Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

Now that Aman's posted, as I felt this was better off coming after that.

FWIW Aman, I think my indecisiveness about you comes from several sources. I currently lean V all things considered, or at least not-E, which is all I really care about at this juncture.

• I felt your first post had good, bold energy. I also like the confidence of the Randed Sanderson  As I commented to Wiz, I've played or specced recent E!you enough that I don't believe you would pull such a play without pressure. No comments about peak!Aman - that's dated enough I don't believe he's remotely relevant here.
   
• There have been posts where I've wondered if you were ML shopping or being uncharitable, which made me suspicious. This is I think the part that's closest to MR66 / TJ flashbacks, where I hold this in the back of my head and never articulate it, and then start to paranoid you for no good reason. I think on reflection, some of it is because I unfairly expect you to be sharper at everything than me. And that's not quite right.
   
• I felt your WiM was lacking a little. But I'm getting that less now and suffering as I am from energy drain, I understand the need to just do your best with what you have and to be present etc.

So yes. V!lean.

@neil the beguiled - Genuinely, don't worry about it. I'm fine as it gives me something constructive to do in the thread without spending time on major analyses  Which makes me happy/feeds my sense I can be useful to the Village without falling into my usual trap of spending hours on wallpost analyses and burning myself out. Like, would I like to do that? Yes. But there's a RL thing that's been sapping my headspace/energy and I'm struggling more than I expected to juggle both. And the report. And sleep deprivation. (Please, if anyone suspects me, don't let this deter you btw. But I felt I had to make a note of it because it's pretty bad for me.)

5 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

There are numbers in there, not my kind of math.

You're just into subtraction aren't u  

Edited to add:

Neil - FWIW, I'll candidly add that giving Ash NKA duties (even while I expect to try to produce some of my own) is helpful anyway. In V!Ash world, we benefit from his strength at this, and it lets him produce content we can read, and maybe makes it easier as he doesn't need to get contemporary with the thread. In E!Ash world, I've also caught him before because he quietly tried to smuggle his teammates out of the NKA and did it a little too quickly. So it's overall good for the Village either way you slice it.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Rich said:

I like the reasoning behind Devo and me containing one elim, but I’m wondering if this is a Aeoryi/Kas elim play to put blame on two other villagers who happened to be in the wrong train. 

What reasoning? The idea that I would have pushed for an Archer exe today makes no sense. And why would you say wrong train when Archer was the villager while Aeoryi remains unflappable? 

Cash.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Have I voted today yet? I'm kinda feeling Winnie the Pooklah atm. Got a feeling this isn't the v/v game we have been hoping for, partly because I don't think Araris has commented on me yet (unless I missed it). Might be he's been trying to figure which of the Vanilla/Lurcher/SK Aman world we're in before engaging

ED1T:

Aaaand break is over. See y'all again in 4-6 hours lol. Don't be surprised if I poke my head in to keep up now and then tho

Edited December 14, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Now that Aman's posted, as I felt this was better off coming after that.

FWIW Aman, I think my indecisiveness about you comes from several sources. I currently lean V all things considered, or at least not-E, which is all I really care about at this juncture.

• I felt your first post had good, bold energy. I also like the confidence of the Randed Sanderson  As I commented to Wiz, I've played or specced recent E!you enough that I don't believe you would pull such a play without pressure. No comments about peak!Aman - that's dated enough I don't believe he's remotely relevant here.
   
• There have been posts where I've wondered if you were ML shopping or being uncharitable, which made me suspicious. This is I think the part that's closest to MR66 / TJ flashbacks, where I hold this in the back of my head and never articulate it, and then start to paranoid you for no good reason. I think on reflection, some of it is because I unfairly expect you to be sharper at everything than me. And that's not quite right.
   
• I felt your WiM was lacking a little. But I'm getting that less now and suffering as I am from energy drain, I understand the need to just do your best with what you have and to be present etc.

So yes. V!lean.

@neil the beguiled - Genuinely, don't worry about it. I'm fine as it gives me something constructive to do in the thread without spending time on major analyses  Which makes me happy/feeds my sense I can be useful to the Village without falling into my usual trap of spending hours on wallpost analyses and burning myself out. Like, would I like to do that? Yes. But there's a RL thing that's been sapping my headspace/energy and I'm struggling more than I expected to juggle both. And the report. And sleep deprivation. (Please, if anyone suspects me, don't let this deter you btw. But I felt I had to make a note of it because it's pretty bad for me.)

You're just into subtraction aren't u  

Edited to add:

Neil - FWIW, I'll candidly add that giving Ash NKA duties (even while I expect to try to produce some of my own) is helpful anyway. In V!Ash world, we benefit from his strength at this, and it lets him produce content we can read, and maybe makes it easier as he doesn't need to get contemporary with the thread. In E!Ash world, I've also caught him before because he quietly tried to smuggle his teammates out of the NKA and did it a little too quickly. So it's overall good for the Village either way you slice it.

ah alright. good luck with that ^^ glad to chat whenever i do have the time... sigh.

wrt ash and nka its kinda just frustrating to think i cant rlly do much there ig? i like doing nka and finding results off of it but im just... kinda limited here in what i can do by not knowing the standards or metas here ig? ok fr goodbye ill probs catch up in an hour or 2

[Kasimir he/him]

Oh with regard to Coffee pushing Aman-

In general, I'd normally give extra credit to a player of Coffee's gen (probably started playing a bit after Araris) for pushing Aman as that's not a thing an Elim does without having a deathwish and I fully expect Coffee to be working with dated Aman threat models. However:

4 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

Very very few villagers ever claim protect role out of the blue, to draw attention from the real PR... But I don't really know amanuensis so this might be possible

But I liked it anyway because I don't feel an Elim (especially with my current mental model of Coffee's profile) is as willing to engage with a BS claim. I think that E!Coffee, knowing V!Aman, probably is not going to want to be so willing to push that potential landmine, especially given Aman's FAFO energy. 

P.S. Can confirm wrt these:

25 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

World One, Reasonablaman: claims Brandon to protect the actual PR and play IKYK games with the elims/SK. Rather than let them just shoot whoever on C1, I'd want to put them in a position to have to call my bluff or ignore me, which gives us data points based on who they go for after the fact.

World Two, Brandaman: pretty much the same as World One except more risky, as I'm banking on the elims assuming I'm a Reasonable SEer or the SK just trying to waste their time.

Have been on the receiving end as maf, -10/10 do not recommend  Thank Ruin we could slap Aman with a conversion for being this nasty to us

8 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

wrt ash and nka its kinda just frustrating to think i cant rlly do much there ig? i like doing nka and finding results off of it but im just... kinda limited here in what i can do by not knowing the standards or metas here ig? ok fr goodbye ill probs catch up in an hour or 2

Fair, let me see if I can bring you up to speed a little via the analysis. I expect it'll be a bit easier for you as the game goes on because once we shift off the low infokill opening, mid to end game is probably a bit more standard in analysis for NKA.

Totally feel you though - the offsite game used disabled plurality and my vote analyst heart was screaming and crying because I'd have to sit and watch a ten vote train go unopposed for hours and not know if it was a hit or not or even have any CW to analyse >> Have never felt so useless in my SE life  

Edited to add:

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Rather than let them just shoot whoever on C1, I'd want to put them in a position to have to call my bluff or ignore me, which gives us data points based on who they go for after the fact.

Aman - I'm curious what your conclusions are?

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

35 minutes ago, Ookla the Rich said:

The elims spreading out does make sense, and the sense of frantic need is disappearing from @Ookla the Resolute, but it is not gone completely. 
 

I like Wizard’s reasoning for why they voted.  So I’ll move the vote off. 
 

I like the reasoning behind Devo and me containing one elim, but I’m wondering if this is a Aeoryi/Kas elim play to put blame on two other villagers who happened to be in the wrong train. 
 

For now: Devo with potential to be changed later. 

Yes. I don't think I specifically said that there was an Elim on the Aeo train, but I was just trying to say there was basically no chance there was two elims

EDIT: I don't think Kas and I are e/e because Kas is like, super village rn, but it could be possible.

25 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What reasoning? The idea that I would have pushed for an Archer exe today makes no sense. And why would you say wrong train when Archer was the villager while Aeoryi remains unflappable? 

Cash.

^devo sort of has a point.

EDIT

Also, just looking at kill MO, chances are pretty high that Devo didn't want to NK Raven. Ravenclawjedi42 as well, probably, but Elim teammates can override that.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute
And yes, I did make the decision to NK Araris C1 in the last MR, Kas

[Kasimir he/him]

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Also, just looking at kill MO, chances are pretty high that Devo didn't want to NK Raven. Ravenclawjedi42 as well, probably, but Elim teammates can override that.

Leaning against a Devo preclusion for Ravenclaw - Ravenclaw's easily on third+ game now and hasn't died that early recently. Devo wouldn't have issue and Ravenclaw's in her wheelhouse. I stand by my thought that any regular should've said no to a Raven kill, which is why I still lean SK (Elim team of three should have had at least one player who noticed) and think we can draw up a preclusion list there.

---

Sometimes, Kasim wondered how well he knew the other SE players.

It was strange, putting faces to names. Aman, once Ada, and all that talk about the glass box of emotion, and there he was in the flesh. "Good to see you, abang," he said, smiling. All things considered, it should really be adeh, but somehow, Kasim'd always looked up to Aman, so as to speak.

He'd been that way with Doctor, too. 

Most of his life, really. All the way to graduation ceremony during his two years of national service, after which most of his intake flooded off to maintain the security of the public transport network, and Kasim was shuttled off to shuffling papers and handling logistics.

Sure, there was a part of his brain that remembered all the fun stuff about murder investigations, but really, he knew nothing at all. Maybe just about as little as all the SE players circulating now, desperately trying to work out who among then would kill.

The smile faded as he turned away.

He told himself to be reasonable. People reached out to familiar things, to cope. They needed these things, these comforts, these rituals. Perhaps framing all of this as another game helped them handle the idea that some of their number were utter crazed maniacs.

Their. Them.

It'd been so long, it was difficult to quite see himself as a member of the SE community.

No. This much wasn't the truth: he'd never really felt he'd belonged. Had never taken himself to.

You could be comfortable with that, Kasim realised. Could be alright with being an observer, peering in at others. Could come to the realisation that you felt as though you were always watching from the outside in.

("I don't really know why you always feel the need to isolate yourself from us," El'd said once. But El wasn't here either.)

[Amanuensis he/him]

Someone (probably Kas) remind me to RP with Kas later. Should be ezpz. Ty

[Aeoryi she/her]

Tbh I don't think anyone can answer the question of whether Ravenclawjedi42 was in e!/SK!Devo's wheelhouse except Devo, which is a bit... Problematic

 

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Tbh I don't think anyone can answer the question of whether Ravenclawjedi42 was in e!/SK!Devo's wheelhouse except Devo, which is a bit... Problematic

I think Ash can. I really don't care if you think his process was right or wrong because you made the Devo call - he finds Elims with NKA on a regular, repeatable basis, and that's good enough for me.

Edited to add:

15 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Someone (probably Kas) remind me to RP with Kas later. Should be ezpz. Ty

I'm so sad I was so stressed during QF59 that Keredin never got to flirt with Awoman  Though flirty things really isn't my usual writing wheelhouse so all things considered, we're fine  

Edited to add 2:

Hey @Ashbringer - if you have some time, could you run NKA on the kills, please?   We're lost without you.

Also @Amanuensis - I see your point on Araris now. Thanks for the catch. Had quite forgotten I asked him for his read on you while I was trying to decide how I felt about you given mixed thoughts.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Might be he's been trying to figure which of the Vanilla/Lurcher/SK Aman world we're in before engaging

Or I'm just ignoring your claim because you're you . I do think it's the sort of attention-grabby proactive thing that a villager would do to be rude to some poor elims that are just trying to kill everyone. But every time I've figured you out as elim it was later in the game, so I'm not worrying too much about you right now.

[Kasimir he/him]

59 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Or I'm just ignoring your claim because you're you . I do think it's the sort of attention-grabby proactive thing that a villager would do to be rude to some poor elims that are just trying to kill everyone. But every time I've figured you out as elim it was later in the game, so I'm not worrying too much about you right now.

Is there a reason you're making this assessment but the opposite of Archer?

Edited to add:

The perfect is the enemy of the good. I still haven't finished my SoD analysis for the full kill analysis but I think Raven can be done pretty off-the-cuff as there was no realistic world in which Raven would've come under vote pressure C1.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Let's take out our flips first.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Neither I nor Devo would do this. It's negotiable that I might under very limited circumstances but there's nothing like that in this game.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

JNV would not either. They consider killing new and returning players mean. It's possible JNV didn't recall Raven was new, but given they played in both of Raven's games, that's less likely I think. They also saw my snarky profile of Raven in Archer's QF, which included this classic line:

On 11/29/2023 at 11:37 AM, Kasimir said:

-Flipped V N1 after getting cruelly shot by some monster who N1s new players (sorry withholding judgement sorry)

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

I don't know Aeo's kill MO enough. I could see a world in which Aeo kills Raven but I don't feel Aeo is a friendthreatkill type. And I think given Aeo's apparent reaction to Ash being exed, it's safe to say Aeo probably wouldn't gank Raven this early/this way.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Here's where it gets tricky.

Theoretically, Araris shouldn't do it either. I think, however, that Araris tends to be more mindful of returning players than he is of new players - I had to expressly warn him about Wit in MR66 though I was also wrong about Wit. It was a concern Araris did however find pertinent. However, Raven was N1ed in Araris's game and Araris would've been aware that was Raven's first game. I think in general I lean against Raven being an Araris kill.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

From here, I have to say unfortunately I think this pool must be preserved as a strict pool. There are ways to try to narrow it further, but must be marked as being more epistemically risky than the previous.

Current pool: <Wiz, TKN, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash>

Coffee, Neil, and Cash IMO are obvious people who have to be left in. Coffee largely played before the 'don't C1 new/returning players' deal became a strong social norm and neither Neil nor Cash would be aware of this either.

I think Aman would be sensitive to the norm under normal circumstances. What I'm not sure about is how much attention a busy Aman might pay to it, and he's been busy enough he might be unaware of Raven's circumstances. However, that being said, I think he might give Raven a chance. Not sure. Italicise Aman.

Ash and TKN have both been busy. They might not know about Raven. I sort of think Ash/TKN would check though, if unsure. Maybe italicise them as well. 

I don't know if Wiz knows. I think Wiz should in theory, also, care. Italicise.

In theory, Labyrinth/Alpha should be really busy and might have just submitted a kill really fast. Or could be so busy it's unlikely he'd kill, but I sort of doubt that. I don't think there's a decisive case either way.

Current pool: <Wiz, TKN, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash>

Final pool. Sorry it's not as small as it could be.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir
bolded to make question clearer

[Araris Valerian he/him]

52 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there a reason you're making this assessment but the opposite of Archer?

Yeah, Aman's claim is more likely to yield village-positive results, and there is basically no cost. Archer's claim was a lot more neutral. It might also be relevant that I was wrong about Archer's alignment.

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I think Ash can. I really don't care if you think his process was right or wrong because you made the Devo call - he finds Elims with NKA on a regular, repeatable basis, and that's good enough for me.

Edited to add:

I'm so sad I was so stressed during QF59 that Keredin never got to flirt with Awoman  Though flirty things really isn't my usual writing wheelhouse so all things considered, we're fine  

Edited to add 2:

Hey @Ashbringer - if you have some time, could you run NKA on the kills, please?   We're lost without you.

Also @Amanuensis - I see your point on Araris now. Thanks for the catch. Had quite forgotten I asked him for his read on you while I was trying to decide how I felt about you given mixed thoughts.

Oh, I'm not saying ash is wrong. For the record, he did find both of the other elims. I just am trying to say that only Devo can tell us (and maybe Elim teammates if e) who Devo considers new/returning and who she does not

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Oh, I'm not saying ash is wrong. For the record, he did find both of the other elims. I just am trying to say that only Devo can tell us (and maybe Elim teammates if e) who Devo considers new/returning and who she does not

Fair. You're her most recent teammate, don't you have some idea? My sense is Ravenclaw passes, because you both played the same first MR and no one blinks about C1ing you or Ravenclaw anymore. 

I actually have a crack theory on why Raven died which would if true point to a very narrow slice of potential SK candidates. However none of that is relevant here as we need an Elim out

[neil the beguiled]

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm working through it. Genuinely not sure, need time. Do not want to commit prior to finalising vote analysis because I think timing and apparent wagon viability matters here wrt hypothesising. Will promise to get back by Rollovet (24 hour mark) if my exhaustion is unkind, as soon as possible/earlier if I can? Am working on it I promise. And yes, by which I mean I do want to try my own NKA though I'd prefer Ash's over mine, but I need the vote progression analysis done first for timing reasons.

Can I ask what this means? (Highlighted and bolded.)

Devo would bring it up as an objection, and the teammate would need to probably have a stronger view about it. IDK, it wouldn't be hostile or violent - when I say I recall this from being E with Devo, I think it was back in a MR she, Fifth, and I were Elims together. We wanted to NK Mat, or considered a returning player (IDR the full context, can pull it up later as I think speed more relevant now in your exhausted state), Devo pointed out that wasn't cool, I said, "Yes, but half the game is returning players or new players so our choices are limited." And Fifth and I outvoted her. I think. Maybe Devo remembers. I'll check later.

I think to me this is more indicative Raven is likely a solo SK kill. I struggle to see an Elim team not have at least one regular who would point out the issues with going Raven. Like is that impossible? No - it just requires a convoluted situation where a non-regular swapped the kill late before the regular could object and so on, but yeaaaaah.

There's a reason it became an unspoken taboo, and that's to do with how welcoming the community was. I know, I know it's a complicated conversation and there are many other factors to what's offputting and what's not, but I do think it's harsh even as we suffer from playerbase renewal to be killing new players early if there's no urgent tactical need for it and all that.

I don't know I'm frustrated, just exasperated because that was a needless N1 back in LG98. But yeah. There's definitely a potential pool, I'll draw it up when doing NKA.

Ha. Hahahahahhahaa.

I need to introduce you, my good sir, to a meme from Stick

 

I kind of think Araris is just being Araris. But I tend to project the alignment I want Araris to be (Village bro please ) rather than look at what is there. So I really do not/would not trust my judgement on Araris even though I try.

I will say I hesitate on whether E!Araris would've just voted Archer like that. It's a lot bolder than I would expect from him. A Ravenclaw kill would be entirely within his targeting MO though - he opens with low info kills (I'm presuming this for the moment, as opposed to aggressive control/threat kills.)

Edited to add:

Yes, please rest well! Will do. I've some OOG stuff as well that will be preoccupying me so will attempt to pareto principle my thread presence where possible. With regard to Araris - nulls are my default tier. He was stuck there because I had no reason to V read him but also felt what I saw was...normal for him. I went back and forth about whether I thought E!Araris would be as aggressive on Archer (kind of doubt it) but at the same time, recalled he noted once that E!him has a tendency to be more annoyed on issues of play than V!him, which stood out to me a bit in the sharp tone of his response to Archer. So I shrugged and nulled him.

Edited to add 2:

Neil, maybe let me be candid here. I think - and this is me committing prior to completing vote re-analysis on rest - that I generally disagree with your and Aman's approaches on a broad level, largely because I feel and IDK if it's weird I feel that way wrt Aman because I feel both of you are - overexpecting from some players. It felt true of Ravenclaw, and I'm going to quietly admit it feels to me to be the case with Wiz too. 

Now, the thing I will admit is that I sometimes cut too much slack to players being weird when the simple answer is that they're just Evil. This was the crux of the clashes between me and Stick in our last QF because she asked too many questions (sorry, meme for Stick's amusement) because she felt I was essentially doing a purity read and I felt she was hyperfixating on low/casual/moderately experienced players just being inexperienced/susceptible/human/fallible in a way that made me think she was trying to LHF.

Maybe both of you are right, and I'm fine giving both of you the room to work and re-evaluating as things go on, which is why I'm not intervening.

This is sort of in the back of my head as well in terms of yesterday's trains and so on. 

no worries. you dont hold the entire village on your back, atlas xD

looking abck at ythat i think ive realized that i did not say words i intended at all. uhm, basically, if we're working with the concept of a more utr elim team, i think theres a decent chance that none of them were really wagons at eod? and working with a tl on aeoryi  this kinda affirms that theory, and then UTR elim team + unflipped wagon + unflipped wagon + two other wagons flipping t = more likely the other wagons are t? (add looking at ash to my to do list today plz). i think this continges on my theory being correct though. #wagonomics i guess

mmmm okay. this kinda feels a bit wifomy though to think about then... bleh its too early in the day for this. i dont know if i want to point out the fact idt an teamed/e!devo would probably want to not kill a low info person with an fos there though but. i unno, especially with the concept *of* low info kills. though i think quite a few ppl had sus there so this might be a moot point? wifom territory tbh. i do agree that i think raven was the sk!kill and jedi was the e!kill tbh (confbias my beloved) even though it probably doesnt mean much for us to discern in the long run.

o7. im kinda getting to the point that i think your bleeding emotion is like. evidence enough that you didnt. kill raven LOL. for lack of better reasoning. just like, mild stuff to re-affirm my tr here. a lot of times i think mafia end up being more performative with it but you just feel.... aching? and noted o7 will look forward to it

LOL. okay ill uhm. ill keep that in mind then. i def get that (me @ stick tbh xD[tho idt ive ever played with e!stick acc. only e!stake : P])

kinda in regard to above and the edit after but if you think theres somewhere better for me to look today, ill bite and take it, but as it stands atm; asaris is in my willing to exe pile (but i will admit i should probably be looking more at my nulls then- acc.)

 

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Yeah, in a Theoretical SK!Aman world, I might have considered voting Ravenclaw and killing him, assuming I had the idea prior to the flip. I also did complain about all the Ravens confusing me  as for E!Aman, I usually defer to my teammates or go for Kas early to save us both the heartbreak

I am generally very open to last minute Fire Drills on new wagons or wagons that have less traction due to wagonomics. Didn't love the Archer surge, didn't want to D1 Aeo, and wanted to give Ash at least one more cycle just in case they're Village. You asking for Ravenclaw votes was the only tangible alternative I could vote while I was at work

yeah no thats. fair. thats kinda what i wanted to do there anyways, but i dont get why you opt to shade me for it at the start of c2? can i have a readslist from you maybe? or a general wolrdview ig

7 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

 

I'm kind of suspicious of amanuensis, possibly enough to vote them later on. Let me break down the possibilities:

Amanuensis is villager:

Very very few villagers ever claim protect role out of the blue, to draw attention from the real PR... But I don't really know amanuensis so this might be possible

 

Amanuensis is PR: just why would they claim? Especially with two killing fractions that want them gone, they need to protect themselves all cycles just in case, making themselves useless beyond kill mitigation. Doesn't seem likely to me, but I don't have as much experience with this.

Which brings me to amanuensis is evil, whether E or SK, trying to draw out the real PR or just trying to seem less suspicious and possibly getting the real PR dead. 

SK amanuensis seems slightly more likely to me since it is a bit of a wilder play, and they could even make the Elim team think they are the PR role due to their kill immunity.

 

This are just my thoughts for suspicion on amanuensis, please correct any misinformation or fallacies.

 

I also kinda trust araris due to the wagon that is forming on them for no reason, kinda feels like Es trying to 'accidentally' get rid of a strong lategame player

my 2cs here is that this probably isnt a thing to get caught up on c2. either aman is killed for FPS, killed for telling the truth, or doesnt die. its probably not worth the cycle to focus on him as a vote target. fwiw i think of either evil that SK is the least likely option (why would sk, who wins when everyone else is dead, want to bait a elim kill on them when they want elims to kill off people too? thatd be a -ev play)

question, wrt the early sus on arasis here today (actually, 2 questions) 1, do you think that the suspicion on him holds no merit and why do you think its negligible? 2, say you Know arasis flips t right now. where are you looking at immediately? 

 

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I could see E!Aman not doing it at all. It's a very aggressive opening for E!him, and I've had that vibes off some of his posts. V!Aman has FAFO energy in a way E!Aman doesn't IMO. I'm not saying E!him wouldn't, but I've also played E!him playing it straight and I feel he ramps up to that kind of thing when E rather than guns it.

I'm interested in how you're so confident of this.

I've noted Coffee's argument with interest but I want to see what Aman says before I say anything.

Edited to add:

Tbh I like it. Coffee. Cash.

ill kinda defer to you wrt this, amans not on my vote list 2day for it regardless. agree its a good look from coffee tho 

5 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

@Kasimir I'm going to attempt vote analysis probably do you want me to do it before Neil or after Neil?

  i do not have a lot of time and i hate VCA i might be forever  xD. do it whenever and we can compare notes ^^

4 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

My basis is TMI

Okay no but basically why would Devo vote on me eod

4 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Oh wait

Devo

Then Devo probably isn't village

3 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Because in the event that

Aeoryi (4) Aeoryi, Cash, Devo, Archer

Archer (4) Araris, Ravenclawjedi42, raven, Wiz

(Which was what is was going to be until archer kindly invited me) thx archer<3

Then if Aeoryi flips V:

Archer Devo and Cash are the voters, and there is no way an Elim would put two of their kind in such a precarious spot. It just... Isn't where you want to be in as an Elim. We already know archer is a villager, but I suspect e!Devo/e!cash (moreso Devo) might've had a plan to push archer up for C2 exe and that would just be another misexe.

Additionally, if I myself am Elim, then Devo voting me eod doesn't make sense of both of us are e.

So Aeo and Devo not e/e

Cash Devo not e/e

In the event that archer dies (which is what happened) one Elim on a side train can get by without arousing much suspicious 

 

im not sure i follow your entire progression here but i can probably agree theyre probs not e/e? a bit shakier reasoning than i tend to go for (#wagonomics) (oh who am i kidding my not w/w reads are based off aimless fuddle anyways) but i understand this from you

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Yeah I'm not intentionally lurking. Been at work since 6:30 am and have been peeping whenever I have a minute, so I don't need to read everything on break and end up not being able to post.

Which is where we are now. I'm on break so will respond.

I don't mind the vote ftr, good to have wagon variety this early to feel things out.

Anyway there's four worlds in which I claim brandon:

World One, Reasonablaman: claims Brandon to protect the actual PR and play IKYK games with the elims/SK. Rather than let them just shoot whoever on C1, I'd want to put them in a position to have to call my bluff or ignore me, which gives us data points based on who they go for after the fact.

World Two, Brandaman: pretty much the same as World One except more risky, as I'm banking on the elims assuming I'm a Reasonable SEer or the SK just trying to waste their time.

World Three, Ballisticaman. I'm the SK that just wants to mess with the elims because I tend to be a v!sided neutral, given I have more fun solving than deceiving.

World Four, Kayanaman: is evil and just messing with the village cause I can. As Kas pointed out tho, I'd feel too much responsibility for my team to make such a risky play that early.

All of these are within my player meta but I would rank those more-to-less likely in descending order, personally.

yeah i mean. this sorty of reasoning is why its just. not the play to vote you here. i think its better to just... not talk abt it but generally agree to give you a c2 pass. though id still put e!aman over sk!aman purely bc theres an abundance of plays you can push with this sort of thing as e and less as sk, and as sk youre not even... incentivised rlly to play this way.

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Oh with regard to Coffee pushing Aman-

In general, I'd normally give extra credit to a player of Coffee's gen (probably started playing a bit after Araris) for pushing Aman as that's not a thing an Elim does without having a deathwish and I fully expect Coffee to be working with dated Aman threat models. However:

But I liked it anyway because I don't feel an Elim (especially with my current mental model of Coffee's profile) is as willing to engage with a BS claim. I think that E!Coffee, knowing V!Aman, probably is not going to want to be so willing to push that potential landmine, especially given Aman's FAFO energy. 

P.S. Can confirm wrt these:

Have been on the receiving end as maf, -10/10 do not recommend  Thank Ruin we could slap Aman with a conversion for being this nasty to us

Fair, let me see if I can bring you up to speed a little via the analysis. I expect it'll be a bit easier for you as the game goes on because once we shift off the low infokill opening, mid to end game is probably a bit more standard in analysis for NKA.

Totally feel you though - the offsite game used disabled plurality and my vote analyst heart was screaming and crying because I'd have to sit and watch a ten vote train go unopposed for hours and not know if it was a hit or not or even have any CW to analyse >> Have never felt so useless in my SE life  

Edited to add:

Aman - I'm curious what your conclusions are?

noted and seconded (though with a lot less knowledge of coffee themself : P)(side note is there a way i can disable smilies :[ i like my silly emoticons and i dont like spaces). i  in general think that sort of push seems more rooted in villager paranoia and responsiveness than an elim pushing for a miselim- especialy from coffee taking a step back and wanting aman to give a response before an expressed desire to vote

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Tbh I don't think anyone can answer the question of whether Ravenclawjedi42 was in e!/SK!Devo's wheelhouse except Devo, which is a bit... Problematic

 

#self meta, love to hear it hate to trust it. i think its still a fair shout to let her give her 2cs even if you may disagree.  meh

edit:

saw pool of <Wiz, TKN, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash>. i think ill  take aman/coffee out for today's vote personally to focus on ash/cash/wiz/tkn o7 (and ill make sure i look over neil too for you, im kinda familiar with his meta

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Aeoryi she/her]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fair. You're her most recent teammate, don't you have some idea? My sense is Ravenclaw passes, because you both played the same first MR and no one blinks about C1ing you or Ravenclaw anymore. 

I actually have a crack theory on why Raven died which would if true point to a very narrow slice of potential SK candidates. However none of that is relevant here as we need an Elim out

Uh lemme think

Devo argued against an Araris C1, since Araris was going to IM and GM the next games.

Ravenclawjedi42... Yeah we've played the same number of games. That is a good point.

Also just a general note elims have tells of who they're aligned with the SK simply doesn't. It will be really easy to tell if the SK gets NK'D because they'll live, but other than that we don't really need to solve for the SK. The elims are the focus.

I also don't think it's an Elim tactic to try and direct discussion onto SK, as it sort of flows there naturally, but it's something worth noting.

@neil the beguiled what does 2cs mean? 

[neil the beguiled]

sorry! 2cs= 2 cents , ie my own thoughts on the subject

edit:

side note, disagree wrt sk discussion as a general rule, but my basis of that tends to come from closed setups where theres no certainty there *is* a 3p where 3p discussions become more mafia indicative, but meh.

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Aeoryi she/her]

Okay thx

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Uh lemme think

Devo argued against an Araris C1, since Araris was going to IM and GM the next games.

Ravenclawjedi42... Yeah we've played the same number of games. That is a good point.

Also just a general note elims have tells of who they're aligned with the SK simply doesn't. It will be really easy to tell if the SK gets NK'D because they'll live, but other than that we don't really need to solve for the SK. The elims are the focus.

I also don't think it's an Elim tactic to try and direct discussion onto SK, as it sort of flows there naturally, but it's something worth noting.

@neil the beguiled what does 2cs mean? 

Yeah that's why I CBA. I think Raven NKA is more for completeness since strictly speaking it's not impossible they were reversed—I just don’t think it’s likely. But the crack theory amuses me.

EDIT: FWIW one reason I did it was to formally confirm for myself if it is impossible to make a coherent Elim team from a pool of Raven killers. That would be a nice result to get because it neatly differentiates the kills for us on a stronger basis. Sadly I don't think so.

EDIT2: Neil—unsure why you are looking in Ravenpool? If we think Raven is the SK kill, that's not necessarily where we want to be hunting. Similar thing about me & reaction to Raven kill. Just means I'm maybe less likely to be SK.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

Cash67 (The rich)

Will justify later

[neil the beguiled]

headinhands why did two people named raven have to die at once.  i think id still remove aman tbh for the claim (i think sk is the last person who makes that claim) but i got confuddled there,,

[Coffeecat she/her]

I somehow missed amanuensis' post?? 

I do like their reasoning actually, it does seem a bit more likely that they are a villager than Elim, however I don't see how claiming to be PR as an Elim is THAAAT dangerous, especially with how much work aman is putting into making it seem they are not actually Brandon. Yes they could actually be Brandon, but I don't think so. 

 

In other words, yes I'm leaning village, especially after what I heard about Amanuensis making bolder plays. Still I haven't discounted them being evil, or even SK.

Although it is likely I'm just misinterpreting what SK is, in my mind they are chaotic and want to cause as much disorder as possible, but I guess that might be wrong, idk I should work out the maths for who SK wants dead first, if they want to go for vill or Elim first.

 

Also could anyone point me to some information as to the acronyms? If there is any.

I'm just really lost with all the words like wrt or nka being thrown around 

[Aeoryi she/her]

21 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I somehow missed amanuensis' post?? 

I do like their reasoning actually, it does seem a bit more likely that they are a villager than Elim, however I don't see how claiming to be PR as an Elim is THAAAT dangerous, especially with how much work aman is putting into making it seem they are not actually Brandon. Yes they could actually be Brandon, but I don't think so. 

 

In other words, yes I'm leaning village, especially after what I heard about Amanuensis making bolder plays. Still I haven't discounted them being evil, or even SK.

Although it is likely I'm just misinterpreting what SK is, in my mind they are chaotic and want to cause as much disorder as possible, but I guess that might be wrong, idk I should work out the maths for who SK wants dead first, if they want to go for vill or Elim first.

 

Also could anyone point me to some information as to the acronyms? If there is any.

I'm just really lost with all the words like wrt or nka being thrown around 

It's in the lexicon (which is located in the rules and etiquette page)

If you point out a specific acronym I can probably help you

[neil the beguiled]

40 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I somehow missed amanuensis' post?? 

I do like their reasoning actually, it does seem a bit more likely that they are a villager than Elim, however I don't see how claiming to be PR as an Elim is THAAAT dangerous, especially with how much work aman is putting into making it seem they are not actually Brandon. Yes they could actually be Brandon, but I don't think so. 

 

In other words, yes I'm leaning village, especially after what I heard about Amanuensis making bolder plays. Still I haven't discounted them being evil, or even SK.

Although it is likely I'm just misinterpreting what SK is, in my mind they are chaotic and want to cause as much disorder as possible, but I guess that might be wrong, idk I should work out the maths for who SK wants dead first, if they want to go for vill or Elim first.

 

Also could anyone point me to some information as to the acronyms? If there is any.

I'm just really lost with all the words like wrt or nka being thrown around 

i wouldnt deny that sk probs wants to be somewhat suspicious, but i dont think a sk wants to bait a nk like that for wincon reasoning. and if aman is e anyways sk probs wouldnt fire there anyways because the uninformed evil perspective is that elims will take care of claims and strong towns, while the sk would want to take the sort of... second option, so to say. the sk doesnt want to kill someone whos a top town or claimed role, because thats the mafia's goal. instead theyre more viable to pick off middling towns who are just above poe (early game) and then flirt with shooting in poe later game if they feel otherwise at risk. its a delicate game of scumsiding and townsiding for sk to acchieve victory and its not exactly easy. theyre not gonna wanna risk a maf shot because they need to scumside sooner, and scumsiding means they need kills, and they need mafia not to risk one on them.

i could probably try and math this out a bit, but they probably dont start townsiding until just before a presumed cylo? which roughly means 2 more expected town kills minimum from a sk (but depending on how many mafia can be elimnated before then) 

also so sorry i love acronyms, feel free to ask me what i mean at any time (i dont bite^^) ik im also coming in with some like... newer or stranger ones bc im from out of site ;_;

wrt= with regard(s) to

nka = night kill analysis

vca = vote count analysis

edit:

i recently played a game with a bpv (bulletproof vest) sk where she mainly went after those sort of middling town slots and also ate a nk attempt (she got spewed town LOL). which is where im getting this idea from fwiw. idk what to reason with low info kills in the mix but thats my 2cs at least

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by neil the beguiled