Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Mist she/her]

1 hour ago, Danex said:

Anything to say Mist? I see you browsing the topic. 

Apparently Mistborn are good at poisoning stuff. How could you? I have been being suspicious. 

I would like to hear if an Awakener roleblocked someone. 

How I survived: 

[Straw he/him]

Note: @Burnt Spaghetti has replaced Elkanah, effective immediately. Please welcome her to the game! 

[Mist she/her]

Hey Burnt! Welcome! 

[Flyingbooks]

I think that it's likely that an Awakener roleblocked Danex, since Danex thinks that TJ is suspicious while many other people don't. The Awakener might have been trying to save TJ because he's likely a village feruchemist, which will be an even more important role now that the elims make up a significant percentage of living players.

[dannnex male]

30 minutes ago, Mist said:

How I survived: 

Hmmmm. If I was an Elim or HI in Mist’s position, I would’ve claimed Voidbringer. Wonder why she didn’t....

[dannnex male]

9 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I think that it's likely that an Awakener roleblocked Danex, since Danex thinks that TJ is suspicious while many other people don't. The Awakener might have been trying to save TJ because he's likely a village feruchemist, which will be an even more important role now that the elims make up a significant percentage of living players.

I am suspicious of TJ, but too many people said that they think he’s village, so I went with a Mist target instead. I could conclude that all of those people are Elims too, but even I can see that that would be a little much.

I don’t necessarily have a ton of evidence to prove that I targeted Mist, but I did voice my suspicions for her earlier. 

Also, if I was Roleblocked, wouldn’t you think it would’ve been by an Elim? I asked to talk with any village awakeners but didn’t get any reply. 

Also also, if you think I was roleblocked, why do you think the Elims targeted Mist?

Edited November 10, 2020 by Danex
Oops, double posted. Haven’t made that mistake in a while...

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Heya people's! Happy to be here!

Currently attempting to catch up on everything. Tldrs appreciated

[The Windrunner Supreme he/him]

Village on Connie, Whysper, Araris. Supreme. Talk. 

 

Sorry about this. I have finals next week

Spoiler

Im thinking mist is sounding kind of suspicious. Why not claim? I think Mist is probably HI

Edited November 10, 2020 by The Windrunner Supreme

[Araris Valerian he/him]

50 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I think that it's likely that an Awakener roleblocked Danex, since Danex thinks that TJ is suspicious while many other people don't. The Awakener might have been trying to save TJ because he's likely a village feruchemist, which will be an even more important role now that the elims make up a significant percentage of living players.

If there is a village Awakener, this only works if the elims also targeted Mist. 

 

1 minute ago, The Windrunner Supreme said:

Village on Connie, Whysper, Araris. Supreme. Talk. 

 

Sorry about this. I have finals next week

  Hide contents

Im thinking mist is sounding kind of suspicious. Why not claim? I think Mist is probably HI

Do you realize you just voted for yourself? And yeah. Village!Mist would almost certainly claim Voidbringer, so Mist is likely the HI.

[Mist she/her]

I won't lie explicitly with my words, so if I were village and not a Voidbringer, I wouldn't claim. 

[|TJ| he/him]

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess I’d lean toward the latter, since the elim team behavior so far seems to have been kind of sub-optimal, and they could all be inactive at this point.

Okay suspicion bells ringing. Why would you think they could all be inactive when they've sent a kill just the last cycle? And there's no indication and anyone specifically went inactive from last night cycle to this? I find it more plausible that Danex would use the elim kill to pretend as the Mistborn kill and feign innocence about the lack of elim kill. Elims could have also not used the elim kill to frame Danex, but I don't know why they'd lose out on a kill when they can always mislynch someone else.

@Straw, I'd imagine "attacked but survived" is written only if the target is protected by Elantrian, or is immune to kills (Voidbringer or HI). The message is NOT given if the attacker is roleblocked right?

4 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Tldrs appreciated

Okaaay, let's see. First cycle ended in Elkanah 4-4 Ventyl. RNG killed Ventyl, so it's just pure luck that you're here.  I'm a Feruchemist and I didn't believe in the reasons for the vote on Elkanah so I attempted to manipulate the vote to save him. Apparently, that was also the same idea Devotary had, as she was also a Feruchemist and attempted to move the same vote I was attempting to, so our actions cancelled each other, and Ventyl died to RNG. During Day 2, Aman made a very good case against Elandera, which many agreed, but she was village. Someone saved Illwei suggesting the presence of an active (at the time) village Elantrian since Illwei has flipped village. Turtle and Devotary were killed in the same round, to Aman's Mistborn kill and elim kill. Both were Hemalurgists. Ashbringer was lynched and found to be elim. I was on the opposite side of Ash lynch, so I generated a fair bit of suspicion. In the following cycle, I saved myself from a lynch by vote manipulation, at which point I was forced to claim my role. Think that's it so far. 

This is the point where paranoia grows exponentially and my brain stops thinking logically. I know there are good reasons that show contrary to the fact that Araris or Whysper might be elims, but just little things are making me paranoid that one of them is. 

Edited November 10, 2020 by TJ Shade
Corrected the mistake pointed out by Books.

[Vapor she/her]

I was gone for like 3 cycles, but...

Honestly this is just a quick post for inactivity filter stuff... I haven't read enough to get suspicious of anyone. Be back later.

[Flyingbooks]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Someone saved Illwei suggesting the presence of an active (at the time) village Elantrian since Illwei has flipped evil.

I assume you mean village, not evil?

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

I assume you mean village, not evil?

Yeah, I corrected it now.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Heya people's! Happy to be here!

Currently attempting to catch up on everything. Tldrs appreciated

Elims are probably inexperienced and/or inactive. They apparently didn’t send in a kill last cycle (this depends on Danex being village), killed Aman when he was inactive and also not really cleared, and failed to kill TJ despite him having a vote manipulation role that makes him extremely powerful.

This means you are kind of suspect, along with Vapor, Condensation, Silber, and Wind. I think everyone else was around during the night, although I need to check.

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Why would you think they could all be inactive when they've sent a kill just the last cycle? And there's no indication and anyone specifically went inactive from last night cycle to this?

It wouldn’t take a dramatic change in activity for an already inactive elim team to miss sending in the kill. You just need someone to say they have the kill covered and then to forget to send in the order because they didn’t actually go on the Shard all day. I also think that elim!Danex would have killed you. He had already set himself up to do it in the thread, and it would be more convincing that he had done it than an attack on Mist. Another thing, why would the elims attack Mist?

I admit that I was starting to think that Whysper might be the HI. She feels like she has been holding back a bit this game. But since it seems likely that Mist is the HI now, Whysper is probably just plain village.

[Condensation she/her]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This means you are kind of suspect, along with Vapor, Condensation, Silber, and Wind. I think everyone else was around during the night, although I need to check.

Hey! I got on during the night! I checked all of my RPs, all of my PMs, and all of my SE stuff. Now I have to check all of my notifications, but that's beside the point.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

It wouldn’t take a dramatic change in activity for an already inactive elim team to miss sending in the kill. You just need someone to say they have the kill covered and then to forget to send in the order because they didn’t actually go on the Shard all day. I also think that elim!Danex would have killed you. He had already set himself up to do it in the thread, and it would be more convincing that he had done it than an attack on Mist. Another thing, why would the elims attack Mist?

You're assuming Mist is HI and has managed to contact the elim at this point? If Danex is elim, it makes sense for him to attack one of his previously stated suspicion, and if HI!Mist has not yet found a way to contact them, they he wouldn't know Mist is HI. But yeah, there's a lot of 'ifs' in my guess. I suppose you're right. I think this is the first time I'm seeing an elim kill not being submitted since I began playing here, so I'm a bit skeptical about it.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Hey! I got on during the night! I checked all of my RPs, all of my PMs, and all of my SE stuff. Now I have to check all of my notifications, but that's beside the point.

My bad. Both you and Silber posted during the night turn. That leaves Vapor, Wind, and Burnt out of the players that have been least active.

[Condensation she/her]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

My bad. Both you and Silber posted during the night turn. That leaves Vapor, Wind, and Burnt out of the players that have been least active.

Okay, thanks.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

You're assuming Mist is HI and has managed to contact the elim at this point?

I’m assuming Mist is HI, and independent of that she is a poor night kill target. Someone like myself, you, Whysper, or Condensation (a Hemalurgist) would be far better than someone who isn’t voting at all. Of course, the elims clearly don’t prioritize their kills the same as me, but I think my point is somewhat valid regardless.

[Vapor she/her]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My bad. Both you and Silber posted during the night turn. That leaves Vapor, Wind, and Burnt out of the players that have been least active.

I was gone.

[Condensation she/her]

Vapor was gone. Mist being HI would make sense, and I have a question. How do you usually prioritise kills?

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m assuming Mist is HI, and independent of that she is a poor night kill target. Someone like myself, you, Whysper, or Condensation (a Hemalurgist) would be far better than someone who isn’t voting at all. Of course, the elims clearly don’t prioritize their kills the same as me, but I think my point is somewhat valid regardless.

Yeah, that seems fair. They did seem like they wanted to kill trusted villagers (or suspected Hems?) when they killed Illwei.

2 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I was gone.

Yes, that makes you a suspect.  

[Flyingbooks]

I made a list of all of the possible scenarios for the attack on Mist that I could think of and my thoughts & questions about them. 

Possible kill scenarios: 

1. Danex & Elims both target Mist	Why might the Elims target Mist? Could they have an important role that the elims know of somehow? Indicates that Danex is likely Village, since there would be no point in wasting a Mistborn kill like that..
2. Elims don’t send in a kill	Indicates a very inactive Elim team & that Danex is likely Village, since he was fairly active.
3. Danex lies about having sent in a kill, elims target Mist	What motivation might Danex have to lie about using his Mistborn kill? Unless somebody can think of a plausible situation in which Danex would lie about sending in a kill, I think that this option is very unlikely. Why might the Elims target Mist? Could the elims think that they have an important role for some reason?
4. An Awakener roleblocking doesn’t appear in the GM post & Danex or an elim was roleblocked, Elims/Danex target Mist	Why might the Elims target Mist? It's unlikely that an elim was roleblocked because then whoever roleblocked would have probably said so by now, so of the 2 options it seems more likely that Danex was roleblocked.

 

Possible Mist survival scenarios:

a. Mist was saved by Elantrian/ killer roleblocked by Awakener	Most likely out of these 4 because the other options seem more unlikely
b. Mist is the HI	Unlikely because not claiming as a Voidbringer would increase suspicion, which is not what the HI would want, but it could theoretically be a double-bluff? I think this is the 2nd most likely
c. Mist is a village Voidbringer	Unlikely because Mist said that she’d claim if she was a Voidbringer, but still possible. 3rd most likely.
d. Mist is an elim Voidbringer	Unlikely, since the role is nearly useless for an Elim. Least likely

Edited November 10, 2020 by Flyingbooks42

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Vapor said:

I was gone.

That’s my point. I think the best explanation of the events last night is that no elim kill was sent in. The best explanation of that is a bunch of elims that were gone, like you. For now, I’ll vote on Vapor. I’d like to fine Burnt at least one cycle to catch up before lynching her, and I haven’t picked up on anything to distinguish between Vapor and Wind at this point.

1 minute ago, Condensation said:

How do you usually prioritise kills?

That’s complicated. As an elim, you want to kill trusted villagers, kill power roles, and deny information. Actually deciding which of those three goals to prioritize would come down to what is happening in the thread. This game has the added complication of the Hemalurgists, but that’s the general idea. You could read some of the elim docs that I have been in to get a better idea of my thought process. Most recently were LG 67, MR 40, and LG 57. The MR was a loss for me, the other two were wins.