Mid-Range Game 62: In The Shadow of Ash

[Stick. she/her]

bro he is dead

[Mat he/him]

xino

Good point

Idk who to vote then, Fifth again is kinda boring and I don't have time to backread. What's the VC?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Off vibes alone I'd tactically nuke Araris rn. Otherwise I'm leadless atm, but I'm thinking

[Amanuensis he/him]

18 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Channelknight Fadran (5): JNV, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Kasimir, Ashbringer, Amanuensis
Fifth Scholar (2): xinoehp512, Matrim's Dice
Kasimir (2): The Known Novel, The Bookwyrm
Ashbringer (2): Channelknight Fadran, _Stick_
The Known Novel (1): Araris Valerian
The Bookwyrm (1): |TJ|

Okay so. Votes with colors, yeah?

We see the alternative options were Fifth, Kas, and TNK. Does anyone here suspect any of them? Because if you bellieve in the argument for elims pushing Fadran over to protect one of their own then you need to look there.

Otherwise, elims could be invested anywhere because none of them are in danger, and Araris leaving his vote parked on TKN is notable imo

Edited February 23, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

38 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

We see the alternative options were Fifth, Kas, and TNK. Does anyone here suspect any of them? Because if you bellieve in the argument for elims pushing Fadran over to protect one of their own then you need to look there.

I'm kinda in an "elims weren't under thread" world for the C1 votes. Hence my earlier post considering TKN and Stick in regards to side trains.

However, if we're being honest, TKN was never really an option, so Fifth and Kas are the only potential elims that the Fadran train would have protected. I have v!Kas credence right now (bolstered by his village read on Bookwyrm from last cycle), so exeing Fifth would confirm in my eyes if the elims had motive for the Fadran train.

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Fifth Scholar what say you!

ED1T:

Oh and reason I asked about 2 starting elims is because I think vote analysis is going to be very different in a 3 elim world and 2 elim world

Edited February 24, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Fifth Scholar what say you!

ED1T:

Oh and reason I asked about 2 starting elims is because I think vote analysis is going to be very different in a 3 elim and 2 elim world

Yeah. And depending on the starting elims, if they already converted then they might have taken the vote of their target into account.

[Mat he/him]

Fifth

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

Mat

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

48 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Fifth Scholar what say you!

ED1T:

Oh and reason I asked about 2 starting elims is because I think vote analysis is going to be very different in a 3 elim world and 2 elim world

I say that I probably deserve execution but would like to escape it anyways  

My inquisitor shortlist does include Araris but I am receiving word that it possibly should not, so I think I want to look in <Mat, Bip, JNV, Aman, Kas> assuming I am not getting the wrong vibes off TJ and Stick. I’m okay with a JNV vote for now but I should do actual analysis at some point. Kinda tough when all my suspicions and leads got blown to bits yesterday and turned up Village >>

[Amanuensis he/him]

55 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I say that I probably deserve execution but would like to escape it anyways  

My inquisitor shortlist does include Araris but I am receiving word that it possibly should not, so I think I want to look in <Mat, Bip, JNV, Aman, Kas> assuming I am not getting the wrong vibes off TJ and Stick. I’m okay with a JNV vote for now but I should do actual analysis at some point. Kinda tough when all my suspicions and leads got blown to bits yesterday and turned up Village >>

Well if you probably deserve it, Fifth. Curious why you think so tho

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Well if you probably deserve it, Fifth. Curious why you think so tho

You know perfectly well why  

[Kasimir he/him]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Spoiler

It'll be hilarious if he is though.

 

No, it really would not be. He can be Evil on his own time and not drag other people into suffering with him. Leave me out of it! >:(

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I actually do still think JNV is suspicious. For one, they are/were way too bothered about my one vote. And by bothered I mean they brought it up (both last cycle and referenced it again this cycle), deeming it worthy enough to respond to. Given that my vote was pretty baseless and gut-reliant then, that response is bugging me. And secondly, their post from this cycle reminds me of LG89!JNV (also it is devoid of a quokka pic?:0). I voted for them C1 cuz it was C1 and Kas you know what I base my D1 votes on. If they aren't even slightly village to me, I'll vote for them. The way I then prioritise the votes is gut-based. This response applies to your Ash question too. 

Honestly, I don't remember that, I just remember most of your solving process from LG92  I will admit 'can read them later' is new for me as a solving MO, and it might be over-confidence from QF64 (yes we botched it but I got some players right via meta reads) and AG9. I just find it weird that you don't remotely consider "I could solve them later" to be a reason to prioritise one player over another if they're both in your suspect pool.

Hmm. At the moment, this will be ironic, but: Mat.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Current VC:

Quote

(2) JNV: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, 
(2) Fifth Scholar: Matrim's Dice, Amanuensus,
(2) Matrim's Dice: The Known Novel, Kasimir, 
(1) _Stick_: Araris Valerian,

Last VC:

Quote

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Current VC:

Last VC:

 

I refuse to defend all three of them. I only have so much RP energy... >:(

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Current VC:

Last VC:

 

Giving this the Official GM Stamp of Approval. Officially™.

Oh also here’s your 22 hour reminder to get your votes and actions in before rollover. Don’t forget there’s an inactivity filter! @JNV @Biplet @Fifth Scholar @Araris Valerian @The Known Novel  @_Stick_ @Kasimir @|TJ|@Amanuensis @Matrim's Dice

Edited February 24, 2023 by StrikerEZ

[Kasimir he/him]

Current direction of thoughts after another re-read:

• TJ: Positive meta read off C1, mostly off the slip about the converts. Feel that sort of mistake is less likely to come from E!TJ who is more on the ball about these things. Have gone back to look at his LG83 posts and feel TJ is a bit more thread engaged. He does do the catch thing, cf. against V!Steel that game, but he doesn't like to do it live in thread.
• Stick: Positive meta read off C1 small engagement style. On rereading, wonder if JNV/anti-Fadran push comes from E!Stick having TMI that the train is a bad one. Call for a switch off Fadran at EoC just feels odd. Did suggest Ash but Ash CW was instigated by Fifth, which feels very hands-off given it was another Village train. Off-train voter. I don't disagree with Stick pushing on JNV, but also feel that JNV tends to be a LHF train when Village, which means that I pay more attention to people who push them.
• Fifth: EoC Yagami Taichi stress response is more characteristic of V!Fifth, and also I was this guy's lawyer. 
• Mat: Nothing strong. Liked exchange on D1. Side-train voter, and liked Fadran CW but remained hands-off which is potentially indicative of TMI. More a profile issue than anything.
• TKN: Positive C1 where developing suspicions are concerned, votes C1 and C2 otherwise appear to be convenience votes and side-train. Runs closer to TKN's E!meta of coasting once he feels he has secured a Village read. Dislike.
• Aman: I can see E!Aman worlds, but lean V for now on the basis of PM interactions. And probably a healthy amount of NOPE.
• Araris: Liked the direction of his thoughts in this thread, acknowledge that I always want to V!read Araris; probably nulling out of wariness.
• Biplet: Don't like the tone of her response, admit that I have commented on multiple occasions that Bip has that sort of pressure response. Vote comes in an odd place for E!Bip, possible in a Fifth/Bip world but not sure that's consistent with how Fifth was working the thread.
• JNV: So, forcing myself to move past the guilt and focus on the game, my problem is this. I don't disagree JNV had that Fifth vote, on the basis of PM Buddy. Wonder if JNV hmming Stick but not voting on Stick is indicative of distancing since there hasn't been much of a JNV train, and despite Stick pushing for JNV at points, nothing much has come out of it, which seems fairly non-committal. But at the same time, I note JNV is a player I categorise as having takes they get overly fixated on, and they are thrown off by certain types of playstyles. So I don't find this as AI as Stick does. My one tipping point is that I feel like E!JNV would at least make a token attempt to pocket me, and I'm not sure JNV actually has. (Literally everyone else: "You're defending them, Kas, of course they have.")

I'll leave the North Americans to sort this mess out.

Edited to add:

I guess I will say this as well. I am not sure E!JNV has a reason to save Fifth despite PM Buddy, knowing the attention this would draw to them, barring an E!JNV/E!Fifth sort of world. With my current V!Fifth credences, I don't really put much weight on this.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

@Matrim's Dice, what was the reasonings behind your vote on xino? Let's assume he's alive. Why did you put down a vote on him?

[Stick. she/her]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:23 AM, Biplet said:

Well, because I couldn't see much reasoning on Fifth? The votes on him came from you in a post without any reasoning attached. Also this was during the whole get TKN his flip thing, which I still don't completely understand why you were so against, but w/e.

Fifth suspicion was born from him not voting every suspicion he has, but like, from my perspective, I've never voted that way either. I'm always afraid I'll forget to move a vote, which is also why I rarely poke vote. I can't in good conscience sus fifth for that when I do it myself yknow?

I guess similar arguments could be made for Fadran, but I didn't feel good about a Fifth exe and I didn't feel good about a TKN exe and if I threw a vote on a random CW it would be a useless vote, and tying up this early in the game has always felt weird. So I guess a variety of things.

side note, unrelated to above, am running into irl things, going to keep playing, life is running me over, just wanted to let ppl know if i disappear for a while at a time. Striker is (obviously) aware of the situation

I’m reading this as village, btw. It’s reminiscent of Mouse.

[|TJ| he/him]

Done with the re-read - 

@Kasimir, why did you vote on Fadran in the first place?

@Fifth Scholar, repeating the question, why is Araris in your PoE?

Fifth and @Amanuensis, what do you think of Kas right now?

Also feel Stick is very firmly in her AG8/LG92 meta, at least till now, so would not be entertaining a vote there. Demoting Mat to the PoE (answer my question when you come on Mat) - Stick and TKN remain my only village reads. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, |TJ| said:

@Kasimir, why did you vote on Fadran in the first place?

Doubling the pressure. Early Mat vote that stayed camped, clear thread lurking, and low thread tempo seemed to point to a cycle where the Elims weren't feeling pressure at that point in time, with Fadran potentially fitting the profile. Acknowledged as well that I felt I could read Fifth better given time, agreed with Stick that Ash was not showing his Village meta but felt it was the sort of thing also visible given time to get into the game since Ash had specifically flagged he was busy. So I doubled the vote to see what came out of it. Then rollover happened and I wasn't able to juggle two games or to really work out how I felt about the EoC options so I just threw my hands up in the air.

Mat also made a point that the Fadran observation felt like it came from TMI given the number of games Fadran has played and I felt he had a point.

Fadran observation:

 

[Mat he/him]

5 hours ago, |TJ| said:

@Matrim's Dice, what was the reasonings behind your vote on xino? Let's assume he's alive. Why did you put down a vote on him?

I looked at last turn’s VC and thought, “which vote would I like to pressure the most” and xino was it. There wasn’t a whole lot of rationale behind it, (clearly, or I would have thought long enough to realize he was dead xD) I just wanted to see where it would go.

[Stick. she/her]

F I N D    T H E    I N Q U I S I T O R

Living players: <JNV, Fifth, Bip, Araris, TKN, Stick, Kas, TJ, Aman, Mat>

Removing my village reads: <JNV, Araris, Kas, Aman, Mat>

Removing players unlikely to be the Inquisitor due to roles shenanigans or non-inquisitor play*: <JNV, Mat>

Out of those two I feel slightly better about Mat but not by a decent margin.

*By non-inquisitor play I mean players intentionally garnering attention, risking being scanned. Though the elims could have a Smoker... 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

F I N D    T H E    I N Q U I S I T O R

Living players: <JNV, Fifth, Bip, Araris, TKN, Stick, Kas, TJ, Aman, Mat>

Removing my village reads: <JNV, Araris, Kas, Aman, Mat>

Removing players unlikely to be the Inquisitor due to roles shenanigans or non-inquisitor play*: <JNV, Mat>

Out of those two I feel slightly better about Mat but not by a decent margin.

*By non-inquisitor play I mean players intentionally garnering attention, risking being scanned. Though the elims could have a Smoker... 

Curious why you are v-reading Bip, but I am not averse to the list otherwise. 

eh soddit

I might as well go after my legal representation. Kasimir

Lawyer, defend thyself  

also @Biplet @|TJ| @The Known Novel @Araris Valerian @JNV whichever of you have not been told by your doc-mates might be interested to learn that I am the Mistborn responsible for the Xino and Ash kills

d1 reread has reinforced v!Stick, made me suspect v!Mat, and made me keep side-eyeing TJ. Aman seems Village holistically so not willing to Exe him right now

[Stick. she/her]

5 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Curious why you are v-reading Bip, but I am not averse to the list otherwise. 

eh soddit

I might as well go after my legal representation. Kasimir

Lawyer, defend thyself  

also @Biplet @|TJ| @The Known Novel @Araris Valerian @JNV whichever of you have not been told by your doc-mates might be interested to learn that I am the Mistborn responsible for the Xino and Ash kills

d1 reread has reinforced v!Stick, made me suspect v!Mat, and made me keep side-eyeing TJ. Aman seems Village holistically so not willing to Exe him right now

Just thread vibes, and PM vibes tbh. It's not the strongest read but it'll do for now.

I'm also side eyeing Kas, but do you think he's the inquisitor or just a plain old elim?