Stick. she/her Posted March 16 Posted March 16 It’s a 99 to 1 to me only because of what I’ve seen across these games, historically. I’ve certainly seen worse opspec and I’ve certainly seen people accidentally getting too comfortable in dead chats especially in a case like this where doc’s codeword would’ve been inconsequential to reveal since we have an outed burnt, can see it happening if ash was asked about what burnt had claimed with her codeword but ya, i think there’s a 1% chance of that and that’s 1% more than the confidence I have in my alignment being e, so there u go, hope it makes sense edit Gtg now but guess I’ll see it when I’m in it
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 16 Posted March 16 1 minute ago, Stick. said: It’s a 99 to 1 to me only because of what I’ve seen across these games, historically. I’ve certainly seen worse opspec and I’ve certainly seen people accidentally getting too comfortable in dead chats especially in a case like this where doc’s codeword would’ve been inconsequential to reveal since we have an outed burnt, can see it happening if ash was asked about what burnt had claimed with her codeword but ya, i think there’s a 1% chance of that and that’s 1% more than the confidence I have in my alignment being e, so there u go, hope it makes sense Oh, sorry, I'm not trying to say you should think you're e or anything. I'm saying you should be more confident that Drake is e than you seem. But if you really see plausibility in the idea that Ash randomly spilled the codeword he gave Wahr in a particular PM, and then that just happened to be the one piece of information Wahr asked for, then I guess I can see why you're hedging. Looking back over this conversation, I realize we've been talking at cross purposes. I haven't been trying to say you should move your vote, I've just been pushing back against the idea that Hael could still be lying, which I really see as unrealistic. Likewise, I've been reading your messages as trying to defend the idea that an opsec breach is more plausible than Hael/Burnt/Drake/Mist, when you've actually just been defending your vote, yes? Sorry, it seems like it's just been a miscommunication.
Divergent He/Him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 I was questioning whether it is possible that everything Hael said was true except for Drake's info, but seems like that can't be the case since the codewords that Ash provided were asked for after the scan was delivered? So that would mean, Ash did confirm said information and vouched for it by giving the codeword Haelbarde Stick
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 Approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes remain in the Day (6) Stick: Hael, TUM, Wonko, Araris, TJ, Divergent, (5) Hael: Stick, Doc, Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Archer,
Myst He/Him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 So… I still think we should Exe Hael. Because I’m still of the opinion that Coco is Elim, and one of Doc/Twin/Hael is Elim. Twin is already dead. Which means we may have won already. However, the absolute chaos of Doc/Hael/Stick means that one of Hael/Doc is Elim. I think that Doc is village, all his moves have checked out, his reasons make sense from a Village standpoint. That said, I still think we should Roleblock him tonight just in case. But that leaves Hael as Elim. Yall have gone on about whether Drake and Stick are Elim, and the fact is, it really doesn’t matter. We have a much better chance if we exe one of Hael/Doc. Since I trust Doc, and because most of the votes are on Hael, we should exe Hael. If we somehow decided to Exe Doc, we should Roleblock Hael tonight. I’m keeping my vote on Hael
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 18 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: So… I still think we should Exe Hael. Because I’m still of the opinion that Coco is Elim, and one of Doc/Twin/Hael is Elim. Twin is already dead. Which means we may have won already. However, the absolute chaos of Doc/Hael/Stick means that one of Hael/Doc is Elim. I think that Doc is village, all his moves have checked out, his reasons make sense from a Village standpoint. That said, I still think we should Roleblock him tonight just in case. But that leaves Hael as Elim. Yall have gone on about whether Drake and Stick are Elim, and the fact is, it really doesn’t matter. We have a much better chance if we exe one of Hael/Doc. Since I trust Doc, and because most of the votes are on Hael, we should exe Hael. If we somehow decided to Exe Doc, we should Roleblock Hael tonight. I’m keeping my vote on Hael Have you read this post? 3 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said: No wait this is true We shouldn't exe Doc/Hael, because one of Drake/Stick is e, and one of them is dead. Doc/Hael is a 50/50 of hitting one elim, exing Stick is a 100% chance of having one elim dead If we haven't exed an elim yet, there is no reason to kill Drake, as the elims would have the win locked. If we have exed one elim, we need one more to be dead. We have two pairs that each have an elim, but only one of those pairs already has a dead player @Wahrheitswächter @Araris Valerian @|TJ| @Wonko the Sane @Mistfallen Soldier @Divergent @Archer Feel free to correct me here, but the only world I see where this doesn't work is Hael/Drake, in which case the elims just decided to give us a chance where we had none We literally cannot lose the loop if we exe Stick, unless the elims deliberately threw a won game or they broke the dead doc. So "We have a much better chance if we exe one of Hael/Doc" is factually false, unless your certainty on Doc's village alignment exceeds the odds of those other two cases.
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 32 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: So… I still think we should Exe Hael. Because I’m still of the opinion that Coco is Elim, and one of Doc/Twin/Hael is Elim. Twin is already dead. Which means we may have won already. However, the absolute chaos of Doc/Hael/Stick means that one of Hael/Doc is Elim. I think that Doc is village, all his moves have checked out, his reasons make sense from a Village standpoint. That said, I still think we should Roleblock him tonight just in case. But that leaves Hael as Elim. Yall have gone on about whether Drake and Stick are Elim, and the fact is, it really doesn’t matter. We have a much better chance if we exe one of Hael/Doc. Since I trust Doc, and because most of the votes are on Hael, we should exe Hael. If we somehow decided to Exe Doc, we should Roleblock Hael tonight. I’m keeping my vote on Hael There are only two elim teams in which exeing Hael wins but exeing Stick loses: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc For literally every other possible team, exeing Stick is superior. For example, you say you're of the opinion Coco is elim. Fantastic! We know for a fact that one of Drake/Stick are ALSO elim. Drake is already dead. So if we kill Stick, then we are GUARANTEED to have two elims dead. This isn't just the most probable scenario, it's guaranteed. If Coco is elim, then killing Stick ALWAYS wins the round. We are not going on about whether Drake or Stick is elim. We are saying that no matter which of them is the elim -- and no matter which of Hael or Doc is the elim -- killing Stick is the optimal decision.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 30 minutes remain in the Day (6) Stick: Hael, TUM, Wonko, Araris, TJ, Divergent, (5) Hael: Stick, Doc, Wahrheit, Mistfallen, Archer,
Doc12 Posted March 17 Posted March 17 Uh... Is it just me or is anyone getting flashbacks to day 1 this loop? When there's a obvious elim between two people, and everyone's pivoting to a second train for mech reasons? Day 1 it was Burnt is probably evil but she can't afford Stone, we need to exe Coco to be safe. And now it's Hael could very well be evil but we really need to exe Stick to be safe? I know what I saw, and I'm not letting go of the one real piece of information I have.
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 1 minute ago, Doc12 said: Uh... Is it just me or is anyone getting flashbacks to day 1 this loop? When there's a obvious elim between two people, and everyone's pivoting to a second train for mech reasons? Day 1 it was Burnt is probably evil but she can't afford Stone, we need to exe Coco to be safe. And now it's Hael could very well be evil but we really need to exe Stick to be safe? I know what I saw, and I'm not letting go of the one real piece of information I have. The difference is, there is ALSO an obvious elim between Drake and Stick now. Exeing Stick only loses the Loop if that elim is Drake, AND no one else on the elim team is dead. So, only in these worlds: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist Given that you're in two of these, you should only be worried if you think the team is Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist. Do you think that?
Myst He/Him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 1 minute ago, Doc12 said: Uh... Is it just me or is anyone getting flashbacks to day 1 this loop? When there's a obvious elim between two people, and everyone's pivoting to a second train for mech reasons? Day 1 it was Burnt is probably evil but she can't afford Stone, we need to exe Coco to be safe. And now it's Hael could very well be evil but we really need to exe Stick to be safe? I know what I saw, and I'm not letting go of the one real piece of information I have. Yeah… and that turned out… well… badly. Yeah, E!Coco could have gone for stone instead, but it’s weird. I’m willing to trust you on this. This entire thing is weird. After looking at Araris and Wonko’s response, I personally have decided that it doesn’t matter. If we exe Stick we win If we exe Hael we win. Also, I think I get why Hael was acting the way he did, btw, we were going to exe him cause Ash said so until he brought up Stick. He knew that whether he spoke up or not. we were going to win the loop. and if he hadn’t the dead doc would’ve called him out on it, so he’s trying to build village cred for next loop
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 10 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Uh... Is it just me or is anyone getting flashbacks to day 1 this loop? When there's a obvious elim between two people, and everyone's pivoting to a second train for mech reasons? Day 1 it was Burnt is probably evil but she can't afford Stone, we need to exe Coco to be safe. And now it's Hael could very well be evil but we really need to exe Stick to be safe? I know what I saw, and I'm not letting go of the one real piece of information I have. Yeah, but none of the rest of us know what you saw, which is the real kicker here. 5 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: If we exe Hael we win. Exeing Hael could cause us to lose the loop if he's village.
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 This is literally every possible team, color-coded: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Coco Burnt/Hael/Drake/Twin Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc Burnt/Hael/Stick/Coco Burnt/Hael/Stick/Twin Burnt/Hael/Stick/Mist Burnt/Hael/Stick/Doc Burnt/Doc/Drake/Coco Burnt/Doc/Drake/Twin Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist Burnt/Doc/Stick/Coco Burnt/Doc/Stick/Twin Burnt/Doc/Stick/Mist Where the colors are: The Loop is already won The Loop is already lost The Loop can be won by killing Stick The Loop can be won by killing Hael Please, explain why you think exeing Hael is safer than exeing Stick. 4
Myst He/Him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said: Yeah, but none of the rest of us know what you saw, which is the real kicker here. Exeing Hael could cause us to lose the loop if he's village. Which he’s not. We’re going to have to deal with the situation eventually. And I believe Doc. It makes sense to me. I’m sorry, but you’re going to have to find someone else to convince 1 minute ago, Wonko the Sane said: This is literally every possible team, color-coded: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Coco Burnt/Hael/Drake/Twin Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc Burnt/Hael/Stick/Coco Burnt/Hael/Stick/Twin Burnt/Hael/Stick/Mist Burnt/Hael/Stick/Doc Burnt/Doc/Drake/Coco Burnt/Doc/Drake/Twin Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist Burnt/Doc/Stick/Coco Burnt/Doc/Stick/Twin Burnt/Doc/Stick/Mist Where the colors are: The Loop is already won The Loop is already lost The Loop can be won by killing Stick The Loop can be won by killing Hael Please, explain why you think exeing Hael is safer than exeing Stick. I trust Doc. Doc got Mask of Truth, and scanned Hael, who came up as Elim. Unless you can convince me not to trust Doc, I don’t see a reason to switch. From my perspective we win either way
Archer he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 Hael solved my puzzle, and Stick didn't, so the choice is obvious. Stick gets a 50-rupee consolation prize, and can keep Ashbringer company 1
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 1 minute ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Which he’s not. We’re going to have to deal with the situation eventually. And I believe Doc. It makes sense to me. I’m sorry, but you’re going to have to find someone else to convince I trust Doc. Doc got Mask of Truth, and scanned Hael, who came up as Elim. Unless you can convince me not to trust Doc, I don’t see a reason to switch. From my perspective we win either way You don't need to not trust Doc. I'm saying that killing Stick is optimal REGARDLESS of whether Doc or Hael is an elim.
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 Day 3-C is now over! Standby for the Night. 3
Amanuensis he/him Posted March 17 Author Posted March 17 (edited) LG110, Night 3-C: Engyorged Night 3-C will end on Saturday, March 17th @ 10:00 PM EST. Wayward Few Quote The Captain's Hat was not a comfortable thing to wear, the bone-pale brim pressing down over his brow, the empty eye sockets of its grinning face looking out at the world through his. He shouted into it with everything he had — not brave words, not a battle cry, just the ragged truth of a Goron who had used up every scrap of courage he'd brought to the sea and had nothing left but the desperate wish to be left alone. The ghost pirates went still. Not all at once — a ripple of it, moving through them from the ones closest to him outward, a hesitation that had the quality of instinct being overwritten by something older than instinct. They didn't retreat. But they stopped. And around him, rising from the water and the moonshadow and the spaces between the living, other shapes gathered. Drake first, half-formed, more suggested than solid, hovering at Link's left shoulder with the strange mask he'd worn in life his only discernable feature. Then Rashe, clearer than he had any right to be, eyes locked on Coliver and her friends. Thistle saw the third shape and made a sound she immediately cut off — not a scream, something smaller and more private. Amora stood at the edge of the turtle's shell, looking at the fires on the Zora Cape shore with the particular focus of someone who had been trying to get to a place and hadn't made it. Thistle couldn't take her eyes away if she wanted. Kieran and Wahi worked in tandem, drawing the pirates away from the group's center, collapsing the flanks. Two of the ghosts came apart — not killed, exactly, but dispersed, the substance of them scattering and not immediately reforming. The others were more careful after that. They tightened their circle without advancing, keeping the living pressed toward the middle of the shell, not finishing it. The Captain's Hat had not commanded them to stop entirely, only to hesitate, and they were finding the edges of that hesitation. Ap was on her knees. She had her hands on them and she was looking at the place where the Happy Mask Salesman had been standing when it happened. It had been very fast. She kept thinking it should have taken longer, that a moment that horrific should have had more warning to it — some kind of sound, or motion, or moment where she could have stepped in front of it the way others had stepped in front of things for her. There had been no such moment. One second he was there, and then there was a pirate captain with a blade, and then he wasn't. She couldn't make herself stand up. Behind the pirate captain — above the cold translucent figure with the cutlass dripping with her grandfather's blood — something rose, only recognizable by his particular smile. He rose until he was above the pirate who had killed him, high enough for Ap to see him clearly, and then he dove down into her back, vanishing within. The pirate captain shuddered. Her hand moved against her own will, bringing the blade in a wide arc across two of her companions, dispersing them. She turned on a third and then a fourth, the Happy Mask Salesman fighting from the inside of the thing that had ended him, buying time the way he'd always bought things — at whatever cost was available. Lili was crying. She had her arms around her own knees and her face turned away from the water and she was sobbing uncontrollably. They should have never brought her here. The pirate captain turned her head — or the Happy Mask Salesman turned it — and he looked at Ap through eyes that were not his, mouthing a single word. Go. Nodding and wiping the tears from her eyes, Ap pressed her hand to the ancient shell beneath her knees, feeling the immense patience of something that had been here since long before Clock Town had walls. "Please," she said. "The temple. Take us to the temple, they can't follow us there, please—" The turtle's voice, when it came, was like hearing the bay itself speak: low and dense and not in any hurry. Yes. Yes, little one. The great head turned. The shell began to move. Slowly, painfully slowly, but the ghost pirates were too distracted by the crew's other fallen companions. The entrance was three hundred yards ahead, a massive arch of stone just beneath the waterline, and something was already crashing through it. It came fast, the mask on its face catching the moonlight. On its back, small and dark and laughing, the Skull Kid rode with his arms out like wings. The turtle turned. Old as it was, vast as it was, it turned and it swam, the shell tilting under their feet as it pushed through its own wake in the opposite direction. People grabbed for each other or grasped for the shell as they stumbled. Gyorg, of course, was faster. "Jump!" someone yelled, and some did, hitting the water and swimming, while others refused. Regardless the giant piranha's jaw snapped open, the darkness of its maw enveloping them all, giant turtle included, whole. Ap woke up coughing. The... chamber, for lack of a better word... was large. The walls curved up and away in vaulted arches, blue-grey stone worked with channels that pulsed faintly with the water that moved through them in steady tidal rhythms, in, out, in, out, the whole interior breathing in the slow mechanical way of something very old. It was not a stomach. It was closer to a ruin that had been built inside a creature, or a creature that had been built around a ruin. The distinction didn't feel important at the moment. Algae covered the lower walls in patches, a dim blue-purple glow that lit nothing clearly and everything just enough. The floor was flooded, ankle-deep, then knee-deep near the far wall, the water cold and moving. Something in the current tugged steadily toward a drain that probably led somewhere worse. Ap sat up. Beside her, Lili was already upright, hands pressed to her own chest, understandably short of breath. Around them, everyone else was coming to — Thistle and Kieran and Wahi and the rest, checking themselves, checking each other, finding each other in the dim light. The turtle was here too, or part of it, its great shell taking up most of the chamber's far end, its head low, its ancient eyes open and blinking. "I'm sorry," it said, to no one and everyone. It did not say anything else before it closed its eyes and stopped moving. It had already lost too much blood. Then: a sound from the far end of the chamber, in the darkest part near the drain wall. "Lili?" The voice was searching, hoarse, the voice of someone who had been in this dark for long enough that hearing another person in it was almost more than they could process. Lili was on her feet before Ap registered that she'd moved. She crossed the flooded floor at a run, throwing up spray, and hit the tall Zora woman around the middle hard enough to nearly knock her over. Lulu caught her. Her arms went around the small body and she stood very still, not speaking, holding on with the intensity of someone who has spent hours not allowing herself to believe this was going to happen. "Grandma," Lili said, into her shoulder. "I have you," Lulu said. "I have you." The other shapes in the darkness resolved slowly — the rest of the Indigo-Gos, and beyond them, the scientists from the Research Lab in their waterlogged coats, and others from the coast. They were alive, some of them at least, packed into the far alcoves of the chamber in various states of miserable. The ghost pirates had kept their prisoners. Apparently Gyorg had become their prison. Ap stood in the middle of it all — the crying reunion, the dazed survivors looking at the strangers who'd arrived with them, the turtle breathing its slow mechanical breath, the algae pulsing its cold light — and she looked down at the ocarina in her hand. She didn't remember taking it out. Her hand had found it on its own, the moon tear cool and familiar under her fingers. Someone would know what to do. The Happy Mask Salesman would have looked at the walls and the water and the drain and said something quietly practical that contained the solution. He would have had a plan for this. He had always had a plan, or the groundwork of one, and she had trusted the groundwork without thinking about it, the way you trust the floor. She looked at the people around her. None of them said anything. Not Thistle, not Kieran, not Wahi, not any of the people standing ankle-deep in the stomach of a mechanical god-fish with no visible exit. They were looking at the algae, at the walls, at each other. Eventually, without planning to, they looked at her. She held the ocarina and stood in the cold water and tried to think. "Man-made or not, something of this size would neat a heart, no? Something to keep it powered? We don't have much time, but..." As she said that, she finally noticed just how exhausted everyone was. Even Ap wasn't sure how much fight she had left in her. Alas, she was always was the last one to stop holding onto hope. (8) Stick: Hael, TUM, Wonko, Araris, TJ, Divergent, Archer, Stick, (3) Hael: Doc, Wahrheit, Mistfallen, @Stick. was removed from the Loop! Player List 0 Amanuensis Happy Mask Apprentice, AKA 'Ap' 1 @The Unknown Order Heroshi 2 @Araris Valerian Arenta 3 @Wahrheitswächter Wahi 4 @Ashbringer Coliver 5 @coco.pudding Amora 6 @|TJ| Cosmetica 7 @Stick. meeee 8 @Haelbarde Link the Goron 9 @Wonko the Sane Zymni 10 @Doc12 Thistle 11 @Burnt Spaghetti Cindra 12 @DrakeMarshall Squircle 13 @Mistfallen Soldier Kieran 14 @Divergent Gor Elam the Goron 15 @Archer Ouae the Zora 16 @TwinStorm Mumbo Edited March 18 by Amanuensis 5
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: So… are we roleblocking Hael or Doc I think we've already won the loop, so the roleblock doesn't necessarily accomplish a lot here. Probably doesn't matter who it targets.
Myst He/Him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I think we've already won the loop, so the roleblock doesn't necessarily accomplish a lot here. Probably doesn't matter who it targets. Actually… it might be in our interests not to roleblock either. I’m not going to explain why yet, because of reasons, but I’ll explain tomorrow. Also, once again. Unless you need to, we should limit what we say. It can wait till tomorrow(probably) Its a RP day
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 We should roleblock Doc in case he bought the rez mask, but I believe I know what Mist is referring to and he's right other than that one concern
Wonko the Sane he/him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 7 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said: Actually… it might be in our interests not to roleblock either. I’m not going to explain why yet, because of reasons, but I’ll explain tomorrow. Also, once again. Unless you need to, we should limit what we say. It can wait till tomorrow(probably) Its a RP day Are you sure? If you happen to be wrong about Doc, and he DOES have the Great Fairy Mask, he's capable of turning a win into a loss here. I don't think it's very likely, but it's still a consideration. That said, I do actually think the Bremen Mask is better used trying to hit the NK, which requires we not coordinate it in the thread. I forget who claimed Bremen, but maybe make a list of what you consider to be the 2-4 most likely elims still alive, then roll a die and block whichever you roll?
Myst He/Him Posted March 17 Posted March 17 8 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said: We should roleblock Doc in case he bought the rez mask, but I believe I know what Mist is referring to and he's right other than that one concern Yeah, Doc is a safe bet. It safeguards against my thing plus prevents rez
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