StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 @Kasimir Even with TUO's LoW claim, we're still missing the sixth defense point. It would be really interesting to know when the Specialization granting happens. @Araris Valerian care to tell us if you got the Warding Specialization? If you didn't, you don't have to tell us which of the others you got.
Illwei Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, TJ Shade said: Ninja'd by like 10 posts -.- Smh read faster :P. /s Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei /s
Kasimir he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, StrikerEZ said: @Kasimir Even with TUO's LoW claim, we're still missing the sixth defense point. It would be really interesting to know when the Specialization granting happens. @Araris Valerian care to tell us if you got the Warding Specialization? If you didn't, you don't have to tell us which of the others you got. [OOC: Yeah, just realised. Even if Araris wasn't granted Warding, he could easily have started with it as he didn't Ward the camp N1. In a way, you could say this confirms that neither TUO nor I have it ]
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Kasimir said: [OOC: Yeah, just realised. Even if Araris wasn't granted Warding, he could easily have started with it as he didn't Ward the camp N1. In a way, you could say this confirms that neither TUO nor I have it ] TUO defended N1? I can't remember if they did. If so, yeah, then it does confirm that. Well...yeah, because you also defended N1 as well. So yeah, okay, I understand now.
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TJ Shade said: Let me just completely my thought there which was interrupted because I ran away with my idea. :P. @Ashbringer, because this was a reply to you. I was going to say "I swear I'm going to be so annoyed if I get the Shadowblaze and you snatch it from me for RP reasons" :P. And then I thought - "at least let me get cleared and then you can snatch it". And then I thought, "we can use that to clear you too" and then so on and ran with the idea :P. ... I had a thought here, and then I just realized I can use "RP Reasons" like everyone used "PM Reasons" xD It might work. Depends how many items the people who get it get.
Burnt Spaghetti she/her Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: 1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said: @Burnt Spaghetti, who voted to save Matrim D1 but not D2 Burnt is also sort of suspicious, for similar reasons to Matrim, but she isn't on my village list. I'm not sure she fits the no N1 kill profile (I'm assuming this was intentional), but the inconsistent stance toward Matrim is weird. In all honesty, I basically didn't read D2 thread, p sure I didn't post either. Didn't even notice Matrim was up again. Would I have done any defending? I dunno, maybe but like, leaving my vote to rng of whoever tags me first I imagine people wouldn't like continued past d1 I have been bad at activity and am accepting poke votes to pay attention
Kasimir he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: It might work. Depends how many items the people who get it get. [OOC: This. The fact both the Thief and Revocation only steal random items is a serious crimp in any plan that requires precise targeting involving items.]
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Kasimir said: [OOC: This. The fact both the Thief and Revocation only steal random items is a serious crimp in any plan that requires precise targeting involving items.] I mean, the crabs are a thing too...and they tell you every single item someone has. It's not like we'd be completely at a loss for information.
Illwei Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: ... I had a thought here, and then I just realized I can use "RP Reasons" like everyone used "PM Reasons" xD Meaning you shouldn't? :P. (please? ;-;) 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: [OOC: This. The fact both the Thief and Revocation only steal random items is a serious crimp in any plan that requires precise targeting involving items.] I mean could like, just give it to the thief? :P. Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei
|TJ| he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Illwei said: Smh read faster :P. /s I was typing too -.- :P. 5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: ... I had a thought here, and then I just realized I can use "RP Reasons" like everyone used "PM Reasons" xD Yeahhh, I thought about that too. xD Though RP reasons may be a loooot less excusable than PM reasons xD Edit: Just now, Illwei said: could like, just give it to the thief? :P. Lmaooo what kinda thief would they be? xD They could be a con man o.O Edited February 5, 2021 by TJ Shade
Kasimir he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, StrikerEZ said: I mean, the crabs are a thing too...and they tell you every single item someone has. It's not like we'd be completely at a loss for information. [OOC: They are, and I've previously said on p.1 of this thread that they should be used to make sense of which strategy - hoarding or denial - Evil is playing for. If I haven't said it in threads, I've probably already said this in every active PM I have. My point is just that if we're expecting the Thief to precision-acquire the Shadowblaze to exit the game with it, yeah, that's not gonna happen. 1 minute ago, Illwei said: I mean could like, just give it to the thief? :P. That's my point, yes. That if we want it to go to the Thief for sure, we kind of have to yeet it at them. Similarly, if you want someone to return the Shadowblaze and they refuse, your options are kind of going to be limited beyond a CM, as both the Thief and Revocation are chancy. Not sure why you're bringing this up.]
Illwei Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: That's my point, yes. That if we want it to go to the Thief for sure, we kind of have to yeet it at them. Similarly, if you want someone to return the Shadowblaze and they refuse, your options are kind of going to be limited beyond a CM, as both the Thief and Revocation are chancy. Not sure why you're bringing this up.] That point was not clear :P. at least to me :P.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 I think I'm going to place a preliminary vote on Ventyl. Mostly because I am going to be busy tomorrow, and want to make sure I remember to place a vote. Planning on spending tomorrow night hanging out with my girlfriend, so I probably won't be on very much for the last 6-7 hours or so because of classes and when I'd be hanging out with her. As for why, I think it is odd that he decided to use the vote manip in the way he did. Not sure what I think the intent was, but it does give me odd vibes. If he flips elim, I say we take a look at Illwei again.
Illwei Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: As for why, I think it is odd that he decided to use the vote manip in the way he did. Not sure what I think the intent was, but it does give me odd vibes. If he flips elim, I say we take a look at Illwei again. I- Yall realize- I legit just corrected Archer on this- He removed my vote from Matrim. Suspicious that he withheld info for a bit? yeah, kinda. Sus because of the action? ehhhhhh a teeeny bit I guess? Implicates me? In what way??? Flattered though, that you keep wanting to focus on me :P. Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei
Ashbringer he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Village Vote manip confuses me. On one hand, yes. On the other, no.
Illwei Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) Just now, Ashbringer said: Village Vote manip confuses me. On one hand, yes. On the other, no. ?? Please Elaborate? Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei
Illwei Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Ashbringer said: Now you share my confusion What a village agenda I sense from you yes >> I agree with Devo on the vote manip thing, but also feel like it's different in this game :P. I think that if you feel strongly enough to kill someone, then that should be strong enough to make sure of it. Ventyl outwardly trusted Mat a lot more than me, wanted me dead. so him using his vote manip isn't Elim-y, isolated :P.
STINK he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 I'm still waiting to have the shadowblaze handed to me here
Gears Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: @Gears and @The Unknown Order, who haven't yet voted. Gears in particular stands out, since he isn't new I'm actually pretty suspicious of Gears at this point. I'm pretty sure the lack of a N1 kill fits his profile, and the lack of votes isn't helping the village. C1: I don't usually vote here. C2: I returned late, the general populace had orchestrated the tie, and I didn't really suspect either Illwei or Matrim. Why does the lack of a N1 kill fit me? While theoretically advantageous, it squanders an opportunity to take out potential village leaders [like yourself] who would never be X-ed given enough time. Sidenote: Not NK'ing N1 is not the only possibility, and I believe Quinn being attacked then was discussed [Lantern, Specialization, LoF, then no chalk C2]. Sidenote: I have not been very engaged with this game. Usually I'd do some sort of vote analysis or something. The hot potato plan is non-viable for many reasons that have been pointed out by a number of people, but mainly because forcibly taking the Shadowblaze is nonviable, verifying the Shadowblaze is nonviable, and benevolence is nonviable. Do not attempt it if/when the Shadowblaze comes into play.
Condensation she/her Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: I mean, the crabs are a thing too...and they tell you every single item someone has. It's not like we'd be completely at a loss for information. *raises hand* Yes, I have one of those! People thought I wasn't being smart or was the thief or something, but I was just being smart! I mean, that was definitely my intention when I grabbed the Crab.
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 8 hours ago, Illwei said: I- Yall realize- I legit just corrected Archer on this- He removed my vote from Matrim. Suspicious that he withheld info for a bit? yeah, kinda. Sus because of the action? ehhhhhh a teeeny bit I guess? Implicates me? In what way??? Flattered though, that you keep wanting to focus on me :P. Bold Underline mine. I actually put it into my RP that I used chalk last night. So, I wasn’t withholding information, I just didn’t say it outright.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 I do not have the Warding specialization.
Archer he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 I cn confirm I didn't give Araris Warding. Re-doing my analysis from last night because I messed up. -TJ bribed my vote on Illwei to be on Matrim. Looking at this, there’s actually no proof TJ bribed, but it was a quick, bold lie if it was one. -Illwei cancelled my vote on them that had been bribed to Matrim -Ventyl cancelled Illwei’s vote on Matrim. Ventyl did say, in RP the night after “She’d used her Rithmatic abilities to insure the indecision of the group would truly be left up to fate.” I’d missed that earlier. I appreciate them claiming it promptly. I still don’t think it was a valid reason, as Illwei and Mat’s self pres lines would have cancelled each other out and any other manipulation would have been enlightening, but at least they aren’t hiding it. TJ and Illwei cancelled each other out to Illwei’s potential detriment. Therefore not e/e. If they were all elims, the effect was a tie with Illwei on the line when they had one to begin with without wasting three resources. Therefore not e/e/e. TJ and Ventyl’s actions alone would still result in Matrim’s exe, but make Ventyl look good from their flip. However, it makes TJ look bad for protecting Illwei and hurting Mat, so I’m skeptical they’d hedge their bets like this. Probably not e/e Ventyl and Illwei doesn’t make sense because Ventyl’s cancel could have gotten Illwei killed. It was reasonable for lone v!Illwei to assume Mat would self pres and try to counter it. Lone elim!Illwei would also want to self pres. V!TJ has been consistently pro Illwei, anti Mat, so their bribe makes sense. Lone elim!TJ would have gotten Mat killed and framed Illwei, which does make sense. V!Ventyl tried to save Mat, a flipped villager, which looks good in retrospect. Lone Elim!Ventyl manipulating a v/v vote would have gotten Illwei killed. The goal being to frame Matrim, I guess? My elim!preference would be to let the tie happen naturally and then sus the survivor, or kill Matrim because the case is easier against Illwei. I don’t like them saying they wanted balance by breaking a tie, but I’m struggling to see the evil goal. TL;DR, none of TJ, Illwei, and Ventyl are elim teammates, based on their vote manipulation. None of their actions taken solo are distinguishable from what village!them would do, which the possible exception of Ventyl. TJ had the option to claim a failed grab or the Defense as one higher than it was and said they drew a LoW, instead of saying they bribed. Claiming it looks villagey because they accept responsibility for Matrim’s death. My elim suspicions on them counted on them being teammates with Illwei, and I no longer think that’s the case. Ventyl could also have concealed their manip to make Illwei look bad. There was the risk a scanner saw them do it, but if that was a concern, they could have done nothing to the vote and grabbed an item instead. I’m not ready to exe them on the sole basis of this manip anymore. (I am not considering their other posts in this analysis, so if they’ve said something elimmy I see later this may change.) Illwei had no teammates help them out, which either means they thought the tie would remain intact and were feeling lucky, were willing to cut them loose, or she’s not an elim. For this reason I am losing confidence in my assessment of them as an elim, but will not discount the fact that a successful CW on Matrim popped up in under three hours to at least give them a chance. Devotary is either e/e with Illwei or believes they are not an elim. Despite knowing I was the Non, they didn’t vote on Illwei, and when it was between Illwei and Mat, they chose Mat. However, Devo doesn’t vote early or often much anyway. TJ is another solid Illwei supporter, but not an elim teammate. Striker was dead wrong about the Quinn-Matrim-Illwei team theory. That looks bad, but hey, I’ve been advocating for Illwei’s exe too. Would the elim team hit Quinn and risk highlighting how wrong elim!Striker was? Probably not. Would elim!Illwei want to do it to make v!Striker look bad and themselves look good? Yeah, that’s a possibility. Mat’s flip helps my D1 theory that the elims were happy about the v/v(/v), so they sat on their votes and let what happened happen. This about five of them, surely at least one of the group voted. The classic elim move would be to be the second or third person on the wagon, but I’ll mention the whole list: FlyingBooks, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade, Devotary of Spontaneity The only hole there is that Gears has been acting suspicious, so they might actually be an elim. But in that case, it looks even worse to have voted for Matrim, because it protects an elim! I still think most of the people who moved to the Dannex CW were villagers because it was too bold for an elim to do on D1. If I think Illwei is an elim, Devo looks sus, but Illwei is the better info kill, so I reserve the right to switch to them after I have an epiphany. TJ I’ve got a village read on now. Striker I have a small reason to believe is village, so I’ll tag the fourth person: Ventyl Flyingbooks
StrikerEZ he/him Posted February 5, 2021 Posted February 5, 2021 Well...I guess I made my vote on Ventyl too hastily last night. I mixed up who he used his vote manip on. And also completely missed the fact he had already claimed a line of Silencing during N2 apparently. I'm not sure who to vote for. Let me think through who I'm suspicious of...Illwei (though far less than I used to be, I'm still paranoid the elims' kill choice was an attempt to frame me/make Illwei look good. I'm almost certainly just tunnelingn on them at this point, so I'm trying to not think about them ), Devotary, Gears (both of these two are people I think could be behind not killing anyone on N1: Devotary being pragmatic enough to see the advantage and Gears being chaotic enough to come up with it in the first place), maybe Flyingbooks (they seem to be hanging on the edge of the game for the most part). Not sure who else I would think likely to be an elim, but these are players I'd be willing to shrek today.
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