Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

Edit: yes yes yes I know other people aren't me etc. shhhh okay my point is there was almost certainly more on Gears than there was on Dannex, since Dannex had said exactly nothing in-thread

The reasoning on Gears: Claim, Claim, Claim :P.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Edit: yes yes yes I know other people aren't me etc. shhhh okay my point is there was almost certainly more on Gears than there was on Dannex, since Dannex had said exactly nothing in-thread

It was an exe that wasn't against Dannex at all, it was simply that I and Gears suddenly wasn't wanted dead... which is strange, since I really should have died there :P. I'm confused as to what happened. But yeah.

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

And well, it makes sense for elim you to reveal it because it's a chance to save yourself by revealing you had an important item, which is what you did. Now, if elim!you weren't up for elimination, I agree that you wouldn't have spoken up or used it. But you were up for it, and did use the item as an out. Sort of a sacrifice, you save your life but have to draw a Line of Warding. 

I don't really think my item claim was the only reason I was spared, but I do think it helped  

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

44 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Confirmation, if it was ever required. This is Kas, TUO and Mat's Acid, yeah?

I don't recall you mentioning it. Have you?

Lesser camp protects, lesser kill protects, lesser roleblocks, lesser action scans

This post, sigh. If you think Mat is an elim, and Illwei saved Mat, it's Mat -> Illwei connection, not Illwei -> Mat connection as a villager who is uncomfortable Mat/Gears could have started it as well. Besides, I read Mat as village too from the posts this cycle, and I read Quinn as village as well. Thing is, this outlandish jumping to conclusion, I really don't think it's the action of an elim ._. Let me be clear, I'm not reading you as village either, I'm just confused about you. But this, in particular, doesn't seem like an elim move.

Matrim, you were the one who told she was continuing her RP from sign-ups. I read this as similar to my thief claim.

What exactly did Archer contribute? He made two posts of note, one which told he's going for bribe preemptively, and one in which he said he isn't voting for the main wagons and votes on Illwei, both these I'm not exactly comfortable. So, what is the good bit he contributed?

I thought you didn't want me to talk about it xD On a serious note, I don't think an elim would lie about it as it's the easiest way to get caught by crab users - much easier lies would be "protected myself" or "protected someone else"

Bolded wording very very weird. She used that momentum? No one followed that vote on Dannex till 4? hours later and Illwei did not speak about Dannex again. No other push on the vote. What is this momentum?

Disagree with the reasoning for the read. Could be the kill was blocked/protected and he was trying to move away from that. 

This whole post reads very much retroactive. Like a lots of things are "I had thought-" and "This was my thinking-" well why didn't you say so at the time? "It looked like a v/v wagon" why didn't you say so? "my gut said Matrim was a mis-vote"  well you didn't say a thing after initially mentioning Matrim was the suspicious of the village nulls. This paragraph sounds structured to make the past!you look good, when you did not say any of the things in the thread. 

You did that exact same thing. :P.

My problem is not the fact that you grabbed the bribe. It's how you tried to reason it off as village. There were 6 bribes in the supply. The thief could have picked from those. I see absolutely no reason for you to offer it to the thief other than to appear non-threatening with the bribe and appear as village. The thief has no reason to believe you too. The continued insistence to get robbed reads very weird to me. 

Reading Reading as village

Very easy to fake this post, but it reads an genuine to me. Village points for this.

I've been trying to not elim-read Lotus a lot for her only RPing throughout the game, but this post just screams elim.

I think @Sart sees the doubts asked in the thread (this one by Kas in particular), and phrases the questions himself and gives answers to them. At least that's how his clarifications seemed to me. The questions seem very formal, all of them. So I assume he's been phrasing them himself. I used Line of Forbidden to protect myself too and I did not ask that in my GM PM, so it's either he phrases the questions himself or we have a 3rd LoF self-protector. If any outed crab users saw someone target me, we probably have a suspect.

Ash, what exactly are you trying to say here? That she didn't exactly forget her actions? That she lied about forgetting her actions and she actually did use an action? If she lied about her forgetting her actions, what is your assumption that she used? Would an elim blatantly lie about forgetting an action, whereupon they could be easily caught if scanned? I don't see why Elim!Illwei has any reason to lie about not using an action. 

I really do not like this train on Illwei. Reasons: STINK (Math), Striker (vote based on lots of assumptions and jumping to conclusions and tied to two other player), Archer (mainly for starting Dannex vote), Ventyl (jumped on Archer's reasoning) and Ash (whole lotta stuff). 

From what we've seen so far, I only see Illwei being an elim if Mat is one. Not because she started the Dannex vote, but more because Mat's been sly-defending Illwei, i.e. defending without actually defending, but this is like a stretch scenario because reading Mat as vil right now.

And I'm really not into the contradiction reason. It's such a silly mistake, way too foolish for an elim to make. Literally no reason for elim!Illwei to make the post saying "villagers will not go for the book", I don't see how an elim could make a big slip such as this after continually saying they're going for the said book. And now Striker's confirmed that she had told him the plan so elims don't get their hands on it preemptively, not after, like in thread. 

@Illwei, I don't recall suspicions on anyone, who are your top suspicions?

Archer. Suspicious of Lotus. Very mild elim read on the bystander. they were quiet rping till they are voted on upon which a quick response was given. New player, hence very mild elim read. 

No more elim read on TUO because of the camp protect, but still find their item analysis very obvious. Like yes, everyone agrees with it, but that's because it's mainly stating the obvious. So agreeing with it, != village read. Also, would like to know why they changed from their initial plan of just using LoF to protect themselves. 

No more village read on Ventyl for jumping on Archer's reasoning. 

Ash is village on the whole, but that one point of "Archer contributed a good bit in D1" is nagging me.

Striker... is really sticking with the "found half the elim team" theory. I really don't know, confused. 

Bold mine.

If you’re saying what Illwei has done is to big of a slip for an elim to make, then isn’t what I’ve done the same? If elim!Ventyl was real, would I be so careless to just follow blindly someone else’s reasoning? The reasons for clearing Illwei and your suspicions of be are highly contradictory. It looks a lot like an elim!TJ trying to clear elim!Illwei by offering alternative lynch targets in Archer and myself.

(Sorry for the long quote)

[Shard of Reading he/him]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I doubt elims would be given an item useless to them, but even so, if I were evil I would have kept my mouth shut and not used it at all.

I'm going to say that first statement is completely false. The game when you, me, and Quinn were elims, Quinn was a rolescanner. It was the Ghostblood MR. So, it is possible that someone who was an elim would actually get a role/item that was pointless to them. I don't like that you said that because you should remember this.

[|TJ| he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Bold mine.

If you’re saying what Illwei has done is to big of a slip for an elim to make, then isn’t what I’ve done the same? If elim!Ventyl was real, would I be so careless to just follow blindly someone else’s reasoning? The reasons for clearing Illwei and your suspicions of be are highly contradictory. It looks a lot like an elim!TJ trying to clear elim!Illwei by offering alternative lynch targets in Archer and myself.

(Sorry for the long quote)

I'm not even offering you up for the elimination?? I just said that I'll be rescinding my previous village read of you which I had given after reading till the end of N1. 

I'm not even reading you as an elim, I didn't mention elim!Ventyl anywhere. No more village read is not equal to elim read. It means more like back to the drawing board. 

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

On a serious note, I don't think an elim would lie about it as it's the easiest way to get caught by crab users - much easier lies would be "protected myself" or "protected someone else"

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I used Line of Forbidden to protect myself too and I did not ask that in my GM PM, so it's either he phrases the questions himself or we have a 3rd LoF self-protector.

*cough cough*

That aside, does anyone want to hear my latest tinfoily theory?

 

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

I'm going to say that first statement is completely false. The game when you, me, and Quinn were elims, Quinn was a rolescanner. It was the Ghostblood MR. So, it is possible that someone who was an elim would actually get a role/item that was pointless to them. I don't like that you said that because you should remember this.

It was a QF, but that's irrelevant :P.

This is true. I remember it now but not when I posted that, and I realize it's false. I could say something about Elkanah being a chaotically fun GM but you're still right

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

That aside, does anyone want to hear my latest tinfoily theory?

why not... xD

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

*cough cough*

That aside, does anyone want to hear my latest tinfoily theory?

xD do we or do we not have a kill lmao :P. Also, protects can also be action scanned, which I didn't think of when writing the post, so if I was lying, I'd be caught in a lie too :P. 

[Archer he/him]

57 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

1.Lesser camp protects, lesser kill protects, lesser roleblocks, lesser action scans 

2.What exactly did Archer contribute? He made two posts of note, one which told he's going for bribe preemptively, and one in which he said he isn't voting for the main wagons and votes on Illwei, both these I'm not exactly comfortable. So, what is the good bit he contributed?

3.This whole post reads very much retroactive. Like a lots of things are "I had thought-" and "This was my thinking-" well why didn't you say so at the time? "It looked like a v/v wagon" why didn't you say so? "my gut said Matrim was a mis-vote"  well you didn't say a thing after initially mentioning Matrim was the suspicious of the village nulls. This paragraph sounds structured to make the past!you look good, when you did not say any of the things in the thread. 

4.My problem is not the fact that you grabbed the bribe. It's how you tried to reason it off as village. There were 6 bribes in the supply. The thief could have picked from those. I see absolutely no reason for you to offer it to the thief other than to appear non-threatening with the bribe and appear as village. The thief has no reason to believe you too. The continued insistence to get robbed reads very weird to me. 

 

5. I think @Sart sees the doubts asked in the thread (this one by Kas in particular), and phrases the questions himself and gives answers to them. At least that's how his clarifications seemed to me. The questions seem very formal, all of them. So I assume he's been phrasing them himself. I used Line of Forbidden to protect myself too and I did not ask that in my GM PM, so it's either he phrases the questions himself or we have a 3rd LoF self-protector. If any outed crab users saw someone target me, we probably have a suspect.

6. Archer. Suspicious of Lotus. Very mild elim read on the bystander. they were quiet rping till they are voted on upon which a quick response was given. New player, hence very mild elim read. 

 

I've chopped out everything I'm not responding to because that was a beautiful beast of a post. 

1. Fair point.

2. *shrugs* Sometimes people misremember when people said stuff. Or maybe he's trying to pocket bacon me. (pocket me using bacon)

3. Is being a coward an acceptable defense in these situations?  I'm not going to break a D1 tie or try to CW unless I have a good secondary target. I didn't have any, so I left it as is. Messing with votes is a good way to get read as an elim. I expressed my sympathy to Matrim in our PM, but didn't lift a finger to help them. It's a fair criticism. 

4. My reason for grabbing the bribe is I was planning for when the Supply runs out of Valuable items. I figured the Neutral could easily grab three or four items, then the fifth would be the hard one. It'd be worse if people started using the bribes. We don't need vote manipulation powers, so I took it and will sit on it until I am robbed. I could be robbed at any minute, it's very exciting. Hey, aren't you supposed to be the thief, TJ? I'm helping youu

5. I think he's used directs quotes for all the questions of mine he has answered

6. Unofficial Vote Count:

Illwei (5): Ashbringer, STINK, Striker, Archer, Ventyl 

Archer (5): Matrim, Random Bystander, Kas, TJ, Araris

Flyingbooks: Mist

*Illwei will probably self-pres if it comes to it

 

Hey Araris, any reason for the village Kas read? I had them down as a possible suspect. 

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Hey Araris, any reason for the village Kas read? I had them down as a possible suspect. 

They drew a line of Warding.

[Condensation she/her]

I'm not really suspicious of Archer. Can I get a vote count, @Sart?

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

why not... xD

K, cool! So. Looking at this from an elim perspective, the objective for them is to make sure the Camp is overrun, right? In order to do that, they need to avoid being exed and get as many mix's as possible. Sooo they need to be trusted, right? Obviously a D1 bus wouldn't be the worst idea since it doesn't lower the Hoard Strength, but that's very costly and only works for one person. So... what if they protected the camp N1 and made sure that there was a way to confirm it? The Camp almost certainly wasn't going to be overrun N1 since every villager had chalk and the Strength was so low. So the elims take a Lantern (TJ--or I suppose myself) and then one of them (Kas or TUO) draws a Line. The Lantern user gets a vil read for accurately reporting Defense, and the Line-drawer gets vil cred for Defending, but the elims don't actually lose anything but a Piece of Chalk. Then they can work on taking the other Lanterns (notice there are no more in the Supply and yet no one has claimed to have one) and Chalk and killing any villagers who had Lanterns (TJ or me--either one would explain the blocked kill since we both protected).

Scale of 1-10 how paranoid does that sound?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

My problem is not the fact that you grabbed the bribe. It's how you tried to reason it off as village. There were 6 bribes in the supply. The thief could have picked from those. I see absolutely no reason for you to offer it to the thief other than to appear non-threatening with the bribe and appear as village. The thief has no reason to believe you too. The continued insistence to get robbed reads very weird to me. 

If any outed crab users saw someone target me, we probably have a suspect.

Archer is strangely willing for a thief to steal from him. Since the thief gets a random item instead of a bribe, there's no reason it couldn't be the chalk that got stolen instead. Archer didn't claim a LoW and no votes were cancelled, but any other lines other than revocation would have gone before theft. Alternatively, he didn't fully read the rules, doesn't care if the thief got his chalk, or never had any to begin with.

Crabs used to be action scans, but in this game they just tell you what items someone has. Mostly good for something like confirming that someone actually used an item or finding out who snagged a valuable item at night. Lines of Making are the target scans.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, I think I'm mostly caught up, although I'm not entirely sure why Matrim isn't on the table today. I have a stronger suspicion of him now than I did during D1. If Matrim is elim, then Illwei is pretty suspicious. But there is no reason for elim!Illwei to swing the vote off of village!Mat.

 

E/E Illwei/Gears could have lead to her starting a new train on Dannex, but it would be easier for them to just not do the Striker vs. Mat analysis and stick a vote on Matrim and the Dannex vote peeled away more Matrim voters than Gears voters so it would have been a risky strategy to try.

54 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

I would agree with you on Ash having a stronger connection to Matrim than Illwei does--although, Ash did say in a group PM with me, Illwei, Matrim, and some others (before Dannex became an option, I mean) that he would prefer to exe Matrim over Gears, but thought both of them were village.

Was this before or after Matrim apparently claimed acid to Ash ~7 hours before rollover D1?

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm not even offering you up for the elimination?? I just said that I'll be rescinding my previous village read of you which I had given after reading till the end of N1. 

I'm not even reading you as an elim, I didn't mention elim!Ventyl anywhere. No more village read is not equal to elim read. It means more like back to the drawing board. 

Hm, well it read a lot like you were considering me as an elim.

But still your reason for putting me back on the drawing board is still contradictory. 

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Was this before or after Matrim apparently claimed acid to Ash ~7 hours before rollover D1?

Before, I just checked the timestamps for the PM and the message where Ash asked Mat to claim.

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Scale of 1-10 how paranoid does that sound?

5. Possible and a last ditch attempt if we're all suffering late game, I'd take it. But not yet.  

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Was this before or after Matrim apparently claimed acid to Ash ~7 hours before rollover D1?

It was roughly the same time, though I think I claimed Acid after. He was on the fence and then I think my claim pushed him over a bit so he felt good voting Dannex. Ninjad.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

5 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

K, cool! So. Looking at this from an elim perspective, the objective for them is to make sure the Camp is overrun, right? In order to do that, they need to avoid being exed and get as many mix's as possible. Sooo they need to be trusted, right? Obviously a D1 bus wouldn't be the worst idea since it doesn't lower the Hoard Strength, but that's very costly and only works for one person. So... what if they protected the camp N1 and made sure that there was a way to confirm it? The Camp almost certainly wasn't going to be overrun N1 since every villager had chalk and the Strength was so low. So the elims take a Lantern (TJ--or I suppose myself) and then one of them (Kas or TUO) draws a Line. The Lantern user gets a vil read for accurately reporting Defense, and the Line-drawer gets vil cred for Defending, but the elims don't actually lose anything but a Piece of Chalk. Then they can work on taking the other Lanterns (notice there are no more in the Supply and yet no one has claimed to have one) and Chalk and killing any villagers who had Lanterns (TJ or me--either one would explain the blocked kill since we both protected).

Scale of 1-10 how paranoid does that sound?

Maybe like a 5.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

5. Possible and a last ditch attempt if we're all suffering late game, I'd take it. But not yet.  

Just now, Ventyl said:

Maybe like a 5.

Huh well that's better than I thought XD I was expecting 9s and 10s

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

K, cool! So. Looking at this from an elim perspective, the objective for them is to make sure the Camp is overrun, right? In order to do that, they need to avoid being exed and get as many mix's as possible. Sooo they need to be trusted, right? Obviously a D1 bus wouldn't be the worst idea since it doesn't lower the Hoard Strength, but that's very costly and only works for one person. So... what if they protected the camp N1 and made sure that there was a way to confirm it? The Camp almost certainly wasn't going to be overrun N1 since every villager had chalk and the Strength was so low. So the elims take a Lantern (TJ--or I suppose myself) and then one of them (Kas or TUO) draws a Line. The Lantern user gets a vil read for accurately reporting Defense, and the Line-drawer gets vil cred for Defending, but the elims don't actually lose anything but a Piece of Chalk. Then they can work on taking the other Lanterns (notice there are no more in the Supply and yet no one has claimed to have one) and Chalk and killing any villagers who had Lanterns (TJ or me--either one would explain the blocked kill since we both protected).

Scale of 1-10 how paranoid does that sound?

The only issue I have with this is that it would mean only a single villager rolled to protect, which I find rather unlikely. I do find it interesting that Kas and Unknown were the two players that grabbed Chalk, and also happened to both defend the Camp. I agree with the principle that the elims could have protected the camp to earn trust, which is part of why I retain my suspicion of Matrim.

[STINK he/him]

Illwei

Archer

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

The only issue I have with this is that it would mean only a single villager rolled to protect, which I find rather unlikely. I do find it interesting that Kas and Unknown were the two players that grabbed Chalk, and also happened to both defend the Camp. I agree with the principle that the elims could have protected the camp to earn trust, which is part of why I retain my suspicion of Matrim.

Well, I mean, how many people actually agreed to do the RNG plan? The ones who were more active, yeah, but did Connie or TJ or Reading roll? We don't know. So I wouldn't be all that surprised if only a single villager rolled, tbh.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

8 minutes ago, STINK said:

Illwei

Archer

?

[Condensation she/her]

See, but I don't think Archer's being suspicious! Illwei because I'm more suspicious of them than Archer.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Condensation said:

See, but I don't think Archer's being suspicious! Illwei because I'm more suspicious of them than Archer.

HA! I KNEW there was Archer/Connie connections!

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 minutes ago, Condensation said:

See, but I don't think Archer's being suspicious! Illwei because I'm more suspicious of them than Archer.

You forgot the comma after Illwei

And I agree, I think Illwei has done a lot more questionable things than Archer. Maybe that’s just gut, but Idk.