Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Answer any questions?

Hm, yes, somewhat. I was told by another H that H4 never corrected anyone's grammar or anything, which was something offputting to me. I'd like to talk more tonight. 

[dannnex male]

So illwei and Connie have both claimed Hem?

hmmmmmmm

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Danex said:

So illwei and Connie have both claimed Hem?

I have never claimed Hemalurgist?

Recently Danex has been posting things that don't make me feel good. Danex is one of my suspicions right now. I'm giving room because they're new though...but still. I know that new != bad, especially at being an Elim. 

[dannnex male]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I have never claimed Hemalurgist?

Oh. Well, it’s pretty obvious you are, right?? I mean, If I can pick up on it, I think it’s pretty clear. You have a ton of insider Hem info, all claiming to be from PMs, but what would a Hem gain from telling you all of that?? It might make sense late-game, when they could be sure you were Village, but you cited your supposed ‘contact’ way back at the beginning of the game.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Fun fact: no. if we imply that, then we assume that 1) The elims assume no protection will be on her, and 2) that sets it up for the Elims to just kill someone else, knowing that we're going to kill her the next day. I say again, look at my previous post: no Hema claims should be killed until all village Hema's are dead.

While I agree that lynching Hemalurgists is dangerous, I'd argue that it is nearly equally dangerous to make claiming Hemalurgist a get-out-of-lynch-free card.

Also, I think the kill on Turtle was justified, since it allowed us to refocus the lynch today on new people. Without the kill, there likely would have been a significant push for a Turtle lynch today. Instead we get to look at an entirely new set of people, and we don't have to try and guess at Turtle's alignment.

[+Whysper she/her]

3 minutes ago, Danex said:

Oh. Well, it’s pretty obvious you are, right?? I mean, If I can pick up on it, I think it’s pretty clear. You have a ton of insider Hem info, all claiming to be from PMs, but what would a Hem gain from telling you all of that?? It might make sense late-game, when they could be sure you were Village, but you cited your supposed ‘contact’ way back at the beginning of the game.

Well now, you are either an Elim or an unwise Villager.  Even if you felt you picked up on this and think he's Hema, you really shouldn't point it out in the thread. It's not like it helps Village at this point since Illwei isn't in danger of getting lynched.

[Illwei]

Just now, Danex said:

but you cited your supposed ‘contact’ way back at the beginning of the game.

Yeah. It was Turtle. She backed me up on it, and I even cited the posts that made me think she was a Hemalurgist (honestly, pretty proud of myself for that :P.) 

Pointing out something like this, if you think it, is not in village's best interest, as I thought that you said you understood before. Danex

[dannnex male]

8 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Even if you felt you picked up on this and think he's Hema, you really shouldn't point it out in the thread. It's not like it helps Village at this point since Illwei isn't in danger of getting lynched.

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Pointing out something like this, if you think it, is not in village's best interest, as I thought that you said you understood before. Danex

I did, and I considered that, but as I said, I would be the very last person to pick up on something like this, I’m just stating the obvious here. If the Elims hadn’t already considered Illwei as a Hem, then I’m a lot better at this game than I thought. But I’m not. I consider this old and obvious news. 

All this ‘no, don’t say it out loud, you might tip off the Elims’ is a rather backwards way of thinking. They have a group Doc, they can communicate whenever and whatever they want. If even a single one of them had considered Illwei as a Hem, they’d all know about it. Stopping the flow of information for this reason is hindering us a lot more than it might hinder them. 
 

EDIT:

Also, Illwei, if I was Elim, what would I have to gain by voicing my suspicions publicly? I’d just tell the other Elims “hey, I think Illwei is Hem” in the doc. Posting my read publicly does nothing to help Elims, but it might help village, as if we still have a protector they could know who to save. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Danex

[Illwei]

The thing about this 

5 minutes ago, Danex said:

no, don’t say it out loud, you might tip off the Elims

is that it's right sometimes. If I had said D1 "Wow Turtle, you're so obviously an Elim. I mean I've Seen it so the Elims probably have already" then Turtle might have ended up dying N1 instead of Gears. if you have a suspicion like this and PMs exist, might be better to say something like that there.

In this case, Elims have already tried to kill me, they obviously thought I was a Hemalurgist two nights ago. However I don't see how this comment is productive at all. That's pretty much it. 

EDIT:

This all goes back to my TWTBAW thing. I'm terrible at being village tbh.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Illwei

[dannnex male]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

The thing about this 

is that it's right sometimes. If I had said D1 "Wow Turtle, you're so obviously an Elim. I mean I've Seen it so the Elims probably have already" then Turtle might have ended up dying N1 instead of Gears. if you have a suspicion like this and PMs exist, might be better to say something like that there.

In this case, Elims have already tried to kill me, they obviously thought I was a Hemalurgist two nights ago. However I don't see how this comment is productive at all. That's pretty much it. 

Still don’t see any evidence for me being Elim, just evidence that the comment is old news, which I already said. 

[Illwei]

Just now, Danex said:

Still don’t see any evidence for me being Elim, just evidence that the comment is old news, which I already said. 

Convince me you're not an Elim. Post some reads, place a vote.

[dannnex male]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Convince me you're not an Elim. Post some reads, place a vote.

Logical Fallacy, you’re the one making a claim, you’re the one that needs to present evidence. 

See: Salem Witch Trials/McCarthyism 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Danex

[Illwei]

Just now, Danex said:

Logical Fallacy, you’re the one making a claim, you’re the one that needs to present evidence. 

Fun fact: no. None of you are real people. There might be 6/7 Elims and 10 villagers. I have no reason to trust you. 

Post some reads, Place a vote.

[dannnex male]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Fun fact: no. None of you are real people. There might be 6/7 Elims and 10 villagers. I have no reason to trust you. 

Post some reads, Place a vote.

Still a Logical Fallacy. See: Salem Witch Trials, McCarthyism, etc. 

I have posted reads:
You are Hem. Connie is Elim. I voted for Connie, retracted because it is probably logical to wait on Hem claims, at least for now. 

Thats all irrelevant anyway, this is basic Logic 101, the person making the claim has to be the one to present the evidence. Basic fallacy here. Why do you think I’m Elim?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Danex said:

Logical Fallacy, you’re the one making a claim, you’re the one that needs to present evidence. 

See: Salem Witch Trials/McCarthyism 

Everyone here is guilty until proven innocent. 

[Illwei]

Just now, Danex said:

Thats all irrelevant anyway, this is basic Logic 101, the person making the claim has to be the one to present the evidence. Basic fallacy here. Why do you think I’m Elim?

I said before: This isn't Innocent until proven guilty. none of you are trustworthy until you prove to me that you are. Give me some reads besides two people, and calling someone a hemalurgist isn't a read.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

If all the Village Hemalurgists are dead, and those who claimed are still alive? kill those who are still alive. I've said this before and I will keep saying it until someone acknowledges it. 

Um, I don’t think we get notified that all village hemalurgists are dead. Presumably only the HI and the elims would know that this had happened.

Edit: I think it might be a good idea for some people to step back from this for a while. Things seem to be getting a little more heated than necessary.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[dannnex male]

18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Everyone here is guilty until proven innocent. 

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I said before: This isn't Innocent until proven guilty. none of you are trustworthy until you prove to me that you are.

I’m not saying Innocent until proven guilty, I’m saying the person making a claim has the responsibility to provide evidence. I’m not citing a Civil Law, or a Right, I’m citing a Logical Rule.

The same thing would be true in reverse, if everyone is Guilty until Proven innocent, and someone said ‘Dannex is Village’, it’d be up to them to provide the evidence, not me. 

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Give me some reads besides two people, and calling someone a hemalurgist isn't a read.

I actually am playing Innocent until Proven guilty, so those are the only reads I have. (I think it makes more sense to play Inno Until Proven Guilty because statistically there are more Village than Elims.) Also, this is my first game, I can’t play the meta, make guesses based on player’s past behavior, as I have no idea how you guys play. Also I haven’t been paying a ton of attention.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Danex

[Araris Valerian he/him]

10 minutes ago, Danex said:

(I think it makes more sense to play Inno Until Proven Guilty because statistically there are more Village than Elims.)

This reasoning sounds good, but if we assume everyone is innocent, then nobody gets lynched, and we all die to the elim kill. If we assume everyone is guilty, then we have to discuss which guilty person to lynch, which creates pressure and gives opportunities for people to provide evidence that they actually aren’t evil.

I also think an innocent until proven guilty mindset provides a great opportunity for elims to hide through inactivity. Since players with low activity levels don’t contribute, we can’t get evidence of their alignment.

Perhaps an important thing to keep in mind is that dead players can win the game (most village wins involve lots of dead players), and that dead players can still engage with the game and have fun through the spec doc. So the “moral” consequences of killing someone who actually turns out to be innocent are pretty small.

[Wind he/him]

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

This reasoning sounds good, but if we assume everyone is innocent, then nobody gets lynched, and we all die to the elim kill. If we assume everyone is guilty, then we have to discuss which guilty person to lynch, which creates pressure and gives opportunities for people to provide evidence that they actually aren’t evil.

I also think an innocent until proven guilty mindset provides a great opportunity for elims to hide through inactivity. Since players with low activity levels don’t contribute, we can’t get evidence of their alignment.

Perhaps an important thing to keep in mind is that dead players can win the game (most village wins involve lots of dead players), and that dead players can still engage with the game and have fun through the spec doc. So the “moral” consequences of killing someone who actually turns out to be innocent are pretty small.

Makes sense. @Danex tell me why I shouldn’t vote you!

[Straw he/him]

9 hours ago, Condensation said:

Alright, I guess I'll ask for a vote count. @Straw

I think this is correct:

Ashbringer (2): Araris Valerian, Whysper
Condensation (1): Vapor
Danex (1): Illwei

[|TJ| he/him]

@Condensation, I'm thinking about the Devotary kill, and usually they're very difficult to read. Did they give any indication about their identity in the doc? If not, we might be looking at someone who has been playing with Devotary for a while and/or exceptionally good at reading players. 

@Araris Valerian, you're probably the only player left who has played with Aman. Aman doesn't seem like a player who would ask others their kill option. He seems like he would just go for his best choice for the kill. Has he done this before when he had the village kill role?

Aman didn't seem to want to answer the questions about who wanted Turtle dead. Also, if he'd been asking questions about players' kill option, there's a big possibility that he would have contacted at least one elim. And I don't think elims would have taken the chance of a possible death of one of their own and let Aman live. 

@Ashbringer, I've been reading you village for quite a bit of the game, bar the parts where you seem hedgy, your village parts outweigh your elim parts. One thing stands out. Your reasoning to stick on Turtle. Why did you think Reading was also a Hemalurgist?

Basically going through Turtle voters at this point

@Flyingbooks42 had literally bandwagoned on the votes in the first 2 cycles of the game with one sentence votes, and then came with a long post after that. That reeks of a teammate asking them to do something other than just "agreeing" with reads.

@Lotus, you said "I don't normally do this" and proceeded to vote for Turtle. What is it that you not do normally?

Other voters include Experience, go made the case for Turtle. Seemed village at the time, but I'll go through his posts once more. TWS has also been bandwagon-y but their voting seems to be too out of order and suspicious to be from an elim, but definitely at least one of the bandwagon votes is from an elim.

Voting for Flyingbooks42 till I get answers to these questions. 

[Experience he/him]

24 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Condensation, I'm thinking about the Devotary kill, and usually they're very difficult to read. Did they give any indication about their identity in the doc? If not, we might be looking at someone who has been playing with Devotary for a while and/or exceptionally good at reading players. 

@Araris Valerian, you're probably the only player left who has played with Aman. Aman doesn't seem like a player who would ask others their kill option. He seems like he would just go for his best choice for the kill. Has he done this before when he had the village kill role?

Aman didn't seem to want to answer the questions about who wanted Turtle dead. Also, if he'd been asking questions about players' kill option, there's a big possibility that he would have contacted at least one elim. And I don't think elims would have taken the chance of a possible death of one of their own and let Aman live. 

@Ashbringer, I've been reading you village for quite a bit of the game, bar the parts where you seem hedgy, your village parts outweigh your elim parts. One thing stands out. Your reasoning to stick on Turtle. Why did you think Reading was also a Hemalurgist?

Basically going through Turtle voters at this point

@Flyingbooks42 had literally bandwagoned on the votes in the first 2 cycles of the game with one sentence votes, and then came with a long post after that. That reeks of a teammate asking them to do something other than just "agreeing" with reads.

@Lotus, you said "I don't normally do this" and proceeded to vote for Turtle. What is it that you not do normally?

Other voters include Experience, go made the case for Turtle. Seemed village at the time, but I'll go through his posts once more. TWS has also been bandwagon-y but their voting seems to be too out of order and suspicious to be from an elim, but definitely at least one of the bandwagon votes is from an elim.

Voting for Flyingbooks42 till I get answers to these questions. 

I actually attributed that to them being a new player...

[dannnex male]

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

This reasoning sounds good, but if we assume everyone is innocent, then nobody gets lynched, and we all die to the elim kill. If we assume everyone is guilty, then we have to discuss which guilty person to lynch, which creates pressure and gives opportunities for people to provide evidence that they actually aren’t evil.

I also think an innocent until proven guilty mindset provides a great opportunity for elims to hide through inactivity. Since players with low activity levels don’t contribute, we can’t get evidence of their alignment.

Perhaps an important thing to keep in mind is that dead players can win the game (most village wins involve lots of dead players), and that dead players can still engage with the game and have fun through the spec doc. So the “moral” consequences of killing someone who actually turns out to be innocent are pretty small.

You’re assuming that players won’t like....do anything. People say suspicious things, vote in suspicious ways. Maybe I misspoke, I’m not playing Innocent Until Proven Guilty, I’m playing Innocent Until They Do Something Reasonably Suspicious. 

Want more evidence? How many Villagers have I lynched? None. How many Villagers have you lynched? From my cursory scan, it seems like every single one of your votes has been towards someone who ended up being lynched as village, with the exception of Elk, who only survived because it was a tie and was randomly chosen. (By the way, what happened with that? Wouldn’t your next action be to vote Elk again, as they just barely survived? It’s like everyone just forgot about them.)

Not necessarily saying that’s suspicious enough for you to be Elim, but it’s definitely evidence that my playstyle is just as valid as yours, and that my playstyle definitely isn’t ‘evidence’ for me being Elim. 
 

Also, both you and Illwei are contradicting yourselves, you say you’re playing under the assumption that everyone is guilty, but you aren’t voting for everyone, are you? You have to choose whoever is ‘most’ guilty, which is almost the same as playing IUPG, it’s just “Less Guilty Until Proven More Guilty”.
Illwei, you’re voting for me. I will once again reiterate that the Burden of Proof falls on those making a claim, and ask why you think I’m Elim. Or why you think I’m “more” guilty than someone else. It’s rather suspicious that you refuse to have any, I don’t know, reasons for voting me, don’t you think? 

[|TJ| he/him]

27 minutes ago, Experience said:

I actually attributed that to them being a new player...

Yes, initially I did as well. But that long post just struck me odd. They were telling nothing, but comes with a long post out of nowhere, and then have said nothing ever since? Doesn't feel right. 

27 minutes ago, Danex said:

Want more evidence? How many Villagers have I lynched? None. How many Villagers have you lynched? From my cursory scan, it seems like every single one of your votes has been towards someone who ended up being lynched as village, with the exception of Elk, who only survived because it was a tie and was randomly chosen.

This doesn't actually make you look good by the way. The goal of villagers is to ensure that the people we are suspicious so get lynched. It's the elims who skirt suspicion by voting for players outside the main lynch so when people analyze the votes of a lynched villager, they are not in the spotlight. So no, it's definitely not a thing to feel good about. Seems like this is an attempt to paint yourself in the good light. Rings all sorts of wrong bells, this post.