Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I made a list of all of the possible scenarios for the attack on Mist that I could think of and my thought & questions about them. 

Possible kill scenarios: 

1. Danex & Elims both target Mist	Why might the Elims target Mist? Could they have an important role that the elims know of somehow? Indicates that Danex is likely Village, since there would be no point in wasting a Mistborn kill like that..
2. Elims don’t send in a kill	Indicates a very inactive Elim team & that Danex is likely Village, since he was fairly active.
3. Danex lies about having sent in a kill, elims target Mist	What motivation might Danex have to lie about using his Mistborn kill? Unless somebody can think of a plausible situation in which Danex would lie about sending in a kill, I think that this option is very unlikely. Why might the Elims target Mist? Could the elims think that they have an important role for some reason?
4. An Awakener roleblocking doesn’t appear in the GM post & Danex or an elim was roleblocked, Elims/Danex target Mist	Why might the Elims target Mist? It's unlikely that an elim was roleblocked because then whoever roleblocked would have probably said so by now, so of the 2 options it seems more likely that Danex was roleblocked.

 

Possible Mist survival scenarios:

a. Mist was saved by Elantrian/ killer roleblocked by Awakener	Most likely out of these 4 because the other options seem more unlikely
b. Mist is the HI	Unlikely because not claiming as a Voidbringer would increase suspicion, which is not what the HI would want, but it could theoretically be a double-bluff? I think this is the 2nd most likely
c. Mist is a village Voidbringer	Unlikely because Mist said that she’d claim if she was a Voidbringer, but still possible. 3rd most likely.
d. Mist is an elim Voidbringer	Unlikely, since the role is nearly useless for an Elim. Least likely

I disagree with several points here, but it’s 1AM for me right now, so I’ll address them sometime tomorrow.

I meant to edit this into my last post, whoops.

Edited November 10, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Okayokayokay

Done a quickish skim read of the threads. some thoughts, a lot of ?????? o_O?
I gotta say

The elims have done a good job of being not ellimy imo cause yeah.

I tried building a suspicion list of who I thought were villagers vs eliminators. A lot of players were constantly bouncing from hard evil to hard village to I HAVE NO IDEA.

Also I feel like I'm stepping into very very different shoes. I have a feeling if asked questions about elks behaviour I will not have answers for you I'm afraid. Idk how their brain works

Also there are peoples i don't recognise! Hello peoples! I am Burnt! Chatty gal who lives in pms, very indesicive, not much of an essay writer of sanity. I played the original version of this ruleset! I guess that makes me old? I look forward to meeting yall mostly in pms when night comes in theory assuming I remember to send messages and that they're still open and that you're willing to be messaged!

 

Things I noted from the read-through of the game:

People have been after mist a lot this game? people sus, but enough trust

only one dead evil- means a good amount of current players are likely evil. Given there's a lot of people seeming trustworthy, that concerns me.

condensation kinda chaotic but hemalurgist?

Danex sus but claimed mistborn so apparently, that makes it okay?

Thats a lot of villagers lynched. Interestingly, out of current living Araris has been part of every successful lynch. TJ and Whysper often key lynchers as well. See spoiler:

Spoiler

 

People who voted D1 who are still living

Player (who they voted for) (This person was lynched)

Araris (elk)
Whysper (elk)
TJ (ventyl)
Windrunner supreme (experience)
D2
Araris (elan)
Flyingbooks (elan)
TJ (elan)
Elkanah (turtle)
Whysper (turtle)
Mist (illweit)
Supreme (mist)

D3:
Araris (reading)
TJ (reading)
Whysper (reading)
Condensation (turtle)
Books (turtle)
Supreme (lotus)
D4
Araris (lotus)
TJ (lotus)
Whysper (Lotus)
Danex (tj)
Supreme (TJ)

D5
Araris (experience)
TJ (experience)
Whysper (experience)
Danex (tj)
Windrunner (tj)

 

It just always makes me concerned when the same people often vote together and lead the lynches. This makes me sus of Araris and TJ more than Whysper

 

The lack of death is interesting. The option id feel most likely is that danex is elim pretending to be mistborn so that the kill seems legit and like it is confirming their mistbornness but I'm a paranoid player. 

Its just like

at this stage

elims are being clever

so

face value don't mean much. Sneaky elims bus teammates, good elims don't ally themselves together

 

also also, sometimes if there's miscommunication and two elims try put in order those can cancel and nothing happens too, idk if that's a case in this game though but that's happened to me as elim before so can add that to the list of possible explanations

also also also while the going after inactive cause probably elims is a good call, I'd recommend making sure that if we do lynch a quiet folk, that is there actually info we can learn if they are evil? 

 

anyways I'm still getting my head around what I think about each people, this is just my initial having read things thoughts. Araris i will never trust ( <3 past experience, I'm sure you understand, take it as me thinking highly of your ability), so I can fully see him being evil despite his parts in the ashbringer lynch (imo everything he did there would be a very good elim play to gain the trusts, but idk), and Danex has me concerned from the kill stuff

 

feel free to ask me clarifications on that mess of stream of thought I will try formulate more thoughts on request?

sidenote- how many actions can people do in one turn? is it just one? Like, could someone protect and do the elim kill at the same time? could that be another potential thingy that happened? like, the active elim who normally doing the kills choosing to do a different action out of necessity or something...?

 

[Straw he/him]

8 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Straw, I'd imagine "attacked but survived" is written only if the target is protected by Elantrian, or is immune to kills (Voidbringer or HI). The message is NOT given if the attacker is roleblocked right?

Quote

Is there a difference in the writeup between the different ways a kill can fail (or are failed kills even revealed)?
Kill failures will not be distinguished. Any kill failure will be announced, provided the kill does happen. So kills stopped due to Elantrians/HI/Voidbringers will be announced, but kills roleblocked by Awakeners will not be.

 

38 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

also also, sometimes if there's miscommunication and two elims try put in order those can cancel and nothing happens too, idk if that's a case in this game though but that's happened to me as elim before so can add that to the list of possible explanations

I take the last elim kill to be submitted. Elim kills do not cancel out.

38 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

sidenote- how many actions can people do in one turn? is it just one? Like, could someone protect and do the elim kill at the same time? could that be another potential thingy that happened? like, the active elim who normally doing the kills choosing to do a different action out of necessity or something...?

There is only one action per turn, so elims cannot both kill and take another action.

[|TJ| he/him]

27 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Player (who they voted for) (This person was lynched)

Araris (elk)
Whysper (elk)
TJ (ventyl)
Windrunner supreme (experience)

You just killed yourself there. xD It was Ventyl who was lynched and not you.  

31 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

The lack of death is interesting. The option id feel most likely is that danex is elim pretending to be mistborn so that the kill seems legit and like it is confirming their mistbornness but I'm a paranoid player. 

Yeah, I feel the same as I've already stated before. I'm sorry, I find it harder to believe that elims would go inactive than Danex fake-claiming Mistborn. Last time I thought elim team was inactive, most of them were indeed active (*cough* LG67). 

7 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

Mist is an elim Voidbringer

Unlikely, since the role is nearly useless for an Elim. Least likely

Actually why is this role useless for an elim? A double life is equally useful to players irrespective of their alignment. There's no reason why she's not an elim Voidbringer. What really got me looking into Mist is, I started going back through Ashbringer's posts and he mentions her as his village read, which is weird because there was no real reason why anyone would read her as village at that point. Mist wasn't on (or at least she didn't post) during the night as well. Ahh, this might not seem like a good idea, but I'm confident about it for some reason. Mist.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Araris i will never trust

8 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

What motivation might Danex have to lie about using his Mistborn kill?

The thing here is we don’t know that Danex is actually Mistborn.

8 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

Unlikely, since the role is nearly useless for an Elim. Least likely

Given 2 village Mistborn, I would not at all be surprised if there is an elim Voidbringer. Which is actually a point in favor of lynching Mist. If Mist actually is the HI, we waste a lynch, but that would sort of balance out the lost elim kill, so it doesn’t put us closer to LyLo, and also means that there is no worry of lynching the HI in the future. I’m going to stick to my guns for now, but I’d like to hear suspicions and/or votes from all of @Vapor, @Mist, and @Danex.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

24 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

You just killed yourself there. xD It was Ventyl who was lynched and not you.  

 

aah storms i had it right in my notes but messed up on the transfer here whoooops >.< thanks

[dannnex male]

Mist could you please elaborate on this? 

11 hours ago, Mist said:

I won't lie explicitly with my words, so if I were village and not a Voidbringer, I wouldn't claim. 

This is very confusing, and also very suspicious. Are you claiming that you aren’t Voidbringer? You know that means the only options are HI, or protected right? And why would anyone protect Mist? She wasn’t under any major suspicion that night, nobody thought she was Hem or anything, seems like a weird target for an Elantrian. That means the only option left is HI, or they were protected by an Elim. Either way, Mist is Elim, just not sure if she’s HI or not. My guess is that she is. 

[Condensation she/her]

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

That’s my point. I think the best explanation of the events last night is that no elim kill was sent in. The best explanation of that is a bunch of elims that were gone, like you. For now, I’ll vote on Vapor. I’d like to fine Burnt at least one cycle to catch up before lynching her, and I haven’t picked up on anything to distinguish between Vapor and Wind at this point.

That’s complicated. As an elim, you want to kill trusted villagers, kill power roles, and deny information. Actually deciding which of those three goals to prioritize would come down to what is happening in the thread. This game has the added complication of the Hemalurgists, but that’s the general idea. You could read some of the elim docs that I have been in to get a better idea of my thought process. Most recently were LG 67, MR 40, and LG 57. The MR was a loss for me, the other two were wins.

Okay, good to know. Thanks! And the Hemalurgists are a complication because... you also want to get them killed?

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

The thing here is we don’t know that Danex is actually Mistborn.

Given 2 village Mistborn, I would not at all be surprised if there is an elim Voidbringer. Which is actually a point in favor of lynching Mist. If Mist actually is the HI, we waste a lynch, but that would sort of balance out the lost elim kill, so it doesn’t put us closer to LyLo, and also means that there is no worry of lynching the HI in the future. I’m going to stick to my guns for now, but I’d like to hear suspicions and/or votes from all of @Vapor, @Mist, and @Danex.

I agree. Mist? Vapor? I think one of you is against us, whether it be elim or HI.

[+Whysper she/her]

16 hours ago, Danex said:

I did indeed attack mist. I don’t know what to make of the fact she survived. Possible HI? If anyone protected Mist could you Roleclaim and say why?

I'm strongly suspecting that she is indeed the HI.

16 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think there are 3 ways Mist could have survived. Protection from an Elantrian, being a Voidbringer, or being the HI. I don’t see any reason for a village Elantrian to protect Mist, so there’s not a bad chance that Mist is elim/HI. Assuming you are telling the truth about sending in the kill, and that it wasn’t the elims that did it, it might be worth it to lynch Mist.

I’m not sure whether it is more likely that you are lying about your action, or that the elims didn’t send in a kill. I guess I’d lean toward the latter, since the elim team behavior so far seems to have been kind of sub-optimal, and they could all be inactive at this point.

I agree that it's very unlikely that a Village Elantrian protected Mist. If one did, we might need to have them claim at some point just so we can clarify if Mist is HI. When I skimmed through some later posts, I didn't see Mist claim to be Voidbringer. So yeah, I agree that lynching Mist just to check might be worth doing. We'll see what else comes up and decide.

16 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

So I guess the remaining question is whether anyone is an Awakener that used their action. Because it's possible someone was roleblocked, and that would basically guarantee us an elim lynch.

Ahhh yes, good point. If someone did happen to roleblock a player, then we have a known Elim.

14 hours ago, Straw said:

Note: @Burnt Spaghetti has replaced Elkanah, effective immediately. Please welcome her to the game! 

Welcome, Burnt!

14 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I think that it's likely that an Awakener roleblocked Danex, since Danex thinks that TJ is suspicious while many other people don't. The Awakener might have been trying to save TJ because he's likely a village feruchemist, which will be an even more important role now that the elims make up a significant percentage of living players.

I doubt this, but if an Awakener did happen to do this, we might want a claim since that will clarify the events. This would mean the Elims did indeed target Mist and didn't forget to submit a kill.

14 hours ago, Danex said:

I am suspicious of TJ, but too many people said that they think he’s village, so I went with a Mist target instead. I could conclude that all of those people are Elims too, but even I can see that that would be a little much.

Thank you for considering things in regards to what might be best as a team.

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Village!Mist would almost certainly claim Voidbringer, so Mist is likely the HI.

Huh? Why would Village Mist claim something they are not? That wouldn't be good as Village to fake claim.

10 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I find it more plausible that Danex would use the elim kill to pretend as the Mistborn kill and feign innocence about the lack of elim kill.

I'm not understanding why you are thinking Danex would fake claim Mistborn in the first place? What would be the purpose as Elim?

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Elims are probably inexperienced and/or inactive. They apparently didn’t send in a kill last cycle (this depends on Danex being village), killed Aman when he was inactive and also not really cleared, and failed to kill TJ despite him having a vote manipulation role that makes him extremely powerful.

This means you are kind of suspect, along with Vapor, Condensation, Silber, and Wind. I think everyone else was around during the night, although I need to check

This is basically my view of things at this point as well. Along with that PoE you listed, though it's larger than I'd like since we probably don't have many more cycles. We would want to put Condensation towards the end because of her Hema claim.

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Another thing, why would the elims attack Mist?

Actually they might have suspected that she was a Hema for some reason. That would be my best guess.

10 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Someone like myself, you, Whysper, or Condensation (a Hemalurgist) would be far better than someone who isn’t voting at all. Of course, the elims clearly don’t prioritize their kills the same as me, but I think my point is somewhat valid regardless.

Yeah, the night kills are certainly baffling. The only other point I can think of is that they are worried that one of these targets would be protected by the Elantrian, so they are whittling away at other targets.

Okay, gotta stop my post here. I'll continue through the thread later when I get more time. Things are actually getting rather interesting now.

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Huh? Why would Village Mist claim something they are not? That wouldn't be good as Village to fake claim.

There was an underlying assumption with this statement that the only scenario in which Mist is village is if she actually is a Voidbringer. Hence the claim wouldn't be fake.

3 minutes ago, Whysper said:

This is basically my view of things at this point as well. Along with that PoE you listed, though it's larger than I'd like since we probably don't have many more cycles. We would want to put Condensation towards the end because of her Hema claim.

Silber and Condensation were actually active during the Night. So if the issue is that the elims were inactive, we can probably focus on the other three, at least for now.

Edited November 10, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Condensation she/her]

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

This is basically my view of things at this point as well. Along with that PoE you listed, though it's larger than I'd like since we probably don't have many more cycles. We would want to put Condensation towards the end because of her Hema claim.

He 'edited' that list because I was around during the night and Vapor was gone. I think. Right, Araris?

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

I'm not understanding why you are thinking Danex would fake claim Mistborn in the first place? What would be the purpose as Elim?

Danex had 3 votes on him at the time. It's a very good claim to make to get out of a lynch, seeing as everyone would not want an extra kill to go to waste. And the votes did whittle down. Both Illwei and Connie retract their votes on Danex post his claim.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Condensation said:

He 'edited' that list because I was around during the night and Vapor was gone. I think. Right, Araris?

Yeah, and I just mentioned that in an edit to my post above as well.

[Condensation she/her]

Thanks.

[dannnex male]

I’m not sure who to vote for. We could try a Mist lynch, just to see if she’s HI. If she survives again she most likely is. 

I think I’m also rather suspicious of Connie right now, the Elims haven’t even tried to kill her since her Hem claim. Sure, they might assume that an Elantrian will be protecting her, but they didn’t even try once. 

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Danex had 3 votes on him at the time. It's a very good claim to make to get out of a lynch, seeing as everyone would not want an extra kill to go to waste. And the votes did whittle down. Both Illwei and Connie retract their votes on Danex post his claim.

if I was going to fake claim to get out of a lynch, I’d claim something better, like Hem. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Danex said:

if I was going to fake claim to get out of a lynch, I’d claim something better, like Hem. 

Hemalurgist is a bit dangerous, since you would probably need to prove your role using the doc. If you didn't have access, that would be pretty easy to discover.

[Condensation she/her]

Oh, can I do that? Like, get on the doc(I haven't been on in a while, yikes!) and say something like "Hey, this is Connie. I'm H6! And you already knew that because I claimed on the thread!"? Then other Hemalurgists could confirm. Has anyone else claimed? I forget.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Nobody has claimed Hemalurgist since you have.

[dannnex male]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Hemalurgist is a bit dangerous, since you would probably need to prove your role using the doc. If you didn't have access, that would be pretty easy to discover.

True, but you see, I’m dumb, so I would probably still claim Hem. it’s all irrelevant anyway, because I am a village mistborn, and I did use my kill on Mist. 

I did think of another possibility, maybe I was roleblocked, like I had a high suspicion I would be (the awakeners might’ve assumed I was going to target TJ, whom they believed to be village) and the Elims just happened to also target Mist. Coincidental? yes. Unlikely? Maybe. But it could explain the weird situation where there isn’t an apparent Elim kill.

I suppose the inverse is also true, maybe an awakener happened to RB an Elim, and my attack was the one that Mist survived from, but I think it’s more likely that I was RBed, because of the whole TJ thing. 
 

Edit: actually, Elim!me probably would still claim Hem, and we know that there’s at least one Elim Hem, right? So Elim!me would talk with that person in the Elim doc, and they could impersonate me in the Hem Doc. It could save me from an immediate lynch, and then if suspicion rises toward me again, the real Elim hem is safer. 
But I didn’t do that, so I’m village. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by Danex

[Condensation she/her]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Nobody has claimed Hemalurgist since you have.

Okay, hmm. Then no one could/would confirm my claim if I went on and did that.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Danex said:

I did think of another possibility, maybe I was roleblocked, like I had a high suspicion I would be (the awakeners might’ve assumed I was going to target TJ, whom they believed to be village) and the Elims just happened to also target Mist. Coincidental? yes. Unlikely? Maybe. But it could explain the weird situation where there isn’t an apparent Elim kill.

Straw confirmed that the write-up wouldn't show "attacked but survived" because your kill doesn't go through at all. Since the write-up did tell "attacked but survived", your kill went through and you weren't roleblocked. So, Mist is HI or Voidbringer or Protected. I don't believe anyone would protect Mist (unless there's a elim!Elantrian protecting elim!Mist), so my guess is Voidbringer or HI. 

8 minutes ago, Danex said:

I suppose the inverse is also true, maybe an awakener happened to RB an Elim, and my attack was the one that Mist survived from, but I think it’s more likely that I was RB, because of the whole TJ thing. 

This means the Awakener should have claimed by now because their target is most probably an elim. So the lack of a claim by Awakener makes me think this isn't the case as well. Maybe they are waiting for the Night turn to claim in PMs. But that shouldn't be the case as we're close to losing, so we need an elim lynch this cycle.

[dannnex male]

6 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Straw confirmed that the write-up wouldn't show "attacked but survived" because your kill doesn't go through at all. Since the write-up did tell "attacked but survived", your kill went through and you weren't roleblocked. So, Mist is HI or Voidbringer or Protected. I don't believe anyone would protect Mist (unless there's a elim!Elantrian protecting elim!Mist), so my guess is Voidbringer or HI. 

You misunderstood, but it doesn’t really matter because we’re still on the same page, kinda. 
I said I could’ve been roleblocked, but the Elims weren’t. So the Elims were the one who’s kill went through, and Mist survived the Elim kill, while mine was just roleblocked. 

It explains the weirdness of having no apparent Elim target, but it is dependent on the possibility that Me and the Elims both happened to target the same person. 
 

It doesn’t really matter because the conclusion is basically the same, Mist is most likely Elim. Probably HI.

[Vapor she/her]

10 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Yeah, that seems fair. They did seem like they wanted to kill trusted villagers (or suspected Hems?) when they killed Illwei.

Yes, that makes you a suspect.  

Oooh that makes sense

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

The thing here is we don’t know that Danex is actually Mistborn.

Given 2 village Mistborn, I would not at all be surprised if there is an elim Voidbringer. Which is actually a point in favor of lynching Mist. If Mist actually is the HI, we waste a lynch, but that would sort of balance out the lost elim kill, so it doesn’t put us closer to LyLo, and also means that there is no worry of lynching the HI in the future. I’m going to stick to my guns for now, but I’d like to hear suspicions and/or votes from all of @Vapor, @Mist, and @Danex.

Village: Whysper

Slight Village: Mist, Danex

Null: Araris, Wind

Slight Elim: Condensation, maybe TJ

Haven't payed enough attention: Elk, Silber, Supreme, Books

[Condensation she/her]

See, but if we lynch Mist and she survives, isn't that not what we want? Then we know that she's the HI, but the elims can be certain that she is. I think it's probably best to leave well enough alone for now and focus on someone else.

[dannnex male]

3 minutes ago, Condensation said:

See, but if we lynch Mist and she survives, isn't that not what we want? Then we know that she's the HI, but the elims can be certain that she is. I think it's probably best to leave well enough alone for now and focus on someone else.

It doesn’t matter if the Elims know who the HI is, but we definitely need to know. The only way the HI can die is from a lynch, Elims can’t kill them. And we definitely want the HI to stay alive. So we need to know who the HI is, so we don’t lynch them after the Village Hems are dead. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by Danex