Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Wind he/him]

3 minutes ago, Experience said:

Umm... do you want us to?  

No... Yes? Who is the most suspicious person? 

[dannnex male]

7 minutes ago, Wind said:

No... Yes? Who is the most suspicious person? 

I think it’s TJ, but don’t just jump on the bandwagon, make your own judgement. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, I still haven't had time to go back and read stuff, but there is basically no scenario in which TJ is an elim. I am very suspicious of Experience for popping up and voting for the person I am most confident in the alignment of, especially after threatening to vote for an inactive player.

[Coffeecat she/her]

I wont be having internet for a while

 

i should be here for next cycle though

[Experience he/him]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, I still haven't had time to go back and read stuff, but there is basically no scenario in which TJ is an elim. I am very suspicious of Experience for popping up and voting for the person I am most confident in the alignment of, especially after threatening to vote for an inactive player.

When did I threaten to vote for an inactive player? I totally might have, I just didn't realize it if I did. I just don't remember doing so...

Also, what makes you so confident about TJ being village? Could you point me to a post if you've already said so? I still need to read the last night thread, but life is busy.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I was unclear. I threatened to vote for an inactive player, which I think prompted you to show up when you might not have otherwise.

I have  several reasons for thinking TJ is village. The first is that he is a Feruchemist (I don’t think this is disputable, since the real Feruchemist would claim if he wasn’t). This means he saved Turtle from the lynch, which there would be very little reason for an elim to do (elims want Hemalurgists dead, and the Condensation lynch attempt proves that a Turtle lynch wasn’t guaranteed the next day). I also think that an elim Feruchemist would unbalance the game, since it would make lynching the HI rather trivial for the elims, in the event of all village Hemalurgists dying. The second is that I am pretty suspicious of Books, and Books and TJ are almost certainly not both elims, since TJ caused Books to be the counter-wagon to the Ash lynch. I would also agree with Whysper that the Aman kill doesn’t fit the profile of an elim team with TJ on it.

Probably the only thing I have against TJ is that he was on the wrong side of the Ash lynch, but if Books is elim then that doesn’t matter

3 hours ago, Wind said:

I’m back, why does no one think I’m suspicious?

Because new players on the village team often go inactive, more so than new elims (the doc helps keep new players engaged with the game). Or at least that was my read a couple of cycles back. Now, I’m much less sure, since I think most/all of the players who were active in recent cycles are village. There certainly aren’t enough highly active players for them to all be elims.

[Experience he/him]

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I was unclear. I threatened to vote for an inactive player, which I think prompted you to show up when you might not have otherwise.

I have  several reasons for thinking TJ is village. The first is that he is a Feruchemist (I don’t think this is disputable, since the real Feruchemist would claim if he wasn’t). This means he saved Turtle from the lynch, which there would be very little reason for an elim to do (elims want Hemalurgists dead, and the Condensation lynch attempt proves that a Turtle lynch wasn’t guaranteed the next day). I also think that an elim Feruchemist would unbalance the game, since it would make lynching the HI rather trivial for the elims, in the event of all village Hemalurgists dying. The second is that I am pretty suspicious of Books, and Books and TJ are almost certainly not both elims, since TJ caused Books to be the counter-wagon to the Ash lynch. I would also agree with Whysper that the Aman kill doesn’t fit the profile of an elim team with TJ on it.

Probably the only thing I have against TJ is that he was on the wrong side of the Ash lynch, but if Books is elim then that doesn’t matter

Because new players on the village team often go inactive, more so than new elims (the doc helps keep new players engaged with the game). Or at least that was my read a couple of cycles back. Now, I’m much less sure, since I think most/all of the players who were active in recent cycles are village. There certainly aren’t enough highly active players for them to all be elims.

Ok, now I'm having bad feelings about you. I feel like either your an elim with shade, or your just trying to pocket them. But you could also be village. I just can't ever get a read on you. You know what, I'm going with my gut. Shade. Araris.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

There's a reason for my signature . It seems to be a "talent" I have (although I wish people would just read me as village and move on ). 

Also, the current count is likely 8/4/1 (village/elim/HI). TJ's vote counts triple effectively, so if he's elim, the votes stand at 8/6/1, and there is no way that all the villagers are voting on the same person (or even all voting, period, since the activity this game has been so awful). So if TJ is elim, I think we just lose already.

[dannnex male]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, the current count is likely 8/4/1 (village/elim/HI). TJ's vote counts triple effectively, so if he's elim, the votes stand at 8/6/1, and there is no way that all the villagers are voting on the same person (or even all voting, period, since the activity this game has been so awful). So if TJ is elim, I think we just lose already.

I think some of the Elims won’t be active either, so a TJ lynch isn’t impossible. Also, TJ’s 3 vote sway only really matters if there are 2 candidates with equal or almost equal votes. So yes, he’ll be able to move one vote off of him, but if everyone else is at least 2-3 votes behind, it might not even matter.

Kinda seems like something a fellow Elim would say to discourage villagers, hmm? 

(This fact kinda makes me suspicious of Exp honestly. Switching off of TJ like that, when the village knows that we need to be unified for basically anything to happen this cycle. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a TJ, Araris, Exp Elim team right now.)

[Mist she/her]

With the fact that there is an inactivity filter, which tends to hurt village more than elims, there were probably 5 elims and the HI at the start, so next cycle is most likely LyLo, but this cycle also could be.

Danex, I'm assuming you were convinced by TJ's argument, since TJ clearly didn't die.

But you weren't, as you said, and are still voting on them. I'm wondering if you're actually Mistborn.

1. Experience - village lean, but I'm confused about their most recent vote.

6. Condensation shouldn't be getting on, even though she is *cough cough*. I'm reading her village. She should be on less often.

8. @Elkanah 

10. Araris I'm reading fairly village. He's been pushing for activity and analyzing. 

11. Silber - null. In endgame that's dangerous. 

12. Danex - At first I believed your claim, but you're being rather inconsistent.

13. Whysper - strong village read. I appreciate her activity and analysis. 

16. Vapor can't currently get on, or at least isn't allowed to. She'd need to convince our parents to let her on.

17. Supreme - null. I'd love some more reasoning for your votes. 

18. Books - I'd love to see some reads from them. Null. I'll work on an ISO.

20. TJ - village read. I understand and agree with his explanation earlier. 

23. Wind - null read

You know what, 

"Sir! Oh, wait. I forgot that the captain was awakened, and I certainly don't want to panic any others, what with all of the announcements of emergency meetings we've had. It'll probably be far better if we look around for Viola ourselves, Wind." Tria heads down the stairs again. 

A few days later, far more nervous, Tria visits the bridge again. She remembers the immediate panic there was when that traitor Faleast had burst the atmosphere of the ship. Everyone had been sucked towards the opening, and they had lost a few crew members. Despite that, they had found no more imposters. Faleast had said some things. He said that the Hemalurgic Intelligence had helped him with something and that it was more free. That certainly has me pacing the ship rather freely.

[dannnex male]

7 minutes ago, Mist said:

With the fact that there is an inactivity filter, which tends to hurt village more than elims, there were probably 5 elims and the HI at the start, so next cycle is most likely LyLo, but this cycle also could be.

Danex, I'm assuming you were convinced by TJ's argument, since TJ clearly didn't die.

But you weren't, as you said, and are still voting on them. I'm wondering if you're actually Mistborn.

1. Experience - village lean, but I'm confused about their most recent vote.

6. Condensation shouldn't be getting on, even though she is *cough cough*. I'm reading her village. She should be on less often.

8. @Elkanah 

10. Araris I'm reading fairly village. He's been pushing for activity and analyzing. 

11. Silber - null. In endgame that's dangerous. 

12. Danex - At first I believed your claim, but you're being rather inconsistent.

13. Whysper - strong village read. I appreciate her activity and analysis. 

16. Vapor can't currently get on, or at least isn't allowed to. She'd need to convince our parents to let her on.

17. Supreme - null. I'd love some more reasoning for your votes. 

18. Books - I'd love to see some reads from them. Null. I'll work on an ISO.

20. TJ - village read. I understand and agree with his explanation earlier. 

23. Wind - null read

You know what, 

"Sir! Oh, wait. I forgot that the captain was awakened, and I certainly don't want to panic any others, what with all of the announcements of emergency meetings we've had. It'll probably be far better if we look around for Viola ourselves, Wind." Tria heads down the stairs again. 

A few days later, far more nervous, Tria visits the bridge again. She remembers the immediate panic there was when that traitor Faleast had burst the atmosphere of the ship. Everyone had been sucked towards the opening, and they had lost a few crew members. Despite that, they had found no more imposters. Faleast had said some things. He said that the Hemalurgic Intelligence had helped him with something and that it was more free. That certainly has me pacing the ship rather freely.

Wow, literally everyone I think is Elim, you think is village! That’s totally not suspicious at al!

*adds mist to possible Elim team.*

Do you have any Elim reads? Like, at all? Your entire list is either Village or Null. Excluding me I guess, but I’ve already given my reasons for not killing TJ last night.

[Mist she/her]

I think there's not enough content from most people to have an elim read on them. I'm willing to vote on all of my null reads.

[dannnex male]

12 minutes ago, Mist said:

I think there's not enough content from most people to have an elim read on them. I'm willing to vote on all of my null reads.

I mean...according to Araris, about 1/3 of us are Elim. 1/3. 33%. That’s a lot. And we’re this late in the game, and you have absolutely no Elim reads? Not even a gut read? That is...very suspicious. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Danex said:

I mean...according to Araris, about 1/3 of us are Elim. 1/3. 33%. That’s a lot. And we’re this late in the game, and you have absolutely no Elim reads? Not even a gut read? That is...very suspicious. 

I agree. You should have more than 0 elim reads by this point.

[|TJ| he/him]

12 hours ago, Danex said:

Ok well, I think I’m going to go with my gut and vote for TJ Shade again. Their point about them being a Feruchemist makes a lot of sense, but it’s nothing that a clever Elim couldn’t pull off. 

I want to invite you to explain a scenario of the Ashbringer lynch with me as an elim. I actually want you to answer this question, do not ignore it by telling you've got nothing to say because you're imply that 

• elim!me would start a wagon against Ashbringer knowing fully well there's a high probability that Ash might get lynched..
• which would only bring attention and major suspicion towards me...
• which made to claim my role...
• instead of just using vote manipulation which could have saved Ashbringer, kept me out of spotlight and suspicion, and if Books was an elim, it would only make my vote look good... 
• and you're actually calling it clever elim play? 

Please, I actually want you explain a scenario where elim!me makes sense. 

11 hours ago, Danex said:

Also, if I vote for someone, they get lynched, and then they were village, It’s only partly my fault. If I kill someone and they’re village, that’s definitely my fault, and is definitely going to make me look suspicious. I want to be as certain as possible before killing, and one way of getting more information is by voting. 

I guarantee you, you'll be solely at fault if I get lynched because I will flip village and you would've just deprived the village of a vote manipulator, and you've been the sole person (TWS too, but I'll get to them later) pushing for my lynch while frankly being unreasonable. You say one way of getting information is voting but you're literally doing the same thing as the last cycle. How does repeating things give more information? And you definitely seem more worried about the 'way you look'  than killing elims, which is not a good look for a villager.

7 hours ago, Experience said:

I'm really sorry everyone, I won't be able to post on here very often, because life. I'm putting my vote on Shade. The vote getting moved off of them last day just makes them even more suspicious. 

 The vote was moved off because I moved it. I'm the Feruchemist. Read the night cycle posts if you've missed them. 

8 hours ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Im going to vote for TJ Shade

It's the second time you're following Danex' vote without much reasoning other than "I agree with the above post". I'd like you to give your own reasoning, and also explain a scenario in which I'm an elim like I asked Danex earlier in the post. 

3 hours ago, Experience said:

Ok, now I'm having bad feelings about you. I feel like either your an elim with shade, or your just trying to pocket them. But you could also be village. I just can't ever get a read on you. You know what, I'm going with my gut. Shade. Araris.

I wasn't sure about Araris till this cycle. But there's no way a team with Araris would have spared me last night after I told I'm the Feruchemist, having stated the power of shifting votes without the self-vote being cancelled. In case elim!Araris decided not to kill me, it would only be to push a mislynch on me this cycle and he hasn't done it.  

Now to talk about the lack of Mistborn kill. Danex, there's just so many things against you here, man:

• You knew you were getting suspicions from people and you had to prove that you were the Mistborn
• You weren't killed in the night despite the claim
• You had soooo many elim reads and you couldn't even land on one?
• It was the 5th night, weren't you scared you'd waste a kill if you were killed?
• It's the 5th night, and you still couldn't choose a target to kill?
• It's the second time you're giving the reason that you missed the rollover.

You seem to care sooo much about how you 'look' during the game, that I find it hard to believe you wouldn't have proved that you were a Mistborn when you had the chance.

[dannnex male]

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

I want to invite you to explain a scenario of the Ashbringer lynch with me as an elim. I actually want you to answer this question, do not ignore it by telling you've got nothing to say because you're imply that 

Alright.

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

elim!me would start a wagon against Ashbringer knowing fully well there's a high probability that Ash might get lynched..

Yeah? Why wouldn’t you? It’s a relatively safe maneuver all things considered. You could always just claim that you thought Ash was village or that you were sure Books was Elim, no matter which way the vote went. And if there’s a chance to save another Elim, why wouldn’t you take it?

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

which would only bring attention and major suspicion towards me...

This is a really easy thing to say in hindsight, isn’t it. Maybe you should’ve thought of that before you started the bandwagon? If you’re village, you should’ve thought about how everyone would look at you if Ash was lynched and was Elim. 

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

which made to claim my role...

Don’t understand what you mean here. 

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

instead of just using vote manipulation which could have saved Ashbringer, kept me out of spotlight and suspicion, and if Books was an elim, it would only make my vote look good... 

Yeah, good point, why didn’t you use Vote Manipulation? You obviously thought that Books was Elim, even ignoring Ash completely, wouldn’t you have moved a vote to Books just so you could have your target lynched? Almost seems like you did think about this one beforehand, and decided that if Ash was somehow lynched anyway it’d put too much suspicion on you. 

Another point here, when you suddenly had the spotlight thrown on you, you dropped all your claims and votes, and have been 100% focused on defending yourself. Weren’t you suspicious of Books? Did that just disappear??

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

you definitely seem more worried about the 'way you look'  than killing elims, which is not a good look for a villager.

No, not really. I want to seem village obv, but who doesn’t?? Can’t catch any Elims if I’m storming dead. Again, you’re the one who has stopped posting reads altogether with the sole goal of defending yourself. Who’s “more worried about the ‘way [they] look’” again? 

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

You weren't killed in the night despite the claim

Elims are targeting suspected Village Hems, if I claimed MB they would almost certainly not vote me. A single mistborn cant do much against them, on the off chance I kill an Elim, they’re only one man down, not worth using a night kill on. They are focused on finding the Hems. 

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

• It was the 5th night, weren't you scared you'd waste a kill if you were killed?
• It's the 5th night, and you still couldn't choose a target to kill?
• It's the second time you're giving the reason that you missed the rollover.

Because I....missed rollover twice? Is that really so hard to believe? Did I even do that? I’ve only been public that I’m a mistborn for a single night. What was the other one?

Edited November 8, 2020 by Danex
Typo

[Flyingbooks]

47 minutes ago, Danex said:

AYeah, good point, why didn’t you use Vote Manipulation? You obviously thought that Books was Elim, even ignoring Ash completely, wouldn’t you have moved a vote to Books just so you could have your target lynched? Almost seems like you did think about this one beforehand, and decided that if Ash was somehow lynched anyway it’d put too much suspicion on you. 

Another point here, when you suddenly had the spotlight thrown on you, you dropped all your claims and votes, and have been 100% focused on defending yourself. Weren’t you suspicious of Books? Did that just disappear??

I'd like to point out that it didn't seem like TJ was certain that I was an elim. His vote seemed more like it was meant to force me to answer some questions about suspicions he had about me, which I did. He didn't reply to the thread after I replied, so he might simply not have had a chance to remove his vote. Now, this doesn't mean that TJ is definitely village, but it does decrease the number of reasons that you have to suspect him. Also, he's claimed Feruchemist (with vote changes that seem to reflect that) and somebody (I forget who at the moment and I can't find the post, I'll edit this post to say who if I find it) said that it was unlikely that there was an elim feruchemist because it would be too unbalanced, so I'm pretty certain that he's village.

[|TJ| he/him]

Right. At this point, you're just narrating this to fit your agenda and ignoring all the points that gives proof that I'm village. 

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Yeah? Why wouldn’t you? It’s a relatively safe maneuver all things considered. You could always just claim that you thought Ash was village or that you were sure Books was Elim, no matter which way the vote went. And if there’s a chance to save another Elim, why wouldn’t you take it?

How is it a safe maneuver when there were 3 votes on Ash and a lot of suspicion on him prior to that? And no, at that point, Ash was already taking a lot of suspicion, it doesn't make sense for another elim to expose themselves 'trying to save' him. 

1 hour ago, Danex said:

This is a really easy thing to say in hindsight, isn’t it. Maybe you should’ve thought of that before you started the bandwagon? If you’re village, you should’ve thought about how everyone would look at you if Ash was lynched and was Elim. 

Again, I didn't start the bandwagon. I voted for a person who I found suspicious and posed someone questions to others I found suspicious. Not everyone plays like you, Danex. In fact, I've never seen anyone here playing with the intention of looking good when they're village. I'd rather catch an elim following my suspicion than making attempts to look good to the public. 

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Yeah, good point, why didn’t you use Vote Manipulation? You obviously thought that Books was Elim, even ignoring Ash completely, wouldn’t you have moved a vote to Books just so you could have your target lynched? Almost seems like you did think about this one beforehand, and decided that if Ash was somehow lynched anyway it’d put too much suspicion on you. 

Wow, the anomalies in this post. I'm actually doubting if you've even followed the thread properly. First, a contradiction:

1 hour ago, Danex said:

And if there’s a chance to save another Elim, why wouldn’t you take it?

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Yeah, good point, why didn’t you use Vote Manipulation?

First, you're telling I took the chance to save Ash by voting on Books, now you're telling I'm suspicious for not trying to save him?? Like, what? You're finding me suspicious for NOT doing what an elim would do? Me not using vote manipulation is an elim indicative now? 

1 hour ago, Danex said:

You obviously thought that Books was Elim,

No, I did not. They were the most suspicious so I voted for them till I got answers from the people I had asked.   

2 hours ago, Danex said:

even ignoring Ash completely

No, I did not. I was reading him as village as I did state it in the post, and others finding him suspicious made me look at things closer as well, and asked him a question as well. 

I did not have a chance to reply to Books' reply or to Ash's reply because I was asleep as I had already stated in yet another post.

2 hours ago, Danex said:

wouldn’t you have moved a vote to Books just so you could have your target lynched?

No, unless I'm fairly certain of the player I voted on is an elim, which I wasn't because I hadn't gotten the replies I wanted before I fell asleep. 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Almost seems like you did think about this one beforehand, and decided that if Ash was somehow lynched anyway it’d put too much suspicion on you. 

Hold on, let me make sure I'm getting this correctly. You're telling that I didn't use vote manipulation yet kept my vote on Ash because I wanted suspicion on me so that I could tell later that I didn't use manipulation to get out of suspicion??? Rather than just manipulating the vote, saving Ash and not at all getting suspicion on me or in the first place? 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Another point here, when you suddenly had the spotlight thrown on you, you dropped all your claims and votes, and have been 100% focused on defending yourself. Weren’t you suspicious of Books? Did that just disappear??

Probably another post you missed:

Quote

Don't think it was an e/e train. I went to sleep before I saw Books' reply to my suspicion, and I really don't think it was a bussing attempt. There were many other players with similar bandwagon-y votes so Ash could easily have voted on them rather than bus Books. I'm giving mild village to Books.

I still think the same though the recent post makes me slightly worried that they're trying to pocket me. 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

No, not really. I want to seem village obv, but who doesn’t?? Can’t catch any Elims if I’m storming dead. Again, you’re the one who has stopped posting reads altogether with the sole goal of defending yourself. Who’s “more worried about the ‘way [they] look’” again? 

Now I shouldn't defend myself? You are my biggest suspicion, I'm conversing with you to find out if I'm wrong or right. I genuinely wanted you voted out last cycle because I believed you to be elim. Ironically, you also have not posted any reads after I voted for you. I'm not sure how that is even an alignment indicative. 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Elims are targeting suspected Village Hems, if I claimed MB they would almost certainly not vote me. A single mistborn cant do much against them, on the off chance I kill an Elim, they’re only one man down, not worth using a night kill on. They are focused on finding the Hems. 

Doesn't seem like it from the Aman kill. And pretty sure most us were convinced Illwei wasn't a Hemalurgist too. 

2 hours ago, Danex said:

Because I....missed rollover twice? Is that really so hard to believe? Did I even do that? I’ve only been public that I’m a mistborn for a single night. What was the other one?

Yes, you had 24 hours to put in a request, so I do find it hard to believe that you would miss the deadline. Especially after coming out very strongly against me in the succeeding Day cycle. 

Quote

Quote

On 11/5/2020 at 10:21 AM, TJ Shade said:

Why didn't you kill me last night? The way you're talking, you're 100% convinced that I'm an elim, and you're not even open to considering the possibility that I'm a villager. So if you're so sure about it, why didn't you kill me last night?

I have grown much more sure from what you’ve said this round. Believe me, if I survive, and if nothing has happened to change my mind, I will. Also I missed turnover and the last bit of last night.

 

It's really difficult to see you as a villager because I'd imagine a villager would be at least a little open-minded. You're not even hesitating to lynch a village Feruchemist. You're having an idea of my alignment in your mind and you're narrating suspicion to fit that agenda, while ignoring everything else that says otherwise. It's really hard to see a tunneling villager over a mislynching elim. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the fact that you love to look good. But if you're an elim forcing a mislynch on me, then you'd know I'll flip village, which makes you look BAD. So I'm not really sure. I'd like to hear what the other players think of Danex. I'm getting terrible LG67 déjà vu from this game. 

Agree about suspicious nature about the last post from Mist. I've been leaning elim about her all game, but definitely less than TWS and Danex. Not sure why a villager would not read last cycle's posts before making a vote this cycle. @Experience, any explanations? 

Village on Connie, Whysper, Araris. Supreme. Talk. 

[Wind he/him]

Danex is seeming very suspicious to me at this point but I haven’t been extremely active so I’m probably missing something.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So I’d be willing to lynch Danex this cycle. I have the same feeling as TJ; some of the stuff Danex has been saying feels like misguided villager. However, I don’t believe the Mistborn claim, and it’s possible that the elims think they can pull off a win by lynching TJ this cycle. Danex also fits the profile of a team that might have killed Aman, and would have left TJ alive to try and lynch him this cycle.

I would also like to note that Supreme was able to convince Illwei that he was village, which has caused me to back off on my suspicion of him. However, the vote on TJ really doesn’t look good, especially since you didn’t provide any reasoning. So I agree with TJ that I’d like to hear from Supreme more.

I’d also like to hear from @Whysper, who has posted but not yet voted this turn.

[+Whysper she/her]

On 11/8/2020 at 0:05 AM, Danex said:

Ok well, I think I’m going to go with my gut and vote for TJ Shade again. Their point about them being a Feruchemist makes a lot of sense, but it’s nothing that a clever Elim couldn’t pull off. 

At this point I feel you are just tunneling TJ. You are seeing everything he's done as something a clever Elim can do. And yeah, technically anything fits in that category if you tinfoil it enough. Now I'm not saying it isn't possible that TJ is Elim. He very well could be an Elim making clever moves. But a lot of this game is about odds. You have to look at all the various actions someone has done and consider the chances that they do all that as Elim. For example, TJ as Feruchemist didn't save Ash when he very well could have manipulated a vote from Ash to Books. He voted on the Lotus wagon even though there were already enough votes for a lynch. An Elim would already know she'd flip VIllager and would actually avoid getting on a Villager wagon. No, these and other pieces of evidence are enough to convince me TJ is very likely a Villager.

19 hours ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Im going to vote for TJ Shade

18 hours ago, Experience said:

I'm putting my vote on Shade. The vote getting moved off of them last day just makes them even more suspicious. 

And these piling on of votes by people I already find suspicious just add to my suspicion.

14 hours ago, Experience said:

Ok, now I'm having bad feelings about you. I feel like either your an elim with shade, or your just trying to pocket them. But you could also be village. I just can't ever get a read on you. You know what, I'm going with my gut. Shade. Araris.

Araris gave a reasonable view of why he thinks TJ is a Villager. And all you have to say is you have bad feelings about him. And then hedge on this. Yet finally switching a vote from TJ to Araris so easily based on gut? Oh man, I think you've gone to top Elim read for me now.

Experience

12 hours ago, Danex said:

(This fact kinda makes me suspicious of Exp honestly. Switching off of TJ like that, when the village knows that we need to be unified for basically anything to happen this cycle. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a TJ, Araris, Exp Elim team right now.)

I like that you said this because it makes me feel a little better about you. I know you are new, so I've been trying to see your excessive paranoia from that viewpoint. But the conclusion you came to doesn't make sense. It would never be all 3 of them playing Elim theater just to split the vote.

12 hours ago, Mist said:

so next cycle is most likely LyLo, but this cycle also could be.

I was actually wondering if we are normally notified of LyLo in games on this site. At FoL we usually are.

12 hours ago, Mist said:

13. Whysper - strong village read. I appreciate her activity and analysis. 

When I read this, I started to feel bad for my recent drop in activity. Sorry, I should have kept more involved and helped more. Just busier recently, plus a bit of loss in spirit for this game due to so many Villager flips. But at least we did get one Elim already.  And I think we still have a chance.

As for your reads, looks mostly good. I think we do need to focus on all those nulls, which mostly correspond with ones I find null, too. I seriously think a few of the Elims fall in there, like Silber, Supreme, Books, and Wind.

11 hours ago, Danex said:

I mean...according to Araris, about 1/3 of us are Elim. 1/3. 33%. That’s a lot. And we’re this late in the game, and you have absolutely no Elim reads? Not even a gut read? That is...very suspicious. 

11 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I agree. You should have more than 0 elim reads by this point.

The problem is that we do still have a few not saying much. Mist placed them as null, but in a way, this far in the game, they should all be defaulted to Elim leans at least.

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

At this point, you're just narrating this to fit your agenda and ignoring all the points that gives proof that I'm village. 

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

It's really difficult to see you as a villager because I'd imagine a villager would be at least a little open-minded. You're not even hesitating to lynch a village Feruchemist. You're having an idea of my alignment in your mind and you're narrating suspicion to fit that agenda, while ignoring everything else that says otherwise. It's really hard to see a tunneling villager over a mislynching elim.

Yes, exactly. I think Danex is tunneling you at this point. I'm seriously debating whether to vote him as a policy lynch. His tunneling is getting sheeped by others who I think might be Elims. While I give Danex a slight Villager lean, it's not very strong. Also, I'm worried that he is indeed a Mistborn and might try to kill you.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

So I’d be willing to lynch Danex this cycle. I have the same feeling as TJ; some of the stuff Danex has been saying feels like misguided villager. However, I don’t believe the Mistborn claim, and it’s possible that the elims think they can pull off a win by lynching TJ this cycle. Danex also fits the profile of a team that might have killed Aman, and would have left TJ alive to try and lynch him this cycle

I lean towards believing his Mistborn claim. I can't see why he'd make a fake claim for this. And yes, Danex does fit that team profile you described.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm going to be offline for the rest of the cycle, but I'm happy with where my vote is now. Just don't count on me if anything suddenly comes up.

[Flyingbooks]

@Straw Could I please have a vote count?

[|TJ| he/him]

Araris' post actually made me recheck the rules of them game, and I just realised the elims just have to achieve parity, and not outnumber us for them to win. So if it's 7-5-1, and they are able to get a mislynch, we lose at the end of the Night Turn. 

Since Supreme has not at all come on, Experience.

[dannnex male]

You think there’s 7 Elims total? That’s rather high. I’d guess 5-6. (With one being HI and one being ash)

Edited November 8, 2020 by Danex