DeTess she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 I'll make a little post with my various impressions of different players. I won't go too in-depth on any specific people now, though I will do so when/if I get around to voting next cycle. First, the Neutrals. I believe the following people have claimed Neutral: Orlok, STINK, Joe and Wilson. I'm fairly certain that Orlok and Joe are speaking the truth, so I'm going to leave them out of any analysis for now. I'm not quite as certain about Wilson, but I don't have any reasons to believe she's not speaking the truth at the moment, so while I'll be keeping an eye on her, I'm not planning on putting her in the spotlight. As far as I'm concerned, STINK could still be any alignment. Unlike the others I think an alignment claim by STINK is thoroughly NAI. Jay (The Flash) He's been hopping around a lot with his votes, while simultaneously claiming that he doesn't know what is going on (why would you do that?). Some of his comments (such as his question about who to vote for after retracting from STINK) make me wonder whether he's trying to appear to still be rather new and inexperienced (he's finished an LG and an MR, and is currently playing a QF, so I think he's past the wide-eyed new-player stage). Slight elim read. Name Name (Straw) I don't think an elim would have been as quick to reveal Joe's PM. He's also been far more active than I've usually seen him be. id' like to hear what exactly felt of about my psots if he gets time for it, but overall I'm getting a small village vibe from him. Siv (Cloudjumper) -Cloudjumper hasn't posted much yet, though the one post he has made seems to make reasonable arguments. I'd prefer to hear why exactly he got a village vibe, but I doubt an elim would be trying to get on my 'nice people'-list at that point, so I'm not reading too much into it. He's also forgetting that we did in fact play one game together (QF23), but he was mostly inactive, and got lynched C2. Very slight village read Luigi (Shqueeves) Only made two comments, both NAI, neither of which where particularly related to the game. I'd like to hear more from him. No read. Edmond Dantès (asterion137) Two of his posts seem like attempts to generate suspicion without having to really commit to making his own reads (his comment about straws PM avalanche appearing odd to someone more suspicious than him, and his comment that the last-minute vote-swing led to a lack of logic used). On the other hand, he did put in his two cents in defense of me, though that could have been a ploy to be able to say ' I told you so'  in case I got lynched. No read, but based on getting opposing impressions from his posts, rather than not getting anything, like with Shqueeves. Carcer (Paranoid King) Has posted only twice, once asking the flash to be more active, and once suggesting an inactive is lynched instead of the people that where up fro the lynch at that point. He's also made a couple of big group PM's for seemingly no other reason that that he could. At least his opening text in these PM's seemed to indicate that he was quite aware of the fact that they where pretty random PM's. The suggestion that we lynch an inactive could have been a villager trying to suggest a D1 lynch that wouldn't hurt the village much, but it could also have been an elim ploy to deprive the village of information that the lynch of a more active player would give. Very slight elim read. Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) He's made a couple of posts, but none of them really say anything. I don't like how he kept mentioning being suspicious of me without providing anything to really back it up. No read, but if he keeps continually claiming that things feel off about people while not providing more reasoning, this read will probably slip in the elim direction. Roger Elariel (Elenion) Hasn't posted as much yet, but he's playing a bunch of games simultaneously, so it's not that odd. His vote for Straw is NAI, and there isn't much else. I'm kinda interested how STINK managed to read village rather than Neutral in his PM's, but I'm not sure how much I should look into that line. No read. Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) I'm going to have to do a more through read of BR's posts before I make a final verdict, but I am getting a bit of a village vibe from her. Sure, she voted on me, but she also supported that vote with decent reasoning (even if I don't agree with it), and was willing to change her mind. Actually, after taking another look, I think she might be another Neutral, which would also explain a couple of things (I believe she started the vote against me, with Orlok and Joe close behind, which might indicate she's another Neutral). I'm not certain though. Alrin (Arinian) I'm getting a definite village vibe from arin based on his posts this night. I haven't seen him do too much analysis before (though I think he died early in most games I've been in with him, which might be the cause of that), so seeing him do that now is always good. I don't think an elim would decide to break an established behaviour pattern. Aimes (Araris Valerian) He voted on Straw apparently based solely on Straw's PM proliferation. This make more sense once he explains that this is a tactic he's seen an elim do before. Despite wanting to lynch Straw, he's still willing to be ciritcal of the other votes on him. Though this could be an elim setting up for taking advantage of the fallout of a village lynch, I don't think most elims would be critical of those joining his vote at that early stage, as the vote could have still gone everywhere, especially if he convinced those two to vote elsewhere. Slight village read. Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) Hasn't posted anything yet, as apparently he got swamped by a massive thread. He also specifically indicates he wants to read everything before committing to a vote, which might be a more town thing to do, but it also seems to be common sense so it's NAI. No read. Siena Mattel (Seonid) Hasn't posted too much C1 either. One thing of note is his decision to support the Yitzi lynch. His provided reasoning is apparently that he's doing it purely because he thinks it would provide a decent amount of information(no other reasons provided), but imho Yitzi is a good enough player that killing him only for the information is a pretty bad play unless it guarantees at least 1 elim to be revealed. Seonid did play QF23, so, I think he ought to know this as well. Slight elim read. Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Apart from an initial post in which he talked about the merits and risks of various neutral roles claiming, Drake's been mostly posting RP. He has apparently been part of a ploy with Joe to try to draw out the PO. Don't really have a read on him yet, though I'd like him to share his own reads on various players with the thread(though I might have wanted to read that initial post a bit better). Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) I'm a bit suspicious of crimsn as it appeared she was trying to play a 'newbie card'  in her first post (though it's true this is her second game on these forums, Joe mentioned in the MR22 dead-doc that she is a bit of a maffia-veteran). She didn't react to me calling her out on that before (though she might have missed that in the massive stack of pages that followed after that). A quick skim of the rest of her posts doesn't really show anything that suggests she's either village or elim, but like BR, I need to take the time to do a proper read-through of her posts. Slight elim read for now. Dandi (_Stick_) Stick seems to be doing his (wait, wasn't stick a her? can't remember, sorry Stick) homework (ie: reading up on LG30 to see how elim!rand operates, for example), which is a more village thing to do in my opinion. I also think an elim would have known whether there was an alignment-scanner in this game or not, though he could have made that mistake on purpose to seem village. Right now, I've got a village read here. Kliff (TheMightyLopen) I'm not committing to reads on Lopen. The only way I can read him is if I've got a role-scanner role and I'm absolutely certain that there is no way for him to block that scan. And even then I'll be second-guessing myself. Garshin (Yitzi2) I'm actually somewhat surprised that he hadn't reached the same conclusion about Joe that I did, as I've seen him apply game theory and looking for what the optimal play from a pure logic standpoint is before. Then again, I might have mentioned to him to be careful with that, as people tend to not act logically. Maybe I should have taken my own advice here. If Straw proves to be evil it might be a good idea to look at Yitzi again based on his subtle defense of Straw, but right now his posts give me a village vibe (though some of it feels slightly out-of-character for him). I do need to do another re-read of his posts but one thing that struck me as village is that an elim would probably have held his vote on me for a bit longer to see if anyone else would join before retracting if it looked like it wouldn't go anywhere. Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Has only posted once. I'd prefer to hear more from him. No read. Mykal (Amanuensis) Almost certainly village. However I look at it, I can'f figure out how the elims would stand to profit more from Elim!Aman's alignment getting attached to my own, than from just getting me lynched. I'm pretty sure he is entirely to blame for the monstrous proportions the D1 thread has grown to, however (though whether that ends op aiding the elims or village is anyone's guess at this point). Phil (STINK) Absolutely no rusting clue about Stink's alignment. I don't think it's Chaotic Good, but it could be Chaotic Neutral or a subtle Chaotic Evil. Julie (Arraenae) Her initial comment about smokers saving their charges until later doesn't sit entirely right with me. it makes sens for stopping last-minute vote manipulation, but if you want to stop the elims from building an accurate portrait of who do and do not have powers then the smokers should probably be smoking early, as the elims will try to build up an information advantage if they have a seeker early. She mentions that they should wait till the end game when there are more role-claims, but that kinda removes the point. her vote on straw also seems to be mostly justified by counter-wagoning. I don't think there has been a point in this game where anyone accrued enough votes that the only way to lynch someone else was to join a counter-wagon, so this makes me suspicious as well. Elim-read, but like with the others that have posted a lot, I'm going to need to do a careful re-evaluation before voting on her. Suterna (Elbereth) Elbereth has only 1 substantial post. She correctly called me out on making the assumption that there was only 1 tin-eye, but then makes an assumption herself that there would be multiple tin-eyes neatly split among the player-group. I think an elim planning on building this up as arguments for a lynch later would probably make sure not to commit the same mistake. The rest of this post contains some good advice, but like with my own similar post, it's mostly NAI. I've got a slight village read on her.  2
Arinian Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, randuir said: Alrin (Arinian) I'm getting a definite village vibe from arin based on his posts this night. I haven't seen him do too much analysis before (though I think he died early in most games I've been in with him, which might be the cause of that), so seeing him do that now is always good. I don't think an elim would decide to break an established behaviour pattern. That's lie, I don't die early usualy. Honestly I can remeber only QF24 when I died in first 5 cycles. Maybe it's you who died early? I remember in LG 31 I killed you on night 1 or night 2... hmm...
DeTess she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Arinian said: That's lie, I don't die early usualy. Honestly I can remeber only QF24 when I died in first 5 cycles. Maybe it's you who died early? I remember in LG 31 I killed you on night 1 or night 2... hmm... Yeah, thar might be it. I believe you got lynched in lg30 in C4, or something though you got better. I still don't remember too much in-depth analysis from you in earlier games, though I might be misremembering.
Steeldancer he/him Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 I have a better idea of what's going on now. It was catching up on that mess known as day 1 that made me say I had no idea what was going on  at this point my inexperience is unimportant, except I'm not familiar with some of the more complicated strategies.Â
Arinian Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 25 minutes ago, randuir said: Yeah, thar might be it. I believe you got lynched in lg30 in C4, or something though you got better. I still don't remember too much in-depth analysis from you in earlier games, though I might be misremembering. Nahh... in LG30 I was lynched but I dodged it by edgdancing from prison.
STINK he/him Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 hour ago, randuir said: Â Phil (STINK) Absolutely no rusting clue about Stink's alignment. I don't think it's Chaotic Good, but it could be Chaotic Neutral or a subtle Chaotic Evil. 1
Yitzi2 Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 2 hours ago, randuir said: Garshin (Yitzi2) I'm actually somewhat surprised that he hadn't reached the same conclusion about Joe that I did, as I've seen him apply game theory and looking for what the optimal play from a pure logic standpoint is before. Then again, I might have mentioned to him to be careful with that, as people tend to not act logically. Maybe I should have taken my own advice here. If Straw proves to be evil it might be a good idea to look at Yitzi again based on his subtle defense of Straw, but right now his posts give me a village vibe (though some of it feels slightly out-of-character for him). I do need to do another re-read of his posts but one thing that struck me as village is that an elim would probably have held his vote on me for a bit longer to see if anyone else would join before retracting if it looked like it wouldn't go anywhere. About Joe: What was your conclusion that I didn't reach? I must have missed it. (I also missed Wilson's claim, what was that one?) And that's a good point about my vote on you; perhaps the fact that I retracted fairly early will help make it clearer that it was based on an honest belief that you were a dangerous-to-the-village neutral role, rather than trying to get a villager lynched or alienate you. My seeming out-of-character may be at least partially due to being able to be that active early on. (My near-miss with a lynch in QF24 over my strategizing to help the village might have also had an effect.)
xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, randuir said: Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) I'm a bit suspicious of crimsn as it appeared she was trying to play a 'newbie card'  in her first post (though it's true this is her second game on these forums, Joe mentioned in the MR22 dead-doc that she is a bit of a maffia-veteran). She didn't react to me calling her out on that before (though she might have missed that in the massive stack of pages that followed after that). A quick skim of the rest of her posts doesn't really show anything that suggests she's either village or elim, but like BR, I need to take the time to do a proper read-through of her posts. Slight elim read for now. I did see you call me out earlier, but I didn't react to it because of everything else that was happening in thread, lol. As far as the newbie card, how do you figure I am playing it? I pulled that in my first game here because no one but Joe really knew me, so I figured it would be safe. I wouldnt pull the same stunt twice as an elim. The best I can guess that you are reading is my talk about giving analysis? If that is the case, it has been a long time since I had to type out all my thoughts about players, so I wasnt sure how well it would turn out when I tried to again. That's the only thing I think might have been misread as playing the newboe card, but if there is something else, feel free to ask me. I am perfectly happy to explain and answer any suspicions you may have. Although I am going to go to sleep now, so I wont be on for a few hours Edited June 27, 2017 by Crimsn-Wolf Fixing colour
DeTess she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Crimsn-Wolf said: I did see you call me out earlier, but I didn't react to it because of everything else that was happening in thread, lol. As far as the newbie card, how do you figure I am playing it? I pulled that in my first game here because no one but Joe really knew me, so I figured it would be safe. I wouldnt pull the same stunt twice as an elim. The best I can guess that you are reading is my talk about giving analysis? If that is the case, it has been a long time since I had to type out all my thoughts about players, so I wasnt sure how well it would turn out when I tried to again. That's the only thing I think might have been misread as playing the newboe card, but if there is something else, feel free to ask me. I am perfectly happy to explain and answer any suspicions you may have. Although I am going to go to sleep now, so I wont be on for a few hours It was from that post, but not quite the part you're referencing here (I think): Quote I don't really have much to add analysis-wise as of yet, because I don't really have enough to go off of. This is only my second game, and I'm not accustomed to sharing my personal thoughts publicly. The bolded was what made me feel like you where trying to play the newbie card. It is possible you'd intended this differently, but my interpretation seems to be the most obvious to me (...obviously).
xxGaea They/Them, Fae/Faer Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, randuir said: It was from that post, but not quite the part you're referencing here (I think): The bolded was what made me feel like you where trying to play the newbie card. It is possible you'd intended this differently, but my interpretation seems to be the most obvious to me (...obviously). //last post before I actually sleep whoops// Ahh, I can see why you took it as such. While I may have played a lot of mafia-type games over the years, this is one of my first experiences doing such in a forum setting. I am not new to mafia, but I am new to forum-mafia, hence why I was saying it is only my second game. Like I said, this is the first time in years that I've needed to actually verbalize my suspicions and other ideas while playing. I am much more used to remaining quiet and voting based on gut reactions. (at least as village or neutral)
DeTess she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Crimsn-Wolf said: //last post before I actually sleep whoops// Ahh, I can see why you took it as such. While I may have played a lot of mafia-type games over the years, this is one of my first experiences doing such in a forum setting. I am not new to mafia, but I am new to forum-mafia, hence why I was saying it is only my second game. Like I said, this is the first time in years that I've needed to actually verbalize my suspicions and other ideas while playing. I am much more used to remaining quiet and voting based on gut reactions. (at least as village or neutral) Ah, that explains a lot. From Joe's reaction in the dead-doc I'd assumed you where also experienced with playing mafia on other forums, which is why that comment stuck out to me. To get some more info about this I'd also asked you just how much experience you'd had with mafia back during the day-cycle.
Yitzi2 Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 I had a thought (actually last night, but then I forgot about it and remembered now): Straw did a lot of claiming to be neutral. How many of those claims were as part of a roleclaim trade? If he's been doing a lot of roleclaim trading, is neutral, and is unwilling to tell us which neutral role he is, I'm wondering if he might be the thief.
STINK he/him Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Yitzi2 said: I had a thought (actually last night, but then I forgot about it and remembered now): Straw did a lot of claiming to be neutral. How many of those claims were as part of a roleclaim trade? If he's been doing a lot of roleclaim trading, is neutral, and is unwilling to tell us which neutral role he is, I'm wondering if he might be the thief. straw isnt neutral lmao
Yitzi2 Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 minute ago, STINK said: straw isnt neutral lmao Whoops. My mistake. I said Straw, and meant STINK.
STINK he/him Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said: Whoops. My mistake. I said Straw, and meant STINK. stink is neutral lmao also this is why yitzi is the most hard cleared village
Yitzi2 Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 Just now, STINK said: stink is neutral lmao also this is why yitzi is the most hard cleared village I don't think I really understand either of your comments.
Stick. she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 4 hours ago, randuir said: Dandi (_Stick_) Stick seems to be doing his (wait, wasn't stick a her? can't remember, sorry Stick) homework (ie: reading up on LG30 to see how elim!rand operates, for example), which is a more village thing to do in my opinion. I also think an elim would have known whether there was an alignment-scanner in this game or not, though he could have made that mistake on purpose to seem village. Right now, I've got a village read here. her :P But sometimes, I, as an elim, do ask questions/make comments that would seem like something anyone paying attention would know better of. And it's not very eyebrow-raising because I generally tend to ask obvious rule-related questions anyway :P Though this was genuine, or I wouldn't have corrected my mistake, I guess XD 4 hours ago, randuir said: Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Has only posted once. I'd prefer to hear more from him. No read. Same. @Dalinar Kholin yo where you at 37 minutes ago, STINK said: also this is why yitzi is the most hard cleared village The only way for someone to be hard cleared village is to say the following words: Do the wolves know who their teammates are and can I have the gun 2
Arraenae Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 @_Stick_, mind explaining that to the people who haven't had the luxury of spectating the Mafia Universe Championship thing? As the day wore on, Julie's stomach grumbled with increasing intensity. She tried to take her mind off of her hunger by adding more furniture to the barricade and shouting more slogans at the othet side, but it didn't work. Her belly remained as empty-feeling as before. "Lukas, can we, well, can I go inside to see of anyone has food? I know it's not lunchtime, but maybe somebody will have something?" @Drake Marshall Also, anyone else want to RP? @OrlokTsubodai @Elbereth @Amanuensis @randuir ?
Stick. she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 @Arraenae Lol it's not from the championship. It's just something I said (feigning ignorance) during a Wolfia game in the discord sever that apparently 'cleared' me for the rest of the (3-minute) game. I was evil and I won 1
BrightnessRadiant she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 7 hours ago, randuir said: Actually, after taking another look, I think she might be another Neutral, which would also explain a couple of things (I believe she started the vote against me, with Orlok and Joe close behind, which might indicate she's another Neutral). I'm not certain though. Hehe I'm not a neutral (although I really wanted to be so maybe that's why I'm on their side lol) But seriously, I don't think we should bother with lynching them unless we know they've completely joined the dark side lol (it just wastes a lynch imo) From what I've heard, the elims won't even talk to the neutrals though, and some of the neutrals are annoyed with them  so if you're an elim you should probably talk to one before they join the light side completely lol (while I'd love that, it's not much fun for the neutrals to not be able to play both sides if they want so it's not very nice to keep them in the dark ) That being said (partially as a favor to a neutral lol) I'd still rather have their help and I hope the elims continue to rub them the wrong way cuz it's to our advantage lol @randuir I'm slightly suspicious of you again, but thank you for posting your thoughts on everyone (regardless of your alignment) cuz it helps me get a better read on you and others in the future. Plus, it's making me lean more village on you than I was.Â
Dalinar Kholin Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 On 6/26/2017 at 11:13 AM, The Flash said: Aimes (Araris Valerian) - neutral read. Yet again, the guy is invisible. And you still havent told me how you do it. Kliff (TheMightyLopen) - relatively quiet, but I hope he's village. Mild village vibe. Garshin (Yitzi2) - maybe it's from trusting you in LG34, but I'm getting a mild elim read. Nothing conclusive. Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) inactive. First, congrats on all the analysis. Although I'm not sure if your read on Lopen is because you hope he's village? Or just a gut read? I also disagree that I'm inactive, the word you are looking for is "lurking," which despite the generally negative connotations I'm still thinking of what to add. I'm afraid I haven't read throught all the day one stuff, I'm working my way through the night phase first.
DeTess she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 @Straw, if you've got time and don't need to do more important stuff, like analysis, is there any chance you could make a graph comparing the length of D1 of this game with the total length of all MR's and QF's? @Dalinar Kholin, unfortunately, lurking and inactive look very similar from our perspective. I can understand it if you need some time to process that monster of a D1 thread, however.
Yitzi2 Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 minute ago, randuir said: Â @Dalinar Kholin, unfortunately, lurking and inactive look very similar from our perspective. In fact, lurking looks even worse, because at least an inactive elim probably isn't going to be sending in the kill or participating in a hammer.
Dalinar Kholin Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Yitzi2 said: In fact, lurking looks even worse, because at least an inactive elim probably isn't going to be sending in the kill or participating in a hammer. Â 4 minutes ago, randuir said: @Straw, if you've got time and don't need to do more important stuff, like analysis, is there any chance you could make a graph comparing the length of D1 of this game with the total length of all MR's and QF's? @Dalinar Kholin, unfortunately, lurking and inactive look very similar from our perspective. I can understand it if you need some time to process that monster of a D1 thread, however. I'm quite aware Yitzi2, however, last time I tried to post analysis it got me immediately lynched. So suffice to say I'm still a little irritated. I've read through the night phase, but not to much to say for it. Isn't worth putting out a massive list of analysis on everyone like Flash and Randuir have put out. Not enough to say. Will point out that Wilson and some others have been critiquing Randuirs aggressive perspective on neutrals. I disagree with the logic of treating them as enemies. However, I get the perspective and have a mild village read on Randuir, it's honest analysis and seems reasonably logical to me. Also, I'm moving right now, getting settled in at new place and new job tonight. So I'm probs not going to get to much more analysis.
Elbereth she/her Posted June 27, 2017 Posted June 27, 2017 So, in the past few days a family crisis has come up that I've been dealing with, and I'm not certain when the situation will improve. Thought I could manage the game as well, but... it's a bit much right now. I will still be playing, but probably won't be doing more than skimming thread at best and getting summaries from a couple people. PM me if you need to reach me, and sorry for not being able to be active right now. :/Â
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