Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

i mean ive already been over it but i mean sure can't wait for us to do the same on D2 and just make discussion pointless wew boy what a great day

Right

[Arinian]

I starting to regret that not voted on Stink. Can we change results of voting... atleast once?  

[Stick. she/her]

I prefer 48 hr night turns. Also, discussion isnt pointless because, like, when players die and make their alignments known, it's good to have some posts of theirs from earlier discussions and stuff to analyse. But yeah, we probably shouldn't make  these CFD things an every-cycle thing.

Edited June 26, 2017 by _Stick_
spellangs.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I prefer 48 hr night turns. Also, discussion dint pointless because, like, when players die and make their alignments known, it's good to have some posts of theirs from earlier discussions and stuff to analyse. But yeah, we probably shouldn't make  these CFD things an every-cycle thing.

Ties, though...

2 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I starting to regret that not voted on Stink. Can we change results of voting... atleast once?  

Really don't want us to waste time discussing lynching / actually killing neutrals. Doesn't really help us and STINK already has enough information to harm the village significantly with a mass reveal. Better to just not give him any more ammunition and let him pursue his win con, IMO.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@STINK here's what I said about Jon earlier last cycle

Quote

1. Albin Brodeur (Jondesu) - managing to fly in my blind spot. Hasn't contributed to the analysis this cycle even when prodded. Says he thinks we should take out Joe. (Reading either slightly elim or parole officer)

He then replied and said he hadn't posted any analysis cuz he had a lot on his plate (which I assume he was talking about irl stuff) but the reason he gave for not planning on giving analysis last cycle was because he wanted to wait until after the first cycle and lynch (which is annoying when people do that). And then he voted Rand after Aman had made a very good defense of Rand, and was still around after Arraenae? mentioned that if elim!Rand was trying to alienate the neutrals from the village then it would've been a unproductive plan considering once he died his alignment would show up elim. (He didn't change his vote after this)

And he then encouraged flash to share his thoughts even after he himself had said he was gonna wait to do so until after the first cycle/lynch.

So even if he was village....He still looked suspicious.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

5 hours ago, The Flash said:

1.  
2. Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - relatively quiet, but I hope he's village. Mild village vibe. 

(I just erased the non-important parts )

Relatively quiet? I probably posted like, 20 times or more.  But you've got a village read on me, so no complaints really.

2 hours ago, Arinian said:

 

________________________________________________________________________________________

Sooo... whom I suspecting.

I honestly don't have any good suspects... from my point of view all previous turn was absolute trash. Half of cycle people was debating whom to kill Stink or Straw(When nor Stink nor Straw done something something suspicious). Second part of cycle was about Rand and Joe and all discussion was based on "Is Joe doing something bad" or "Rand is alienating neutrals".  And then all ended with lynch on Jondesu... why and how?... who knows not me.

Okay, I really don't have any solid suspicions(That's night 1right now from where I should get solid suspicions? "shrug"), but atleast will say what I think about some players:

Lopen. I will just point what caught attention in his posts.

I quoted... you will see further why I quoted that.

And that his first post after he came back. As you can see he didn't placed vote. Honestly most of his posts for D1 looked for me like fillers. Also his words about moving lynch... I think it can be interpreted as slight preparing for saving someone from lynch(you know... one word there another there).

Okay, I think it's time to explain my idea... I know it's absolute scratch but from what I've seen I got feeling that Rand and Lopen can be teammates(and this Lopen's post can be just distancing). Yeah there looks like Lopen not  cares about if Rand will be lynched or not, he even didn't throw his vote. But after Aman's post:

 Lopen hastly throws vote on Yitzi. Looks like nice way to save teammate from lynch, safe and nice. And his reason of weird bandwagon on Rand looks flimsy, cause on my opinion bandwagon on Rand obviously formed as back reaction on Rand's push on neutrals(if mind don't lies to me most of votes on Rand were thrown after Willson's words about "neutrals not villagers". So maybe Lopen atleast particulary right... hmm... "shrug", cause situation close to one about which I talking right now). 

And there goes Lopen's reasoning for vote on Yitzi:

Okay, so Lopen's reasons to vote on Yitzi: 1)Strange defending of Straw. 2) Strange reasons for voting on Rand.

You know I not gonna bother myself too much and will just copy Aman's reasons to suspect Yitzi(will just say that Lopen's reasons to vote for Yitzi looks familiar... hmm... where I've seen them earlier):

So, conclusions: atleast guilty in not having his own opinion for voting on someone.(of course different people can have same reasons for voting on someone, but sequence of how all is happened mostly makes me suspect Lopen. He was saying that he suspecting Yitzi earlier than Aman but didn't vote till there was good situation for that). If Lopen is elim I think Rand can be too(I want to say that I'm not suspecting Rand he looks  villagy enough, but if Lopen is elim I think chances for Rand to be elims is high).

Yeah, I know that not very solid. But I can't give more then I have.

 

I didn't mean I'd immediately place a vote when I got back. Just that I would eventually put my vote down. As for my posts being fillers, yeah, I don't think many of them were very helpful for you all in getting a read on me, but it's better than not posting at all right?

My point about the bandwagon on Rand being weird was because I was surprised that players were trying to lynch such a good player on D1 based on such a small thing. Rand is smart enough that he's not going to publicly try to alienate the Neutrals to get them on the elims side(at least, IMO, I don't think he'd try that like people were suggesting).

I guess that's a fair point that I'm 'guilty' of not having original reasons for suspecting Yitzi. I think Aman's analysis of Yitzi probably did make my suspicion of him a little stronger, and helped me decide to vote on him instead of Stick. I also voted when there was a 'good situation' for it because I knew if I started a lynch on someone who didn't have any votes and I actually wanted it to happen, I had to have some support for it.

Anyways, that was a weird bandwagon on Jon. It's probably gonna get me stuck on Yitzi, tbh. >>

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

@TheMightyLopen 20 posts is quiet for you  lol jk

You didn't post as much analysis as usual...at least imo. (I've been cutting you some slack in my analysis though cuz I know you're sick irl)

[Amanuensis he/him]

Still think the Jon lynch was pure. I've got overall town vibes from Crimsn, Stick and Brightness, and I feel like if any one of those three was evil, they'd probably hesitate to put themselves in the spotlight like that. There are mild associative concerns between them and Yitzi, but that depends on Yitzi being evil, which is a more useful lead to pursue imo. Especially after that elims being afraid of me comment. I was impressed by how quickly he pulled up that quote from my bio on the championships, as it implies he didn't necessarily hear it through the rumor mill, although it could have been a slip, and there's nothing saying that said quote couldn't have been mentioned in the doc. Yitzi's definitely a player I would like people to extract more thoughts from over the course of the next few days, but I don't think there's anything that says he for sure has to be evil yet. There's quite a lot of people who haven't given me at least some indicator of being town, which means some are bound to be village, and Yitzi is just one that had a bit more content to look at which made him more ideal for analyzing.

[Arinian]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Really don't want us to waste time discussing lynching / actually killing neutrals. Doesn't really help us and STINK already has enough information to harm the village significantly with a mass reveal. Better to just not give him any more ammunition and let him pursue his win con, IMO.

It was joke. I really don't care about Stink and all what he is doing. He just harmless jester 

2 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I didn't mean I'd immediately place a vote when I got back. Just that I would eventually put my vote down. As for my posts being fillers, yeah, I don't think many of them were very helpful for you all in getting a read on me, but it's better than not posting at all right?

My point about the bandwagon on Rand being weird was because I was surprised that players were trying to lynch such a good player on D1 based on such a small thing. Rand is smart enough that he's not going to publicly try to alienate the Neutrals to get them on the elims side(at least, IMO, I don't think he'd try that like people were suggesting).

I guess that's a fair point that I'm 'guilty' of not having original reasons for suspecting Yitzi. I think Aman's analysis of Yitzi probably did make my suspicion of him a little stronger, and helped me decide to vote on him instead of Stick. I also voted when there was a 'good situation' for it because I knew if I started a lynch on someone who didn't have any votes and I actually wanted it to happen, I had to have some support for it.

Anyways, that was a weird bandwagon on Jon. It's probably gonna get me stuck on Yitzi, tbh. >>

Okay, but I keeping my eye on you 

6 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

He then replied and said he hadn't posted any analysis cuz he had a lot on his plate (which I assume he was talking about irl stuff) but the reason he gave for not planning on giving analysis last cycle was because he wanted to wait until after the first cycle and lynch (which is annoying when people do that). And then he voted Rand after Aman had made a very good defense of Rand, and was still around after Arraenae? mentioned that if elim!Rand was trying to alienate the neutrals from the village then it would've been a unproductive plan considering once he died his alignment would show up elim. (He didn't change his vote after this)

And he then encouraged flash to share his thoughts even after he himself had said he was gonna wait to do so until after the first cycle/lynch.

So even if he was village....He still looked suspicious.

I was lynched almost for same thing in QF24. I just prefer first cycle to sit and look. And I played enough with Jon(I think so...) and he don't like first day lynches too, prefers to stay aside or not to be involved too much(I think so from what I've seen, maybe it's not so "shrug").

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Arinian said:

It was joke. I really don't care about Stink and all what he is doing. He just harmless jester 

Okay, but I keeping my eye on you 

I was lynched almost for same thing in QF24. I just prefer first cycle to sit and look. And I played enough with Jon(I think so...) and he don't like first day lynches too, prefers to stay aside or not to be involved too much(I think so from what I've seen, maybe it's not so "shrug").

I hadn't thought on it, but that might also be why his vote on Rand felt weird to me (him usually staying out of D1 lynch).

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

2 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I was lynched almost for same thing in QF24. I just prefer first cycle to sit and look. And I played enough with Jon(I think so...) and he don't like first day lynches too, prefers to stay aside or not to be involved too much(I think so from what I've seen, maybe it's not so "shrug").

When players don't want to get involved on the first cycle, it makes me suspicious that they're actually trying to avoid the spotlight Day 1 and not get involved in too much confrontation right away. The elims seem to like hiding out in the beginning so when villagers do it too it makes me worry. Plus, no one really likes the first cycle lynch, so it doesn't seem right for some players to ignore the topic.

[Arinian]

1 minute ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

When players don't want to get involved on the first cycle, it makes me suspicious that they're actually trying to avoid the spotlight Day 1 and not get involved in too much confrontation right away. The elims seem to like hiding out in the beginning so when villagers do it too it makes me worry. Plus, no one really likes the first cycle lynch, so it doesn't seem right for some players to ignore the topic.

Still that didn't changes fact that some people just don't like it. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Basically why I think the best thing a villager can do is try to solve the game. If you're trying I'm probably going to townread you until I have reasonable doubts not to

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

2 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Still that didn't changes fact that some people just don't like it. 

True, but you could at least try. That's all anyone can do.

[Yitzi2]

35 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

(I just erased the non-important parts )

Relatively quiet? I probably posted like, 20 times or more.  But you've got a village read on me, so no complaints really.

I didn't mean I'd immediately place a vote when I got back. Just that I would eventually put my vote down. As for my posts being fillers, yeah, I don't think many of them were very helpful for you all in getting a read on me, but it's better than not posting at all right?

My point about the bandwagon on Rand being weird was because I was surprised that players were trying to lynch such a good player on D1 based on such a small thing. Rand is smart enough that he's not going to publicly try to alienate the Neutrals to get them on the elims side(at least, IMO, I don't think he'd try that like people were suggesting).

I guess that's a fair point that I'm 'guilty' of not having original reasons for suspecting Yitzi. I think Aman's analysis of Yitzi probably did make my suspicion of him a little stronger, and helped me decide to vote on him instead of Stick. I also voted when there was a 'good situation' for it because I knew if I started a lynch on someone who didn't have any votes and I actually wanted it to happen, I had to have some support for it.

Anyways, that was a weird bandwagon on Jon. It's probably gonna get me stuck on Yitzi, tbh. >>

And on which of the people who switched to Jon?

Anyway, @Amanuensis I still owe you two analyses (oh, and that quote was one that I saw on the other site in the match; while I didn't get to watch that match as it was happening, I did notice it afterward and looked at least a bit before finding that it was too hard to follow after-the-fact):

Arraenae: He gave advice that rioters and soothers save their charges for late game.  This is good advice, and is suggestive of him being village.  Likewise regarding his criticism of the suggestion that tineyes alternate days.  I now notice that he did have Revolution-focused RP like I mentioned for Drake (and in fact started it), though it doesn't feel the same...I think it might be the mention of "the Cause" by Drake that felt so over-the-top.  In any case, the fact that Rae started that RP means that Drake doesn't seem as suspicious as I first thought.  Also contributed some on the Joe matter.  Overall, not really suspicious, though some of the interaction with Drake does seem a bit buddy-like.

Crimsn-Wolf: A lot of posts, not extremely helpful ones, but nothing particularly suspicious there either.

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Basically why I think the best thing a villager can do is try to solve the game. If you're trying I'm probably going to townread you until I have reasonable doubts not to

I tried to solve the game by analyzing the endgame implications of the PO, and my resulting suggestion is what got you suspicious of me.  So...

Edited June 26, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Arraenae]

@Yitzi2, I'm a girl, by the way. Normally, when RPing, I try to get some interaction, especially if the character I'm writing doesn't have a very strong story by themself. I made a PM with Drake for RP planning, but it hasn't been very active.

I'd like to have 48 hour nights. PMs are great.

[Haelbarde he/him]

6 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

hile attention is on me, here's something that's been bothering me: Why is it “Rust their warnings, rust their lies!”, rather than  “Rust their warnings, ruin their lies!”?  ("Rust and ruin" is a common pairing.)  Was it just that it was started by someone who's not that familiar with age 2 Scadrial?

I had it in the opening writeup, and I was quoting the musical directly,  but then the sites swear filter changed them to damnation, which didn't at all work. So I just hurriedly changed it to rust (thinking more rusts) forgetting rust and ruin was a thing.

[Yitzi2]

13 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

@Yitzi2, I'm a girl, by the way.

My apologies for the mistake.

[Arraenae]

Thoughts on Yitzi:

I think he's generally familiar with the rules, but doesn't know all the details. He's probably not the PO. Ehen Yitzi was listing out all of the options for what Joe could be, he didn't take into account that the PO already knows who the Convict is.

Yitzi also thought that Rand could have been the PO or antagonizing the Neutrals, which is something I've thought too. I'm kind of interested in why he thought the PO has incentives to help the elims late game.

He engaged with Aman about Rand, so I get the feeling that he was really giving thought into the situation.

I have a slight townlean on Yitzi for now.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Thoughts on Yitzi:

I think he's generally familiar with the rules, but doesn't know all the details. He's probably not the PO. Ehen Yitzi was listing out all of the options for what Joe could be, he didn't take into account that the PO already knows who the Convict is.

Yitzi also thought that Rand could have been the PO or antagonizing the Neutrals, which is something I've thought too. I'm kind of interested in why he thought the PO has incentives to help the elims late game.

He engaged with Aman about Rand, so I get the feeling that he was really giving thought into the situation.

I have a slight townlean on Yitzi for now.

[Arraenae]

@Amanuensis, what did you say? I don't understand emoticonese.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Arraenae said:

@Amanuensis, what did you say? I don't understand emoticonese.

Didn't really say anything. Just thinking

[Yitzi2]

43 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Thoughts on Yitzi:

I think he's generally familiar with the rules, but doesn't know all the details. He's probably not the PO. Ehen Yitzi was listing out all of the options for what Joe could be, he didn't take into account that the PO already knows who the Convict is.

Yitzi also thought that Rand could have been the PO or antagonizing the Neutrals, which is something I've thought too. I'm kind of interested in why he thought the PO has incentives to help the elims late game.

He engaged with Aman about Rand, so I get the feeling that he was really giving thought into the situation.

I have a slight townlean on Yitzi for now.

Browser ate my post; good thing it wasn't a really huge one:

1. When I talked about the effects of Joe's claim given that someone wants to lynch him, I was referring more to the "willingness to make a deal with the elims" part (which would make him a lot easier to lynch); I did know that the PO already knows who the Convict is.

2. About why the PO has incentives to help the elims late game: Consider the following simplified scenario: Neutrals except the PO are all guaranteed wins and have gone inactive.  There are 3 villagers, 2 elims, no rioters or soothers, and everybody knows each others' alignment.  It's day.

If the PO does nothing, then an elim gets lynched, villager gets killed, elim gets lynched, game over with the Convict still alive, so the PO loses.

If the PO votes for the Convict, the elims will join him (essentially a hammer), making it a tie.  (The Convict doesn't vote because the Ward isn't threatened.)  50% chance that means the Convict is lynched, so a villager is killed and it's game (elim win, PO wins).  Otherwise, a villager is killed for 1v2 and the PO, so the PO tries again, making a total of 75% chance that the elims win due to the PO's vote.  (Obviously, deals could be struck, but if so it's better to do so earlier than later, and the elims still have an advantage with regard to the Convict in that they don't need the Convict to do anything except cooperate in his own win condition.)

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

Browser ate my post; good thing it wasn't a really huge one:

Seems to be happening to a lot of folks this game  I feel ya!

I guess considering that the number of posts has sky rocketed, so have the lost posts lol

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Seems to be happening to a lot of folks this game  I feel ya!

I guess considering that the number of posts has sky rocketed, so have the lost posts lol

And it's Firefox, which is usually pretty good about that sort of thing.