Wonko the Sane

Oddly enough, not from me, because I was moderately suspicious of you all game, so this really didn't feel like a shock or anything. Is Zymni holding a gun to Thistle's back? You know Alv? Are you going through old games, or is he playing again?

Wonko the Sane's Voting Record: Day 2-A: Archer (But I said I didn't really suspect him) Day 3-A: Doc Day 1-B: Mistfallen (briefly) --> Stick --> Burnt Loop B Dead Doc: calls out Coco, Burnt, and Stick as possible suspects. Day 1-C: Burnt --> Coco --> Burnt --> Coco Day 2-C: Mistfallen (only to cover dangerous edge case) --> Doc --> Twin (only to keep my vote from being useless) Day 3-C: Stick --> Doc --> Stick Day 1-D: Burnt --> Stick --> Doc (and while I missed the fourth exe, I'd been advocating for Coco all day). Conclusion: I am a nigh-infallible demigod and none of you should ever question me again.

Yeah, even before D1-C was over, that was brought up; we killed Coco because we KNEW she could afford Stone, but we acknowledged that if a different Elim had bought Scents, then Burnt could also afford Stone. Wait, why can't Mist be elim? I agree it's really unlikely, given the surrender, but I'm not aware of any evidence hard-clearing him. Gah! We're going too fast for Zymni's narrative to resolve satisfyingly. I keep having to accelerate my timetable. XD Now Thistle's dead, and I don't even have the space for Zymni to react to it. Well, I wouldn't say that; Mist did hypothesize a pretty plausible story where Hael is convinced that he's the next exe anyway and is going to lose the Loop, so he busses Stick in order to deepwolf and keep himself from being outed when Drake comes back. That said, there's a LOT of e!Doc evidence, most notably to me the fact that it's pretty confirmed at this point that he had Keaton, and thus lied about his scan. (Unless the team is Burnt/Hael/Mist/Stick, with Mist having Keaton, but that's kind of hard to countenance). What is your opinion, then, on the disposition of the Keaton mask? Do you believe that Mist had it? And if so, why did Burnt/Hael/Mist/Stick surrender the game when it was literally already won? Doc. I really can't plausibly see an e!Hael world at this point.

Why couldn't he? He had 48 at the end of Loop A, -20 for Scents, +30 across Loop B means he'd have had 58 going into Loop C. That's plenty for both the Keaton Mask and all the PMs he sent Loop C.

I really don't think it's fair to say he "threw it away". If and when Doc bought Scents Loop 2, it was not at ALL clear that silver was on the table. At that point, all he had was a single Loop where he'd been the Postman. That's hardly a guaranteed silver mask that he threw away. Heck, in order to get silver he still would have had to be sure he could get Bunny, which was not really something he could control at that point.

This time, when the Song came, Zymni was ready for it. She braced through the searing Light, and stood defiance as the laughter of the Demon King echoed in her... ----- The Beast awakens in the maw of a leviathan, roaring out its defiance. Nearby refugees and travelers shriek as the tendrilled face erupts from the body of their companion, and a solid plate of Shadow congeals upon the Beast's face. A small, floating child looks up with shock as the Beast emerges, eyes narrowing behind an elaborate mask. The Beast ignores the child; it appears weak. But the mask is dangerous. The Beast is reminded of the Dark Interlopers and the Fused Shadow. It roars it's defiance at the mask that wears the floating child; this thing does not serve the Master. It must be dealt... ----- The song finished, and Zymni found herself again in Thistle's cottage. She shivered, running her hand across her face to confirm that there was no plate of solid darkness resting there. Then, she rose, wrapped herself in scarves, and made her way to the Happy Mask Shop, wincing in the harsh glare of the Sun. It was time to end this.

Okay, I'm caught up. Oddly enough, I'm currently more convinced of Doc than Stick. Keaton math pretty much proves that Doc had the mask, unless we're in a Hael/Mist world, in which case the surrender is kind of wild. However, I'm left with the question of what, exactly, motivates Keaton!Doc to shift the vote onto e!Stick. The only thing I can come up with is that they'd already decided to surrender, and he was just goofing around. To further boost my opinion on Doc, I want to bring up his PM data again, which conclusively shows e/e messages sent via PM. That means that either Doc is an eliminator, or Burnt sent those PMs without having info from the Postman. Yes, it's technically plausible that she did so just for fun, or else all on her own made the remarkable deduction that, counter to typical SE rules, the "tineye" in this game could see PM recipients. But just because it's plausible doesn't mean it's probable. The most likely explanation remains a Doc/Burnt team, in which Doc either lied about the PM data, or told Burnt early on about the fact he could see PM recipients.

Geez, a lot happened today, huh. I still need to read like 4 pages of backlog. but my most important thing that no one seems to be aware of is this: @Mistfallen Soldier, it is impossible to buy two masks. The rules imply that it can be done, but I confirmed early in the game that Aman had changed that part of the rules; during my calculations about the Fierce Deity Mask. He confirmed that it was 100% impossible to own both the Bunny Hood and the Postman's Hat, because once you got a mask you were disqualified from buying another. That means Keaton HAD to be in your possession, or Doc's. No one else could possibly have had it.

Burnt. Obviously. Really? Why? In your opinion, why did a Burnt/Hael/Drake/<Coco|Twin|Mist> team surrender the game? Mist seems extremely unlikely to me, given the voluntary surrender. If the elim team contains Mist, we would have lost the Loop and thus the game if they'd just NKed someone. I had Romani. The plan was to get myself exed on D3 and reduce us to 5 total dead, meaning we only needed one dead elim. But Aman eventually came down on the side that that wouldn't work, and I would have been counted as dead for the Boss Mask. Hey, how do you do this "Next Page"/"Previous Page" thing? It's super cool, and is probably useful for someone who tends to write way to many words per post. Having a sensible explanation for your actions doesn't make you village. Doc's actions also make perfect sense in an e!Doc world. I'm not saying Doc HAS to be an elim, but I think you might be putting too much weight on the fact that v!Doc "makes sense". The question we should be asking is, does e!Doc NOT make sense? That said, I agree with Stick over Drake, so that's fine for now, at least. I'm less committed to Coco over Twin, but that's the last exe, so I have time to review before then. I know you said you're doing a full writeup on your preferred team, but can you give me a sneak preview on why you're so confident in e!Twin over e!Coco? That pair seems hazy at best to me. In point of fact, he only volunteered that the list existed. It was only after I pushed for it that he actually produced the list. I noted it as odd at the time but mostly ignored it. According to this hypothesis, absolutely everything went to plan for the elims D3C; they wanted Stick exed. Why, then, the sudden surrender? You think Doc's mask claim is THAT damning, that the entire elim team agreed it was impossible to win anymore because of it?

Zymni sat quietly in the dark, unnoticed, watching Thistle. Watching the others. Listening. And thinking. Thistle was hurt. Zymni hadn't noticed, had been too caught up in her own problems. But all these events hadn't been easy on the florist. Zymni remembered crawling, broken, into the Temple of Time. Remembered the searing pain as the Temple's light -- the Goddesses' Light -- washed over her, dislodging her from Time and from Hyrule. She remembered when she'd crashed into Termina. Into a place with no Dark Interlopers, no Fused Shadow, no Mirror of Twilight, no Seven Sages. No Twili. No home. She remembered her anguish and despair, her feeling of being so lost that there could never be a way out. Wandering Clock Town aimlessly in the night. Cowering through the days in bushes and flower beds. She remembered Thistle finding her in a flower bed and bringing her home. Termina... mattered, didn't it? It felt silly to even think. All these people, this whole world. Of course it mattered. And yet... somewhere inside, Zymni found she'd been reassuring herself that Termina wasn't REAL, not really. Not like Hyrule, like the Twilight Realm. She'd needed to focus on going home, to save her people from the terrible machinations of Zant, from the ancient evil of the Demon King. To see her family again. What had the fate of some barely-real mirage mattered in the face of that? Zymni followed Thistle's gaze. Stared at the little child in the green tunic. Ap. Ap wanted that too, didn't she. She was so afraid, so lost, so alone. But she kept working, kept moving. Because she needed to save everyone. She needed to be with her family. Ap... was like Zymni. Zymni remembered her fierce annoyance the previous night, at the old fool who stood in her way. Telling her that his granddaughter would send Zymni home AFTER the little Hero was done with what she needed to do. With newfound disgust, Zymni remembered the distinct feeling of petulant satisfaction she'd indulged in, seeing the old man's head roll. But he'd been right. Zymni drew herself up sharply, newfound determination singing in her. The Song could wait. Until after Termina had been saved.

Are you sure? If you happen to be wrong about Doc, and he DOES have the Great Fairy Mask, he's capable of turning a win into a loss here. I don't think it's very likely, but it's still a consideration. That said, I do actually think the Bremen Mask is better used trying to hit the NK, which requires we not coordinate it in the thread. I forget who claimed Bremen, but maybe make a list of what you consider to be the 2-4 most likely elims still alive, then roll a die and block whichever you roll?

You don't need to not trust Doc. I'm saying that killing Stick is optimal REGARDLESS of whether Doc or Hael is an elim.

This is literally every possible team, color-coded: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Coco Burnt/Hael/Drake/Twin Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc Burnt/Hael/Stick/Coco Burnt/Hael/Stick/Twin Burnt/Hael/Stick/Mist Burnt/Hael/Stick/Doc Burnt/Doc/Drake/Coco Burnt/Doc/Drake/Twin Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist Burnt/Doc/Stick/Coco Burnt/Doc/Stick/Twin Burnt/Doc/Stick/Mist Where the colors are: The Loop is already won The Loop is already lost The Loop can be won by killing Stick The Loop can be won by killing Hael Please, explain why you think exeing Hael is safer than exeing Stick.

The difference is, there is ALSO an obvious elim between Drake and Stick now. Exeing Stick only loses the Loop if that elim is Drake, AND no one else on the elim team is dead. So, only in these worlds: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc Burnt/Doc/Drake/Mist Given that you're in two of these, you should only be worried if you think the team is Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist. Do you think that?

There are only two elim teams in which exeing Hael wins but exeing Stick loses: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist Burnt/Hael/Drake/Doc For literally every other possible team, exeing Stick is superior. For example, you say you're of the opinion Coco is elim. Fantastic! We know for a fact that one of Drake/Stick are ALSO elim. Drake is already dead. So if we kill Stick, then we are GUARANTEED to have two elims dead. This isn't just the most probable scenario, it's guaranteed. If Coco is elim, then killing Stick ALWAYS wins the round. We are not going on about whether Drake or Stick is elim. We are saying that no matter which of them is the elim -- and no matter which of Hael or Doc is the elim -- killing Stick is the optimal decision.

Oh, sorry, I'm not trying to say you should think you're e or anything. I'm saying you should be more confident that Drake is e than you seem. But if you really see plausibility in the idea that Ash randomly spilled the codeword he gave Wahr in a particular PM, and then that just happened to be the one piece of information Wahr asked for, then I guess I can see why you're hedging. Looking back over this conversation, I realize we've been talking at cross purposes. I haven't been trying to say you should move your vote, I've just been pushing back against the idea that Hael could still be lying, which I really see as unrealistic. Likewise, I've been reading your messages as trying to defend the idea that an opsec breach is more plausible than Hael/Burnt/Drake/Mist, when you've actually just been defending your vote, yes? Sorry, it seems like it's just been a miscommunication.

Okay, I apologize if so. From my perspective, you appear to be saying you can't be certain Drake is an elim, because Hael could have gotten the code word from elsewhere. But the idea that Hael got the code from elsewhere is at this point as far-fetched as the idea that Burnt is a villager. Yes, because technically we haven't actually seen Burnt's alignment, it's still possible, but it would require her to be acting so ridiculously out of character and against her own self-interests that it's not worth considering. Likewise, the only way that Hael is lying about Drake is if Ash freely gave away the codeword at some point in the past, and Wahr and TUO don't know about it. This is utterly implausible. So, insofar as anything not mech-confirmed is certain, we can be certain that Drake has claimed Don Gero and is accusing you of killing him. Again, sorry if I'm misunderstanding you!

The information was requested on demand by Wahr AFTER Hael relayed Drake's accusation. Wahr and TUO then confirmed the passcode. The only way Hael is lying now is if you think that Ash, apropos of nothing, announced a private codeword that was previously only shared with confirmed villagers to the dead doc for no reason. For the record, I'm NOT saying we need to trust Hael is Village. I'm saying we have now got pretty ironclad confirmation that Drake has accused you, regardless of Hael's alignment. It's odd to me that you continue to refuse to acknowledge that, and dodge the obvious conclusion from v!Stick's perspective. Why do you refuse to take the clear indication (from your perspective) that Drake is elim? Why are you grasping at wild straws to avoid that conclusion?

Are you saying you distrust TUO and Wahr's confirmation that Hael has accurately reproduced information that only Ash, TUO, and Wahr knew?

What exactly is your team that includes Coco where we haven't already won the loop? Because we now know that there is an elim in <Drake, Stick>. That is not disputable; the only way to dispute it before was if Hael was lying about Drake's claim; and we now have solid proof from Ash that he is not. So if you want to continue advocating that you are village, you must claim Drake is elim. Like I said, there is only one world where we exe you and lose: Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist. Is that the world you think we're in right now?

Gah. Okay, fine. Anyway, I just finished catching up, and number one observation is that TUO is right. I still feel VERY uncertain about Hael vs Doc, and I really don't see why anyone else is so certain. e!Hael's actions are JUST as hard to explain as e!Doc's. Right now, we need to focus on what we can be certain of. And as has been pointed out, now that Hael has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has ongoing access to the dead doc and the continued support of Ash, what was <Hael/Drake/Stick> collapses to <Drake/Stick>. That means, like TUO says, that we should 100% DEFINITELY be exeing Stick, no matter WHAT we think about Hael vs Doc. There is literally ONLY one world where exeing Hael is superior to exeing Stick: if you think the elim team contains Hael AND Drake, but does NOT contain Coco, Twin, OR Stick. Is there anyone here who thinks that? Are there Burnt/Hael/Drake/Mist believers among you? Please, everyone, Hael vs Doc can be postponed. Drake vs Stick is a sure thing. Doc. Stick.

@Doc12 Your claim was that you received 12 rupees from PMs Loop A, yes? Then was this data a lie? Because I don't know about you, but I only count ten names in green there. Care to explain?

Well, there are only two malleable assumptions in my analysis: I assumed that e!Drake means v!Coco and v!Twin. I assumed that Burnt would not have PMed any of her teammates unless Doc was also one of her teammates. Doc being able to afford a 100-rupee mask is plausible, but it doesn't mean that he's telling the truth. That said, I think we can agree that this claim means <Hael, Doc> must contain at least one elim. Factoring that in, and resetting the above assumptions, I get: Burnt, Stick, <Hael/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, <Hael/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Coco/Twin/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Let's assume v!Doc for a second and see where that gets us. In Burnt/Stick/Hael worlds, we have to question why Hael willingly gave Stick up to the thread. In my opinion, this only happens if the elims are completely abandoning this Loop, feeling that they've lost it already. This only happens if we've already had an elim die, so we have to conclude that Coco or Twin is the final elim. In Burnt/Hael worlds that DON'T have Stick in them, this is a concerted effort to push a Stick exe through, presumably to win the Loop. if e!Drake, we're again looking at the crazy gambit, meaning Coco and Twin CANNOT be elims. If v!Drake AND v!Stick, then the elims MUST have access to the Loop A dead doc, meaning that there's an elim in <Wonko, Mistfallen> Burnt, Stick, Hael, <Coco/Twin> Burnt, Drake, Hael, Mist Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Coco/Twin/Mist> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Note: Every one of these possibilities has Burnt PMing another elim for seemingly no reason. We must conclude in that case that Burnt knew about the Postman's ability to see PM recipients. Or, I suppose, that she was just feeling silly? I hate to deal with that, but it's not entirely out of character. Also, looking at this, I did actually miss last time that Burnt/Hael/Wonko and Burnt/Hael/Mist aren't lost games. Somehow my mind went "three elims are alive in these worlds, therefore zero elims are dead". Woops. So these worlds are actually worth considering, as long as the remaining elim is Coco or Twin. Anyway, I'm up way too late and my analysis is probably suffering for it. I'm going to bed, and hopefully people can logic this through by the time I get up. I definitely feel like we now have enough pieces to be very confident about teams going forward. EDIT: I realized what my mistake on the supposedly unwinnable teams was: I wrote that paragraph AFTER concluding that those team had to have Doc on them (because of Burnt's PMs), then moved the paragraph around in the post without considering what it did to the chain of logic. Apologies.

I count a maximum of 8 total rupees across 6 total posts. You're going to need to accuse someone in <Drake, Wonko, Mistfallen>, I'm afraid. There's no way around it at this point. So, from what I can see, we can compile what I think is the entire set of all possible elim teams. This isn't an analysis on what I consider likely, it's a full, exhaustive list of literally every team I think is logically possible, given the following assumptions: We know there are zero elims among the Loop A dead. We know there is at most one elim in the Loop B dead. We basically know that Burnt is an elim. We can conclude (from the claims today) that there is an elim in <Hael, Drake, Stick> We can conclude (from the claims today) that if Stick is village, there is an elim in <Drake, Wonko, Mist> Given all those as assumptions, we're left with what I see as 4 possible worlds (split by which of <Hael, Drake, Stick> is an elim). The elim team must be one of: Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, <Twin/Mist/Doc/Coco> Burnt, Hael, Mist, <Basically anyone> Now, if we are in a Burnt/Hael/Mist or Burnt/Hael/Wonko world, we've basically already lost, barring Hail Mary plays with masks to block or redirect the NK tonight. So I think we should ignore that possibility, as there's not really a solution. I do realize that this is the category that includes e!Wonko, though, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt. e!Drake worlds are tricky. I can really only see one valid reason for Drake to kill himself last night -- a WILD play for control of the Loop, by making us exe v!Stick. This only works if we've exed ZERO elims so far this Loop, so it requires a v!Coco, v!Twin world. That leaves us with two elims out of <Hael, Mist, Doc>. We also have Doc's PM data from Loop A. There are three possible interpretations to it: either Doc is an elim, Burnt managed to figured out in advance that the Postman would see all PMs, or no PM in Loop A was sent between an e/e pair. Assuming Burnt didn't figure it out, we can reduce the reasonable teams to: Burnt, Stick, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc>, <Coco/Twin/Hael/Mist/Doc> Burnt, Drake, Doc, <Hael/Mist> Burnt, Hael, Wonko, Doc (probably lost) Burnt, Hael, Mist, Doc (probably lost) And then we have the most straightforward world: Burnt/Stick. Based on the PM data, this reduces to two worlds: Burnt, Stick, Doc, <Coco/Mist> Burnt, Stick, <Doc/Twin/Hael>, <Doc/Twin/Hael> So, interestingly, what we find is that Doc is on nearly every plausible elim team. I didn't think that's where I'd end up going into this post, but hey, what do you know? Stick. Doc. For the record, I still think that Stick is likely an elim. I just think that Burnt/Stick/Twin/Hael is VERY unlikely, and that's the only scenario I can see that voting Stick is better than voting Doc.