Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Sart he/him]

Emergency rule clarification:

Quote

What happens if a Specialized Line of Making targets someone who attempts, but fails, to grab an item from the Supply?

With Specialized Lines of Making, you will be told exactly what your target did. In this case, you would be informed that they tried to grab an item, but failed. If your target is roleblocked by normal Lines of Vigor, you will be told they were roleblocked, and what action they were trying to do. If your target was hit by upgraded Lines of Vigor, you will be told what your target attempted to do, but will not learn they were roleblocked.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, to make something clear that should’ve been pretty obvious: I grabbed the clock. I was trying to keep it a secret so that the elims (and Thief) wouldn’t know to try and take it from me. Given that I suspect Gears of being an elim, trying to hide it is pointless now. I’ve suspected him for awhile now (primarily because he fits the profile for the events of N1-both for if there was no kill and if they hit Quinn and decided to go again N2), and this is a very odd move to me. Why out me to literally everyone without consulting me first? If he was a villager, he just painted a target on my back for no reason. If he’s an elim, he’s already got a target on me himself and would be looking for a way to take me out. So, he sees I lied and takes an opportunity. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by StrikerEZ

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, to make something that should’ve been pretty obvious: I grabbed the clock. I was trying to keep it a secret so that the elims (and Thief) wouldn’t know to try and take it from me. Given that I suspect Gears of being an elim, trying to hide it is pointless now. I’ve suspected him for awhile now (primarily because he fits the profile for the events of N1-both for if there was no kill and if they hit Quinn and decided to go again N2), and this is a very odd move to me. Why out me to literally everyone without consulting me first? If he was a villager, he just painted a target on my back for no reason. If he’s an elim, he’s already got a target on me himself and would be looking for a way to take me out. So, he sees I lied and takes an opportunity. 

Yep, agreed, Gears I don't have anything else to add.

[Kasimir he/him]

Wei was dead, too.

Duncan shook his head. It was happening all over again. He supposed Wei's death could have been to silence a fairly active and contributive voice, as the Forgotten continued to strive for a stranglehold over what was being said. While Wei had still been suspected, and close to being court-martialed, he was worth keeping alive. And yet the situation interested Duncan, a little. Shimamura Sakura and Faleast had both seemed to doubt that Wei was a Rithmatist. Their reasons had not convinced Duncan, and he had wondered if they seemed to be trying a little too hard. The key question was if it was simple tunnel vision, or something more malicious at work. It seemed the Forgotten didn't think that Wei would be controversial enough to be worth keeping alive. Or perhaps Wei had whispered something unwise in an aside the previous night. Duncan did know that Wei had asked a group of them about whether Evan could be a front, with Kaniae or someone else being the actual Non-Rithmatist, possibly seeking out conversion. Wei had even wondered if Evan was really Forgotten, with the Non-Rithmatist having brokered a deal with them. (He didn't think this was the reason for Wei's death. After all, there had been six of them in the group - five now. It wasn't worth killing for.)

Duncan wasn't sure about that idea. It was good to keep a little paranoia, but Wei was sometimes prone to going a little too far off on paranoia. The issue was, if Evan was merely a front, then the actual Non-Rithmatist seemed to have trusted Evan from the first day, and Evan had trusted them too, despite not receiving any proof, especially since Kaniae had also claimed to be the recipient of a specialisation. The main way Duncan could see this working out involved the Non-Rithmatist teaching a specialisation to Kaniae, and verifying their identity to Evan as a go-between by telling Evan to confirm that Kaniae had received a specialisation. But this was strange, wasn't it? If the Non-Rithmatist trusted Evan so much, why not simply teach Evan a specialisation too? Duncan didn't think Wei's thought was impossible - certainly, TJ seemed to be mulling over the idea as well, but he currently ascribed it low probability.

Blackbane's reticence was not unexpected but a little difficult to work with. But Duncan understood, as well. [OOC: I get the work contingencies thing, all the best, Sarge!  Hope you'll join us in getting rid of Forgotten together after that in our playstyle reversals.]

Now though, there was the fight between the Servant and Frederick, but Duncan was more suspicious of Atreco, with how swiftly Atreco had shown up in support of Frederick against the Servant. In truth, Duncan suspected all three of them (and didn't it hurt, the thought he didn't know if he could trust his little brother?) with the result that he was uncertain about where he wanted to go. For the moment, he would lean into his suspicions of Atreco. Perhaps with time, he could re-assess his position.

[OOC: Ninjaed so many times...Only one post in this thread when I started  Playing this game laidback is starting to take its toll on me. But I must be strong. I must.]

[Random Bystander she/her]

Grace was panicking. People all around her we're dying, and she could be next. What if they vote to kill me today? I can't die yet! I'm not ready to die!"

[Mist she/her]

hmmmm as i think about it im fairly sure only one of gears and striker is elim, if one of them is. but i think it could also be that neither of them is elim. hmmmm if there's a question of which one is more sus which would i think...

i guess id say i think that neither is elim, but if i had to pick one, id say striker would be the one id pick. right now, that is. but rng decreed gears and im not sure i want to go down the rabbit hole of analysis or making decisions like that hmmm. except wait striker was organizing book grabbing. except it could all be for village cred. hmmm maybe not idk. ill say slightly more sus on striker for now but its close.

oh also bystander, im guessing youre not anywhere on the docket currently unless lots of manip happens. so i think you should be fine.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Frederick hated the way his brother looked at him sometimes. He only really knew inklings of what Duncan had been through before he’d arrived at the frontlines. And he did know about Duncan’s nightmares and his alcoholism and, well, his overall current state of mind.

But that didn’t make the distrustful stares any less hurtful. Did Duncan...did Duncan really think Frederick could be a Forgotten? What else could those sharp stares during Duncan’s moments of lucidity mean? The moments when Duncan didn’t think Frederick knew Duncan was watching him. The moments when Duncan would completely ignore Frederick. 

But Frederick would be strong. He had to. For his brother. It was the least he could do. So he tried to figure out who the Forgotten really were. He suspected that lunatic who called himself the Servant of the Mad God or something was a Forsaken. Plus there was the odd mannerisms of Kaniae and the things that they had said. Beyond that, Frederick wasn’t sure anymore. All of the people he’d suspected of being Forgotten had ended up dead.

~

@Kasimir I am confused why you’re more suspicious of TUO than Gears.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

44 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Kasimir I am confused why you’re more suspicious of TUO than Gears.

I sort of agree with Kas here. Gears is suspicious for the reasons you gave, but TUO jumping on Gears feels very opportunistic. While I agree that Gears probably could have reacted better, I also think there is some justification for a strong reaction to your dishonesty (which is noticeable, if not obvious, in retrospect). In fact, I think your reaction to Gears is also a bit opportunistic. I think elim!Gears would have thought out things more. I’ll stick my vote on Striker for now, and think Striker/TUO could be e/e.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well, we got items, so Random must have used their map. Unless Archer did. (Are you planning to use that today, Archer?)

Slightly concerned that Unknown Order forgot to put in their Map action but... uh... I'm not one to talk 

I think Connie did join some of the trains not on Gears, but I'll have to go back and look. Rather busy today/tomorrow.

[Random Bystander she/her]

8 hours ago, Mist said:

hmmmm as i think about it im fairly sure only one of gears and striker is elim, if one of them is. but i think it could also be that neither of them is elim. hmmmm if there's a question of which one is more sus which would i think...

i guess id say i think that neither is elim, but if i had to pick one, id say striker would be the one id pick. right now, that is. but rng decreed gears and im not sure i want to go down the rabbit hole of analysis or making decisions like that hmmm. except wait striker was organizing book grabbing. except it could all be for village cred. hmmm maybe not idk. ill say slightly more sus on striker for now but its close.

oh also bystander, im guessing youre not anywhere on the docket currently unless lots of manip happens. so i think you should be fine.

Oh. That was purely for the RP. I love making my characters stay in character. It brings me joy. I had to RP something, and it just felt right. I'm not actually that worried about getting voted out.

[STINK he/him]

I'm irked

[Random Bystander she/her]

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Well, we got items, so Random must have used their map. Unless Archer did. (Are you planning to use that today, Archer?)

Slightly concerned that Unknown Order forgot to put in their Map action but... uh... I'm not one to talk 

I think Connie did join some of the trains not on Gears, but I'll have to go back and look. Rather busy today/tomorrow.

I just noticed your post, and yes I did use my map.

1 minute ago, STINK said:

I'm irked

... Why?

[STINK he/him]

Alright so elims if you claim to me and help me get valuable items, I can tell you who the other villagers are for exchange, pretty good right?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

34 minutes ago, STINK said:

Alright so elims if you claim to me and help me get valuable items, I can tell you who the other villagers are for exchange, pretty good right?

I'll claim, so go ahead and send me a list of all the players that aren't elims.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'll claim, so go ahead and send me a list of all the players that aren't elims.

....huh?

Also, I’m still not exactly sure why you’re voting me. Is it because I lied about the clock? I did that because I wanted to keep who had it a secret, so the elims wouldn’t even know where to begin with trying to get it from someone. Now Gears has outed me to the entire thread, so, regardless of Gears’ alignment, the elims know I have the clock.

If there is another time you think I was dishonest, I’d appreciate it if you told me so because I don’t remember lying besides about the clock.

[Gears]

11 hours ago, Mist said:

Gears. You have been chosen. by rng

RNG reasons are worse than any faux reasoning I have encountered. Nothing against your chosen playstyle, but I find it... mildly distasteful. What if you are merely declaring your actions to be RNG? [I am not accusing you, merely noting an exploit.]

11 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, to make something clear that should’ve been pretty obvious: I grabbed the clock. I was trying to keep it a secret so that the elims (and Thief) wouldn’t know to try and take it from me. Given that I suspect Gears of being an elim, trying to hide it is pointless now. I’ve suspected him for awhile now (primarily because he fits the profile for the events of N1-both for if there was no kill and if they hit Quinn and decided to go again N2), and this is a very odd move to me. Why out me to literally everyone without consulting me first? If he was a villager, he just painted a target on my back for no reason. If he’s an elim, he’s already got a target on me himself and would be looking for a way to take me out. So, he sees I lied and takes an opportunity. 

I'm an idiot. I daresay I would be more intelligent as an elim. If I was an elim, why would I lay out my reasoning for NK'ing Quinn N1? I somewhat misstepped here, my apologies. I should have conferred with you. You are welcome to kill me for this oversight. I've already submitted some death RP.

11 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Yep, agreed, Gears I don't have anything else to add.

No reasoning is worse than faux reasoning. I would be willing to move to Order.

[|TJ| he/him]

I'll put a vote on The Unknown Order. I do think elims would put one of them forward and show they're doing villagery actions. Holding Map for this long also doesn't seem good. Also, in their item analysis they tried to tell that grabbing Map was a village move, which I don't really see as elims want items too. Felt like they were trying to pass their own map-grabbing as village.

Edited February 7, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Archer he/him]

Gears’ stab confuses me.

Let’s assume he’s a villager. He said after his Illwei ISO he was suspicious of Stiker and scanned them. They had Striker on record as saying they didn’t have it, so in their excitement, Gears called them out.

If this is the case, it looks like conf bias. They did not consider that Striker was a villager trying to avoid being robbed or RBed. Knowing they have it, their post reads to me as either an elim hoarding the clock or a villager stating their plan to see if everyone likes it without tipping their hand, which I can see someone doing.

*

Now let’s assume he’s an elim. He knows in advance that Illwei will die. That makes Striker, who tunneled them for a while and made a theory based on three villagers being an elim team, look suspicious. He also knows he’s been taking some heat by players like Araris and that he will be floated as an exe candidate the next day. He needs to present a viable counter-candidate, so he scans Striker’s action. But what if he hadn’t gotten the clock? He’d have to sus them without a smoking gun.

However, it’s helpful to know where the clock is. Perhaps the elims scanned everyone they thought might grab it. Or just Stiker and were going to assume Alvron (that’s the other person who said they’d grab it right) got it if Striker came up blank. I’m kind of assuming Gears has the specialization now, but that’s not actually confirmed. Or maybe another elim scanned and Gears is just reporting what they found. That seems easily disprovable if they got scanned themselves though. Maybe the other person who tried to grab the map failed so they’re assuming it was Striker. Bold accusation if that’s the case, and risks a scan catching them.

Alternatively, Striker and Gears are elims trying to put some distance between each other. They could have decided one of them was going to die soon anyway so they should bus to get the other village cred. They can now pass the Thief the clock to get it out of the way and one of them will look decent coming out of this.

The v/v thing makes sense to me, but I’ve been privately sussing them both, so I think it’s conf bias talking. Hm.

*

I still have a map. It’s not valuable, so it’s a low priority thief target. Filling the Camp Supply helps the village more than the elims, but they get some use out of it too. So I feel comfortable sitting on it for now. (Despite what TJ just said.)

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

14 hours ago, Archer said:

Counter proposal: if you got the clock, shoot me a PM and use it tonight. I'd hate for it to be hoarded then stolen. I'll confirm someone says they'll do it, then no one will need to draw lines. The advantage of this is it's unlikely they will be roleblocked. As a request though, please, no one deny you have the clock. Let's keep it ambiguous. 

Illwei was an interesting choice. I'd started calling them strong village in my reads, but it provides us more info than killing a random low poster would. Now I'm paranoid it was a setup to make Ventyl look good. If anyone re reading the thread sees someone shifted to supporting Illwei in the last two rounds, call it out. Striker comes to mind, if I'm remembering things right. 

I'll probably grab the acid. It's about time I helped defend the camp. The gun would be an unfortunate thing for converted!me to have in my possession. 

Last night I taught someone a specialization. 

Edit: I am suspicious of anyone who 'forgets to take an action'. It's a good cover for using chalk in nefarious ways. So save yourself the suspicion and taaaake your acccctions

How does Illwei’s removal make me look good?

Anyways, in a PM with Striker, he did try to defend Connie against my allegations of being a thief. Saying he knew they weren’t one. This seems rather suspicious in hindsight... I’m hesitant about killing him, but I think he’s a better option than Gears, who seems TWTBW in my opinion.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Anyways, in a PM with Striker, he did try to defend Connie against my allegations of being a thief. Saying he knew they weren’t one. This seems rather suspicious in hindsight... I’m hesitant about killing him, but I think he’s a better option than Gears, who seems TWTBW in my opinion.

....bro. I said I knew she wasn’t the thief because I knew who the thief couldn’t be by looking at who was taking items from the camp supply on the day turns when people lost items. It wasn’t hard to look at that and figure out that Connie wasn’t the Thief.

EDIT: correct tense, because Connie is dead.

Edited February 7, 2021 by StrikerEZ

[Kasimir he/him]

[OOC: Tired and it's been a long day so no RP forthcoming just yet.

Just further thoughts, some of which are at request:

• I'm mildly suspicious of Gears' move. I know some players disagree with me on this in PMs. I don't think it's strongly indicative of his alignment, but I do think it's either an Evil move or poor Village play. The only scenario under which it doesn't turn out to be poor Village play is if and only if one thinks Striker to be Evil - which to be fair, Gears was leaning towards last night. Lying about possession of the clock is not itself something incompatible with being a Villager - both Villagers and Evil have reason to be deceptive about this, so calling Striker out in that light appears to be both trying too hard, and attempting to instigate a clock FFA, whether by the Thief, or by LoRs. I note that Evil doesn't need to go for item possession play, only to deny us these items or to force us to squander valuable resources re-acquiring them. 
   
• I didn't Ward the camp last night because I was out of chalk. I no longer am. Resource scarcity is definitely an issue.
   
• I'm somewhat suspicious of Gears, Striker, TUO, and now Araris, so this thread has basically been me singing 'Every Major's Terrible' to myself but trying to adapt it for 'Every Suspicion's Terrible' instead while working out who my final vote will go to. (Akan datang.) 
   
• I'm not happy with how fast the vote wagon sprang up on Gears, and I'm saying this independent of my suspicions. Short of us having caught Gears bloodyhanded and some kind of quiet Seeker coordination going behind the scenes, a vote train shouldn't have materialised this quickly, considering Striker wasn't actively in danger of being grinched (thanks @Illwei, imma try this one) at that point.
   
• I haven't been able to do vote analysis or deep reading yet. I am reluctant to break my declaration I will be Laidback!Kas this game, and I'm tired. At least it's not the vaccine. But you may want to take this into consideration with regard to the level of analysis currently backing my suspicions.
   
• Striker - the late vote on Connie doesn't look good, and Striker commenting - consciously, of course - that his main suspicions had all gone awry and he was at a loss could be consistent with an Evil player realising he has to account for the fact Illwei and Mat are Village. Or it could be a Villager who really has realised he needs to re-evaluate. Striker could be a convenient patsy. Or not. But if we're giving flak to Striker for tunneling on Illwei, then Ash and Ventyl don't come out looking very good either. With Striker, the added complication is that he's known to be PM Spidering, and to have coordinated Wards on one Night. With players occupying these roles, the usual question is, "Why are you still alive?" Taking down info-nexuses is always a good thing for an Evil team. Of course, if the correct reading of the situation is that Striker is being set up as the fall guy for today, then it's no surprise he's left alive - because he's the next grinch candidate. Or, he could be Evil.
   
• TUO - they're lurking comfortably in the vaguely helpful region, claimed to be Warding daily but forgot their order last night, and attempted to offer item analyses, which in my view, only go so far until we know how Team Evil is playing. I'm very wary of how swiftly they jumped onto the Gears wagon. This is their first vote of the entire game, and Striker's reasoning for Gears is not substantially different from what has been offered for Gears on any point save D1, minus Gears calling Striker out, but again - that's not necessarily Evil-exclusive.
   
• Araris - that post on the Striker-Gears clash is incredibly wishy-washy and appears to be extremely gerrymandered towards voting on Striker, coming from a player who has consistently voted on Gears on every single day (D1, D3, mentioned as suspicion N1 -Edit: Correction, I meant mentioned as suspicion N3, which just makes this look worse in my opinion) Gears showed up as a vote candidate, including against Connie. There's a shift from 'Gears is suspicious' to 'Gears has strong justification' - really? What is it? Because the only way Gears shows up as having strong justification is if and only if Gears thinks Striker is Evil. Lying about the clock is not itself sufficient grounds to deem a player Evil. And for the record, I know two other players who tried for the clock and failed. Unclear to me how the deception would've been obvious. So the bottom line of that post: 'Gears is suspicious, TUO is suspicious, but I'm going to go for Striker, who has done the same thing TUO did in my analysis, and also, Evil Gears should've been more thoughtful.' - Evil Gears does have a reason to: instigating a FFA.
   
• I'm not comfortable voting on Gears or Striker without further analysis. But TUO and Araris have crept to the lead where my suspicions are concerned.
   
• I'm not gonna highlight this it's a sea of OOC anyway.
   
• Don't @ me this isn't analysis and I mean it.]

Edited February 7, 2021 by Kasimir

[Archer he/him]

40 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

How does Illwei’s removal make me look good?

Okay, I misremembered what you did again. Checking my post, you actually tried to kill Illwei! Bad! Much sus! 

VC, just to have it, asterisks on people with no reasons:

Striker: Gears, Araris, Ventyl

Gears: Mist*, Striker, TUO*

TUO: Kas, TJ

Ventyl, did you say to Striker that Connie was a thief or the Thief? An Elim would be happy to let their teammate appear to be the neutral. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Okay, I misremembered what you did again. Checking my post, you actually tried to kill Illwei! Bad! Much sus! 

VC, just to have it, asterisks on people with no reasons:

Striker: Gears, Araris, Ventyl

Gears: Mist*, Striker, TUO*

TUO: Kas, TJ

Ventyl, did you say to Striker that Connie was a thief or the Thief? An Elim would be happy to let their teammate appear to be the neutral. 

I told Striker I thought Connie was the Thief due to some things they said in PMs. Striker said they weren’t. 

Also, why would elim!me point out that I’m suspicious because of my vote on Illwei?

edit:

Furthermore, why would my fellow elims do something that would implicate me in such a way?

Edited February 7, 2021 by Ventyl

[Alvron]

4 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, I’m still not exactly sure why you’re voting me. Is it because I lied about the clock? I did that because I wanted to keep who had it a secret, so the elims wouldn’t even know where to begin with trying to get it from someone. Now Gears has outed me to the entire thread, so, regardless of Gears’ alignment, the elims know I have the clock.

Here's the thing though.  If you wanted to keep it secret that you had the clock then why did you say you tried and failed to take it?  Why not just give your advice about keeping it a secret and leave it at that?
There was no reason for you to claim your action as you did unless you were trying to show you took an action and thus couldn't have made the kill.

3 hours ago, Archer said:

I still have a map. It’s not valuable, so it’s a low priority thief target. Filling the Camp Supply helps the village more than the elims, but they get some use out of it too. So I feel comfortable sitting on it for now. (Despite what TJ just said.)

A Map is incredible valuable to everyone including the Thief, it's just not labeled as valuable.  We need a constant supply of chalk flowing into the camp.  IMO at least one Map should be used every Night from this point onwards to keep us supplied.  Not using your Map basically handicaps the village later down the line as players are continuously using Chalk and the Chalkling strength continues to grow.

It's for that reason that TUO is growing in suspicion to me.  Not using your Map for the two Nights you've had it is bad and given the discussion that took place during the past Day, I am surprised that you 'forgot' to place an action.  I'm holding off on voting for you at the moment until I finishing gathering all my missing data but you are my leading suspect.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'm gonna be a bit busy today, so I probably won't post (much) here until this evening.

That being said, I'll up the pressure on The Unknown Order. @The Unknown Order, any suspicions to share besides following Gears onto Striker? Any reason we should avoid killing you? Any reason you've forgotten to use the map so many times?