Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Archer he/him]

I didn’t get a SK counter-claim, but I think this has run its course. Obviously it was a lie (sorry, TKN. Should have made me hold an iron horseshoe). Reaction recap, loosely ordered from n>v>e!:

-Ashbringer: no comment.

-JNV: no comment.

-Raveness: no comment.

I couldn’t have made my claim more unmissable, but Ash and JNV fit the profile of people who did. Curious why Raveness didn’t comment on it. E!me would feel compelled to respond to the test, even knowing it was a test, so my instinctive read for ignoring it is village.

-Araris: stab votes me for claiming SK.

-Kas: calls it a NAI reaction test

These reactions are within their metas. It was very funny watching Kas try not to ruin the test but then commenting on it anyway. Araris’ is less organic, but it’s NAI for him.

-Neil: village read for “joking”.

The innocent new guy play is to believe the SK claim, not disbelieve it and ascribe a village read for it. Caveated by them being known by fellow players. 

-Ookla the Past Participle: Playing both sides, I’m either neutral or I’m evil.

Technically, this is the most scummy response. But it also reads as genuinely indecisive, and that overrides my suspicion.

-Devo: village read based on assumed fakeclaim because of convention game

They pinged my gut last night. I had to read between the lines to figure out what Devo was thinking. But I’ve decided that that’s a villagey look for them because e!they is intentional enough with their wording to avoid misunderstandings. An unforced error from e!they would be surprising, as would a weird take on a straightforward test.

-Ookla the Bald: believes neutral claim

Really?

-Ookla the Resolute: Doesn’t believe it for a second. You can tell because they ask Raveness what their neutral tell is, Raveness if they’re the SK.

My working theory was they’re the real SK (chaos = neutral). Refusal to engage with and believe my claim followed by obsession with the topic points that way. That theory can hold the vote on me as being neutral pettiness (if you’re going to vote someone, vote the guy claiming your job). Otherwise it’s a weird (opportunistic) turn that I'm inclined to suspect. 

 

My theorized elim reaction was that they wouldn’t 1/ believe my claim AND 2/ advocate for my death. No sense killing off your first-half ally. I don’t think enough people took me seriously for that to come into play. If I were to call people out for being cautious, Kas, Devo, and the no comments tripped that wire.

Ookla the Bald

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

25 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

You could've asked that on our doc so that proves youra sk

Huh? I could have also just asked in my GM PM instead of the thread amd gotten an answer. 

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How exactly by the way do you expect an Elim to WGG in a game without PMs?

I don't

Like I said it was a kayana world

[Aeoryi she/her]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

I didn’t get a SK counter-claim, but I think this has run its course. Obviously it was a lie (sorry, TKN. Should have made me hold an iron horseshoe). Reaction recap, loosely ordered from n>v>e!:

-Ashbringer: no comment.

-JNV: no comment.

-Raveness: no comment.

I couldn’t have made my claim more unmissable, but Ash and JNV fit the profile of people who did. Curious why Raveness didn’t comment on it. E!me would feel compelled to respond to the test, even knowing it was a test, so my instinctive read for ignoring it is village.

-Araris: stab votes me for claiming SK.

-Kas: calls it a NAI reaction test

These reactions are within their metas. It was very funny watching Kas try not to ruin the test but then commenting on it anyway. Araris’ is less organic, but it’s NAI for him.

-Neil: village read for “joking”.

The innocent new guy play is to believe the SK claim, not disbelieve it and ascribe a village read for it. Caveated by them being known by fellow players. 

-Ookla the Past Participle: Playing both sides, I’m either neutral or I’m evil.

Technically, this is the most scummy response. But it also reads as genuinely indecisive, and that overrides my suspicion.

-Devo: village read based on assumed fakeclaim because of convention game

They pinged my gut last night. I had to read between the lines to figure out what Devo was thinking. But I’ve decided that that’s a villagey look for them because e!they is intentional enough with their wording to avoid misunderstandings. An unforced error from e!they would be surprising, as would a weird take on a straightforward test.

-Ookla the Bald: believes neutral claim

Really?

-Ookla the Resolute: Doesn’t believe it for a second. You can tell because they ask Raveness what their neutral tell is, Raveness if they’re the SK.

My working theory was they’re the real SK (chaos = neutral). Refusal to engage with and believe my claim followed by obsession with the topic points that way. That theory can hold the vote on me as being neutral pettiness (if you’re going to vote someone, vote the guy claiming your job). Otherwise it’s a weird (opportunistic) turn that I'm inclined to suspect. 

 

My theorized elim reaction was that they wouldn’t 1/ believe my claim AND 2/ advocate for my death. No sense killing off your first-half ally. I don’t think enough people took me seriously for that to come into play. If I were to call people out for being cautious, Kas, Devo, and the no comments tripped that wire.

Ookla the Bald

Why would n!aeo make a train vote on you if your my current cover?

Idk

I'm also pretty sure I didn't realize you claimed neutral until after I logged off the shard, In which my thought process was:

1. Archer is claiming neutral? Wait what?

2. Why would the SK claim neutral? That's just a recipe for disaster, and you've just made it impossible to win.

3. Why would an Elim claim neutral? It just gets them voted out eventually and gives them attention and a watch on them. It's not a position you want to be in as an Elim.

4. They must be a villager. But in what world does v! archer claim? It's just bad for the village overall

5. They must be the Sanderson, trying to hide behind the protection of the neutral being non-parity.

That's why I didn't want to explain this in thread. I didn't want to put a potential v! Sanderson!you in thread.

Also, if I was the SK.. *rubs hands*

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

Huh? I could have also just asked in my GM PM instead of the thread amd gotten an answer. 

I don't

Like I said it was a kayana world

Lemme go ask mat who is the Sanderson for a moment

...

That didn't work 

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

It was very funny watching Kas try not to ruin the test but then commenting on it anyway.

I TRIED OKAY I TRIED

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

i have been immediately been written off lol. you know what, i appreciate that. 

 

 

Raven ran sprints. god, this is stressful. think, think, think, we could fix this... but how? we need to get rid of the crazy people. like, make them go away.. because they are scary. but i also dont wanna end someone's experience too early- that would be mean. dammit, i cant- i hate this. 

He slows down, then walks to cool down. "Look, i- this is too much, im not sure if this should be done, because if we are wrong it would be devastating."

[Cash67]

Cash wanders the halls, overwhelmed by the fact he is here at the convention. He was also overwhelmed by the fact that he misread the start time…. Arriving 18 hours late was not a good look. He was already late, so he thought “Let’s grab some food before showing up”. 
 

Yeah I have no reads so far.  I’m gonna let this play out for the next few hours before voting. 

[Archer he/him]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

 

Lemme go ask mat who is the Sanderson for a moment

If it's not Ookla the Bald, I'm going to riot 

How did you miss me claiming neutral, I did it IN ALL CAPS

1 minute ago, Ookla the Rich said:

Cash wanders the halls, overwhelmed by the fact he is here at the convention. He was also overwhelmed by the fact that he misread the start time…. Arriving 18 hours late was not a good look. He was already late, so he thought “Let’s grab some food before showing up”. 
 

Yeah I have no reads so far.  I’m gonna let this play out for the next few hours before voting. 

"A platypus?"

[Cash67]

Just now, Ookla the Paradigm said:

If it's not Ookla the Bald, I'm going to riot 

How did you miss me claiming neutral, I did it IN ALL CAPS

"A platypus?"

*puts on a fedora*

[Archer he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Rich said:

*puts on a fedora*

"PLAYER who's a platypus!" 

[Aeoryi she/her]

Welcome to tunneling with Aeoryi! Today's subject of stretch logic and poor reasoning is Archer/Ookla the Paradigm!

I'm inclined to believe archer, but also I feel like e!/n!archer could do something like this. 

Example:

WGG Gambit from last LG (LG98b) - there was literally no reason to do it except to claim self-protect lurcher and damn me with the "One of the Lurchers is Lying Lynch them both" so like ...

And e!archer has claimed fake roles:

Examples:

LG92- claimed "Rules ignorer" which supposedly could be immune to all night actions if they asked about the rules in thread during the day. Actual: "Gambit god" which made them role-block all night actions targeting them.

MR56- Claimed "Medium" which could ask 3 true or false questions to any dead player and had a one-oof revival. Actual: "Incinerator" which could surpress alignment flips for either NKs or Lynches

- -

But what has Archer done this game?

1. Made an (im0) obscure neutral claim that didn't make sense when backwards logicked

2. Expected more people to interact with that claim.

INTERMISSION:

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

If it's not Ookla the Bald, I'm going to riot 

How did you miss me claiming neutral, I did it IN ALL CAPS

"A platypus?"

You said you were a cereal killer, not a Serial killer, last I checked, and I noted it, but passed it off as it was probably a joke.

3. But also acknowledged that the claim wasn't very good. So yeah.

Verdict: Yeah he's probably village

Archer

Ravenclawjedi42 

I'm going to go look at them probably eventually expect that at some point

 

@Ookla the Rich I see u viewing the page

I think cash has played a game before? (Ash's honorblade game) I'll go check after this gimme a sec

 

EDIT:

Here's where he claimed I think:

17 hours ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Trying to give yourself a nickname? :P. Hi, I'm Archer, by the way. The Ookla thing is temporary. 

 

"It's true! I murdered a box of corn flakes today. I am a cereal killer!" 

^^^

You expect people to believe this clear-cut claim

Edited December 12, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute
Now it's archer who's gonna get NK'd anyways

[Kasimir he/him]

29 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Technically, this is the most scummy response. But it also reads as genuinely indecisive, and that overrides my suspicion.

I'd note here that Ravenclaw's E!meta (cf. LG98a v. LG98b) tends to be pretty placatory/deferring to majority opinion. I think Ravenclaw sticking to a pretty different position here is a good look for them.

30 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

The innocent new guy play is to believe the SK claim, not disbelieve it and ascribe a village read for it. Caveated by them being known by fellow players. 

Plays on MU and a bunch of other fora. Really wouldn't take FNG as his baseline here.

31 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

They pinged my gut last night. I had to read between the lines to figure out what Devo was thinking. But I’ve decided that that’s a villagey look for them because e!they is intentional enough with their wording to avoid misunderstandings. An unforced error from e!they would be surprising, as would a weird take on a straightforward test.

Disagree with this one, but it's why I voted Devo and referenced to a prong of a theory. Feel Devo is over-credencing and feel that emerges from potential TMI. Part of it I admit is that it feels way more clean than my own thought process: I kept going back and forth trying to work out if you were E or V. The V call here feels like it has less fog-of-war than it should. I agree there's LG84 where I also sussed/tunnelled Devo for it, but there, Devo and I both had clean non-fog-of-war inferences, and that's not my experience here.

31 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

E!me would feel compelled to respond to the test, even knowing it was a test

I wonder, honestly. I feel the lesson Aman taught was that the correct response is to bury yourself in the crowd or be a late responder - kneejerks are just bad for Elims.

32 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Really?

Was TKN not being sarcastic? It read pretty sarcastic to me.

[Aeoryi she/her]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'd note here that Ravenclaw's E!meta (cf. LG98a v. LG98b) tends to be pretty placatory/deferring to majority opinion. I think Ravenclaw sticking to a pretty different position here is a good look for them.

Plays on MU and a bunch of other fora. Really wouldn't take FNG as his baseline here.

Disagree with this one, but it's why I voted Devo and referenced to a prong of a theory. Feel Devo is over-credencing and feel that emerges from potential TMI. Part of it I admit is that it feels way more clean than my own thought process: I kept going back and forth trying to work out if you were E or V. The V call here feels like it has less fog-of-war than it should. I agree there's LG84 where I also sussed/tunnelled Devo for it, but there, Devo and I both had clean non-fog-of-war inferences, and that's not my experience here.

I wonder, honestly. I feel the lesson Aman taught was that the correct response is to bury yourself in the crowd or be a late responder - kneejerks are just bad for Elims.

Was TKN not being sarcastic? It read pretty sarcastic to me.

Devo is pretty crafty when Elim I wouldn't expect them to TMI themselves that easily but I agree that the logic comes from a place where there are not a one digit number of dimensional planes but like 

Devo actually confuses me now that I think about it

EDIT: 

Also, newer, inexperienced elims might go to the doc or immediately respond- I can tell you I would've immediately responded no matter what alignment.

I don't count Neil as a new player (I still say don't c1 nk them) but I like the contributions they've been giving so I'm tentatively reading them as v

Edited December 12, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

50 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Ookla the Bald: believes neutral claim

Do you honestly think I believed that? Especially when my logic for doing so was "the Fey can't answer with a lie if you ask them thrice."

I did appreciate the puns though, specifically Siri et al killer. Very creative.

I figure it's pretty NAI, especially if it's related to the convention game. Though I do think it being a fake Convention game would be village leaning, but I doubt there's any way to prove that.

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Neil, what's the basis for your Aman read?

Thank you for asking this, was just about to. Break is over though so I haven't caught up on pages 5 and beyond

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Elims can have teammates run cover for them to win their game without being noticed by their opponent and have a better chance of being able to guess other groups, but they'll be less willing to risk suspicion being thrown on them by pursuing a convention goal, whereas villagers like I was guessing you were (claiming x3 for a convention game) would be more willing to risk themselves to win a prize since it's less harmful for them to die, even Brandon is more likely to sacrifice themselves than an elim.

Are you hungry, Devo? Cause I'm hungry

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Do you honestly think I believed that? Especially when my logic for doing so was "the Fey can't answer with a lie if you ask them thrice."

I did appreciate the puns though, specifically Siri et al killer. Very creative.

I figure it's pretty NAI, especially if it's related to the convention game. Though I do think it being a fake Convention game would be village leaning, but I doubt there's any way to prove that.

thank you for saying that lol. you have eliminated someone for my convention game. 

[Aeoryi she/her]

1 minute ago, Ookla of Ravens said:

thank you for saying that lol. you have eliminated someone for my convention game. 

I'm pretty sure I've already won my CG a long time ago but I could be wrong.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Thank you for asking this, was just about to. Break is over though so I haven't caught up on pages 5 and beyond

I gotchu ThreadPMBro

[Aeoryi she/her]

EDIT(?)

Also, I asked mat who was the Sanderson and it got PAFO'D 

[Coffeecat she/her]

Know what? I expected this; how can you get a bunch of SErs in a room and have them not kill each other.

I don't expect I will be murdered soon, I am just so un-talkative that I probably will get forgotten even by the killer.

Look, I'm just gonna sit on a corner and reread TWOK for the 7th time.

Love being here in my first con but I'm broke now.

Meh what did I expect, I probably won't even get to ask Brandon anything will I.

Even though I didn't think of anything to ask him but still.

 

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

i mean, if anything, the cons are that you have lost money, but the pros are that you are at cons.

[Cash67]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Welcome to tunneling with Aeoryi! Today's subject of stretch logic and poor reasoning is Archer/Ookla the Paradigm!

I'm inclined to believe archer, but also I feel like e!/n!archer could do something like this. 

Example:

WGG Gambit from last LG (LG98b) - there was literally no reason to do it except to claim self-protect lurcher and damn me with the "One of the Lurchers is Lying Lynch them both" so like ...

And e!archer has claimed fake roles:

Examples:

LG92- claimed "Rules ignorer" which supposedly could be immune to all night actions if they asked about the rules in thread during the day. Actual: "Gambit god" which made them role-block all night actions targeting them.

MR56- Claimed "Medium" which could ask 3 true or false questions to any dead player and had a one-oof revival. Actual: "Incinerator" which could surpress alignment flips for either NKs or Lynches

- -

But what has Archer done this game?

1. Made an (im0) obscure neutral claim that didn't make sense when backwards logicked

2. Expected more people to interact with that claim.

INTERMISSION:

You said you were a cereal killer, not a Serial killer, last I checked, and I noted it, but passed it off as it was probably a joke.

3. But also acknowledged that the claim wasn't very good. So yeah.

Verdict: Yeah he's probably village

Archer

Ravenclawjedi42 

I'm going to go look at them probably eventually expect that at some point

 

@Ookla the Rich I see u viewing the page

I think cash has played a game before? (Ash's honorblade game) I'll go check after this gimme a sec

 

EDIT:

Here's where he claimed I think:

^^^

You expect people to believe this clear-cut claim

Yeah I was in the honorblade game about a year ago. Village and started with an honorblade, got lynched while holding it. 

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Also, newer, inexperienced elims might go to the doc or immediately respond- I can tell you I would've immediately responded no matter what alignment.

I think the point isn't newer, inexperienced Elims per se - it's Archer treating the compulsion to immediately respond as the likely projected Elim response that doesn't feel quite right to me. But I'm also more or less of the view that outlier analysis is more helpful for identifying Elims in response to a reaction test - cf. TKN in the last AG. The difficulty is identifying the right set of outliers.

FWIW it's why I asked Araris the question I did about Spiked #2 - Tani's overjustification didn't feel right for what was supposed to be a fairly kneejerk thought process and while she was buried within a particular strata of responses, her response was still quite distinctive.

Will I run my own analysis on Archer's reaction test - probably, yeah, but not right now as I need to refresh my mind before coming back to this game. Since there's way more time to EoC than I was expecting, I'm willing to not rush this.

Edited to add: To precisify - when I say it doesn't feel quite right, I'm being literal here. I don't think it's the correct response to project. I don't regard it as being negatively indicative.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Kasimir

[JNV]

16 hours ago, Ookla the Raveness said:

I'll buy one!!! What do they cost?

12 hours ago, neil the beguiled said:

i would love a quokka... theyre so cute zomg...

Ten dollars each and tips welcome first twenty purchases come with a free quokka sticker from this pack I found in my bag come buy a quokka friend today great prices high value

Spoiler

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

I didn’t get a SK counter-claim, but I think this has run its course. Obviously it was a lie (sorry, TKN. Should have made me hold an iron horseshoe). Reaction recap, loosely ordered from n>v>e!:

-Ashbringer: no comment.

-JNV: no comment.

-Raveness: no comment.

Hey I did comment on it I said it doesnt matter either way cause SK doesnt count against our wincon and honestly I kinda wrote it off cause its you but I also didnt want to say that cause of that last time we misvoted you cause you were trying to be less gambity

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

12 minutes ago, JNV said:

Ten dollars each and tips welcome first twenty purchases come with a free quokka sticker from this pack I found in my bag come buy a quokka friend today great prices high value

  Reveal hidden contents

Hey I did comment on it I said it doesnt matter either way cause SK doesnt count against our wincon and honestly I kinda wrote it off cause its you but I also didnt want to say that cause of that last time we misvoted you cause you were trying to be less gambity

"sir, do you even have a license?"

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

FWIW it's why I asked Araris the question I did about Spiked #2 - Tani's overjustification didn't feel right for what was supposed to be a fairly kneejerk thought process and while she was buried within a particular strata of responses, her response was still quite distinctive.

I'll also add, FWIW, as I'm tired of relitigating this point as it's come up several times and not just wrt my Devo read:

I think it's pretty obvious that I don't share my full thought process in the thread because the thread doesn't need me doing a full infodump there, even if I do use it as a thought scratch table. I also think that sometimes raw thoughts are unhelpful because players can misunderstand your uncertainties, or even worse, it misleads Village after you're dead when you're really playing with rough working rather than solid thoughts. GM PMs take some of that load, as do PMs with other players. I also on occasion just incoherently ramble to Wyrm, Drake, and Stick.

I also sometimes just don't have it written down, and get there because of iteration, i.e. by articulating variants of the same thought multiple times and slowly drawing mental connections or shifts.

You can buy that I did in fact have this thought process, or that I didn't, I really don't care. But I'd like if we stop assuming that the only thoughts I have are the ones visible in the thread. I don't always articulate everything that's going on in my head when I vote or do things or express suspicions because, astonishingly, I have a filter and know it's not always helpful. I stand by my comments about outlier analysis being more helpful wrt reaction tests, even if it's damned hard to finangle.

Hey @JNV, I'm curious: what is the current state of your reads rn?