Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Is there a reason you're particularly defending Ash, and is there a train you'd rather make?

I mean it's kinda not nice imo to vote someone who has already said they probably won't be active that much so like what do you expect

I could get behind a Devo or a archer lynch

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I mean it's kinda not nice imo to vote someone who has already said they probably won't be active that much so like what do you expect

1. I think the point at least for Aman is that he suspects Ash is going Dingo. Ash has been in thread a few times, but hasn't said much beyond the SK engagement. However, it's definitely possible that Ash just got overwhelmed by thread volume which can be rough to handle (which is why Aman pointed out if he can manage it, Ash should probably be able to.)

2. Please, seriously, stop. I really get how you feel because I am not sure I am okay with pushing JNV despite my suspicions going there and I'm not going to enjoy if an Araris or Aman push becomes necessary. (We'll classify ethical concerns with bro ones.) You know your own alignment. You've mentioned regretting self-voting in terms of what it did to us in the QF, and the D1 claim in the LG. So...why do it again and create another nope chapter? Volunteering yourself as the CW instead of Ash is the least productive thing here because while Cash is willing to take you up on it, if you are V, you are guaranteeing us a ML on C1. Please make an alternative train or propose one.

...No one @ me about my suicidal tendencies in-game I'm trying to be responsible here.

3. Tbh Ash signed up for it anyway. Which is my way of saying, fundamentally, that you can't control what other people do, both on Ash's part, and the people voting Ash, and offering yourself as a train instead isn't productive here because it doesn't really fulfil anyone's goals and probably generates more noise and confusion for them (assuming good faith voting.) 

People aren't voting Ash because there's no better target. People are voting Ash for PoE reasons and so on. It's not like a 'there must be blood' world.

Again, no one @ me about my suicidal tendencies in-game I'm trying to be responsible here. Smdfh.

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I could get behind a Devo or a archer lynch

Why has your read of Archer shifted?

[Archer he/him]

Side note on the JNV discussion, they did feel bad for sussing me two games ago for trying to play a conservative C1, and I think that guilt has carried through to this game. Technically NAI since either alignment of them isn't eager to murder me. Could be an elim with guilt issues knowing they're acting in bad faith, could be a villager with meta considerations about who to kill today. 

I have a new SK suspect 

I'll sheep Aeoryi's vote 

Raveness Aeoryi 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

I am once again going to reiterate that I would rather be ML'd than ash

Is this because you are more confident that Ash is a villager than that you are yourself? Because usually we exe people based on what we think their alignment is.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Side note on the JNV discussion, they did feel bad for sussing me two games ago for trying to play a conservative C1, and I think that guilt has carried through to this game. Technically NAI since either alignment of them isn't eager to murder me. Could be an elim with guilt issues knowing they're acting in bad faith, could be a villager with meta considerations about who to kill today. 

I have a new SK suspect 

I'll sheep Aeoryi's vote 

Raveness Aeoryi 

It's not just you. Their Aeo read is whack and the last time they had that was LG97, though I suppose Aeo was huffing less chaos juice that game minus the 'exe Szeth' stuff.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Sadly I spent my whole break catching up from my last post, so will have to respond later. I'm OK with my Ash vote for now, though I've not landed on what to think about Wiz for joining.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Amanuensis

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Sadly I spent my whole break catching up from my last post, so will have to respond later. I'm OK with my Ash vote for now, though I've not landed on what to think about Wiz for joining.

Ash was one of the original people I was thinking to pressure when I was actually placing my vote and removing the joke one. And since you put one on him, I thought I'd capitalize on it to actually create some pressure as one vote wouldn't do much I think.

[Mat he/him]

Just under two hours remaining!

• Archer/Paradigm (2): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle
• Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Archer/Paradigm

[Archer he/him]

Turns out I'm busy later

Aeoryi Raveness

[Amanuensis he/him]

I didn't realize rollover was that early RIP. I won't get off work until several hours after the fact. Would rather Ash not die only for potential Dingo apathy, but don't see a more useful place to move my vote ATM, except maybe Wiz, but meh.

ED1T:

Basically RN today feels like a shoot and pray situation, no one is really standing out to me as either alignment

Edited December 13, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

20 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Kayana means "crazy" in another language. It's in reference to weird things that are crazy but possible I think

EDIT:

Also, Kas never gets NK'D C1. He always gets pocketed (and tbh, it isn't too hard to pocket him sorry Kas)

ED2T:

Also I totally am looking forward to an MU game

But why does it have a post cap of 100? (Oh wait I have 53 posts on this thread lol)

ED3T:

I'm trying not to bring up the concept of player metas but basically

Araris: known for once bussing (throwing Elim teammates under the bus to gain village cred) but apparently that doesn't happen anymore

Kasimir: known for being really really active as village but as Elim it is more or less active

JNV: known for being super inactive when village and more active when Elim. But is actually realllllly good at eliming.

Devo: Fairly well rounded as a player but apparently always votes EoD and likes to RP. Avoids killing new or returning players (if necessary)

Ravenclawjedi42 (thepresentparticiple): tends to move with public opinion with both playstyles. @Kasimir could give you a better perspective of their e!meta, but they've played the same number of games as me

Oh yeah and I do crazy chaos stuff sometimes it's more NAI than anything for me since I still do it as Elim but yeah

I'll bring up more as they come up.

ED4T:

@TheOokla929 - hi

(Reads list)

Village:

Kasimir: they took the active path, and as Araris (?) Said, they're active as a villager, and less active as an Elim, and if their e!playstyle changed it's not necessarily a bad thing. Also, if Kas is still alive in any cycle greater than like, 5-6 that's probably an Elim tell. (Kas will probably be C1'D anyways)

Neil: I like their contributions and the insights they've been showing. I cannot say much more. I like it.

 

Mild Village: 

Wizard (ravenness): They've been fairly joketive, and they did say that their Elim tell was going inactive (which btw, @Ookla the Raveness is kinda happening rn) but like I feel like this is standard wiz behavior.

JNV: Meta-cleared... For now. And sells quokas. That's probably the best part.

Archer: fake claiming is normally a village thing to do (granted, he did do it last game as Elim) but he does seem a bit quick to jump to conclusions but what can I really say.

 

Neutral (+)

TKN: they bring up some infrequent somewhat good points but like the archer thingy

Araris: Idk what to say. It's just Araris.

Ashbringer: They do seem legitimately invested in IRL things (finals, I think) so like this is kind of expected from them I don't know what e!Ash is like but I assume it's slightly different 

Neutral (+/-):

Aman: yeah he needs to post more 

Labyrinth (theookla929): 

Coffeecat: @Coffeecat you should probably post more

TheRavenHasLanded (of ravens): They really haven't said much game related but that's pretty normal for them. Technically they've played three games but really hasn't (I blame Sirta).

Cash (the rich): just NAI posts. Returning/newer player, so I don't really think they're *ahem* on the Elim doc

Neutral (-):

Ravenclawjedi42 (thepresentparticiple): The hedging as Neil pointed out, is strange. I'm sort of at a stop with my opinions on them but I will probably look at them later.

Mild Elim: 

Devo: TMI reasons and strange logic.

Elim for sure:

 

ah oki ty ^^

im ngl i saw your comment on "kas gets nk'd here" and saw that kas was already popping into a leader slot and kinda just assumed they would be. noted

noted on the meta, ill keep a note of this ^^

side note: plz dont use they/them for me ^^ i use it/its and he/him mostly

i think in general i like your readlist here, its pretty aligning with my own worldview (if not more  commented on xD) hopefully we'll get more from the nuller inactives? i think that'll end up being a c2 problem for me thoughwhen i have more time ^^

18 hours ago, Ookla thePresentParticiple said:

Just because it’s a role that can and will kill us, and as the game goes on it gets worse and worse to die.

I agree with this statement about Archer. We don’t know his alignment currently, and I’m happy to keep voting for him.

Wait, sorry, are you asking about Archer?

i mean, at this point, do you have anybody who's alignment you DO know? the same can be said about anybody in the game, i dont like this focus here about specifically not knowing archers?

and i was asking/commenting on archer's read on you there^^ you can feel free to disagree with me (i assume you would) but i think of everybody's reactions to the sk claim that i disliked yours

17 hours ago, Kasimir said:

So, a few thoughts:

-I'll do my own lookover of the responses closer to my afternoon, or at least after the painkillers are a bit more effective. Just kind of still need a break right now. Neil - thanks, yes, I do want to factor it in, though I'd note I'd still take your primary response to be pre-reveal.

-Part of my reason for waiting is that I do want @Amanuensis to chime in if at all possible because I value his thoughts especially on these sorts of things as it's directly in his wheelhouse.

-Oh, absolutely fair, I just didn't want to come across as inadvertently talking you out of the read because I think it makes sense to me, I just worry all the same. Admittedly I should probably have been more careful with framing it because I realised it was coming through as some form of "STAHP NO" and I wanted to convey a more "I think this is too fast, but I don't feel that strongly about it to push, you do you, I'd just warn there's a really big error-bar, and leave it to you."

-Fair. I think that's why I find the read intuitive, yes. I will say that E!Archer does this too, but I think there's a clear valence difference between how E!Archer and V!Archer carries this out. I'm going to withhold a read on Archer for just a little more as there's one or two interactions I want to watch play out before tipping my hand which I think will help me further get a tighter lock on this valence difference.

-cf. Ravenclaw, which also feeds into the @ of Archer - don't disagree. The meta issue IMO is more Ravenclaw choosing to vote Archer and arguing Archer's motives are probaby Evil - I agree it's backing up Araris but they're not hiding behind Araris's reasoning, which I felt was crucially what their E!self did in the game I'm using as a comparator (LG98a.)  Given this line of reasoning was raised in LG98b to later argue for them being Village, I definitely won't rule out metascrewing happening here. 

I agree it's hedgy, but that's the point I think - I'd've expected E!them to have backed down, or to have just said these made some good points and sheeped (this is using the LG98a baseline, so I agree it's a meta argument.) That's more what I mean by placatory - consensus position at the moment isn't exeing the SK sooner rather than later. After you and I both were disabused of the SK wincon confusion by Aeo and acknowledged the Elims were the bigger problem here, and JNV explicitly said the SK isn't our problem, they're cleaving against consensus here by sticking to their guns. They also hit against it early on by pushing on Archer for it, when everyone was just ignoring Archer.

But FWIW, I don't disagree with pressure on Ravenclaw rather than Archer and I giving them an early pass because clarity is always good and pressure brings clarity. And I'll probably also re-read LG98a and b just to refresh myself on the nuances of Ravenclaw's play if I want to push this further.

-I'm...confused about how you understand this the most (therefore agreeing with Archer), but the bolded bits don't, and you also have Devo as a prospective vote and I'm not sure if I just need more painkillers or I'm missing something.

-While we are on the list of Drek I Do Not Understand, I don't understand how these two things go together:

-Actually while we're at it, let's add to the Wall of Shame:

Why for the love of Honor would you expect a freakin SK counterclaim what the actual hell.

-Tbh:

I don't disagree but am not as sold on SK!Aeo per se. Part of it has to do with the posts I'm questioning uh...one or two comment bars above this, whichever, I'm not really being chronological now I'm just going through the thread and whacking anything that catches my attention ngl. I'm not sure I feel Aeo is the SK but she's definitely in my pool. 

I'm trying to suppress it insofar as I think I've contributed to her ML in three games now, and I don't know if her chaos is adding to my persistent E!lean. As I said, it's a button I'm trying very hard to keep unpushed this game because it has been distorting my judgement.

I do have other reasons for the read, FWIW, but they're largely vibe-based.

-FWIW I think active players often get v-read here to some degree. I am willing to understand that, or at least put you somewhere in null+s first, but don't feel confident ascribing anything too strong with unknown error bars. IDK. Some games I'm more reckless about the error bars, this game I feel a bit more conservative, which might be the result of the last three games or so.

I will say the ease of the read is a bit ??? to me too though, in context.

I don't know. Coming back to this comment bar, on reflection, yes, there are probably games in which I would have ascribed you a very hesitant light Village and moved on with the knowledge I would probably revise it going forward. I guess I really just am in a more risk-conservative mood rn.

-TFW I am now forced to either: a. sus JNV, b. question who this is and what they've done to Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims  c. ask @STINK to stop hacking JNV's account and just sign up like u should have all along smh  

-I'm curious if you've any specific thoughts on Raven ( @Ookla of Ravens - apologies for the ping, but I think tagging can help Neil sort identities out a bit easier.)

-Does the fact we can win without interacting with it factor into your judgement call at all here? Moreover, in that world, aren't you losing one cycle of pressure on Elims, effectively costing the Village tempo? What's your assessment of that?

-Right, Neil asked about FNG at one point - yeah basically. It's basically the one where you pitch your range differently so players underestimate you, and you can get away with it a bit because you're new (to the forum) which is the mistake Aeo's making here when- actually yeah let me get at that as well before I forget.

Do you particularly expect the Elims or SK to listen to you? Like what's the point of this. Sart's not playing.

But yes:

Correction taken! Have been playing a bit on Discord as well and it's a pretty different environment from forum, for sure. Would be curious sometime to ask about how you find it v. forum, but don't want to throw the thread into a massive digression rn.

FNG maybe not the best word here then since I was referring to it on the straight level, but Archer basically expecting you to believe it IMO requires you to be drastically inexperienced and I don't think that's the correct read here and am questioning why he even though it was the remotely correct projection. I think anyone who's played enough mafia meets enough liars to lose faith in all of humanity  Well, no, I suppose, enough to doubt or at least have more 'tainted' reactions to reaction tests, even if they're pure alignment-wise.

That should be it I think. I probably got ninjaed way too many times when writing this up >> Please tell me one of those times was Aman...

Edited to add:

Ah my bad - not meta, just substantiation of a situation in which I think outlier analysis helped to find an Elim in response to a reaction test rather than working on preconceived baseline responses. I do think it's worth having a projected baseline just to compare and set your own expectations. I just also think that also doing outlier analysis works a bit better rather than just picking up baseline deviations because your baseline can be pretty far off.

o7. wdym aman's wheelhouse though?

okay that makes sense from you ^^ i think regardless id rather wait on my tr though, and see how that holds out though (and ive also enjoyed archers other contributions even as ive disagreed with some of the conclusions)

another comment in which i nod and stroke my wise beard sagely. (i do not have a wise beard).

cf? i will again stare and assume this means that they know of this meta then and thus how to work around it? bleh i love nebulousity. i think even with meta handwaving out in the air theyre probs the best place for me to vote today. Ravenclaw (Ookla the Present Particple)

the way im reading it is its like.  youre an eliminator, you know that everybody else is not an eliminatoir aside from your buddies. but theres also a third party in game. if you see someone comment like that, you dont know their alignment technically, but you arent aligned with them. and here you have raven say archer is probably elim or sk, which at least isnt aligned with archer, but to me i think comes from an eliminators perspective of wanting to weed out a competing faction?

uh take this with a grain of salt because im new to thse convention goals and such, but jumping immediately to "oh this is convention indicative" rather than "this is alignment indicative" feels less concerned *with* finding a players alignment? thus a immediate pressure of it feels more e!aligned than t!aligned because... eliminators i think would focus more on convention goals to appear busy?  i prefer raven to devo atm regardless but it didnt sit v well with me ig

skip ahead a bit ~

yeah nah thats fine; i def get it but its still just... idk its weird i guess? not rlly much more i can say aside from it being weird. if youve got any concerns with me id feel free to work that out with you bc i love talking about myself : D

uhhh ive not looked at them (ravens) much at all but ill get a look over after this post ^^

ah okay^^ that makes sense. tbh i get the sense that this forum in general might abide to that sort of nicities tbh. we'll see : D 

mhm! chat mafia is like... way different to forums, i feel like forums have made me better at chat though which is swag ^w^ but no im not drastically inexperienced (though im not like... i dont consider myself insanely talented at either alignment)

hmmm noted. i dont often subscribe fully to analysis like that as opposed to typical analysis of posting though. fmpov stuff like wagonomics for example can be... easily manipulated by mafia? its always a secondary tool to me, not something id ever fully base a read off of.

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm trying to understand this with regard to your views on Aman's own predilection for reaction tests. But I don't disagree that the claim wasn't particularly believable, just on the basis of the context. 

With regard to 'sticking your head out is just asking to get voted on' - does this influence your assessment of the likelihood of E!Archer here?

While I also appreciate the sentiment given my known antipathy towards/hatred towards being Evil, and definitely hope to have a chill/fun Evil game with you and Aman someday (still working on it, the offsite games are helping and I just came off a non-traumatising, chill Evil game so the jury's out on whether I can bring that attitude back to SE and fix my Village and Evil games), I'm sort of confused what motivated...this. Because I don't think I was under serious pressure or threat vote-wise, and the last time I died to anything not a NK was probably in 2018 or so. Though I guess the other site's probably trying to break that, woohoo.

I am closing this browser tab if we're having a repeat of LG98b D1. I am done. I am not going to relive that ._.

I'm not sure why you are overdefending right now. I know this is a you thing but I'm also not voting you right now. Devo has a train monopoly and I'm currently considering how I feel about that.

Take it from AG8: doing analysis when dead tired gets you increasingly Pepe Silva trash.

Cool, continuing to ignore this because I'm not having a constructive response to forming a likely alignment-sensitive read.

I'd prefer not to. Part of the point is recalibrating your reads/what you take into account to how the player is, rather than asking the player to shift playstyles. I'm not asking you to not chaos, I'm asking you to not aggressively chaos at me right now because that is provoking a response neither of us will like if we're V/V.

I'll add for the record that while I know meta reads are controversial and it's been weird shifting from an environment where I am completely meta-blind to one steeped in meta, I do think they play an important function in allowing us to control for player foibles and oddities. I think that's worth preserving in an environment where we want to allow playstyle latitude.

If you don't like post caps, don't sign up for a light game of all things. MU doesn't allow post edits at all unlike us so you'd be busting that cap pretty fast.

And no, to clarify, I do not play on MU, our styles do not vibe at all. (Sorry Neil, not trying to uh, shoot down your other forum. I just don't vibe with that place, I'm too chill for it  )

If you don't want to, why do them? Not everyone has to play by offering a complete set of reads, and sometimes it's more aggravating to do so. My dirty secret is some Village games I just don't feel like Villaging. It just happens that players guilt me into doing it (not deliberately), or I know I'm about to die so I force myself into one more round of analysis to try to leave as much as I can for Village/in the hopes I can leave it in a good spot. And I really shouldn't do that either, but that's probably why so many SE players feel my E!tells are fairly robust.

Mat tried to N1 me, yeah. So did Aman

Aman I forgive. He's my bro and he just wanted to end my suffering instead of making me cry trying to make myself exe him or fight him.

As Aman says, Meerkats are cute animals with dull teeth and claws, so I'm not really sure why you'd wanna C1 me! It all works out just fiiiiiiiine!

I actually requested a pinch-hitter in LG98, jysk. There was none available so I soldiered on. And I did get one late in LG95 as a Villager, which was Stick's wild experience of pinch-hitting into a slot and...not getting sussed  

@Ookla the Bald - I know you work better by C3, but can you offer Aeo or Devo thoughts at this juncture? If not them, thoughts on how we should proceed with regard to the SK? (I'd prefer if most people avoided this question - I do have a reason for asking, but I don't want an answer to this from most.)

So there are three sets of things I need to get done in the thread, but I'd rather not bloat this post too much. I'm avoiding giving a solid reads list largely because I don't want to redo it all over again after dealing with, to be real honest, the clusterchull on stilts that's Archer's reaction test. (I'll explain why I consider it a clusterchull when I get to it.)

I can say I've got negative leans on the set of: <Aeo, Devo, JNV, Ravenclaw, Aman.> I don't consider Aman a player I'm willing to D1, simpliciter, given he's returning and I don't play with him often enough. 

1. Reads
2. Archer's Clusterchull on Stilts
3. Contemporary vote analysis

They're all kind of intertwined, I know, this is more a reminder for me.

tbh the commenting on sticking your head out makes me just think its less likely for archer to be an elim, unless it was some sort of huge bussing strat, but that itself just seems like a -ev play so id rather not assume that to be the case.

meh id acc gather that aeoryi's joking around so comfortably  town points in and of itself (though im gleaning this might be meta related). still not rlly looking there fmpov, esp with the recent like... whole page re-reactions to everything this just seems like bored villager play than anything nefarious)

also LOL trust me dw MU is like... scary. i dont blame u. its kinda weird to be playing on forums that do allow editing (like here and FR i promise im not addicted to the silly dragon website xD).

noted on your leans, will./... get to it later here xD

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Aeo, with all due respect, please get rest. I don't think people exeing you or not exeing you is going to hinge on you giving reads at this point, and one of the players who did get ??? over you, Neil, has explicitly stated he doesn't want to push you this cycle so you're fine. I for one regret ignoring that good tonal read in late D2 of LG98b but also am coming off having MLed you three games in a row so the read bar to actually push and exe you this cycle was always going to be higher in my head. Sure maybe you're E, that can be a later cycle problem, I'm cool with that.

Like look. Pareto principle right. Do you expect tired reads to significantly/materially contribute to the Village or that a significant chunk of players here - apart from, IDK, Neil, Archer, Aman if not busy, Araris - will go over that reads list and engage with it, or be significantly informed by it? On the flip side, do you think that it's proportionally in terms of effort-reward ratio in terms of how much it can contribute to you not getting exed?

Pragmatically, assuming you're V, there's a good chance you say something in exhaustion that just looks even more sus or gets taken the Wrong Way, which is even more counterproductive.

Also like people need to stop it with the Orlok 'i gotta give reads/get contemporary to get back in the game later on though' like...just don't? Just show up, Christ, it's a lot better to have you here and now than slogging to slowly do it bit by bit.

seconding a; dont feel inclined to show up if youre not feeling it! ive got better fish to fry than you today ^^. just get some rest and we'll find you tomorrow (i should have more time c2 as well fwiw, but final stuff has been lacking me for time ;_; as well)

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Same, tbf. But the offsite community is helpful for that. Not saying SE is toxic, but playing in a super chill environment where I don't feel players are expecting anything from me at all and where I don't feel obligated to give Village everything/not let my teammates down has been very helpful for restoring perspective.

It's just a game. It's okay to check out. Sleep matters more for your sanity, ability to analyse, and health, Village will take care of itself, and you reaaaaally aren't near being exed right now.

stick is toxic i hate stick (this is a joke i love stick)

 

there was a post by Aman that i wanted to respond to as well but i didnt initially multiquote it so im responding here bc i think this is roughly where it would have been anyways.

clarification to my v!read of you then: it wasnt exactly a v!read it was a "off vote option list", which i kinda realized i didnt have anything substantive to move you off of that anyways...? which is a shrug to say you probably shouldnt have been there anyways but youre regardless not where im looking today anyhow. as with kas, feel free to prod me for stuff or concerns ^^

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

 H'okay. Archer's Clusterchull on Stilts.

1. Preliminaries

  Reveal hidden contents

I call it a clusterchull on stilts because you'd think it's a single reaction test. But it isn't. And here's why:

Archer makes at least three separate claims, with increasing insistence as he realises he isn't being taken seriously. 

A. 

This is the first one, marking his entrance into the thread. It's easily passed off as RP, and I'll note straight off that my personal reaction when catching up with the thread for the first time was "oh that's cool I didn't know he was RPing as a character with SK claim history. Very Archer though."

B.

Slightly under an hour later, Archer repeats the claim. I would say it's still missable as being an RP thing - I certainly thought it was that.

C.

By the third repetition, it seems clear Archer wants a reaction. Or some kind of reaction.

D.

IMO this comment from Archer makes it pretty clear it was a reaction test but YMMV.

If you think, in theory, that Villager and Elim (and SK) responses should be differentiated because of differing strategic priorities and TMI, even if weakly so, then you can argue that it's worth aggregating all the responses into a single bucket, as Archer's analysis clearly does. IMO, I think it's worth not doing so, because you want to track how responses evolve or shift across time when searching for outliers. Also, again, if you think TMI and differing strategic priorities inform responses, then the pattern should be just as visible early on as it is later.

To put the point another way: how you react to anything when Evil is how E!you reacts to anything. I recognise this is a controversial claim among many who will insist (perhaps correctly) their Village self would do the same thing, but the fact of the matter is that TMI is what causes you to reflexively hesitate and project what your V!self would do. To be sure, some players aren't very good at hiding in responses - Aman, for instance, absolutely hid very well during one reaction test run by a different player ages ago. And some players aren't very good at doing reaction test analyses - my results for instance have often varied in terms of how useful they are. Necessary caveats I suppose.

FYI: if you think Archer is E aiming for cheap V!credit (which I think is a possibility worth considering) then I think it's worth looking for where his teammates would be. Because then there is absolutely no way in hell his teammates didn't know this was coming.

2. Categorising Responses [RAW]

(You'll want to skip this if you're short on time. I'll repeat this in a section below that summarises/organises the results more intuitively. This is me showing my working/actually working this out for myself.)

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Responses to A:

Something Screwy: Neil questions if Archer is planning a bucket strat early. This is pretty much not a bucket strat environment, so I'm going to say Neil isn't serious (feels like pregame banter to me), but I think it reflects a sense that something is up with Archer, or a willingness to engage with it. It's a response that comes a minute after Archer, indicating high immediacy. I'd note in an E!Archer world, they're unlikely to be teamed. Archer is not going to get his teammate to respond immediately to this.

Note: I have no idea how in the nine hells Archer can see this:

and go "yes, you know what, this guy is clearly new enough that a new player baseline is the correct baseline here."

Noisy: Aeo self votes and asks Mat about PMs.

You can argue this is a variant of an Ignore response, and question why I'm disambiguating it from Aman's. In truth, I just feel that there's a different valence involved - they both Ignore but in different ways. Aeo does something arguably as attention-grabbing as Archer's own entry into the thread, and Aman mourns Elan.

Ignore: Aman mourns Elan. Pretty much ignores Archer's opening here. 

There's an ongoing back-and-forth between Neil and Aeo, and some mild exchange with Aman. I think it's worth saying that in an E!Archer world, none of their thread debuts feel quite right for an Archer partner. The point is to give Archer room for his play, not smother it with indifference.

Responses to B:

So Archer escalates, and repeats his claim.

Engage: Aeo highlights the fact that Archer is making a Serial Killer pun. (Note that I don't actually think, contra later Neil, that this is really obvious as I think it's missable as RP early on (at least cf. A), and lean a bit to Devo's interpretation. I think it's Archer's trenchant insistence that makes it clear the possibility of a reaction test is more salient.)

Vote: Araris votes Archer because Araris is too old and grouchy for this kind of nonsense

Responses to C :

Archer escalates a third time.

Scepticism: Aeo definitely does not buy it. (As Araris intimated, frankly no living being with a brain should.) 

Scepticism & Vote: Ravenclaw also votes Archer. They don't think Archer is the SK, they just don't see why a Villager would claim SK. Sidenote I'm curious why Ravenclaw says this:

What's going through your head at this point? Why would it even be an intuitive thing that people would want to keep the SK alive here?

No one @ me here about the murderpuppy I mean it  

Ignore: Ash ignores and replies about SE's SK history. Wiz replies to an early vote, also completely ignoring this. Worth noting that Wiz seems to be in a good mood and spends a decent amount of time bantering with Aeo.

Ignore: I actually nearly forgot this guy and had to come back to him which raises a bunch of alarms in my head. Raven interacts with Wiz and Aeo. Zero reaction to Archer's claim despite Aeo flagging it explicitly as a claim. I think this is really interesting because of all the players, you'd expect Raven to have a fairly pure response, given he was dead by the time Drake tried a reaction test in LG98b.

V Lean: Neil V!leans Archer for it on thread comfort basis. ( @neil the beguiled question for you here: how do you feel about Aeo's and Wiz's thread comfort respectively wrt their claiming of distancing and E/V in thread?) 

Ignore: It's interesting Archer flags TKN out as a believer because TKN's very first reaction is absolutely a hard ignore. TKN interacts with Aeo's self-voting, and Wiz's meta comments, but nothing in terms of Archer, meaning this is a solid commitment to ignore.

Not Again: I don't have a good categorisation for my response. I'd argue it's different from Something Screwy or Scepticism because I'm trying to ignore Archer here (since I theorise it's a reaction test), but also engage cautiously with people who are making Archer reads, which is really just Neil I suppose. 

Indifference: JNV basically just shrugs and says even if Archer is a SK, he isn't really relevant to the Village's wincon. This combines scepticism with a directional view IMO - 'don't think so, and doesn't matter if true.'

V Lean: Devo as well, but on a convention game basis. ( @Devotary of Spontaneity - Are there other players completing convention games of which you think this logic applies to?)

Sarcasm/Scepticism: TKN, after Archer explicitly, outright, directly claims SK in a performance worthy of the Ignobel...is there an Ignobel version of the BAFTAs? No?

3. Categorising Responses [COLLATED]

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Something Screwy: Neil
Ignore: Aman, Ash, Wiz, Raven, TKN, Cash
Not Again: Kas
Indifference: JNV
V Lean: Neil, Devo
Noisy: Aeo
Scepticism: Aeo, Ravenclaw
Vote: Araris, Ravenclaw
Did Not See: Coffeecat (Silber), Alpha, Cash

Just to rehash, the point of outlier analysis isn't to ID all the Elims. I can't really think of a reaction test run on this forum that caught all the Elims in one fell swoop and I don't think anyone who runs a reaction test expects to be that wildly successful either.

As a point of comparison:

AG9:

There are Elims that weren't captured in this reaction test, and you can see Elims in two of the highly-populated strata. The key here is that one Elim, Lion, was the outlier - the others were findable through other means.

LG98b:

Rilla's (Tani's) response was qualitatively an outlier within the strata, but let's ignore that level of detail for the moment. It's worth noting that Rem's (Archer's) was what you'd probably think was the Village response (this was a fake Seeker ploy) and yet it was still the outlier. (This is personally why I think outlier analysis is worth doing.)

So, having qualified our expectations, let's revisit the pools:

These are our isolated responses, giving us a pool of <Neil, JNV, Aeo, me.> We can probably weakly consider Ravenclaw or Araris to be within outliers but IMO, this is already an abuse of the spirit of outlier analysis.

Two responses there stand out to me: Neil's and JNV's. (I'm personally a non-starter for myself.)

1. Neil was very quick to suggest, jokingly I think, that it was a bucket strat, which indicates he recognised it both as a claim and a likely play. His later comments substantiate that this was his attitude going into the cycle. This is interesting to me because I think pretty much everyone else took Archer to be joking, which accounts for so much of the early thread banter. I think in Neil's case, it's muddied by cross-forum differences. I think MU is a lot into early cycle banter, not sure about mafia.gg.

2. JNV was pretty quick to file this as a non-issue and move on. They also later clarified they felt a gambit was in V!Archer's meta but:

I kind of want to cross-reference this because I guess, again, cleanness of the inference, for want of a better word. JNV did come off a game where we misvoted Archer trying to be less gambity, but also came off a massive gambit E!Archer game. 

They later elaborate:

I know this is weird coming from me as I spend most games defending JNV from people and this is the one game where it's the opposite because people are cool with them and I'm not sure I am. (But also don't wanna ML Quokka Buddy if I'm wrong )

I don't know how to describe what's nagging at me, and I know I'm sounding like a broken record. Maybe I doubt too much or I'm overcompensating for my personal confusion, but this just feels cleaner than normal JNV and I don't know why. This is absolutely a meta thing, but it's bugging me.

In summation:

JNV.

@JNV Quokka Buddy / @Amanuensis ThreadPMBro  please talk some sense into me.

 

side note i... have no clue what on earth is up with these "thread pms" and im afraid to quote posts with them because of that ;_;. can i get an explination bc my greedy clicky fingers wanna open them

i wanna dissect this further but i will answer the question of me bc time :wowee:

generally id say stuff like that skews more v than e, but depends on the player. i wholeheartedly dont believe theyre *both* elims here because that'd be *too* bold for an elim to do itt but ~vibe check is fine

3 hours ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

jokes on you I don't know what bucket strat means

I think my v!Neil read comes more from the thought that if you've just migrated and gotten elim, do you not sit back a little at least? Even if your team gave you the green light, I feel like you'd be more anxious about being visible. Also Neil has felt like a helpful contributor so I trust him

 

3 hours ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Right now I'm down to you, Bald, and Aman(?) as my suspect list. (Opinion on Araris depends on C2 performance.) I don't really see why I should trust you. And getting rid of you solves my two ravens issue. 

Side note-Neil ISO might undermine my initial read of them being bold. Willing to reconsider since they said they'd sit back. 

I may not be a psychology expert, but my trick of doing the job badly so you feel compelled to correct it has worked pretty well for me so far :P. 

Speaking of jobs done poorly, speed run of Neil responses:

When I see a reaction test, I feel obliged to respond because I'm a control freak as an elim. I'm projecting. No, my playstyle isn't generalizable. E!me commits to one stark view of the rt, see previous LG for an example of Drake calling me out for that. 

Araris and Kas have predictable habits. Araris does a stab votes the first reason he sees to vote someone-claims to reconsider-actually reconsiders in the first round that's fairly low impact. Kas self excludes from rts, but can be caught starting to analyze them if not forewarned. Both players followed this pattern. Araris would do it regardless of alignment, Kas I think showed his village hand by doing so. 

Participle held two beliefs at once - that I'm evil and neutral, which is convoluted. Elims would adopt a simpler belief imo. 

Misread Bald's sarcasm as genuine. Ignore that. Although I'm curious where they've gone to. 

Aeoryi has started doing predictable chaos (*always* self voting) which I find ungenuine. But it's NAI. 

What's acc stand for @neil the beguiled

generally im a lot bolder, uhh but on MU im never nk'd early meanwhile on FR despite being new there ive been a n1 target twice ;_;. which. i kinda dont wanna be here lol. but also outside of early game ive not had quite as much time to devote into thread so im mostly popping in with larger quotewall responses.

 

depending on context, account or actually. i tend to use it to mean actually more often so thats probably how i used it.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm admittedly back to questioning if I'm once again LG84 tunnelling on you as you had a gambit response there that threw me as well and that I couldn't get over for most of the game until you killed an Elim.

Maybe I should take my own challenge to Archer seriously and accept I'm just not good at projecting/modelling your assumptions.

Mass PR claim (qua PR not in detail.) Mass regular claim. So there are two buckets. PRs taken at face value, so Village doesn't accidentally kill PRs and focuses on cleansing within the regular bucket. PRs try to Stay Alive and use abilities wisely. There are a bunch of tactical considerations there. Don't ask me why I've heard of this.

okay whoops that is not what i thought bucket strat meant. to me i thought it was a pr claiming early so that doc (lurcher) would be on them (at this point i hadnt realized that sk was immune to elim kills). but also generally speaking thought it was joking

19 minutes ago, Ookla the Destined said:

Just under two hours remaining!

• Archer/Paradigm (2): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle
• Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Archer/Paradigm

this wagon formation always kills a something something. i dont rlly like any of these wagons ;_; 

[TheRavenHasLanded he/him]

point taken, im just not gonna vote.

[neil the beguiled]

4 minutes ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

point taken, im just not gonna vote.

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I didn't realize rollover was that early RIP. I won't get off work until several hours after the fact. Would rather Ash not die only for potential Dingo apathy, but don't see a more useful place to move my vote ATM, except maybe Wiz, but meh.

ED1T:

Basically RN today feels like a shoot and pray situation, no one is really standing out to me as either alignment

if i could entice either of you to change or make a vote to prevent a tied vote for #wagonomics i think that'd be more productive than a rng selection tbh. ugh im kinda annoyed at being here so late to the bell but ive been kinda busy waugh

EDIT:

ill be back in like 10 but rng ties make me anxious ;_;

Edited December 13, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[TheRavenHasLanded he/him]

Archer

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Well that's making it a tied vote. I could vote Aeoryi or RavenJedi, but since I won't be around for the rest of the cycle it makes more sense for Aeoryi.

[Mat he/him]

Twenty minutes:

• Archer/Paradigm (3): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle, TheRavenHasLanded/Ravens
• Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Archer/Paradigm
• Ravenclawjedi42 (1): neil the beguiled

[Ashbringer he/him]

I slept in again.

Hopefully I get some work done this afternoon so I'd feel more in time to poke around here / not go Dingo, but I don't really want to mess with a tie or near-tie that I don't know what's going on. Is it between Archer and Aeoryi for the early SK discussions? Or more similar to me?

 

I hope this isn't what I'd do at an actual convention, just not talk to anyone 

[neil the beguiled]

this is so.... headinhands. id rather not go either of them- would anybody be willing to swap to ravenjedi instead?

[Amanuensis he/him]

I guess I'll join Neil on Ravenclaw/Participle and call it a night, glgl

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I slept in again.

Hopefully I get some work done this afternoon so I'd feel more in time to poke around here / not go Dingo, but I don't really want to mess with a tie or near-tie that I don't know what's going on. Is it between Archer and Aeoryi for the early SK discussions? Or more similar to me?

I'm not certain actually...

Hope my gut is right...

Ash Archer

[Mat he/him]

Time!

[Mat he/him]

MR67: Cycle Two: Birdwatching

"CALL THE POLICE!!!" someone yelled.

"Can't," Mat muttered. "Cell lines are blocked." He'd already tried that. Whoever had done this clearly knew what they were doing, and knew how they wanted this to end. Nothing could get in, nothing could get out. They'd even managed to hack their way into the security system, permanently locking the doors. At least until this was over, one way or another. There was a group assembling to try to find something heavy enough to bust through the locks, but Mat had doubts on how successful that would be. Besides, it didn't change the fact that there were murderers in the building.

He had been prepared for this. He couldn't just run away. Not when lives of his fellow players were at stake. And he knew the other SErs felt the same. Even if that was exactly what the crazed ones wanted them to think.

...At least the convention game was semi-functional...

Suddenly, the lights went out. Mat's breath caught. If he had been chosen...

Well, that would simply be the end.

He was surprised at the extent of his calm. He just stood there through the panic happening around him, unable to see, unable to prevent what he knew was taking place.

The lights flickered on. They seemed dimmer than before. The SEr circle was smaller than it had just been.

On the ground, within the circle, were two feathers, jet-black and large. Two?

Raven feathers. Mat gulped.

Archer bent down, picking them up. They rested closest to him. Like they had chosen him for death. Wiz raised a hand. "Uh, isn't that kind of odd?"

And the SErs lost a third by virtue of Raven Unanimity.

*     *     *

Archer / Ookla the Paradigm was kicked out of the convention! He was a Reasonable SEr!

TheRavenHasLanded / Ookla of Ravens was killed! They were a Reasonable SEr!

Ravenclawjedi42 / Ookla thePresentParticiple was killed! They were a Reasonable SEr!

Vote Count:

• Archer/Paradigm (4): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle, TheRavenHasLanded/Ravens, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Archer/Paradigm
• Ravenclawjedi42 (2): neil the beguiled, Amanuensis

Cycle Two has begun! It will end in just under 48 hours, on Friday, December 15th, at 3pm PST.

• There will be an execution today, with no vote minimum and RNGd ties. When voting, please also vote using a non-Ookla name if possible.
• @TheOokla929 / TheAlpha929 is receiving an inactivity warning. Failure to post this turn will result in removal or replacement!
• Remember to submit any actions you may have.
• PMs are closed.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Ookla of Ravens / TheRavenHasLanded - Reasonable SEr
2. @Ookla the Raveness / The Wandering Wizard - Wizzy
3. @Ookla the Bald / The Known Novel - Shane Huge (jock/bully/audiobook listener)
4. Ookla the Paradigm / Archer - Reasonable SEr
5. @Winnie the Pookla / Araris Valerian
6. @Ookla the Resolute / Aeoryi
7. Ookla thePresentParticiple / Ravenclawjedi42 - Reasonable SEr
8.  @WildKarrde  / Kasim  (Shot Araris in the face a long long time ago)  -  (@Kasimir) 
9. @JNV
10. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Lena
11. @TheOokla929 / Alpha/Labyrinth - that one guy with a 2 year old named Kaladin
12. @Coffeecat / Silberfarben
13. @neil the beguiled
14. @Amanuensis
15. @Ashbringer
16. @Ookla the Rich / Cash67

 

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

That was not the flip I was hopping for >>

[Amanuensis he/him]

Dang it, I self protected for nothing smh. Guess elims respected the sanctity of my ThreadPM with Kas

[Aeoryi she/her]

How did I get nearly hammered