Long Game 35: L35 Miserables

[Arinian]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So you're suspicious of Lopen because he didn't have a unique reason for voting Yitzi, and you believe he was trying to save Rand's life. For that first part, don't you think that applies to everyone who voted for Straw, Rand, and Jon as well (after the initial votes)? Why focus on Lopen and not any of them? Do I take it you believe that Yitzi is a villager? If so, why does he seem more good than Lopen does?

What? No, I don't think that Yitzi is more villager then Lopen, for me they both on same level of suspicions I can say. And no, not cause he don't have unique reasons.

I will just quote myself from same post.

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of course different people can have same reasons for voting on someone, but sequence of how all is happened mostly makes me suspect Lopen. He was saying that he suspecting Yitzi earlier than Aman but didn't vote till there was good situation for that

I don't like how this is happened, for me looked like Lopen was just waiting for better moment to vote. When he can be not blamed in lynch of villager.

[Yitzi2]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Pretty sure I explained how Rand proved himself a villager D1 already.

You explained significant reason to suspect he was a villager, and in particular why his actions that day were not an indication of elim-hood.  That does not constitute proof that he's a villager, at least not sufficient for the instinctuality of your response.

That said, I am starting to think that the evidence favors you simply you going overboard with trust rather than an "elimbuddies" situation.  Aman.

 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, Arinian said:

 

 

 

What? No, I don't think that Yitzi is more villager then Lopen, for me they both on same level of suspicions I can say. And no, not cause he don't have unique reasons.

I will just quote myself from same post.

I don't like how this is happened, for me looked like Lopen was just waiting for better moment to vote. When he can be not blamed in lynch of villager.

I was basing those questions off your conclusion, specifically not having his own opinion and that he might have been waiting for an opportunity to save Rand. Don't you think it's convenient that he said he wanted to vote for Yitzi earlier that day, and then I eventually come in with analysis and a vote? Wouldn't that imply that Lopen and I are evil together? In turn, does that mean that Rand, Lopen and I are evil together? What about Cloud, is he in on this too? Did the entire eliminator team reveal themselves on the first day just to save Rand? Is that more likely than us being villagers who are genuinely thinking about this game enough to determine a couple alignments?

2 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

 

 

 

You explained significant reason to suspect he was a villager, and in particular why his actions that day were not an indication of elim-hood.  That does not constitute proof that he's a villager, at least not sufficient for the instinctuality of your response.

That said, I am starting to think that this was simply you going overboard with trust rather than an "elimbuddies" situation.  Aman.

I personally think it's proof enough. Lynching a Neutral that wants to work with the eliminator team makes no sense for an eliminator, both because it doesn't get them any closer to winning and reduces the number of allies they have. If Rand's knee-jerk reaction to Joe trying to work with the villains of this game isn't evidence of being good, I guess I'm the games biggest fool for believing it.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Yitzi2]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I personally think it's proof enough. Lynching a Neutral that wants to work with the eliminator team makes no sense for an eliminator, both because it doesn't get them any closer to winning and reduces the number of allies they have.

And proposing the lynch of a neutral who has a vested interest in cooperating with the eliminators is that much more sensible for an elim?

[Arinian]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I was basing those questions off your conclusion, specifically not having his own opinion and that he might have been waiting for an opportunity to save Rand. Don't you think it's convenient that he said he wanted to vote for Yitzi earlier that day, and then I eventually come in with analysis and a vote? Wouldn't that imply that Lopen and I are evil together? In turn, does that mean that Rand, Lopen and I are evil together? What about Cloud, is he in on this too? Did the entire eliminator team reveal themselves on the first day just to save Rand? Is that more likely than us being villagers who are genuinely thinking about this game enough to determine a couple alignments?

I don't said none of this. I said that I don't like mostly how slowly he was approaching to vote and voted only after when you said your suspicion. I really bored of repeating that. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I don't said none of this. I said that I don't like mostly how slowly he was approaching to vote and voted only after when you said your suspicion. I really bored of repeating that. 

I know you didn't say any of that. I was taking the scenario to it's logical conclusion and asking you which you think is more likely. I get what you're saying about Lopen slowly approaching the vote, but I don't get how it's alignment indicative.

6 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

And proposing the lynch of a neutral who has a vested interest in cooperating with the eliminators is that much more sensible for an elim?

Huh? I just said an eliminator would not do that. Maybe if they thought about it over time and discussed it with their teammates, but not within minutes of finding out.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[STINK he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Because?

I lurk on MU for a reason ya know

[Arraenae]

What does pocketing mean?

 

[Yitzi2]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Huh? I just said an eliminator would not do that. Maybe if they thought about it over time and discussed it with their teammates, but not within minutes of finding out.

So then why did my "lynch the PO because he has a vested interest in working with the elims" argument cause you to be more suspicious of me (IIRC) rather than less?

Edited June 29, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

So then why did my "lynch the PO because he has a vested interest in working with the elims" argument cause you to be more suspicious of me rather than less?

Oh, sorry, I thought you were still asking about Rand.

As for that, no. I don't believe you honestly thought that Rand was the Parole Officer. There was way too much supporting evidence of Rand not being that role.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Yitzi2]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Oh, sorry, I thought you were still asking about Rand.

As for that, no. I don't believe you honestly thought that Rand was the Parole Officer. There was way too much supporting evidence of Rand not being them.

Namely?

[Amanuensis he/him]

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Time for Randuir's (C) pattented (TM) opinions on roles and strategy suggestions:

Let'start with the allomantic metals:

• Tin: Tin is the only way PM's are available in this game, and PM's can be very important for passing on information or having behind the scenes discussion. Personally, I'd recommend having tin up roughly every 2-3 cycles, but since there are only limited charges available, the tin-eyes should use their own judgement ehre as well to see how often they sue their power. if at all possible, try to save enough tin for the last 1-2 cycles, as that's where, in my experience, PM's make the most difference.
• Soother/rioter: I've seen it advised once or twice before that the vote manipulators should announce their presence in C1, just so everyone knows how many there are. I personally think this is a bad idea. Elim manipulators won't do it, and village manipulators won't (shouldn't) be participants in elim hammers to change votes, so knowing how many village manipulators there are is in the interest of the elims, not the village. For the rest, use good judgement and time your use of the metal where it'll make a difference.
• Smokers: I don't have too much to add here. Personally I'd reserve using this power for preventing vote manipulation on close votes, but if you're in contact with an important allomancer, using it to hide them from any elims seekers is also a valid use (points at ringleader).
• Seeker: remember that people protected by copper look identical to people not burning at all. Also, there is only 1 lurcher (thief's child) and 1 coinshot (ringleader). Both of these are village-aligned (child is technically neutral, but wants to protect a villager). Apart from this little reminder, I don't have anything else to add.
• Thug: I'd personally say that it'd be better to use charges when you didn't need them, than to die with charges unspent. However, if you've only got a couple of charges, you should probably exercise good judgement. Depending on the situation, you might want to consider allowing a lynch to just take you out. If you think you can convince the village of your innocence with more time, go for it, but if you don't, it might be better to go down in one go. In my experience, nothing kills discussion faster than a lynch that is locked in within the first 12 hours of a cycle, which could be the case for a pewter-arm that survived a lynch.

Village roles:

• Ringleader: As always with a kill role, you should exercise good judgement. Remember that, even if the scavenger doesn't die, you are only guaranteed 2 shots, and you will at most get 4 if the scavenger is very lucky.
• Scavenger: Pay attention to when the ringleader makes his kill. You don't want to waste a dose of retrieved steel.
• Pauper Noble: Remember that as long as the thief's child is alive, you've got the possibility of an extra layer of protection, so if you also happen to be a pewter-arm, you should keep this in mind. Also, just because you can drop to a neutral role doesn't mean you shouldn't be trying to win the game for the village. The ward might never find you, and even if he/she does, you still need to make it to the end of the game alive.

Neutral roles(as far as they have some influence on the success of the village):

• Escaped convict: You can soak up a single attack against your ward, so try to stay alive to do so.
• Parole officer: It would be in the villages interest if you could refrain from taking down the convict until after he's used up his one-shot protection. Thanks in advance  .
• Thief's Child: depending on how many charges of iron you get, either use good judgement or have a permanent defense up. Remember, you lose if the pauper baron dies, and the village doesn't want the pauper baron to die as he's village.
• Thief: Unless it's from a suspected elim, that is.

At a first glance, there are no particular game mechanics suitable for unusual amounts of subversion to try and find the elims(no alignment scans, and no abilities that would react differently to elims), so victory in this game will probably be mostly down to good analysis.

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Btw, for the D1 lynch, I think we should be trying to be more critical of who to lynch than we generally tend to be for D1. The reason being that I expect the parole officer to use the D1 lynch to get the escaped convict without having to make a very strong case for why we should lynch that person. Depending on who the convict is, this might not be a possible tactic (good luck trying to get Wilson or Lopen lynched D1 without a very solid case, for example), but I do think we need to be aware that there is a player out there who has an interest in getting us to mislynch a particular person.

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Because it's not actually a guarantee that they won't be attacked if they claim. For example, if the thief where to role-claim right now, I'd seriously consider putting him/her forward as the D1 lynch, just so that the risk he poses to the village metal reserves is elliminated. The same goes for the parole officer, as his goal is directly detrimental to the village (cause a mis-lynch).

Just to highlight three of his posts on the first two pages.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick. she/her]

8 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

What does pocketing mean?

When an elim buddies-up with a villager to make them seem less suspicious 

[Yitzi2]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Just to highlight three of his posts on the first two pages.

The first one could very possibly be him trying to seem less PO-ey, while not really harming his ability to lynch the PO.  The second would very well fit a PO who wasn't planning on trying to do it with the D1 lynch anyway (especially as most people probably could figure out the impact of the PO)...but then Joe's "deal with the elims" PMs were too good an opportunity to pass up.  The third also only affects a PO who'd try to roleclaim.

I wouldn't say those posts are strong evidence he's the PO...but they are certainly compatible with a PO trying to hide his identity who wasn't expecting an opportunity on Joe to come up so soon.

(I also don't remember if I'd carefully read those posts at the time; I sort of skimmed the first few hours' worth.)

Edited June 29, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

The first one could very possibly be him trying to seem less PO-ey, while not really harming his ability to lynch the PO.  The second would very well fit a PO who wasn't planning on trying to do it with the D1 lynch anyway (especially as most people probably could figure out the impact of the PO)...but then Joe's "deal with the elims" PMs were too good an opportunity to pass up.  The third also only affects a PO who'd try to roleclaim.

I wouldn't say those posts are strong evidence he's the PO...but they are certainly compatible with a PO trying to hide his identity who wasn't expecting an opportunity on Joe to come up so soon.

Could be. Or it could be he isn't the PO. Although I feel his voting for Joe if he was contradicts everything he said before that (personally I think Rand would be more subtle). That being said, the reason I'm suspicious of you has a lot more to do with that.

 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Amanuensis
Added in text within parenthesis

[Yitzi2]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Could be. Or it could be he isn't the PO.

Could be.  At the time, I was fairly certain he was...now, I'm not so sure.

But at least thank you for explaining your reasoning: You're suspicious of me because I thought Rand was the PO, when you think there is very strong evidence he isn't.

[DeTess she/her]

Alright, on to @asterion137. His first two posts of the first day stand out to me in a bad way:

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2 pm's per person seems a little excessive. The "group pm" especially would seem (to a more suspicious person than me) like an attempt to listen in on others' conversations by putting them in arbitrary groups.

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To be clear, I don't think voting against either straw or stink would be justifiable if we had any other leads, but I still prefer it over a pure gut read. I'll still abstain from voting unless something concrete comes up though

This feels to me like he's trying to generate suspicion of Straw and/or STINK without actually having to commit himself. The first post gives me that vibe more than the second one (without context, I'd say the second post was NAI).

His arguments after that are for the most part good arguments about why I'm probably not an elim, and if he wasn't contradicting himself so badly in D2, I'd consider him village based on this.

He only posts once during the night, despite it being 48 hours long. He comments that he doesn't like the Jondesu swing at all. In and of itself I'd say this is NAI, but it's also a good set-up for his swing on me and Aman this cycle.

Anyway, he uses his first 4 posts this cycle to try to figure out how to crack the code BR put in the thread, despite it not being meant for him. This could both be a curious villager or an elim action though, so it's NAI.

His decision to start voting one me seems really strange though. He seemed rather convinced that I was in fact village during D1, and I don't think I've said or done anything that would explain a sudden change of heart since then (If I had, asterion should be bringing that up). His reasoning is that he doesn't like how people voted to try and save me (and several others, I might add), but he's ignoring the fact that he justified his vote on Straw with pretty much the same reason:

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I'll vote on Straw because voting on someone who isn't here seems like a classic elim move to get a free village kill.

If I was an elim, and the elim team was willing to go to such extreme lengths to try and save me, Asterion should honestly be one of the main suspects.

So overall, I'd been getting a net village vibe from him D1, and a definite elim vibe D2. There's also something else I've noticed:

Unlike Striker, Asterion also hasn't reacted to Aman's request for reads on a number of people. From striker I'm getting the impression that he is (at least trying to) keep notes and have opinions on people, while Asterion is playing far more reactively. Though a reactive play-style is NAI, most people that play that way do appear to have opinions on people other than the ones currently being considered for the lynch, and I'm really not getting that impression from Asterion. This suggests to me that he might be an elim that's just going with the flow, which elims, unlike villagers, can afford to do as long as none of their people are being voted on

So I'm going to vote on Asterion137 now. However, @StrikerEZ, I'd really like to see that big post you've been talking about, preferably before the start of the next day cycle if you can manage that. If you don't have time for everyone, just talking about a couple more people should allay some concerns and suspicions I have about you.

Edited June 29, 2017 by randuir

[Arinian]

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I know you didn't say any of that. I was taking the scenario to it's logical conclusion and asking you which you think is more likely. I get what you're saying about Lopen slowly approaching the vote, but I don't get how it's alignment indicative.

Maybe my understanding is wrong, but aren't elims like to hide behind someone's votes, conclusions, hide in mass? You pretty good player and even your suspicions without vote it's good place where to put vote, to hide(lets say it so), that what I think. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Arinian said:

 

Maybe my understanding is wrong, but aren't elims like to hide behind someone's votes, conclusions, hide in mass? You pretty good player and even your suspicions without vote it's good place where to put vote, to hide(lets say it so), that what I think. 

There's different strategies, but yes, that tends to be the norm. But there's a lot of other players guilty of that and worse. Like I said, Yitzi and Aster did the same thing, essentially. I just want to see you think about more players is all, really. You don't know what I do about Lopen that makes it 75% likely that he's town, so it's possible that I'm biased. I don't really think you're an elim trying to get him mislynched, since there's a few things you've said this game that make me lean in the direction of town. I just think you're tunneling on a pretty valuable player for us, and I'd like to resolve that tunnel without having to resort to my trump card.

[STINK he/him]

o yeah

Straw is still an elim

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

 

34 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

 

Are you suggesting that you wouldn't "admit" to being village when you're an elim?  Because if so, admitting it when you're village seems a really bad idea from a meta perspective...

You're right. I already did it for this game though, so after this game, even if I admit to being village, I might not be.

32 minutes ago, Arinian said:

What? No, I don't think that Yitzi is more villager then Lopen, for me they both on same level of suspicions I can say. And no, not cause he don't have unique reasons.

I will just quote myself from same post.

I don't like how this is happened, for me looked like Lopen was just waiting for better moment to vote. When he can be not blamed in lynch of villager.

I was waiting for a better moment to vote, because I didn't want my vote to be useless, but I didn't want to vote Straw or Rand, because I'm townreading them. And I think I'd have gotten plenty of blame if Yitzi turned out village from the way I tried to get him lynched.

As for this Day's lynch, I hate to be a sheep(and basically repeat exactly what Arinian is accusing me of), but I'd agree to a Yitzi or Asterion lynch. Maybe a Striker one, but I don't have any kind of read on him, whereas I've got a bad gut read on Yitzi and Asterion. So I'd have to go over Strikers posts some if people decided that they wanted to lynch him.

Why are the Neutrals voting Rand? Orlok? Joe? Do you guys really need to lynch him or something? I mean, not really trying to tell you that you can't vote him, but the village kinda needs the lynch to move forward and stuff. Rand isn't a terrible information lynch, but I'd prefer it if villagers actually had more of a part in it.

Well, Asterion has got 2 votes at this point. I suppose I'll add mine as well. I guess at this point, I could claim to be doing it out of self preservation.  Flash Asterion

[Arraenae]

I'll take a look at Asterion once I'm in a better position to do so. Hopefully, I can do some network analysis today, if I can find the right materials. >.< Mobiles suck.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

 

Why are the Neutrals voting Rand? Orlok? Joe? Do you guys really need to lynch him or something? I mean, not really trying to tell you that you can't vote him, but the village kinda needs the lynch to move forward and stuff. Rand isn't a terrible information lynch, but I'd prefer it if villagers actually had more of a part in it.

I'm surprised you haven't figured this out yet. I expected most players to not catch on, but it should be pretty obvious.

[STINK he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm surprised you haven't figured this out yet. I expected most players to not catch on, but it should be pretty obvious.

the bm

[Yitzi2]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm surprised you haven't figured this out yet. I expected most players to not catch on, but it should be pretty obvious.

You think it's the neutrals' favor to the elim in exchange for targeting Orlok?