Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[danex he/him]

21 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Why didn't you kill me last night? The way you're talking, you're 100% convinced that I'm an elim, and you're not even open to considering the possibility that I'm a villager. So if you're so sure about it, why didn't you kill me last night?

I have grown much more sure from what you’ve said this round. Believe me, if I survive, and if nothing has happened to change my mind, I will. Also I missed turnover and the last bit of last night.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Danex

[|TJ| he/him]

7 hours ago, Danex said:

I have grown much more sure from what you’ve said this round. Believe me, if I survive, and if nothing has happened to change my mind, I will. Also I missed turnover and the last bit of last night.

21 hours ago, Danex said:

TJ Shade- Elim. Started the vote against Books after it seemed like Ash was going to be lynched. Very suspicious.

This was before I made a single post this cycle. You said elim with conviction. Not "mild elim" or "strong elim". "Elim" like it was beyond any reasonable doubt for you. 

And can you please elaborate what you mean by "from what you've said this round"? I've only mentioned my suspicion towards you, which you've done nothing to allay. I'm really not able to understand your stand not to reply to any of my suspicion if you're a villager. I really don't.

[danex he/him]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

This was before I made a single post this cycle. You said elim with conviction. Not "mild elim" or "strong elim". "Elim" like it was beyond any reasonable doubt for you. 

I should clarify my rating system I guess. Just ‘Elim’ means neutral certainty. 
‘Mild Elim’ -> ‘Elim’ -> ‘Strong Elim’

feel like that should’ve been obvious? 

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm really not able to understand your stand not to reply to any of my suspicion if you're a villager. I really don't.

I don’t really have anything to say that I haven’t already. You’re evidently more firm on your position than I am. Also, I think you’re Elim, so I believe you won’t change your vote no matter how much I ‘convince’ you. 

[+Whysper she/her]

15 hours ago, Danex said:

I am a Loyal Mistborn. I have not used my kill. 

When you find out I’m telling the truth, do me a favor and vote out TJ.

I'm fairly sure TJ is a Villager, so please don't vote him nor kill him overnight.

I think we need to start removing some of the suspicious low-activity slots. We are already D5, so there has been enough time to get involved. The most suspicious slot is Lotus. They haven't been involved much except mostly to vote, and the voting patterns look opportunistic. They mentioned that they don't usually vote the first round of playing, yet voted for Turtle and gave no reasoning. When questioned about it, they didn't answer and are still avoiding answering.

18 hours ago, Lotus said:

19 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

 

Quote

Any reasoning why you voted on Turtle? You didn't mention it when you voted.

@Lotus, I don't think you answered this question.

Missed it. Uhh.... what round was that?

What does it matter which round? They should still be able to give a reasoning. Or there was enough time to go back and look by now if they needed to refresh their memory.

They also voted for Books, the CW to Ash, who flipped Elim. This looks like a possible attempt to save him.

So I haven't seen anything particularly Village from Lotus and a few things suspicious, so they get my vote.

Lotus

[+Lotus she/her]

My internet has been having major issues so if I disappear that's why.

I looked back at the round where I voted turtle, and I have to say, they were acting pretty odd. Their were a lot of suspicious things. Its also interesting to see how Ash pushed the vote on that, very interesting to look back. TJ shade also seemed to be interested in the turtle Lynch, although that could have been village.

Also, Whysper you said this:

Quote

"We already had good reason to suspect Turtle. At face value, the vote manipulation to save her just increases the suspicion."

The night before turtle was killed, after the vote manip and after I had expressed less suspicion of turtle because I feelt like it was a set up

On the whole Danex/TJ thing... Mmm I feel like Danex is acting very village but that could totally be intentional Elim distractions.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Lotus

[---]

I think I'm okay? with a Lotus vote. My main concern with this is that this is pretty much Lotus' playstyle. the QF was over very quickly, but she wasn't very active there either. I do think that a TJ vote would tell me more than Lotus, but my religion is against info kills that aren't on D1 :P. 

@Straw can we get a VC?

EDIT:

I'll have more to come in a bit

Edited November 5, 2020 by Illwei

[Condensation she/her]

3 hours ago, Whysper said:

I'm fairly sure TJ is a Villager, so please don't vote him nor kill him overnight.

I think we need to start removing some of the suspicious low-activity slots. We are already D5, so there has been enough time to get involved. The most suspicious slot is Lotus. They haven't been involved much except mostly to vote, and the voting patterns look opportunistic. They mentioned that they don't usually vote the first round of playing, yet voted for Turtle and gave no reasoning. When questioned about it, they didn't answer and are still avoiding answering.

What does it matter which round? They should still be able to give a reasoning. Or there was enough time to go back and look by now if they needed to refresh their memory.

They also voted for Books, the CW to Ash, who flipped Elim. This looks like a possible attempt to save him.

So I haven't seen anything particularly Village from Lotus and a few things suspicious, so they get my vote.

Lotus

Oh - that's true. Shoot. Danex for now.

Edit: To be clear, I'm taking that action for now, I want more reasoning for taking any other actions.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Condensation

[+Lotus she/her]

@Straw Can I get a vote count (when you have time, no rush)

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, Lotus said:

@Straw Can I get a vote count (when you have time, no rush)

 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

@Straw can we get a VC?

I think this is right:

Lotus (3): Araris Valerian, Whysper, Illwei

TJ Shade (2): Danex, The Windrunner Supreme

Danex (1): TJ Shade

[+Lotus she/her]

17 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think this is right:

Lotus (3): Araris Valerian, Whysper, Illwei

TJ Shade (2): Danex, The Windrunner Supreme

Danex (1): TJ Shade

Thank you.

In this case I'm going to put my vote on TJ shade in hope of self-preservation.

[|TJ| he/him]

Awake because I'm watching a football match in which my team is losing and I'm getting lynched. Sweet. On my phone so won't quote. @Danex, I don't know how you can say I've made up mind, when I've been literally asking you to answer my suspicion, to give me something to change my mind. It doesn't matter now, as I told I suspect a Danex-Lotus team. And Lotus having to go back to find why they voted on a player doesn't look good at all. I have to vote in self-preservation as well. Lotus

Edited November 5, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Mist, I see you watching the thread (unless you are AFK). Any thoughts?

[Mist she/her]

I think the elims may just be standing back and watching us target villagers repeatedly. 

I think Connie, Illwei, and Whysper are village. 

Reads:

Village: Connie, Illwei, Whysper

Mild village: XP, Araris, Danex, Elkanah

Null: Books, Wind

Kinda sus: Lotus, TJ, Vapor, Supreme

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Mist, I see you watching the thread (unless you are AFK). Any thoughts?

Hey hey hey guess what I'm doing

I'm tempted to make a tie. @Straw, could I get a vote count? 

[Straw he/him]

1 minute ago, Mist said:

@Straw, could I get a vote count? 

Lotus (4): Araris Valerian, Illwei, TJ Shade, Whysper
TJ Shade (3): Danex, Lotus, The Windrunner Supreme

[Straw he/him]

The turn is over!

[Straw he/him]

[Death RP by Lotus, go upvote her!]

The crewmates began to drag Sunwalker to the edge of the ship.

"I'm serious, it wasn't me! I don't even know what you are talking about! Anyone? Please help!"

His shouts were lost in the air of shadesmar.

Suddenly the group turned into a bloodbath, knives were drawn, yells drowning out all other noise. Sunwalker tried to crawl away through the chaos, but one of the crewmates grabbed him again and heaved him onto the rail.

A loose spear rammed into Sunwalker, pushing him over the rail and into the sea of beads.

The ship continued onward.

A day later, a Reacher ship saw a very confused Sunwalker begin to glow, his spear wound healing. "Ah man, I died again?!" He told the lightspren as he boarded the ship.

---

Lotus has died! She was a Loyal Regular.

Vote Count:

Lotus (5): Araris Valerian, Illwei, TJ Shade, Whysper
TJ Shade (2): Danex, Lotus, The Windrunner Supreme

GM Notes:

-The night will end on November 6th, at 5:00 PM EST.
-Don't forget to get your actions in!
-PMs are open! Remember to include me and Matrim.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Experience - Shard

2. Gears - ALASTAIR Loyal Regular

3. Ashbringer - Faleast Traitor Regular

4. @Illwei

5. Elandera Loyal Regular

6. @Condensation - Viola

7. eltruT - turtle Loyal Regular and Hemalurgist

8. @Elkanah

9. @Mist - Tria Noche

10. @Araris Valerian - Fade

11. @Lord_Silberfarben - Lord_Silberfarben

12. @Danex

13. @Whysper - Whysper

14. Ventyl - Lafay Etteax Loyal Regular

15. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel / Lotus Loyal Regular

16. @Vapor

17. @The Windrunner Supreme - COWS!

18. @Flyingbooks42

19. Devotary of Spontaneity - Orchid Loyal Feruchemist and Hemalurgist

20. @TJ Shade

21. Shard of Reading - Reading Loyal Regular

22. Amanuensis - Kon the Bard Loyal Mistborn

23. @A Windrunner - Wind

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Straw

[danex he/him]

Was there vote manipulation or is that a miscount?

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Danex said:

Was there vote manipulation or is that a miscount?

There was vote manipulation.

[|TJ| he/him]

Right, I'm the Feruchemist. Wouldn't know if someone would tie the score at the end, and that's why I manipulated the vote. 

Again, this should show I'm village as I didn't manipulate vote when I could have saved Ashbringer. Even if Books is elim, it wouldn't make sense for me to vote for Books in an attempt to save Ash and then not save Ash via vote manipulation. 

[danex he/him]

6 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Again, this should show I'm village as I didn't manipulate vote when I could have saved Ashbringer. Even if Books is elim, it wouldn't make sense for me to vote for Books in an attempt to save Ash and then not save Ash via vote manipulation. 

Mmmmmmmmm I don’t want to admit that this makes sense, but I think it does. Assuming you really are a Feruchemist. 

Someone manipulated a vote before iirc, was that you?

[---]

Okay, that was fun. Just got the rollover notification and realized that the turn was over. woohoo. 

@Elkanah can you be active at all?

Anyways, I have some things to think, so if anyone wants to PM me to talk? idk. I'm very tired right now. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Right, I'm the Feruchemist. Wouldn't know if someone would tie the score at the end, and that's why I manipulated the vote. 

Again, this should show I'm village as I didn't manipulate vote when I could have saved Ashbringer. Even if Books is elim, it wouldn't make sense for me to vote for Books in an attempt to save Ash and then not save Ash via vote manipulation. 

I think your Feruchemist claim makes sense, and that you are likely village (even disregarding the fact that I thought the Feruchemist was village for balance reasons prior to your reveal). 

I'm kind of suspicious of Mist for not voting last turn. Assuming TJ is the Feruchemist and is village, an elim would know that whoever they voted for would flip village. It's very possible that one of my reads on an inactive. Danex, if you are a village Mistborn, you might be best off killing someone that hasn't been engaging much with the thread, since it seems likely that most/all of the elims are hiding and letting us kill each other off.

[danex he/him]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

since it seems likely that most/all of the elims are hiding and letting us kill each other off.

I actually believe almost the opposite right now. Think about how poorly this game has been going. We’ve lynched a single Elim out of 9. Almost like we’re all being steered directly towards failure. I think the Elim team is almost entirely made of Active, Experienced players. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

If you had to pick 4 remaining players (plus the HI if you have any guesses as to their identity) to make up the elim team, who would they be?

Here's the list of living players with 10 or more games (nobody else has more than 2 according to the spreadsheet):

Araris - 90
Elkanah - 32
Silber - 15
Experience - 13
TJ - 11
Mist - 10
Vapor - 10
Illwei - 10

You could probably add Whysper as well, since she's played on another site.

[danex he/him]

13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If you had to pick 4 remaining players (plus the HI if you have any guesses as to their identity) to make up the elim team, who would they be?

Here's the list of living players with 10 or more games (nobody else has more than 2 according to the spreadsheet):

Araris - 90
Elkanah - 32
Silber - 15
Experience - 13
TJ - 11
Mist - 10
Vapor - 10
Illwei - 10

You could probably add Whysper as well, since she's played on another site.

You’ve played 90 games???? Wow. 

I think it might be......Silber, TJ, Mist, Elk? Maybe Experience too. Or you honestly. Probably not you. (Unless....)

TJ’s point about him being Feruchemist does make a lot of sense...but it might just be a really really smart Elim play. 

this game is making me too paranoid 

My only guess for HI is Illwei but I don’t know how much sense that makes. Only guess I have though.