Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Aman - I'm curious what your conclusions are?

So far, not much. They may have thought I would self-protect or get protection from my claim and avoided me / went for a Raven expecting them not to survive if I decided to protect outside of myself / the (fake) real Brandon decided to play along by guarding me. I think we’ll need at least one more kill before we can draw a semi-solid conclusion, though I’m still hoping to block it if I can. Also curious to see Ash’s Night Kill Analysis and considering returning my vote there after Araris’ response.

2 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

yeah no thats. fair. thats kinda what i wanted to do there anyways, but i dont get why you opt to shade me for it at the start of c2? can i have a readslist from you maybe? or a general wolrdview ig

To be fair, I said tinfoily when postulating that, which basically means an unfounded conspiracy theory. Shading you wasn’t my intention, but to just throw out a random idea for others to consider / challenge. That and I’m not explicitly Village reading you. ATM my view of your slot is: Meta Unknown, Friends with Stick (a very good player), Exudes Competence / Experience; which coalesces into “I hope this player is Village, but I’m not sure yet, so will continue to observe.”

As for others, I was kinda concerned about e!Kas during the first half of C1, but at a certain point his tone / effort convinced my subconscious to stop nagging me w/ doubts.

Devo is just a big question mark to me. Could maybe exe but would rather the SK handle her

Wiz the Raveness is confusing. Aeoryi the Resolute doubly so.

Araris and Ash are two slots I’d like to figure out ASAP, since my brain keeps rebounding to them whenever I try coaxing it to vote for someone.

My e!TKN paranoia is rising enough that I could probably add him to that list.

CoffeeCat is also confusing to me since I don’t know them well, but Kas’ reasoning for v!Cat makes sense to me, so they can live for now.

The rest… I forget. Maybe because they’ve not posted enough. Just remembered Alpha but he should be pinched soon.

My current world view could basically be summarized as “Kill anyone that’s not Kas or Brandon and pray”

Edited December 14, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

So far, not much. They may have thought I would self-protect or get protection from my claim and avoided me / went for a Raven expecting them not to survive if I decided to protect outside of myself / the (fake) real Brandon decided to play along by guarding me. I think we’ll need at least one more kill before we can draw a semi-solid conclusion, though I’m still hoping to block it if I can. Also curious to see Ash’s Night Kill Analysis and considering returning my vote there after Araris’ response.

To be fair, I said tinfoily when postulating that, which basically means an unfounded conspiracy theory. Shading you want my intention, but to just throw out a random idea for others to consider / challenge. That and I’m not explicitly Village reading you. ATM my view of your slot is: Meta Unknown, Friends with Stick (a very good player), Exudes Competence / Experience; which coalesces into “I hope this player is Village, but I’m not sure yet, so will continue to observe.

As for others, I was kinda concerned about e!Kas during the first half of C1, but at a certain point his tone / effort convinced my subconscious to stop nagging me w/ doubts.

Devo is just a big question mark to me. Could maybe exe but would rather the SK handle her

Wiz the Raveness is confusing. Aeoryi the Resolute doubly so.

Araris and Ash are two slots I’d like to figure out ASAP, since my brain keeps rebounding to them whenever I try coaxing it to vote for someone.

My e!TKN paranoia is rising enough that I could probably add him to that list.

CoffeeCat is also confusing to me but Kas’ reasoning for v!Cat makes sense to me, so they can live for more.

The rest… I forget. Maybe because they’ve not posted enough. Just remembered Alpha but he should be pinched soon.

My current world view could basically be summarized as “Kill anyone that’s not Kas or Brandon and pray”

My good sir, you are confusing 

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

My good sir, you are confusing 

*receives dagger to heart, whimpers, dies*

Edited December 14, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

*receives dagger to the heart, whimpers, dies*

Btw people are just going to herd the sides of the thin so don't expect that like lurcher claim to go any farther 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

Btw people are just going to herd the sides of the thin so don't expect that like lurcher claim to go any farther 

I think my autocorrect curse might have passed to you lol

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I think my autocorrect curse might have passed to you lol

"Herd the sides of the thin"

I meant thin the sides of the herd lol

[Amanuensis he/him]

Oh and The Bald Novel

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

"Herd the sides of the thin"

I meant thin the sides of the herd lol

So by people you mean the killers, and by sides of the herd you mean low-info targets unlikely to be protected?

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh and The Bald Novel

Any reasons?

Besides you know, being the #1 lurker of the month (which is probably enough to warrant a vote)

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Any reasons?

Besides you know, being the #1 lurker of the month (which is probably enough to warrant a vote)

He participated quite a bit C1 and has since vanished, so I’d like to encourage his presence and see if I can get a read of him from it. Plus I don’t think we’ve interacted yet

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh and The Bald Novel

So by people you mean the killers, and by sides of the herd you mean low-info targets unlikely to be protected?

Like if they suspect Aman might be the lurcher, or even has a slight chance over others to be the lurcher, they can assume the lurcher self-protects and they'll just ignore them, instead choosing someone they know the Lurcher won't target. Same with the SK. The elims don't want to hit the SK. It not only wastes a cycles of their time, but the SK doesn't even need to die. So if a player ends up surviving a kill, they'd probably take their chances elsewhere, even if they could hit the lurcher.

I'm pretty sure this describes a  highly conservative Elim team, but I can expect bits and pieces of that logic to be integrated into their NK decision.

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

He participated quite a bit C1 and has since vanished, so I’d like to encourage his presence and see if I can get a read of him from it. Plus I don’t think we’ve interacted yet

I just realized (again) that Cash is a returning player and it wouldn't be that kind to C2 lynch them.

Cash (the rich) TKN

I mean I could see a Devo/cash/TKN team with a side of ash or Araris but that's probably my brain wanting to make everything very convenient.

Maybe Araris/Wiz/Devo? Or Labyrinth/Araris/Devo? Hmmmm 

I think those last two are probably just e!pairs with Devo and just doesn't fit with Devo, but maybe just maybe I'm onto something

[neil the beguiled]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

To be fair, I said tinfoily when postulating that, which basically means an unfounded conspiracy theory. Shading you wasn’t my intention, but to just throw out a random idea for others to consider / challenge. That and I’m not explicitly Village reading you. ATM my view of your slot is: Meta Unknown, Friends with Stick (a very good player), Exudes Competence / Experience; which coalesces into “I hope this player is Village, but I’m not sure yet, so will continue to observe.”

ah thats. thats fair ig, though i didnt really like it coming from... well, someone else who vote the same? especially saying that you would do that *as* killer. im glad you think i exude competance LMAO im feeling a lot more unsure of myself after jedi's flip. fwiw i'm like... nowhere near stick's level of gameplay. thats not to say that im bad at the game, but i get really tunneled into worldviews that make it hard for me to flip off of, and as wolf i get like. physically ill LOL. but self meta and all that.

hmmm, im trying to compile a list of ppl who im considering atm or think are probably worth to see votes on; i think in general im fine keeping kas town, i think you're fine off the claim?, cookie i lt from their push there, and in general think aeoryi is probably okay...? i honestly think i could subscribe to sk!aeoryi but i dont get the feeling that shes an elim? 

devo up in the air, minimum dont think she killed raven of MO info, probs not main target today

this leaves a batch of: wiz, bald, arasis, jnv, alpha, ash, cash

do you want to talk to me about wiz and TKN?

also wdym pinched?

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Like if they suspect Aman might be the lurcher, or even has a slight chance over others to be the lurcher, they can assume the lurcher self-protects and they'll just ignore them, instead choosing someone they know the Lurcher won't target. Same with the SK. The elims don't want to hit the SK. It not only wastes a cycles of their time, but the SK doesn't even need to die. So if a player ends up surviving a kill, they'd probably take their chances elsewhere, even if they could hit the lurcher.

I'm pretty sure this describes a  highly conservative Elim team, but I can expect bits and pieces of that logic to be integrated into their NK decision.

I just realized (again) that Cash is a returning player and it wouldn't be that kind to C2 lynch them.

Cash (the rich) TKN

I mean I could see a Devo/cash/TKN team with a side of ash or Araris but that's probably my brain wanting to make everything very convenient.

Maybe Araris/Wiz/Devo? Or Labyrinth/Araris/Devo? Hmmmm 

I think those last two are probably just e!pairs with Devo and just doesn't fit with Devo, but maybe just maybe I'm onto something

That’s a fair point, which brings me to my next gambit. Not only am I claiming Brandon, but I’m swearing to never self-protect again to make this even more fun. Either the elims can test how honest I am tonight, or risk me blocking the player they do choose. I’m not going to put the order in until the last hour either, and may use a combination of logic, counterlogic, and RNG to select the lucky contestant.

TBH this post, particularly you attempting to form teams, does push me toward leaning v for you  at least for this cycle
 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

....towncore anyone?

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

That’s a fair point, which brings new to my next gambit. Not only am I claiming Brandon, but I’m swearing to never self-protect again to make this even more fun. Either the elims can test how honest I am tonight, or risk me blocking the player they do choose. I’m not going to put the order in until the last hour either, and may use a combination of logic, counterlogic, and RNG to select the lucky contestant.

TBH this post, particularly you attempting to form teams, does push me toward leaning v for you  at least for this cycle
 

 

May the Lucky coin guide you to the right path

Alvron was the coin guy, right?

Just now, neil the beguiled said:

....towncore anyone?

What does the first word mean?

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

do you want to talk to me about wiz and TKN?

also wdym pinched?

I could try looking through ISOs for them and see if there’s a tangible case beyond Wiz’s vibes and TKN’s absence this cycle.

Shorthand for pinch-hit that I just invented because I was too lazy to use a hyphen lol

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I could try looking through ISOs for them and see if there’s a tangible case beyond Wiz’s vibes and TKN’s absence this cycle.

Shorthand for pinch-hit that I just invented because I was too lazy to use a hyphen lol

(A Pinch-hitter is basically like a substitute on MU)

Edited December 15, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute

[neil the beguiled]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

May the Lucky coin guide you to the right path

Alvron was the coin guy, right?

What does the first word mean?

uhh towncoring is the proccess of building a towncore that you think has no wolves in it and voting outside of it- ie take the people you have strongest belief are town and work together through the rest. typically theres a goal of building enough town to "lock" the game (ie a towncore thats pure and large that you can comfortably vote outside it and risk miselims). its kinda like basic poe taken to the next level?

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I could try looking through ISOs for them and see if there’s a tangible case beyond Wiz’s vibes and TKN’s absence this cycle.

Shorthand for pinch-hit that I just invented because I was too lazy to hyphen lol

...pinchhit...?

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

(A Pinch-hitter is basically like a substitute on MU)

AH. RIGHT THANKS

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

...pinchhit...?

AH. RIGHT THANKS

Oh right. I forgot that’s not a common term, despite its origins from sports (I think Baseball?)

12 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

this leaves a batch of: wiz, bald, arasis, jnv, alpha, ash, cash

do you want to talk to me about wiz and TKN?

Oh and of this list, why did you pick out Wiz and TKN versus another combination like Araris and Ash?

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh right. I forgot that’s not a common term, despite its origins from sports (I think Baseball?)

you think i know about sports? (i played soccer xD which. uses subs ironically)

edit:

surprisingly, this eel has legs.

Edited December 15, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

you think i know about sports? (i played soccer xD which. uses subs ironically)

I know next to nothing about sports too, so probably just assumed anything I knew was base knowledge lol

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

surprisingly, this eel has legs.

I didn’t know Sandile evolved from eels

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[neil the beguiled]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I know next to nothing about sports either, so probably just assumed anything I knew was base knowledge lol

meh fair enough. never rlly been much of a baseball guy though. i liked running though. as much as anybody could like running, which is never in the moment and always after that.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, neil the beguiled said:

meh fair enough. never rlly been much of a baseball guy though. i liked running though. as much as anybody could like running, which is never in the moment and always after that.

I’m also a runner and can empathize immensely!

Btw did you happen to see this question?

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

17 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

this leaves a batch of: wiz, bald, arasis, jnv, alpha, ash, cash

do you want to talk to me about wiz and TKN?

Oh and of this list, why did you pick out Wiz and TKN versus another combination like Araris and Ash?

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, neil the beguiled said:

uhh towncoring is the proccess of building a towncore that you think has no wolves in it and voting outside of it- ie take the people you have strongest belief are town and work together through the rest. typically theres a goal of building enough town to "lock" the game (ie a towncore thats pure and large that you can comfortably vote outside it and risk miselims). its kinda like basic poe taken to the next level?

...pinchhit...?

AH. RIGHT THANKS

Hmmm

I'm curious to know where the SK will shoot. I assume elims will try to kill confirmed (or high) village players (i.e Kas) and the SK for others. I could see the SK doing a fearkill since they need to survive, but other than that, the same logic with the elims and failed NK's also applies here.

If the SK goes for inactives/less actives then they'll have a higher chance of killing a non protected target. They might also go for their own Elim suspects, since the ideal SK situation to win is 

2v 1n 1e 

Where there three kills are successful and the neutral doesn't get killed and so as this the SK might want to consider being more of a vig role than a true SK

But yeah why am I obsessing over the SK the SK is not the goal the SK doesn't matter (until it does)

Oh yeah. Right. You root out the wolves.

Hm. The problem is, we have essentially three clumps of players:

The active (Kas, myself, Neil, etc)

The strange (Wiz, Araris, Devo...)

And the Inactives (Labyrinth, JNV...)

And so it's going to be hard to make a really solid core out of that

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh right. I forgot that’s not a common term, despite its origins from sports (I think Baseball?)

I always thought of LG92 where it had the PH role but huh I guess it is from baseball

2 minutes ago, neil the beguiled said:

you think i know about sports? (i played soccer xD which. uses subs ironically)

edit:

surprisingly, this eel has legs.

Yeah football uses subs

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh right. I forgot that’s not a common term, despite its origins from sports (I think Baseball?)

Yeah that one's my fault. SE took the wording from me. I got it from fandom writing exchanges where it's a very common term.

@Amanuensis tbh the fact you spent most of C1 thinking I was E is to me improvement on my part considering how badly LG84 ended for both of us.

FWIW, Aman is the only player I could see claiming BS as BS work for. I did want to note that. He made the most kill interceptions in LG92 which I GMed. Fifth and I were rather disturbed. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah that one's my fault. SE took the wording from me. I got it from fandom writing exchanges where it's a very common term.

@Amanuensis tbh the fact you spent most of C1 thinking I was E is to me improvement on my part considering how badly LG84 ended for both of us.

FWIW, Aman is the only player I could see claiming BS as BS work for. I did want to note that. He made the most kill interceptions in LG92 which I GMed. Fifth and I were rather disturbed. 

Goalkeepers lol

EDIT: 

Likewise, I would probably be the least likely to do a lurcher claim in thread after the surplus of success that I had last time 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute