Mat he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Now that the After Mat is posted, I can come out and say it. This is actually the first time I caught this pun :| Also every single time Bip posts I have to remind myself she’s not my elim buddy and not get defensive about pushes on her looool the LG took a toll And no that was not an elim slip in this game :P.
|TJ| he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Okay so we have 10 players alive. I've moderately confident in Stick, Mat and TKN. Excluding me, that's a PoE of 6 players - Fifth, Aman, Kas, JNV, Araris, Biplet Hmmm. There is Kas-JNV connection. There is Fifth-JNV connection. There is Fifth-Biplet connection. I - I need to re-read the end of cycle. I just glanced through it. 1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said: So with that small massacre we are already looking at 2:8 or 3:7 odds. I feel like I want to start looking in <Bip, Araris, Mat> for an Inquisitor. Will throw another vote on Araris for now. Why Araris?
Biplet she/her Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: This is actually the first time I caught this pun :| Also every single time Bip posts I have to remind myself she’s not my elim buddy and not get defensive about pushes on her looool the LG took a toll And no that was not an elim slip in this game :P. REAL We’re both traumatized
JNV Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Alright lets actually try to think about last cycle so I dont really consider Novels whole snapping thing alignment indicative cause like as either alingment its really early game or nothing and D1s the best time no suspicions or history to talk about instead and the only other way theyd snap is by getting a lot lot lot of suspicion which is not good but basically motive for doing it is the same for both sides hard to tell from the outside which it is and I mean at the time I kind of raised an eyebrow to Bookwyrms village read of them like I always do at their general tone and stuff but I guess theyve been exonerated post mortem and ack I think the problem here is Novels tone or like insistence on the 'gambit' and like its not really a gambit when the votes are by request and inherently toothless cause of that and how its amazing and definitely better than leaving them unsnapped like it feels overstated they could have just gone in and said hey to snap I need 8 votes on me at once then they can go away and not fussed about it but like I go through this process with Novels tone in like every game so I dont really know Ok so as far as I can tell the Fadran vote came from Amanuensis plopping a vote on there Kasimir also plopping a vote on there Ashbringer breaking the Tyrian Tie then a Save Fifth coalition the Fifth vote was entirely reasonless Kasimirs was for opposition to the Novel scheme Ashbringer was an alternative to the Fifth Fadran dichotomy Novel was a lingering stab vote and TJ agreed with the initial Kasimir bit on Bookwyrm something I note Sticks objection to the Fadran vote hits a bit weird considering the lack of substance for anything else including their vote on me sadness like sure Fadran wasnt a great vote but is anyone a good vote on D1 what makes Fadran substantially worse like enough to comment on and stuff So conclusion Stick gets a hm Novel feels weird but they always feel weird and honestly my brain is mush I should have gone to sleep hours ago but Im not tired good night all Im going to lay in bed for a while and hope I actually fall asleep bye
Kasimir he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Current Thoughts: Did a recap of last cycle, and some this cycle stuff. Trains stayed fairly stable minus the hopping on and off with regard to TKN and the EoD flurry of activity. Assess low likelihood that Fifth or myself were converted - we were viable trains for too long and I kind of doubt the Inquisitor wanted to mess with that. With three kills, I think contra Fifth that we basically have to postulate a CS (possible, depending on padding - a single Lurcher down does indicate we got unlucky or possible prevalence. Just hard to say off the bat) or two Mistborn. Or I guess the Duralumin case works too. Two CSes stretches credulity. The issue is that based off actions economy, one way or another, especially if you think the conversion gun fired C1 (I don't think so, but I think Mat at least felt the conversion would go off early), then there's just no way to account for all the kills as being Elim. Add the fact that claiming was unnecessary and targeting, and well, there you go. I was sort of operating on the assumption they were vigkills anyway, but there you go. TKN votes on me to pursue the matter further. Curious to know if he got anything out of that pursuit. Noteworthy that Ash states he doesn't want to tunnel TKN Quote TKN (3): Araris, Aman, Stick Mat (1): Fadran Fifth (2): Mat, Xino Kas (2): Fifth, TKN Xino (1): Kas Aman (1): TJ Want to note this part of the cycle has been low tempo so far. Potential complacency? Stick votes Ash for not being in his Village meta and acknowledges it might be D1. Given that Ash became another flogged CW later, I'm flagging this. @_Stick_, I guess maybe this is a methodological dispute between us that reared its head over JNV as well, but I'm struggling to understand why you don't consider players who are readable a problem for later, so as to speak. What's your thought process here? TJ votes Bookwyrm, feeling Bookwyrm's post was too generic and sheeped. @|TJ| Question - were you considering Bookwyrm's history of sheeping here? JNV votes in defense of Fifth. @JNV - To be clear, is this just PM buddy reasons? Fifth @s Fadran to go to Ash. Fadran does so. @Fifth Scholar Any reason why you did train negotiations with Fadran when you also listed him as someone you wanted dead? + Why back to Fadran? Bip/Fifth team doesn't feel as likely. Move should have been talked over in the doc first, plus doesn't feel consistent with Fifth's defense strategy, barring an Inquisitor!Fifth world or so. Feel that if conversion went off, we can probably split the pools based on profile: <TKN, Stick, TJ, Mat, Aman, Fifth, me> for disruption, <Araris, Bip, JNV> for concealment. Hard to tell at this juncture but worth keeping in mind if we can get a future flip.
|TJ| he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kasimir said: TJ votes Bookwyrm, feeling Bookwyrm's post was too generic and sheeped. @|TJ| Question - were you considering Bookwyrm's history of sheeping here? What history bro, I only played with them in 1 game. My vote was purely for their post.
Kasimir he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 43 minutes ago, |TJ| said: What history bro, I only played with them in 1 game. My vote was purely for their post. I don't disagree it's a question that needed to be asked, to paraphrase an exchange I had with one of <Mat, Fifth> about Bookwyrm in QF64. Just one of the thoughts that cropped up in my re-read, and if you were aware of it, that'd probably be more interesting Edited to add: Coloured in for rough and dirty: Quote Channelknight Fadran (5): JNV, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Kasimir, Ashbringer, Amanuensis Fifth Scholar (2): xinoehp512, Matrim's Dice Kasimir (2): The Known Novel, The Bookwyrm Ashbringer (2): Channelknight Fadran, _Stick_ The Known Novel (1): Araris Valerian The Bookwyrm (1): |TJ| Minus a vote, so we know that Fadran did in fact Soothe a vote off him. Not sure I believe Fadran train is really that pure. Edited February 23, 2023 by Kasimir
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 A guy goes to sleep early for once in his life and this is what he wakes up to? Smh. 2
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 9 hours ago, The Known Novel said: TKN
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 9 hours ago, |TJ| said: Why Araris? He's just charging up my porch powers. So Stick and Kas have both been somewhat adamant in my PMs with them that TKN is village. Kas's method of reasoning seems to be consistent with how I think v!him approaches things. I'm not really sure about Stick though. It seems like quite an odd hill to want to die on during D1 over someone who didn't really contribute a lot of content (directly, at least). But I'm also not sure that is something the elims would do. I was literally the only TKN voter that stuck to my guns (surprising, given that Ardalan would have taken a bribe), so he wasn't really in danger. On the flip side, if we are in an e!TKN world then it makes sense to try and stop anyone from coming back and reconsidering him. And of course, this is relevant because Stick, TKN, and Mat are the only living players that vote on 2-person side trains, so I feel like there are decent odds on of them is elim. So I guess I'll vote Stick for now.
Mat he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: But I'm also not sure that is something the elims would do. I was literally the only TKN voter that stuck to my guns (surprising, given that Ardalan would have taken a bribe), so he wasn't really in danger. On the flip side, if we are in an e!TKN world then it makes sense to try and stop anyone from coming back and reconsidering him. And of course, this is relevant because Stick, TKN, and Mat are the only living players that vote on 2-person side trains, so I feel like there are decent odds on of them is elim. To be fair, you were the only TKN that had guns to begin with And the side train argument doesn't work as well here since Fadran was village. I'm more interested in the people who voted him.
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Any guesses which kill was the elim one? If the Mistborn responsible for shooting two players last night wants to claim to someone in PMs, that'd be swell too
Mat he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Amanuensis said: If the Mistborn responsible for shooting two players last night wants to claim to someone in PMs, that'd be swell too TMI? :P. I personally lean towards one CS/one MB. I also don't know if claiming here is a good idea.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: And the side train argument doesn't work as well here since Fadran was village. Says the person on a side train. Unless you think all the elims voted Fadran, this doesn't make sense. My point has basically nothing to do with Fadran's alignment, and more that elims tend to avoid voting together when they can. This extends to any potential convert they made.
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: TMI? :P. I personally lean towards one CS/one MB. I also don't know if claiming here is a good idea. Noted that you have no guesses for which kill was the elim's For me, I don't think one CS/one MB works, essentially for the reasons Fifth outlined earlier. Personally, I think Xino was an info denial NK, and that a single v!Mistborn used Duralumin/Steel to clear up two of yesterday's CWs (Ash and Book). This would come at the cost of said Mistborn never being able to use Steel again, but it essentially helps us by accelerating the game through the "vote the CW" phase. And the reason why killing CWs is attractive is that there's a good chance they're a different alignment than whoever flipped before, so it's ultimately a village-sided play For me, I think it's easier to reach the conclusion of a single v!Mistborn deciding to go ham C1 than for there to be a v!CS and a v!Mistborn with Steel independently shooting different CWs Edited February 23, 2023 by Amanuensis
Mat he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Amanuensis said: Noted that you have no guesses for which kill was the elim's Oh yeah sorry xD I was actually leaning Ash because I was curious if some behind the scenes things + Stick claiming to be in touch with a Lurcher meant that the elims figured out Ash was one. Your idea makes... arguably more sense though :P. The thing with that MB theory though, for me at least, is why didn't they kill Fifth over Ash? Fifth was much more of a counterwagon than Ash was, since his formed late and had less reasoning behind it.
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Oh yeah sorry xD I was actually leaning Ash because I was curious if some behind the scenes things + Stick claiming to be in touch with a Lurcher meant that the elims figured out Ash was one. Your idea makes... arguably more sense though :P. The thing with that MB theory though, for me at least, is why didn't they kill Fifth over Ash? Fifth was much more of a counterwagon than Ash was, since his formed late and had less reasoning behind it. My guess would be they had v!Fifth credences. But I do suppose this could have been an e!Mistborn using Duralumin/Steel and either Fifth is elim or they wanted to frame Fifth as elim. But in that case, I feel they would use the one-time-triple-kill to just wipe out the biggest threats, not help narrow our targets for today
Stick. she/her Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Xino was the elim kill, they were going for a low-info kill. Haven’t caught up to the thread, will do so in a bit
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 I can't tell you how many times I wondered why Ash hasn't posted today. Yes. I knew he was killed.
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I can't tell you how many times I wondered why Ash hasn't posted today. Yes. I knew he was killed. Hey, at least we got that sweet sweet green text.
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, The Known Novel said: Hey, at least we got that sweet sweet green text. Red text would be sweeter
Stick. she/her Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Kasimir said: @_Stick_ - Now that the After Mat is posted, I can come out and say it. You yourself observed in LG92 that JNV's differential engagement seems like some amount of tell. And we watched JNV get sussed despite that tell showing up in LG92. So I'm not sure why you don't think it's worth going off here. Not saying I hope for it because in a way, it is a terrible thing to hope for, but I suppose "I can read you later" is a very pragmatic take to why preferring one player in PoE over another. Bip - why Fadran over Fifth? I actually do still think JNV is suspicious. For one, they are/were way too bothered about my one vote. And by bothered I mean they brought it up (both last cycle and referenced it again this cycle), deeming it worthy enough to respond to. Given that my vote was pretty baseless and gut-reliant then, that response is bugging me. And secondly, their post from this cycle reminds me of LG89!JNV (also it is devoid of a quokka pic?:0). I voted for them C1 cuz it was C1 and Kas you know what I base my D1 votes on. If they aren't even slightly village to me, I'll vote for them. The way I then prioritise the votes is gut-based. This response applies to your Ash question too. 2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: He's just charging up my porch powers. So Stick and Kas have both been somewhat adamant in my PMs with them that TKN is village. Kas's method of reasoning seems to be consistent with how I think v!him approaches things. I'm not really sure about Stick though. It seems like quite an odd hill to want to die on during D1 over someone who didn't really contribute a lot of content (directly, at least). But I'm also not sure that is something the elims would do. I was literally the only TKN voter that stuck to my guns (surprising, given that Ardalan would have taken a bribe), so he wasn't really in danger. On the flip side, if we are in an e!TKN world then it makes sense to try and stop anyone from coming back and reconsidering him. And of course, this is relevant because Stick, TKN, and Mat are the only living players that vote on 2-person side trains, so I feel like there are decent odds on of them is elim. So I guess I'll vote Stick for now. TKN is village! Unless paired with Kas, TKN is not evil. Spoiler It'll be hilarious if he is though. 2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Says the person on a side train. You were also on a side train xD Edited February 23, 2023 by _Stick_ typo
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 We're only anticipating 2 starting elims and a single convert right?
Amanuensis he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) TKN Edited February 23, 2023 by Amanuensis
Mat he/him Posted February 23, 2023 Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: We're only anticipating 2 starting elims and a single convert right? Depending on the roles on both sides, I could see 3 starting elims with a single convert. The ratios there aren't totally outlandish. xino
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