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Posted

I don't understand the lynch on Aman atall. The only thing he's done that could be taken suspiciously is his defense of Randuir, and Village!Aman would also do that.

And either way, Randuir would be a better lynch simply because of activity. Aman is active, rand is less so.

Posted (edited)

StrikerEZ: Got some mixed feelings about Striker. My initial concern began when he expressed suspicion of Straw in his second post but never voted for him. This made me squint for two reasons: one, I believed that Straw was a mislynch waiting to happen. He tends to accumulate a lot of votes on D1 mostly due to his play style, and I had the same exact thoughts in MR21 that eliminators were trying to take advantage of that. Granted I was evil that game and Straw was town, but it was a valid point nonetheless (and, surprise, another eliminator lynched Straw that day). For two, it bothered me because generally when a player avoids voting for people they're "very suspicious of," I can't help but think they're A: evil and trying not to draw attention while perpetuating the village's suspicion of one of their own, or B: evil but a teammate is already voting there so the natural inclination to not "throw all their eggs in one basket" causes them to hang back. If B is true, one of Araris, Rae or Len would have to be evil, given the first voter, STINK, is neutral. That being said, Striker did the exact thing with Jondesu, a proven villager, in his very first post, then did it again with both Straw and Rand in his third, so it's become a trend. In his fourth post, the night had already began and Striker only posts to say "whoops I forgot to vote" and "I really don't like how Jondesu was lynched last minute." For the most part this is NAI because I feel exactly the same (I personally did not want the Jon lynch to happen, as I expressed in several posts), but 2 of the players involved in that lynch are confirmed neutrals, and the other three I am leaning villagers on, so in an evil!Striker world, this could be him directing suspicion at an all town last minute wagon.

Now, I haven't expressed all of this until now, but this is what I've been thinking about Striker for most of the night. The fact that him saying he's suspicious of people but not voting, and that those people also happen to be players that other's are expressing suspicion of,has become a reoccurring theme at this point. This can mean two different things. 1, he's a villager who's following popular opinion rather than trying to form his own, perhaps due to being relatively new, perhaps due to people's thoughts on those players being appealing or having merit (even if I disagree). 2, he's an eliminator who's going along with popular opinion in order to push mislynches without actually contributing to them so that he can avoid responsibility. In response to my vote and asking for his thoughts on Straw, Rand, Yitzi, Stick and Brightness, he talks a lot about how Straw created a lot of PMs but didn't really do much with them. He says that fact in addition to a few opening posts of Straw are the only things he believe are suspicious of Straw. As for Rand, he says his reaction to the neutrals is what makes him suspicious, but despite that, the sudden Jon lynch that effectively saved Rand at the end of D1, and the fact that he doesn't know what to make of his later posts, he's leaning town on him. He finishes the post saying he believes Brightness is a villager due to her efforts, but before that he says he hasn't developed any opinions on Yitzi or Stick, yet. @StrikerEZ, I would really appreciate it if you go over all of their posts soon and tell us all what you think.

Conclusion: Leaning evil due to following popular opinion, although I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, due to his activity not being that high and him sleeping through turnover, but I would really like it if he would start forming and expressing his own thoughts.

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted

Mm, I am still suspicious of Randuir, and think I will follow through with my original idea from D1. I will try and get some more analysis posted before the cycle ends, but things are a bit stressful atm so no promises.

May not be super active this cycle, as the house is a bit chaotic atm.

Posted (edited)

asterion137: Aster really hasn't said much this game. In his first post he only commented on having more than two players in a PM as excessive, but doesn't seem to believe it's suspicious himself. In his second, he says he'd prefer a Straw or STINK lynch to a vote based on pure gut, but is fine with either if no more leads present themselves. Like with Yitzi's soft defense of Straw I pointed out on D1, this made me wonder if Aster was on a team with Straw, although that's unlikely because he eventually votes for Straw after Straw joins the Randwagon, because "voting on someone who isn't here is a classic elim move." This is a reasonable progression, especially since in a previous post, he expresses doubt that evil!Rand would intentionally try to create a rift between the town & neutrals when he isn't able to be around to argue for it or if he didn't have an ally's support. He also reiterates what I said before that if Rand is evil and he dies, the eliminators would end up alienated immediately for the play, thus causing them to turn on the elims and probably cost them the game. Overall Aster's D1 play shows a consistent stream of thoughts, which makes me want to lean town, although I am offput by the fact that he has given 0 thoughts on anyone else but Straw, Rand and myself.

Speaking of, let's look at D2. He starts off voting for Rand saying he understands where Yitzi is coming from regarding Rand/Cloud/Myself. That being said, he hinges my alignment proving evil only if Rand is evil too, and later expresses that the last minute vote turnaround onto Jon looks like eliminators trying to save a teammate from D1 death. This bothers me because on D1, Aster already set the precedent of believing Rand is not evil, and in this very same post he says he's leaning town on me anyway. Compare this to his next vote, where he votes against me despite saying he thinks Rand is town and I am town, makes absolute zero sense. Add that to the fact that he ignored my pointing out that the last minute lynch on Jon implicates Yitzi as much, if not more than, Rand, in addition to my first post this turn where I asked him for his thoughts on Yitzi... it's hard not to look at this and assume something isn't right.

Conclusion: Aster's D1 looks pretty good to me due to progression, although I don't like how little he's said. His D2 looks terrible in comparison, however, although it's early enough that I think Aster can redeem himself.

@asterion137, please give us more thoughts on players, and explain how voting for two people you think are town just because one of them is defending the other makes any sense.


(4) randuirArraenaeOrlokTsubodaiA Joe in the BushCrimsn-Wolf

(3) AmanuensisYitzi2Seonid, asterion137

(2) The FlashThe Mighty Lopen_Stick_

(1) StrikerEZAmanuensis

(1) Yitzi2Paranoid King

(1) STINKEcthelion III

(1) The Mighty LopenThe Flash

(1) asterion137BrightnessRadiant,


Edited by Amanuensis
Fixed grammar and added tally
Posted

I've done a read-through of BR's posts. I haven't done as through a note-keeping as I've done for the flash, as in that case I'd be here all day, but overall I'm getting a village impression based on C1.  AN important reason for this is that she was quite early with giving impressions and opinions, and elims would probably try to wait it out a bit as they are going to have to at least partly fake these impressions, and this is easier to do when there are more people around that are already giving opinions.

I'd have preferred it if she'd provided justification fort he Jondesu vote when she made it, rather than after the day-cycle was already over, but I believe there was not inconsiderable time-pressure at that moment, so I can't really blame her for that.

There was something odd this cycle though:

On 6/28/2017 at 11:34 AM, BrightnessRadiant said:

Ahhhhhh ok...so maybe the elims did make a deal to help the thief's child...I just read the requirements for her win con again lol

So...the elims are trying to redeem themselves with the neutrals then lolz

This at first seemed to be a not-so-subtle insinuation that I am an elim, but she then later listed me as among her village reads. Could you explain this post a bit more, brightness?

 

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

And either way, Randuir would be a better lynch simply because of activity. Aman is active, rand is less so.

I assume you meant activity in comparison to Aman? By my count I've still got more than 30 posts.

Also, people should pay attention to see if Joe's vote is still on the board after the cycle is over. If it is, that means that the thief's ward was the one that protected Orlok last cycle, which might be useful information.

Posted
7 minutes ago, randuir said:
 

I've done a read-through of BR's posts. I haven't done as through a note-keeping as I've done for the flash, as in that case I'd be here all day, but overall I'm getting a village impression based on C1.  AN important reason for this is that she was quite early with giving impressions and opinions, and elims would probably try to wait it out a bit as they are going to have to at least partly fake these impressions, and this is easier to do when there are more people around that are already giving opinions.

I'd have preferred it if she'd provided justification fort he Jondesu vote when she made it, rather than after the day-cycle was already over, but I believe there was not inconsiderable time-pressure at that moment, so I can't really blame her for that.

There was something odd this cycle though:

This at first seemed to be a not-so-subtle insinuation that I am an elim, but she then later listed me as among her village reads. Could you explain this post a bit more, brightness?

 

I assume you meant activity in comparison to Aman? By my count I've still got more than 30 posts.

Also, people should pay attention to see if Joe's vote is still on the board after the cycle is over. If it is, that means that the thief's ward was the one that protected Orlok last cycle, which might be useful information.

Emphasis mine.

If it's pertinent to you right now, I know the answers to both of these questions already.

That being said, what are your thoughts on Striker and Aster? You and I are off the table for today's lynch, for obvious reasons, and while Flash hasn't yet escaped my PoE, he's closer to a townlean than others. Besides Yitzi, those are the only two players I'd probably vote for today.

Posted
7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

By the way, @TheMightyLopen, @The Flash, @_Stick_: I'm relatively certain all three of you are town, so I would advise not voting for each other :P 

I'm a bit wary of both, actually :ph34r:. Flash more than Lopen, I haven't looked at Lopen's posts yet.  Another person who's posts I want to analyse is BR.

@asterion137 Going through all those spoilers on mobile was torture just saying :P

About these Aman and Rand lynches...I dunno. I don't think that getting one of their alignments confirmed is going to give us much of a headway on the other's. If we lynch Aman and he flips elim, then the possibilities are that A, Elim!Aman pocketing and B, Wilson's tinfoil theory. In the case on Aman flipping Village, Rand could literally be any alignment. If we lynch Rand -oh look ninja'd by Rand- and he flips elim, there'd be a chance of Aman being evil but then again evil people don't defend their partners so openly but then tinfoil. Bah. If Rand flips Village, Aman could be literally any alignment. I personally don't think Aman is evil but who knows. I mean he did something in the championship like 'I could def pull off this top-villager thing even when I'm evil' and I've seen him do it in...MR18? Yeah. Just checked. but like. :thonk:

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That being said, what are your thoughts on Striker and Aster? You and I are off the table for today's lynch, for obvious reasons, and while Flash hasn't yet escaped my PoE, he's closer to a townlean than others. Besides Yitzi, those are the only two players I'd probably vote for today.

I'm currently working on a post giving more detailed impressions on them. given that that means I'm going to have to compile the notes on them first, this might take a while.

I'd prefer to hear the answer to both my questions from the people themselves, if you don't mind, Aman :P . I'm pretty sure the thief's ward protected Orlok, but it's always better to check, and the answer Brightness gives might be alignment indicative in some way (or not, but only one way to find out).

Edited by randuir
slight clarification
Posted
Just now, randuir said:
 

I'm currently working on a post giving more detailed impressions on them. given that that means I'm going to have to compile the notes on them first, this might take a while.

I'd prefer to hear the answer to both these from the people themselves, if you don't mind, Aman :P . I'm pretty sure the thief's ward protected Orlok, but it's always better to check.

Well the second one isn't really a question for a specific player, since you're waiting to see if Joe's vote will count (it will).

Posted
1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Well the second one isn't really a question for a specific player, since you're waiting to see if Joe's vote will count (it will).

Yeah, true, but I think you know what i mean. I'd rather not assume a certain mechanical occurrence has happened because it makes the most sense, as I know of at least one case in which it almost ended badly for me.

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, randuir said:
 
 

Yeah, true, but I think you know what i mean. I'd rather not assume a certain mechanical occurrence has happened because it makes the most sense, as I know of at least one case in which it almost ended badly for me.

Well let's just say I'm not assuming and leave it at that :P but don't let me distract you any more.

Edited by Amanuensis
Added second sentence
Posted

Nice... I just woke up and what I see Chaos. I don't understand votes for Rand cause as I said that obviously he's not gonna do something like what he done if he was elim. If someone don't believes me he\she can go and look on Rand's behavior in LG30, in LG30 Rand was elim.

For votes on Aman, I can understand what caused them. Aman uses cardinally opposite playstyle, which looks like he is not very involved in game, and all this "OOHH's, smiles everywhere" don't make him to look better. So he just annoying me as Stink right now, but I don't think he is elim.

I will vote for Lopen right now. Sorry Lopen but I don't have better leads right now. 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Arinian said:
 
 

Nice... I just woke up and what I see Chaos. I don't understand votes for Rand cause as I said that obviously he's not gonna do something like what he done if he was elim. If someone don't believes me he\she can go and look on Rand's behavior in LG30, in LG30 Rand was elim.

For votes on Aman, I can understand what caused them. Aman uses cardinally opposite playstyle, which looks like he is not very involved in game, and all this "OOHH's, smiles everywhere" don't make him to look better. So he just annoying me as Stink right now, but I don't think he is elim.

I will vote for Lopen right now. Sorry Lopen but I don't have better leads right now. 

I don't think any of the votes on me were caused by the OOOs and smilies :P I'd also say I'm more involved in this game than any other player, both activity wise and analysis wise. I don't exactly understand why Lopen is suspicious. Have you already explained this? I can't remember.

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
Just now, Amanuensis said:

I don't think any of the votes on me were caused by the OOOs and smilies :P I'd also say I'm more involved in this game than any other player, both activity wise and analysis wise. I don't exactly understand why Lopen is suspicious. Have you already explained this? I can't remember.

I explained that, on night cycle.

Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Arinian said:

I explained that, on night cycle.

I'll check it out. Although I will say I have one very good reason to believe Lopen isn't evil, although it's one that involves sensitive information I'd prefer not to reveal until tonight.

Edited by Amanuensis
left out an n't
Posted
Just now, Amanuensis said:

I'll check it out. Although I will say I have one very good reason to believe Lopen isn't evil, although it's one that involves sensitive information I'd prefer not to reveal until tonight.

You already checked it earlier and that what you said:

Quote

Re: Lopen's Vote on Yitzi: I think Lopen's progression of opinion is pretty good, honestly. I just think I beat him to the punch in stating what's peculiar about Yitzi. Lopen is definitely a player I'd revisit in the future, but I've got a town read on him for now.

Re: Other Gut Reads: I don't really think any read is trash, even if I prefer ones with reasoning. I've also realized that trying to articulate the thoughts that are harder for us to express tend to be a lot more alignment indicative than ones that are obviously observable / commonly interpreted. No harm in trying, at least.

EDIT: These comments directed at @Arinian but apply universally.

Aman are you drunken? :D

Posted
Just now, Arinian said:
 

You already checked it earlier and that what you said:

Aman are you drunken? :D

Not drunk, no. Just didn't remember this :P 

Posted (edited)

....Stop posting people! You're getting my post deleted!

Anyway, I was going to talk about @StrikerEZ.

He starts his first post with a claim of inexperience, but he then provides reasonable advice for the various allomantic roles. He also says the following about Jondesu:

Quote

I'm not sure who I'm suspicious of yet, though Jon always seems suspicious to me (I don't know why, just the way he posts).

Which means he's apparently experienced enough to recognize an inherent bias against Jondesu. This makes me wonder whether he only included that first line to use as a shield in case any of his advice was perceived as bad, which is more an elim thing to do in my opinion.

His next non-RP post in Day 1 contains a summary of the previous pages and his opinions on the various things that have occurred. This post gives me a slight village vibe overall, but I'd have liked it if he'd explained more why he thinks STINK ans Straw where bad lynch targets.

His only post during the night is him stating that he didn't like the Jondesu lynch. he also makes his first reference to his big analysis post. Overall, this post is NAI, but I do find it odd that about 3 days later we still haven't seen much of this post he mentioned, epsecially since he seemed to think that he could have finished it before the end of D1 if he didn't need sleep.

In D2 he responds to Aman's prompt to provide his thoughts on a number of players. His suspicion of Straw is reasonable, but he doesn't really bring any new insights to the table (NAI), He skips over stick and Yitzi, and says that he'll treat them alter in his ellusive big post. However, his write-up on me strike me as odd:

18 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

As for Rand...I'm still not sure. I feel suspicious of him, just because he really seemed to be going hard on the neutrals D1, though I'm not sure what to make of his later posts. Mainly a neutral/slight village read for me.

Based on what he states here, I'd have expected him to classify me as Neutral or Neutral/slightly elim. This makes me wonder whether he was trying to mollify Aman by rating me more positive than I should be based on his explanation. And yes, I know I'm complaining about someone saying he thinks I'm probably not evil, but the rating just doesn't seem to match his explanation.

Overall, I'm getting a slight Elim vibe from Striker.

I'll get to asterion next, either in an edit to this post, or in a new post.

Edited by randuir
Posted (edited)
Quote
 
 

Sooo... whom I suspecting.

I honestly don't have any good suspects... from my point of view all previous turn was absolute trash. Half of cycle people was debating whom to kill Stink or Straw(When nor Stink nor Straw done something something suspicious). Second part of cycle was about Rand and Joe and all discussion was based on "Is Joe doing something bad" or "Rand is alienating neutrals".  And then all ended with lynch on Jondesu... why and how?... who knows not me.

Okay, I really don't have any solid suspicions(That's night 1right now from where I should get solid suspicions? "shrug"), but atleast will say what I think about some players:

Lopen. I will just point what caught attention in his posts.

  Quote

I've gotta go to church for now, but when I get back, I'll place my vote somewhere(probably Yitzi or Stick, unless another lynch pops up that I agree with somewhat).

I quoted... you will see further why I quoted that.

  Quote

Okay, so we've got 5 hours left, but since rollover is in the middle of the night for a lot of us, I don't think the thread will be very active that late(I'll probably be around honestly, but no promises :P). Anyways, my point is that if we're gonna move the lynch somewhere, you should probably get your thoughts in the thread as soon as possible so others have a chance to see them and consider them.

These votes on randuir are really surprising to me. Like, I get the point that alienating Neutrals from the village is not a good thing to do, but it seems like a rookie mistake to make as an elim, and I don't consider randuir a rookie(his first game he was an elim and pretty much everyone trusted him >>).

And that his first post after he came back. As you can see he didn't placed vote. Honestly most of his posts for D1 looked for me like fillers. Also his words about moving lynch... I think it can be interpreted as slight preparing for saving someone from lynch(you know... one word there another there).

  Quote

Well, I sure don't feel as strongly about Rand being town as Aman seems to feel. And you know I love tinfoil. :P I wouldn't think that Rand would intentionally make a mistake like alienating the Neutrals though, so if it is the case that both of them are elims, I'd think that Aman was just trying to save his teammate by doing what you suggest. This could also be good cover for why both of them wouldn't die to the elim kill as well, since everyone would always be unsure about them because of this, so they could say the elims wouldn't want to kill them since they're under suspicion. But yeah, tinfoil. :P

Okay, I think it's time to explain my idea... I know it's absolute scratch but from what I've seen I got feeling that Rand and Lopen can be teammates(and this Lopen's post can be just distancing). Yeah there looks like Lopen not  cares about if Rand will be lynched or not, he even didn't throw his vote. But after Aman's post:

  Quote

Aman, want to lynch Yitzi then? I'm cool with that. Yitzi. I guess if this lynch doesn't work out, I might actually consider voting Straw, mostly because I do find the pile up on Rand weird, like there's some eliminator involvement, and the obvious answer is that it's to save Straw.

Lopen hastly throws vote on Yitzi. Looks like nice way to save teammate from lynch, safe and nice. And his reason of weird bandwagon on Rand looks flimsy, cause on my opinion bandwagon on Rand obviously formed as back reaction on Rand's push on neutrals(if mind don't lies to me most of votes on Rand were thrown after Willson's words about "neutrals not villagers". So maybe Lopen atleast particulary right... hmm... "shrug", cause situation close to one about which I talking right now). 

And there goes Lopen's reasoning for vote on Yitzi:

  Quote

Okay, I quoted all of his posts, but honestly I'm really not sure after reading all of his posts and there wasn't a lot to respond to so I deleted all of them except that one above because I had to set the record straight. :P

Ummm, I think his reasoning for defending Straw was a little strange, and I didn't agree with his reasons for voting Rand(although I think I can see it coming from a villager). It's just, I'm not sure if he's trying to take advantage of the situation to get rid of Rand, or he genuinely thought he was the PO and it was a good idea to lynch him. Besides that, him switching his read of Rand to Neutral/maybe elim to Neutral/probably village is a little strange, since he seemed to have changed his mind solely from Aman defending Rand. That's pretty much the whole case against Yitzi.

Okay, so Lopen's reasons to vote on Yitzi: 1)Strange defending of Straw. 2) Strange reasons for voting on Rand.

You know I not gonna bother myself too much and will just copy Aman's reasons to suspect Yitzi(will just say that Lopen's reasons to vote for Yitzi looks familiar... hmm... where I've seen them earlier):

  Quote

Yitzi: Just read all his posts. Seems okay on the surface, but he's been defending Straw without actually defending him, which is odd. For example, his first post of the game is him responding to Araris' vote with "Aren't a lot of PMs good for the village?" but he doesn't necessarily say Straw is village. Could be their teammates together. Could be a teammate of his was already voting for Straw so he wanted to stay away from it. Could even be that he expected Straw to get lynched and just didn't want to deal with the fallout, but either way, it feels off to me. I do like that he's asking quite a few questions, but I don't like that he hasn't shared any opinions of the players so far (discounting Rand), and I really don't get his logic of voting for Rand in the first place, which I already talked about. I wish I could give him credit for reevaluating Rand, but an elim would probably want to back off of Rand anyway, given my hard defense / vocalization that I'm suspicious of people trying to kill him. Conclusion: leaning evil. @Yitzi2, can you give me your thoughts on at least five different players, as well as Straw (so 6 total).

So, conclusions: atleast guilty in not having his own opinion for voting on someone.(of course different people can have same reasons for voting on someone, but sequence of how all is happened mostly makes me suspect Lopen. He was saying that he suspecting Yitzi earlier than Aman but didn't vote till there was good situation for that). If Lopen is elim I think Rand can be too(I want to say that I'm not suspecting Rand he looks  villagy enough, but if Lopen is elim I think chances for Rand to be elims is high).

So you're suspicious of Lopen because he didn't have a unique reason for voting Yitzi, and you believe he was trying to save Rand's life. For that first part, don't you think that applies to everyone who voted for Straw, Rand, and Jon as well (after the initial votes)? Why focus on Lopen and not any of them? Do I take it you believe that Yitzi is a villager? If so, why does he seem more good than Lopen does?

Edited by Amanuensis
Added text in parenthesis for clarification
Posted
2 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

The only thing he's done that could be taken suspiciously is his defense of Randuir, and Village!Aman would also do that.

Please explain.  Why would Village!Aman have such a kneejerk defense of Randuir?

Posted
Just now, Yitzi2 said:

Please explain.  Why would Village!Aman have such a kneejerk defense of Randuir?

Because I firmly believe that Rand isn't evil and that lynching him is a bad idea. Pretty simple, really.

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Because I firmly believe that Rand isn't evil and that lynching him is a bad idea. Pretty simple, really.

Why so very firmly that there's such an intense reaction?

If you are village, I really do want to understand your reason, as I simply cannot see any legitimate basis for being that extremely certain.

10 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Have fun with that. Or, ya'know, I could save you the trouble by just admitting I'm village. ;)

Are you suggesting that you wouldn't "admit" to being village when you're an elim?  Because if so, admitting it when you're village seems a really bad idea from a meta perspective...

Edited by Yitzi2
Posted
Just now, Yitzi2 said:
 

Why so very firmly that there's such an intense reaction?

If you are village, I really do want to understand your reason, as I simply cannot see any legitimate basis.

Pretty sure I explained how Rand proved himself a villager D1 already.

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