.

[asterion137 he/him]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Not Hael, but modhat on real fast. From the General Rules:

So that site is most definitely against the SE rules.

darn i was late to see the site. What was the cipher name?

Edited June 28, 2017 by asterion137

[Yitzi2]

2 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Ecthelion III

  Reveal hidden contents

if you're worried about breaking the rules with that spoiler box you could always use some kind of other code word that you know I'd get  (we've had a bunch of convos and RP together.....I'm sure there's something you could reference lol)

I think Stink really is a neutral...he's just a joker wild card lol

As for my role:

  Hide contents

bW3MXDc9EHTBU

The code word is our last name in that story you sent me.

@The Flash stink is just jealous cuz I wouldn't role claim to him hahahahahahahahahahahaha  (I was growing kind of suspicious of you but after your responses and explanations today I'm leaning more village for you...unfortunately we never got to work out all of our plan in the pm lol (maybe I can give you a coded message too lol)

@STINK you're crazy 

To everyone else....I will expand on my suspicions list I gave last night after I go eat food cuz I'm starved lol 

By the way, while the cipher source that you linked isn't allowed, I don't think it's problematic for everybody to know about the particular quirks it uses (as they will be needed for Ecth, or anyone else, to decode it by hand): Where a normal Vigenere cipher is based on the letters A-Z and can't produce numbers, that site has a version where it's based on A-Z, a-z, 0-9, and blank space.  Experimentation (not on the code itself, of course) yields that the blank space is positioned before the numbers.

@asterion137 it was a Vigenere cipher.

Edited June 28, 2017 by Yitzi2

[asterion137 he/him]

15 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

By the way, while the cipher source that you linked isn't allowed, I don't think it's problematic for everybody to know about the particular quirks it uses (as they will be needed for Ecth, or anyone else, to decode it by hand): Where a normal Vigenere cipher is based on the letters A-Z and can't produce numbers, that site has a version where it's based on A-Z, a-z, 0-9, and blank space.

@asterion137 it was a Vigenere cipher.

so the alphabet is ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQURSUVWXYZabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz 0123456789?

[Seonid he/him]

The more I think of this, the more I'm suspicious of Aman

Part gut, part being uncomfortable with his ardent defense of randuir. Part because of the way he turned the lynch away at the last minute. Part because of his demonstrated propensity to play counterintuitively as an Elim before. And part because I'm paranoid.

I should note that I don't trust Joe at all. And I should warn the rest of you that you shouldn't either. Convict? Could be. Could be an Elim claiming the convict. Sure, two players can refute it, but both players who can also have incentive to work with the Elims. And if the convict or PO actually calls them out, then they risk being Elim!killed. It's a risky move, but it's totally something Joe might do.

Do I actually believe this theory? Not really. But am I worried enough about it to bring it up? Certainly. And I think it's worth discussion.

[Steeldancer he/him]

41 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Flash's N1 posts:

1) Says he'll post soon

2) Apologises for for not answering Aman's question last turn. Says he'll post analysis  soon.

3) Expresses annoyance at number of PMs. Says he'll post analysis soon.

4) Finally posts 'the post' Elim reads [gut or otherwise] were: asterion, Drake, Yitzi, and Rae. Village [mild and strong, both]: PK, Len, BR, Arin, Wilson, Seonid, Crimsn, Stick, Lopen and Aman.The rest are either not-sure-of, or nuetrals. Just taking note of this.

5) Questions how Yitzi knows that elims tend to be scared of Aman.

6) Comment about drop bears.

7) Accepts Yitzi's explanation of point in post 5. Says he'll be keeping an eye on him anyway.

8) Says gut reads are a village thing. Hard to fake for elims.

9) Has a better idea of whats going on. 

10) Looks forward to hearing from Dalinar.

11) OOG things

12) OOG things

13) Says that it's a possibility that Rand wanted us to think that antagonizing the neutrals to swing elim is a move too risky for an elim to make.

So...all of these posts are pretty much NAI Except for post 4. 

@The Flash As for the PM thing you talked about...BR's last post last turn said

so...yeah. I think I'll keep my vote on you for now.

And huh @Yitzi2. I'm not sure what to think of that vote. Anyway, I'm signing off for today, so I'll talk about your post tomorrow.

I can't argue with your logic. You're entirely right that those posts are weird. Doesn't change the fact that I am village, and I would love to convince you of that fact, but your logic is accurate. And I didn't realize how many times I said that I'll post soon lol. For now I'll wait and see what happens. I do NOT think we should lynch aman. As I've mentioned before, I'm pretty much sure he's village. If it comes down to it, I would rather that I get lynched than aman. I think he's more valuable to the village.