Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[Turtle]

for purely acedemic reasons, what are we killing people with?

[The Wandering Wizard]

For purely poetic reasons, who are we killing?

[Turtle]

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

For purely poetic reasons, who are we killing?

possibly autonomy. maybe.

[|TJ|]

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Let's make thread PMs :eyes:

sorry kasbro, was super busy today. 

---

al looks around and finds himself back in silverlight. huh when had that happened. oh well no matter. twas time for another adventure. hed long since given up autonomy and was now just plain ol al. he looked at the shards in containment and dismissed them. meh. he just wanted to chill. holding autonomy was not troubling but this new found freedom unburdened from the intent of shards, he liked it. kinda like just getting out of a relashunship and finding you love being single. ah. that freedom. 

[xinoehp512]

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Free food? Felt Jr. was not as strict or hardcore as his father.  Free food would get him every day. Though, that could be because he was 12. “Whoooha! I’ll be there,” he cries toward the funny looking man who had spoken. 

"Perfect!" exclaimed Xorial. "Say, would you mind doing something for me?"

---

Big game.  Been a while since I've done proper rules analysis, but I think it's worth it this time.

Part 1: Win-cons (not Shardic)

Spoiler

Each faction has two win conditions: outnumber/eliminate, and sudden-death. I'll start by reviewing each of the sudden-death win condtions.

The 17th Shard

Win condition: kill enemy leaders and place all Shards in containment. This is potentially plausible depending upon how the game plays out, but I wouldn't count on it. Killing all enemy leaders is part of the primary win condition anyways, but unless we get very lucky, a good number of the Shards will be out of containment by the time this happens. Since some of them may belong to the enemy at that point, it's likely too risky to put them back into containment while we can still use them ourselves.

Adonalsium's Chosen & the Standard of Unity

Win condition: fuse all Shards and Invest all Shards, respectively. I group these together because they are very similar: both require all Shards to pass through the hands of their leaders. This will be easier if they can get all of their conversions out, since with the leader +3 they can break out a shard completely on their own without assistance, but it's unlikely enough that I wouldn't worry about it. Moreover, the entire process will be telegraphed to all players, so we'll see it coming a mile off. It's important to note that Shattered Shards are much more difficult for both factions to use, as the leader has to win the 1/4 chance of breaking them from containment, and that Khriss's power is much more detrimental to the 17th Shard's sudden death (but also less useful to her own faction)- but again, since these win conditions are all but impossible, I doubt we'll have to worry too much about these interactions.

Autonomous

Win condition: Have half or more extant charges be Autonomous. This is by far the most dangerous sudden death wincon, given that it is a complete mystery how close it is to being fulfilled. To be safe, players should burn Autonomy as soon as they get it whenever possible. What's more, we should focus kills on the Avatars. Odious charges are particularly well suited for this, as they will always succeed (Avatars will never have charges to defend with).

 

Outnumber/Eliminate win-cons

While we can't forget entirely about the sudden-death cons, it's interesting to note that they are most likely to succeed when the group in question has already fulfilled the outnumber/eliminate condition. Thus, it is this strategy that we should primarily concern ourselves with.

It is by far more worthwhile to spend night-time actions on conversions than it is on pretty much anything else. Each successful conversion grants Hoid and Khriss an extra action towards their victory, as well as reducing their own criticality. If the leader of a faction is killed while they still have conversions, it is equivalent to killing multiple members of their faction.

The path to victory for the two conversion factions is clear: recruit all their converts, attempt by whatever means to get one of the kill shards, and then operate like an elim faction until they win.

The path to victory for Autonomy is to make Avatars every single day turn and try to keep them alive faster than everyone else can destroy them. Autonomy's Night actions are open, and if they can get another Shard, it's very good for them, but they have a lot of defense until that happens.

I've wound up rambling a bit, so I'll cut myself off. Here are the main takeaways I see:

• Autonomy's sudden death con is the only one worth worrying about, because it is secret:
  • Thus you should always burn Autonomy as soon as you get it.
• Avatars should be killed as fast as we can target them. 
  • Odious investiture is particularly good for this purpose: Avatars cannot defend against it.
• Factions want to convert ASAP.
  • With fifteen shards and only 17 convertible players, not to mention Frost's conversion blocker, there is a very real chance that they will not be able to convert people if they wait too long.
  • Nothing else they can do is worth their time. A 1/4 minimum chance to get a shard is not worth the lost tempo, not when they can have their recruit do the same odds the next cycle.
• The village wants to break every Shard out of containment as fast as possible.
  • Forget the sudden-death win con. If we kill the leaders, killing their followers will be way easier than getting every Shard back.

So which Shards should we target?

1. Ruin and Odium

These are high priority targets. The two conversion factions can use them as NKs with impunity should they ever get their hands on them. If they are in our hands, they aren't in the enemy's.

2. Prudence

This is the opposite: useless to the enemy, but valuable to us. In the hands of a converter, this Shard is essentially useless, thanks to faction docs. To the village, however, this is a powerful tool. The main power of the hidden factions is their secrecy. With Prudence, the village can gain part of that power.

3. All protection Shards

Protection is just good. I'll leave it at that.

TL;DR

Ruin, Odium and Prudence are the shards I think we should go for in the first cycle. If we can come to an agreement on which Shards we want to break out of containment, I would recommend that villagers choose one at random. That way we maximize the number of Shards broken out of containment while minimizing the information on who has which Shard.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Turtle said:

for purely acedemic reasons, what are we killing people with?

Well, my academics have to do with quivers, so I suppose that arrows will be my preferred method of execution.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

2 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

“Perfect!" exclaimed Xorial. "Say, would you mind doing something for me?"

EDIT: Odium Reigns…

Edited June 6, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Elandera]

Telan rushed into the library, hair a frizzy mess and glasses barely hanging on. Books and papers weighed down her arms, seemingly more than anyone should be able to carry, but the faint wisp of stormlight rising from her skin hinted at her true capabilities. 

"You're la-"

"No, I am not." Telan set the stack down with a sigh and pushed her hair away from her face. "I'm just not early."

"It's the same as being late," Kelrin said as he stepped up beside her and began shuffling through the stack, reading the titles. It may have made others in Alethkar uncomfortable, but the world's were changing and Kelrin was not from Alethkar, let alone Roshar. "Interesting selection you have here."

"It's the best I could collect on such short notice, and with Kharbranth as it is."

"It'll have to do."

---

I made it! Sorry for the delay. I lost power last night and cell reception was terrible. But I'm here now. Will work on catching up tonight.

[The Wandering Wizard]

Odium does not like Hoid

Bavadin, the enemy 

Ruin doesn't help Khriss

 

These are the dangerous Shards to the various groups. Delivered in Haiku form

Just some thoughts about the most dangerous Shards to each respective faction. With Autonomy being dangerous to all.

[STINK]

PMs come to you if good vibes, bad vibes mean you go to PMs.

So says the great Sage

[The Unknown Ajah]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

How is your ‘evil’ list defined? Cause all the factions have separate goals, and there’s not a general elim faction really

"General Evil." If they're not 17th shard, they're evil. They can do the work of decided the intricacies of what their faction needs, but We the Village can treat them basically as the same for the purposes of what Shards they want. Really for other purposes too. I'm not going to do three times the work to save them time and give us almost zero advantage.

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I just passed my candidacy exam! Time to celebrate with some murder

100% a Porch Bro thing to say

[DrakeMarshall]

i just probably messed up my sleep schedule a little bit by taking a nap during the day lol

5 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

"Attention everyone!" Xorial announced. He couldn't tell if anyone was listening, but that had never stopped him before. "The 17th Shard Rebirth Society is holding an interest meeting in two hours! Pizza will be served!"

He sat back down, confident that the promise of free food would attract at least one interested party.

Is an interesting meeting like a meeting where you disburse interest payments on exciting investments

Because if the 18th Shard Memers ever did an interest meeting, that is probably what it would be

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I just passed my candidacy exam! Time to celebrate with some murder

The only correct way to celebrate passing an exam fr

[Turtle]

48 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The only correct way to celebrate passing an exam fr

hmm. i did pass my math exam today? maybe i will be murdering soon.

that being said i may also be murdered soon.

@The Bald Brandon i am stuck reading all of your posts in brandon's voice. send help.

[Sart]

I don't know why the factions wouldn't convert. Getting an extra player enables talking inside of docs, more action economy, and a better game experience. What else would they even do? Admittedly Bavadin can't convert, but they'll make friends regardless.

I think I'm just going to go with what feels flavorful for me today.

[Archer]

-DeTess' point that PMs aren't very useful in a docs game is a good one. 

-Conversion is a no brainer, yeah? Maybe you wait to see who will last, but your worst case scenario goes from losing everything with one death to only losing half your team. They'll take the insurance and should take it early. 

-I have mixed feelings about pushing yourself into being an Independent player. You're gonna have to justify making us lose a villager, but I think there's situations where it makes sense. 

-There's going to be a cascading effect from breaking Shards out of containment. Less contained shards being available to tap means they're more likely to have four people siphon from them, resulting in more and more being broken out each round. 

-Vessel Actions seem like a thing the elims will covet. Vessel Shield is also handy. 

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

-There's going to be a cascading effect from breaking Shards out of containment. Less contained shards being available to tap means they're more likely to have four people siphon from them, resulting in more and more being broken out each round. 

Only if everyone stays on Silverlight, no? You don't seem to be able to siphon on another Shardworld.

Edited to add: Ngl this is making me question if Archer is Village and I s2g I wanted a goddamned chill game without giving a chull about the Village -.- My reasons for now doubting Archer can't be articulated in thread legally but I will just say that if you are a Researcher, this should be pretty obvious to you!

Edited June 7, 2023 by Kasimir

[Szeth_Pancakes]

Here’s an idea.

If you choose to take Investiture this turn, RNG your Shard Investiture choices from a select pool of high-priority Shards. For example: roll from 1-3. If you roll a 1, take from Odium; a 2, take from Ruin; a 3, take from Mercy. That way, it’s mostly guaranteed that two or three of them will be broke out and end up in village hands, and the elims don’t have any extra info that might point them to Vessels.

[Kasimir]

Quote

 

 

Avatar of Autonomy: Avatars are how Autonomy does business that is otherwise too overt for the Vessel themselves to perform. They are created via Autonomy’s Investment action, and Autonomy may only have X Avatars at any one time. If an Avatar is present on a Shardworld, they gain access to that Shardworld’s Google Doc and the Vessel of Autonomy may speak in it anonymously as that Avatar.

Nevermind I forgot about this. 

Basically treat docs as a private thread. Hi Autonomy! If you're in for the party doc, don't give deals and offers :eyes: We welcome you if your meme game is stronk.

Spoiler

This took me too long to find given that the forum is PG9.

Edited to add: Double nvm, Ash has clarified they have to make their presence known, so no QF64-style eavesdropping, thank the Gods both old and new.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

Hey all!

A few things. First, I'm making a minor rule change to prevent an exploit - you can now only pass one Charge of Investiture or one Shard in a Passing action. To be honest, I forgot that it was unlimited when I started balancing things.

Second, I'm adding a clarifications section to the writeups, I'll try to add anything I've clarified (in PMs, docs, or threads) since the start of the game there.

Third, the number of Conversions and Avatars for the different factions is remaining at 3 and 6, respectively. Might be on the high end, but 2 conversions feels on the low end and I don't know how you convert half a player.

Fourth, I got a summer job! Which comes with an unpredictable schedule that will likely cover most evenings. So that rollover change I thought would happen probably will happen. Not this cycle, and I'll try and give more warning than a few hours (probably extend D2 or something, idk).

About 3 hours and 40 minutes until rollover!

[JNV]

World thoughts Silverlight is only good if youre a researcher and theres good trapped Shards left or if youve gotten a ton of power and youre looking to unleash it on players you dont know where they are sorta thing Roshar is like Silverlight Researcher but for everyone plus doc Braize is for dumping stockpiles excluding generous Shards its one per turn and ou cant do it when worldhipping so N3 shots fired sorta situation Scadrial s useful if youre expecting shots from Braize or Odium cause like hop there day shield there night Nalthis is standard vote manipultaion Threnodys more useful the less players are there and the more contentious the vote might be a decent place to hide if you dont want things poking you Taldains not the most useful in the world but I guess information can cross the realm of life and death with Returned so info dump everything you can I guess Sels a place to customize not gain 

In terms of powerful shards to have out Honors always good Meryc Ruin and Odium feel important mostly as just keep out of evil hands sort of thing in terms of ones that arent useful Cultivations repair splinters thing is only useful to Hoids group really um everything else is middling priority Ambition looks cool cause pipeline to the dead but more useful late game

Something I didnt notice the first time um Bavadins a researcher which is cool um @Ashbringer do Autonomy Avatars count as living players for the purposes of countering the Chosen and Unity people and for 17th Shard kill them all 

Honestly for strategy people just do what they want and well probably end up with a fairly even spread but I  guess well just see how the numbers turn out um I wanted to put more here but I honestly have so many tabs open I forgot about this one so Im going to post it before I forget about it agian and miss rollover bye

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I don't know how you convert half a player.

You divide a player in half and both halves fight for supremacy and great justice on which team they will defend to the death!

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Fourth, I got a summer job! Which comes with an unpredictable schedule that will likely cover most evenings. So that rollover change I thought would happen probably will happen. Not this cycle, and I'll try and give more warning than a few hours (probably extend D2 or something, idk).

Congrats!

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, JNV said:

Something I didnt notice the first time um Bavadins a researcher which is cool um @Ashbringer do Autonomy Avatars count as living players for the purposes of countering the Chosen and Unity people and for 17th Shard kill them all 

Hmm. Could probably go either way, but I'll say no they do not count as players for other faction's win conditions, only for the Autonomous Win Con.

(That may come back to bite me, but the Autonomous SD wincon can happen separately from any of the other wincons anyway so it shouldn't matter too much.)

[The Unknown Ajah]

3 hours ago, Turtle said:

hmm. i did pass my math exam today? maybe i will be murdering soon.

that being said i may also be murdered soon.

@The Bald Brandon i am stuck reading all of your posts in brandon's voice. send help.

As I said, sorry, not sorry.

[DrakeMarshall]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You divide a player in half and both halves fight for supremacy and great justice on which team they will defend to the death!