Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Condensation she/her]

1 minute ago, Ventyl said:

You forgot the comma after Illwei

And I agree, I think Illwei has done a lot more questionable things than Archer. Maybe that’s just gut, but Idk.

Would you like to be added?

Mat, you can think what you want.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Just now, Condensation said:

Would you like to be added?

Perhaps.

[Condensation she/her]

1 minute ago, Ventyl said:

Perhaps.

I'm adding you.

[|TJ| he/him]

29 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

K, cool! So. Looking at this from an elim perspective, the objective for them is to make sure the Camp is overrun, right? In order to do that, they need to avoid being exed and get as many mix's as possible. Sooo they need to be trusted, right? Obviously a D1 bus wouldn't be the worst idea since it doesn't lower the Hoard Strength, but that's very costly and only works for one person. So... what if they protected the camp N1 and made sure that there was a way to confirm it? The Camp almost certainly wasn't going to be overrun N1 since every villager had chalk and the Strength was so low. So the elims take a Lantern (TJ--or I suppose myself) and then one of them (Kas or TUO) draws a Line. The Lantern user gets a vil read for accurately reporting Defense, and the Line-drawer gets vil cred for Defending, but the elims don't actually lose anything but a Piece of Chalk. Then they can work on taking the other Lanterns (notice there are no more in the Supply and yet no one has claimed to have one) and Chalk and killing any villagers who had Lanterns (TJ or me--either one would explain the blocked kill since we both protected).

Scale of 1-10 how paranoid does that sound?

I agree with the basic idea of it, which is to not trust people based on item possession on its own. I thought it was common knowledge, but I'll not be clearing people with Lantern or LoW on that info alone. My village reason you is completely independent of you grabbing the Lantern. The Lantern just supplements. Likewise, I have reasons to suspect TUO, despite them drawing LoW. Item possession should be used as secondary to supplement the primary source of reads. 

26 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Hm, well it read a lot like you were considering me as an elim.

But still your reason for putting me back on the drawing board is still contradictory. 

I think your comparison doesn't hold good. You're linking two completely different things though. Jumping on votes is something that elims do. Stating firm directly contradictory statements is not. These are two different things. 

[STINK he/him]

24 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

?

one of them has a valuable item innit

[Flyingbooks]

I'm very busy with homework so I haven't been able to really read the thread. I'll probably catch up with it a bit before rollover.

[---]

"36 new messages" sajkdlfhd

3 hours ago, Ventyl said:

If so why did she never state her intentions in thread? @Illwei, this is why Ash is suspicious of you.

HI! I KNOW! if people could read the discussion I had with Ash? that would be nice! there is a reason I wasn't like "yo ash let's move this to PMs". so that other people could see and/or get involved in it!

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Illwei, I don't recall suspicions on anyone, who are your top suspicions?

skafjhflsfd

agh.

So

Agh.

I completely agree with your point about Lotus, I felt the same way.
I'm not feeling so great About Ventyl, but I don't think he would hop on a teammate's reasoning that fast.
Connie's weird sudden defence of Archer is strange
Not feeling good about Alv, tbh, but...he hasn't said anything really, And I'm not in a PM with him. so that's just gonna bake for a bit in the "I don't like it" oven
Stink i don' feel good about. I am chalking this up to the fact that I'm kinda actually seeing him talk in pms in a game kinda? so idk but it's still there.

Not sure...not sure what I think about Archer. Yeah I think they're suspicious, but I think they're just as suspicious as in QF50. They are talking a bit more now, which definitely makes me a bit worried, but this is also a LG so ofc they're talking more. reeeeeeee

I have village reads on Quinn, Striker, and Ash for right now.

Ventyl/Archer not E/E

Illwei (4): Ashbringer, Striker, Archer, Ventyl 

Archer (6): Matrim, Random Bystander, Kas, TJ, Araris, STINK

Flyingbooks(1)Mist

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

chaotically fun GM

Damn is this a burn on sart damn.

40 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

And I agree, I think Illwei has done a lot more questionable things than Archer. Maybe that’s just gut, but Idk.

What an interesting statement for someone claiming to be going blindly off of Archer's post?

28 minutes ago, STINK said:

one of them has a valuable item innit

Wait

waht?

you're voting Archer because he has valuable items?

 

[Quintessential she/her]

: P I dislike ties, near-ties, vote-counts that could turn into ties if one person changed their mind, etc. so I'm gonna place a vote on Archer for now. I have every intention of going back through the C1 and this cycle and looking at both Illwei and Archer, but I don't have the time in this instant and it feels weird not to have voted yet. This is more of a placeholder ig 

[Mat he/him]

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Dang is this a burn on sart dang.

Nah nah it was me not trying to insult Elk by calling his distributions chaotic and broken

20 minutes ago, Illwei said:

you're voting Archer because he has valuable items?

Thief! Thief!

[STINK he/him]

28 minutes ago, Illwei said:

you're voting Archer because he has valuable items?

i can always go back to you for mis-spelling maths if u want

[Ashbringer he/him]

... oh dear. That's a lot.

Here's a lot more. (Not questions, just responses to things.)

15 hours ago, Illwei said:

15 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Including @STINK, who I'd like to hear more from, because they seemed to just add support to my reasoning without really saying anything. Which I know is fairly Stink, but still.

They.

They did not.

Uh... I can read!

14 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Ashbringer In Illwei’s defense, she did in fact mention wanting to get the book of vigor to keep it out of elim hands, around ~18 hours into D1. I’m about to sleep, just felt the need to add that. I’ll think about what it means later.

Gotcha. That at least sticks the two of you together.

4 hours ago, Ventyl said:

In thread or in PMs? 

If so why did she never state her intentions in thread? @Illwei, this is why Ash is suspicious of you.

... very much do not like this. For one thing I noticed that edit . For another, we've... hashed this out a lot. Even if we're still at an impasse on whether I believe Illwei, she's given her own reasons multiple times.

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

What exactly did Archer contribute? He made two posts of note, one which told he's going for bribe preemptively, and one in which he said he isn't voting for the main wagons and votes on Illwei, both these I'm not exactly comfortable. So, what is the good bit he contributed?

... I think I tend to equivocate "big" with "good". At least, Archer did do some big half-analysis posts D1, which is a lot more than I did. So it's less I trusted him for the content than him actually doing it, because it gives a frame to go back on.

That being said... I need to see if it actually makes sense.

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Ash, what exactly are you trying to say here? That she didn't exactly forget her actions? That she lied about forgetting her actions and she actually did use an action? If she lied about her forgetting her actions, what is your assumption that she used? Would an elim blatantly lie about forgetting an action, whereupon they could be easily caught if scanned? I don't see why Elim!Illwei has any reason to lie about not using an action. 

I really do not like this train on Illwei. Reasons: STINK (Math), Striker (vote based on lots of assumptions and jumping to conclusions and tied to two other player), Archer (mainly for starting Dannex vote), Ventyl (jumped on Archer's reasoning) and Ash (whole lotta stuff). 

From what we've seen so far, I only see Illwei being an elim if Mat is one. Not because she started the Dannex vote, but more because Mat's been sly-defending Illwei, i.e. defending without actually defending, but this is like a stretch scenario because reading Mat as vil right now.

And I'm really not into the contradiction reason. It's such a silly mistake, way too foolish for an elim to make. Literally no reason for elim!Illwei to make the post saying "villagers will not go for the book", I don't see how an elim could make a big slip such as this after continually saying they're going for the said book. And now Striker's confirmed that she had told him the plan so elims don't get their hands on it preemptively, not after, like in thread. 

I think I was trying to understand why Illwei was directing me to an OOG source... and I'm pretty sure at that point I was trying to understand whether Illwei was saying she forgot the action or just didn't put in the action intentionally.

And I don't know why Illwei would lie. But from what I can see, her actions do not make sense regardless of alignment, and that was how I found her as Elim in LG69 - taking an action that neither benefited the Elims nor Village, because she simply hadn't seen her best course of action as an Elim. So I'm still suspicious. Striker's backup justifies most of what Illwei's said - unless Striker is also an Elim. But who knows at this point.

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

4 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

I would agree with you on Ash having a stronger connection to Matrim than Illwei does--although, Ash did say in a group PM with me, Illwei, Matrim, and some others (before Dannex became an option, I mean) that he would prefer to exe Matrim over Gears, but thought both of them were village.

Was this before or after Matrim apparently claimed acid to Ash ~7 hours before rollover D1?

I'll verify that this was before - Mat PM'd me just about when he said he would - but I'll also say I read Matrim null, and Gears Village. I saw no real reason that Mat should die from a train starting with Striker's reasoning of Mat having... reasoning. But I read Gears as a stronger Village.

Also, Elim!Mat definitely could have started with a bucket and thrown it. Especially if the Elims are doing... what they may be doing.

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

HI! I KNOW! if people could read the discussion I had with Ash? that would be nice! there is a reason I wasn't like "yo ash let's move this to PMs". so that other people could see and/or get involved in it!

... agreed  open suspicion discussion is helpful, even if a bit chaotic for me.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

31 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I saw no real reason that Mat should die from a train starting with Striker's reasoning of Mat having... reasoning.

How many times do I have to say that’s not why I voted on him?  

I voted on him because he actually had reasoning for me to analyze, and when I went and analyzed it, I felt it was coming from an elim perspective. Does that make sense?

Also, me backing up Illwei’s claim about saying that she wanted to get the book of Vigor out of the elims hands earlier than in thread is by no means a defense of her from me. I’d much rather lynch her over Archer still. I still don’t think everything is adding up with her, and I don’t like how we’re having another (somewhat) last minute CW showing up again.

[Quintessential she/her]

10 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, me backing up Illwei’s claim about saying that she wanted to get the book of Vigor out of the elims hands earlier than in thread is by no means a defense of her from me. I’d much rather lynch her over Archer still. I still don’t think everything is adding up with her, and I don’t like how we’re having another (somewhat) last minute CW showing up again.

I wouldn't call Archer last-minute, exactly... there've been votes on them all cycle. That being said, I'm still not sure whether I'm keeping my vote on Archer or moving it elsewhere--I have college essays to work on before I can sit down and do the truly important things in life like SE  

[Archer he/him]

The photograph was faded and creased from folding. It was smudged with long-dried tears. In it was a tall adult in a ruby-red Rithmatist coat, the same Evan wore now. The young man clutched the picture in his hands as he rocked back and forth nervously. He had a bad feeling about how the day was going to go.

“Hey Dad.” Instinctively he coughed, deepening his voice before he spoke again. But he was whispering anyway. No one would hear. No one would care, not with death at their door. “I made it. Mom said you’d be here. Somewhere.”

He wiped his nose with his too-big sleeve. “I don’t belong here. I think I’m allergic to chalk, I hate it, I hate it so much. I just…”

He took a deep, shuddering breath. “I wish I could have found you.”

***

I am the Non-Rithmatist. Last Night, I taught Devotary a specialization, then claimed to them in a PM at the start of the Day. I am aware of what specialization I taught them but will not disclose it. I chose them because I knew from a PM that they did not start with a Specialization. I have not told anyone else about it so as not to spoil voting analysis. Quinn was the last person I was waiting for a commitment to a position from before continuing, but since they have essays, I'm putting this up now. 

I am okay being robbed because I did not start with a piece of chalk that I can lose. All I have is a bribe.

I think the way the Shadowblaze works is it is not consumed when handed to me. If I can make it so the Thief robbing me is a regular occasion, or likely event, the way the Order of Operations is set up, the turn after I receive the Shadowblaze, if the Thief targets me, it would be stolen before converted evil me can off-load it. And then the elims lose the powers of the item, so it’s safer to just not convert me and hoard it instead. That’s the best defense I could think of, since the GM confirmed I can’t refuse an item pass. I know it’s not infallible, but how about we come back to this once the Shadowblaze comes into play and focus on other people in the meantime? For now, I’m guaranteed good. 

[Quintessential she/her]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

I am the Non-Rithmatist. Last Night, I taught Devotary a specialization, then claimed to them in a PM at the start of the Day. I am aware of what specialization I taught them but will not disclose it. I chose them because I knew from a PM that they did not start with a Specialization. I have not told anyone else about it so as not to spoil voting analysis. Quinn was the last person I was waiting for a commitment to a position from before continuing, but since they have essays, I'm putting this up now. 

I am okay being robbed because I did not start with a piece of chalk that I can lose. All I have is a bribe.

I think the way the Shadowblaze works is it is not consumed when handed to me. If I can make it so the Thief robbing me is a regular occasion, or likely event, the way the Order of Operations is set up, the turn after I receive the Shadowblaze, if the Thief targets me, it would be stolen before converted evil me can off-load it. And then the elims lose the powers of the item, so it’s safer to just not convert me and hoard it instead. That’s the best defense I could think of, since the GM confirmed I can’t refuse an item pass. I know it’s not infallible, but how about we come back to this once the Shadowblaze comes into play and focus on other people in the meantime? For now, I’m guaranteed good. 

Archer if you're lying it should be relatively easy to figure that out and exe you (edit: in a later cycle that is). Also this means we can keep an eye on you once there are Shadowblazes in play--assuming there isn't one out there already that we don't know about. (btw, I noticed your first RP subtly referenced that you didn't start with Chalk... I was kinda wondering what that was about lol)

Now I guess I should look at Illwei, huh.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Quinn0928

[---]

Ventyl

P.S.

So also, this is why I'm not a fan of just voting last minute/close to. Stating suspicions is nice and all, but some people piled on Archer because they didn't think I was more suspicious, even though they had other suspicions because there were no other votes. Well, if you don't go out and place that vote then you can't really be upset when the person you "settled on" flips village? because if no one actually votes for their suspicions then they aren't going to die.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Illwei

[Alvron he/him]

17 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: Hi Alv ] 

Hey Kas.  How's it going?

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

I am the Non-Rithmatist. Last Night, I taught Devotary a specialization, then claimed to them in a PM at the start of the Day. I am aware of what specialization I taught them but will not disclose it. I chose them because I knew from a PM that they did not start with a Specialization. I have not told anyone else about it so as not to spoil voting analysis. Quinn was the last person I was waiting for a commitment to a position from before continuing, but since they have essays, I'm putting this up now. 

I am okay being robbed because I did not start with a piece of chalk that I can lose. All I have is a bribe.

I think the way the Shadowblaze works is it is not consumed when handed to me. If I can make it so the Thief robbing me is a regular occasion, or likely event, the way the Order of Operations is set up, the turn after I receive the Shadowblaze, if the Thief targets me, it would be stolen before converted evil me can off-load it. And then the elims lose the powers of the item, so it’s safer to just not convert me and hoard it instead. That’s the best defense I could think of, since the GM confirmed I can’t refuse an item pass. I know it’s not infallible, but how about we come back to this once the Shadowblaze comes into play and focus on other people in the meantime? For now, I’m guaranteed good. 

Well chull.  Here I was all set to vote for you and you go and do this.

My analysis has/had at least one elim in the group of Archer, Quinn or Devotary.  But it's only preliminary results and I was looking forward to your death to see if I was on the right track.  

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Well, @Archer that at least explains why I was so sure you started off without chalk because of something you said in our PM. I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on you the moment that Shadowblaze shows up. And I’m pretty sure that you’d become an elim the moment you got it and a Thief couldn’t steal it from you.

[Quintessential she/her]

Ugh. I seem to have lost the necessary attention span for writing ISOs on people. 

10 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

And I’m pretty sure that you’d become an elim the moment you got it and a Thief couldn’t steal it from you.

Archer's point is that (as I asked and Sart clarified before the game) the Shadowblaze isn't consumed in the conversion. So non-Rithmatist without Shadowblaze becomes Forgotten with Shadowblaze, which is not good. So basically, the Thief knows who to try to steal from to get the Shadowblaze, and if the elims do convert Archer they may well lose the Shadowblaze.

Edit: I'm imagining @Ashbringer reading that paragraph and only getting from it:
"blah blah blah blah (blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah) the Shadowblaze blah blah blah blah blah. blah blah-blah blah Shadowblaze blah blah blah Shadowblaze blah blah blah blah. blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah the Shadowblaze, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah the Shadowblaze."

Edit II: Uh yeah so I take back everything I said in that first bit XD I went and double-checked and Sart said that the Shadowblaze is consumed.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Quinn0928

[Ashbringer he/him]

... well, shoot. I was going to chaotically decide that Illwei was convincing enough to go for Archer... I really don't think they are e/e. Well, now I don't. But I also didn't. You get the point. Still somewhat suspicious of Mat/Striker/Ventyl-ish.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, confirmation of the claim would be nice. (Don't tell us the specialization, just if Archer gave you one.)

 

If the Shadowblaze being consumed is like the Books being consumed, then I don't think the Thief can take it out from noses. And I'm not really sure why they would try. Plenty of Bribes going around and all that.

And, seeing as I'm not counterclaiming Non-Rithmatist, I can keep the Shadowblaze safe!

[---]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Illwei was convincing enough to go for Archer

Hi just making sure you realize that I never wanted to kill archer hm

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

If the Shadowblaze being consumed is like the Books being consumed, then I don't think the Thief can take it out from noses. And I'm not really sure why they would try. Plenty of Bribes going around and all that.

Oh. Wait. Yeah it is sry for some reason I thought that Sart said it wasn't consumed but it is (went back and checked)

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Edit: I'm imagining @Ashbringer reading that paragraph and only getting from it:
"blah blah blah blah (blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah) the Shadowblaze blah blah blah blah blah. blah blah-blah blah Shadowblaze blah blah blah Shadowblaze blah blah blah blah. blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah the Shadowblaze, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah the Shadowblaze."

Oooh, shiny!

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Hi just making sure you realize that I never wanted to kill archer hm

1) You voted on him... 

2) Yeah. But I'm susp (or was susp (or am susp (idk))) of Archer on me own. And if I decide you are convincing enough to let go, Archer the best next target as of 33 minutes ago.

[---]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

1) You voted on him... 

smh see: "that was a joke vote", as I've said, like 20 times >>

Edited February 2, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

@Matrim's Dice @Random Bystander @Kasimir @TJ Shade @Araris Valerian @STINK so given that there are less than three hours until rollover and the top exe target is, as it turns out, the confirmed village role, would you all consider moving your votes? I have no idea whether we'll hit an elim if we exe someone else but we certainly won't if we exe Archer, so... yeah. 

Also Illwei, because I'm basically postive that Archer's vil at this point and would rather he not die : P