Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Danex said:

It doesn’t matter if the Elims know who the HI is, but we definitely need to know. The only way the HI can die is from a lynch, Elims can’t kill them. And we definitely want the HI to stay alive. So we need to know who the HI is, so we don’t lynch them. 

But the HI can't die from a lynch, and we probably don't want the elims to know who it is. Right? Because then they can collaborate and the HI knows who they can trust with all of their role-scanning info.(They can role-scan, right? I seem to remember that.)

[|TJ| he/him]

59 minutes ago, Condensation said:

But the HI can't die from a lynch, and we probably don't want the elims to know who it is. Right? Because then they can collaborate and the HI knows who they can trust with all of their role-scanning info.(They can role-scan, right? I seem to remember that.)

We're close to LyLo already, Connie. So it doesn't matter that HI reveals their scan to elims. Elims will take at least 2 more nights (possibly 3 as well) if we do not lynch Hems in the Day. They might as well go for the normal win now. 

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

We're close to LyLo already, Connie. So it doesn't matter that HI reveals their scan to elims. Elims will take at least 2 more nights (possibly 3 as well) if we do not lynch Hems in the Day. They might as well go for the normal win now. 

Okay. Normal win like having more than the villagers?

[Flyingbooks]

What's LyLo? I've been hearing that term a lot, but I don't know what it means.

[Mist she/her]

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Mist could you please elaborate on this? 

This is very confusing, and also very suspicious. Are you claiming that you aren’t Voidbringer? You know that means the only options are HI, or protected right? And why would anyone protect Mist? She wasn’t under any major suspicion that night, nobody thought she was Hem or anything, seems like a weird target for an Elantrian. That means the only option left is HI, or they were protected by an Elim. Either way, Mist is Elim, just not sure if she’s HI or not. My guess is that she is. 

I'm saying I won't lie. I have made no claims.

1 hour ago, Danex said:

I’m not sure who to vote for. We could try a Mist lynch, just to see if she’s HI. If she survives again she most likely is. 

I think I’m also rather suspicious of Connie right now, the Elims haven’t even tried to kill her since her Hem claim. Sure, they might assume that an Elantrian will be protecting her, but they didn’t even try once. 

if I was going to fake claim to get out of a lynch, I’d claim something better, like Hem. 

It wouldn't be most likely. Voidbringers cannot survive a lynch. If I survive a lynch, you can be sure that my role is HI.

1 hour ago, Vapor said:

Oooh that makes sense

Village: Whysper

Slight Village: Mist, Danex

Null: Araris, Wind

Slight Elim: Condensation, maybe TJ

Haven't payed enough attention: Elk, Silber, Supreme, Books

Why???

8 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

What's LyLo? I've been hearing that term a lot, but I don't know what it means.

It means Lynch or Lose, as in an elim must be voted out or the elims win.

Edited November 10, 2020 by Mist

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Okay. Normal win like having more than the villagers?

Yes. Or equal to villagers in this game.

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Yes. Or equal to villagers in this game.

Okay. And the other win is if . . . shoot. If the HI dies and the villagers vote out an elim.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

10 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Okay. And the other win is if . . . shoot. If the HI dies and the villagers vote out an elim.

But that can only happen if all village Hemalurgists die first, which will almost certainly not happen before the game ends. It's still technically possible, but unless Mist isn't the HI, it's not something worth worrying about anymore.

Edited November 10, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

But that con only happen if all village Hemalurgists die first, which will almost certainly not happen before the game ends. It's still technically possible, but unless Mist isn't the HI, it's not something worth worrying about anymore.

That's very true. So right now it's not as important to protect the Hemalurgists, it's more important to find and protect villagers/find and lynch elims?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Our goal was always to find/lynch the elims. Villagers are going to die no matter what (and you can't really "find" a villager), and we don't really have a way to protect Hemalurgists to begin with, aside from just not lynching them.

[dannnex male]

So I think I’ll hesitantly vote for Condensation

She hasn’t been targeted by the Elims at all, even though she claimed Hem. And we know there’s at least one Elim Hem, so there’s at least a 1/6 chance she could be Elim. I don’t know if I’ll stick with this vote, but it’s the best I can think of right now.
Silber is probably my next guess, mainly because he’s dead quiet, but that also seems to just be his playstyle from what I’ve heard. 

[Condensation she/her]

I'm going to challenge this because I know I'm not an elim.

How do we know that you're not an elim using this exact strategy to get people to lynch me? I'm fairly certain that you pointed out previously that if I wasn't NKed then I would be elim, which was quickly shot down by two people(one of which was me, but...) because it's unreasonable. I've never been an elim so I don't know what strategies I would take, but I've been thinking it through to see who I think might be an elim and that seems like what I would do. You know, point out something that the elims would 'certainly' do and then if it doesn't happen then we need to lynch this person. "If that strategy isn't thought of, then we can night-kill someone else and the villagers will lynch this other villager for us." Sorry, it just seems off to me.

Also, has anyone else noticed that there's one vote on each of the Water Sisters? Just something funny I noticed.

[dannnex male]

9 minutes ago, Condensation said:

How do we know that you're not an elim using this exact strategy to get people to lynch me?

What strategy?? I have no idea what you’re talking about. 

9 minutes ago, Condensation said:

I'm fairly certain that you pointed out previously that if I wasn't NKed then I would be elim, which was quickly shot down by two people(one of which was me, but...) because it's unreasonable.

true, but it’s been like 3 nights now, and you haven’t even been targeted. Not a single time. The Elims primary goal is to kill all the Village Hems, then they can basically get an instant win. They haven’t even tried to kill you, whether it be through night kills or forcing a lynch in the day. Not even tried. 

9 minutes ago, Condensation said:

You know, point out something that the elims would 'certainly' do and then if it doesn't happen then we need to lynch this person.

Thinking like an Elim is the main way you find out who the Elims are. You have to think about what they would do. Profiling, playing the Meta, thinking in what-ifs and how-comes. It’s the point of the game. 
 

If you are village, can you think of a reason for why the Elims haven’t even tried to kill you??? 

Edited November 10, 2020 by Danex

[Condensation she/her]

Just now, Danex said:

What strategy?? I have no idea what you’re talking about. 

true, but it’s been like 3 nights now, and you haven’t even been targeted. Not a single time. The Elims primary goal is to kill all the Village Hems, then they can basically get an instant win. They haven’t even tried to kill you, whether it be through night kills or forcing a lynch in the day. Not even tried. 

Thinking like an Elim is the main way you find out who the Elims are. You have to think about what they would do. Profiling, playing the Meta, thinking in what-ifs and how-comes. It’s the point of the game. 

Strategy stated afterwards. It's the third quote you used, I think.

Forcing a lynch? How would they do that? I mean, especially without looking suspicious when I'm a Loyal Regular and Hemalurgist.

What's playing the Meta? Also, you can't know what the elims would or should do unless you know who the elims are because everyone has a different playing style.

[Vapor she/her]

1 hour ago, Mist said:

Why???

For which one? Most of it is based on activeness, how much of their stuff I've read, ect.

 

[|TJ| he/him]

C'mon, Danex. This is what Illwei didn't want us to do. 1/6 is not a chance I'm willing to take. We'd be just be doing elims work for them.

The last time elims tried to call the bluff on the Elantrian when I asked them to protect Illwei, it failed and they lost a kill. It's believable that didn't attempt it again, and are trying to win this without attempting to kill the Hems.

Besides, Connie told she and Turtle revealed their identities and deleted it in the doc in D1. So the fact that Turtle survived N1 is proof enough that Connie isn't an elim. 

Edited November 11, 2020 by TJ Shade
There you go, Connie. :P

[Condensation she/her]

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

C'mon Danex. This is what Illwei didn't want us to do. 1/6 is not a chance I'm willing to take. We'd be just be doing elims work for them.

The last time elims tried to call the bluff on the Elantrian when I asked them to protect Illwei, it failed and they lost a kill. It's believable that didn't attempt it again, and are trying to win this without attempting to kill the Hems.

Besides, Connie told she and Turtle revealed their identities and deleted it in the doc in D1. So the fact that Turtle survived N1 is proof enough that Connie isn't an elim. 

One thing: there should be a comma in between "C'mon" and "Danex". Thanks, TJ.

Can I get a vote count? @Straw

Edited November 11, 2020 by Condensation

[Straw he/him]

7 hours ago, Condensation said:

One thing: there should be a comma in between "C'mon" and "Danex". Thanks, TJ.

Can I get a vote count? @Straw

Condensation (1): Danex
Mist (1): TJ Shade
The Windrunner Supreme (1): The Windrunner Supreme
Vapor (1): Araris Valerian

[|TJ| he/him]

44 minutes ago, Straw said:

Condensation (1): Danex
Mist (1): TJ Shade
The Windrunner Supreme (1): The Windrunner Supreme
Vapor (1): Araris Valerian

I think TWS was just copying and pasting my post, Straw. xD 

[dannnex male]

11 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Besides, Connie told she and Turtle revealed their identities and deleted it in the doc in D1. So the fact that Turtle survived N1 is proof enough that Connie isn't an elim. 

Hmmm, maybe. Looking back at D1 though, Connie might not have really understood what the goals of the Elims were. And turtle was killed eventually, maybe after Connie figured it out?

While I’m not completely convinced, it is a good enough point for me to Condensation.

Edit: I found this list of Ash’s reads from earlier, have we analyzed this since we found out they were Elim? Could be insightful. 

Quote

Okay, seeing as it's really quiet here's my "gut" reads so far. I'll post it again once I can look through the rest of the threads more and will adjust as necessary.

Edit: By "post again", I mean "post again with reasons for what I'm saying".

 

Village: Illwei, TJ Shade 

Mild Village: Aman, Whysper, Mist

Very Mild Village (Odd-but-good): Elkanah, Araris, Devotary

Null: Silber, Lotus, Wind, Windrunner Supreme (for activity); Vapor, Reading, Danex (nothing's stuck out), Turtle (for other reasons). Will look at the last 4 more.

Very Mild Elim (Odd-and-not-good): Condensation, Books

Mild Elim: NA

Elim: NA

 

Edited November 11, 2020 by Danex

[Straw he/him]

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I think TWS was just copying and pasting my post, Straw. xD 

If they were indeed quoting your post, then it should be in a quote box or quotation mark. I'll keep it as a valid vote since it was in the main body of their post. I'll ping @The Windrunner Supreme so he can clarify.

[+Whysper she/her]

23 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

There was an underlying assumption with this statement that the only scenario in which Mist is village is if she actually is a Voidbringer. Hence the claim wouldn't be fake.

Ahh okay. Yeah, either Voidbringer or healed by Elantrian. I think we can pretty much assume she's HI.

23 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Danex had 3 votes on him at the time. It's a very good claim to make to get out of a lynch, seeing as everyone would not want an extra kill to go to waste. And the votes did whittle down. Both Illwei and Connie retract their votes on Danex post his claim.

Hmm, okay. I see your reasoning now. Still, I don't think it likely he'd make that claim. But I'll keep it in mind.

23 hours ago, Danex said:

I’m not sure who to vote for. We could try a Mist lynch, just to see if she’s HI. If she survives again she most likely is. 

22 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So, Mist is HI or Voidbringer or Protected. I don't believe anyone would protect Mist (unless there's a elim!Elantrian protecting elim!Mist), so my guess is Voidbringer or HI. 

Originally I was thinking it might be good to lynch Mist to verify her as HI. But I think we can pretty safely assume she is HI and ignore lynching her unless we happen to accidentally lynch the real HI.

23 hours ago, Danex said:

I think I’m also rather suspicious of Connie right now, the Elims haven’t even tried to kill her since her Hem claim. Sure, they might assume that an Elantrian will be protecting her, but they didn’t even try once.

20 hours ago, Danex said:

true, but it’s been like 3 nights now, and you haven’t even been targeted. Not a single time. The Elims primary goal is to kill all the Village Hems, then they can basically get an instant win. They haven’t even tried to kill you, whether it be through night kills or forcing a lynch in the day. Not even tried.

And yeah, I'm still suspicious of Connie. She might be Elim Hema. But we can still also leave her for later. There are still quite a few other Elims to get.

7 hours ago, Danex said:

Edit: I found this list of Ash’s reads from earlier, have we analyzed this since we found out they were Elim? Could be insightful. 

Good idea to analyze this. But for the most part, his reads pretty much follow the general consensus.

Okay, so for a vote? I'm thinking either Silber or Vapor. I did see that Araris already voted for Vapor. I could see how the Elims perhaps pushed them to get back to posting so they didn't get replaced out.

Vapor

[|TJ| he/him]

8 hours ago, Danex said:

Edit: I found this list of Ash’s reads from earlier, have we analyzed this since we found out they were Elim? Could be insightful. 

That's the post I referred to when I voted for Mist. Everything seems to be general consensus other than the village read on Mist. That's what is actually nagging me. 

[Condensation she/her]

I guess I could jump on the Vapor train. She has been telling me at every chance she gets that she thinks I'm an elim and that I'm really suspicious, but I don't think she's ever done it when it was just us. Mist is always around when she says it.

Oh wait, there was that one time when Mist was probably out of earshot(through a door) and she said it. Agh I don't know!

Anyway... I won't be on again before rollover: School. I don't think I'll vote, I'm just second-guessing myself and it'll get worse if I vote. I do think Vapor's consistency is really suspicious(she's been doing it since about the third day, before I claimed. Weird that she continued even after I claimed) so there's my thoughts on that, but I could also totally see her being a villager who just doesn't trust me.

Edited November 11, 2020 by Condensation

[Vapor she/her]

Possible self-pres vote rn, cant post again before school ends. Condensation. If I die and it's not me, vote her.