Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Flyingbooks]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

HEY, I just thought of a brilliant idea of using Shadowblaze as an alignment scanner! Every cycle we can pass it to someone who we think is a villager. If the strength of the chalkings doesn't increase more than expected, we can hard-clear them as village! Of course, the aim of this is more to hard-clear villagers than to find elims because then we would have to deliberately give it to suspected people and if they're elims then it's out of our hands, but then Ash (if he's village) or normal revocation can be used to get it back and now we've found an elim. Thoughts? Is it.. game break-y?

It's a good idea in theory, but the elims could theoretically add an extra unreported line of warding if it gets passed to one of them, making it seem like somebody was hard-cleared. It'd cost a chalk but it would definitely be beneficial to the elims to have one of their number be a firm village read. Alternatively, an elim could falsely claim to be using a line of warding if a villager had the shadowblaze so the net defense would be one lower than expected, making a villager seem suspicious at no cost.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Flyingbooks said:

It's a good idea in theory, but the elims could theoretically add an extra unreported line of warding if it gets passed to one of them, making it seem like somebody was hard-cleared. It'd cost a chalk but it would definitely be beneficial to the elims to have one of their number be a firm village read. Alternatively, an elim could falsely claim to be using a line of warding if a villager had the shadowblaze so the net defense would be one lower than expected, making a villager seem suspicious at no cost.

The Elims would actually have to add two defense to be cleared, one to make it equal one to make it higher.

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

It's a good idea in theory, but the elims could theoretically add an extra unreported line of warding if it gets passed to one of them, making it seem like somebody was hard-cleared. It'd cost a chalk but it would definitely be beneficial to the elims to have one of their number be a firm village read. Alternatively, an elim could falsely claim to be using a line of warding if a villager had the shadowblaze so the net defense would be one lower than expected, making a villager seem suspicious at no cost.

Yes, that's why I'm not focusing on the strength of the camp, which would be susceptible to elim manipulation. I've telling we should focus on the strength of the chalkings which is told to us at the beginning of every Night turn. There is no way to manipulate that other than an ML (which we can keep track of) or Shadowblaze, which in the hands of an elim gives +1 strength to chalkings. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by TJ Shade

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Yes, that's why I'm not focusing on the strength of the camp, which would be susceptible to elim manipulation. I've telling we should focus on the strength of the chalkings which is told to us at the beginning on every Night turn. There is no way to manipulate that other than an ML (which we can keep track of) or Shadowblaze, which in the hands of an elim gives +1 strength to chalkings. 

This...isn't actually a terrible idea.

I'm still not a huge fan, but I think it works mechanically. I just think that it wouldn't be very long before the elims get their hands on it by taking it during the night. Or by using Revocation on someone during the day and grabbing it in the night.

[Flyingbooks]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Yes, that's why I'm not focusing on the strength of the camp, which would be susceptible to elim manipulation. I've telling we should focus on the strength of the chalkings which is told to us at the beginning on every Night turn. There is no way to manipulate that other than an ML (which we can keep track of) or Shadowblaze, which in the hands of an elim gives +1 strength to chalkings. 

Ok. Now that I've noticed that we get the strength told to us, I can't see any obvious flaws with the accuracy of the plan.

[Illwei]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

I'm still not a huge fan, but I think it works mechanically. I just think that it wouldn't be very long before the elims get their hands on it by taking it during the night. Or by using Revocation on someone during the day and grabbing it in the night.

Theoretically, one person gets it, they're protected for that night while they hand it off, and hopefully then the Elims won't know where it is. Any Revocation attempts will be guesses at best, which...probably might hit someone, but at the same time, who knows?

it's a risk for it to get taken anyways, and I think the problem of it hitting the Non-Rithmatist is the only legitimate one, and that's not a problem anymore unless Archer is trying something wierd :P.

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

HEY, I just thought of a brilliant idea of using Shadowblaze as an alignment scanner! Every cycle we can pass it to someone who we think is a villager. If the strength of the chalkings doesn't increase more than expected, we can hard-clear them as village! Of course, the aim of this is more to hard-clear villagers than to find elims because then we would have to deliberately give it to suspected people and if they're elims then it's out of our hands, but then Ash (if he's village) or normal revocation can be used to get it back and now we've found an elim. Thoughts? Is it.. game break-y?

[OOC: Hello from antipyretics land!

Quote

Shadowblaze (Passive, Night, Valuable x2): If held by a Rithmatist, gives the camp one additional Defense each night. If held by a Forgotten, lowers the camp's Defense by one. If the player holding the Shadowblaze dies, it is removed from the game.

You're welcome.]

[|TJ| he/him]

Well Kas just pointed out in a PM that I've I mis-remembered the rules. I thought Shadowblaze in the hands of the elims would give +1 strength to chalkings, but it actually gives -1 strength to the camp. -.- My bad. 

Okay see if we can work with this. For an elim to falsely blame a villager with Shadowblaze, 2 elims should falsely claim to have protected the camp and they wouldn't. Will they do it? I'm not sure if that's likely. But it does require coordination.

Edit: Ninja'd by Kas :P.

Edited February 5, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Illwei]

6 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Okay see if we can work with this. For an elim to falsely blame a villager with Shadowblaze, 2 elims should falsely claim to have protected the camp and they wouldn't. Will they do it? I'm not sure if that's likely. But it does require coordination.

I don't think that? The person holding it might be watched, but just one Elim would need to defend and not say anything. Then it would be negated?

It then wouldn't be two falsely claiming, but one not claiming, and yet having done it.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Thanks to Kas's excellent reminder of the rules, I am no longer in favor of this Shadowblaze plan. It is far too easy (relatively speaking) for the elims to make us out with this. Just claim the right amount of LoW needed to get the defense to the number for the desired result, and don't actually defend. And it could also be messed up by villagers deciding to defend when they don't need to, therefore inflating the number as well, when the Shadowblaze could actually be in elim hands.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Using Maps during the day is a bad idea. We want to be able to know who grabs the power items they can drop, even disregarding my Shadowblaze obsession. If we use them during the day, any items they drop will just be grabbed at night by who-knows-who.

That, and... we already had 4 Defense claims last night? We didn't need the extra Warding. Not as bad as we needed items.

Theoretically we could get more villagers than elims to go for the high profile items like the ornate clock or the Shadowblaze when it shows up, but that is complicated by the need to draw LoW at night. If the elims don't have a revocation specialty it's definitely better to get the good items out to be taken during the day, with the understanding that whoever ends up with important items is liable to be killed in addition to being stolen from.

I think we only had three defense claims until the very end; Araris, Alvron, and anonymous claim to Striker, which was low enough to be worrisome. We somehow ended up with six defense though which seems too high. We have the aforementioned three, Kas, Order, and then I don't think we know the sixth.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm trying to make sense of the votes we've had so far. People that stand out are:

@Lotus, who voted on Archer post-claim.

I'd be curious to hear people's thoughts on and explanations of these things. My initial impression is that Lotus is probably village, since that would be a major slip for an elim. Similar with Reading, I would think an elim would mention the thing about Lotus.

 

Horde wise, exing Archer would be better than exing Illwei or Matrim if Lotus thought they were both village, though doing so would warrant a stronger village read on them than Lotus's earlier read list suggested.

Why are you suspicious of Archer? Do you doubt his NR claim, or think the Shadowblaze is somehow in play?

1 hour ago, Archer said:

It would be better to give it to a villager to lower their strength repeatedly. Edit: I meant up the defense

I'm naturally suspicious of any vote manipulation, especially when the will of the village is to let fate decide. TJ bribed me to vote on a villager, which an Elim could use to frame Illwei. Ventyl also vote maniped, and was slow to tell the group. They removed a vote from Illwei, which could be an Elim trying to frame Illwei, or protecting a teammate. If TJ and Ventyl are teammates, they could have done the double tap instead of a single to counter an Illwei self pres manip. If Illwei was teamed with TJ they'd have avoided cancelling the bribe. If Ventyl and Illwei are together, they would not have known about the bribe and their actions would make sense. So to recap: Illwei and TJ are not both elims, Ventyl and TJ could be e/e, Illwei and Ventyl could be e/e. TJ's bribe is consistent with their support of Illwei in debate and D1 Mat vote. They were wrong, but it seems consistent.

+1 defense every cycle probably will be better than even a permanent -2 strength.

If you're confident enough in your reads to cast a vote with the intention of killing a particular player, it's reasonable to use vote manipulation to ensure their death, although vote manipulation comes at a higher cost than usual this game. Ventyl's vote manipulation was definitely not an elim saving a teammate as Matrim was a villager. Framing is more likely, but chalk is decently valuable. I don't see TJ/Ventyl spending valuable resources to play both sides of the manipulation.

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Okay see if we can work with this. For an elim to falsely blame a villager with Shadowblaze, 2 elims should falsely claim to have protected the camp and they wouldn't. Will they do it? I'm not sure if that's likely. But it does require coordination.

So if strength is three say, we would want four villagers to draw LoW just in case and then claim the following day. If a lantern holder says the defense is five, it suggests that the Shadowblaze holder is village. To fool that if the holder was an elim, the Forgotten would need to contribute two defense. Alternatively, they could try to block two of the four villagers  so that the reported defense is 3 like it would be if all the lines had gone through but the Shadowblaze was elim. Any villager who ended up with the Shadowblaze would become a prime kill target.

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If you're confident enough in your reads to cast a vote with the intention of killing a particular player, it's reasonable to use vote manipulation to ensure their death

"Just because last time devo said this they were an Elim, doesn't mean that they're an Elim now, Illwei."

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I think we only had three defense claims until the very end; Araris, Alvron, and anonymous claim to Striker, which was low enough to be worrisome. We somehow ended up with six defense though which seems too high. We have the aforementioned three, Kas, Order, and then I don't think we know the sixth.

Araris was the claim to Striker, I believe. But yeah, missing the 6th. If it was you (general you, @village in general, not Devo), would be nice for you to come out and say so :P.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei

[StrikerEZ he/him]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I think we only had three defense claims until the very end; Araris, Alvron, and anonymous claim to Striker, which was low enough to be worrisome. We somehow ended up with six defense though which seems too high. We have the aforementioned three, Kas, Order, and then I don't think we know the sixth.

Two people used acid on D2, I believe. Alv and someone else I can't remember. Araris and Kas were the two players who claimed to be using LoW to me, and TUO came out to the thread and said that they also used one. I think someone else did as well, but I can't remember who it was.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I think we only had three defense claims until the very end; Araris, Alvron, and anonymous claim to Striker, which was low enough to be worrisome. We somehow ended up with six defense though which seems too high. We have the aforementioned three, Kas, Order, and then I don't think we know the sixth.

[OOC: In theory. You're missing one possibility. I'm dithering about whether to say it as it paints a target, or just assuming Evil already knows.]

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: In theory. You're missing one possibility. I'm dithering about whether to say it as it paints a target, or just assuming Evil already knows.]

Assume they already know always. Better in all hands than elim hands.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Assume they already know always. Better in all hands than elim hands.

Quote

Line of Warding: Add one to the Camp’s Defense (Night)

Specialization: Give the camp two Defense, rather than one.

[OOC: What's more, TUO and I Warded N1 as well, and the numbers were as expected, which tells you if this was the case, the extra Defense didn't come from us unless Archer decided to visit us (even then, Warding is fairly early on OoA - @Sart, where does NR visitation go on OoA? Can this be LoV/LoFed?) ]

Edited February 5, 2021 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

The Shard ate my post...

43 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Oh, I see. All this to try for the Shadowblaze, and failing which, you get to know the person who took it and snatch it from them xD Ash, I swear I'm going to be so annoyed if you -

 

Main problem with the plan is that the Elims can just murder whoever has the Shadowblaze and then it's gone forever. And Revocation won't always work because it picks a random item. And I may just Revoke the Shadowblaze and then hold it until I die.

Also, I think Araris claimed he threw a bucket. So if he also drew Warding, there's Number 6.

Edit: No, Ash, no it's not.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ashbringer

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

[OOC: What's more, TUO and I Warded N1 as well, and the numbers were as expected, which tells you if this was the case, the extra Defense didn't come from us unless Archer decided to visit us (even then, Warding is fairly early on OoA - @Sart, where does NR visitation go on OoA? Can this be LoV/LoFed?) ]

I mean, from what it sounds like from what I've heard from Archer, you get told that you received a Specialization. Though I doubt that lines you use the night you receive one would have the Specialization. 

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, I think Araris claimed he threw a bucket. So if he also drew Warding, there's Number 6.

1 - Alv bucket
2 - Araris Bucket
3 - Kas Ward
4 - TUO Ward
5 - Araris Ward
6 - ??? (I guess huh maybe araris if the specialization thing in the OOO interesitng i guess)

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

The Shard ate my post...

 

Main problem with the plan is that the Elims can just murder whoever has the Shadowblaze and then it's gone forever. And Revocation won't always work because it picks a random item. And I may just Revoke the Shadowblaze and then hold it until I die.

Also, I think Araris claimed he threw a bucket. So if he also drew Warding, there's Number 6.

The Shadowblaze would be returned to the camp pile. This would mean it would be during the day, therefore meaning we would know who got it.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, from what it sounds like from what I've heard from Archer, you get told that you received a Specialization. Though I doubt that lines you use the night you receive one would have the Specialization. 

[OOC: Sart clarifies that lines are default taken to be Specialised unless you say otherwise:

Quote

• Yes. For instance, you can use Lines of Silencing and choose not shut someone out of PMs. Just be clear about that in your action submission, since the default will be to use the powered up version.

So the real question is where the NR visit falls on OoA.

But Ash is right - no need to postulate Warding specialisation then as I missed TUO's Warding claim.]

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The Shadowblaze would be returned to the camp pile. This would mean it would be during the day, therefore meaning we would know who got it.

Yeah, nope.]

Edited February 5, 2021 by Kasimir
highlighting bork

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The Shadowblaze would be returned to the camp pile. This would mean it would be during the day, therefore meaning we would know who got it.

• Shadowblaze (Passive, Night, Valuable x2): If held by a Rithmatist, gives the camp one additional Defense each night. If held by a Forgotten, lowers the camp's Defense by one. If the player holding the Shadowblaze dies, it is removed from the game.

Nope. Shadowblaze be special. (Hopefully I beat Kas too it...)

No, he posted!

Oh wait that was something else. I did it!

 

Edit: ...

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The Shadowblaze would be returned to the camp pile. This would mean it would be during the day, therefore meaning we would know who got it.

Quote

If the player holding the Shadowblaze dies, it is removed from the game.

EDIT:

ninja'd by Ash >>

EDIT EDIT:

And...Kas?

u know, next time I'm just staying silent >.(

Edited February 5, 2021 by Illwei

[Ashbringer he/him]

That was weird.

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

I don't think that? The person holding it might be watched, but just one Elim would need to defend and not say anything. Then it would be negated?

That would be to prove that an elim is a villager. I was thinking if they want to frame a villager holding Shadowblaze, they'd have to said what I said above. But yeah, it's a bad idea, creating too many IKYK scenarios. Shadowblaze in hands of elim increasing chalking strength was the crucial point, and it's not actually like that. 

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

"Just because last time devo said this they were an Elim, doesn't mean that they're an Elim now, Illwei."

They said this in QF50 as well, iirc. :P.

40 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Oh, I see. All this to try for the Shadowblaze, and failing which, you get to know the person who took it and snatch it from them xD Ash, I swear I'm going to be so annoyed if you -

Let me just completely my thought there which was interrupted because I ran away with my idea. :P. @Ashbringer, because this was a reply to you. I was going to say "I swear I'm going to be so annoyed if I get the Shadowblaze and you snatch it from me for RP reasons" :P. And then I thought - "at least let me get cleared and then you can snatch it". And then I thought, "we can use that to clear you too" and then so on and ran with the idea :P.

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also, I think Araris claimed he threw a bucket. So if he also drew Warding, there's Number 6.

Araris, Avron - Buckets of Acid (2). Araris, Kas, TUO - Warding (3) = 5 

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The Shadowblaze would be returned to the camp pile. This would mean it would be during the day, therefore meaning we would know who got it.

Shadowblaze does not return to the camp. It is destroyed if the person holding it dies. 

Ninja'd by like 10 posts -.-