Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Brandon, Kas
Neil, Aeoyri
Wizard, Araris, TKN, Ash, Devo
JNV, Coffee, Cash, Alpha

Probably Village, Sorta Seems Village, The Danger Zone, Just Kinda Here I Guess.

My only sensible goals from here on are to:

1. Either strengthen or diminish my Neil and Aeo credences based on their content going forward and any potential findings. Not currently concerned.
2. Move players in the current danger zone either up or down based on future interactions and how they respond to pressure. These are my active concerns.
3. Encourage the JKHIGs to participate more so I can either place them in SSV or TDZ. These are my passive concerns.

IDK why I did this post like this but I had fun with it ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I might have to steal the idea as I like it too

Kinda just lurking and keeping up with the thread, don't have as much time tonight but I kinda wanna make a SE pyramid

[Aeoryi she/her]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

  Reveal hidden contents

I'm calling it now. SK!Aeo. She's performing a series of brutal killings on me and y'all are just watching it

(j/k Aeo)

Iron Age fits in many senses. Fire and blood. 

@Amanuensis Tbh I'm rethinking JNV. Is there a reason you've pitched them below null at this point?

Yeah. Back in those days, SE started on a night turn. There was a chance you could die before the game even started. 

 

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

1 TDZ + 2 JKHIGs feels off.

Why so?

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I didn't get a chance to interact with them in thread C1 and don't remember much about their posts, so will have to do a reread / ISO, or cross paths with them soon, to start forming a read

Fair. I'd normally use their meta as a reference point but the fact they've got finals is sort of fuzzing it IMO.

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why so?

Ravenclaw Both Ravens (forgot about the SK for a moment) were essentially in the same category, feels like it would be giving too much exposure to the rest, but I concede the elim who made the decision could not have thought about it that way.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Aeoryi she/her]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Ravenclaw essentially was in the same category, feels like it would be giving too much exposure to the rest, but I concede the elim who made the decision could not have thought about it that way.

I have an insane Elim tactic that cannot be named in thread for it throws many forms of analysis out the window.

 

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

• Either strengthen or diminish my Neil and Aeo credences based on their content going forward and any potential findings. Not currently concerned.

You forgot to add Kas

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

You forgot to add Kas

Honestly you're on my SK list

[Aeoryi she/her]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly you're on my SK list

Nah, everyone knows archer was the SK

[Kasimir he/him]

47 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly you're on my SK list

To be honest, yeah, you got me there, but everyone knows I play neutral like Village and it's pretty sick to play knowing you can meme on the Elims and there's nothing they can do about it >:) 

Edited to add:

54 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ravenclaw Both Ravens (forgot about the SK for a moment) were essentially in the same category, feels like it would be giving too much exposure to the rest, but I concede the elim who made the decision could not have thought about it that way.

Also fair IMO. Minimally the least intuitive option anyway.

Edited to add 2:

Yeah apologies the analysis isn't going well. Brain is still mostly a wall of exhausted sleepfog but I'm hoping to get a nap over lunch to become functional enough to finish it.

I guess I'll just lay it out instead of alluding to it - wrist troubles have gotten a bit worse due to jarring the injury multiple times and I'm not doing too well on the painkillers front among other things so I have been doing without and just racking up insane sleep debt. Caffeine helps but again, a lot of times, it's currently like thinking through mud. I just keep redoing the same lines of analysis and feeling like an idiot because my thoughts are moving at glacial speed. I don't want to blue text this, as it's not stopping me from playing, just functioning at 30%. Hope to be able to get back into the game properly by next cycle. Going to take my own advice about accepting my personal limitations even if I hate them. Don't let this stop you from sussing me if you want to tbh.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Oh dear Wall post here I come. All questions will be answered, even if most of those questions were in the last two pages. Probably should collapse the quotes as you get to them, not taking the time to snip them as I am pulling a Kas rn.

11 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Yeah I'm not intentionally lurking. Been at work since 6:30 am and have been peeping whenever I have a minute, so I don't need to read everything on break and end up not being able to post.

Which is where we are now. I'm on break so will respond.

I don't mind the vote ftr, good to have wagon variety this early to feel things out.

Anyway there's four worlds in which I claim brandon:

World One, Reasonablaman: claims Brandon to protect the actual PR and play IKYK games with the elims/SK. Rather than let them just shoot whoever on C1, I'd want to put them in a position to have to call my bluff or ignore me, which gives us data points based on who they go for after the fact.

World Two, Brandaman: pretty much the same as World One except more risky, as I'm banking on the elims assuming I'm a Reasonable SEer or the SK just trying to waste their time.

World Three, Ballisticaman. I'm the SK that just wants to mess with the elims because I tend to be a v!sided neutral, given I have more fun solving than deceiving.

World Four, Kayanaman: is evil and just messing with the village cause I can. As Kas pointed out tho, I'd feel too much responsibility for my team to make such a risky play that early.

All of these are within my player meta but I would rank those more-to-less likely in descending order, personally.

World Five, Ba'alzaman: has made a sick cosplay.

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Is there a reason you're making this assessment but the opposite of Archer?

Edited to add:

The perfect is the enemy of the good. I still haven't finished my SoD analysis for the full kill analysis but I think Raven can be done pretty off-the-cuff as there was no realistic world in which Raven would've come under vote pressure C1.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Let's take out our flips first.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Neither I nor Devo would do this. It's negotiable that I might under very limited circumstances but there's nothing like that in this game.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

JNV would not either. They consider killing new and returning players mean. It's possible JNV didn't recall Raven was new, but given they played in both of Raven's games, that's less likely I think. They also saw my snarky profile of Raven in Archer's QF, which included this classic line:

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

I don't know Aeo's kill MO enough. I could see a world in which Aeo kills Raven but I don't feel Aeo is a friendthreatkill type. And I think given Aeo's apparent reaction to Ash being exed, it's safe to say Aeo probably wouldn't gank Raven this early/this way.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Here's where it gets tricky.

Theoretically, Araris shouldn't do it either. I think, however, that Araris tends to be more mindful of returning players than he is of new players - I had to expressly warn him about Wit in MR66 though I was also wrong about Wit. It was a concern Araris did however find pertinent. However, Raven was N1ed in Araris's game and Araris would've been aware that was Raven's first game. I think in general I lean against Raven being an Araris kill.

Starting pool: <Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Ravenclaw, Kas, JNV, Devo, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

From here, I have to say unfortunately I think this pool must be preserved as a strict pool. There are ways to try to narrow it further, but must be marked as being more epistemically risky than the previous.

Current pool: <Wiz, TKN, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash>

Coffee, Neil, and Cash IMO are obvious people who have to be left in. Coffee largely played before the 'don't C1 new/returning players' deal became a strong social norm and neither Neil nor Cash would be aware of this either.

I think Aman would be sensitive to the norm under normal circumstances. What I'm not sure about is how much attention a busy Aman might pay to it, and he's been busy enough he might be unaware of Raven's circumstances. However, that being said, I think he might give Raven a chance. Not sure. Italicise Aman.

Ash and TKN have both been busy. They might not know about Raven. I sort of think Ash/TKN would check though, if unsure. Maybe italicise them as well.

I don't know if Wiz knows. I think Wiz should in theory, also, care. Italicise.

In theory, Labyrinth/Alpha should be really busy and might have just submitted a kill really fast. Or could be so busy it's unlikely he'd kill, but I sort of doubt that. I don't think there's a decisive case either way.

Current pool: <Wiz, TKN, Labyrinth/Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash>

Final pool. Sorry it's not as small as it could be.

Can't say I would check, but I was aware of their situation coming into this game. I also don't really do low infos, well, I'll follow along with a teammate's low-info, but don't like to do so myself. Like I think you say in a later post, I like control kills and if it was up to me, Araris or Aman or Stick would be dead right now. Or, now that I think about it, Aeoryi because you've shown an unwillingness to exe her, and she's rather unpredictably good sometimes. 

6 hours ago, Coffeecat said:

I somehow missed amanuensis' post?? 

I do like their reasoning actually, it does seem a bit more likely that they are a villager than Elim, however I don't see how claiming to be PR as an Elim is THAAAT dangerous, especially with how much work aman is putting into making it seem they are not actually Brandon. Yes they could actually be Brandon, but I don't think so. 

 

In other words, yes I'm leaning village, especially after what I heard about Amanuensis making bolder plays. Still I haven't discounted them being evil, or even SK.

Although it is likely I'm just misinterpreting what SK is, in my mind they are chaotic and want to cause as much disorder as possible, but I guess that might be wrong, idk I should work out the maths for who SK wants dead first, if they want to go for vill or Elim first.

 

Also could anyone point me to some information as to the acronyms? If there is any.

I'm just really lost with all the words like wrt or nka being thrown around 

Honestly, SKs are best played either deep in the shadows or glowing with angelic light. Power-SKing is definitely the better way, but not everyone has the bandwidth. If you can't powerwolf, you should probably try to fly under the radar. 

5 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Any reasons?

Besides you know, being the #1 lurker of the month (which is probably enough to warrant a vote)

Not anything I can do about that. Like several others here, reading time is fairly frequent, posting time isn’t, and even when it is, you guys talk too much.

5 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

....towncore anyone?

plz no

Though on a serious note, towncores are fairly infrequent in PMless games here, mostly because they don't tend to be very fun for the villagers outside, let alone the elims. 

5 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Hmmm

I'm curious to know where the SK will shoot. I assume elims will try to kill confirmed (or high) village players (i.e Kas) and the SK for others. I could see the SK doing a fearkill since they need to survive, but other than that, the same logic with the elims and failed NK's also applies here.

If the SK goes for inactives/less actives then they'll have a higher chance of killing a non protected target. They might also go for their own Elim suspects, since the ideal SK situation to win is 

2v 1n 1e 

Where there three kills are successful and the neutral doesn't get killed and so as this the SK might want to consider being more of a vig role than a true SK

But yeah why am I obsessing over the SK the SK is not the goal the SK doesn't matter (until it does)

Oh yeah. Right. You root out the wolves.

Hm. The problem is, we have essentially three clumps of players:

The active (Kas, myself, Neil, etc)

The strange (Wiz, Araris, Devo...)

And the Inactives (Labyrinth, JNV...)

And so it's going to be hard to make a really solid core out of that

I always thought of LG92 where it had the PH role but huh I guess it is from baseball

Yeah football uses subs

Yeah, football does use subs. I'll take Neil's word on it that soccer does too. 

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm fully expecting TKN to kill me this cycle tbh.

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

For the love of Sanderson can u pls self-protect kthx

I'll gladly die for u bro

Sorry, slightly more filled out response now that I'm no longer pecking it out on a mobile while dodging traffic.

The thing for Coffee IMO is that given their profile, I can see that coming from V!them (they're exactly the kind of profile that struggles, therefore might overhedge in an overly-honest reflection of paranoia/failure to prioritise/reflection of deep personal uncertainty) or I can see that coming from E!them which I think is your concern here wrt Coffee's oversignalling of a hedge, i.e. refusal to commit/desire to keep options open and return to you.

The result is a wash to me - I still liked the energy with which they came at you, it's been a Long Time since I played with or GMed Coffee and (note to self to cross-reference with the spreadsheet) so dated meta is always a bit ??? For one, I can say that in most of the games (MR43, QF6), Coffee didn't do analysis. Like even the thing you got was more than I got out of Coffee those games. The German stuff was a lot of 'no u' but there's context I don't want to get into including the fact that E!Coffee got scanned that cycle but cleverly used my code to tell their teammates who the scanner was, so maybe don't underestimate? /shrug

I have some scratchy memories of MR42 because I didn't play it but Orlok did, but remember Coffee playing a bit more conventionally. Might dig up but doesn't feel as important as finalising the vote analysis/NKA of Ravenclaw (more important one) if I can.

I'm more bearish on TKN than Neil is, I'm afraid. Formally-speaking a null, but I have some suspicions, and generally am allergic to TKN ever feeling so comfortable he can completely disappear from the radar if I don't have a V lean of him. That being said, the C3 rule is solid IMO - if you don't see something that looks V to you (emphasis, ignore Neil here) by C3, set him on fire. I absolutely believe that for SE standards, TKN starts performing after C3 so I'd take that as the cut-off point. Sometimes you can read him before that and that's why I asked him the questions I did, but don't feel confident, sadly.

I'll once again confirm the c3 rule, it works and it's true. Not really disappearing out of choice though. I'll get to that in a bit, but suffice it to say, if you want to talk to me before Sunday, 6ish MT tomorrow and around then is probably the time to do it.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

The feeling is mutual tho

@Ookla the Bald what’s up homie

Busy day, had to help my grandparents with their new house, couldn't be on my phone. Otherwise, just a little busy with wrestling. I might respond to stuff for a little bit after this post, but then I'm sleeping for a few hours. Then I've got a bus ride that I could potentially be active on. After that, very sporadic primarily reading activity. Or, as some >.> might call it, lurking.

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The problem is that I don't actually recall them from anything more recent than MR43, but I'm currently reading QF49 as they theoretically appear there but I'm on C2 and haven't seen a single post from them. Let me see if I can share the filter... Ok evidently not.

I think you should just use the spreadsheet, filter in the Data tab under Players for Lord_Silberfarben, and then pick a more recent game you find relevant. QF49 is their last and they apparently actually played LG71 which might mean Aman has played them before, just zero recall.

Edited to add:

Yeah don't check out QF49 it's no good. I'd advise avoiding MR43 too - I recall they hard RPed, got one or two posts off, and then died, so I don't think there's anything there.

Edited to add 2:

Hey Elims no need to finish me tonight

Aeo already did  

Old. U =

[Kasimir he/him]

@Ookla the Bald What's your read of the NKs? All the best with your RL.

Also, second question. How do you feel about Aman's ? on you at the moment?

Edited to add:

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Old. U =

There's a reason Araris and I are the grouchy old guys playing from the porch of the SE retirement home

Edited to add 2:

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Can't say I would check, but I was aware of their situation coming into this game. I also don't really do low infos, well, I'll follow along with a teammate's low-info, but don't like to do so myself. Like I think you say in a later post, I like control kills and if it was up to me, Araris or Aman or Stick would be dead right now. Or, now that I think about it, Aeoryi because you've shown an unwillingness to exe her, and she's rather unpredictably good sometimes. 

I agree with your natural meta being control kills - mine is as well, as Mat knows very well  I find it amusing that E!me and E!Mat have prioritised each other for kills, but yeah. What's holding me back off a more natural crossout is QF64 where you deliberately suppressed your kill meta as you were making the calls for your team. Granted, you had an incentive to find Winzik and to murder your way through the Inner Circle, but you were severely tempted to shoot me.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Bald What's your read of the NKs? All the best with your RL.

Let me check the player list. 

I think Raven (new Raven that's been nked a lot) is pretty likely to be the SK kill. As for SK identity due to that kill choice, prob Wiz, Aeo, CC/Silber, Neil, and Cash. Putting Wiz and Cash lesser options because I have the least credences, Aeo as being slightly less credible cause I feel like it, Silber is protected. Remind me, Cash is newish or returning, right? A couple games in?

And thanks, I might need it.

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Also, second question. How do you feel about Aman's ? on you at the moment?

Is he one of the ones voting me? Is that what you mean? Pretty much /shrug if that's what you're talking about. If not, please clarify I'll try to get you a better answer.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

agree with your natural meta being control kills - mine is as well, as Mat knows very well  I find it amusing that E!me and E!Mat have prioritised each other for kills, but yeah. What's holding me back off a more natural crossout is QF64 where you deliberately suppressed your kill meta as you were making the calls for your team. Granted, you had an incentive to find Winzik and to murder your way through the Inner Circle, but you were severely tempted to shoot me.

If Mat were playing, he probably would have been included in that list of people that I would have liked to kill. 

I'm not sure that can be used as really any indication of my kill meta capabilities. I came into that game with a clear and very specific goal to kill every inner council member, and I forced myself to hold true. Without the sort of required pressure added by the IC, I doubt I would make kills like that. I don't normally suppress my kill meta consciously, I tend to just let my teammate choose and only control kill when I think it's necessary. 

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Remind me, Cash is newish or returning, right? A couple games in?

Uh, a weird hybrid of both as Cash's last game was LG91.

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Is he one of the ones voting me? Is that what you mean? Pretty much /shrug if that's what you're talking about. If not, please clarify I'll try to get you a better answer.

AFAICT yes. I'm asking largely because you have a constant awareness/self-perception (one that isn't wrong IMO) about how you tend to be pushed by Elims because you are a soft target, especially pre-C3. I'm curious about whether you feel whether that's in effect or not. Sometimes you bring it up, sometimes you don't. If so/not why. That sort of thing.

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I'm not sure that can be used as really any indication of my kill meta capabilities. I came into that game with a clear and very specific goal to kill every inner council member, and I forced myself to hold true. Without the sort of required pressure added by the IC, I doubt I would make kills like that. I don't normally suppress my kill meta consciously, I tend to just let my teammate choose and only control kill when I think it's necessary. 

Yeah exactly, but that's a kind of soft suppression, is what I'm getting at - just that you can't be excluded comfortably from this list. I guess you could say there's a sort of elision here between 'could exist on a team with' and 'would kill', yeah, which Ash would probably yell at me for not being more attentive to and which I should be careful of.

Edited to add:

Additional bonus question for the floor. Do people think that Neil's constantly confusing who died is a good look, a show, or NAI?

Edited to add 2:

Actually apologies - @Ookla the Bald if you have time/seen this: specifically, could I ask for your view on the Ravenclaw NK beyond the entailment it's likely an E!kill?

Edited to add 3:

@Amanuensis / @Ookla the Resolute

I went through a bunch of Coffeecat games so y'all don't have to, with the caveat that it's dated meta. Standing by my assessment I do like Coffee's entrance into this cycle a bit better this time, have flagged a few posts of interest across Coffee's games as points of reference. Probably more for Aman but think Aeo just skipped it. FWIW Aman, my view is treat these like 'if you need them/are rethinking Coffee' sort of deal.

MR43: V!Coffee's reaction to suspicion/generating own suspicions

(Functionally suspects everyone who votes him.)

LG71: E!Coffee defending against suspicion

Two noteworthy points: overselfconscious in response to pressure:

"and i realize this message sounds like an elim flaunting their weak alibi, but that is just what i do."

and a slight touch of 'Wrong Formula' Elim response ("you can't use X to say I'm Elim!")

MR42: E!Coffee activity

Asks for vc and an update. 

Slight hedgy when trying to push xino - possible hesitance on pushing V?

Will note as it's worth KIVing that Coffee aggressively pushed for SK death over his own in a slightly similar set-up. 10/10 worth reading though, *wipes tear from eye* Mat and TJ were so pure. They grow up so fast.

More seriously, I'm hoping some of these samples give an idea of where Coffee might've been at, even if they're not recent recent. I am tentatively willing to stand by my slightly positive read - it's more proactive than their V games, but also more proactive than their E games. I guess I just saved these as a hedge because I just don't feel the positives are at this point strong enough to swamp what I absolutely agree with Aman are things I'd normally take as red flags in a certain player profile.

H'okay. Armed with the power of the nap, let's try to power on through...

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

41 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Uh, a weird hybrid of both as Cash's last game was LG91

Hmmm. I might be willing to vote Cash then. We'll see how I feel tomorrow, cause I'm not sure about the distro decision of putting an SK in his hands. Would appreciate you weighing in on that.

Also, I keep remembering then forgetting so I'll say it now. You asked me what I thought about the SK earlier, and upon thinking about it basically all day, I've got a slightly controversial answer. I'm not sure exactly how the player counts work out, but exing the SK will reduce the amount of deaths (specifically village deaths) greatly. This, combined with the fact that vote analysis will be very helpful for finding the eims later rather than earlier, suggests to me that perhaps it might be better to kill the SK earlier if given the choice. I feel that the elims will reveal themselves more later than the SK will. But on the other hand, SK is a very difficult alignment to win with and doesn't count for wincons, so we could get away with ignoring them a bit.

I also slightly doubt the value of these discussions and think we should just be exing whoever is least likely to be vil. 

49 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah exactly, but that's a kind of soft suppression, is what I'm getting at - just that you can't be excluded comfortably from this list. I guess you could say there's a sort of elision here between 'could exist on a team with' and 'would kill', yeah, which Ash would probably yell at me for not being more attentive to and which I should be careful of.

I suppose I was conflating your kill analysis a bit with Ash's, who very explicitly us only looking for the person who made the decision to make the kill rather than just who would let it slide. I think that's what this paragraph is getting at but I think I'm losing my reading comprehension rn.

51 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Additional bonus question for the floor. Do people think that Neil's constantly confusing who died is a good look, a show, or NAI?

Quite understandable since I've been doing it a ton. I doubt it's a show, Ookla season isn't much easier for beginners than it is for the rest of us.

52 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Actually apologies - @Ookla the Bald if you have time/seen this: specifically, could I ask for your view on the Ravenclaw NK beyond the entailment it's likely an E!kill?

Not sure exactly. Think it's probably a pretty basic low info kill, which means by definition there's not much I can get from it, maybe check with me again tomorrow, cause I'm definitely getting tired beyond the point of usefulness.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Hmmm. I might be willing to vote Cash then. We'll see how I feel tomorrow, cause I'm not sure about the distro decision of putting an SK in his hands. Would appreciate you weighing in on that.

I think it's possible. But it's just really hard to say. I think if we open up the GM's own meta, that's a whole separate can of worms. But I'm drawn back to the fact of the Raven kill. I think it's pretty indicative that something's askew somewhere.

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I also slightly doubt the value of these discussions and think we should just be exing whoever is least likely to be vil. 

I'd sort of agree with this, caveated. I can say a little more explicitly now that part of why I directed the question at you and asked most people to stay off is I think you tend to produce more readable content when asked mech/strat questions early on than necessarily, reads. This is something I had in my head from Archer's QF where Mat and I both read you C1 on the basis of discussion of locked voting and wanted to see if it was applicable in this game. Sort of like your answer, I will say at least.

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

I suppose I was conflating your kill analysis a bit with Ash's, who very explicitly us only looking for the person who made the decision to make the kill rather than just who would let it slide. I think that's what this paragraph is getting at but I think I'm losing my reading comprehension rn.

Probably get some good rest man. And yeah, it's a bit of a conflation but I think Ash's is the correct way to go so I shouldn't make that slip.

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Not sure exactly. Think it's probably a pretty basic low info kill, which means by definition there's not much I can get from it, maybe check with me again tomorrow, cause I'm definitely getting tired beyond the point of usefulness.

Rest well, thanks!

[neil the beguiled]

i was gonna sleep but i wantedto get this thought out but the one thing that i keep kinda revolving around wrt aeoryi is the uncanny progression with sheeping shees been doing. i nmoted it first with her response and play around JVN after kas talked about him c1, but also devo as well c2 here. the thing about sheeping is that its an easy way to not take credit for an elimination, miselim or otherwise, which looks worse in the context of a voted town, but if aeoryi sheeped onto an elim it'd be a better look for her because of that lack of cred grab? which then brings my thoughts back to aeoryi's self vote eoc1, which... i dunno, gambits aside its probably more v!indicative of anything else, unless you would specificallyu know to have elim teammates to make sure you dont go over? but i struggle to see aeoryi teamed with quite a few ppl (kas,devo,wiz all come to mind tho im sure im mmissing a few others)

which is kind of all to say i think aeryi is probably town after i work myself through all of it, even if i do think theres some suspect behaviour its relatively nai in consideration?

 

[Kasimir he/him]

@Ookla the Destined

Did you factor in Ravenclaw's retraction on Archer and shift to Devo? I've been looking for more from them but can't seem to find a revote. Could doublecheck Tallybot but it needs to be set up because Ookla season again. 

This vote:

Have noticed all tallies seem to be off as a result and no one has so far commented on this which is ???

[Coffeecat she/her]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

cleverly used my code to tell their teammates who the scanner was, so maybe don't underestimate? /shrug

Man I was smart

If I only remembered any of the games so I could draw from my experience. I really do not even remember the German stuff although that's something I would do, my recommendation is treat me like a new player who has played other forum Mafia games in the past.

10 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I don’t know if it’s the four “for nows” in the second paragraph of this post, but for some reason it’s ringing my alarm bells. 

;-;-;-;-;-; what

Who wrote that paragraph it couldn't have been me. I guess for now I'm gonna go cry for now.

 

 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'd sort of agree with this, caveated. I can say a little more explicitly now that part of why I directed the question at you and asked most people to stay off is I think you tend to produce more readable content when asked mech/strat questions early on than necessarily, reads. This is something I had in my head from Archer's QF where Mat and I both read you C1 on the basis of discussion of locked voting and wanted to see if it was applicable in this game. Sort of like your answer, I will say at least.

That's very fair, and I kinda figured that's what you were doing. I just was working through it in my head, then was like 'but none of this matters, village beggars can't be choosers.'

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I think it's possible. But it's just really hard to say. I think if we open up the GM's own meta, that's a whole separate can of worms. But I'm drawn back to the fact of the Raven kill. I think it's pretty indicative that something's askew somewhere.

Yeah, can't really play too much with distro meta, but it's there in the back of my mind. 

Definitely agree, something's off. I'm leaning towards Neil being more of a candidate upon sleeping, though Cash is still up top I think.

[Kasimir he/him]

44 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

If I only remembered any of the games so I could draw from my experience. I really do not even remember the German stuff although that's something I would do, my recommendation is treat me like a new player who has played other forum Mafia games in the past.

FWIW I'm fine with that - I think the main reason I'd advocate a meta-read here is to keep from exeing you for doing things that are just you being you rather than Evil. I think Elims are perfectly findable using normal methods. Something I see as a significant value proposition of meta as I said is really there as a stop-gap to stop punishing players for idiosyncracies.

29 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Definitely agree, something's off. I'm leaning towards Neil being more of a candidate upon sleeping, though Cash is still up top I think.

Why so?

46 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Who wrote that paragraph it couldn't have been me. I guess for now I'm gonna go cry for now.

This one is ringing half the alarm bells the last one did!  

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hi all

I… I don’t even know. I’m done with the semester in like 10 hours then flying home, but I’m still not done done and… well, trying to focus on the last assignment + not being able to = bad timezone based math.

Hopefully once I’m done I can focus on this. If I can’t, I don’t know. Might try and get a pinch hitter if that happens but who knows.

(Unless I’m getting exed or something because I’m not really checking, wouldn’t be the first time.)

[Kasimir he/him]

59 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Hi all

I… I don’t even know. I’m done with the semester in like 10 hours then flying home, but I’m still not done done and… well, trying to focus on the last assignment + not being able to = bad timezone based math.

Hopefully once I’m done I can focus on this. If I can’t, I don’t know. Might try and get a pinch hitter if that happens but who knows.

(Unless I’m getting exed or something because I’m not really checking, wouldn’t be the first time.)

Fair my dude, RL first

Side-thing I wanted to hop on:

• Devo is the only one who noticed. Neither Wiz, Neil, nor Aman seem to realise that there is a tie. Likely not teamed.
• With Devo noticing and Mat not noticing, I'm considering if this increases V!Devo odds - I'd feel this'd be amplified in an Elim doc.

On 12/14/2023 at 7:12 AM, Ookla the Destined said:

Vote Count:

• Archer/Paradigm (4): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle, TheRavenHasLanded/Ravens, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Archer/Paradigm
• Ravenclawjedi42 (2): neil the beguiled, Amanuensis

As posted this cycle, this is the vc.

By right, corrected for Ravenclaw's vote, which I have checked and confirmed has not budged from Devo, the result is actually:

Quote

Archer (3): Araris, Raven, Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman

Which means we should've had a RNG throw. I'm going to just @Elandera here as well to save Mat any time of @ing here. I think there are intuitive and simple ways to resolve this situation, but don't want to put my thumb on the scales as a player and I'm sure Mat and Elan are more than thoroughly equipped to handle this. (Also @Ookla the Destined )

I think I'm going to recode Tallybot to be able to do automated vote tallies. But it's not on top of my list of things to do, as RL and time stuff. I'll see to doing it if I'm still around next cycle, as I should have a bit more time to do it then. I want to look at the mess that was EoD. The error in the vc means I've got to do two layers of checking for the perceived reality players might've been responding to and the actual votestate.

Edited to add:

Aeo doesn't notice either. Not teamed with Devo ig? God I'm just building this set of thoughts out of utter fricking crack aren't I.

Edited to add 2:

Araris doesn't seem to notice this either. I'm now having to ask myself if it's possible the Elims absolutely did not even realise either.

On 12/14/2023 at 10:19 AM, Winnie the Pookla said:

And bonus food for thought: Why do the elims kill someone voting for Archer in the first place? If one of the Archer votes is elim, that narrows a POE. If the elims wanted a low-info kill, plenty of folks didn't vote.

Not...teamed...with...Devo...I...guess...? >>

Who the f is teamed with Devo even at this point we all legit just went with the damn Ravenclaw crack

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Fair my dude, RL first

Side-thing I wanted to hop on:

• Devo is the only one who noticed. Neither Wiz, Neil, nor Aman seem to realise that there is a tie. Likely not teamed.
• With Devo noticing and Mat not noticing, I'm considering if this increases V!Devo odds - I'd feel this'd be amplified in an Elim doc.

As posted this cycle, this is the vc.

By right, corrected for Ravenclaw's vote, which I have checked and confirmed has not budged from Devo, the result is actually:

Which means we should've had a RNG throw. I'm going to just @Elandera here as well to save Mat any time of @ing here. I think there are intuitive and simple ways to resolve this situation, but don't want to put my thumb on the scales as a player and I'm sure Mat and Elan are more than thoroughly equipped to handle this. (Also @Ookla the Destined )

I think I'm going to recode Tallybot to be able to do automated vote tallies. But it's not on top of my list of things to do, as RL and time stuff. I'll see to doing it if I'm still around next cycle, as I should have a bit more time to do it then. I want to look at the mess that was EoD. The error in the vc means I've got to do two layers of checking for the perceived reality players might've been responding to and the actual votestate.

Edited to add:

Aeo doesn't notice either. Not teamed with Devo ig? God I'm just building this set of thoughts out of utter fricking crack aren't I.

Edited to add 2:

Araris doesn't seem to notice this either. I'm now having to ask myself if it's possible the Elims absolutely did not even realise either.

Not...teamed...with...Devo...I...guess...? >>

Who the f is teamed with Devo even at this point we all legit just went with the damn Ravenclaw crack

Wait huh...that is weird, I've usually noticed when I'm keeping a VC which I wasn't this time. Weird, cuz I thought I was breaking the tie onto Archer, not making one.

[Kasimir he/him]

Day One

1. Game Notes: Observations

Treat these things as just stream-of-consciousness: I'm noting down things I don't necessarily want to forget, even if I think that they might not make sense. They're just 'thoughts as they occur to me while backreading.'

Spoiler

-Neil does open the SK discussion a little. Aeo is the one who notices that both Neil and I don't understand the SK rules.

-Is this natural?

On 12/12/2023 at 10:45 AM, neil the beguiled said:

okay wait i rlly need to read then-  kriller on my homesite needs to be within the final 2 alive and can't joint win idt . holdup-

-Aeo insisting the SK should claim as their wincon is impossible has some negative vibes. Personal?

-On further reflection, I think I like this first post from Devo. I reserve the right to flip on Devo more times than a prata because in the very same sentence, I remember LG97.

-Actually this seems weirder to me.

On 12/12/2023 at 11:39 PM, Ookla the Paradigm said:

That confused me for a while too, but I think it's based on them hard-assuming that my convention game wincon is to claim serial killer. I think it's still a stretch to assign a read based on that, but it's also a bad assumption to make and I think villagers are more prone to those. 

Why would this be the natural assumption? Devo's claimed convention game goal is to say the words 'cohesion and tension' or vice versa three times. Mine was to do that annoying bold pattern thing. Aman's was to be hungry ig. That's a whole different species of game relevant from post something that could reasonably taken as an actual claim. That's Mat making a player do something, which as Devo pointed out, is risky, has game-implications, etc for convention game points - why would that make any sense?

I see Archer's point (?) about Elims probably not making the assumption you'd have to claim SK for a convention goal as they know more convention goals, but just from a game design perspective, if it's optional and for bonus points, surely it shouldn't have game impact, that's just not a natural assumption (?)

Congratulations I guess I have prata-flipped back again to sussing Devo ._.

-I feel less ??? about JNV now. I don't know if it's because I'm tired but reading their posts has stopped screaming at me even as I can't let go of the nagging feeling someone has killed and replaced my Quokka Buddy  

-Literally just said it and JNV's reads feel off again. I...don't know how to play SE anymore, do I. Maybe I should just stop looking at meta and go back to votes until I stabilise.

-I'll note I can see this post coming from both V and E Araris. Araris sometimes digs in because he believes the less suspicious route is to stay put. But this post always draws my attention because it feels tonally strong coming from Araris, and Araris is almost never this insistent. This is what makes me wonder if it's E!Araris getting pulled into some meta-dispute.

-I'm considering the extent to which the Ravenclaw kill is meant to make Neil look bad yeah. I agree It's Complicated and there are other alternatives, I'm just passing the post where he pushes Ravenclaw hard - not unfairly IMO but also not taking into account Ravenclaw's profile...yeah yeah I can hear Stick yelling at me about purity reads, back off sis I was totally right this time okay  (Ngl I kind of like that push. Wondering if an Elim would make that push since Archer explicitly defends Ravenclaw off the reaction test.)

-I like this JNV who is apparently STINK on stilts. The glorious amount of sass coming from my god, Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims is wonderful and I'm here for it.

On 12/13/2023 at 9:34 AM, JNV said:

I dont know why you feel the need to preface your list of player metas with how youre not trying to bring up player metas like youve been talking about metas for the last few pages you dont need to hide from it

-I don't know how to feel about Wiz CCing. I have QF68 in mind where I think he was pretty on the ball but want a comparator as it can feel pretty performative. [NOTE TO SELF: check if have energy.]

-I dropped a note in my GM PM about this thing from Aeo as it raised my hackles but I also stood by what I said: I felt it wasn't healthy to push at this point because I'd just be knowingly tripping her pressure response all over again and she needed sleep more than anything else.

On 12/13/2023 at 4:39 PM, Ookla the Resolute said:

Idk I just get very irritable as Elim. EDIT: and in general

The pressure is real when you know it will be a close game

Asked myself if that's supposed to be an SK slip.

-In retrospect, having just come off reading some of Coffee's games, I do remember this behaviour pattern showing up in his E games. I still kind of want to say deliberately offering a response to Aman looks good. Maybe just bracket in my head to cross-reference as well. [NOTE TO SELF: check if this shows up in V games.]

On 12/13/2023 at 11:03 PM, Coffeecat said:

Oh dear I hope no one thinks I'm suspicious because of my shyness...

Oh dear there it is. Look I think it's too early to tell who is what, and also I don't know anyone here. There have been a few weird things going on, and I think it's best to wait before I form an opinion.

and

On 12/13/2023 at 11:10 PM, Coffeecat said:

I'm serious about not forming an opinion this early, I can't be active enough to read every single wall of text, I will wait for more things to happen before I vote, while trying to keep up.

(Removed this from his spoiler text.)

-I'm at my analysis post and I want to try color-coding based off the flips atm.

On 12/14/2023 at 1:04 AM, Kasimir said:

Something Screwy: Neil
Ignore: Aman, Ash, Wiz, Raven, TKN, Cash
Not Again: Kas
Indifference: JNV
V Lean: Neil, Devo
Noisy: Aeo
Scepticism: Aeo, Ravenclaw
Vote: Araris, Ravenclaw
Did Not See: Coffeecat (Silber), Alpha, Cash

Personal thoughts: Scepticism feels pure. Unsure about implications for Vote.

-Wiz is curiously invested in staying alive. I usually have to suppress immediate suspicion when I see that because I always feel a Villager should be willing to die for the Village.

IDR him as a player who particularly is excited about staying alive so it's a ??? for me.

-Genuinely wondering if this post triggered the Raven kill. Again, requires player unfamiliar with Raven who was online at that time.

-Has anyone asked Aeo why near to EoD her preferred CWs to Ash were Archer or Devo?

-Why does Neil ask Aman and Raven to vote in particular?

-Noting that everyone appears to be going off a wrong vc including Mat which missed a vote from Ravenclaw on about p7 or so - Ravenclaw shifted from Archer to Devo. This is annoying to me as this means I'll have to do actual vc and perceived vc analysis, but also, there are questions here about Devo's alignment especially since Ravenclaw died IMO. (Connection there? Not sure - NKA is very rare on SE and I'd imagine E!Neil would be told that by teammates.) The fact Mat hasn't caught it up to this point sort of makes me lean just a tad V on Devo - I think E!Devo would be less careless about it and an E!team is more likely to spot the vote, since Ravenclaw doubled up on mine, which would've set off alarm bells.

-Ah, soddit, if I'm still alive next cycle, I'll set up Tallybot to crosscheck for everyone. I CBA to regex unless it's going to have a payoff.

2. Vote Analysis [RAW]

Again, personal working. Don't open unless you want to drown. This won't be cleaned up, this is for my own benefit.

Spoiler

Aeo shows up after Archer and self-votes. Sort of like the look of it - no crems given ig.

Neil helps Aeo out with the self-voting. Interesting that Aeo doesn't panic there given she usually overreacts to any bit of pressure. Real exciting bit when Araris stabvotes Archer for crimes against ceral, and a quick follow-up from Ravenclaw.

Quote

Aeo (2): Aeo, Neo
Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw

Possibly reflective of personal discomfort with being tied in the lead, Aeo unvotes and votes Wiz.

Quote

Aeo (1): Neo
Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Wiz (1): Aeo

Wiz welcome votes Neil. They grow up so fast...

In true Stick fashion, I boldly slap a welcome back vote onto Aman as well

Quote

Aeo (1): Neil
Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Wiz (1): Aeo
Neil (1): Wiz
Aman (1): Kas

The votes take a while to shift from there. The next one comes from me as I feel Devo is leaning V on Archer a bit too quickly/cleanly. I vote Devo.

Quote

Aeo (1): Neil
Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Wiz (1): Aeo
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Kas

Aeo votes Archer, putting Archer in the lead. Still ??? about this if she was theorising BS!Archer.

Quote

Aeo (1): Neil
Archer (3): Araris, Ravenclaw, Aeo
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Kas

TKN's reward for that masterclass in sarcasm is to be voted on by Archer. Could this be any more sad?

Quote

Aeo (1): Neil
Archer (3): Araris, Ravenclaw, Aeo
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Kas
TKN (1): Archer

Aeo votes Ravenclaw for... ??? No idea. I kind of want to look at what happens around Ravenclaw here. I see what either Aman/Neil means, I just want to keep the first layer in mind before opening further layers on the gambit kueh lapis. Ravenclaw feels like ML bait to me because their posts just looked so wishy-washy that I think if you're not versed in their LG98 meta and even I was confused in the end, you really could have set them up easy, or made the people pushing them look bad.

Quote

Aeo (1): Neil
Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Kas
TKN (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (1): Aeo

Aeo now votes Araris. I am so sad she doesn't vote Mat in that hbd post  YOU HAD ONE JOB, AEO!

Quote

Aeo (1): Neil
Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Kas
TKN (1): Archer
Araris (1): Aeo

Anyway Neil unvotes Aeo.

Quote

Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Kas
TKN (1): Archer
Araris (1): Aeo

Ravenclaw swaps under pressure to Devo. I'll note that Ravenclaw saying we don't know Archer's alignment does feel like a ??? moment and it feels good that Aeo noticed and went for the kill.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (2): Kas, Ravenclaw
TKN (1): Archer
Araris (1): Aeo

Aman votes Ash. Lots of vote diversity at this juncture, FWIW.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (2): Kas, Ravenclaw
TKN (1): Archer
Araris (1): Aeo
Ash (1): Aman

Archer swaps from TKN to Wiz. Disagree with Archer about Araris doubling down btw - it felt harder than I usually see from Araris, for want of a better word.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (2): Kas, Ravenclaw
Araris (1): Aeo
Ash (1): Aman
Wiz (1): Archer

I vote JNV. FWIW I'm now back to V!JNV. Woohoo! Kas flips more than prata! We now have an extremely distributed vote.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Araris (1): Aeo
Ash (1): Aman
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (1): Kas

Mat posts a vc that misses Ravenclaw's swap to Devo. 

Aeo doubles onto JNV. Not sure why, eh about the sheep. I was very vehement that I didn't feel I had a coherent way to express the case.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (1): Aman
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (2): Kas, Aeo

Cash votes Aeo for franticness. Sort of get what he means.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (1): Aman
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (2): Kas, Aeo
Aeo (1): Cash

Wiz doubles on Ash. Potential saving vote if JNV/Wiz. Feels CC.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (2): Kas, Aeo
Aeo (1): Cash

Aeo decides to Aeo again. Noteworthy this decision precedes questioning on Ash. I want to understand this and also don't at the same time. Nietzsche and the Abyss come to mind.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (2): Cash, Aeo

Aeo lobbying people off Ash doesn't feel very SK. But Aeo is gonna Aeo. Not really working from an E!Aeo theory here either. But it does raise the obvious question.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (2): Cash, Aeo

Archer sheeps Aeo. Mat...still hasn't noticed that Ravenclaw is on Devo ngl.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Archer

Archer then swaps back to Wiz, creating a tie.

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (2): Cash, Aeo
Wiz (1): Archer

Neil votes Ravenclaw. Considering if this was vote dilution but:

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (2): Cash, Aeo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (1): Neil

Okay so there's something really interesting going on here. In the same post Neil votes Ravenclaw, he quotes Mat's vc and says that he doesn't like the distribution. This is what he's looking at:

On 12/14/2023 at 5:09 AM, Ookla the Destined said:

Just under two hours remaining!

• Archer/Paradigm (2): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle
• Ashbringer (2): Amanuensis, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Archer/Paradigm

The problem being that Ravenclaw's vote is...not on Archer anymore! No one has noticed it's been on Devo since forever ago! (Which means that there's...even more work for me to do >>)

Factoring in the changes, Neil would've had in mind something like this:

Quote

Archer (2): Araris, Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (2): Cash, Aeo
Wiz (1): Archer

Which explains why he's so concerned about RNG and ties. He reaches out to Aman and Raven to ask if they'd be into averting a tie. Assume it's because they were online then but want to ask. ( @neil the beguiled?)

Raven impulse-votes Archer.

Quote

Archer (2): Araris, Raven
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (2): Cash, Aeo
Wiz (1): Archer

Which means we have an actual tie.

Oh, now that's interesting. Devo does note this. Devo and Neil aren't teamed.

She says:

On 12/14/2023 at 6:38 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Well that's making it a tied vote. I could vote Aeoryi or RavenJedi, but since I won't be around for the rest of the cycle it makes more sense for Aeoryi.

Quote

Archer (2): Araris, Raven
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (2): Aman, Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (1): Neil

Archer presumably definitely non-starter for Devo. Interested in why Ash is not. Devo doesn't want to increase the tie, which is interesting as I've seen her forcing a tie before to see who breaks it. @Devotary of Spontaneity, what's your train of thought here?

Neil calls for a switch to Ravenclaw. Ah, good ol' flashwagon summoning. It doesn't really work.

Noting here that Ash doesn't care to vote. To be fair, he's had bad experiences with sudden uninformed EoD voting blowing up in his face before  I don't feel it's too AI, but probably not teamed with Aeo.

Aman does switch to Ravenclaw.

Quote

Archer (2): Araris, Raven
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (1): Wiz
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman

Aeo still in the lead.

And Wiz makes a last minute swap to Archer, which...creates a tie. And presumably Wiz isn't aware he's creating a tie as he makes no mention of it. Not teamed with Devo either? Considering a Wiz/Aeo team I guess.

Quote

Archer (3): Araris, Raven, Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman

So I guess we're houseruling that Archer lost the RNG throw?

3. Vote Analysis [Thoughts and Credences]

Spoiler

This is the raw edition, as a comparator.

Quote

Archer (3): Araris, Raven, Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman

These are based off one second aggaration credences.

Quote

Archer (3): Araris, Raven, Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

I...ach, I hate this and part of my brain really just wants Wiz to die rn for this which is probably me belatedly synching with the Wiz voters earlier. God I'm like the sloth in Zootopia. Okay. The thing is that these credences are really raw and maybe I should be less aggressive about them. But suppose I work with this set for now. I'd want to look at <Cash, Wiz/Araris, Coffee> as my primary set, I think, with a side of <Alpha, Ash> because being Evil dgaf about whether you have RL or not.

I need to work out more stable credences. Put that on my list.

Additional thoughts:

-My general impressions of the cycle was that voting was fairly stable and distributed for the most part, with consolidation coming very late. See:

Quote

Archer (1): Araris
Neil (1): Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
Ash (1): Aman
Wiz (1): Archer
JNV (2): Kas, Aeo
Aeo (1): Cash

This is the VC from when Cash votes Aeo for being frantic. At this point:

It's just under five hours to EoD. This means for most of the cycle, there just wasn't much of a sense of urgency or so around the voting. The first player to break this is Wiz, who doubles onto Ash, following Aman.

(Ngl I'm considering if I'm being too harsh on Wiz because there's nothing so much I hate as last second paranoia decisions on utter crack theories, and this is coming from the guy who saw Gamma do that crap. Yeah yeah I know, SE lineages are utter bull, but I'm aware I'm Gamma's lineage to the bone and it's a me problem too so I should be more understanding but I'm really not.)

To me, much of the EoD flurry comes from: <Aman, Neil, Raven, Wiz, Devo.>

Ash is present but declines to vote - he's not endangered, however. Does indicate he probably dgaf about Aeo.

Aeo's ability to be absent I think is what Neil was considering - FWIW Neil, I think you'd need to KIV I wasn't present for EoD and usually can't be too close to EoD as it's 7AM for me when asking about Aeo self-voting for cred as her wagon absolutely could gain votes, meaning she needed a teammate, e.g. Wiz, Aman on at EoD to manage the situation. Can't be Devo given where Devo voted, and the fact Devo voted specifically to tiebreak against her.

Contrary to my quick impressions, the Ravenclaw train is very late, with Neil voting over half an hour to EoD and Aman voting at twelve minutes to EoD. In that regard, while Aman has the crack theory Neil killed the player he voted for and I think Neil might have the same theory, I want to bracket that for now as a higher layer on the paranoia kueh lapis I don't want to touch.

So we have to ask: was Ravenclaw killed qua Archer voter or qua Devo voter? Or did the Elims just not care?

Anyway, backtracing as I'm not doing NKA here right now. The fact that most of the EoD flurry comes from players who look more or less Village to me suggests I think low E investment in the trains.

Quote

Archer (3): Araris, Raven, Wiz
Devo (1): Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

If we go with Mat's count, we get:

Quote

Archer (4): Araris, Raven, Wiz, Ravenclaw
JNV (1): Kas
Aeo (3): Cash, Aeo, Devo
Wiz (1): Archer
Ravenclaw (2): Neil, Aman
No Vote (5): Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN

Which I think still points to substantive comfort with the Aeo train (only real competitor.) So yeah, I would take this to suggest no real Elim was under threat C1.

4. Night Kill Analysis: Ravenclaw Edition

Spoiler

Now, I'm going to throw out Raven and focus on Ravenclaw, which is the kill we're really interested in. Araris suggests Ravenclaw as a kill suggests more non-voting Elims, as he doesn't think the Elims flip most of the train. Which...yes and no. In theory that's true, but there have been odd things with train purity before. I'm not sure I find that necessarily convincing.

We have to do two versions. One plays it straight, the other looks into the possibility the Elims were actually quiet about Ravenclaw having voted for Devo, but were working off that reality.

A. Elims Killed Ravenclaw Qua Archer Voter

I think this is the most likely world, contra Araris. Reasons spelled out below. Due to the stability of the trains and votes in general, I don't particularly think this was a response to the sudden Ravenclaw train (dating from around half an hour to EoD), which might imply the Elims weren't on at EoD, since Ravenclaw was otherwise MLable.

Let's start with our formal pool all over again: <Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Remove the dead first, as we've had no red flips.

<Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Removing TKN for noise kill doctrine. I'm never personally a low info kill person. Since we're doing this Ash-style, let's take me out too.

<Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

By definition, this world has to exclude Devo, because Devo was singularly aware of who Ravenclaw was voting for.

<Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

I want to remove Aman but I don't know enough about his kill doctrine. I agree he'd go for me pretty early on, but it also worked out pretty badly for him in LG94. Would he go low info kill then? IDK. Yeah sorry guys this is why I'm a poor substitute for Ash  (Who is busy, I get it.)

Official final pool: <Wiz, Araris, Aeo, JNV, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

If we're playing direct kueh lapis rather than indirect, it's less likely that Neil and Aman would kill Ravenclaw due to sussing Ravenclaw and Neil wanting a Ravenclaw CW. Agreed with Aman it could be a play, let's bracket that for the moment and use italics to demarcate the uncertainty here just to see if we can whittle the pool a little more.

<Wiz, Araris, Aeo, JNV, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Suppose further than Ravenclaw killers weren't aware Ravenclaw was actually potentially a viable ML. This entails no EoD presence.

<Wiz, Araris, Aeo, JNV, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

This is as far as I can go, and I'll note these two sets of assumptions must already be marked as assumptions.

B. Elims Killed Ravenclaw Qua Devo Voter

Prefacing this that I think this is a much less likely world - I think if the Elims were cognisant of targeting Ravenclaw qua Devo voter, this situation with Mat's vc would not have arisen in the first place.

Let's start with our formal pool all over again: <Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Remove the dead first, as we've had no red flips.

<Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Let's exclude everyone who clearly articulated or demonstrated confusion about the issue. First one out is Wiz, as Wiz clearly articulated his Archer vote as killing Archer, not creating a tie. Then, we have Araris, who probably would've benefited from correcting everyone theorising about him killing on-train by pointing out Ravenclaw was actually on Devo. We can remove Aeo, who thought there was a tie because she thought Archer was voting for her.

Removing me because damnit this is my analysis I won't stand for this here. 

Neil and Aman are similarly gone because they both assumed there was a tie prior to the shifts.

<Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

Removing TKN - he's a control/noise kill guy.

<Raven, Wiz, TKN, Archer, Araris, Aeo, Kas, JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Neil, Aman, Ash, Cash.>

I think this pool unfortunately can't really be narrowed down further. So: <JNV, Devo, Alpha, Coffee, Ash, Cash> as our pool of potential Ravenclaw killers. As pointed out, Ravenclaw has played exactly the same amount of games as Aeo, so cannot be considered (by JNV or Devo) to be a new player and thus protected.

I'm very sorry to be so late, as it were, to get fully contemporary. RL side has been rough for me. However, here I am at last, and as they say, better Nate than lever.

I'm not inclined to do this for every cycle, mind. Pareto principle/best effort basis.

I will add however that my main takeaways have been several questions:

• @Ookla the Raveness - I'd like to hear more about this crack Archer/Aeo E/E theory that had you leaping to kill Archer. Moreover, if this was such a bad theory, what's your view about the fact you think your Araris theory now feels the same?
• @Devotary of Spontaneity - Any reason for not going for Ash instead? Is there a reason you didn't want to leave it to a tie to see who'd break it, as you sometimes like to do?
• @Ookla the Rich - Apologies if I missed a post while backreading. What's your take on Aeo now?
• @neil the beguiled - Why approach Raven and Aman specifically?
• @Amanuensis - Any idea who else was on at EoD?
• @Ookla the Resolute - If you've answered and I've missed this, my bad: why were your preferred CWs at EoD Archer and Devo?

I have reads to finalise/do but I'll do them later as this post is already terribly long. My apologies to Orlok for being exkasperated with you. I think I understand your pain now.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Kasimir
Highlight for ease of reading

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

55 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Ookla the Raveness - I'd like to hear more about this crack Archer/Aeo E/E theory that had you leaping to kill Archer. Moreover, if this was such a bad theory, what's your view about the fact you think your Araris theory now feels the same?

Well Archer switched back to me from Aeo, saying that he wouldn't be back to switch his vote which to me felt like an elim teammate pulling back before the wagon killed his teammate.

And how Cash avoided Araris completely felt like he's teamed with Araris...and it’s probably crazy but I also haven't had time to reread and revise. I hope I will later because I don’t want to do to Araris what I did to Archer. Idk how effective it will be but I hope it points me more solidily in one direction.

Also I haven't has time to read your whole post, just the question as I'm rather busy right now.